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View Full Version : Chiefs Chiefs vs. 49ers Win Probability


DaFace
09-21-2010, 05:35 PM
I thought this was interesting last week, so here it is again. I may do this weekly unless people start getting tired of it.

Anyway, what are the chances of a Chiefs win over the 49ers this week?

LaChapelle
09-21-2010, 05:37 PM
I wasn't overly confident with sunday's win
kinda - okay

keg in kc
09-21-2010, 05:38 PM
I think it's 50-50 this week. SF is a better team on paper, but it's a home game.

Fritz88
09-21-2010, 05:39 PM
Hai

http://www.dyslexia-adults.com/frankgore.jpg

Pestilence
09-21-2010, 05:43 PM
30%

If it was in SF.....I'd give it 20%. This is going to be our defense's first real test against a real running game. Gore is going to tear us a new one and Willis is going to kill Cassel.

milkman
09-21-2010, 05:46 PM
I think it's 50-50 this week. SF is a better team on paper, but it's a home game.

If Arrowhead is sold out, and the fans can generate some noise, they can frustrate Smith and disrupt their passing game, which makes stopping Gore the focus, which itself is still a tall order.

Weis is going to have to be a little more creative on offense, and the Matt Cassel that showed up in the second half of the Browns game needs to show up at the start of this game.

I'd say 50-50 is about right.

LaChapelle
09-21-2010, 05:47 PM
The weak link is SF's seconday
Chiefs weak link is Cassel
---------------

Art Vader
09-21-2010, 05:48 PM
49%

rambleonthruthefog
09-21-2010, 05:50 PM
Willis is going to kill Cassel.

crossing fingers

RNR
09-21-2010, 05:58 PM
I always lean towards the team that finds a way to win. After watching a team that finds a way to lose I count wins not stats. It sucks but the Chiefs are just winning and the 49ers are just losing

mlyonsd
09-21-2010, 06:03 PM
Last week I picked 50-50. Since we lost Charles this week I went 30-70.

KCtotheSB
09-21-2010, 06:04 PM
40% and that's under the impression that Arrowhead will be rockin'.
I wouldn't say the 49ers are coming in with their season on the line, but they certainly are going to be much more focused on a full game effort.

Hug it Out Dan
09-21-2010, 06:05 PM
well being that we could either win or lose. i chose 50/50

MadMax
09-21-2010, 06:10 PM
30%

If it was in SF.....I'd give it 20%. This is going to be our defense's first real test against a real running game. Gore is going to tear us a new one and Willis is going to kill Cassel.





Let us pray... I pray for a win , but I HATE Cassel as our QB, he is a whiny turd...

tmax63
09-21-2010, 06:11 PM
I said 50-50. SF is a better team but they are suffering what the Chiefs suffered last week. Mon. night game -short week of practice, going into a hostile environment, less time to heal, letdown after big game etc.

CaliforniaChief
09-21-2010, 06:11 PM
I'm sorta where RNR is. Finding ways to win builds momentum. Late in a close game, the team that's been winning is more confident that they'll find the way to win again. Opposite with teams that have been losing.

Niners in a short week, deflated from a heart-breaking loss...Chiefs coming into a bye afterwards gives us the edge.

Superior coaching and a mistake-prone 49ers team gives us the slight edge.

60%.

Bane
09-21-2010, 06:12 PM
I went with 70% again,but I expect this to be a very tough game for us.

Hog Farmer
09-21-2010, 06:25 PM
40% Cassel sucks even at home.

Bane
09-21-2010, 06:29 PM
40% Cassel sucks even at home.

Look out man! He may go psycho and throw for 200 yards and 2 TD's and wooooo Arrowhead into a massive frenzy!!!:thumb:

Matt mother****ing Cassel baby!! YEAH!!!!!

:banghead:

SNR
09-21-2010, 06:30 PM
I'm not deeply concerned about our defense against the San Fran offense.

I am, however, deeply concerned about our offense against the San Fran defense.

It's gonna be Jamaal Charles time. Thomas Jones doesn't match up well. Patrick Willis will hold him to .000000001 YPC. Our coaches need to acknowledge this or we will suck all day.

We're also gonna need a good game out of Cassel against that defense, and I don't know where it's going to come from. Maybe a good game exists far up his ass somewhere, but it's his job to pull it out. He's got the work ethic, but I don't think he has the attitude.

KC Jones
09-21-2010, 06:38 PM
I'm not deeply concerned about our defense against the San Fran offense.

I am, however, deeply concerned about our offense against the San Fran defense.

It's gonna be Jamaal Charles time. Thomas Jones doesn't match up well. Patrick Willis will hold him to .000000001 YPC. Our coaches need to acknowledge this or we will suck all day.

We're also gonna need a good game out of Cassel against that defense, and I don't know where it's going to come from. Maybe a good game exists far up his ass somewhere, but it's his job to pull it out. He's got the work ethic, but I don't think he has the attitude.

I agree with you completely. If we're lucky, our ST play will help us win what promises to be a punt fest and maybe get us in FG range a couple of times.

Pasta Giant Meatball
09-21-2010, 06:59 PM
Don Criqui isn't calling this game. That makes everyone involved a winner.

DaneMcCloud
09-21-2010, 07:03 PM
I went with 70%.

SF will be coming off a tough, emotional loss on a short week. I'd imagine the Arrowhead will at least 80% of what is was during the MNF game and that should be enough to disorient Jimmy Raye and the 49ers offense.

I think Special Teams will probably ending up winning this game for the Chiefs.

16-13 Chiefs.

Bane
09-21-2010, 07:07 PM
I went with 70%.

SF will be coming off a tough, emotional loss on a short week. I'd imagine the Arrowhead will at least 80% of what is was during the MNF game and that should be enough to disorient Jimmy Raye and the 49ers offense.

I think Special Teams will probably ending up winning this game for the Chiefs.

16-13 Chiefs.

I feel another score on D coming as well.:thumb:
Our run D will get tested for sure.Gore is a fuggn monster!

tonyetony
09-21-2010, 07:12 PM
I love public polls. I knew someone would be down there spooning Knowmo's ass!!!

Pasta Giant Meatball
09-21-2010, 07:13 PM
I feel another score on D coming as well.:thumb:
Our run D will get tested for sure.Gore is a fuggn monster!

They've got some talented players, but I guarentee at Niner Planet they've got the same "confidence" in the QB position that those here have.

Three7s
09-21-2010, 07:18 PM
I'm not deeply concerned about our defense against the San Fran offense.

I am, however, deeply concerned about our offense against the San Fran defense.

It's gonna be Jamaal Charles time. Thomas Jones doesn't match up well. Patrick Willis will hold him to .000000001 YPC. Our coaches need to acknowledge this or we will suck all day.

We're also gonna need a good game out of Cassel against that defense, and I don't know where it's going to come from. Maybe a good game exists far up his ass somewhere, but it's his job to pull it out. He's got the work ethic, but I don't think he has the attitude.
You'll be disappointed, listening to an interview with Grunhard today on .810, he said that there is, certainly, something going on with the lack of playing time for Charles, and I doubt it'll end, barring a Thomas Jones injury.

That being the case, I'll go with 30%. Our idiotic coaching staff decides to keep our best player in 25% of the time, and Cassel sucks. They should beat us 17-13 or something.

SNR
09-21-2010, 07:28 PM
You'll be disappointed, listening to an interview with Grunhard today on .810, he said that there is, certainly, something going on with the lack of playing time for Charles, and I doubt it'll end, barring a Thomas Jones injury.

That being the case, I'll go with 30%. Our idiotic coaching staff decides to keep our best player in 25% of the time, and Cassel sucks. They should beat us 17-13 or something.As much as I distrust Haley, Weis, and Carthon to make the best decisions, I'll wait and see about this. Does Grunhard have a report about this or is he speculating just as much as we the fans are?

The Niners are a tough, fast, defense that close holes quickly and overpower offensive lines up front. It's obvious who the best option is to overcome that. There's film from last year, this year, and we have a coach in Weis who scours over this footage (at least according to the reports). I really hope they see this objective truth.

JD10367
09-21-2010, 07:34 PM
Last night's game went the best possible way for KC. SF played very well, which gives Haley plenty of ammo to scare the players with. SF lost, which will make them disappointed and questioning themselves. SF made stupid mistakes, which gives Chiefs fans reason to hope and believe there'll be more of the same. Throw in that it's at Arrowhead, Cassel is bound to play a little better, and Alex Smith is bound to play a little worse. You have two teams with stout D, good running games, and QBs who are questionable, but with those variables I think Chiefs win factor is 80%.

Bane
09-21-2010, 07:43 PM
Last night's game went the best possible way for KC. SF played very well, which gives Haley plenty of ammo to scare the players with. SF lost, which will make them disappointed and questioning themselves. SF made stupid mistakes, which gives Chiefs fans reason to hope and believe there'll be more of the same. Throw in that it's at Arrowhead, Cassel is bound to play a little better, and Alex Smith is bound to play a little worse. You have two teams with stout D, good running games, and QBs who are questionable, but with those variables I think Chiefs win factor is 80%.

Almost sounds like one of those good old fashioned 6-3 half time scores in the making.God I hope its nice!I'm betting Pioli/Haley has held Cassel back so he could unleash him upon the NFL world on a fair weathered day at Arrowhead and showcase his supreme skill set!YEAH!
Posted via Mobile Device

Three7s
09-21-2010, 07:45 PM
As much as I distrust Haley, Weis, and Carthon to make the best decisions, I'll wait and see about this. Does Grunhard have a report about this or is he speculating just as much as we the fans are?

The Niners are a tough, fast, defense that close holes quickly and overpower offensive lines up front. It's obvious who the best option is to overcome that. There's film from last year, this year, and we have a coach in Weis who scours over this footage (at least according to the reports). I really hope they see this objective truth.
I think Grunhard was just giving his opinion on the situation. Grunhard went on to mention that Weis might not even know which RB is in or not, which is ridiculous. If it's Carthon who's responsible for this, he needs to be fired.

If anyone missed the interview and wants to check it out, just go to 810whb's website. (would post link, but can't due to noob status)

BillSelfsTrophycase
09-21-2010, 07:56 PM
Smith vs Casshole

What a barnburner this should be

Wallcrawler
09-21-2010, 08:07 PM
Berry is going to have to be on his A game this week. Hes monstrous against the run, but those deep bombs have made the scoreboards look better than they should have these past 2 games.

Concentrating too hard on Gore and trying to get a jump on him could cost us a big play again this week.

I think the Chiefs win if the crowd is anything like they were in the Monday Nighter. What we cant have is to have that stadium go quiet after a slow start, which is sure to come.

SNR
09-21-2010, 08:13 PM
Berry is going to have to be on his A game this week. Hes monstrous against the run, but those deep bombs have made the scoreboards look better than they should have these past 2 games.

Concentrating too hard on Gore and trying to get a jump on him could cost us a big play again this week.

I think the Chiefs win if the crowd is anything like they were in the Monday Nighter. What we cant have is to have that stadium go quiet after a slow start, which is sure to come.Somebody's gotta cover Vernon Davis. We don't have a good coverage linebacker. We'll have to double/triple team him like we did Gates in the second half of the San Diego game. That's gonna open up some holes in our defense. If Berry eliminates mistakes, we might be able to get by.

It's not like Jimmy Raye is a great offensive mind or anything, but he's more than capable of finding a great game plan for a big fatass athletic TE. We've seen him do it before with Gonzalez in 1999/2000.

DaFace
09-21-2010, 09:15 PM
Wow...a nice pretty bell curve this week. It makes the stats geek in me giddy.

Direckshun
09-21-2010, 09:19 PM
A slightly optimistic Planet.

Been a while.

J Diddy
09-21-2010, 09:21 PM
Somebody's gotta cover Vernon Davis. We don't have a good coverage linebacker. We'll have to double/triple team him like we did Gates in the second half of the San Diego game. That's gonna open up some holes in our defense. If Berry eliminates mistakes, we might be able to get by.

It's not like Jimmy Raye is a great offensive mind or anything, but he's more than capable of finding a great game plan for a big fatass athletic TE. We've seen him do it before with Gonzalez in 1999/2000.


I disagree DJ is better than average in pass defense.

Rain Man
09-22-2010, 08:46 AM
If the crowd can be really loud, then Jimmy Raye will start making up fake plays and we'll win.

I really liked the 49ers last year, and think that Singletary is building them in a Marty Schottenheimer manner. Defense, running, and the potential to make the playoffs and then lose in the first round perennially. I haven't seen them yet to see why they're so inconsistent, but at first glance it seems like they and the Chiefs share some of the same strengths and weaknesses so far this year: good running, bad passing, and a talented defense (though the 49ers are giving up more points so far). I think we can win it with home field advantage, the Jimmy Raye effect of bad playcalling even when he can say them correctly, and better special teams.

DonTellMeShowMe
09-22-2010, 08:48 AM
A real battle of the QBs this will be

-about 50-50 split right now should be fair....

-hoping for a good game

boogblaster
09-22-2010, 08:48 AM
if arrowhead is rocking again it should be a win

DonTellMeShowMe
09-22-2010, 08:49 AM
Hai

http://www.dyslexia-adults.com/frankgore.jpg


Hey....;)

http://www.midwestsportsfans.com/wp-content/uploads/2009/08/matt-cassel-chiefs.jpg

bevischief
09-22-2010, 08:52 AM
Last night's game went the best possible way for KC. SF played very well, which gives Haley plenty of ammo to scare the players with. SF lost, which will make them disappointed and questioning themselves. SF made stupid mistakes, which gives Chiefs fans reason to hope and believe there'll be more of the same. Throw in that it's at Arrowhead, Cassel is bound to play a little better, and Alex Smith is bound to play a little worse. You have two teams with stout D, good running games, and QBs who are questionable, but with those variables I think Chiefs win factor is 80%.

I agree but I think the win factor is closer to 60%.

King_Chief_Fan
09-22-2010, 08:58 AM
If the crowd can be really loud, then Jimmy Raye will start making up fake plays and we'll win.

I really liked the 49ers last year, and think that Singletary is building them in a Marty Schottenheimer manner. Defense, running, and the potential to make the playoffs and then lose in the first round perennially. I haven't seen them yet to see why they're so inconsistent, but at first glance it seems like they and the Chiefs share some of the same strengths and weaknesses so far this year: good running, bad passing, and a talented defense (though the 49ers are giving up more points so far). I think we can win it with home field advantage, the Jimmy Raye effect of bad playcalling even when he can say them correctly, and better special teams.

yes...but I am a little concerned about that fast defense of the 9ers. Cassel needs 5 full seconds where 9ers were given Brees about 2.

38yrsfan
09-22-2010, 09:02 AM
80%, same as last week and the same reason - the Chiefs are tired of losing.

I wouldn't be surprised to see Cassel pulled if he doesn't perform.

Sofa King
09-22-2010, 09:05 AM
30%

If it was in SF.....I'd give it 20%. This is going to be our defense's first real test against a real running game. Gore is going to tear us a new one and Willis is going to kill Cassel.

http://www.nichesbythenumbers.com/images/fingers_crossed.jpg

Frazod
09-22-2010, 09:06 AM
I'll go with 60% because it's a home game. The number would be higher if our QB didn't totally suck ass.

Pestilence
09-22-2010, 09:53 AM
Here is a writeup on the game from Walterfootball.com

SAN FRANCISCO OFFENSE: As I wrote in my highly controversial 2010 NFL Power Rankings (Buccaneers and Chiefs fans were pissed on the forums), I'm a believer in Alex Smith. Smith had a solid game overall, but really shined in San Francisco's final drive, going 5-of-6 for 63 yards with 24 rushing yards on the final possession.

Now, the question remains, can Smith repeat what he did against the Saints? I think so. The Chiefs have a solid pass rush, but their secondary currently has some issues. Eric Berry particularly has been unimpressive; he missed tackles in the opener and blew a coverage that resulted in a touchdown last week. I'm not saying that Berry's going to be a bust or anything, but I expected much more right away from the consensus top-three prospect from the 2010 NFL Draft.

One advantage Kansas City has here is in the running game. Frank Gore trampled the Saints on Monday night, but will have a much more difficult time against a Chiefs defense that has allowed just 3.6 yards per carry in the first two weeks.

KANSAS CITY OFFENSE: There are two reasons why I still have the Chiefs in my bottom 10. The first is Matt Cassel, who has completed just 52 percent of his passes in two weeks. Cassel is atrocious and isn't nearly good enough to keep defenses somewhat honest. The 49ers will concentrate on stopping Kansas City's ground attack, forcing Cassel to beat them.

And that brings me to the second reason why Kansas City's 2-0 start is a farce. Todd Haley is a reh-TARD who doesn't understand the concept of giving the ball to his best player. I've written about this ad nauseum for the past year and a half, and it really amazes me how he still has a job.

Last week, Thomas Jones had 23 touches to Jamaal Charles' 12. Jones turned those touches into 88 yards (83 rushing, 5 receiving), while Charles was able to compile 76 yards (49 rushing, 27 receiving). That's correct - Charles nearly had as many yards as Jones despite getting half as many touches.

Regardless of who's carrying the ball, it'll be tough sledding for Kansas City, as the 49ers surrender just 2.8 yards per rush.

RECAP: The 49ers are the better team and would be able to win under normal circumstances.


http://imagemacros.files.wordpress.com/2009/06/lol_wut1.jpg

rambleonthruthefog
09-22-2010, 10:00 AM
Todd Haley is a reh-TARD

while he makes a lot of good points, this is not one of them. regardless of the opponent, TH has the kansas city chiefs at 2-0 playing hard as hell, and believing they are winners. you read that right folks, the kansas city chiefs at 2-0 with a real possibility of being 3-0.
i went with 40% because the 49ers are a better overall football team. we are better coached and have a true home field advantage. qb play is a push.