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View Full Version : General Politics Why generic polls are trash...


oldandslow
09-08-2010, 08:22 AM
Just last week it was the end of the world for the dems...

... someone had posted the gallup poll showing the dems down by 10% in a generic poll...

Now it is the REPUBS have peaked too soon!!!!

the poll has them dead even...

http://www.gallup.com/poll/142892/Parties-Tied-Generic-Ballot.aspx

What this means is generic polls are garbage...

Mr. O'neil was right - all politics are local and it matters who is on the ballot.

My prediction for the November...the R's take back the house and the dems hold the senate.

My Spin for November...In this political and economic climate, if the Repubs couldn't take both houses of congress they have failed miserably.

So work on getting those expectations up, repubs...I smile with post I see on here that claims the death of the dems and a complete realignment during the next election.

blaise
09-08-2010, 08:27 AM
Yes, Republicans have failed miserably. And just a couple of years ago the Dems elected a President, and seemingly had the whole country on their side as they trumpeted the death of the Republican party. In just two years they've aliented a large portion of the voters they had. There's enough miserable failure to go around.

chiefsnorth
09-08-2010, 09:40 AM
Gallup has a pretty well established history. They have not showed things this bad for the democrats ever, and they have been polling the generic ballot since 1942. The previous high was Republicans +6. now it says Republicans +8.

You are right about one thing. It is not terribly accurate - it tends to underpredict Republican gains (5 of the last 6 elections anyway)

The Obamas are going to lose about 45 seats in the house, the House is probably a lost cause. The question is only whether they can snatch the Senate from the wreckage of Obama's presidency

HonestChieffan
09-08-2010, 10:10 AM
Better said Congress has failed us. R or D failure is suckage for the country

fan4ever
09-08-2010, 10:11 AM
The Repubs have peaked too soon? This November will have less to do with Republicans and more to do with Democrats.

BucEyedPea
09-08-2010, 10:25 AM
The Repubs have peaked too soon? This November will have less to do with Republicans and more to do with Democrats.

Just like our national election of 2008! Which showed the lessor of two evils is still evil.

Calcountry
09-08-2010, 06:33 PM
When Bush sploded the deficit, who was the chairman of the House appropriations committee? Was it an evil Republican in 2007?

Then BO "steps into the plate", and it's like, DAMN, where did all this money come from??? Budget??? WTF???

alnorth
09-08-2010, 07:14 PM
if the Repubs couldn't take both houses of congress they have failed miserably.

This statement is ridiculous. It can be repaired by replacing "both houses of congress" with "the house". 63 senate seats are not up for election. The Dems start out with a 40/23 (counting both independants as dems) advantage before we even begin. Another 14 or so republican seats and 6 democrat seats are rock-solid safe (we are talking Gillibrand, Schumer, Inouye, etc those kinds of dems in those kinds of states aren't losing unless someone is dead or someone stole something).

So, we really start out with about a 46-37 advantage in the senate before we even begin, and I'm not even giving them california, WV, or Connecticut. We basically went from "no, there's no way the Dems lose the senate, it is basically impossible" a year or so ago to "holy effing crap, they might actually do it! Unbelievable! This would be a history-making swing!".

Lets not get crazy here, taking the senate would still be an incredible accomplishment. They need to take all 3 or 4 seats barely leaning their way, and they need to run the table on about 10 out of 11 competitive seats. If they drop any of those, they have to steal one of a couple seats that is still leaning the dems way even in this climate.