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View Full Version : Chiefs Current playoff situation with respect to tonight's SD - Indy game


cdcox
11-28-2010, 05:41 PM
If San Diego wins, they will still be in the driver's seat with a 71% chance of winning the division.

If Indy wins, KC will regain favorite status with a 54% chance of winning the division.

But what it really boils down to is the KC-SD game in two weeks:

If SD wins this week and in two weeks, the Chiefs odds of winning the division are: 14%

If SD wins this week but KC wins in two weeks, the Chiefs odds of winning the division are: 96%

If SD loses tonight but wins in two weeks the Chiefs odds of winning the division are: 46%

If SD loses both tonight and in two weeks against KC, the Chiefs odds of winning the division are: 99.34%

So we really need to beat SD in two weeks. An Indy win tonight mostly helps us if we lose to SD in two weeks, which we should avoid at all costs.

Huffman83
11-28-2010, 05:44 PM
I've gone cross eyed...

Buck
11-28-2010, 05:47 PM
I think you should have just waited until after tonights game.

philfree
11-28-2010, 05:48 PM
If San Diego wins, they will still be in the driver's seat with a 71% chance of winning the division.

If Indy wins, KC will regain favorite status with a 54% chance of winning the division.

But what it really boils down to is the KC-SD game in two weeks:

If SD wins this week and in two weeks, the Chiefs odds of winning the division are: 14%

If SD wins this week but KC wins in two weeks, the Chiefs odds of winning the division are: 96%

If SD loses tonight but wins in two weeks the Chiefs odds of winning the division are: 46%

If SD loses both tonight and in two weeks against KC, the Chiefs odds of winning the division are: 99.34%

So we really need to beat SD in two weeks. An Indy win tonight mostly helps us if we lose to SD in two weeks, which we should avoid at all costs.

So if the Chiefs beat the donks and the Chargers lose tonight what's that translate to? I can't imagine that the percentage of the Chiefs winning the division whouldn't go way up.

PhilFree:arrow:

Old Dog
11-28-2010, 06:27 PM
If the Chargers lose tonight, we could still lose at San Diego and win vs Denver, at St Louis, vs Tennessee, and vs Oakland (none of those seem out of the question) for 11-5 while San Diego would be 10-6.
Did I miss something?

*Am not saying all (or any) of the games are a given

cdcox
11-28-2010, 06:28 PM
So if the Chiefs beat the donks and the Chargers lose tonight what's that translate to? I can't imagine that the percentage of the Chiefs winning the division whouldn't go way up.

PhilFree:arrow:

Right this instant the Chiefs odds of winning the division are 34%. If San Diego loses tonight and we beat Denver next week, that would only lift the odds to 62%.

The big game is the KC - SD game in two weeks. If we knew right now that KC would win that game, we would have a 97% chance of winning the division based on that outcome alone.

Bottom line -- don't get too worked up about tonight's game either way.

WebGem
11-28-2010, 06:30 PM
Prolly shoulda posted this after IND/SD?

cdcox
11-28-2010, 06:34 PM
If the Chargers lose tonight, we could still lose at San Diego and win vs Denver, at St Louis, vs Tennessee, and vs Oakland (none of those seem out of the question) for 11-5 while San Diego would be 10-6.
Did I miss something?

*Am not saying all (or any) of the games are a given

That's correct, but of all the possible scenarios, that one is pretty low probability. If we lost any one of those four (Denver, St. Louis, Tennessee, or Oakland), we lose the division to a 10-6 San Diego team.

If we beat SD, we could drop any two of those games and still win the division regardless of what SD does, including tonight's game.

JD10367
11-28-2010, 06:38 PM
Even if the Chargers win tonight (which is doubtful), they're still a game behind the Chiefs and KC has a victory over them. Both teams are 1-2 in the division, although SD would be 5-3 in the AFC vs. KC's 4-4.

KC's remaining schedule: Denver, @ SD, @ St.L, Tenn, Oak
SD's remaining schedule: Oak, KC, SF, @ Cin, @ Denver

Let's say the Chargers win tonight, and both teams win next week. Then let's say the Chargers beat the Chiefs in San Diego. That would leave them both at 8-5, but the Chargers would then be 3-2 in the division and 7-3 in the AFC vs. KC's 2-3 in the division and 5-5 in the AFC. That would not bode well. So, if the Chargers manage to win tonight, it makes the KC/SD game a must-win for the Chiefs, really.

cdcox
11-28-2010, 06:41 PM
Edited for a SD win.

If San Diego wins, they will still be in the driver's seat with a 71% chance of winning the division.

<del>If Indy wins, KC will regain favorite status with a 54% chance of winning the division. </del>

But what it really boils down to is the KC-SD game in two weeks:

If SD wins <del> this week and</del> in two weeks, the Chiefs odds of winning the division are: 14%

If <del> SD wins this week but</del> KC wins in two weeks, the Chiefs odds of winning the division are: 96%

<del>If SD loses tonight but wins in two weeks the Chiefs odds of winning the division are: 46%</del>

<del>If SD loses both tonight and in two weeks against KC, the Chiefs odds of winning the division are: 99.34% </del>

So we really need to beat SD in two weeks. <del> An Indy win tonight mostly helps us if we lose to SD in two weeks, which we should avoid at all costs.</del>

Edited for a Indy Win:

<del>If San Diego wins, they will still be in the driver's seat with a 71% chance of winning the division. </del>

If Indy wins, KC will regain favorite status with a 54% chance of winning the division.

But what it really boils down to is the KC-SD game in two weeks:

<del>If SD wins this week andin two weeks, the Chiefs odds of winning the division are: 14% </del>

<del>If SD wins this week but KC wins in two weeks, the Chiefs odds of winning the division are: 96%</del>

If SD <del>loses tonight but </del> wins in two weeks the Chiefs odds of winning the division are: 46%

If SD loses <del> both tonight and </del> in two weeks against KC, the Chiefs odds of winning the division are: 99.34%

So we really need to beat SD in two weeks. An Indy win tonight mostly helps us if we lose to SD in two weeks, which we should avoid at all costs.

Bane
11-28-2010, 06:42 PM
Eh whatever.I'll just wait and see who wins the division,then to hell with all of this speculation bullshit.

philfree
11-28-2010, 06:43 PM
Right this instant the Chiefs odds of winning the division are 34%. If San Diego loses tonight and we beat Denver next week, that would only lift the odds to 62%.

The big game is the KC - SD game in two weeks. If we knew right now that KC would win that game, we would have a 97% chance of winning the division based on that outcome alone.

Bottom line -- don't get too worked up about tonight's game either way.

Only to 62%?........... That's awsome!

Isn't it?

PhilFree:arrow:

cdcox
11-28-2010, 06:45 PM
Even if the Chargers win tonight (which is doubtful), they're still a game behind the Chiefs and KC has a victory over them. Both teams are 1-2 in the division, although SD would be 5-3 in the AFC vs. KC's 4-4.

KC's remaining schedule: Denver, @ SD, @ St.L, Tenn, Oak
SD's remaining schedule: Oak, KC, SF, @ Cin, @ Denver

Let's say the Chargers win tonight, and both teams win next week. Then let's say the Chargers beat the Chiefs in San Diego. That would leave them both at 8-5, but the Chargers would then be 3-2 in the division and 7-3 in the AFC vs. KC's 2-3 in the division and 5-5 in the AFC. That would not bode well. So, if the Chargers manage to win tonight, it makes the KC/SD game a must-win for the Chiefs, really.

I view it at a must win either way. I just don;t like out chances of winning all 4 of Denver, St L, Tennessee, Oakland. We could drop a game to any of those four by just having a bad game.

cdcox
11-28-2010, 06:48 PM
Only to 62%?........... That's awsome!

Isn't it?

PhilFree:arrow:

Sort of. It will still swing on the SD-KC game.

JD10367
11-28-2010, 06:48 PM
I view it at a must win either way. I just don;t like out chances of winning all 4 of Denver, St L, Tennessee, Oakland. We could drop a game to any of those four by just having a bad game.

I agree that it's a must-win. It's far too early to be making predictions, since the best teams in the AFC are only 9-2 and within striking distance of almost everyone, but... it's looking more and more like the winner of the Pats/Jets MNF game next week will win the AFCE (probably with the #1 seed) and the loser will have a stranglehold on the #5 (1st WC) seed. And the winner of the Pittsburgh/Baltimore slugfest going on in the AFCN will get the #2 seed while the loser will have the inside track on that #6 (2nd WC) seed. I think the winner of the AFCW and AFCS are going to be the other two representatives, slotting in with the #3 and #4 seeds. We might be looking at a scenario where the Chiefs or Chargers finish with a very respectable 10-6 and don't make the playoffs.

cdcox
11-28-2010, 06:59 PM
I agree that it's a must-win. It's far too early to be making predictions, since the best teams in the AFC are only 9-2 and within striking distance of almost everyone, but... it's looking more and more like the winner of the Pats/Jets MNF game next week will win the AFCE (probably with the #1 seed) and the loser will have a stranglehold on the #5 (1st WC) seed. And the winner of the Pittsburgh/Baltimore slugfest going on in the AFCN will get the #2 seed while the loser will have the inside track on that #6 (2nd WC) seed. I think the winner of the AFCW and AFCS are going to be the other two representatives, slotting in with the #3 and #4 seeds. We might be looking at a scenario where the Chiefs or Chargers finish with a very respectable 10-6 and don't make the playoffs.

You're right, it is way too early to make any kind of definitive statements about any of the seeds, other than the AFCW and AFCS champs seem destined for the 3 and 4 slots or vice versa.

If the Chiefs end up at 10-6 there is only a 33% chance of them making the playoffs.

A 10-6 SD team has an 80% chance of making the playoffs. The difference is that the Chargers are favored to win the all important KC-SD game.

We've got to win that game.

SenselessChiefsFan
11-28-2010, 07:01 PM
I think that the Chargers have a slightly more difficult schedule. I think that the Chiefs lose the game in SD. But, I can see the Chargers dropping a game against Cincy or the Broncos to end the season.

If the Colts win tonight, I think the Chiefs win the division. If I could pick only one game, then yes, I would pick the Chiefs beating the Chargers in San Diego. Since I don't think that happens.... I want to see them lose this game.

Ugly Duck
11-28-2010, 07:03 PM
If the Colts lose tonight, I think the Chiefs win the division.

That sounds sensible....

SenselessChiefsFan
11-28-2010, 07:08 PM
That sounds sensible....

Oops, I meant that if the Colts win tonight.....

Coogs
11-28-2010, 08:34 PM
I'm beginning to think a Wild Card spot has a chance to come out of the West. Both the Jets and Ravens have pretty tough schedules down the stretch, and the South does not seem to be all that right now either. Could be two from the West!

SNR
11-28-2010, 08:43 PM
This is really frustrating. They showed a graphic just now about how the Chargers simply don't lose EVER in December.

I will become a 100% believer in this Chiefs team if we somehow get a win in San Diego. But God, that is going to be TOUGH.

CupidStunt
11-28-2010, 08:47 PM
This season is going to sting like a bitch.

Major turnaround, surpassing all expectations, yet losing the division by a game or even on tiebreakers. They're going to win 10 games and not make it for the 2nd time in 6 years.

KChiefs1
11-28-2010, 08:48 PM
So there's still a chance...

cdcox
11-28-2010, 08:50 PM
I'm hoping for a win in SD. It isn't reasonable, but I'm hoping.

KCrockaholic
11-28-2010, 08:52 PM
Fuck the Colts. And Fuck Peyton Manning. Stupid bitch can't do anything right.

Coogs
11-28-2010, 08:55 PM
I'm hoping for a win in SD. It isn't reasonable, but I'm hoping.

Even if we lose at San Diego, if we continue to play in the rest of the games the way we played the last two weeks, 11-5 is not out of the question. Broncos, Titans, Faiders at home, and Rams on the road.


One game at a time... could happen!

Pioli Zombie
11-28-2010, 08:57 PM
What happens if there is a Rapture and all the Dead In Christ are raised up with His bride, the church, before the San Diego game?

cdcox
11-28-2010, 08:59 PM
Even if we lose at San Diego, if we continue to play in the rest of the games the way we played the last two weeks, 11-5 is not out of the question. Broncos, Titans, Faiders at home, and Rams on the road.


One game at a time... could happen!

And if we get to 11-5 with a loss to SD, our odds of making the playoffs are only 76%. That's right we could sit home at 11-5.

Coogs
11-28-2010, 08:59 PM
What happens if there is a Rapture and all the Dead In Christ are raised up with His bride, the church, before the San Diego game?

Are you talking about what cdcox put in the OP, or are you referring to the Faiders beating the Chargers next week?

cdcox
11-28-2010, 09:01 PM
And if we get to 11-5 with a loss to SD, our odds of making the playoffs are only 76%. That's right we could sit home at 11-5.

Meanwhile 10-6 with a victory over SD clinches.

It's weird how much is riding on that game.

SNR
11-28-2010, 09:01 PM
And if we get to 11-5 with a loss to SD, our odds of making the playoffs are only 76%. That's right we could sit home at 11-5.And that's a generous percentage. The wildcard seems out of the question with the Jets/Patriots and Ravens/Steelers having a lead of one game on us.

I don't see the Chargers losing another game this season. And that blows.

KCrockaholic
11-28-2010, 09:03 PM
And if we get to 11-5 with a loss to SD, our odds of making the playoffs are only 76%. That's right we could sit home at 11-5.

Cassel's already been through that once before.

Coogs
11-28-2010, 09:04 PM
And if we get to 11-5 with a loss to SD, our odds of making the playoffs are only 76%. That's right we could sit home at 11-5.

I'd take my chances with that record. It would be hard to take if we don't make the playoffs with that record, but that would be one hell of a season none the less.

cdcox
11-28-2010, 09:05 PM
Cassel's already been through that once before.

I knew it!

It is cursed and must be killed with fire.

nstygma
11-28-2010, 09:05 PM
What happens if there is a Rapture and all the Dead In Christ are raised up with His bride, the church, before the San Diego game?San Diego still plays?

Coogs
11-28-2010, 09:05 PM
And that's a generous percentage. The wildcard seems out of the question with the Jets/Patriots and Ravens/Steelers having a lead of one game on us.

I don't see the Chargers losing another game this season. And that blows.

Jets and Ravens both have tough schedules down the stretch. :shrug:

One at a time... see what happens.

TRR
11-28-2010, 09:06 PM
KC isn't winning in SD. I just can't see it happening. Our best hope is that SD drops a game they shouldn't. The stars are aligning for SD beating up on an injured Colts team tonight.

SD is ike a mosquito....they just won't go away. Either way, SD isn't doing anything in the playoffs if they make it.
Posted via Mobile Device

DeezNutz
11-28-2010, 09:07 PM
The Chargers will lose another game this season; they're not going to run the table.

Coogs
11-28-2010, 09:09 PM
The Chargers will lose another game this season; they're not going to run the table.

Faiders next Sunday. Trap game between Colts and Chiefs. ;)

SNR
11-28-2010, 09:09 PM
Jets and Ravens both have tough schedules down the stretch. :shrug:

One at a time... see what happens.Maybe.

A Steeler loss to the Bills would have been really nice today :#

Coogs
11-28-2010, 09:18 PM
Maybe.

A Steeler loss to the Bills would have been really nice today :#

Week 13
Jets at Pats
Steelers at Ravens

Week 14
Miami at Jets
Ravens at Texans
Steelers at Bengals
Pats at Bears

Week 15
Jets at Steelers
Saints at Ravens
Packers at Pats

Week 16
Panthers at Steelers
Pats at Bills
Jets at Bears
Ravens at Browns

Week 17
Steelers at Browns
Bengals at Ravens
Dolphins at Pats
Bills at Jets

If we get to 11-5, it could be done.

Chiefs Pantalones
11-28-2010, 09:27 PM
Stop thinking wild card. The Chargers still have to beat US to win the division. We aren't letting that happen easliy.

Micjones
11-28-2010, 09:28 PM
The Chargers aren't going to run the table.
They could lose Sunday to Oakland.

DaneMcCloud
11-28-2010, 09:33 PM
The Chargers aren't going to run the table.
They could lose Sunday to Oakland.

They won't lose if Oakland plays like it did today.

There's a very good chance that the AFC West champion won't be crowned until after the Chiefs-Raiders game.

Coogs
11-28-2010, 09:35 PM
Stop thinking wild card. The Chargers still have to beat US to win the division. We aren't letting that happen easliy.

Oh, I am in on this one. I just also think it is possible for the West to put two in the playoffs. Something that was unthinkable not long ago.

Chiefshrink
11-28-2010, 09:51 PM
Oh, I am in on this one. I just also think it is possible for the West to put two in the playoffs. Something that was unthinkable no long ago.

Very true:thumb:

RINGLEADER
11-28-2010, 09:54 PM
And that's a generous percentage. The wildcard seems out of the question with the Jets/Patriots and Ravens/Steelers having a lead of one game on us.

I don't see the Chargers losing another game this season. And that blows.

I don't see them losing either.

Not to be the dark cloud in an otherwise silver lining but the single drop by Bowe at Oakland is likely to end up being the reason we don't win the West.

Frazod
11-28-2010, 09:55 PM
Well, no coasting now. We can't afford to slip up at all or we're fucked. The rest of their schedule is pussy central - we beat them or lose the division and end up praying for a wild card spot that probably won't materialize.

richpjr
11-28-2010, 10:12 PM
The one thing you can say is that either the Chargers or the Chiefs are going to have to earn it. San Diego is getting on a scary roll though, and has their next 3 games at home.

Nightfyre
11-28-2010, 10:14 PM
Ok, Quick AFC West Analysis: We have a slightly tougher road to haul than SD by strength of schedule and we have equal number of home games. The division probably does hinge on that game against SD.

AFCW
KC (7-4)
Den (3-8)
@SD (6-5)
@StL (5-6)
Ten (5-6)
Oak (5-6)
(24-31)


SD (6-5)
Oak (5-6)
KC (7-4)
SF (3-7)
@Cin (2-9)
@Den (3-8)
(20-34) Total

Remaining 6-5 or better AFC teams:
AFC South
Indy has to be the favorite with three home games to Jax's two and a slightly easier schedule by strength of schedule. Jax has three very tough away games there.

IND (6-5)
Dal (3-8)
@Ten (5-6)
Jax (6-5)
@Oak (5-6)
Ten (5-6)
(24-31)


JAX (6-5)
@Ten (5-6)
Oak (5-6)
@IND(6-5)
Was (5-6)
@Hou(5-6)
(26-29)

AFC North:
This division will likely swing on next weeks game. Both teams have three home games remaining and one other tough opponent besides each other.

BAL (8-3)
Pit (8-3)
@Hou (5-6)
NO (8-3)
@Cle (4-7)
Cin (2-9)
(27-28)

PIT (8-3)
@Bal (8-3)
Cin (2-9)
NYJ (9-2)
Car (1-10)
@Cle (4-7)
(24-31)

AFC East:
Miami would have to win out to have a shot, which would be tough since they play both NYJ and NE. This division race will likely be tight and both NE and NYJ have a brutal schedule to pull. However, NE does have three home games to NYJ's two.

NE (9-2)
NYJ (9-2)
@Chi (8-3)
GB (7-4)
@Buf (2-9)
Mia (6-5)
(32-23)

NYJ (9-2)
@NE (9-2)
Mia (6-5)
@Pit (8-3)
@Chi (8-3)
Buf (2-9)
(33-22)

MIA (6-5)
Cle (4-7)
@NYJ (9-2)
Buf (2-9)
Det (2-9)
@NE (9-2)
(26-29)

Wild Card Picture:
So the break down would be as follows:
AFCW: SD or KC
AFCS: IND or JAX
AFCN: BAL or PIT
AFCE: NE or NYJ

The worst NYJ could conceivably go is 10-6.
The worst NE could conceivably go is also 10-6.
However, one of these teams will at least go 11-5 as they play each other.

The worst PIT could conceivably go is 11-5.
The worst BAL could conceivably go is 10-6.
Again, these teams play one another.

That means that KC/SD loser must be at least 11-5/10-6 to be in the wildcard picture. KC has the worst Conference record of these teams. In order to compete for a wildcard spot, KC would have to win the remaining conference games and SD would likely be in the same boat.

If KC goes 11-5 with its only remaining loss to SD and SD wins out, I think you could see an 11-5 Chiefs team not make the playoffs.

Lets assume this eliminates MIA and JAX from the wildcard conversation.