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View Full Version : Chiefs Anyone have ESPN Insider? "Charles is MVP Worthy"


Dante84
12-20-2010, 01:43 PM
It's been a good 10 days for Jamaal Charles. On Dec. 11, Charles signed a five-year, $32.5 million contract extension with the Kansas City Chiefs that guarantees him $13 million. On Sunday, Charles busted off the longest run of the weekend, an 80-yard scamper that helped seal a crucial 27-13 victory over the St. Louis Rams.

And today, he's hit another milestone: According to DYAR, Charles is the best running back in football this season. While DVOA has suggested that he's been the best per-play back in the NFL for a fair amount of the season, his performance against the Rams pushed him ahead of Arian Foster as the overall leader in rushing DYAR.

He won't be getting any bonuses for finishing in that spot, but you don't need advanced metrics to realize what a great season he's having. Charles is now averaging 6.4 yards per carry, something that no other back has done with 200 or more carries in a season. Barry Sanders? Eric Dickerson? Adrian Peterson? Charles is doing more on a per-carry basis than any of them ever did. His 36.0 percent DVOA would also rank as the best performance by a back in a single season since 1993, the beginning of the DVOA Era.

To see why Jamaal Charles deserves MVP consideration, plus FBO's list of the best, worst and most surprising performances of Week 15, you must be an ESPN Insider.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/insider/news/story?id=5938768&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fnfl%2finsider%2fnews%2fstory%3fid%3d5938768

OnTheWarpath58
12-20-2010, 01:44 PM
.
It's been a good 10 days for Jamaal Charles. On Dec. 11, Charles signed a five-year, $32.5 million contract extension with the Kansas City Chiefs that guarantees him $13 million. On Sunday, Charles busted off the longest run of the weekend, an 80-yard scamper that helped seal a crucial 27-13 victory over the St. Louis Rams.

And today, he's hit another milestone: According to DYAR, Charles is the best running back in football this season. While DVOA has suggested that he's been the best per-play back in the NFL for a fair amount of the season, his performance against the Rams pushed him ahead of Arian Foster as the overall leader in rushing DYAR.

He won't be getting any bonuses for finishing in that spot, but you don't need advanced metrics to realize what a great season he's having. Charles is now averaging 6.4 yards per carry, something that no other back has done with 200 or more carries in a season. Barry Sanders? Eric Dickerson? Adrian Peterson? Charles is doing more on a per-carry basis than any of them ever did. His 36.0 percent DVOA would also rank as the best performance by a back in a single season since 1993, the beginning of the DVOA Era.

The only reason Charles doesn't get recognition as the league's best back, of course, is Todd Haley. Although Haley deserves credit for assisting in the turnaround of Kansas City football over the past year and a half, his refusal to unleash Charles upon the league is mind-boggling. A look at the numbers makes comparisons between him and teammate Thomas Jones laughable. It's very clear that the Chiefs need to stop fooling around and give Charles the bulk of the workload -- now.

Most of the reasons given for the near-equal split of the carries between Jones (212 rushing attempts) and Charles (203 attempts) are nebulous. Jones is a reliable veteran and he's great in the locker room, but that doesn't make him a superior option at running back. Besides, it's not like Charles doesn't have safe hands: Jones has one fumble on 202 touches this year, but Charles has just one more on 228 touches.

Consider their performances in similar situations: On first-and-10, Jones has 105 carries for 515 yards and 11 conversions for a first down or touchdown, an impressive average of 4.9 yards per carry. Charles' 89 first-down carries have produced 683 yards and 19 conversions for an average of nearly 7.7 yards per attempt. That's better than some teams' passing games.

Jones is regarded as an effective goal-line back because of his gaudy touchdown totals, but research in Football Outsiders Almanac 2010 revealed Jones to be a consistently mediocre goal-line back who had one of the worst performances in league history for the New York Jets in 2007. Despite that, the team continues to pound the ball with Jones inside the goal line without getting very much in return. On his 15 carries inside the opposition's 5-yard line this year, Jones has five touchdowns and a first down. Charles, meanwhile, has three touchdowns on four such carries. In "power" situations, carries on third or fourth down with 2 yards or fewer to go for a first down (or 2 yards to go for a touchdown on first or second down), Jones has converted on 8 of 16 attempts. Charles is 5-for-7.

In addition to being the more productive receiver, Charles is by far the more explosive back. He has nine carries of 20 yards or more, while Jones has just three. Unlike some boom-or-bust backs, though, consistency isn't an issue for Charles. Our success rate metric measures how effective players are at keeping the team "on schedule" toward a new set of downs and, by that measure, 59 percent of Charles' runs have been successful, the second-best rate in the league. Only Chris Ivory has been better. Jones is in 18th place among qualifying backs, at 48 percent.

The only thing that stands out as an obvious reason to keep Jones in the fold is durability. Jones has been a sturdy back throughout his entire career, while Charles really only spent half of last season as the primary back for his team. You can make the anecdotal case that Charles benefits from the frequent breathers he gets, but there's also the anecdotal stories about running backs "getting into a rhythm" with regular work. Either way, even if Charles lost 10 percent of his value with an increase in his workload, he would still be a far better option than Jones has been this season. Charles deserves the plaudits he's received for a great season, but Haley's decision to limit his workload is keeping Charles from being recognized as an MVP candidate.



Three Good Performances

1. Philip Rivers, QB, San Diego Chargers
Speaking of MVP candidates, Rivers deserves to stand right alongside Tom Brady, Michael Vick and Charles in the balloting. Unfortunately, the atrocities committed by San Diego's special teams and a decline in his passing attempts over the past few weeks have conspired to keep Rivers' chances down. He had a chance if he set the all-time passing record, but instead, he'll just have to settle for games like this. Repeatedly shredding the San Francisco 49ers apart with perfectly placed passes to Vincent Jackson, Rivers picked up a first down or a touchdown on 15 of his 25 attempts. He could have done even more, but the Chargers threw seven passes against 24 run plays after halftime.

2. Rashard Mendenhall, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers
Mendenhall faced the league's second-best run defense with an offensive line consisting mostly of clearance rack specials and somehow produced a wildly effective game. He had a 65 percent success rate against Gang Green, with nine of his 17 carries going for 5 yards or more.

3. Calvin Johnson, WR, Detroit Lions
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have lost several key parts on defense, including top cornerback Aqib Talib, but Johnson's numbers would be fantastic after translating them against any caliber of defense. He caught 10 of the 12 passes thrown to him, with nine of the receptions going for first downs. He was thrown four passes on third downs, and he caught each pass and picked up the yardage required. An even more impressive statistic: On passes that weren't thrown to Johnson, Drew Stanton was 13-of-25 for 100 yards with six first downs.

Three Bad Performances

1. Matt Hasselbeck, QB, Seattle Seahawks
The game turned on the sack and fumble Hasselbeck took in the end zone, resulting in a defensive touchdown for the Atlanta Falcons. After starting the game with six straight completions, Hasselbeck went 1-of-4 for 5 yards before the fateful sack. Afterward, he had two completions, two incompletions and two consecutive interceptions before being pulled for Charlie Whitehurst, perhaps permanently. Hasselbeck has looked effective at times this year, but he's had a propensity for awful runs of turnovers. Strength of schedule also masks some of the odorous performance, as he ranks behind players like Alex Smith and Stanton in DVOA.

2. Tim Hightower, RB, Arizona Cardinals
As soon as a Cardinals back takes the leading role, he promptly loses it with a terrible game or ill-timed fumble. Against the Panthers and their 27th-ranked run defense, Hightower's six carries produced 16 yards, with just one first down to show for his troubles. He was even worse as a receiver, with two meaningless dump-offs on third down and a fumble inside the 5-yard line. His only saving grace? Beanie Wells was the fourth-worst back of the week. Of course, think about what that says about Arizona's offensive line.

3. Reggie Wayne, WR, Indianapolis Colts
Wayne should have had a field day against the Jacksonville Jaguars, who allow opposing teams' top receivers an average of 88.5 yards per game. And Wayne is no average receiver. But Wayne's five catches produced just 34 yards. Two first downs in nine targets isn't the sort of day that should call for a trip to the Bounce House. It wasn't as if Wayne was getting thrown bombs, either; he had incompletions that traveled 0, 3 and 5 yards past the line of scrimmage. He also had just 9 yards after the catch.

Three Stunning Performances

1. Michael Vick, QB, Philadelphia Eagles
Vick's first half was one of his worst halves as a pro, even stretching back to his Falcons days. Facing the league's best pass defense, Vick dropped back 12 times and produced zero first downs. He was intercepted once, took two sacks, and while he picked up two first downs as a runner, gained 24 yards on four carries. Then the second half happened. Vick produced 158 passing DYAR on 26 plays, with three touchdown passes, five first downs and only one sack. He was far more impressive, though, as a runner. His 51.8 DYAR as a runner in the second half would be the fourth-highest total of any player over a whole game this week, and it came on just five carries. He picked up first downs on scrambles of 13, 22, 33 and 35 yards, and added a 4-yard touchdown run on his other carry. While the improvements in Vick's accuracy as a passer have been remarkable and well-documented, it's amazing that Vick has retained so much of his natural speed as a runner. Taking what essentially amounts to three years off from full-time work undoubtedly helps, but Vick is 30 and he still makes other guys on the field look like they're in slow motion.

2. Matt Flynn, QB, Green Bay Packers
Flynn's performance was unexpected by most, but it wasn't all that surprising, considering the context of his games over the past two weeks. Although he wasn't able to score points last week against the Lions, he finished a respectable 19th in DYAR without any practice snaps. Given those reps this week, history would dictate his play to improve by about 10 percent. And while the New England Patriots had been tagged as an improving defense because of their play in blowouts over the past three weeks, they still ranked 25th against the pass and had top cornerback Kyle Arrington playing at less than 100 percent. Mike McCarthy simplified his offense for Flynn by giving him simple reads and asking him to make high-percentage throws, especially on third down. In those situations he was 10-of-14 for 145 yards with two touchdowns, six first downs and a pick-six. Weird down split: After picking up a first down on his first second down of the game, he didn't pick up another one on his subsequent 13 second-down attempts.

3. Cedric Benson, RB, Cincinnati Bengals
One of the few people not thrown under the bus by Terrell Owens this past week, Benson was consistently effective against an average Cleveland Browns run defense. Twenty-one of his 31 carries went for 4 yards or more, and he finished the day with a 52 percent success rate. He also picked up both of his third-down attempts.

Bill Barnwell is a writer for Football Outsiders.

Dante84
12-20-2010, 01:45 PM
REP.

Nevermind, I like it like this :D

OnTheWarpath58
12-20-2010, 01:46 PM
Needs.

More.

Carries.

Count Zarth
12-20-2010, 01:50 PM
Charles is now averaging 6.4 yards per carry, something that no other back has done with 200 or more carries in a season.

ESPN blows it again.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/B/BrowJi00/gamelog/1963/

Zeke
12-20-2010, 01:52 PM
Needs.

More.

Carries.

I still think the entire thinking behind this is that Pioli\Haley are trying to win championships. They know they aren't even close to being there yet, and don't want to burn his legs before the rest of the team gets there. The $32 mil contract would agree.

Count Zarth
12-20-2010, 01:54 PM
Wow, there is no way that garbage was worth a sub. All that guy did was regurgitate some splits anyone can read on Charles/Jones ESPN stats page.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/splits?playerId=11307

http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/players/splits?playerId=2138

kysirsoze
12-20-2010, 01:55 PM
I think you lose more than 10% of your effectiveness if you go down with injury. That's the argument to keep feeding Jones. You might not agree that Charles is that likely to be injured, but that's the thinking here.

Mile High Mania
12-20-2010, 01:57 PM
Overall, he has a few hundred more yards and many fewer TDs than Hillis does this year... Charles has been ok. MJD and Turner > Charles in the MVP race...



http://t1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRL5kH2wbpwgqoqmF8XekjOVgJk4Jc7qliUdmwzyJY5XexPN_3otQ http://t0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQdWR--JaJTPxXX6SBpW9IDjj7-UEI6U8kRQYsXJeCg6iEqKG6F2Q http://t1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQFfoPauhghpFStdEbyQGavgcPpw9wYhHm08zUQRKRDRpZrQdw3Lw

kysirsoze
12-20-2010, 01:59 PM
Overall, he has a few hundred more yards and many fewer TDs than Hillis does this year... Charles has been ok. MJD and Turner > Charles in the MVP race...

Unbelievable.

Dante84
12-20-2010, 02:00 PM
Overall, he has a few hundred more yards and many fewer TDs than Hillis does this year... Charles has been ok. MJD and Turner > Charles in the MVP race...

On how many attempts?

Hoover
12-20-2010, 02:00 PM
If its not broke don't fix it.

I think splitting time between Jones and Charles is wise, especially if we go to an 18 game season. Would it be cool to see what JC's stats would be if he had 100 more carries? Sure, but is it worth giving one back that big of a load after we have all seen what happened to backs like Eddie George and LJ? We just signed JC to a long term deal, its in our best interest to make sure he can play out that contract.

That said, come playoff time, JC needs to get some more carries IMO, but I'm not upset with how he has been handled this season.

Mile High Mania
12-20-2010, 02:01 PM
Unbelievable.

Was hoping to get that edit with the pics in before the first reply... :doh!:

Ah well. :p

kysirsoze
12-20-2010, 02:01 PM
If its not broke don't fix it.

I think splitting time between Jones and Charles is wise, especially if we go to an 18 game season. Would it be cool to see what JC's stats would be if he had 100 more carries? Sure, but is it worth giving one back that big of a load after we have all seen what happened to backs like Eddie George and LJ? We just signed JC to a long term deal, its in our best interest to make sure he can play out that contract.

That said, come playoff time, JC needs to get some more carries IMO, but I'm not upset with how he has been handled this season.

Hell look what Chris Johnson's up to this year. Not quite the 2500 he called before the season, huh?

Mile High Mania
12-20-2010, 02:03 PM
On how many attempts?

Good point... guys splitting time shouldn't be in the MVP conversation.

Hoover
12-20-2010, 02:03 PM
Hillis is a nice back, but his numbers are not mind-blowing

Zeke
12-20-2010, 02:03 PM
Was hoping to get that edit with the pics in before the first reply... :doh!:

Ah well. :p

It would suck if Hillis was in our division.

Mi_chief_fan
12-20-2010, 02:06 PM
Good point... guys splitting time shouldn't be in the MVP conversation.

:shake:

Used to respect your POV, but you've officialy become Taco John.

Mile High Mania
12-20-2010, 02:06 PM
It would suck if Hillis was in our division.

Excellent point ... :deevee:, every time I ... :crybaby: (clears throat) I hate that:loser: coach that traded him.

Mile High Mania
12-20-2010, 02:07 PM
:shake:

Used to respect your POV, but you've officialy become Taco John.

C'mon - just having fun with the dude.

Rain Man
12-20-2010, 02:20 PM
Let's hope that the MVP voters are ESPN Insiders.

alpha_omega
12-20-2010, 02:21 PM
Ha ha...that article suggest that Charles needs more carries. Wonder where i've heard that before.

Garcia Bronco
12-20-2010, 02:23 PM
If I am giving it out today...M Vick, Virginia Tech Hokie, is the clear and undisputed winner.

Short Leash Hootie
12-20-2010, 02:27 PM
the lack of TD's for Charles has been kind of flukey this year...

he has 5 I believe (4 rushing, 1 receiving)...

he has been tackled on the 1 yard line about 8 times...

beer bacon
12-20-2010, 02:29 PM
If the Chiefs had Hillis and Charles we would actually have thunder and lightning.

OnTheWarpath58
12-20-2010, 02:30 PM
the lack of TD's for Charles has been kind of flukey this year...

he has 5 I believe (4 rushing, 1 receiving)...

he has been tackled on the 1 yard line about 8 times...

And to use a fantasy term, he's been vultured quite a bit this year - not so much from TJ, but we have a shit-ton of passing TD's from a yard or two out.

He's just not getting the chances.

Dante84
12-20-2010, 02:32 PM
C'mon - just having fun with the dude.

tee hee

Garcia Bronco
12-20-2010, 02:33 PM
the lack of TD's for Charles has been kind of flukey this year...

he has 5 I believe (4 rushing, 1 receiving)...

he has been tackled on the 1 yard line about 8 times...

Sounds like he lost his burst.

Mi_chief_fan
12-20-2010, 02:34 PM
C'mon - just having fun with the dude.

OK..........my sarcasm meter's a bit off, sorry.

Short Leash Hootie
12-20-2010, 02:38 PM
And to use a fantasy term, he's been vultured quite a bit this year - not so much from TJ, but we have a shit-ton of passing TD's from a yard or two out.

He's just not getting the chances.

yeah we really took that from the Patriots ROFL

they always pass on 1st and goal from the 1

and it's effective

it's always open

OnTheWarpath58
12-20-2010, 02:47 PM
yeah we really took that from the Patriots ROFL

they always pass on 1st and goal from the 1

and it's effective

it's always open

Just did the math.

6 passing TD's this year from 1 or 2 yards out.

11 passing TD's from inside the 10 yard line.

Charles only has NINE attempts inside the 10 yard line.

Dude is pretty much forced to score from distance. Not his fault the TD numbers are low.

SNR
12-20-2010, 04:00 PM
Overall, he has a few hundred more yards and many fewer TDs than Hillis does this year... Charles has been ok. MJD and Turner > Charles in the MVP race...



http://t1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRL5kH2wbpwgqoqmF8XekjOVgJk4Jc7qliUdmwzyJY5XexPN_3otQ http://t0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQdWR--JaJTPxXX6SBpW9IDjj7-UEI6U8kRQYsXJeCg6iEqKG6F2Q http://t1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQFfoPauhghpFStdEbyQGavgcPpw9wYhHm08zUQRKRDRpZrQdw3LwYou gotta be trolling.

Just because McDaniels traded him away for peanuts and he's better than all the RBs on your roster doesn't mean you gotta play hater.

Also, I'm laughing my ass off right now that a RB with the power, smoothness, vision, and SPEED (Jamaal Charles) isn't as good as a fat white "motor-churnin'" talentless piece of shit like Hillis. He's nothing more than Mike Alstott with an ability to make a slow-ass cutback.

EDIT: Okay, you are just joking. Nevermind then. Move along, nothing to see here.

EDIT #2: But I still think Peyton Hillis is garbage

Huffman83
12-20-2010, 04:12 PM
Overall, he has a few hundred more yards and many fewer TDs than Hillis does this year... Charles has been ok. MJD and Turner > Charles in the MVP race...



http://t1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRL5kH2wbpwgqoqmF8XekjOVgJk4Jc7qliUdmwzyJY5XexPN_3otQ http://t0.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQdWR--JaJTPxXX6SBpW9IDjj7-UEI6U8kRQYsXJeCg6iEqKG6F2Q http://t1.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcQFfoPauhghpFStdEbyQGavgcPpw9wYhHm08zUQRKRDRpZrQdw3Lw

And that has to chap your ass doesn't it?

Pasta Giant Meatball
12-20-2010, 04:25 PM
If I am giving it out today...M Vick, Virginia Tech Hokie, is the clear and undisputed winner.

Tom Brady runs his fingers through his glorious locks and giggles.

Bwana
12-20-2010, 04:28 PM
C'mon - just having fun with the dude.

That good to hear dude. I seriously thought you had turned into to knowmo 2.0 after reading that.

threebag02
12-20-2010, 04:41 PM
Needs.

More.

Carries.

Needs
More
Cut
and
Fucking
Paste

Rain Man
12-20-2010, 04:49 PM
If I am giving it out today...M Vick, Virginia Tech Hokie, is the clear and undisputed winner.


He's certainly in the discussion, but I suspect that NFL public relations folks are placing calls to the voters right now about that.

Mile High Mania
12-20-2010, 04:54 PM
That good to hear dude. I seriously thought you had turned into to knowmo 2.0 after reading that.

ROFL There's no chance... I at least watch the entire game.