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View Full Version : Chiefs AccuScore: Chiefs are 60% favorite.


WebGem
11-24-2010, 05:13 PM
http://accuscore.com/game-forecast-previews/nfl/gameid,172/

Yes I know this system is heavily criticized, but at least it's better than 90% of the ESPN experts on their picks. FWIW I'm almost certain it doesn't take into effect injuries, etc. But it's at least something pointing at a Chiefs win.

The Kansas City Chiefs are a solid favorite with a 60% chance to beat the Seattle Seahawks. Jamaal Charles is projected for 51 rushing yards and a 24% chance of having at least 1 rushing TD. In the 40% of simulations where Seattle Seahawks wins, Matt Hasselbeck averages 1.25 TD passes vs 0.71 interceptions, while in losses he has a ratio of 0.87 TDs to 1.29 interceptions. Marshawn Lynch averages 54 rushing yards and 0.37 rushing TDs when Seattle Seahawks wins and 35 yards and 0.15 TDs in losses. The Kansas City Chiefs has a 71% chance of forcing more turnovers than they commit. Positive turnover margin helps them win 73% of the time. SPREADS / TOTALS: Current Point Spread is SEA +1 --- Over/Under line is 44

Hog Farmer
11-24-2010, 05:32 PM
Did it take into consideration that

#1) Flowers will be out
#2) Albert will be out
#3) Cassel sux

andoman
11-24-2010, 07:06 PM
Is Flowers definitely out?

Hog Farmer
11-24-2010, 07:32 PM
Is Flowers definitely out?

Dunno. Ask Haley.

BlueTalon
11-25-2010, 01:13 AM
"Marshawn Lynch averages 54 rushing yards and 0.37 rushing TDs when Seattle Seahawks wins and 35 yards and 0.15 TDs in losses."

The biggest variable in Lynch's performance so far has been Okung at LT -- when he's in, Lynch is effective. When he's out, Lynch struggles.

Consistent1
11-25-2010, 07:02 AM
On the subject of Lynch, he would have fared so much better in Green Bay. I still don't really understand that other than GB must have thought he wasn't focused on playing or something. I don't think Lynch and Forsett will amount to shit against us. I think with a decent offensive effort we can beat Seattle by about 10, but who knows? Our backs should do alright, and Bowe and Cassel are making some noise, so I think we be aight.

Rausch
11-25-2010, 07:03 AM
Did it take into consideration that

#1) Flowers will be out
#2) Albert will be out

:banghead:

Short Leash Hootie
11-25-2010, 07:03 AM
Did it take into consideration that

#1) Flowers will be out
#2) Albert will be out
#3) Cassel sux

1) no
2) prolly not
3) most likely

Three7s
11-25-2010, 07:13 AM
I wouldn't bet on Hasselbeck throwing a pick. The Chiefs have a complete inability to get turnovers.

Consistent1
11-25-2010, 07:31 AM
In a way this is almost like a mini-playoff type test. The Seahawks have home field, but they have issues too. We can prove something by taking them out. Will be interesting.