PDA

View Full Version : Chiefs Football Outsiders has more good news for Mark Castle


Count Alex's Wins
10-15-2010, 11:46 AM
On The Chiefs and Strength of Schedule (http://footballoutsiders.com/extra-points/2010/chiefs-and-strength-schedule)

Something I discovered last night -- Look at the ranks in pass defense DVOA for the Chiefs' next five opponents:
:eek::eek::eek::eek::eek:
- Week 6: Houston (31st)
- Week 7: Jacksonville (30)
- Week 8: Buffalo (32)
- Week 9: Oakland (29)
- Week 10: Denver (28)

It doesn't get too much better after that, either. They follow that with Arizona (20th), Seattle (19th), and Denver again (28th) before finally facing a pass defense that currently rates as above-average, San Diego (second).

Of course, the Broncos could get a lot better between now and Week 10. Any of these defenses could improve. But at the moment, it sure looks like Matt Cassel and company have an incredible slate of matchups ahead of them.

Now, the big question: Can a Chiefs passing offense that has looked dysfunctional at best take advantage of these opportunities? Let's go back to the fantasy matchups research that we published in Pro Football Prospectus 2007, but with updated data.

It's difficult to plug in pass defenses quite as bad as Buffalo or Houston -- both teams have pass defense DVOAs above 40%, and only one team in DVOA history (the 2009 Lions) hit that rate. Let's estimate that these teams will end up with pass defense DVOA figures in the bottom ten percent of the league. That would mean that they'd end up with a pass defense DVOA higher than 22.4%. We'll use teams with that level of performance as the baseline.

At the moment, the Chiefs have a 12.8% passing DVOA, which is good for 18th in the league. Let's assume for a moment that they're actually playing at a level worse than that; we'll say that their actual performance is between the 20th and 40th percentile of teams. That would be a range of pass offenses with a DVOA between -11.2% and 2.1%.

In the DVOA Era, there have been 168 starts with that level of pass offense versus that level of pass defense. In those games, starters have gone 19-of-31 for 221 yards with 1.4 touchdowns and 0.7 interceptions. Throw in an average of 11 rushing yards, 0.1 rushing touchdowns, and half a fumble lost, and you end up with an average of 16.5 fantasy points. On average, that's the 13th-best quarterback performance of the week.

Does that make Cassel a quarterback who's suddenly going to engender MVP votes? No. But he should be a worthwhile starter over the next few weeks for fantasy teams that need a quarterback.

milkman
10-15-2010, 11:51 AM
Until he does something to make me think otherwise, I'll just continue to refer to Cassel as the QB who's the cure for what ails a pass defense.

Detoxing
10-15-2010, 11:53 AM
Until he does something to make me think otherwise, I'll just continue to refer to Cassel as the QB who's the cure for what ails a pass defense.

This.

Houston's pass D is going to get fixed this week.

JohnnyV13
10-15-2010, 11:55 AM
Does this mean we're soon going to be bombarded with stories about how Matt Cassel has "developed'?

raybec 4
10-15-2010, 11:56 AM
Well on the third Sunday of any month that ends in R the Chiefs passing offense is ranked 4th among teams with a QB who attempts less than 40 passes while only getting sacked once and wearing a red jersey.

Count Alex's Wins
10-15-2010, 11:57 AM
In those games, starters have gone 19-of-31 for 221 yards with 1.4 touchdowns and 0.7 interceptions. x5

= 95-155, 1,105 yards, 7 TD, 3.5 INT

+ Cassel's current stats

= 58.62 %, 1,755 yards, 11 TD, 6 INT

=

83.42 RATING

http://www.bostonherald.com/blogs/sports/rap_sheet/wp-content/uploads/2010/02/e494fa1b12_pioli_0115.jpg

'Hamas' Jenkins
10-15-2010, 12:13 PM
I've said all along he's gonna end up somewhere around 18 TDs with 12 INTs and about 3000 yards which will allow the delusional horde of fucktards to claim he's developing.

After all, it only took until he was 36 for Rich Gannon to become a <del>franchise</del> system QB.

Count Alex's Wins
10-15-2010, 12:20 PM
I've said all along he's gonna end up somewhere around 18 TDs with 12 INTs and about 3000 yards which will allow the delusional horde of fucktards to claim he's developing.


And so 'Hamas' watched the next five games with baited breath, silently praying Cassel would not complete the journey to the land of mediocrity. For therein lay the horde of Fucktard True Fans, waiting to welcome their savior and messiah.

Should he make the journey, countless first-round playoff losses await.

4th and Long
10-15-2010, 12:25 PM
Until he does something to make me think otherwise, I'll just continue to refer to Cassel as the QB who's the cure for what ails a pass defense.
With all due respect, until you place some blame on dropped passes, your reference is flawed.

milkman
10-15-2010, 12:31 PM
With all due respect, until you place some blame on dropped passes, your reference is flawed.

I said that the dropped pass in the end zone by Bowe is inexcusable, as was the pass on the next play.

But the fact still remains, a QB has to come back and make plays after those kinds of mistakes.

He can't let those get inside his head, and until we have a QB that has amnesia, so to speak, we are going to have games from our QB like the last one.

Did Cassel play horribly?

No.

But did he do enough to lead this team in that game?

Nightfyre
10-15-2010, 12:38 PM
Are we going to adjust for miracle catches and drops around the league? What about dropped ints?

OnTheWarpath58
10-15-2010, 12:40 PM
Are we going to adjust for miracle catches and drops around the league? What about dropped ints?

No shit.

Let's take out both of Moeaki's TD's and take a look at the numbers.

KCtotheSB
10-15-2010, 12:55 PM
We're getting closer and closer to going from providing "career day offenses" to "career day defenses".

Hog Farmer
10-15-2010, 02:24 PM
Cassel will be a probowler after facing those D's !




















Not

Von Dumbass
10-15-2010, 02:24 PM
http://img514.imageshack.us/img514/3426/aviaryfootballoutsiders.png

keg in kc
10-15-2010, 02:36 PM
Until he does something to make me think otherwise, I'll just continue to refer to Cassel as the QB who's the cure for what ails a pass defense.We've come full circle, from fielding a career day defense to a career day quarterback.

B_Ambuehl
10-15-2010, 02:43 PM
I wonder how many $$ our front office is funneling to these various writers to make up excuses for their $60 million dollar saviour.

You know the future is glum when people are promoting Cassell as a legit fantasy QB.

Reerun_KC
10-15-2010, 02:47 PM
I wonder how many $$ our front office is funneling to these various writers to make up excuses for their $60 million dollar saviour.

You know the future is glum when people are promoting Cassell as a legit fantasy QB.

No shit dude, when Cassel was on a bye, I had to pick up Both Derek Anderson and Matt Hasselbeck... They ended up with a grand total of -7 for the week.

Kolb fucked me raw in the fantasy season already... Now I have Cassel (whom always gets solid points so far, never anything negative) Fitzpatrick and Rapemoreburger...

God these guys that take a bunch of sacks and picks freaking kill your fantasy team...

Bewbies
10-15-2010, 03:43 PM
With all due respect, until you place some blame on dropped passes, your reference is flawed.

During the broadcast on Sunday the announcers mentioned that the Colts led the league in dropped passes by a wide margin. IMPOSSIBLY they also mentioned that Peyton Manning was off to his best 4 game start of his career.

No doubt these guys were lying, because you can't be a good QB if your WR's are dropping passes.

mlyonsd
10-15-2010, 03:48 PM
I've been a wait and see guy longer than most on Cassel but I wonder if Bowe dropping that TD pass was more being surprised it was in a perfect spot than actually just dropping it.

Cassel had some ugly throws in that game.

beach tribe
10-15-2010, 04:28 PM
During the broadcast on Sunday the announcers mentioned that the Colts led the league in dropped passes by a wide margin. IMPOSSIBLY they also mentioned that Peyton Manning was off to his best 4 game start of his career.

No doubt these guys were lying, because you can't be a good QB if your WR's are dropping passes.

BOOM!

The Poz
10-15-2010, 04:37 PM
Haley and Pioli are probably thinking, if Brad Johnson and Trent Dilfer can win SB's...

Lbedrock1
10-15-2010, 04:46 PM
With all due respect, until you place some blame on dropped passes, your reference is flawed.

if you count the amount of drop passes compared to passes overthown i bet you find that his accuracy is more of a problem then dropped passes.

milkman
10-15-2010, 06:50 PM
I've been a wait and see guy longer than most on Cassel but I wonder if Bowe dropping that TD pass was more being surprised it was in a perfect spot than actually just dropping it.

Cassel had some ugly throws in that game.

One of the things you'll hear talked about is that some QBs throw "catchable balls".

Now Bowe has always had issues with drops, but when a ball is thrown both accurately and with some zip, it's more carchable.

When you have to adjust to a well placed ball that has some zip it is easier to catch.

The drop in the end zone, while still inexcusable, is tougher to adjust to because it has no zip.

headsnap
10-15-2010, 07:10 PM
- Week 6: Houston (31st)
- Week 7: Jacksonville (30)
- Week 8: Buffalo (32)
- Week 9: Oakland (29)
- Week 10: Denver (28)

those are the BC* ratings....











* Before Cassel

Pioli Zombie
10-15-2010, 07:22 PM
Cassel is the Hindenberg of quarterbacks.

BossChief
10-16-2010, 02:31 AM
Charlie Weis should win coach of the year HANDS DOWN if he can make Cassel look serviceable by years end.

As a prize, he should get a first round bright and shiny new quarterback to work that same magic on that actually has, you know, skill to work with.

Count Alex's Wins
10-16-2010, 02:33 AM
Personally speaking, if Cassel throws only 7 TDs over the next five games, I'll be very disappointed.

I'd like to see him hit 10. He should have a couple of three TD games if he's all that.

Pioli Zombie
10-16-2010, 06:19 AM
If they ever do a remake of "Paper Lion" they should cast Cassel. (Probably have to be old school to get this reference)

Mile High Mania
10-16-2010, 07:33 AM
When did KC sign Mark Castle? Is he really better than the other Cassel?

Fat Elvis
10-16-2010, 09:18 AM
those are the BC* ratings....











* Before Cassel

Esto. So esto.

RINGLEADER
10-16-2010, 12:49 PM
I said that the dropped pass in the end zone by Bowe is inexcusable, as was the pass on the next play.

But the fact still remains, a QB has to come back and make plays after those kinds of mistakes.

He can't let those get inside his head, and until we have a QB that has amnesia, so to speak, we are going to have games from our QB like the last one.

Did Cassel play horribly?

No.

But did he do enough to lead this team in that game?


I don't know the stats but he is atrocious on 3rd down. That's where he's really killing us -- not just that his accuracy is suspect and his receivers are dropping passes. Cassel (with a few exceptions) never gets the offense into a flow that produces first downs or sustains drives through the air.

OnTheWarpath58
10-16-2010, 03:18 PM
I'm SO sick of hearing about dropped passes.

The Chiefs are 20th in the league in drops with 7.

SEVEN.

Less than two drops a game is NOT the fucking problem here.

Hell, you can add all 7 drops to his completion percentage, and Cassel would still only rank 20th in the league.

http://hosted.stats.com/fb/tmleaders.asp?type=Receiving&range=NFL&rank=232

OnTheWarpath58
10-16-2010, 03:25 PM
I don't know the stats but he is atrocious on 3rd down. That's where he's really killing us -- not just that his accuracy is suspect and his receivers are dropping passes. Cassel (with a few exceptions) never gets the offense into a flow that produces first downs or sustains drives through the air.

He's a 41% passer on 3rd down, which leads to a 29% conversion percentage.

Only Buffalo is worse in the AFC, IIRC.

philfree
10-16-2010, 05:08 PM
I'm SO sick of hearing about dropped passes.

The Chiefs are 20th in the league in drops with 7.

SEVEN.

Less than two drops a game is NOT the ****ing problem here.

Hell, you can add all 7 drops to his completion percentage, and Cassel would still only rank 20th in the league.

http://hosted.stats.com/fb/tmleaders.asp?type=Receiving&range=NFL&rank=232

Doesn't the number of drops have a strong correlation to attempts? Who throws the ball less then the Chiefs?

It stands to reason that we wouldn't have as many drops as a team like the Colts who lead the league in drops. They throw the ball probably twice as many time as we do.

Maybe this should be broken down to a %.

We've lost one game and in that game Bowe dropped what should have been a sure TD. Drops like that do make a huge difference and probably more so for Cassel because of his number of attempts and the fact that he's been sucking.

Not really trying to back Cassel I'm jsut saying.


PhilFree:arrow:

OnTheWarpath58
10-16-2010, 05:12 PM
Doesn't the number of drops have a strong correlation to attempts? Who throws the ball less then the Chiefs?

It stands to reason that we wouldn't have as many drops as a team like the Colts who lead the league in drops. They throw the ball probably twice as many time as we do.

Maybe this should be broken down to a %.

We've lost one game and in that game Bowe dropped what should have been a sure TD. Drops like that do make a huge difference and probably more so for Cassel because of his number of attempts and the fact that he's been sucking.

Not really trying to back Cassel I'm jsut saying.


PhilFree:arrow:

7 drops in 106 attempts. 6%.

Surely you're not going to pin the ineptitude of the passing offense on 6% of plays.

philfree
10-16-2010, 07:24 PM
7 drops in 106 attempts. 6%.

Surely you're not going to pin the ineptitude of the passing offense on 6% of plays.


I'm not pinning anything really. Just saying that drops do count and alot when it should be a TD.

What percentage of plays is a fumble when it's just one play? Percentage be damned it's a huge play and it impacts the game. A dropped TD pass or 3rd down pass is the same as a turnover and it impacts the game. A dropped pass on 1st down if you go 3&out is like a tunrover.

On a team that scores lots of points it might not matter as much but with a team like the Chiefs it matters a great deal. And not to Cassel but to the team.

Not making excuses for Cassel.


PhilFree:arrow:

JD10367
10-16-2010, 07:30 PM
Haley and Pioli are probably thinking, if Brad Johnson and Trent Dilfer can win SB's...

Look up the career stats for Brad Johnson, Trent Dilfer, and Matt Cassel, then ask them to finish their sentence.

tk13
10-16-2010, 07:38 PM
I don't get why anyone's making excuses for either of them. Cassel has been downright terrible at times. And there was no excuse for Bowe's drops last week, just terrible. I don't give a crap what else happened in the game. It doesn't have to be an either/or thing.

Sweet Daddy Hate
10-17-2010, 02:18 AM
Charlie Weis should win coach of the year HANDS DOWN for not having Cassel whacked and dumped in the Mo. river

Fxd!