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View Full Version : Chiefs What are the chances we make the playoffs in 2010?


DaFace
09-27-2010, 02:54 PM
Since I don't have a game to make a probability poll about this week, we'll test the waters of ChiefsPlanet with regard to THIS YEAR's playoff chances.

baitism
09-27-2010, 02:55 PM
I would say 65%

threebag02
09-27-2010, 02:57 PM
I thought that was why we were saving Charles. Was for the playoffs. 100%

Sofa King
09-27-2010, 02:57 PM
100%. Superbowl baby.

chiefsnorth
09-27-2010, 02:59 PM
Given our schedule I picked 50%. In a normal year I think this is probably an 8 win team.

'Hamas' Jenkins
09-27-2010, 03:02 PM
30%. We've got the tougher part of our schedule up.

Some of the teams we play look worse than expected (Arizona), others look somewhat better (Seattle and St. Louis). Denver isn't as abjectly horrible as I thought they would be, and Oakland is semi-competitive with Gradkowski.

Jacksonville is awful but Buffalo could sneak up on us just b/c Fitzpatrick isn't a total shitbomb at QB.

I think whether or not we finish 4-2 or 3-3 in division will determine our playoff fate. We probably lose to Indy and Houston, but we have a decent chance against Tennessee. Jacksonville should be a win

Say we take two more against the NFC West, losing at Seattle, and round out our division 3-2. That's 8 wins, meaning you need one more against Buffalo and Jacksonville to get to 9. You might be able to win both of them, but we could lose either game as well.

BWillie
09-27-2010, 03:02 PM
30-40%. If they beat Indy or Houston in the next few weeks I'd say 55%.

stevieray
09-27-2010, 03:05 PM
not enough to go on yet.

DaFace
09-27-2010, 03:08 PM
not enough to go on yet.

Since when has that mattered around here? Unsubstantiated speculation FTW!

Reerun_KC
09-27-2010, 03:08 PM
50%

This way your not right or wrong...

Red Brooklyn
09-27-2010, 03:55 PM
30%

38yrsfan
09-27-2010, 04:06 PM
80%

West div champs.

Bane
09-27-2010, 04:09 PM
50% IMO.Watched Dungver go from 6-0 to OH NOOOOOO! So I'm not celebrating too early. Glad to be 3-0 and loving the D.Keep it up and we'll see.

SNR
09-27-2010, 04:16 PM
This schedule is a gold mine. And it's not like our division is the friggin AFC East. If we have problems with some teams, the rest of our division will probably have the same problems.

I voted 80%. Still that chance that we could poop ourselves. But if we keep doing what our doing and get this kind of awesome coaching consistently, the division is ours.

DJ's left nut
09-27-2010, 04:58 PM
I had them set to go 7-9 with a loss last week.

This puts them at 8-8 on my chart, but also makes me think they'll beat Jax at home (which I had as an L).

As such, I have them as an amended 9-7 which is pretty much a 50/50 shot at making the playoffs.

CaliforniaChief
09-27-2010, 05:02 PM
60%.

I'm thinking 9, MAYBE 10 wins. MAYBE.

bevischief
09-27-2010, 05:04 PM
60% at this point.

Buehler445
09-27-2010, 05:20 PM
30%. They'll stub their toe.

They've won at least one game they shouldn't have. They'll lose one they shouldn't. This team, as much potential as they are showing, still has the potential to be very bad. Look at the last 3 years and this preseason as evidence.
Posted via Mobile Device

Psyko Tek
09-27-2010, 05:40 PM
voted 70%
homer me says we sweep the division

real me says we win at home and oakland

hopefully pick off one of yjr next two

get either rams or cards as a win
we keep winning arrowwood becomes a factor
and home games get more winnable




K I will stop calling it arrowwood



soon

DaFace
09-27-2010, 05:42 PM
In case anyone cares, the current average vote is 54%. Apparently, ChiefsPlanet is relatively undecided on the Playoffs, with a slight positive skew. Interesting.

Kraus
09-27-2010, 05:45 PM
The NFL average for 3-0 Teams going to the playoffs in the last 20 years is 75%. I figure we're not as good as most of those teams, but I think we have a better shot being in the AFCW and having a soft schedule outside of our next two road games. I'm saying 60% with a shot at the wildcard.

bobby78bell
09-27-2010, 06:28 PM
before the season started i had the chiefs at 10-6,right now i have the chiefs at 12-4 the colts own us,texans will be tough so there two loses. but the rest of the schedule 11 games the chiefs should win 9 out of 11

jjchieffan
09-27-2010, 06:57 PM
The NFL average for 3-0 Teams going to the playoffs in the last 20 years is 75%. I figure we're not as good as most of those teams, but I think we have a better shot being in the AFCW and having a soft schedule outside of our next two road games. I'm saying 60% with a shot at the wildcard.

You can forget the wild card. If we don't win the division, we don't make the playoffs. Out of the Jets, Pats, Ravens, Steelers, Colts, and Texans there will be 3 division winners, and both wild cards.

GEAUX SAINTS
09-27-2010, 07:18 PM
I voted 40% (but honestly now that I'm thinking about it I may go 30%), I haven't looked at your guys schedule enough to give a real accurate opinion though. No offense but I wouldn't be too surprised if you guys pull a Denver and just start sucking

Chiefs Rool
09-27-2010, 07:20 PM
75% of 3-0 teams make the playoffs right?

Rain Man
09-27-2010, 07:20 PM
I voted 40%, I haven't looked at your guys schedule enough to give a real accurate opinion though. No offense but I wouldn't be too surprised if you guys pull a Denver and just start sucking

Don't EVER compare us to Denver.

And thanks for Roaf.

teedubya
09-27-2010, 07:22 PM
75% of 3-0 teams make the playoffs right?

That's my line of thinking... right now, the Chiefs have a 75% chance. PERIOD.

wazu
09-27-2010, 07:24 PM
That's my line of thinking... right now, the Chiefs have a 75% chance. PERIOD.

This seems about right. They haven't played world-beaters, but they have a light schedule and play in a crappy division, so it probably all balances out to about your standard 75%.

SNR
09-27-2010, 07:26 PM
I voted 40% (but honestly now that I'm thinking about it I may go 30%), I haven't looked at your guys schedule enough to give a real accurate opinion though. No offense but I wouldn't be too surprised if you guys pull a Denver and just start suckingThat's not how you spell "go", dumbass

GEAUX SAINTS
09-27-2010, 07:28 PM
Don't EVER compare us to Denver.

And thanks for Roaf.
My mistake, 2008 Redskins.

:cuss:
That's not how you spell "go", dumbass
Clever

ElGringo
09-27-2010, 07:37 PM
Thinking about 70%....purely winning the division, do not believe we stand a chance any other way.

Pablo
09-27-2010, 07:41 PM
I voted 40% (but honestly now that I'm thinking about it I may go 30%), I haven't looked at your guys schedule enough to give a real accurate opinion though. No offense but I wouldn't be too surprised if you guys pull a Denver and just start suckingI wouldn't be too surprised if Drew Brees' eczema scar slowly morphed into a vagina over the course of the season; then Glenn Dorsey fucked it mercilessly in the SUPERBOWL.

Jerm
09-27-2010, 07:44 PM
I voted 70%....division is there for the taking as San Diego is beyond Jekyll and Hyde right now and we're off to a great start.

I can't wait for these next two games...litmus test just to see how far we've come.

GEAUX SAINTS
09-27-2010, 07:50 PM
I wouldn't be too surprised if Drew Brees' eczema scar slowly morphed into a vagina over the course of the season; then Glenn Dorsey ****ed it mercilessly in the SUPERBOWL.
Because Glenn Dorsey is such a world beater with his 2.5 career sacks.

I'm rooting for you guys to make the playoffs, I just don't trust Cassel and I'm not sure how you guys'll do further into the season when other teams are seeing you as legitimate threat.

cdcox
09-27-2010, 08:00 PM
Wow, I was surprised how high my estimate turned out. I used my software after roughly ranking the teams in 5 groups. Power ratings are the the same for each team in each group. This is my gut feel of how things will shake out (in terms of team strength) by the end of the season. I then simulated the season 5000 times, applied the tiebreakers etc.

I came out with a 67% chance of us making the playoffs. Win probability graph in the next post.

Group 1 (elite)
IND, NO ,PHI, PIT

Group 2 (next level down)
SD, DAL, NE, NYJ, GB, HOU, TEN, BAL

Group 3 (middle of the road)
CIN, MIA, SEA, KC, NYG, ATL, CHI, MIN

Group 4 (starting to stink)
DEN, OAK, SF, JAX, TB, CAR, WAS, ARI

Group 5 (stink, stank, stunk)
BUF, STL, DET, CLE

ClevelandBronco
09-27-2010, 08:05 PM
I guess the AFC West is contractually obligated to send someone.

cdcox
09-27-2010, 08:06 PM
Below is a bar graph showing the probability of winning x games. In the red shaded regions we make the playoffs. In the gray shaded regions we don't.

DaFace
09-27-2010, 08:15 PM
Below is a bar graph showing the probability of winning x games. In the red shaded regions we make the playoffs. In the gray shaded regions we don't.

Huh. 10-11 wins would be pure insanity IMO, but with our schedule, I suppose it's possible. Still, not gonna hold my breath.

DeezNutz
09-27-2010, 08:17 PM
70%.

50-50 shows no balls.

DaFace
09-27-2010, 08:17 PM
before the season started i had the chiefs at 10-6,right now i have the chiefs at 12-4 the colts own us,texans will be tough so there two loses. but the rest of the schedule 11 games the chiefs should win 9 out of 11

Damn. You're a definite "glass is half full" person.

cdcox
09-27-2010, 08:28 PM
Huh. 10-11 wins would be pure insanity IMO, but with our schedule, I suppose it's possible. Still, not gonna hold my breath.

Yeah, the individual game odds for the Chiefs didn't look right. I moved some of the sliders to where I thought they should be. It shifted the distribution a full game to the left and dropped our playoff chances to about 45%, which I feel is about right.

DaFace
09-27-2010, 08:34 PM
Yeah, the individual game odds for the Chiefs didn't look right. I moved some of the sliders to where I thought they should be. It shifted the distribution a full game to the left and dropped our playoff chances to about 45%, which I feel is about right.

Sounds about right to me.

threebag02
09-27-2010, 08:39 PM
It won't be as a wildcard. The only way is to win the west.

tk13
09-27-2010, 09:10 PM
I don't think we have a good feel for this season yet, though. You have seasons that'll fluctuate... like last year, where you had teams undefeated deep into the season and 2-3 totally dominant teams. Then other seasons where there are good teams, but things are a lot more leveled out.

Just like a couple years ago when the Titans had the best record in the AFC... or the year the Broncos had a first round bye with Plummer. Or that year the Raiders went to the SB. Honestly so far it feels more like one of those seasons than one like last year where there are 2-3 super dominant teams. Too early to say though.

beach tribe
09-27-2010, 09:25 PM
I don't think we have a good feel for this season yet, though. You have seasons that'll fluctuate... like last year, where you had teams undefeated deep into the season and 2-3 totally dominant teams. Then other seasons where there are good teams, but things are a lot more leveled out.

Just like a couple years ago when the Titans had the best record in the AFC... or the year the Broncos had a first round bye with Plummer. Or that year the Raiders went to the SB. Honestly so far it feels more like one of those seasons than one like last year where there are 2-3 super dominant teams. Too early to say though.

It's definitely like that, but the thing is, I feel like we are going to win against teams we should beat. We aren't contenders yet, but we have a great chance to make the POs with this schedule.

thurman merman
09-27-2010, 10:05 PM
That's not how you spell "go", dumbass

ROFL

thurman merman
09-27-2010, 10:10 PM
I voted 40% (but honestly now that I'm thinking about it I may go 30%), I haven't looked at your guys schedule enough to give a real accurate opinion though. No offense but I wouldn't be too surprised if you guys pull a Denver and just start sucking

Why are you here?

Hydrae
09-27-2010, 10:23 PM
Thinking about 70%....purely winning the division, do not believe we stand a chance any other way.

Same

boogblaster
09-27-2010, 10:52 PM
60% or better ...

GEAUX SAINTS
09-27-2010, 11:21 PM
Why are you here?
I like the Chiefs?

Crush
09-28-2010, 12:14 AM
I like the Chiefs?

Welcome.

Just answer these two questions to become a fully accepted member of the community.

1. Are you Mr. Kotter?

2. Seriously, are you Mr. Kotter?

johnny961
09-28-2010, 01:18 AM
50-50 shot the way I see it.

michaelj_58
09-28-2010, 04:20 AM
playoffs?playoffs!

eazyb81
09-28-2010, 08:30 AM
Chargers still have the best shot.

They have more talent than we do and a schedule that isn't too difficult.

KC will win 7-10 games this season. 2 of our 3 games so far have been easy, and 4 of our remaining 13 games are easy.

If we can find a way to win 4 of the more difficult games, we should make the postseason.

DaFace
09-28-2010, 10:02 AM
Apparently the late night/morning crew is more optimistic. Our average vote is now up to 58%.

Frazod
09-28-2010, 10:10 AM
I wish there was a 65% option. 70% still seems too optimistic, so I guess I'll go with 60%. We'll really find out what this team is made of after the next three weeks - if they win against either Indy or Houston, then I'll fully be onboard with the playoff thing and I think we'll have a real shot at winning the division. If not, then I still think we might sneak in as a wildcard, but it'll be iffy.

Of course, San Diego is pissing down it's overrated leg and Denver and Oakland suck dick, so I guess anything is possible division-wise.

buddha
09-28-2010, 11:31 AM
We have a two game lead after three games. I'd be more concerned if the teams behind us WERE really good and just not awake yet. San Diego is a f'ing farce. Sure Rivers will throw for a million yards this year, but their defense is lousy and their o-line isn't what it used to be. Oakland is credible on defense and better on offense than they have been. Still, those clowns can't get out of their own way...too many penalties, too little from the fat troll kicker...they still know how to pull defeat from the jaws of victory. Denver is the worst team in the division, period.

I agree with the comment that it's division winner or bust for KC, but 9-10 wins at this point is certianly in reach and they should expect no less.

Once again, it's amazing how good you can get with a couple of good drafts and two really good coordinators!

The Bad Guy
09-28-2010, 11:35 AM
Because Glenn Dorsey is such a world beater with his 2.5 career sacks.

I'm rooting for you guys to make the playoffs, I just don't trust Cassel and I'm not sure how you guys'll do further into the season when other teams are seeing you as legitimate threat.

And here's the problem with dumb freaking fans of other teams.

Glenn Dorsey is a force. A pure force. The fact that you only want to look at sack totals as some freaking benchmark for 3-4 DE's is hilarious.

GEAUX F yourself.

The Bad Guy
09-28-2010, 11:37 AM
Chargers still have the best shot.

They have more talent than we do and a schedule that isn't too difficult.

KC will win 7-10 games this season. 2 of our 3 games so far have been easy, and 4 of our remaining 13 games are easy.

If we can find a way to win 4 of the more difficult games, we should make the postseason.

I'm in total disagreement about the talent level of the San Diego Chargers.

Their defense isn't good at all.

They have the QB, TE, who are all-world players. However, the receivers don't scare many unless VJax swallows some pride.

Their special teams are also some of the worst in the NFL.

jAZ
09-28-2010, 11:38 AM
Where's the "chances are improving" option? That's the only one I feel comfortable choosing at the moment.

Frazod
09-28-2010, 11:44 AM
I like the Chiefs?

If anything happens to Brees, I'll like the Saints. CHASE DANIEL FTW! :D

Bowser
09-28-2010, 11:56 AM
I went 40%. This will change to 60% if we beat either the Colts or Texans on the road. Beat them both, and I'd say 80%, just due to our home schedule the rest of the way.

Art Vader
09-28-2010, 11:59 AM
I don't care if we make the playoffs... I am just totally stoked and refreshed to hear "playoffs" and "Chiefs" in the same sentence.. no matter how many sports anchors laugh us off as a fluke, no matter how many other teams' fans dog me for being a Chiefs fan and tell me not to be excited because we will just blow it or get over-run by our division rivals who have more of a winning tradition.... I'm shaking off the Pavlovian feelings of improbability from watching inept Chiefs teams take the field for years on end. This is the fresh water shower after being trapped in a pond of rotting shit for years with no sign of escape. Over-reaction? **** yeah. 2010 FTW!