PDA

View Full Version : Elections This is getting ugly for the Democrats


alnorth
08-25-2010, 11:45 PM
Not sure if there's much to discuss or debate, I just wanted to comment on the coming election. One of my favorite sites is the Cook political report.

http://cookpolitical.com/

I hadn't checked it for a few weeks, but he got my attention when he recently moved the 3rd congressional district of Iowa (my district, Des Moines) from Likely Dem all the way up to a pure toss-up. This is a nice little microcosm of what may happen in November, so I'll briefly talk about it.

Leonard Boswell has been the representative here forever (since 1997), and he has been very popular in past elections. When Bush defeated Gore, he won re-election by 29 points. In the 4 elections since, it has been closer, but he still won by 8, 10, 5 (I remember that one, he drew a very tough and popular republican opponent), and 14 points. This year he's up against some random run-of-the-mill state senator, looks like a nice qualified guy who isn't completely nuts, but he's the kind of Republican that Boswell handled easily in prior years. He is in serious danger of losing this one.

The republicans need to grab 39 seats in the house to gain control, which even though it is normally hard, I think most of us sort of expect that. However, where before the predictions were a narrow GOP seat advantage or maybe a couple seat Pelosi majority at worst, now there's an outside chance of a massive win way more than 1994 to give the GOP a decent seat lead.

Ignoring Safe seats, Cook has 44 uncompetitive seats that are still close enough to keep an eye on. The dems are defending 34 of them, and 4 of those are dem seats that have already flipped all the way to non-competitive "likely GOP". There are 76 seats that are leaners and toss-ups. Democrats are defending 68 of them, republicans only 8. The safe seats are roughly even (GOP has 161, Dems 154)

Hell, even Charles Djou in Hawaii is a toss-up. remember him? Special election in Obama's vacation home district, 3-way race, he got fewer votes than the two democrats who split the vote, so everyone pretty much said "have fun with your short vacation in D.C., dont get too comfortable because you can't win in this district!" It is now getting so bad for the dems, Cook thinks he actually has a chance of winning a full term.

Then you look at the Senate and you have toss-ups all over the place. Barbara Boxer could lose. Reid could lose (though I still think Angle blows it) Russ Feingold in WI was moved all the way from safe dem to toss-up. It is even getting interesting in Connecticut, where I assume the GOP candidate (former WWE CEO Linda McMahan) will probably run and have run against her some of the most entertaining commercials in the country. There are enough senate seats in play or already likely GOP takeovers where they could afford to lose a couple. If they run most of the table we'll have a split senate or 1-2 vote GOP majority, which was unthinkable a few months ago.

Chief Henry
08-26-2010, 02:49 AM
Boswell started out being an "aw shucks" "daggummit" hayshaker type of a politician.

It didn't take him long to vote almost identical to Iowa's liberal US Senator Tom Harkin.
I'm guessing Harkin took him aside swiftly and told him exactly what he had to do.

The Mad Crapper
08-31-2010, 07:26 AM
The poll stealing the headlines this morning is from Gallup, and for good reason: it gives the Republicans a whopping 10-point lead on the generic ballot. This is, in fact, an all-time record for the Republicans: Gallup has been conducting this survey for almost 70 years, and Republicans have never managed to have quite that large of an edge before.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/08/31/the-democrats-new-normal/

Brainiac
08-31-2010, 04:20 PM
The Democrats are going to get crushed in November.

HerculesRockefell
08-31-2010, 04:43 PM
Someone might want to let Charlie Cook know that the Arkansas Senate seat isn't a toss up. Boozman's RCP average is +28 and it's been April since there's been a poll where he led Blanche Lincoln by only single digits.

That race is over.

I know there's also people who follow the polling that question some of Cook's toss-ups in the House, because the R candidates are consistently polling ahead by 5 and sometime even 10 points. Those aren't pure toss-ups, those become leans.

alnorth
08-31-2010, 04:55 PM
Someone might want to let Charlie Cook know that the Arkansas Senate seat isn't a toss up. Boozman's RCP average is +28 and it's been April since there's been a poll where he led Blanche Lincoln by only single digits.

That race is over.

I know there's also people who follow the polling that question some of Cook's toss-ups in the House, because the R candidates are consistently polling ahead by 5 and sometime even 10 points. Those aren't pure toss-ups, those become leans.

You probably don't understand what Cook is trying to do. Most polls that you are probably used to are trying to answer the question "who would win right now?" He's trying to figure out who will win in November. If a challenger is up by 5 now, you cant really call that a lean his way because the commercials haven't even hit yet. He tends to be more reactive when it gets closer to election day because then "who will win now" is pretty close to "who will win in november", but there's still over a couple months left and most candidates haven't really begun to spend money. He does not like to "change his mind" at all by calling it one way too early then being forced to take it back to toss up when it tightens. When Cook says you are toast, then you are toast.

So given that background and how cautious he is, when it looks bad for the dems 2 months ahead of the elections it is a total freaking disaster for them.

HerculesRockefell
08-31-2010, 05:28 PM
Individual polls are snapshots of who would win if the election were held today. Multiple polls looked at over a period of time shows trends.

That's why you see Patty Murray and Russ Feingold have been moved into the "Toss Up" category. Both were thought to be safe, even in this cycle, but current polling has caused Cook to rate both races as toss ups.

Lincoln has been dead in the water for nearly 6 months. That race isn't a toss up. The national committees aren't throwing money into it and you aren't going to see very many polls either because it's a waste of money. Anyone who follows politics knows she's gone, and if current polling numbers are reflective of election day, it will go down as one of the biggest losses ever by a sitting Senator.

And like I said with the trends, if there's a month or 6 weeks of polling that shows Candidate A not only increasing his lead, but consistently holding a 5-10 pt lead over Candidate B, that race is a lean. Labor Day might be when the majority of voters get serious, but at the same time, if Candidate B is an incumbent whose voters know him, there's not much he can do at this point to introduce himself to his constituents. They either know and like him, or they don't.

Cook is trying to sell a product, it's a disservice to those who pay him for it to have races that don't currently look that close rated as "Toss Ups" simply because what might be a healthy lead at this point for one candidate might tighten around election day.

alnorth
08-31-2010, 05:52 PM
Cook is trying to sell a product, it's a disservice to those who pay him for it to have races that don't currently look that close rated as "Toss Ups" simply because what might be a healthy lead at this point for one candidate might tighten around election day.

It is a disservice to people who want snapshots if the election is hypothetically held today. I'll agree with you that he's being a little too careful on Arkansas, but aside from that, I'm just not going to get excited about a challenger holding a small lead for two different polls in 3 months. (which is often the case with house races, they dont get polled that often, and they really dont spend money until October)

The Mad Crapper
09-01-2010, 05:57 AM
The Democrats are going to get crushed in November.

They walked in lockstep over a cliff with Pelosi, B.O. and Reid.

The stimulus was a porkfest and a massive waste of a trillion dollars; they rammed a healthcare bill down the throats of a constituency who overwhelmingly said no; real unemployment is at 17%, and B.O. and Madame Michelle party like rock stars.

Shame on them and may they all burn in Hell.

Calcountry
09-01-2010, 06:33 AM
I told you so.

Bwana
09-01-2010, 04:21 PM
*SNICKER*

Calcountry
09-01-2010, 04:27 PM
*SNICKER*Just wait till election night, I have threads from the last election.

Bwana
09-01-2010, 06:09 PM
Just wait till election night, I have threads from the last election.

Yeah, it can't come soon enough.

The Mad Crapper
09-02-2010, 07:08 AM
Just wait till election night, I have threads from the last election.

After the R's take back congress, within 24 hours all the moonbats will be complaining about how bad the economy is after spending the past two years telling everybody to "give B.O. time".

Silly moonbats. ROFL

ROYC75
09-02-2010, 09:50 AM
I wish it was November, right now.

Then skip 2011, go right to 2012.

|Zach|
09-02-2010, 03:29 PM
I wish it was November, right now.

Then skip 2011, go right to 2012.

Are we going to have to hear about how you are a moderate for this election cycle again? Or are you just going to skip that act.

HerculesRockefell
09-02-2010, 03:33 PM
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2010/09/02/the_crystal_balls_labor_day_predictions_106988.html

Larry Sabato's Labor Day Predictions:
House: As high as R+47
Senate: R+8
Governorships: R+8

SNR
09-02-2010, 06:33 PM
Are we going to have to hear about how you are a moderate for this election cycle again? Or are you just going to skip that act.I don't think I've ever heard Roy declare his political beliefs as moderate. Really, the same with Pete. Expressing disappointment with the Republicans as a right-leaning voter during the 2008 election cycle was quite common. Patteuaueuaue (I'm not going to try to spell it correctly) did it all the time in 2008, yet I don't see anybody accusing him of calling himself a moderate.

The Mad Crapper
09-03-2010, 06:29 AM
The American Action Forum has completed its round of surveys in key West Coast House districts. Their previous rounds in other parts of the country have shown generally good news for Republicans, but I think we can call today’s numbers the nightmare scenario for Democrats.

Among their collective findings:

* Voters say the country is on the wrong track by a nearly three-to-one margin. Sixty-eight percent of the likely voters in these districts say the country is off on the wrong track, while just 24 percent say the country is heading in the right direction.
* A plurality of voters prefers a Republican on the generic ballot test. While each of these ten districts have Democratic incumbents, voters in these districts prefer a Republican to a Democrat as their next congressman by a 41 to 34 percent margin.
* President Obama and Speaker Pelosi are both viewed unfavorably in these districts. Voters in these districts give Barack Obama a 44 to 51 percent favorable to unfavorable rating and give Nancy Pelosi a 29 to 58 percent rating.
* A majority of the likely voters in these districts opposes the health care reform plan. Voters oppose the new law by a 53 to 39 percent margin, including 45 percent who strongly oppose it.

In the individual districts, they found…

AZ-1: “Despite Representative Ann Kirkpatrick having 95 percent name ID (with a 42 to 37 percent favorable-unfavorable rating) compared to challenger Paul Gosar’s 46 percent (23 to 6 percent favorable), Gosar leads on the ballot by a 47 to 41 percent margin.”

AZ-5: “Despite Representative Harry Mitchell having 97 percent name ID (with a 42 to 46 percent favorable-unfavorable rating) compared to challenger David Schweikert’s 77 percent (33 to 18 percent favorable), Schweikert leads on the ballot by a 50 to 44 percent margin.”

AZ-8: “Despite Representative Gabrielle Giffords having 99 percent name ID (with a 52 to 41 percent favorable-unfavorable rating) compared to challenger Jesse Kelly’s 78 percent (33 to 25 percent favorable), Giffords and Kelly are currently tied on the ballot at 46 percent each.”

CA-11: “Despite Representative Jerry McNerney having 93 percent name ID (with a 41 to 34 percent favorable-unfavorable rating) compared to challenger David Harmer’s 47 percent (19 to 8 percent favorable), Harmer currently leads McNerney on the ballot by a razor-thin 45 to 44 percent margin.”

CA-47: “Despite Representative Loretta Sanchez having 96 percent name ID (with a 46 to 44 percent favorable-unfavorable rating) compared to challenger Van Tran’s 67 percent (26 to 18 percent favorable), Sanchez leads on the ballot by just a 45 to 43 percent margin.”

CO-3: “Despite Representative John Salazar having 98 percent name ID (with a 45 to 44 percent favorable-unfavorable rating) compared to challenger Scott Tipton’s 73 percent (28 to 19 percent favorable), Tipton leads on the ballot by a 51 to 43 percent margin.”

CO-4: “Despite Representative Betsey Markey having 98 percent name ID (with a 37 to 50 percent favorable-unfavorable rating) compared to challenger Cory Gardner’s 57 percent (23 to 13 percent favorable), Gardner leads on the ballot by a 50 to 39 percent margin.”

NM-1: “Despite Representative Martin Heinrich having 97 percent name ID (with a 46 to 39 percent favorable-unfavorable rating) compared to challenger Jon Barela’s 48 percent (20 to 11 percent favorable), Heinrich is under 50 percent on the ballot, leading Barela by a 49 to 42 percent margin.”

[Note that this is what qualifies for ‘good news’ for Democrats, an incumbent below 50 with a 7 percentage point lead.]

NV-3: “Despite Representative Dina Titus having 99 percent name ID (with a 46 to 46 percent favorable-unfavorable rating) compared to challenger Joe Heck’s 78 percent (32 to 21 percent favorable), Heck leads Titus on the ballot by a 48 to 45 percent margin.”

OR-5: “Despite Representative Kurt Schrader having 83 percent name ID (with a 34 to 24 percent favorable-unfavorable rating) compared to challenger Scott Bruun’s 40 percent (11 to 7 percent favorable), Schrader is under 50 percent on the ballot, leading Bruun by a 44 to 36 percent margin.”

http://www.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/245458/summarize-bunches-and-bunches-house-democrat-incumbents-trail

alnorth
09-03-2010, 12:09 PM
Some updates today from Cook.

Senate:

West Virginia likely D -> Lean D
Ohio Tossup -> Lean R
Arkansas Tossup -> Lean R

House:

5 seats Likely D -> Lean D
5 seats Lean D -> Tossup

The Mad Crapper
09-04-2010, 03:33 PM
Obastard: The least-experienced person in any room he walks into.

http://i931.photobucket.com/albums/ad158/FrankRob/FR_BHOMoron.jpg

alnorth
09-04-2010, 10:44 PM
Welp, Rasmussen now has Reid at 50%. It has been a long slow climb for him, but barring something unexpected he's got a good chance of surviving. Out of 4 different polling firms who publicly release results, none of them have Angle winning anymore.

Thats too bad, this should have been a very easy pickup. It is always nice to scalp a leader, but the NV tea party nominated a crazy woman.

In more positive news from CA, Fiorina has a couple points on Boxer in a new poll. The GOP might also keep the governor's mansion too, since the Dems apparently nominated an old unlikable fool for governor.

The Mad Crapper
09-05-2010, 01:10 PM
The first death panels resulting from the Health Care Takeover Act of 2009 will be for the fools who passed it.

LMAO

go bowe
09-06-2010, 01:34 PM
I don't think I've ever heard Roy declare his political beliefs as moderate. Really, the same with Pete. Expressing disappointment with the Republicans as a right-leaning voter during the 2008 election cycle was quite common. Patteuaueuaue (I'm not going to try to spell it correctly) did it all the time in 2008, yet I don't see anybody accusing him of calling himself a moderate.accusing?

is moderate becoming a pejorative like liberal?

SNR
09-06-2010, 03:35 PM
accusing?

is moderate becoming a pejorative like liberal?It is. People make fun of Pete all the time for supposedly calling himself "moderate".

The Mad Crapper
10-01-2010, 12:23 PM
http://www.moonbattery.com/poor-barry.gif

The Mad Crapper
10-04-2010, 03:33 PM
GOP Well Positioned Among Likely Midterm VotersVoting preferences remain close among registered votersby Frank Newport, Jeffrey M. Jones, and Lydia SaadPRINCETON, NJ -- Gallup's generic ballot for Congress among registered voters currently shows Republicans with 46% of the vote and Democrats with 43%, similar to the 46% to 46% tie reported a week ago. However, in Gallup's first estimates among likely voters, based on polling from Sept. 23-Oct. 3, Republicans have a double-digit advantage under two separate turnout scenarios.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/143363/GOP-Positioned-Among-Likely-Midterm-Voters.aspx

The Mad Crapper
11-01-2010, 10:02 AM
http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/61ZXhOE0ZSL._AA300_.gif

chiefsnorth
11-01-2010, 10:20 AM
Some polls and some turnout models seem to suggest that the gains might be larger than anticipated. One has to wonder if the Dems are going to win any of the close races.

The Mad Crapper
11-01-2010, 10:25 AM
Some polls and some turnout models seem to suggest that the gains might be larger than anticipated. One has to wonder if the Dems are going to win any of the close races.

I am going to LMFAO if Christine O'Donnell wins.

ROFL

thecoffeeguy
11-01-2010, 10:39 AM
Some polls and some turnout models seem to suggest that the gains might be larger than anticipated. One has to wonder if the Dems are going to win any of the close races.

I read this morning that the Senate is really in play for the GOP now.

They originally thought 52 seats in the house, but now are talking about 62 seats in the house. :clap:


Grab the house, grab the senate... :D

Chief Henry
11-01-2010, 10:56 AM
The R's will get 80 seats in the house and Harry Reid will go down in NV. Californication will keep Boxer and the DEM thugs in Washington will once again screw the republican candidate as the hand count goes on for 2 weeks or more.

ROYC75
11-01-2010, 11:16 AM
Are we going to have to hear about how you are a moderate for this election cycle again? Or are you just going to skip that act.

Holy Cow, How did I miss this gem ? Act ? Why don't you act right instead of wrong.

I have never called myself anything other than a conservative. To me, I don't care if it's a R, a D or an I, if it's a conservative approach, I can almost always align myself with them somewhere. Now which candidate I choose is up to me..... Not for Zach to tell me how to vote.

Your whole problem stems around the fact that I am a conservative and I do not like dirty, sleazy politics in any way, shape or form.

Your biggest problem is I didn't like the lying Senator from Illinois that won on a lie and deflect campaign and energized a bunch of immature kids, with the minority to vote on political matters they knew nothing about. Hey, look at me, I'm Hip, I'm going to be the First Black President of the Untied States Of America.

Before you go getting the race card involved, I could care less if his parents were green alien from mars that came here 50 years ago. Like I said,If he is an American and can I can align my beliefs with his / hers, so be it.

ROYC75
11-01-2010, 11:19 AM
I am going to LMFAO if Christine O'Donnell wins.

ROFL

I would laugh as well ..........ROFL and then I would be thinking, she is probably just a 1 term gal.:doh!:

I just don't see her getting enough people to vote out of Delaware, too many liberal loons and D's there.

The Mad Crapper
11-01-2010, 03:26 PM
I would laugh as well ..........ROFL and then I would be thinking, she is probably just a 1 term gal.:doh!:

I just don't see her getting enough people to vote out of Delaware, too many liberal loons and D's there.

We don't need the Senate so it's not that big a deal. I think any D that still has a job on November 3rd is going to be in a state of shellshock and won't know whether to duck or piss their pants every time they hear a doorbell ring.

patteeu
11-01-2010, 03:29 PM
We don't need the Senate so it's not that big a deal. I think any D that still has a job on November 3rd is going to be in a state of shellshock and won't know whether to duck or piss their pants every time they hear a doorbell ring.

Maybe a few of them will retire with a mea culpa.

Calcountry
11-01-2010, 04:01 PM
After the R's take back congress, within 24 hours all the moonbats will be complaining about how bad the economy is after spending the past two years telling everybody to "give B.O. time".

Silly moonbats. ROFLAll I know, is that there were some pretty damn smart analysts in here, writing off the conservaties, gloating in the glow of a fluke win. They lied to the people, told them, Obama is a pragmatic centrist, when all along he was a cut from the Marxian cloth.

You can fool all of the people some of the time, and some of the people all of the time, but you can't fool all of the people all of the time.

By no means, should the conservatives think we are on easy streat and let up. This is but the first election of many. If the Rhino's like McCain and Murkowski and Charlie Crisp don't bet it, they will be politically burnt to a crisp. Or they will Rust like Rust Feingold, the only Gold that will Rust.