PDA

View Full Version : Chiefs Stat nerds: Chiefs have the best chance to make the playoffs of any team.


Douche Baggins
09-28-2010, 08:23 PM
Piss in our coffee, will you, Cdcox? We'll piss right back inta yers, son!

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2010/week-3-dvoa-ratings

It's still early in the season, but FO ranks the Chiefs as the second best team in the NFL according to DVOA and the 9th best according to DAVE (DVOA adjusted for early season variance). They also have the highest probability of making the playoffs of any team in the NFL (93.9%).
All of these ratings, of course, are still somewhat shaky because it is too early to include opponent adjustments. The 3-0 Kansas City Chiefs are a good example of this problem. When we predicted before the season that Kansas City would win the AFC West, it was more a prediction of San Diego's decline. We expected the Chiefs to sneak into the playoffs at 9-7. We did not expect them to start the season 3-0, including a triumphant 31-3 thrashing of San Francisco this week. According to our playoff odds report (http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds), the Chiefs now have the best chance to make the postseason of any team in the league: 93.9 percent of all simulations.


Now, it looks like Kansas City has built its good early record against bad teams, as its three opponents are a combined 1-8. But one of those opponents is San Diego, a team most observers expect to improve -- and the Chargers' two losses have been very close. Another of those opponents is Cleveland, which, as noted in the paragraph before this one, has played its opponents close so far. So has Kansas City played three bad teams? Or two average teams and one bad team? Or will the Chargers win eventually qualify as a win over a good team? It's just too early to tell.

Shogun
09-28-2010, 08:27 PM
*pees on self*

Pablo
09-28-2010, 08:27 PM
FUCK YES.

They even got the score of the game right.

(31-3 bitches)

milkman
09-28-2010, 08:33 PM
Is this going to be a pissing match?

Rausch
09-28-2010, 08:37 PM
That's the great thing about the NFL.

If you win enough games to make the playoffs you make it.

What people think about who you beat is completely irrelevant...

OnTheWarpath58
09-28-2010, 08:38 PM
FO ranks the Chiefs as the second best team in the NFL

How anyone can take anything said after that seriously is beyond me.

cdcox
09-28-2010, 08:38 PM
Way too high. These early season predictions aren't very reliable. I predicted both the Broncos and Giants had more than a 90% chance of making the playoffs last year at week 3. Neither did.

Maybe I'll find time this weekend to modify my software to account for uncertainty in early team ratings to avoid these kind of embarrassing predictions.

BTW, I was doing playoff predictions way before FO even existed.

The Bad Guy
09-28-2010, 08:40 PM
How anyone can take anything said after that seriously is beyond me.

It's all subjective, just like every single power ranking and every single opinion about how "bad" this team is.

Douche Baggins
09-28-2010, 08:42 PM
BTW, I was doing playoff predictions way before FO even existed.

http://i54.tinypic.com/2zfl72f.jpg

OnTheWarpath58
09-28-2010, 08:42 PM
It's all subjective, just like every single power ranking and every single opinion about how "bad" this team is.

No one has said this team is the 2nd worst in the league.

That would be equally as stupid as saying they are the 2nd best - regardless of their record.

Basileus777
09-28-2010, 08:44 PM
It's all subjective, just like every single power ranking and every single opinion about how "bad" this team is.

It's not subjective like some normal power ranking, it's based on Football Outsiders' statistical models.

The Bad Guy
09-28-2010, 08:45 PM
No one has said this team is the 2nd worst in the league.

That would be equally as stupid as saying they are the 2nd best - regardless of their record.

There were plenty of people who thought this was in fact 2nd worst in the league before that SD game kicked off.

OnTheWarpath58
09-28-2010, 08:46 PM
There were plenty of people who thought this was in fact 2nd worst in the league before that SD game kicked off.

What does three weeks ago have to do with what FO is claiming NOW?

Rausch
09-28-2010, 08:47 PM
http://i54.tinypic.com/2zfl72f.jpg

You're a douchebag...

The Bad Guy
09-28-2010, 08:50 PM
What does three weeks ago have to do with what FO is claiming NOW?

It's the scope of everything. Those that thought we'd be the worst team in the league are still the ones holding onto that in some way shape or form.

Anything that comes out that remotely says this team turned the corner, is a playoff contender, is met with some staunch criticism.

OnTheWarpath58
09-28-2010, 08:53 PM
It's the scope of everything. Those that thought we'd be the worst team in the league are still the ones holding onto that in some way shape or form.

Anything that comes out that remotely says this team turned the corner, is a playoff contender, is met with some staunch criticism.

Sorry, I call bullshit.

Even the people that thought we would suck, such as myself, would rank this team at LEAST in the 14-16 range, maybe higher.

DaFace
09-28-2010, 08:53 PM
As the article mentions, they don't have opponent adjustments included yet. That makes a big difference.

CrazyPhuD
09-28-2010, 09:15 PM
ok 3-13 here we come now...thanks stats dude!

Bane
09-28-2010, 09:17 PM
Staturbators? Bwaaa haaa haaa!
Posted via Mobile Device

beach tribe
09-29-2010, 10:28 AM
There was also some percentages thrown out that show that teams with less than 5 wins the previous season that went 3-0 had something like an 18% chance of making the play-offs, but variables such as Crennel, and Wies are special circumstances IMO.
Haley was smart to get rid of Gailey before the start of the season last year if you ask me, cause the O that Haley ran last year is much closer to Wies' than what Gailey would have ran.

Pitt Gorilla
09-29-2010, 10:34 AM
Way too high. These early season predictions aren't very reliable. I predicted both the Broncos and Giants had more than a 90% chance of making the playoffs last year at week 3. Neither did.

Maybe I'll find time this weekend to modify my software to account for uncertainty in early team ratings to avoid these kind of embarrassing predictions.

BTW, I was doing playoff predictions way before FO even existed.How can you tell they aren't reliable? A 90% chance means that there was a 10% chance (or so) for each one to miss the playoffs. While that isn't incredibly likely, it doesn't mean that your model is necessarily flawed; those 10%s exist for a reason and do happen.

DaFace
09-29-2010, 10:39 AM
How can you tell they aren't reliable? A 90% chance means that there was a 10% chance (or so) for each one to miss the playoffs. While that isn't incredibly likely, it doesn't mean that your model is necessarily flawed; those 10%s exist for a reason and do happen.

The main issue is the idea of objective "power rankings". Early in the season, it's tough to tell whether a game is won because one team is good or because the other is bad. As more data becomes available, the model corrects itself, but early on, it essentially just tells you what the standings show - teams that have won are more likely to make the playoffs than teams that have lost.

It's more complicated than that by far, but that's the basic idea.

Rausch
09-29-2010, 10:42 AM
Staturbators? Bwaaa haaa haaa!
Posted via Mobile Device

This isn't a slam on you but I figured this was as good a time as any to punch a stranger in the face for no reason and hijack the topic.

Can I just stick with @$$#ole?

That cool?

Next to call me a drafturbator, true fan, or whatever completely retarded excuse/term used to mock someone else based on my random 10 posts today wins a fucking angry-hate-filled-day-long-Rausch-rant.

Marcellus
09-29-2010, 10:43 AM
As of today the numbers and % are correct. Where we are in 3 weeks will be more interesting.

Mile High Mania
09-29-2010, 10:43 AM
These threads are great... keep 'em coming. They're the 2nd best team after going 3-0 against teams with a combined 1-8 record, two of the game @ KC... these next two games are going to really tell you where KC ranks. If they're as great as you guys hope, they'll do well @ IND and @ HOU. If not, well ... stats are stats.

Mr. Flopnuts
09-29-2010, 11:13 AM
These threads are great... keep 'em coming. They're the 2nd best team after going 3-0 against teams with a combined 1-8 record, two of the game @ KC... these next two games are going to really tell you where KC ranks. If they're as great as you guys hope, they'll do well @ IND and @ HOU. If not, well ... stats are stats.

I'm starting to think this shit is really starting to get to you. 1-2 isn't that bad. Maybe you guys can finish the year 6-0 this time. LMAO No. Probably not.

petegz28
09-29-2010, 11:35 AM
If the Chiefs go out an play Indy tough, not even win but play them tough and make it a game I would put KC in the top 5-10 teams. If we beat Indy I would say top 5.

Bewbies
09-29-2010, 01:13 PM
These threads are great... keep 'em coming. They're the 2nd best team after going 3-0 against teams with a combined 1-8 record, two of the game @ KC... these next two games are going to really tell you where KC ranks. If they're as great as you guys hope, they'll do well @ IND and @ HOU. If not, well ... stats are stats.

I feel bad for you, I really do. We've spent the last 3 years going through what you're heading into. That sucks for you, and your smack is worthless when you're drafting the top 5.