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cdcox
10-13-2010, 08:28 PM
After several years of predicting the draft order, it is refreshing to be able to do a thread tracking the Chiefs playoff odds. Hopefully this doesn't jinx us. It is a little early to be confident about the predictions but they should start becoming more accurate within a few weeks.

These predictions are a hobby of mine that I started way back in the days of the Star Board.

You can run the software yourself (to do advanced scenario analyisis) at http://nfl-forecast.com. Or you can just view a summary of the league wide results at http://files.nfl-forecast.com. Official predictions are normally updated each Wednesday once the new team efficiency ratings are posted at http://advancednflstats.com, although I can get a preliminary estimate immediately after each game finishes. I'll keep the most recent update in the thread starter.

OFFICIAL PROJECTION AFTER WEEK 5:

Chances of Winning the Division: 57%
Chances of Making the Playoffs: 87%
Median Projected Wins: 11


OFFICIAL PROJECTION AFTER WEEK 6:

Chances of Winning the Division: 72%
Chances of Making the Playoffs: 83%
Median Projected Wins: 11

OFFICIAL PROJECTION AFTER WEEK 7:

Chances of Winning the Division: 85%
Chances of Making the Playoffs: 90%
Median Projected Wins: 11

OFFICIAL PROJECTION AFTER WEEK 8:

Chances of Winning the Division: 83%
Chances of Making the Playoffs: 89%
Median Projected Wins: 11

OFFICIAL PROJECTION AFTER WEEK 9:

Chances of Winning the Division: 51%
Chances of Making the Playoffs: 69%
Median Projected Wins: 10

OFFICIAL PROJECTION AFTER WEEK 10:

Chances of Winning the Division: 38%
Chances of Making the Playoffs: 46%
Median Projected Wins: 10

OFFICIAL PROJECTION AFTER WEEK 11:

Chances of Winning the Division: 31%
Chances of Making the Playoffs: 41%
Median Projected Wins: 10

OFFICIAL PROJECTION AFTER WEEK 12:

Chances of Winning the Division: 28%
Chances of Making the Playoffs: 38%
Median Projected Wins: 10

OFFICIAL PROJECTION AFTER WEEK 13:

Chances of Winning the Division: 64%
Chances of Making the Playoffs: 67%
Median Projected Wins: 10 wins

OFFICIAL PROJECTION AFTER WEEK 14:

Chances of Winning the Division: 45%
Chances of Making the Playoffs: 49%
Median Projected Wins: 10 wins

OFFICIAL PROJECTION AFTER WEEK 15:

Chances of Winning the Division: 52.5%
Chances of Making the Playoffs: 52.5%
Median Projected Wins: 10 wins

OFFICIAL PROJECTION AFTER WEEK 16:

Chances of Winning the Division: 100%
Chances of Making the Playoffs: 100%
Median Projected Wins: 11 wins

58-4ever
10-13-2010, 08:29 PM
If we win 11 games, I will have a boner that will last until March Madness.

DA_T_84
10-13-2010, 08:32 PM
After several years of predicting the draft order, it is refreshing to be able to do a thread tracking the Chiefs playoff odds. Hopefully this doesn't jinx us. It is a little early to be confident about the predictions but they should start becoming more accurate within a few weeks.

These predictions are a hobby of mine that I started way back in the days of the Star Board.

You can run the software yourself (to do advanced scenario analyisis) at http://nfl-forecast.com. Or you can just view a summary of the league wide results at http://files.nfl-forecast.com. Official predictions are normally updated each Wednesday once the new team efficiency ratings are posted at http://advancednflstats.com, although I can get a preliminary estimate immediately after each game finishes. I'll keep the most recent update in the thread starter.

CURRENT PROJECTION:

Chances of Winning the Division: 57%
Chances of Making the Playoffs: 87%
Median Projected Wins: 11

11!!!!11111!!!!!????eleventy!!!

Claynus
10-13-2010, 08:32 PM
Oakland
Denver
Jacksonville
Buffalo
Arizona
St. Louis

Don't really have confidence in any other games as wins. We might sweep Oakland or Denver, though.

teedubya
10-13-2010, 08:33 PM
Oakland
Denver
Jacksonville
Buffalo
Arizona
St. Louis

Don't really have confidence in any other games as wins. We might sweep Oakland or Denver, though.

8 + 3 = 11

FAX
10-13-2010, 08:34 PM
Great news and great job, Mr. cdcox.

And, by the way, I was going to dredge up that thread you started a few weeks ago regarding the potential problems our team was going to have in future if we were unable to get any traditional offensive production ... like first downs and scores and stuff.

Unfortunately, when I tried, I got a thing that said "You don't have permission to do this, FAX, so quit trying you stupid tool or I'll ban you for life. Signed, Mr. Bob Dole."

I thought it would be interesting since you basically called out the problems well before they emerged so clearly in the Mannings game (and were so unfairly dissed for your trouble, I might add).

Anyhow, I think these numbers would make a damn fine titty graph.

FAX

Donger
10-13-2010, 08:34 PM
I'm holding out for 13-3.

Has a nice ring to it.

Claynus
10-13-2010, 08:35 PM
8 + 3 = 11

Like I said, 9 wins seems the most likely to me.

If they beat Houston, 11 wins will seem more likely.

cdcox
10-13-2010, 08:37 PM
Oakland
Denver
Jacksonville
Buffalo
Arizona
St. Louis

Don't really have confidence in any other games as wins. We might sweep Oakland or Denver, though.

The current efficiency ratings have the Houston game a toss up (similar to last week against Indy), and then have us favored in every remaining game except San Diego. The key (limiting) assumption is that every team will continue to play at the same level they have played so far this season.

Guru
10-13-2010, 08:39 PM
I'm holding out for 13-3.

Has a nice ring to it.

I don't ever want to see 13-3 again. It was the kiss of death.

Claynus
10-13-2010, 08:40 PM
The current efficiency ratings have the Houston game a toss up (similar to last week against Indy), and then have us favored in every remaining game except San Diego. The key (limiting) assumption is that every team will continue to play at the same level they have played so far this season.

That's interesting. I'm a little surprised it favors us against the Titans and Seahawks. I don't see us winning either game.

cdcox
10-13-2010, 08:41 PM
titty graph

Just for you, FAX.

FAX
10-13-2010, 08:42 PM
Perky.

FAX

ElGringo
10-13-2010, 08:44 PM
Hey, now I don't do stats as well as some others here, but noticed as I looked at the page with the results, we also have the highest percentage probably to have the highest seed in the AFC, that's right, the road to the Super Bowl comes through KC!!!!

cdcox
10-13-2010, 08:49 PM
To keep things in perspective, I offer this gem I posted last year:

http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=216597

fakejamaalcharles
10-13-2010, 10:29 PM
Give me the ball and all your dreams come true!

DaFace
10-13-2010, 10:32 PM
Interesting. Just like last year, that seems too high for me, but I guess we'll see.

Nightfyre
10-13-2010, 10:39 PM
What are the odds we lose out and pick first overall? Just curious...

LaChapelle
10-13-2010, 10:42 PM
Laz
get a life

HMc
10-14-2010, 01:03 AM
i don't want to be negative, but the whole "assuming no changes in form" kinda fucks this up a bit yes?

I guess I could tell you that extrapolating the first quarter of the season into 4 quarters tells me that we likely go 12-4.

Would that be appreciably less accurate than your model?

can you quickly and easily tell me how well the first 4 games predicted the outcome of the season for a large sample over a long period? cool if not

FAX
10-14-2010, 10:42 AM
i don't want to be negative, but the whole "assuming no changes in form" kinda ****s this up a bit yes?

I guess I could tell you that extrapolating the first quarter of the season into 4 quarters tells me that we likely go 12-4.

Would that be appreciably less accurate than your model?

can you quickly and easily tell me how well the first 4 games predicted the outcome of the season for a large sample over a long period? cool if not

Mr. cdcox is a football scientist, Mr. HMc. He knows stuff about stuff that people like you and me cannot fathom out real good.

FAX

DaFace
10-14-2010, 12:23 PM
i don't want to be negative, but the whole "assuming no changes in form" kinda fucks this up a bit yes?

I guess I could tell you that extrapolating the first quarter of the season into 4 quarters tells me that we likely go 12-4.

Would that be appreciably less accurate than your model?

can you quickly and easily tell me how well the first 4 games predicted the outcome of the season for a large sample over a long period? cool if not

There are two major differences in just extrapolating to the full season and the models. (There may be more, but I'll let seedy explain any other ones I've missed.)

First, the model is based on Advanced NFL Stats' Efficiency Rankings (http://www.advancednflstats.com/2010/10/efficiency-rankings-week-6.html). Those rankings are entirely objective and are based on the results of each individual play rather than only on the final score of a game. It's a measure of how often a team succeeds in a variety of situations, not just whether or not they happened to get a couple of lucky bounces. If you look at that page, you'll see that San Diego is actually ranked #1 right now, despite the fact that they're behind significantly in the standings. That's primarily because their losses have come at the last minute and have sometimes been due to fluky plays rather than a consistent issue moving the ball or defending the play.

Second, the model takes into account the strength of opponents throughout the season. In other words, part of the reason why it's predicting our playoff chances being so high is because of our relatively weak schedule.

As for the "how accurate" question, the model doesn't predict wins and losses so much as it predicts the probability of a win or loss. For that reason, it's never really "wrong" since there's always a chance of an upset. However, there was a post (http://www.advancednflstats.com/2010/10/how-accurate-is-prediction-model.html) just last week about the accuracy of the model over the past few years. Overall, it's pretty close, but the analysis looks at all predictions - not just those used early in the season.

I'm sure there's a lot more to it, but that's my understanding in a nutshell.

Art Vader
10-14-2010, 01:14 PM
http://i53.tinypic.com/2qmhj6v.jpg

Mile High Mania
10-14-2010, 01:30 PM
Solid work - it will be interesting to see how things evolve.

KC's defense looks good, but offensively - there's a lot of work to be done if the Chiefs are going to pull this off and maintain the current lead.

Offensively, KC is...
18th in yards per play
26th in 1st Downs per game
29th in 3rd down %
26th in Time of Possession
26th in Points Scored (about 30th in TDs scored)

cdcox
10-17-2010, 05:26 PM
Thread starter updated, pending the last two games of the weekend and the updated team efficiencies on Wednesday. Lost some ground in the Wildcard race, but realistically that was going to be a long shot anyway.

Claynus
10-17-2010, 05:27 PM
I like how our chances of winning the division went up, but our chances of making the playoffs went down.

It's almost as if the software doesn't want a shitty AFC West team in the playoffs.

cdcox
10-24-2010, 07:47 PM
Thread starter updated.

Claynus
10-24-2010, 07:48 PM
Can you run a projection if we win our next two games, moving to 6-2 while Oakland drops to 4-5?

cdcox
10-24-2010, 07:58 PM
Can you run a projection if we win our next two games, moving to 6-2 while Oakland drops to 4-5?

So you want a scenario where Oakland beats Seattle?

Claynus
10-24-2010, 07:59 PM
So you want a scenario where Oakland beats Seattle?

Yes. If Oakland loses two in a row, I'm thinking the odds are basically 100 percent.

CupidStunt
10-24-2010, 08:02 PM
85% is a little high IMO. On paper it's set up nicely, but they've gotta win all these games against the likes of the Raiders, Bills, Rams, etc. Teams in the NFL aren't that far apart. One figures they'll lose 1 and maybe 2 they should absolutely win.

cdcox
10-24-2010, 08:06 PM
Yes. If Oakland loses two in a row, I'm thinking the odds are basically 100 percent.

Not really. My software still thinks it is the Chargers that we need to worry about. The team efficiency ratings going into today had SD as one of the best teams in the league. Oakland is one of the worst teams in the league. Today will move them up a bit, but nothing drastic. The Raiders are only one game ahead of SD, and that pales in comparison to their expected performance going forward.

So right now for winning the division it looks like

KC: 85
SD: 13
Denver: 1
Oakland: 0.2

cdcox
10-24-2010, 08:09 PM
85% is a little high IMO. On paper it's set up nicely, but they've gotta win all these games against the likes of the Raiders, Bills, Rams, etc. Teams in the NFL aren't that far apart. One figures they'll lose 1 and maybe 2 they should absolutely win.

I agree that 85% is a little high this early.

tk13
10-24-2010, 08:25 PM
I'd agree, too many division games left. But the Chargers are the biggest threat.

But if we could find a way to beat them again, we would finish them off. If my math is correct, if we happened to beat SD again... we could go .500 the rest of this season, and SD would be forced to win every single one of their other remaining games. And they still wouldn't get in.

Claynus
11-01-2010, 10:05 PM
How now, brown cow?

You should mix in chances at the #1 or #2 seed.

DaFace
11-01-2010, 10:12 PM
How now, brown cow?

You should mix in chances at the #1 or #2 seed.

Right now, it says:

1st Seed 10.5
2nd Seed 24.7
3rd Seed 26.46
4th Seed 23.62
5th Seed 2.3
6th Seed 3.28
TOTAL 90.86

However, that doesn't include the latest adjustments to efficiency ratings. Also, it's likely still too high for us (and too low for come others), as evidenced by the fact that it only gives the Raiders an 0.3 percent chance of making the playoffs right now.

Claynus
11-01-2010, 10:14 PM
So our chances of being the 4th seed are almost identical to the chances of being the 2nd seed.

Destiny.

cdcox
11-01-2010, 10:20 PM
Right now, it says:

1st Seed 10.5
2nd Seed 24.7
3rd Seed 26.46
4th Seed 23.62
5th Seed 2.3
6th Seed 3.28
TOTAL 90.86

However, that doesn't include the latest adjustments to efficiency ratings. Also, it's likely still too high for us (and too low for come others), as evidenced by the fact that it only gives the Raiders an 0.3 percent chance of making the playoffs right now.

Yeah, I'm thinking the Raiders make a big jump in team efficiency this week, which will put them in the midst of the playoff race. For the Raiders odds to go up, ours will have to go down.

We are in the driver's seat, but I'm still not really feeling it. We really need to keep winning. For example, if we lose to the Raiders this week and later lose to the Chargers, we only have a one game lead over them. People who think we've left the Chargers in our dust are dreaming.

keg in kc
11-01-2010, 10:25 PM
We are in the driver's seat, but I'm still not really feeling it. We really need to keep winning. For example, if we lose to the Raiders this week and later lose to the Chargers, we only have a one game lead over them. People who think we've left the Chargers in our dust are dreaming.That's how I see it. The Chargers are still a threat, and I'm not sure what to think about the Raiders right now. On paper I think they're better than we are, but they never seem to be able to put things together. If they've really turned some kind of a corner, we could just be getting our hopes up (prematurely I still think) just in time to get our hearts ripped out of our chests the second half of the year.

tk13
11-01-2010, 10:40 PM
Well of course we need to keep winning. Nothing is safe when there's 9 games left. But I do think our schedule is more favorable. Especially compared to Oakland. They still have to play Miami, Pittsburgh and Indy. If they've turned a corner maybe they can beat those teams. I'm more worried about San Diego's schedule, but hopefully their road problems continue. They still have Houston/Indy/Cincy on the road. Then again I'm not sure about any of our remaining road games.

DaneMcCloud
11-01-2010, 10:46 PM
I'm holding out for 13-3.

Has a nice ring to it.

Yeah, kind of like One-And-Done.

Rausch
11-01-2010, 11:04 PM
Yeah, kind of like One-And-Done.

I'll take 12-4 any day of the week...

Rausch
11-01-2010, 11:07 PM
Not really. My software still thinks it is the Chargers that we need to worry about. The team efficiency ratings going into today had SD as one of the best teams in the league. Oakland is one of the worst teams in the league. Today will move them up a bit, but nothing drastic. The Raiders are only one game ahead of SD, and that pales in comparison to their expected performance going forward.

So right now for winning the division it looks like

KC: 85
SD: 13
Denver: 1
Oakland: 0.2

I'd say you need to do some fine tuning.

Oakland is winning, CONVINCINGLY, and SD is lucky to win at all.

Norv will be lucky to finish the season as HC. Their rookie HB is banged up and not at all the superman they expected, their gamble on holdout players backfired, and their WR's are hurting and practice squad quality right now.

Guru
11-01-2010, 11:17 PM
Yeah, kind of like One-And-Done.BINGO

I don't ever want to see 13-3 again.

cdcox
11-01-2010, 11:19 PM
I'd say you need to do some fine tuning.

Oakland is winning, CONVINCINGLY, and SD is lucky to win at all.

Norv will be lucky to finish the season as HC. Their rookie HB is banged up and not at all the superman they expected, their gamble on holdout players backfired, and their WR's are hurting and practice squad quality right now.

That post was before Sunday's games, so it is out of date. I'm waiting to update until Wednesday, when the new efficiency ratings come out. Oakland will probably move up some. SD has lost a lot of games with bad special teams and fluke plays. If they fix those, there is not a team in the league that is playing better. They beat a really sound Tennessee team on Sunday. In the long run, I worry more about them than Oakland.

ROYC75
11-01-2010, 11:22 PM
BINGO

I don't ever want to see 13-3 again.


Awh crap, bring it on, it can't be jinxed for life, law of averages has to open up one day ?:eek:

Rausch
11-01-2010, 11:29 PM
That post was before Sunday's games, so it is out of date. I'm waiting to update until Wednesday, when the new efficiency ratings come out. Oakland will probably move up some. SD has lost a lot of games with bad special teams and fluke plays. If they fix those, there is not a team in the league that is playing better. They beat a really sound Tennessee team on Sunday. In the long run, I worry more about them than Oakland.

Gates is banged up, both starting WR's are banged up, their starting HB is banged up. The only playmaker that helped them get that great offensive ranking that isn't hurt is Rivers.

Their next 4 games are the Texans, Donks, Colts, and raiders.

No fucking way they win more than two of those games all banged up...

cdcox
11-03-2010, 11:07 AM
The Raiders improved in the Team Efficiency Ratings this week, but not enough to put much of a dent in the Chief playoff hopes. See the OP for current predictions for the Chiefs.

AFC West odds of winning the Division:
KC 83%
SanDiego 16%
Oakland 1%
Denver just a little above zero.

I think Oakland's odds are a little better than my software is predicting. However, they have a lot of tough games on the schedule. They will have to play some good football to get to 9 wins, which would probably not be enough. So my gut says maybe 2 or 3%.

San Diego is still the team to keep an eye on. If they can limit mistakes, they can easily get to 10 wins.

Rausch
11-03-2010, 11:13 AM
San Diego is still the team to keep an eye on. If they can limit mistakes, they can easily get to 10 wins.

I doubt that. Their schedule isn't easy and their whole offense is banged up...

Claynus
11-03-2010, 11:15 AM
San Diego really only has three tough games left:

Indy, Houston, KC

The rest is a bunch of shit they should destroy: Denver, Oakland, San Francisco, Cincy, Denver

I think they're headed for 9-7.

And if Cassel shits the bed in San Diego, we'll get our ass handed to us.

Rausch
11-03-2010, 11:23 AM
San Diego really only has three tough games left:

Indy, Houston, KC

The rest is a bunch of shit they should destroy: Denver, Oakland, San Francisco, Cincy, Denver

I think they're headed for 9-7.

And if Cassel shits the bed in San Diego, we'll get our ass handed to us.

If they don't get healthy they could lose any of those games.

Both starting WR's, Gates, and their HB are all banged up or will miss next week.

I don't care what your offense WAS rated, if none or most of those players that helped you rank that high aren't on the field it doesn't matter.

cdcox
11-07-2010, 06:09 PM
Big swing in odds this week. Way to go guys.

B_Ambuehl
11-07-2010, 10:43 PM
If they don't get healthy they could lose any of those games.

Both starting WR's, Gates, and their HB are all banged up or will miss next week.

I don't care what your offense WAS rated, if none or most of those players that helped you rank that high aren't on the field it doesn't matter.

Rivers threw for 4 TDs and ~300 yds against Houston with literally a practice squad receiving core and no Gates. They have a bye next week and the following week Gates and Malcom Floyd will be back against Denver at home. The week after that they get Vincent Jackson back.

Cassell better get his shit together.

KChiefs1
11-07-2010, 10:52 PM
OFFICIAL PROJECTION AFTER WEEK 8:

Chances of Winning the Division: 83%
Chances of Making the Playoffs: 89%
Median Projected Wins: 11

CURRENT PROJECTION (NOT OFFICIAL UNTIL WEDNESDAY):
Chances of Winning the Division: 64%
Chances of Making the Playoffs: 76%
Median Projected Wins: 11<!-- / message --><!-- edit note -->

Wow a -19% loss on winning the division & -13% loss on making the playoffs!

That game today really did hurt huh?

I assume since we are still projected to go 11-5 the other teams in the division(Chargers & Raiders) projected wins went up drastically?

KChiefs1
11-07-2010, 10:54 PM
Rivers threw for 4 TDs and ~300 yds against Houston with literally a practice squad receiving core and no Gates. They have a bye next week and the following week Gates and Malcom Floyd will be back against Denver at home. The week after that they get Vincent Jackson back.

Cassell better get his shit together.

Ok...we all know the limitations of Matty Nice but to blame him for the losses we've had is just crazy. He is never going to be Peyton Manning much less Eli Manning but I find it hard to blame him for everything wrong with the Chiefs.

cdcox
11-07-2010, 11:00 PM
Wow a -19% loss on winning the division & -13% loss on making the playoffs!

That game today really did hurt huh?

I assume since we are still projected to go 11-5 the other teams in the division(Chargers & Raiders) projected wins went up drastically?

Almost all the ground we lost was to the Chargers. We lost a full game to them today. Raiders have some tough games ahead and probably will eliminate themselves from the division race.

The 11 wins is just a median of a distribution. It is kind of a crude estimate. Had we won today, the median projected wins might have bumped up to 12.

cdcox
11-10-2010, 07:10 AM
The Chiefs went down significantly in team efficiency this week. Right now the division looks like:

KC: 51.2%
SD: 45.5%
OAK: 3.2%
DEN: 0.1%

The good news is that we play some of the worst teams in efficiency rating the rest of the season: Oakland 22nd, Denver 24th (twice), St. Louis 29th, Seattle 31st, Arizona 32nd. We will be better than a 65% favorite in all of those games and better than 75% favorite in all but 2. If we could take care of those games, it would give us 11 wins.

But we have to get back to Chiefs football. No turnovers. Very few penalties. Run the ball efficiently on first and second down. Efficient passing with no sacks. Stop the run. Prevent big plays. We failed in all of these areas against Oakland. It's not sexy, it won't win the SB, but it would get us to the playoffs. And for this year, with this QB, that's enough.

cdcox
11-14-2010, 06:23 PM
Today was one game. We're still very much in the thick of the wild card race if we can get back to how we were playing in the early season. The key is to get to 10 wins. Obviously we can't do that playing like we did today, but it was one game.

On the other hand, if we keep playing like today, I'll start a draft pick thread.

cdcox
11-22-2010, 09:22 PM
Updated assuming San Diego wins tonight.

It's time for an updated titty graph. Going 10 - 6 only gives us a 55% chance for making the playoffs. As I pointed out last night, the key game is against the Chargers. We really need to win that game in order to have a good chance to win the division. Not looking good.

FAX
11-22-2010, 09:48 PM
Updated assuming San Diego wins tonight.

It's time for an updated titty graph. Going 10 - 6 only gives us a 55% chance for making the playoffs. As I pointed out last night, the key game is against the Chargers. We really need to win that game in order to have a good chance to win the division. Not looking good.

Good looking graph, Mr. cdcox. Very perky.

I don't understand something, though. How is it that we win another game and our chances for making the playoffs decrease that dramatically?

Is it because the Eggos are winning again?

FAX

cdcox
11-22-2010, 09:56 PM
Good looking graph, Mr. cdcox. Very perky.

I don't understand something, though. How is it that we win another game and our chances for making the playoffs decrease that dramatically?

Is it because the Eggos are winning again?

FAX

The loss to Oakland dropped our chances of winning the division from 83 to 51
The loss to Denver dropped our chances of winning the division from 51 to 38
Winning this week dropped our chances of winning the division from 38 to 37, so the drop wasn't very dramatic. Not sure if this was the reason, but it could happen if the chances of the Broncos pulling an upset over the Chargers was greater than the chances of Arizona pulling an upset over us.

I was always worried about SD. They are an explosive team and now they are hot.

Guru
11-22-2010, 09:58 PM
The loss to Oakland dropped our chances of winning the division from 83 to 51
The loss to Denver dropped our chances of winning the division from 51 to 38
Winning this week dropped our chances of winning the division from 38 to 37, so the drop wasn't very dramatic. Not sure if this was the reason, but it could happen if the chances of the Broncos pulling an upset over the Chargers was greater than the chances of Arizona pulling an upset over us.

I was always worried about SD. They are an explosive team and now they are hot.Seems odd that we would still drop after a win.

either way, next week is a must win game.

DaneMcCloud
11-22-2010, 09:59 PM
I think the Chiefs will need to win five of their final six games to make the playoffs.

FAX
11-22-2010, 10:01 PM
The loss to Oakland dropped our chances of winning the division from 83 to 51
The loss to Denver dropped our chances of winning the division from 51 to 38
Winning this week dropped our chances of winning the division from 38 to 37, so the drop wasn't very dramatic. Not sure if this was the reason, but it could happen if the chances of the Broncos pulling an upset over the Chargers was greater than the chances of Arizona pulling an upset over us.

I was always worried about SD. They are an explosive team and now they are hot.

Ah .... I was reading it incorrectly ... or interpreting it incorrectly, to be more precise. I didn't understand that the big drop occurred after the fade game.

That makes a lot more sense.

Please ignore my stupid posts in future.

FAX

tk13
11-22-2010, 10:03 PM
I think the Chiefs will need to win five of their final six games to make the playoffs.

Assuming that loss is @ SD, I presume. You might very well be right. If we can find a way to beat them, we probably only need to go .500. Although that would bring the Raiders back into play.

cdcox
11-22-2010, 10:05 PM
I think the Chiefs will need to win five of their final six games to make the playoffs.

If the loss is to SD, you are probably right. For example going 4 - 2 down the stretch with losses to Seattle and SD would only give us a 42% chance of making the playoffs. But going 4 - 2 down the stretch with losses to Oakland and Denver (and by implication a victory over SD) would give us a 96% chance of making the playoffs. The SD game is the whole enchilada.

DaneMcCloud
11-22-2010, 10:10 PM
If the loss is to SD, you are probably right. For example going 4 - 2 down the stretch with losses to Seattle and SD would only give us a 42% chance of making the playoffs. But going 4 - 2 down the stretch with losses to Oakland and Denver (and by implication a victory over SD) would give us a 96% chance of making the playoffs. The SD game is the whole enchilada.

Yeah, I see the loss being at San Diego.

IF the Chiefs go into San Diego and win, then the division is the Chiefs to lose.

Unfortunately, I don't think it'll be that easy. The Chargers will be fighting for their playoff lives at home and with the way they're playing, it will be an extremely tough game for the Chiefs.

cdcox
11-30-2010, 05:30 PM
Official projections updated. Despite winning the last two weeks, our playoff hopes are being crushed under the Rivers juggernaut and the lights-out SD defense.

Rain Man
11-30-2010, 05:32 PM
I demand more optimistic results. YOU WILL GIVE ME MORE OPTIMISTIC RESULTS! What if we move our Panzers west instead? I think that will work.

cdcox
11-30-2010, 05:35 PM
Things will get much brighter after we beat SD. We should change from less than 25% chance of winning the division to 95% chance of winning the division overnight. Think how cool that will be!

Buck
11-30-2010, 05:37 PM
What do those team efficiency ratings mean?

I saw SD is #1 overall.

Buck
11-30-2010, 05:43 PM
SD has been # 1 every week except Week 4 and Week 8 when they were #2 in each of those weeks.

WebGem
11-30-2010, 05:50 PM
We have a 2.212% chance of having a bye in the 1st round of the playoffs (probability of 1st seed + probability of 2nd seed)! Woot woot!!

WebGem
11-30-2010, 05:55 PM
What do those team efficiency ratings mean?

I saw SD is #1 overall.

Just looks like a bunch of ratings in various statistical categories.

WebGem
11-30-2010, 05:56 PM
LOL

In the efficiency rankings, the entire NFC West is between 25-32.

philfree
11-30-2010, 06:04 PM
Things will get much brighter after we beat SD. We should change from less than 25% chance of winning the division to 95% chance of winning the division overnight. Think how cool that will be!

Now that's my kind of cyphering!


PhilFree:arrow:

cdcox
11-30-2010, 06:08 PM
What do those team efficiency ratings mean?

I saw SD is #1 overall.

Brian (the guy who runs AdvancedNFLStats.com) did a lot of work to determine which statistics correlate most closely with winning. He found that

net yards per pass attempt for offense
net yards per rushing attempt for offense
offensive interception rate
offensive fumble rate
net yards per pass attempt for defense
net yards per rushing attempt for defense
defensive interception rate
and penalty rate

correlated most strongly with winning. Those stats account for about 78% of a team's performance on a week-in-week out basis. The other 22% are other things that are difficult to quantify, and a certain amount of "luck". So he created a weighted average of those stats to get what he calls a generic win probability (GWP). San Diego has a GWP of 0.83. This means that teams that have similar statistics as those listed above would win 83% of the time against an average NFL team playing on a neutral site.

The reason that SD had the best GWP in the league even when they were losing is that they were losing due to historically bad special teams play. Special teams are not accounted for in the GWP, nor do they tend to be reproducible week after week. SD was kind of an exception to that tendency since they had terrible special teams week after week after week. But now they are at least not giving up 14 points a week to bad special teams play. All year the stats were saying that they were a dominant team. Now they look that way on the scoreboard too.

cdcox
11-30-2010, 06:11 PM
LOL

In the efficiency rankings, the entire NFC West is between 25-32.

They are collectively terrible. 7 wins could still take that division. I hope it happens just for the comedy.

Buck
11-30-2010, 07:40 PM
Brian (the guy who runs AdvancedNFLStats.com) did a lot of work to determine which statistics correlate most closely with winning. He found that

net yards per pass attempt for offense
net yards per rushing attempt for offense
offensive interception rate
offensive fumble rate
net yards per pass attempt for defense
net yards per rushing attempt for defense
defensive interception rate
and penalty rate

correlated most strongly with winning. Those stats account for about 78% of a team's performance on a week-in-week out basis. The other 22% are other things that are difficult to quantify, and a certain amount of "luck". So he created a weighted average of those stats to get what he calls a generic win probability (GWP). San Diego has a GWP of 0.83. This means that teams that have similar statistics as those listed above would win 83% of the time against an average NFL team playing on a neutral site.

The reason that SD had the best GWP in the league even when they were losing is that they were losing due to historically bad special teams play. Special teams are not accounted for in the GWP, nor do they tend to be reproducible week after week. SD was kind of an exception to that tendency since they had terrible special teams week after week after week. But now they are at least not giving up 14 points a week to bad special teams play. All year the stats were saying that they were a dominant team. Now they look that way on the scoreboard too.

Oh okay that makes sense.

Thats a shame that one variable can throw off stats like that. Special Teams are a huge part of the game, but sounds like theres not really a way to quantify how important they are to your GWP.

philfree
12-01-2010, 03:15 PM
From looking at the Schedules of Pittsburgh and Baltimore I'm not so sure one of two won't lose 3 out of the last 5.


TEAM
BALTIMORE (8-3)- Pittsburgh, @ Houston, NO, @ Cleveland, Cincinnati


PITTSBURGH (8-3)-@Baltimore, Cincinnati, NY Jets, Carolina, @ Cleveland


Baltimore looks like they could easily drop three games.

I don't think we are out of the WildCard race if we don't beat SD but still win 11 games.

NE and the Jets have some tough games too but I don't think there is any way either of those two lose 4 of 5. I could see one of them losing 3 of 5 though.

PhilFree:arrow:

Frosty
12-01-2010, 03:35 PM
If the Chiefs go 11-5 and miss the playoffs, I'm going to blame Cassel. That would be 2 out of the last three years that a Cassel led team would go 11-5 and miss the playoffs.

He's clearly bad luck. :)

Guru
12-01-2010, 04:14 PM
If the Chiefs go 11-5 and miss the playoffs, I'm going to blame Cassel. That would be 2 out of the last three years that a Cassel led team would go 11-5 and miss the playoffs.

He's clearly bad luck. :)

It will be the new 13-3 curse.

Coogs
12-01-2010, 05:40 PM
Originally Posted by cdcox
Things will get much brighter after we beat SD. We should change from less than 25% chance of winning the division to 95% chance of winning the division overnight. Think how cool that will be!

If I have this figured right...

If we beat Denver and San Diego beats Oakland Sunday, a loss to San Diego would mean we would have to win our last three games... and that may not be enough to get us in to the playoffs at 11-5.

On the other hand, if we beat Denver and San Diego beats Oakland Sunday, a win over San Diego (gives us a two game lead over San Deigo with head-to-head tie breaker in hand) would mean we would have to lose all three of our remaining games in order for San Diego (or Oakland) to even have a chance to win the West.

Extra Point
12-01-2010, 05:45 PM
Playoffs?/Mora ad infinitum

philfree
12-01-2010, 05:47 PM
If I have this figured right...

If we beat Denver and San Diego beats Oakland Sunday, a loss to San Diego would mean we would have to win our last three games... and that may not be enough to get us in to the playoffs at 11-5.

On the other hand, if we beat Denver and San Diego beats Oakland Sunday, a win over San Diego (gives us a two game lead over San Deigo with head-to-head tie breaker in hand) would mean we would have to lose all three of our remaining games in order for San Diego (or Oakland) to even have a chance to win the West.

A lot of people seem convinced that SD will win all the other games besides the one with the Chiefs. I don't think that's a sure thing.


PhilFree:arrow:

Coogs
12-01-2010, 05:48 PM
Playoffs?/Mora ad infinitum

Yep! It's December and we are talking playoffs in KC! Beats the hell out of hoping for a higher draft pick like the last three years doesn't it?

Coogs
12-01-2010, 05:50 PM
A lot of people seem convinced that SD will win all the other games besides the one with the Chiefs. I don't think that's a sure thing.


PhilFree:arrow:


I don't either. I'm kind of hoping for a Raiders win this Sunday at San Diego... coupled with a Chiefs win over Denver. And I think both are possible. :thumb:

Extra Point
12-01-2010, 05:52 PM
Yep! It's December and we are talking playoffs in KC! Beats the hell out of hoping for a higher draft pick like the last three years doesn't it?

Yes, it does. Herm-style of backing us into the playoffs, still can't get out of my craw. We need to get in, and we'll only do it, and stay in them, in all quarters, in every fucking game.

philfree
12-01-2010, 05:55 PM
I don't either. I'm kind of hoping for a Raiders win this Sunday at San Diego... coupled with a Chiefs win over Denver. And I think both are possible. :thumb:

The Chargers have put themselves in this position to many times and this year it may just bite them on the ass. At this point they have no room for error if they want to succeed.


PhilFree:arrow:

Extra Point
12-01-2010, 06:03 PM
The Chargers have put themselves in this position to many times and this year it may just bite them on the ass. At this point they have no room for error if they want to succeed.


PhilFree:arrow:

And we don't? /CaneMcCloud/

Coogs
12-01-2010, 06:10 PM
The Chargers have put themselves in this position to many times and this year it may just bite them on the ass. At this point they have no room for error if they want to succeed.


PhilFree:arrow:

Yep. And Oakland isn't that bad of team. Much like us in many respects. Put themselves in good position... then followed it up with a couple of clunkers in a row. And now they find themselves in a desperate situation... much like we were when Arizona came to town.

Oakland is playing for their lives Sunday. And I may be the only Chiefs fan that thinks this, but I expect them to put together a pretty good game Sunday.

Extra Point
12-01-2010, 06:15 PM
Yep. And Oakland isn't that bad of team. Much like us in many respects. Put themselves in good position... then followed it up with a couple of clunkers in a row. And now they find themselves in a desperate situation... much like we were when Arizona came to town.

Oakland is playing for their lives Sunday. And I may be the only Chiefs fan that thinks this, but I expect them to put together a pretty good game Sunday.

EXACTLY! Which is why this next game for us, is the biggest game of the season!

Coogs
12-01-2010, 06:24 PM
EXACTLY! Which is why this next game for us, is the biggest game of the season!

Yep! Huge game for us this weekend!

And another point on the Oakland/Bolts game. I half way expect the Chargers to be not at their sharpest, with a little letdown possibly happening after their beatdown of the Colts... and thier bandwagon filling up as much as it has these past few days. Could be wrong, but that is what I am hoping.

philfree
12-01-2010, 06:32 PM
Yep! Huge game for us this weekend!

And another point on the Oakland/Bolts game. I half way expect the Chargers to be not at their sharpest, with a little letdown possibly happening after their beatdown of the Colts... and thier bandwagon filling up as much as it has these past few days. Could be wrong, but that is what I am hoping.

On the same token we won't be looking past this week to the Chargers match up because of the fact that it's Denver and what they did to us just a few short weeks ago.


PhilFree:arrow:

Coogs
12-01-2010, 06:35 PM
On the same token we won't be looking past this week to the Chargers match up because of the fact that it's Denver and what they did to us just a few short weeks ago.


PhilFree:arrow:


This

DA_T_84
12-01-2010, 06:59 PM
If we when this week, do we mathematically eliminate Denver?

FAX
12-01-2010, 07:01 PM
No offense, Mr. cdcox, but this is starting to piss me off.

We win, but our chances are lessened? Damn, man.

Fudge some numbers, dude.

FAX

The Bad Guy
12-01-2010, 07:51 PM
I think the Chargers can have a letdown against Oakland. I mean, how long can you continue to roll with backups on offense? Gates isn't close to 100%, Floyd has a hammy, VJax is out and so is Crayton.

The Raiders do have dynamic special teams, so that could spell trouble for SD. I don't think all their problems are cured.

cdcox
12-01-2010, 09:15 PM
If we when this week, do we mathematically eliminate Denver?

Yes

kysirsoze
12-01-2010, 09:18 PM
Yes

:grovel:

Guru
12-01-2010, 09:58 PM
Yep. And Oakland isn't that bad of team. Much like us in many respects. Put themselves in good position... then followed it up with a couple of clunkers in a row. And now they find themselves in a desperate situation... much like we were when Arizona came to town.

Oakland is playing for their lives Sunday. And I may be the only Chiefs fan that thinks this, but I expect them to put together a pretty good game Sunday.This will be three times this year I am rooting for the damn Raiders. I feel so dirty.

FAX
12-01-2010, 10:12 PM
I think the Chargers can have a letdown against Oakland. I mean, how long can you continue to roll with backups on offense? Gates isn't close to 100%, Floyd has a hammy, VJax is out and so is Crayton.

The Raiders do have dynamic special teams, so that could spell trouble for SD. I don't think all their problems are cured.

This may be of some interest to you, Mr. The Bad Guy ...

A couple of nights ago, I had a strange dream in which my homer bone suddenly grew to an enormous size and spontaneously sprouted giant, white, feathery wings. I was then able to mount my newly winged homer bone super cruiser and ride it into the sky, through the clouds, and into Heaven itself. After traversing Heaven's main drag a couple of times, I finally wheeled into a hitching post in front of a pub built completely of solid, shining gold and silver with ruby and topaz windows and an ancient-looking parchment menu posted by the door boasting a surf and turf special - salad included at no extra charge. So I lashed my steed, sauntered in, took a seat at the bar, and ordered a double bourbon and some Triscuits. Whilst sipping my drink, I overheard several badass Angels who were shooting bumper pool and prophesying about the Sparks. The extreme altitude affected my hearing and the jukebox was loud, so it wasn't perfectly clear, but they either said that the Eggos would start blowing games or start bowling games ... one or the other. However, since there isn't a single bowling alley in San Diego that doesn't have a serious and well-documented problem with rental shoe mites, I'm figuring it was the former.

Usually, when I have a dream about bumper pool, it comes true, so I'm thinking things should start falling into place for us.

FAX

Discuss Thrower
12-02-2010, 08:56 AM
Brian (the guy who runs AdvancedNFLStats.com) did a lot of work to determine which statistics correlate most closely with winning. He found that

net yards per pass attempt for offense
net yards per rushing attempt for offense
offensive interception rate
offensive fumble rate
net yards per pass attempt for defense
net yards per rushing attempt for defense
defensive interception rate
and penalty rate

correlated most strongly with winning. Those stats account for about 78% of a team's performance on a week-in-week out basis. The other 22% are other things that are difficult to quantify, and a certain amount of "luck". So he created a weighted average of those stats to get what he calls a generic win probability (GWP). San Diego has a GWP of 0.83. This means that teams that have similar statistics as those listed above would win 83% of the time against an average NFL team playing on a neutral site.

The reason that SD had the best GWP in the league even when they were losing is that they were losing due to historically bad special teams play. Special teams are not accounted for in the GWP, nor do they tend to be reproducible week after week. SD was kind of an exception to that tendency since they had terrible special teams week after week after week. But now they are at least not giving up 14 points a week to bad special teams play. All year the stats were saying that they were a dominant team. Now they look that way on the scoreboard too.

Does that formula take info consideration time left in game? As in penalties in the 4th quarter is much more damaging than one in the first?

The Bad Guy
12-02-2010, 08:58 AM
This may be of some interest to you, Mr. The Bad Guy ...

A couple of nights ago, I had a strange dream in which my homer bone suddenly grew to an enormous size and spontaneously sprouted giant, white, feathery wings. I was then able to mount my newly winged homer bone super cruiser and ride it into the sky, through the clouds, and into Heaven itself. After traversing Heaven's main drag a couple of times, I finally wheeled into a hitching post in front of a pub built completely of solid, shining gold and silver with ruby and topaz windows and an ancient-looking parchment menu posted by the door boasting a surf and turf special - salad included at no extra charge. So I lashed my steed, sauntered in, took a seat at the bar, and ordered a double bourbon and some Triscuits. Whilst sipping my drink, I overheard several badass Angels who were shooting bumper pool and prophesying about the Sparks. The extreme altitude affected my hearing and the jukebox was loud, so it wasn't perfectly clear, but they either said that the Eggos would start blowing games or start bowling games ... one or the other. However, since there isn't a single bowling alley in San Diego that doesn't have a serious and well-documented problem with rental shoe mites, I'm figuring it was the former.

Usually, when I have a dream about bumper pool, it comes true, so I'm thinking things should start falling into place for us.

FAX

You have a gift. A true gift.

Rudy lost the toss
12-02-2010, 09:06 AM
Christ.... these stats suck ass. No way does this team make the playoffs 9/10 times after just 6 games. Then the chiefs go 3-2 and that number falls to 4/10....

Basically these stats tell you nothing.

Rausch
12-02-2010, 09:06 AM
You have a gift. A true gift.

And apparently its name is mescaline...

cdcox
12-05-2010, 05:27 PM
Updated.

11 Wins guarantees the playoffs.
10 Wins is a 50/50 chance.

Rain Man
12-05-2010, 05:28 PM
Updated.

11 Wins guarantees the playoffs.
10 Wins is a 50/50 chance.


I demanded more optimistic projections and I got them. Thank you for listening to your customers.

Rudy lost the toss
12-05-2010, 05:33 PM
I believe If the Chargers win out, they'll still hold the tiebreaker if the chiefs lost an additional game....unfortunately

Chiefs Pantalones
12-05-2010, 05:34 PM
So if we beat the Chargers and Raiders lose, all we need to do is win one game to win the division?

KC_Connection
12-05-2010, 05:35 PM
So if we beat the Chargers and Raiders lose, all we need to do is win one game to win the division?
Yeah, if we beat the Chargers and the Raiders lose next week, we'll only need 1 more Raiders loss or Chiefs win to make it.

The Bad Guy
12-05-2010, 05:36 PM
I believe If the Chargers win out, they'll still hold the tiebreaker if the chiefs lost an additional game....unfortunately

It depends on the other game. If it's divisional, it's a killer.

San Diego currently has a 1-3 divisional record. If they beat us next week, we have the same divisional record with a game lead.

The notion that SD is going to run the table now is mute. They are a bad road team (and their win against Indy now doesn't seem all that special after Dallas got them this week). They'll lose to Cincinnati in Week 16.

We should still approach this like next week is our playoff game so we can put a nail in that fucker Norv's coffin once and for all.

Rudy lost the toss
12-05-2010, 05:40 PM
Other 2 games are "common games" which would be the 3rd tiebreaker. A loss would give us three losses to SD's two. Lose to oakland and SD wouldn't need the 3rd tiebreaker.

Bearcat
12-05-2010, 05:45 PM
The notion that SD is going to run the table now is mute.

At the same time, the Chiefs continue to silence their own critics.

BigRedChief
12-05-2010, 05:52 PM
Yeah, if we beat the Chargers and the Raiders lose next week, we'll only need 1 more Raiders loss or Chiefs win to make it.We wn 3 out of 4, at the least, we win the AFC West and get a home playoff game no matter which games we win or lose or what any other team does in the NFL. And depending on other teams, a possible home playoff game and a bye.

The Bad Guy
12-05-2010, 05:54 PM
I think the Chargers can have a letdown against Oakland. I mean, how long can you continue to roll with backups on offense? Gates isn't close to 100%, Floyd has a hammy, VJax is out and so is Crayton.

The Raiders do have dynamic special teams, so that could spell trouble for SD. I don't think all their problems are cured.

Self High Five.

phillip
12-05-2010, 05:56 PM
Updated.

11 Wins guarantees the playoffs.
10 Wins is a 50/50 chance.

So there is a 50% chance that either SD or Oak wins out? Seems high at this point.

CaliforniaChief
12-05-2010, 05:59 PM
It depends on the other game. If it's divisional, it's a killer.

San Diego currently has a 1-3 divisional record. If they beat us next week, we have the same divisional record with a game lead.

The notion that SD is going to run the table now is mute. They are a bad road team (and their win against Indy now doesn't seem all that special after Dallas got them this week). They'll lose to Cincinnati in Week 16.

We should still approach this like next week is our playoff game so we can put a nail in that fucker Norv's coffin once and for all.

I agree with this 100%. We need to take this division by the throat this week. We've been given a golden opportunity and now we need to put it away.

EyePod
12-05-2010, 06:05 PM
It depends on the other game. If it's divisional, it's a killer.

San Diego currently has a 1-3 divisional record. If they beat us next week, we have the same divisional record with a game lead.

The notion that SD is going to run the table now is mute. They are a bad road team (and their win against Indy now doesn't seem all that special after Dallas got them this week). They'll lose to Cincinnati in Week 16.

We should still approach this like next week is our playoff game so we can put a nail in that ****er Norv's coffin once and for all.

But I don't want Norv to stop being the SD coach. He's the only thing holding them back!

Now put a nail in Rivers's coffin... I'll take that shit any day!

RINGLEADER
12-05-2010, 06:31 PM
So there is a 50% chance that either SD or Oak wins out? Seems high at this point.

I don't see Oakland winning out.

I think it's all about us and San Diego.

If KC wins next week it's over.

If KC loses next week we have to lose 1 more game. If we do and San Diego wins out then we're out of the division title since the Chargers would end up with an 8-4 in common opponents (while KC would have a 7-5 record).

RINGLEADER
12-05-2010, 06:31 PM
It is so nice to have the Chiefs in a position where these kinds of posts can even be written ;)

KChiefs1
12-05-2010, 06:35 PM
Chiefs can clinch the division with a win next week correct?

cdcox
12-05-2010, 06:37 PM
Chiefs can clinch the division with a win next week correct?

No. We can eliminate SD, but even if we win and Oakland loses we don't clinch.

nychief
12-05-2010, 06:41 PM
Lets just punch SD in the face... then we it is ours to lose.

HemiEd
12-05-2010, 06:42 PM
It is so nice to have the Chiefs in a position where these kinds of posts can even be written ;)

Yeah, it is so much more fun than speculating on draft picks in November.

One more, FUCK YOU HERM fucking Edwards!!

ROYC75
12-05-2010, 07:05 PM
Self High Five.

Indeed, give yourself a hand. Plus Rausch, he claimed Oakland would win.

Marty Mac Ver 2.0
12-05-2010, 07:14 PM
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gqdNe8u-Jsg

WebGem
12-05-2010, 07:18 PM
No. We can eliminate SD, but even if we win and Oakland loses we don't clinch.

Yep.

It's because Oakland will be 3 games behind us, and if we lost our last 3 games and they won their last 3, we'd be tied and they'd have swept us.

That's obviously extremely likely if that's the case going into the last 3 games, so hopefully we don't win and watch Oakland lose next week. ROFL

BigRedChief
12-05-2010, 07:20 PM
Yep.

It's because Oakland will be 3 games behind us, and if we lost our last 3 games and they won their last 3, we'd be tied and they'd have swept us.

That's obviously extremely likely if that's the case going into the last 3 games, so hopefully we don't win and watch Oakland lose next week. ROFLJust win 3 out of 4 and its over.

Raiderhader
12-05-2010, 07:41 PM
Just win 3 out of 4 and its over.


Just win all 4 and there is absolutely nothing to question or worry about.

philfree
12-05-2010, 07:53 PM
If we beat the Charges and the Raiders lose to the Jags we'll only have to win one more game to clinch the division.

We just need to finish off the Chargers once and for all next week.


PhilFree:arrow:

cdcox
12-05-2010, 09:44 PM
Heh. Chargers as the 6th seed visiting the Chiefs as the 3rd. Not that far fetched.

Guru
12-05-2010, 09:55 PM
Heh. Chargers as the 6th seed visiting the Chiefs as the 3rd. Not that far fetched.What scenario brings that to fruition?

The Bad Guy
12-05-2010, 09:58 PM
Heh. Chargers as the 6th seed visiting the Chiefs as the 3rd. Not that far fetched.

Yeah it is.

The Chargers have been a team that's been overhyped strictly based on their past late season success.

They are a bad road team that's banged up.

Some of you just won't let this legend of their dominance die.

Claynus
12-05-2010, 10:00 PM
Heh. Chargers as the 6th seed visiting the Chiefs as the 3rd. Not that far fetched.

I'm guessing this involves the Jets really blowing it down the stretch.

They have to play New England, Miami, Pittsburgh and Chicago.

What are the Colts chances at this point? I don't want to see them at Arrowhead.

tk13
12-05-2010, 10:01 PM
The Chargers are the greatest 6-6 team OF ALL TIME.

I don't mean to over dramatize, but let's just say, '10 Chargers vs. '85 Bears, I'd take the Chargers, 42-6.

cdcox
12-05-2010, 10:04 PM
What scenario brings that to fruition?

Chargers win out to finish 10-6

KC finishes 11-5.

Baltimore or the Jets drop to 10-6.

cdcox
12-05-2010, 10:07 PM
I'm guessing this involves the Jets really blowing it down the stretch.

They have to play New England, Miami, Pittsburgh and Chicago.

What are the Colts chances at this point? I don't want to see them at Arrowhead.

There odds of the Colts making the playoffs are only about 40% right now. I'd love to see them visit Arrowhead, because most likely that would be in the AFC Championship game.

Pitt Gorilla
12-05-2010, 10:10 PM
The notion that SD is going to run the table now is mute.Was there an accident of some sort?

tk13
12-05-2010, 10:10 PM
Miami had a legit shot to put their name back in the race if they didn't blow it against Cleveland today. Cleveland probably won't make the playoffs, but with their schedule, they have a legit shot to go 7-7 and be "in the hunt" with a couple weeks to go.

Rain Man
12-05-2010, 10:28 PM
The Chargers are the greatest 6-6 team OF ALL TIME.

I don't mean to over dramatize, but let's just say, '10 Chargers vs. '85 Bears, I'd take the Chargers, 42-6.


Is that if they had a tiny mini-Sproles, or a ... wait, there is no other option.

Coogs
12-06-2010, 08:55 AM
I just ran the last 4 games through that playoff machine over in the other thread. If we lose at San Diego and at St. Louie and win our two home games aganist Titans and Raiders, AND the Chargers win all 4 of their games, the Chargers would be in, we would not.

cdcox
12-15-2010, 11:22 PM
Our playoff odds took a real beating this week. Only part of that can be attributed to losing to SD. The rest of the drop in playoff odds came because we took such a beating that it dropped our efficiency ratings and thus our predicted chances of winning remaining games.

SLAG
12-15-2010, 11:35 PM
Our playoff odds took a real beating this week. Only part of that can be attributed to losing to SD. The rest of the drop in playoff odds came because we took such a beating that it dropped our efficiency ratings and thus our predicted chances of winning remaining games.

So what you're saying is the software dosen't tell the whole story....


:p
;)
:D

cdcox
12-19-2010, 02:21 PM
Back to being the favorite!

CURRENT PREDICTION (unoffical until Wednesday)

Chances of Winning the Division: 54%
Chances of Making the Playoffs: 58%
Median Projected Wins: 10 wins

|Zach|
12-19-2010, 02:22 PM
Back to being the favorite!

CURRENT PREDICTION (unoffical until Wednesday)

Chances of Winning the Division: 54%
Chances of Making the Playoffs: 58%
Median Projected Wins: 10 wins

Yay!

DeezNutz
12-19-2010, 02:23 PM
So the Miami loss bumped the wildcard possibility, right? And we should hope for a Jets collapse.

cdcox
12-19-2010, 02:34 PM
So the Miami loss bumped the wildcard possibility, right? And we should hope for a Jets collapse.

Yep. We're Steeler fans for the next 3 hours.

aturnis
12-19-2010, 02:35 PM
and Indy too I believe. If they lose next week, it'll make our wildcard chances better...

Claynus
12-19-2010, 02:35 PM
I find it interesting the odds are still low since we have two home games against losers.

Is Tennessee a better team than St. Louis? I'd say it's likely.

The Oakland game still scares me.

mnchiefsguy
12-19-2010, 02:38 PM
What do you care gochiefs? After all, aren't the Chiefs just frauds anyway?

cdcox
12-19-2010, 02:40 PM
and Indy too I believe. If they lose next week, it'll make our wildcard chances better...

Indy isn't a threat for the WC. Jacksonville is a slight threat. For the WC, it would have been better for Jacksonville to win today.

cdcox
12-19-2010, 02:41 PM
I find it interesting the odds are still low since we have two home games against losers.

Is Tennessee a better team than St. Louis? I'd say it's likely.

The Oakland game still scares me.

Titans are rated about the same as the Chiefs. Raiders are rated significantly lower.

mnchiefsguy
12-19-2010, 02:43 PM
Why would it have been better for Jacksonville to win the division? Don't we have the tiebreaker with them, where we lose the tiebreaker with Indy?

The Bad Guy
12-19-2010, 02:47 PM
Titans are rated about the same as the Chiefs. Raiders are rated significantly lower.

LOL at the Titans being rated close to the Chiefs.

Yeah, nice game against a team that has sucked for a majority of the season too, but other than that, their second half of the 2010 season is a joke.

cdcox
12-19-2010, 02:50 PM
Why would it have been better for Jacksonville to win the division? Don't we have the tiebreaker with them, where we lose the tiebreaker with Indy?

A loss by the Colts would have given them seven losses.

cdcox
12-19-2010, 03:07 PM
LOL at the Titans being rated close to the Chiefs.

Yeah, nice game against a team that has sucked for a majority of the season too, but other than that, their second half of the 2010 season is a joke.

These are the stats that are actually the most predictive of winning and predictable from one week to the next. Stats are based on full season, going into today's game.

Adjusted yards per pass attempt:
KC 6.1
Tenn 6.1
Oak 6.0

Adjusted yards per rush attempt:
KC 4.8
Tenn 4.4
Oak 4.8

Offensive interception rate (percent):
KC 1.1
Tenn 3.2
Oak 3.5

Offensive fumble rate (percent):
KC 0.6
Tenn 0.9
Oak 1.1

Defensive adjusted yards per pass attempt:
KC 6.0
Tenn 6.0
Oak 6.2

Defensive adjusted yards per rush attempt:
KC 4.3
Tenn 4.0
Oak 4.6

Defensive interception rate (percent):
KC 2.1
Tenn 3.0
Oak 2.1

Penalty rate (percent):
KC 0.36
Tenn 0.50
Oak 0.61


Oakland is similar to KC except they make more mistakes (turnovers and penalties) and play worse rush defense. Titans and Chiefs are close in many categories, but trade back and forth in terms of who the leader is.

Playing mistake free football is a huge reason we are winning this season. Cassel has done an excellent job in that area, averaging over the whole season.

cdcox
12-19-2010, 05:23 PM
OP updated to reflect all wild card chances are gone.

Buck
12-19-2010, 05:24 PM
What are the Chargers chances of making the playoffs?

The Bad Guy
12-19-2010, 05:31 PM
These are the stats that are actually the most predictive of winning and predictable from one week to the next. Stats are based on full season, going into today's game.

Adjusted yards per pass attempt:
KC 6.1
Tenn 6.1
Oak 6.0

Adjusted yards per rush attempt:
KC 4.8
Tenn 4.4
Oak 4.8

Offensive interception rate (percent):
KC 1.1
Tenn 3.2
Oak 3.5

Offensive fumble rate (percent):
KC 0.6
Tenn 0.9
Oak 1.1

Defensive adjusted yards per pass attempt:
KC 6.0
Tenn 6.0
Oak 6.2

Defensive adjusted yards per rush attempt:
KC 4.3
Tenn 4.0
Oak 4.6

Defensive interception rate (percent):
KC 2.1
Tenn 3.0
Oak 2.1

Penalty rate (percent):
KC 0.36
Tenn 0.50
Oak 0.61


Oakland is similar to KC except they make more mistakes (turnovers and penalties) and play worse rush defense. Titans and Chiefs are close in many categories, but trade back and forth in terms of who the leader is.

Playing mistake free football is a huge reason we are winning this season. Cassel has done an excellent job in that area, averaging over the whole season.

Yeah, that's all nice if you subscribe to a computer formula for accurate analysis. I don't subscribe to that.

Anyone who's actually watched the Titans and Chiefs this year can eyeball this one without a computer program.

cdcox
12-19-2010, 05:49 PM
What are the Chargers chances of making the playoffs?

48%

You still have a few WC scenarios alive, in addition to the chances of winning the West.

cdcox
12-26-2010, 05:05 PM
Updated. Just like I've been telling you guys all season long.

Talisman
12-26-2010, 05:12 PM
The question is: did you actually run it through the software to get the 100%?

The Bad Guy
12-26-2010, 05:14 PM
Prime example why no one should ever depend on a computer to tell them what's going to happen in the NFL.

Although I do appreciate your work CD.

mnchiefsguy
12-26-2010, 05:15 PM
Thanks cd for the work all season...nice to see it at 100 percent!

cdcox
12-26-2010, 05:15 PM
The question is: did you actually run it through the software to get the 100%?

Yes, just to see the awesome result.

cdcox
12-26-2010, 05:17 PM
Prime example why no one should ever depend on a computer to tell them what's going to happen in the NFL.

Although I do appreciate your work CD.

What? At any point in the season, the program tells you exactly where you stand and what your chances are going forward.

Coogs
12-26-2010, 05:17 PM
OFFICIAL PROJECTION AFTER WEEK 16:

Chances of Winning the Division: 100%
Chances of Making the Playoffs: 100%
Median Projected Wins: 11 wins

Outstanding!!! :toast:

The Bad Guy
12-26-2010, 05:20 PM
What? At any point in the season, the program tells you exactly where you stand and what your chances are going forward.

Ok, if you say so.

Bwana
12-26-2010, 05:21 PM
Chance of Chiefs Winning the AFC West As Of 12/26/2010

100% Baby!
http://cdn0.sbnation.com/imported_assets/586676/bell_ringer.gif

Rain Man
12-26-2010, 05:27 PM
after next week we'll see just how accurate this model is.
Posted via Mobile Device

Claynus
12-26-2010, 05:31 PM
Chances of winning a playoff game?

Chances of winning IT ALL?

Talisman
12-26-2010, 05:46 PM
after next week we'll see just how accurate this model is.
Posted via Mobile Device

LMAO

cdcox
12-26-2010, 05:58 PM
Chances of winning a playoff game?

Chances of winning IT ALL?

Winning a playoff game: 54%
Winning it all: 2%

Claynus
12-26-2010, 06:03 PM
Winning it all: 2%

http://www.wvmetronews.com/images/carrey_dumber.jpg

Claynus
10-27-2011, 01:58 PM
What are our odds if we beat SD?

Rausch
10-27-2011, 02:02 PM
Winning a playoff game: 54%
Winning it all: 2%

Sounds slightly skewed in our favor...