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View Full Version : Chiefs Jamaal Charles for President (Very Awesome)


Shogun
12-22-2010, 08:24 PM
http://uponfurtherreview.kansascity.com/?q=node/2777

Iíve certainly written about Charles within the broader Chiefs posts I have done, but I decided it was more than time to devote an entire post to him. Charles may not only be the best runner in the NFL, he may be the best runner in Kansas City history and he may even be the best runner in NFL history. At least by one measureÖ he is.

I brought up this fact in the St. Louis post-game article, but it bears repeating Ė especially since it is the single most impressive statistic any Chief has had in years Ė if not ever.

When Charles scampered for 80 yards in his last rushing play of the game versus the Rams, he more than secured the game for Kansas City, he moved into first place all time for running backs in modern NFL history based upon yards per carry.

Iím going to display that table again, but Iím going to show three rows with Charles name. One of them was his YPC before the game, one before the 80 yard run and one after it (end of game).

The table has three assumptions: 1) Since 1934, 2) Minimum 1,000 yards of rushing, 3) Running backs only (Michael Vick had higher YPC in 2006 as a QB).

http://i52.tinypic.com/jsm6c5.jpg

The big question as far as Iím concerned is whether Charles can maintain the 6.42 rate. If he does, he will move into rarified air Ė that being a higher YPC than the great Jim Brown. And, even if he doesnít, as long as he stays above 6.128 (Barry Sanders, 1997), he will have the highest YPC of any running back since the NFL merged with the AFL 40 years ago.

Here is a list of the 20 running backs with the most yardage since 1969 (OJ Simpsonís first year) and their best season with respect to yards per carry. Jim Brown was 27 when he rushed for 6.40 ypc in 1963. Charles is 24. His birthday is December 27. Sorted by YPC

http://i54.tinypic.com/w15zqe.jpg

The interesting item to note here are the ages for each player when they had their best rushing season (based upon ypc). The majority of them (12) were 25 or younger. The remaining ages are 26 (3), 27 (0), 28 (0), 29 (2), 30 (1), 31 (2). Itís not unreasonable to say this is likely as good as it gets for Charles and, on a per-carry basis, itís all downhill from here.

That, of course, brings up an obvious question. If a running back such as Charles is in his primest of primes at the age of 24.986, why isnít Todd Haley running him more often? Iím pretty content with Jones carrying a good chunk of the load, but one of the great statistical oddities of all time is this factÖ

ÖJones has 212 rushing attempts, Charles 203.

Jones is averaging 3.91 ypc compared to Charlesí 6.42. Obviously (I think), Haley doesnít want to wear down Charles. I can appreciate that, but I donít know what evidence there is to suggest that would happen. On the other hand, itís absolutely true that Charles (IMO) would not average 6.42 ypc if he had 300 rushes instead of 200. There is just no way. The defenses would be more focused on him.

But, just for hypothetical purposes, letís suppose Charles had rushed 300 times and Jones the remaining 115. And, letís say the averages remained the same. Instead of the two combining for 2,131, they would have combined for 2,317. Thatís an additional 186 yards over 14 games. The difference is 13 more rushing yards per game. Is that an issue?

IMO, probably not. Itís doubtful that 13 yards is going to win or lose any games. Itís probably more true that it wouldnít end up being 13 yards anyway Ė more like 10 or less. So, because of that and being a proud statistical nerd, I would rather see Charles break Brownís record than worry about 10 yards per game Ė especially when Haley probably knows what heís doing and (historically) Charles is more prone to fumble than Jones.

At his present rate, Charles will end up with 1,489 yards. That would rank #81 in NFL history and #5 as a ChiefÖ but it would still be #1 in NFL history on a per-carry basis.

Here are the top rushers (1,200+) by season by all Chiefs running backs.

http://i52.tinypic.com/2ezqwrl.jpg

Clearly on a per carry basis, Charles is in a different league than any previous KC running back. Whether he could maintain it if he had to carry the rock more often is unknown.

COOL FACTOID: Over his last 18 games (perhaps equivalent to a future NFL season), Charles has 1,961 yards on 297 carries for a 6.60 YPC. There has never been a stretch comparable to that in NFL history based upon rushing efficiency.

Charles is third in total yards this season in the NFL - only a few yards behind. Here are the top five

http://i51.tinypic.com/25g6qo6.jpg

Itís hard to see how anyone can look at this list and not recognize Charles as overwhelmingly superior to any of the others. I donít think he is getting the respect he deserves, although word is getting out.

A reader sent me a link to an ESPN Insider story about Charles from a couple days ago. The title is Charles is MVP-worthy.

Count Zarth
12-22-2010, 08:31 PM
The scary thing is his average could go up.

He's got another long run in him before the season's over.

Wallcrawler
12-22-2010, 09:16 PM
YPC is nice, but it takes more than yardage to be considered the best at your position.

Like comparing him to Priest Holmes as a KC runningback. Yeah, Jamal has a higher YPC, but he doesnt hold a candle to Priest in scoring touchdowns. Priest was an offensive juggernaut. Sure, a couple yards less per touch, but Ill take record setting totals of touchdowns over a higher YPC any day.


It takes touchdowns to win games, not 20 yard gainers that dont score and your offense cant sustain the rest of the drive for the td. I remember getting into a huge debate with some scumbag Raider fan when the Faders and Chiefs both had explosive offenses about which team had the better offense.

The Raiders led the league in Yards Per Game, and the Chiefs led the league in Scoring offense.

Which would you rather have, more yards, or more points?

Points has to win every time. If you go 98 yards on a drive from the 1 yard line every drive and get stuffed before you get that last yard, all those yards dont mean jack.


So in my (most likely unpopular) opinion, this year Arian Foster is still the league's best back. He not only has the most yardage (even if it is by just a little bit), but he also has like 13 or 14 touchdowns. Even if you took TJ's five TDs and added it to Jamal's stats, thats still half of Foster's total this year.

I think its cool that he's producing and Im really stoked that hes signed with us long term, but I dont know about this best back in the world stuff just yet.

Count Zarth
12-22-2010, 09:20 PM
It takes touchdowns to win games, not 20 yard gainers that dont score and your offense cant sustain the rest of the drive for the td.

If Charles played with Green, Gonzo, Roaf, Shields and the rest of that offense he would shatter records left and right.

Wallcrawler
12-22-2010, 09:23 PM
If Charles played with Green, Gonzo, Roaf, Shields and the rest of that offense he would shatter records left and right.

Dude, I need a new keyboard and monitor....

and some wetwipes.

tk13
12-22-2010, 09:27 PM
This is one of those things... I think LJ could've averaged around 6 ypc if we'd done the same thing with him and Priest. There comes a point of diminishing returns. I don't think Charles would be anywhere near these numbers if he averaged 25 carries a game. I think it's an interesting argument to whether 15-20 touches of Charles as a change up home run threat would be more efficient than pounding it with him 25-30 times a game over the course of a season.

milkman
12-22-2010, 09:28 PM
YPC is nice, but it takes more than yardage to be considered the best at your position.

Like comparing him to Priest Holmes as a KC runningback. Yeah, Jamal has a higher YPC, but he doesnt hold a candle to Priest in scoring touchdowns. Priest was an offensive juggernaut. Sure, a couple yards less per touch, but Ill take record setting totals of touchdowns over a higher YPC any day.


It takes touchdowns to win games, not 20 yard gainers that dont score and your offense cant sustain the rest of the drive for the td. I remember getting into a huge debate with some scumbag Raider fan when the Faders and Chiefs both had explosive offenses about which team had the better offense.

The Raiders led the league in Yards Per Game, and the Chiefs led the league in Scoring offense.

Which would you rather have, more yards, or more points?

Points has to win every time. If you go 98 yards on a drive from the 1 yard line every drive and get stuffed before you get that last yard, all those yards dont mean jack.


So in my (most likely unpopular) opinion, this year Arian Foster is still the league's best back. He not only has the most yardage (even if it is by just a little bit), but he also has like 13 or 14 touchdowns. Even if you took TJ's five TDs and added it to Jamal's stats, thats still half of Foster's total this year.

I think its cool that he's producing and Im really stoked that hes signed with us long term, but I dont know about this best back in the world stuff just yet.

The question is, would those rushing TD numbers be the same if Charles got the carries inside the 5 that Jones is getting?

Somewhere around here it's been broken down and my memory is hazy, but it was something like double the opportunities for Jones, but Charles was far more efficient.

Charles has better vision and patience than Jones, and he runs with more power than we give him credit for, as well.

Brianfo
12-22-2010, 09:33 PM
This is one of those things... I think LJ could've averaged around 6 ypc if we'd done the same thing with him and Priest. There comes a point of diminishing returns. I don't think Charles would be anywhere near these numbers if he averaged 25 carries a game. I think it's an interesting argument to whether 15-20 touches of Charles as a change up home run threat would be more efficient than pounding it with him 25-30 times a game over the course of a season.

This. The change of pace is working. As much as we bitched about it earlier in the year, and we all know who the home run back is, the old ball coach knows what he's doing.

DBOSHO
12-22-2010, 10:46 PM
Im so glad we re-signed him. There are so many likeable players on the chiefs and he might be my favorite.

WebGem
12-22-2010, 10:51 PM
He's got another long run in him before the season's over.

Another? I say he's got at least 3 more!

Zaiko
12-23-2010, 12:58 AM
I applaud your research and such, but I think we already knew his YPC was insanely high by now...

HotRoute
12-23-2010, 01:43 AM
So Jamaal Charles is good??

Ralphy Boy
12-23-2010, 02:13 AM
This weeks game is huge. Going up against CJ, I'm guessing JC will want to shine and given what he has done this season so far, I'm guessing Weis & Haley will give him the opportunity, what with his birthday being the next day and all.

KurtCobain
12-23-2010, 02:20 AM
Charles is doing great, I'm so proud of the little guy. Hopefully McCluster will follow suit in the next two years and be every bit as productive and explosive as JAMAAAL.

And then McCluster will need more carries, like Charles does now.

Chaserman
12-23-2010, 02:46 AM
It seems to me that all of Jamaal's key stats being debated in this post come as a direct result of his position within the organization (and his abilities too, don't get me wrong). Using a Running Back team instead of one primary back allows us to keep defenses on their toes, forcing them to constantly switch back and forth between the hard hitting, balls-to-the-wall, between the tackles style of running Thomas Jones brings to the field each down, or the sly, slip through the cracks, surprise gain that Charles pulls out of nowhere. Thus, he manages to make several explosive gains in the relatively few carries he takes. This allows for that high YPC and low touchdown yield.

Because of the rarity of the Running Back situation in Kansas City, you really cannot use that data to suggest that Jamaal Charles is or isn't the best RB in the NFL, history of the franchise, or history of the NFL itself. Remember, Johnson managed fantastic gains when he would take third down runs for Priest too. What I think we can agree on is that Charles is one of the best Running Backs in the league, at what he does. Given the situation held for him in the organization, it seems like he does a pretty darn good job of getting the job done.

Sweet Daddy Hate
12-23-2010, 04:47 AM
He's no Mo' Kessel, but I like him anyway.

ChiefsNow
12-23-2010, 05:05 AM
YPC is nice, but it takes more than yardage to be considered the best at your position.

Like comparing him to Priest Holmes as a KC runningback. Yeah, Jamal has a higher YPC, but he doesnt hold a candle to Priest in scoring touchdowns. Priest was an offensive juggernaut. Sure, a couple yards less per touch, but Ill take record setting totals of touchdowns over a higher YPC any day.


It takes touchdowns to win games, not 20 yard gainers that dont score and your offense cant sustain the rest of the drive for the td. I remember getting into a huge debate with some scumbag Raider fan when the Faders and Chiefs both had explosive offenses about which team had the better offense.

The Raiders led the league in Yards Per Game, and the Chiefs led the league in Scoring offense.

Which would you rather have, more yards, or more points?

Points has to win every time. If you go 98 yards on a drive from the 1 yard line every drive and get stuffed before you get that last yard, all those yards dont mean jack.


So in my (most likely unpopular) opinion, this year Arian Foster is still the league's best back. He not only has the most yardage (even if it is by just a little bit), but he also has like 13 or 14 touchdowns. Even if you took TJ's five TDs and added it to Jamal's stats, thats still half of Foster's total this year.

I think its cool that he's producing and Im really stoked that hes signed with us long term, but I dont know about this best back in the world stuff just yet.

The thing about that is, Charles gets the yards, then they give it to Jones to punch it in.

beach tribe
12-23-2010, 05:58 AM
If Charles played with Green, Gonzo, Roaf, Shields and the rest of that offense he would shatter records left and right.

OMG. I LOVE Priest, but If JC played behind Roaf & Co., and was used the way Priest was, He'd score 35 TDS, and rush for 2300 yards.

jjjayb
12-23-2010, 06:07 AM
This is one of those things... I think LJ could've averaged around 6 ypc if we'd done the same thing with him and Priest. There comes a point of diminishing returns. I don't think Charles would be anywhere near these numbers if he averaged 25 carries a game. I think it's an interesting argument to whether 15-20 touches of Charles as a change up home run threat would be more efficient than pounding it with him 25-30 times a game over the course of a season.

Just go look at the games where he had 25 carries and see what his totals where.

jjjayb
12-23-2010, 06:08 AM
It seems to me that all of Jamaal's key stats being debated in this post come as a direct result of his position within the organization (and his abilities too, don't get me wrong). Using a Running Back team instead of one primary back allows us to keep defenses on their toes, forcing them to constantly switch back and forth between the hard hitting, balls-to-the-wall, between the tackles style of running Thomas Jones brings to the field each down, or the sly, slip through the cracks, surprise gain that Charles pulls out of nowhere. Thus, he manages to make several explosive gains in the relatively few carries he takes. This allows for that high YPC and low touchdown yield.



Then how do you explain what he did last year at the primary back?

beach tribe
12-23-2010, 06:14 AM
Just go look at the games where he had 25 carries and see what his totals where.

That can change over the course of a season.

rockymtnchief
12-23-2010, 06:41 AM
Charles has better vision and patience than Jones, and he runs with more power than we give him credit for, as well.

I agree.

It looks more and more like someones been showing him how to take on a tackle and bust through it. The number of arm tackles has dropped since last year and the first few weeks of this year.

tmax63
12-23-2010, 08:21 AM
All season I have liked how Weiss has mixed it up between the backs. JC can do an excellent job between the tackles, but IMHO, backs in the NFL only have a limited number of times that they get "blowed up" before they're done. Yards in the middle have a much higher chance of causing a back to be "blowed up" because of the traffic and the inability to move and avoid/lessen big hits. I think this year they've found/lucked into the right mix to get the most out of JC without getting him killed or broken down.