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Dinny Blues
09-26-2010, 07:02 PM
3-0 teams make the playoffs 75% of the time?

What the heck? The Chiefs?

Playoffs?!!!!1111!!!!1

Where is cdcox? Can this be?

Dinny

keg in kc
09-26-2010, 07:23 PM
I shouldn't say this after such a glorious win, but I still think it's more likely that SF makes the playoffs (3% chance historically), even though they're already two games behind Seattle. I don't think there are any "gimmie" games in our division, whereas they've got two each against Arizona and the Rams. And San Diego will probably do what they always do, start like this and end up winning a dozen games anyway.

But I didn't think they'd start 3-0 and I hope they keep on surprising me all year long.

cdcox
09-26-2010, 07:24 PM
Right now the software assumes all teams are equal strength. With that assumption, we have a 64% chance of making the playoffs. The historical record of 75% of 3-0 teams making the playoffs reflects the reality that, on average, teams that are 3-0 are better average teams. I use efficiency ratings from AdvancedNFLStats.com to predict game outcomes. I think Brian Burke starts posting those after week 4, or thereabouts.

But remember, Denver went 6-0 last season, and I had them at a 99.6% chance of making the playoffs. I explained here (http://files.nfl-forecast.com/archives/93) that the odds should have only been about 96%. Still, regardless of the odds you have to keep playing well.

I didn't see the game this week since I was traveling in the car all day.

Hog Farmer
09-26-2010, 07:25 PM
And the Broncos seem to think you're wrong !

Gadzooks
09-26-2010, 07:26 PM
Denver didn't make the playoffs last year and it's the Chiefs' turn this year.
Thanks for comin' out...

SenselessChiefsFan
09-26-2010, 08:34 PM
It's not how you start, it's how you finish. Denver was a great example of that last year. Oddly, it started to deteriorate after the bye.

The Broncos are currently 3-10 in their last 13 games.

I think the Chiefs will not make the playoffs, but they are taking steps forward, and not backwards. That is a good thing.

Bane
09-26-2010, 08:35 PM
And the Broncos seem to think you're wrong !

DAMN! That means that @6-0 it should have been 150%!ROFLROFLROFLROFL

Marcellus
09-26-2010, 08:38 PM
Well 3-0 has to be better odds than 0-3 so I will take it and run.

petegz28
09-26-2010, 08:50 PM
I shouldn't say this after such a glorious win, but I still think it's more likely that SF makes the playoffs (3% chance historically), even though they're already two games behind Seattle. I don't think there are any "gimmie" games in our division, whereas they've got two each against Arizona and the Rams. And San Diego will probably do what they always do, start like this and end up winning a dozen games anyway.

But I didn't think they'd start 3-0 and I hope they keep on surprising me all year long.

San Diego has problems, imo. They can't run the ball and their special teams coverage sucks. I don't care how good your offense is when it comes to passing. If you can't run the ball and you are constantly giving up decent field position you are not going to win as a one-dimensional team. But given thier recent history we will see where they are at the half-way point. Remember they lost to a team today that Denver raped. Denver actually probably had a shot to beat Indy today but their coach fucked that away.

Denver however is looking rather one-diminesional as well. Pass, pass and pass some more.

Oakland lost to the Cards and squaked by a win last week. Now all of those teams have only had 1 home game except Denver. So we shall see.

I thought the way Indy's D played today was terrible. It sucks we have them on the road but I think Jones and Charles can run right the fuck over them.

Basileus777
09-26-2010, 08:54 PM
I shouldn't say this after such a glorious win, but I still think it's more likely that SF makes the playoffs (3% chance historically), even though they're already two games behind Seattle. I don't think there are any "gimmie" games in our division, whereas they've got two each against Arizona and the Rams. And San Diego will probably do what they always do, start like this and end up winning a dozen games anyway.

But I didn't think they'd start 3-0 and I hope they keep on surprising me all year long.

This is crazy talk considering SF is 2 games back in their own division. Hell, the 9ers schedule isn't even any easier than ours. And besides, didn't you see how inept that team is? They are probably going to go 0-5 and have a coaching change midseason.

philfree
09-26-2010, 09:02 PM
It's not how you start, it's how you finish. Denver was a great example of that last year. Oddly, it started to deteriorate after the bye.

The Broncos are currently 3-10 in their last 13 games.

I think the Chiefs will not make the playoffs, but they are taking steps forward, and not backwards. That is a good thing.

Speaking of the Donks the Chiefs have actually won 4 in a row in 2010.


PhilFree:arrow:

baitism
09-26-2010, 09:03 PM
Thread needs more Jim Mora.

keg in kc
09-26-2010, 09:06 PM
This is crazy talk considering SF is 2 games back in their own division. Hell, the 9ers schedule isn't even any easier than ours. And besides, didn't you see how inept that team is? They are probably going to go 0-5 and have a coaching change midseason.It's not about SF; it's about SF's division. I don't think SF is going to 0-fer the season, and I don't think Seattle's in as good a shape as their early record looks (they're basically in the same position we are, being 2 games ahead of SD..).

Basileus777
09-26-2010, 09:09 PM
It's not about SF; it's about SF's division. I don't think SF is going to 0-fer the season, and I don't think Seattle's in as good a shape as their early record looks (they're basically in the same position we are, being 2 games ahead of SD..).

The 49ers aren't any better than those other NFC West teams and they are two games behind them. They are a bad team with a terrible coaching staff, and they have already lost ground in the division race. They aren't making the playoffs.

Bearcat
09-26-2010, 09:09 PM
Well, if Miami wins, there will be four 3-0 teams.... the Bears or Packers, Steelers, Dolphins, and Chiefs.

So, the one most likely not to make the playoffs...

keg in kc
09-26-2010, 09:10 PM
San Diego has problems, imo. They can't run the ball and their special teams coverage sucks. I don't care how good your offense is when it comes to passing. If you can't run the ball and you are constantly giving up decent field position you are not going to win as a one-dimensional team. But given thier recent history we will see where they are at the half-way point. Remember they lost to a team today that Denver raped. Denver actually probably had a shot to beat Indy today but their coach ****ed that away.

I thought the way Indy's D played today was terrible.

It sucks we have them on the road but I think Jones and Charles can run right the **** over them.I don't think we can attack Indy the way that Denver did (i.e. through the air) and I think the way the Texans ran over them was an aberration that won't happen again this year. I know that Crennel historically does well against Manning, but I don't have a very good feeling about our defense against that offense. Rivers was out of sorts thanks to the crowd on Monday night, the Browns down have a quarterback and Alex Smith is Alex Smith. I think if it was a home game, the crowd would help, but since it's in Indy, I think Manning might have a field day.

But, hey, I'm 0-3 on my Chiefs game picks this season...

keg in kc
09-26-2010, 09:12 PM
The 49ers aren't any better than those other NFC West teams and they are two games behind them. They are a bad team with a terrible coaching staff, and they have already lost ground in the division race. They aren't making the playoffs.We'll see. There's still 13 games to play. And I'm not saying they will or they won't, because I don't know. I'm only saying I think it's more likely that they do than we do.

Basileus777
09-26-2010, 09:14 PM
We'll see. There's still 13 games to play. And I'm not saying they will or they won't, because I don't know. I'm only saying I think it's more likely that they do than we do.

Fair enough, but I think that's a pretty outlandish statement given the current circumstances.

keg in kc
09-26-2010, 09:15 PM
I'm a Chiefs fan since 1999, it's going to be a few weeks yet before I'm convinced we have a real shot at the playoffs....

Archie F. Swin
09-26-2010, 09:41 PM
No 3 win team has ever made it to the playoffs. I'm pretty sure we will have sobered up by early November.

ForeverChiefs58
09-26-2010, 09:44 PM
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Sweet Daddy Hate
09-27-2010, 03:05 AM
Hell, if we just sweep the division, I'm one satisfied SOB!

But yeah; PLAYOFFS, BITCHES!!!!!!! w00t!!!!!!!