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View Full Version : Poop Playoff Odds according to footballoutsiders.com


Buzzsaw
11-04-2010, 02:32 PM
I just posted this on the Jets site (my team for those that don't know), thought you guys might like to see what the predictions/simulations are for KC

Compiled by Mike Harris

The playoff odds report plays out the season 10,000 times. A random draw assigns each team a win or loss for each game. The probability that a team will be given a win is based on an equation which considers the current Weighted DVOA ratings of the two teams as well as home-field advantage. (DVOA ratings are explained here.) Mean Wins is the average number of wins for this team over the 10,000 simulations. Odds are given for winning each playoff seed, as well as for winning the division (DIV), earning a bye week (BYE), or winning a wild card (WC). TOT represents odds of making the playoffs in any fashion.

AFC West
Team Rec WEI DVOA Mean Wins #1 #2 #3 #4 #5 #6 DIV BYE WC TOT CHANGE
KC 5-2 29.2% 11.4 19.1% 24.9% 23.2% 25.5% 0.5% 1.0% 92.7% 44.0% 1.5% 94.2% 0.4%
SD 3-5 17.0% 8.0 0.0% 0.6% 1.4% 2.9% 1.8% 7.3% 4.9% 0.7% 9.1% 14.0% 4.0%
OAK 4-4 -9.1% 7.0 0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 1.7% 0.3% 1.6% 2.3% 0.2% 1.9% 4.2% 2.3%
DEN 2-6 -24.2% 4.6 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% -0.3%

The table's a little messed up, here's a screen

http://i2.photobucket.com/albums/y13/buzzsaw51/playoffskc.jpg

Playoff Scenarios
This report lists the odds of each team

* Reaching the Conference Championship Game
* Winning the Conference Championship Game
* Winning the Super Bowl

Conf App Conf Win SB Win
NYG 50.3% 30.6% 16.0%
KC 43.1% 23.6% 13.1%
NE 41.1% 22.1% 12.0%
PIT 36.6% 19.4% 10.4%
PHI 32.7% 18.8% 10.3%
ATL 46.0% 22.5% 9.6%
GB 30.7% 14.4% 6.5%
TEN 18.3% 8.8% 5.0%
IND 17.2% 7.8% 3.8%
NYJ 17.7% 8.0% 3.7%
NO 17.7% 7.2% 2.8%
BAL 14.2% 5.8% 2.6%
MIA 5.7% 2.4% 1.2%
TB 6.8% 2.0% 0.7%
SEA 6.6% 1.9% 0.6%
SD 2.7% 1.1% 0.5%
HOU 2.6% 1.0% 0.3%
SF 1.8% 0.5% 0.2%
WAS 1.7% 0.5% 0.2%
CHI 1.6% 0.5% 0.2%
STL 1.9% 0.5% 0.1%
MIN 1.4% 0.4% 0.1%
DET 0.5% 0.2% 0.0%
OAK 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
ARI 0.4% 0.0% 0.0%
JAC 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
CLE 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
CIN 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/playoffodds

Rausch
11-04-2010, 02:33 PM
Stating the obvious.

How's our balls taste AFCW?...

JTagg7754
11-04-2010, 02:35 PM
Stating the obvious.

How's our balls taste AFCW?...

LOL you win the worst division in football. Doesn't mean you're playoff caliber. It means you're the shiniest piece of fucking shit in the pile of shit. Point is: you're still shit.

EDIT: Oh I would say this about Oakland also.... in fact, I already have.

Fumblerooski
11-04-2010, 02:40 PM
LOL you win the worst division in football. Doesn't mean you're playoff caliber. It means you're the shiniest piece of ****ing shit in the pile of shit. Point is: you're still shit.

EDIT: Oh I would say this about Oakland also.... in fact, I already have.

So if we make the playoffs by winning the division, it doesn't mean we are playoff caliber?

Rausch
11-04-2010, 02:41 PM
LOL you win the worst division in football. Doesn't mean you're playoff caliber.

Yeah, douche, that's exactly what it means...

Gadzooks
11-04-2010, 02:41 PM
The Chargers will the division again this year. They're very sneaky, (ask the Donk fans).

Rausch
11-04-2010, 02:42 PM
The Chargers will the division again this year.

Will they the whole thing?...

TheGuardian
11-04-2010, 02:44 PM
Funny. When I look at the Raiders schedule I see them with 7 wins total too.

Rausch
11-04-2010, 02:45 PM
Funny. When I look at the Raiders schedule I see them with 7 wins total too.

I see 6.

Tomato, tomatoe...

JTagg7754
11-04-2010, 02:46 PM
So if we make the playoffs by winning the division, it doesn't mean we are playoff caliber?

If you don't understand the difference and cannot comprehend it using my example, I don't feel that further explanation will help.

Gadzooks
11-04-2010, 02:47 PM
Will they the whole thing?...

But, of course.

Hydrae
11-04-2010, 02:47 PM
Giants - Chiefs Super Bowl? I think I could live with that, I am not sure how Jerry will feel about hosting the Giants for a Super Bowl in his beloved stadium. ROFL

JTagg7754
11-04-2010, 02:50 PM
Giants - Chiefs Super Bowl? I think I could live with that, I am not sure how Jerry will feel about hosting the Giants for a Super Bowl in his beloved stadium. ROFL

The Chiefs aren't even playoff caliber but you think they're Super Bowl caliber? Holy shit. Homerism has reached a new high. The Chiefs will get beat by whomever they play in round 1 and I don't even care who it is.

sportsman1
11-04-2010, 02:51 PM
This seems like a bad omen. However it sure beats backing into the playoffs like the herminator did. If we can get the monkey off our back and beat the streak and atleast win a first or second round game.. I would feel immensely better.

Fumblerooski
11-04-2010, 02:52 PM
If you don't understand the difference and cannot comprehend it using my example, I don't feel that further explanation will help.

I understand that the statement you made was poorly worded. I certainly believe you meant that even though the Chiefs win the shitty AFC west, that does not mean we can compete against other playoff competition. But unfortunately that isn't what you said. Whether you decide to admit you were vague and essentially incorrect in your statement is entirely up to you. We don't expect much from you except clowish behavior anyway...

Rausch
11-04-2010, 02:52 PM
But, of course.

LMAO

TheGuardian
11-04-2010, 02:52 PM
The Chiefs aren't even playoff caliber but you think they're Super Bowl caliber? Holy shit. Homerism has reached a new high. The Chiefs will get beat by whomever they play in round 1 and I don't even care who it is.

So if the Chiefs make the playoffs, they aren't playoff caliber?

please explain.

Fumblerooski
11-04-2010, 02:54 PM
So if the Chiefs make the playoffs, they aren't playoff caliber?

please explain.

Apparently, he (or she) doesn't feel further explanation will help...

Superturtle
11-04-2010, 02:54 PM
The Chiefs aren't even playoff caliber but you think they're Super Bowl caliber? Holy shit. Homerism has reached a new high. The Chiefs will get beat by whomever they play in round 1 and I don't even care who it is.
He's reading that from the chart, you ignorant fucknut..... Talking about us being homers, when your dumb-ass is on a Chiefs Board hoping to flame or start an argument. OF COURSE we are going to assume that the Chiefs will make it to the Super Bowl, we are Chiefs FANS!!! Please go and find a board for Raider fans and you can get a boner about McFadden padding his stats against the 32nd and 27th run defenses in the league.

kysirsoze
11-04-2010, 02:57 PM
The Chiefs aren't even playoff caliber but you think they're Super Bowl caliber? Holy shit. Homerism has reached a new high. The Chiefs will get beat by whomever they play in round 1 and I don't even care who it is.

It says right there that according to these stats we are the second most liekly team to win the Superbowl you dumbass. I know you're a worthless troll but at least read the fucking OP.

Rausch
11-04-2010, 02:58 PM
The Chiefs aren't even playoff caliber but...

Hold up there sport.

If we have a LOSING record from here on out we finish 9-7.

Honestly, that's the best any team in the AFCW (outside of KC) can hope for right now.

So how, exactly, are we not "playoff caliber?"

Gadzooks
11-04-2010, 02:59 PM
The Chiefs aren't even playoff caliber but you think they're Super Bowl caliber? Holy shit. Homerism has reached a new high. The Chiefs will get beat by whomever they play in round 1 and I don't even care who it is.

I hate to agree with JTagg7754, (with his bad reputation and all), but, you guys aren't ready to play with the big boys yet.
The Chargers offense is a juggernaut and their 'D' is in top form. You guys are doomed but thanks for coming out.

Rausch
11-04-2010, 03:00 PM
I hate to agree with JTagg7754, (with his bad reputation and all), but, you guys aren't ready to play with the big boys yet.
The Chargers offense is a juggernaut and theor 'D' is in top form.

I hope so.

Being that both the Chiefs and Raiders have managed to emasculate them only serves to give us hope for the postseason...

Superturtle
11-04-2010, 03:01 PM
I hate to agree with JTagg7754, (with his bad reputation and all), but, you guys aren't ready to play with the big boys yet.
The Chargers offense is a juggernaut and their 'D' is in top form. You guys are doomed but thanks for coming out.
GL with catching up to our record then, homeslice. Past history definitely suggest's that they can do it.

JTagg7754
11-04-2010, 03:02 PM
I understand that the statement you made was poorly worded. I certainly believe you meant that even though the Chiefs win the shitty AFC west, that does not mean we can compete against other playoff competition. But unfortunately that isn't what you said. Whether you decide to admit you were vague and essentially incorrect in your statement is entirely up to you. We don't expect much from you except clowish behavior anyway...

I'm so sorry, you are 1000000000000% correct. How could I think to be so dumb to not dumb it down a little for the majority of this board.

Hilarious that my behavior is "clowish" yet I've been told to die NUMEROUS times since being here when I was still being cordial w/ the board as well as people wishing my children were stillborn. So I will politely say "fuck off" to you much like that fat cow seems to be doing in your pic.

kysirsoze
11-04-2010, 03:02 PM
I hate to agree with JTagg7754, (with his bad reputation and all), but, you guys aren't ready to play with the big boys yet.
The Chargers offense is a juggernaut and their 'D' is in top form. You guys are doomed but thanks for coming out.

Dude. Once again. It was a reference to the OP which stated they are the most likely team to rep the AFC in the superbowl and the second most likely to win it.

Gadzooks
11-04-2010, 03:02 PM
GL with catching up to our record then, homeslice. Past history definitely suggest's that they can do it.

It should be a fun 2nd half to the season, (at least for me).

kysirsoze
11-04-2010, 03:03 PM
I'm so sorry, you are 1000000000000% correct. How could I think to be so dumb to not dumb it down a little for the majority of this board.

Hilarious that my behavior is "clowish" yet I've been told to die NUMEROUS times since being here when I was still being cordial w/ the board as well as people wishing my children were stillborn. So I will politely say "**** off" to you much like that fat cow seems to be doing in your pic.

LMAO @ weak avatar smack

Gadzooks
11-04-2010, 03:03 PM
Dude. Once again. It was a reference to the OP which stated they are the most likely team to rep the AFC in the superbowl and the second most likely to win it.

I know, I get it... I'm just sayin'.

JTagg7754
11-04-2010, 03:04 PM
I hate to agree with JTagg7754, (with his bad reputation and all), but, you guys aren't ready to play with the big boys yet.
The Chargers offense is a juggernaut and their 'D' is in top form. You guys are doomed but thanks for coming out.

Shocking the only person who gets it isn't a Chiefs fan. If I could rep, I would rep you for not being a fucking moron like majority of the locals around here.

JTagg7754
11-04-2010, 03:05 PM
LMAO @ weak avatar smack

That wasn't "avatar smack"......

kysirsoze
11-04-2010, 03:05 PM
I know, I get it... I'm just sayin'.

I think there is an extremely small fraction of CP that thinks the Chiefs have a legitimate shot at winning or even attending the Superbowl. Still, if they make the playoffs there's always a chance of making some noise and who knows?

Superturtle
11-04-2010, 03:06 PM
Shocking the only person who gets it isn't a Chiefs fan. If I could rep, I would rep you for not being a fucking moron like majority of the locals around here.
http://t0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTAmsnqwJdWDeQlVz58BnIVmheE41_yYf8EC3RyhE4LSLtEPKY&t=1&usg=__2Q4oUzCSNPJ1w6yHJfBJCIibr74=

Guru
11-04-2010, 03:06 PM
gee,those stats look strikingly familiar to cdcox's.

Rausch
11-04-2010, 03:07 PM
It should be a fun 2nd half to the season, (at least for me).

No.

Not likely...

Coogs
11-04-2010, 03:08 PM
I hate to agree with JTagg7754, (with his bad reputation and all), but, you guys aren't ready to play with the big boys yet.


I'm OK with making the playoffs, and possibly losing in the first round. Got a young team by-and-large. And if we do make the playoffs, I do not think it is written in stone that we couldn't sneak out a win or two. Gave the Colts a pretty fair run at Indy... when they had all of their weapons still playing.

JTagg7754
11-04-2010, 03:09 PM
had to edit b/c I can't post pics

No, there's a difference. If a moron (you) thinks I'm a moron, it usually bodes well for me. I hope this logic doesn't escape you.

Gadzooks
11-04-2010, 03:11 PM
I think there is an extremely small fraction of CP that thinks the Chiefs have a legitimate shot at winning or even attending the Superbowl. Still, if they make the playoffs there's always a chance of making some noise and who knows?

I realize that and the majority of posters on CP are enjoying the early success and cautious about the future. You're right you never know who's going to make noise during the playoffs. The challenge for the Chiefs will be getting there.

Fumblerooski
11-04-2010, 03:12 PM
I'm so sorry, you are 1000000000000% correct. How could I think to be so dumb to not dumb it down a little for the majority of this board.

Hilarious that my behavior is "clowish" yet I've been told to die NUMEROUS times since being here when I was still being cordial w/ the board as well as people wishing my children were stillborn. So I will politely say "**** off" to you much like that fat cow seems to be doing in your pic.

I wasn't asking you to dumb it down.. I'm asking you to smarten it up...

Being asked to die however, is inexcusable. Unless they politely asked you to die in a fire... If so, it'd be great if you took their advice.

Mr. Flopnuts
11-04-2010, 03:12 PM
The Chiefs aren't even playoff caliber but you think they're Super Bowl caliber? Holy shit. Homerism has reached a new high. The Chiefs will get beat by whomever they play in round 1 and I don't even care who it is.

Read the fucking table, dick hole. No one here would predict a SB for the Chiefs, you retard.

Rausch
11-04-2010, 03:12 PM
I realize that and the majority of posters on CP are enjoying the early success and cautious about the future. You're right you never know who's going to make noise during the playoffs. The challenge for the Chiefs will be getting there.

No, we'll get there.

We will.

The challenge, as always, will be accomplishing something once we do...

Detoxing
11-04-2010, 03:13 PM
No, there's a difference. If a moron (you) thinks I'm a moron, it usually bodes well for me. I hope this logic doesn't escape you.

When are you going to stop being a troll?

No one here is calling the Chiefs Superbowl contenders. Where do you pull this shit from? And winning the division doesn't make us Playoff caliber? According to the NFL, it does.

You are really reaching for shit dude. Chill out.

Mr. Flopnuts
11-04-2010, 03:13 PM
I hate to agree with JTagg7754, (with his bad reputation and all), but, you guys aren't ready to play with the big boys yet.
The Chargers offense is a juggernaut and their 'D' is in top form. You guys are doomed but thanks for coming out.

Dude, you've been here longer than this week, and probably plan on sticking around longer than this week. That said, beware of playing with the Raider trolls on the board if you wish your stay to be even remotely pleasant.

Hydrae
11-04-2010, 03:14 PM
The Chiefs aren't even playoff caliber but you think they're Super Bowl caliber? Holy shit. Homerism has reached a new high. The Chiefs will get beat by whomever they play in round 1 and I don't even care who it is.

I know, the chart was confusing to you but my post was directly in response to those numbers and things. I doubt the Chiefs or the Giants get to the Super Bowl but those number thingies show that, right now, they are the teams most likely to go to the big game. Would you like me to explain how some numbers are larger than others (kind of like comparing dick sizes in the jail bathroom) and what that might mean?

Coogs
11-04-2010, 03:14 PM
I realize that and the majority of posters on CP are enjoying the early success and cautious about the future. You're right you never know who's going to make noise during the playoffs. The challenge for the Chiefs will be getting there.

It's been a damn fun ride so far this year as well. Time will tell if it will all come crashing down, but it sure seems as if this team has been built and is being coached in a fashion to possibly make it to the playoffs much earlier than expected. Maybe even this season.

JTagg7754
11-04-2010, 03:15 PM
The challenge for the Chiefs will be getting there.

I don't even think that'll be a challenge. Oakland isn't ready to compete. Denver is acting like it's still November of 2009 every game and SD has dug too deep of a hole. KC will win by default. Again, they're the shiniest piece of shit in a pile of shit. They'll make it but won't do anything. Like you said, they're not ready to compete.

I hate to admit this after being on this board for a couple days and realizing how retarded majority of the fans are, but when Pioli took over and got his personnel, I knew it was only a matter of time til the Chiefs were back. Then they had a couple of great drafts and the countdown began. I don't think it's this year as it is maybe next or the year after.

But what do I know? To these fucks I'm a homer................ riiiiiiight.

Gadzooks
11-04-2010, 03:15 PM
I'm OK with making the playoffs, and possibly losing in the first round. Got a young team by-and-large. And if we do make the playoffs, I do not think it is written in stone that we couldn't sneak out a win or two. Gave the Colts a pretty fair run at Indy... when they had all of their weapons still playing.

Typical CP poster. I aplaud your realism. :clap:
You guys have a good young talented team with good coaching. I'm of the opinion that it'll be a year or 2 untill you're one of the big boys.

Superturtle
11-04-2010, 03:16 PM
No, there's a difference. If a moron (you) thinks I'm a moron, it usually bodes well for me. I hope this logic doesn't escape you.
Apparently the logic of actually READING charts that state the Chiefs are the team 2nd most likely yo make the superbowl escapes you too. Enjoy trolololing now...

Superturtle
11-04-2010, 03:17 PM
I don't even think that'll be a challenge. Oakland isn't ready to compete. Denver is acting like it's still November of 2009 every game and SD has dug too deep of a hole. KC will win by default. Again, they're the shiniest piece of shit in a pile of shit. They'll make it but won't do anything. Like you said, they're not ready to compete.

I hate to admit this after being on this board for a couple days and realizing how retarded majority of the fans are, but when Pioli took over and got his personnel, I knew it was only a matter of time til the Chiefs were back. Then they had a couple of great drafts and the countdown began. I don't think it's this year as it is maybe next or the year after.

But what do I know? To these fucks I'm a homer................ riiiiiiight.
Its the way you come onto a Chiefs board and act like an asshole that makes people dislike you.

Gadzooks
11-04-2010, 03:18 PM
Dude, you've been here longer than this week, and probably plan on sticking around longer than this week. That said, beware of playing with the Raider trolls on the board if you wish your stay to be even remotely pleasant.

Duly noted.

Coogs
11-04-2010, 03:18 PM
I don't even think that'll be a challenge. Oakland isn't ready to compete. Denver is acting like it's still November of 2009 every game and SD has dug too deep of a hole. KC will win by default. Again, they're the shiniest piece of shit in a pile of shit. They'll make it but won't do anything. Like you said, they're not ready to compete.

I hate to admit this after being on this board for a couple days and realizing how retarded majority of the fans are, but when Pioli took over and got his personnel, I knew it was only a matter of time til the Chiefs were back. Then they had a couple of great drafts and the countdown began. I don't think it's this year as it is maybe next or the year after.

But what do I know? To these fucks I'm a homer................ riiiiiiight.

Actually, we have only had one good draft with Pioli. The other good draft, 2008, belongs to Herm.

Buck
11-04-2010, 03:19 PM
One thing that is not getting much play in the media is the fact that Gates tore his plantar fascia, he is downplaying it, but it could keep him out a long time.

Rausch
11-04-2010, 03:20 PM
Typical CP poster. I aplaud your realism. :clap:
You guys have a good young talented team with good coaching. I'm of the opinion that it'll be a year or 2 untill you're one of the big boys.

I absolutely dread playing the Steelers and Ravens but outside of that, really, why couldn't we beat anyone else?...

JTagg7754
11-04-2010, 03:20 PM
I know, the chart was confusing to you but my post was directly in response to those numbers and things. I doubt the Chiefs or the Giants get to the Super Bowl but those number thingies show that, right now, they are the teams most likely to go to the big game. Would you like me to explain how some numbers are larger than others (kind of like comparing dick sizes in the jail bathroom) and what that might mean?

This forum seems infatuated w/ numbers. That's the funny thing though. You can twist and manipulate them to however you wish to make things seem glorious. I for one don't care about numbers. I actually watch teams play and I gauge my opinion off of that team based on MY observations. I know this forum of superior intellects won't agree but the Chiefs just aren't as good as those lil numbers say. Not even close.

Superturtle
11-04-2010, 03:20 PM
I believe that if the Chiefs make the Superbowl this year, it will be because of a QB change. We are not going ANYWHERE great with Matt Cassel at the helm. He's a damn good leader, but he's no Manning or Brady.

Rausch
11-04-2010, 03:21 PM
One thing that is not getting much play in the media is the fact that Gates tore his plantar fascia, he is downplaying it, but it could keep him out a long time.

THE FUCKING WHOLE CHARGERS TEAM, SAVE Crybaby, is hurt.


THE WHOLE OFFENSE.

EVERY player, save the holdout WR who's due to show up in a few weeks...

JTagg7754
11-04-2010, 03:21 PM
Its the way you come onto a Chiefs board and act like an asshole that makes people dislike you.

Ahh but see I was not an asshole when I first got here. I only followed the path your people lead me through.

Personally though, I don't give a fuck if you like me or not. I have already been requested to stick around also via rep from a couple people so obviously not everyone here is all that bad.

Superturtle
11-04-2010, 03:22 PM
This forum seems infatuated w/ numbers. That's the funny thing though. You can twist and manipulate them to however you wish to make things seem glorious. I for one don't care about numbers. I actually watch teams play and I gauge my opinion off of that team based on MY observations. I know this forum of superior intellects won't agree but the Chiefs just aren't as good as those lil numbers say. Not even close.
The Raiders definitely aren't as good as their numbers suggest. You laid the fucksmack on an ill-prepared Broncos team, who proceeded to then get beat by the 49ers, who we laid a fucksmack on earlier in the year. If you watched either of the Colts or Texans games, we were pretty damn competitive with them.

JTagg7754
11-04-2010, 03:23 PM
Actually, we have only had one good draft with Pioli. The other good draft, 2008, belongs to Herm.

That is my mistake then. I thought Pioli masterminded that also. Regardless, the personnel is getting put in place and you should be ecstatic b/c of it. I could only wish Al would relinquish control even though something got into him this past draft..... well the first half at least when he started picking football players and not combine warriors.

TheGuardian
11-04-2010, 03:23 PM
I hate to agree with JTagg7754, (with his bad reputation and all), but, you guys aren't ready to play with the big boys yet.
The Chargers offense is a juggernaut and their 'D' is in top form. You guys are doomed but thanks for coming out.

The Chargers aren't playing with the big boys right now either.

Now go get yer shinebox bitch.

Superturtle
11-04-2010, 03:24 PM
Ahh but see I was not an asshole when I first got here. I only followed the path your people lead me through.

Personally though, I don't give a fuck if you like me or not. I have already been requested to stick around also via rep from a couple people so obviously not everyone here is all that bad.
Please dont classify me in with "these" people. I only joined about a week ago and have therefore only seen you act like an asshat in defense of others posting negatively towards you...

Rausch
11-04-2010, 03:24 PM
That is my mistake then. I thought...

Stop.

Don't...

Rausch
11-04-2010, 03:24 PM
Please dont classify me in with "these" people.

Enjoy your stay...

JTagg7754
11-04-2010, 03:26 PM
The Raiders definitely aren't as good as their numbers suggest. You laid the fucksmack on an ill-prepared Broncos team, who proceeded to then get beat by the 49ers, who we laid a fucksmack on earlier in the year. If you watched either of the Colts or Texans games, we were pretty damn competitive with them.

We also competed w/ the Texans. Had the defense played like they did lately and had we made the OLine changes we recently did, maybe we would've beat them.

Also, do me a favor, how about you find my post in here or on RFN where I said Oakland is any good. Go do that for me. When you find it..... well you won't.... but you can post it here if you want.

Look what someone over there had to say about me today:

Don't waste your breath on Jtagg-- he never has anything to say positive about the Raiders. I was just arguing with him last week and always is ripping on the Raiders.

Yeah, I don't think I'm nearly the homer some of the douchebags over here wanted to assume.

Superturtle
11-04-2010, 03:26 PM
Enjoy your stay...
http://www.threadbombing.com/data/media/15/you_aint.gif

Gadzooks
11-04-2010, 03:27 PM
The Chargers aren't playing with the big boys right now either.

Now go get yer shinebox bitch.

Keep him here!

TheGuardian
11-04-2010, 03:29 PM
Keep him here!

:clap:

Detoxing
11-04-2010, 03:33 PM
Ahh but see I was not an asshole when I first got here. I only followed the path your people lead me through.

Personally though, I don't give a **** if you like me or not. I have already been requested to stick around also via rep from a couple people so obviously not everyone here is all that bad.

OF course you are going to be asked to stick around. We don't boot people for having different opinions and we actually welcome rival fans. It's obvious that you don't understand how this board works. That's why you are catching so much shit.

All of the "die in a fire" shit is just Chiefsplanet humor, but you're taking it like it's a real threat. Hence the humor they find in it.

This board has very few homers, yet you insist it's full of homers. More reason why people don't like you. You don't know what the fuck you're talking about.

No one is saying that Sunday won't be a tough game. We all know it will be. Yet you insist otherwise.

And the fact that you won't acknowledge of consistant this team has been just makes you look foolish.

And the whole "you haven't played anyone" shit is just that, shit. They took the Colts to the wire IN INDY. They beat the shit out of the Texans all game long until the Chiefs melted down in the 4th.

They have been blown out by no one and beat all the teams they're suppose to beat.

Get your head out of your ass and you'll see that this place if full of great, realistic football talk.

You come in here attacking and talking shit and undermining the teams success and you're bound to bring the homer out of anyone.

What the fuck else are they going to do? bow down to the Raider fan during Raiders week and say, "yeah, Chiefs suck". Of course you're going to get people pulling up everything they can in defense of your boneheaded, off the wall bullshit.

Quit dreaming and stop whining.

Sweet Daddy Hate
11-04-2010, 03:34 PM
Meh. He's more palatable than Chumpionsucker.

Detoxing
11-04-2010, 03:37 PM
Meh. He's more palatable than Chumpionsucker.

That guy can't even be taken seriously. I don't even respond to him anymore. He's just an idiot.

At least this guy will eventually be a good poster here like our other Raider fans. Chumpshit is just a dumber Knowmo.

Hydrae
11-04-2010, 03:38 PM
I want to know where our "regular" Raider fans are at this week. :shrug:

Mr. Flopnuts
11-04-2010, 03:38 PM
Raiders951 is the best of all the new Raiders' fans from this week, and it's not even close.

Superturtle
11-04-2010, 03:39 PM
That guy can't even be taken seriously. I don't even respond to him anymore. He's just an idiot.

At least this guy will eventually be a good poster here like our other Raider fans. Chumpshit is just a dumber Knowmo.
I hate to ask this, but who is Knowmo? Seems like the end all. be all of trollism.

Mr. Flopnuts
11-04-2010, 03:39 PM
I want to know where our "regular" Raider fans are at this week. :shrug:

My guess is they're embarrassed by this new influx of cock suckers.

Detoxing
11-04-2010, 03:39 PM
I want to know where our "regular" Raider fans are at this week. :shrug:

I was thinking the same shit. Where is Ugly Duck? That's a good Raiders fan....

Mr. Laz
11-04-2010, 03:39 PM
In the last 1/4 of the season, the teams in contention for the playoffs step-up and starting playing at a higher level. We still need to see if the Chiefs have that extra gear.

gonna be hard to do without a legit passing game

Detoxing
11-04-2010, 03:46 PM
In the last 1/4 of the season, the teams in contention for the playoffs step-up and starting playing at a higher level. We still need to see if the Chiefs have that extra gear.

gonna be hard to do without a legit passing game

I fully expect the Chargers to be right back in this thing by the end of the season. We're going to finish at 9-7 or 10-6 most likely. Hopefully the Chargers don't get on a roll like they usually do.

These next two weeks are going to go a long ways in securing the division. If we beat the Raiders this week and the Chargers drop to the Texans, I think it'd be a good bet that the Chiefs take the division.

If the opposite happens, I think we're in trouble.

Gadzooks
11-04-2010, 03:46 PM
I was thinking the same shit. Where is Ugly Duck? That's a good Raiders fan....

Despite his avi, I agree.

Gadzooks
11-04-2010, 03:50 PM
I fully expect the Chargers to be right back in this thing by the end of the season. We're going to finish at 9-7 or 10-6 most likely. Hopefully the Chargers don't get on a roll like they usually do.

These next two weeks are going to go a long ways in securing the division. If we beat the Raiders this week and the Chargers drop to the Texans, I think it'd be a good bet that the Chiefs take the division.

If the opposite happens, I think we're in trouble.

I agree.

cdcox
11-04-2010, 03:51 PM
Geez, what does a guy have to do to get noticed around here? It's not like I haven't been doing the exact same thing since the days of the Star Board. Where was FO then?

http://files.nfl-forecast.com/

Some reasons why you should use my predictions:

1) My process is transparent. I use team efficiency ratings from http://advancednflstats.com. If you are willing to read long enough, the stats are completely defined on that web site. FO, is great and everything, but what they are based on is behind the curtain. Their playoff predictions will disappear next week, never to be seen again. Good luck tracking the accuracy of their predictions over time. They take a "trust me" approach. My predictions are archived on my blog.

2) I provide an application where you can analyze scenarios. For example, what happens to our odds if we win against the Raiders this week?

http://nfl-forecast.com/

3) My tiebreakers are rock solid. I know that the tiebreakers on FO were incomplete for a while. I still don't know if they accurately handle things like 3-way ties, which occur much more commonly that you would think.

4) Chiefs-specific support on this board. I routinely provide in depth analysis of the Chiefs playoff odds (or draft position odds if we suck) on this board. In 2006, I had the exact scenario described for the Chiefs to make the playoffs and updated it throughout the day. People that were following my threads knew what it would take for weeks leading up to the end of the season. At the end of the 2007 I announced the procedure that would be used to determine the Chiefs draft position as the final FG sailed through the uprights. It took the NFL another 24 hours to sort it out.

No one else is going to be more in depth, or accurate, or timely than me.

You go posting FO playoff forecasts on here like it is the greatest thing since sliced bread and you are sticking a knife in me, bro. WTF.

Rain Man
11-04-2010, 04:22 PM
Wait a minute. You mean cdcox is doing this, too?

Rain Man
11-04-2010, 04:29 PM
I see it here and I see that cdcox's predictions also show us with a very high probability, and something that our gut feelings keep collectively saying seems high. I suspect that the reason is that these models necessarily use past performance to predict future performance, but a key injury can change future performance quite quickly.

I wonder, cdcox, if there's a justification for putting a weighting in that says something like, "if the odds are greater than 50 percent, then adjust down by some weighted factor." That factor could be based off of something simple like the proportion of times in the past seasons that teams with >50% odds actually made the playoffs. So in Week 1 the adjustment might be 50% if half the Week 1 horses don't make it, and in Week 8 it might be 77% and in Week 16 it might be 95%.

This type of adjustment would reflect not just injuries but also a simple cooling down or loss of momentum. Whadd'ya think?

Guru
11-04-2010, 04:34 PM
Geez, what does a guy have to do to get noticed around here? It's not like I haven't been doing the exact same thing since the days of the Star Board. Where was FO then?

http://files.nfl-forecast.com/

Some reasons why you should use my predictions:

1) My process is transparent. I use team efficiency ratings from http://advancednflstats.com. If you are willing to read long enough, the stats are completely defined on that web site. FO, is great and everything, but what they are based on is behind the curtain. Their playoff predictions will disappear next week, never to be seen again. Good luck tracking the accuracy of their predictions over time. They take a "trust me" approach. My predictions are archived on my blog.

2) I provide an application where you can analyze scenarios. For example, what happens to our odds if we win against the Raiders this week?

http://nfl-forecast.com/

3) My tiebreakers are rock solid. I know that the tiebreakers on FO were incomplete for a while. I still don't know if they accurately handle things like 3-way ties, which occur much more commonly that you would think.

4) Chiefs-specific support on this board. I routinely provide in depth analysis of the Chiefs playoff odds (or draft position odds if we suck) on this board. In 2006, I had the exact scenario described for the Chiefs to make the playoffs and updated it throughout the day. People that were following my threads knew what it would take for weeks leading up to the end of the season. At the end of the 2007 I announced the procedure that would be used to determine the Chiefs draft position as the final FG sailed through the uprights. It took the NFL another 24 hours to sort it out.

No one else is going to be more in depth, or accurate, or timely than me.

You go posting FO playoff forecasts on here like it is the greatest thing since sliced bread and you are sticking a knife in me, bro. WTF.
It probably didn't come across that way but that was kind of my point in my post earlier in the thread. It seems to me that they pretty much copied your playoff percentages and let it go at that.

Rausch
11-04-2010, 04:35 PM
I could be reading this wrong but it appears to question Milkman's sexual orientation...

Pasta Giant Meatball
11-04-2010, 04:38 PM
FO loves the Chiefs

cdcox
11-04-2010, 04:55 PM
I see it here and I see that cdcox's predictions also show us with a very high probability, and something that our gut feelings keep collectively saying seems high. I suspect that the reason is that these models necessarily use past performance to predict future performance, but a key injury can change future performance quite quickly.

I wonder, cdcox, if there's a justification for putting a weighting in that says something like, "if the odds are greater than 50 percent, then adjust down by some weighted factor." That factor could be based off of something simple like the proportion of times in the past seasons that teams with >50% odds actually made the playoffs. So in Week 1 the adjustment might be 50% if half the Week 1 horses don't make it, and in Week 8 it might be 77% and in Week 16 it might be 95%.

This type of adjustment would reflect not just injuries but also a simple cooling down or loss of momentum. Whadd'ya think?

I've given the problem of too much certainty early in the season a lot of thought.

The challenge is that it is a zero sum game. If you drop the Chiefs by x amount you have to increase the other teams in the division or conference by the difference in order to get the totals to sum to 100%. It would be fairly simple if you were distributing the excess uncertainty to the other three teams in the division. But the WC makes it much more complicated because some of the uncertainty needs to be distributed within the division and some needs to be distributed to teams in other divisions that might win the WC.

A while back I tried to add uncertainty to the efficiency ratings. I used the end-of-season efficiency ratings as the "true ones" and calculated how much early season efficiency ratings had historically deviated from that as a function of week. Unfortunately (should have seen it coming) the distribution of wins is almost exactly the same whether your include uncertainty in team efficiency or not. For every season that a team got worse over the course of the year, there was a season where they got better. And sometimes when you get worse, your opponents get worse too.
So that approach didn't work at all.

Another approach would be to assign the efficiency ratings as a weighted average between the published rating of the team and 0.5, which is the mean rating. The weighting factor would increase toward the published one as the season went on. I would need to test that idea to see if the league wide predictions got better or worse by doing it. Probably won't get time to try it this year.

I'm open to hearing other ideas on how to make the early season predictions more reasonable.

cdcox
11-04-2010, 05:03 PM
It probably didn't come across that way but that was kind of my point in my post earlier in the thread. It seems to me that they pretty much copied your playoff percentages and let it go at that.

No, I appreciated your earlier comment.

They use their power ratings for their predictions. Sometimes there are significant differences. For example, they have NE as a 90% playoff probability while I only estimate their odds as 72%. FO does legitimate work, it just struck in my craw. I guess I was in the mood to rant.

KCHawg
11-04-2010, 05:51 PM
I was thinking the same shit. Where is Ugly Duck? That's a good Raiders fan....


And Overhead, he's alright for a 'nuck! :D

teedubya
11-04-2010, 05:55 PM
I see the Chiefs winning one playoff game in January. But, that will be because of the run... when Cassel has to throw with the pressure of the playoffs, we will see a huge brown stain on his pants during crunchtime.

Gadzooks
11-04-2010, 06:05 PM
And Overhead, he's alright for a 'nuck! :D

Over-head's probably busy in the shed.
(I also like RedNeckRaider as far criminals go)