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View Full Version : Chiefs AccuScore: Chiefs take big step; 49ers alive


Bill Lundberg
12-23-2010, 10:01 AM
http://sports.yahoo.com/nfl/news?slug=ys-accuscoreplayoffodds122110

AccuScore uses past performance statistics to describe how players perform under different environmental, matchup, and game-situation conditions. Using projected starting lineups AccuScore simulates each game of the season one play at a time. By repeating the simulation 10,000 to 20,000 times per game AccuScore calculates the precise probability teams have of winning each game, winning their division, and making the playoffs. Here is the AccuScore.com analysis of the 2010 NFL season after Week 15. Visit AccuScore.com for weekly updates to the season forecast and all game forecasts.


AFC

The Chiefs got quarterback Matt Cassel(notes) back and got a dominating rushing performance this past week to put them in great position to take the AFC West title. The Chargers are heavy favorites in both of their remaining games and have over a 55 percent chance of closing with two wins, but they arenít in the driverís seat for the playoffs. With the Ravens and Jets both winning, the chances of an AFC West team getting a wild-card spot is unlikely. San Diego and Oakland both won on Sunday, but their playoff chances still dropped considerably because of the Chiefsí win.

The Jetsí win in Pittsburgh was huge. With a likely first-round matchup against the inexperienced Chiefs, the Jets are probably better off in the No. 6 spot than the Ravens at No. 5. Baltimore will likely have to go to Indianapolis. The Steelers may have lost to the Jets, but they locked up a playoff spot and are still likely to win the AFC North by having a better division record than the Ravens.

The Colts regained control over the AFC South and are the 63.6 percent favorite to win the division. The Jaguars saw their chances drop over 20 percentage points by losing in Indianapolis. There is only a 35 percent chance that the Jags win out, and even if they do they cannot pass the Colts who have the tiebreaker.

WEEK 15 REVIEW PLAYOFF % CHANCE
TEAM WK 15 WK 16 % DIFF WIN DIV
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 54.4% 89.7% 35.3% 86.3%
NEW YORK JETS 75.3% 96.3% 20.9% 1.6%
INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 44.2% 63.6% 19.3% 63.6%
BALTIMORE RAVENS 97.3% 98.8% 1.5% 30.2%
TENNESSEE TITANS 0.4% 1.1% 0.8% 1.1%
PITTSBURGH STEELERS 99.8% 100.0% 0.2% 69.8%
BUFFALO BILLS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
CINCINNATI BENGALS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
CLEVELAND BROWNS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DENVER BRONCOS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 98.4%
HOUSTON TEXANS 0.3% 0.0% -0.3% 0.0%
OAKLAND RAIDERS 8.7% 2.0% -6.7% 2.0%
MIAMI DOLPHINS 9.2% 0.0% -9.2% 0.0%
JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 58.6% 36.8% -21.8% 35.3%
SAN DIEGO CHARGERS 51.8% 11.8% -40.0% 11.8%
NFC

The Bears hammered the Vikings to win the NFC North, and the Packers saw their playoff chances plummet as a result. If Aaron Rodgers(notes) is healthy the Packers are a 58 percent favorite to beat the Giants in Week 16, so they still have a chance if they can beat Chicago in Week 17. The Saints and Giants may have both lost in Week 15, but they are still clear-cut favorites for the wild-card spots.

The three-team race for the NFC West is still alive. Amazingly, the 49ers have a 28 percent chance to win out and take the division. The Rams are actually winning less than 50 percent of Weeks 16 and 17 simulations, but they are still ultimately winning the division 43 percent of the time, which is more than the 49ers and Seahawks.

WEEK 15 REVIEW PLAYOFF % CHANCE
TEAM WK 15 WK 16 % DIFF WIN DIV
CHICAGO BEARS 61.7% 100.0% 38.3% 100.0%
PHILADELPHIA EAGLES 87.2% 99.9% 12.7% 99.2%
NEW YORK GIANTS 67.4% 79.4% 12.0% 0.8%
SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS 16.2% 28.1% 11.9% 28.1%
NEW ORLEANS SAINTS 93.1% 97.4% 4.2% 7.9%
ATLANTA FALCONS 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 92.1%
CAROLINA PANTHERS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DALLAS COWBOYS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
DETROIT LIONS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
MINNESOTA VIKINGS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
WASHINGTON REDSKINS 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
ARIZONA CARDINALS 0.2% 0.0% -0.2% 0.0%
ST. LOUIS RAMS 47.2% 42.8% -4.4% 42.8%
SEATTLE SEAHAWKS 36.4% 29.1% -7.4% 29.1%
GREEN BAY PACKERS 53.7% 22.2% -31.6% 0.0%
TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS 36.9% 1.1% -35.8% 0.0%

Los Pollos Hermanos
12-23-2010, 10:06 AM
That article might as well be written in Spanish.

notorious
12-23-2010, 10:18 AM
I must be and idiot, I don't understand why there are 4 percentage numbers for each team.


:facepalm: Nevermind



I have a 100% chance of being and idiot.

WebGem
12-23-2010, 10:18 AM
This is what the table is.

http://img574.imageshack.us/img574/3633/11933274.jpg

notorious
12-23-2010, 10:21 AM
It is criminal that St Louis still has a 42% chance with a record of 6-8. JFC

JTagg7754
12-23-2010, 10:22 AM
It'll be a bittersweet victory in a couple weeks b/c I fucking hate the Chargers so damn much and beating you guys will probably put them in the playoffs :(

Hog Farmer
12-23-2010, 10:22 AM
Bottom line is we have to win this Sunday and again next Sunday. Period!

WebGem
12-23-2010, 10:23 AM
The Chiefs do not have an 86% chance to win their division, lol. That's absolutely retarded, it's not even close to that high.

JTagg7754
12-23-2010, 10:23 AM
It is criminal that St Louis still has a 42% chance with a record of 6-8. JFC

Even worse that SF is still very much alive w/ a 5-9 record.

Rams Fan
12-23-2010, 10:24 AM
Even worse that SF is still very much alive w/ a 5-9 record.

Yep. But it will be 0% when the Rams beat the 49ers this week.

DaFace
12-23-2010, 10:24 AM
The Chiefs do not have an 86% chance to win their division, lol. That's absolutely retarded, it's not even close to that high.

Yeah, that's incredibly optimistic. I'd say 60%.

WebGem
12-23-2010, 10:26 AM
Yeah, that's incredibly optimistic. I'd say 60%.

They're not being optimistic, they aren't Chiefs fans. It's probably that they're factoring in the Chargers road record and the fact they have 2 road games left, and vice versa with the Chiefs.

Cave Johnson
12-23-2010, 10:26 AM
The Chiefs do not have an 86% chance to win their division, lol. That's absolutely retarded, it's not even close to that high.

Per simulating the next two weeks, that's absolutely the case. We should win out and, if we don't, it's because we let a lesser team play spoiler.

WebGem
12-23-2010, 10:28 AM
Per simulating the next two weeks, that's absolutely the case. We should win out and, if we don't, it's because we let a lesser team play spoiler.

I'm terribly sorry, but if you think we have anywhere near an 86% chance of finishing 2-0, you are completely wrong. I'd say we have at best a 70% chance of winning both games (.7 * .7 = .49 meaning 49% chance we win both) and that's being optimistic. Then there's the chance the Chargers lose a game, which isn't all that high, but it's possible. Trust me, we do not have an 86% chance of winning the division.

notorious
12-23-2010, 10:29 AM
A lot can happen.


The probable scenario is that San Diego and the Chiefs each drop a game the next two weeks.

JTagg7754
12-23-2010, 10:31 AM
Yep. But it will be 0% when the Rams beat the 49ers this week.

And they should since Troy's whack ass is back in at QB. I need turnover after turnover after turnover and sack after sack after sack and a defensive TD and a ST TD from you guys this weekend. Want to make sure that happens for me? I'm in the finals in my big money league and this guy, while at 9-6 his team is stacked. I'm nervous and I'm 13-2 haha.

Anyway, Rams D/ST needs to help me out. I also got the Eagles going against a Webb ran Minni offense so I'm good there.

WebGem
12-23-2010, 10:31 AM
A lot can happen.


The probable scenario is that San Diego and the Chiefs each drop a game the next two weeks.

I'd say it's about 50/50 we lose 1 game, and I'd say there's about a 35-40% chance SD loses one. So chances are we'll win the division. I'll take that. If we get by Tennessee those percentages go up very high. Hell, hopefully Cinci does the job too so it's officially 100%.

Rams Fan
12-23-2010, 10:32 AM
And they should since Troy's whack ass is back in at QB. I need turnover after turnover after turnover and sack after sack after sack and a defensive TD and a ST TD from you guys this weekend. Want to make sure that happens for me? I'm in the finals in my big money league and this guy, while at 9-6 his team is stacked. I'm nervous and I'm 13-2 haha.

Anyway, Rams D/ST needs to help me out. I also got the Eagles going against a Webb ran Minni offense so I'm good there.

We'll get 2 out of the 3 things you listed. If the Rams lose in Seattle in Week 17, I'm going to be pissed.

Rausch
12-23-2010, 10:33 AM
Yep. But it will be 0% when the Rams beat the 49ers this week.

And they will.

They bounce back well for a rebuilding team.

Honestly, all football fans in MO should be sporting a big rubbery one based on huge turnarounds in such a short period of time...

WebGem
12-23-2010, 10:33 AM
We'll get 2 out of the 3 things you listed. If the Rams lose in Seattle in Week 17, I'm going to be pissed.

Well the Chiefs are the only thing in the NFL that matters, and they won in Seattle by 18 and in STL by only 14. So you guys are 4 points better. But they're at home too, so give them 3 points. 28-27 Rams.

notorious
12-23-2010, 10:33 AM
I'd say it's about 50/50 we lose 1 game, and I'd say there's about a 35-40% chance SD loses one. So chances are we'll win the division. I'll take that. If we get by Tennessee those percentages go up very high. Hell, hopefully Cinci does the job too so it's officially 100%.

Tennessee worries me the most.

The Raiders....not so much.

JTagg7754
12-23-2010, 10:33 AM
Whitehurt will probably still be "commanding" that offense so you should be OK. You have to be fucking pumped for the turnaround, right? Man, I guess you guys really were playing for Bradford last season haha.

Rausch
12-23-2010, 10:34 AM
We'll get 2 out of the 3 things you listed. If the Rams lose in Seattle in Week 17, I'm going to be pissed.

The Rams are clearly the better team.


For all that's worth...

Rams Fan
12-23-2010, 10:34 AM
Well the Chiefs are the only thing in the NFL that matters, and they won in Seattle by 18 and in STL by only 14. So you guys are 4 points better. But they're at home too, so give them 3 points. 28-27 Rams.

There we go. I have no clue how the crowd in Seattle will effect the game, though. If the Rams can go to the playoffs, the rebuilding is almost complete.

JTagg7754
12-23-2010, 10:36 AM
.

Rams Fan
12-23-2010, 10:36 AM
The Rams are clearly the better team.


For all that's worth...

The better team doesn't let the 49ers win in OT by letting Smith escape a sack. The better team doesn't lose in OT because of a dumb PI call. Anyways, Shurmur will find a way to choke the lead. He goes into conservative playcalling mode when the Rams have a lead in the 4th quarter.

Rausch
12-23-2010, 10:36 AM
Tennessee worries me the most.

The Raiders....not so much.

If our DC ever decides to really come after a QB we can walk away early from the Titans game. As big a fan as I am Collins is about as mobile as post-achilles Marino and they have few downfield threats.

As I see it we're already in the playoffs. One and done.

Bring it on both sides. Unleash Charles and whatever we can muster from the front 7...

Rausch
12-23-2010, 10:37 AM
The better team doesn't let the 49ers win in OT by letting Smith escape a sack. The better team doesn't lose in OT because of a dumb PI call. Anyways, Shurmur will find a way to choke the lead. He goes into conservative playcalling mode when the Rams have a lead in the 4th quarter.

You'll fit in well here.

Stick around...

Bill Lundberg
12-23-2010, 10:39 AM
LOL how? B/c we played like absolute piss, in your place, and still won?? That logic makes no sense. If we're clicking on all cylinders, you're not beating us, period. We beat you guys in a race driving a ****ing hooptie haha. I'd be very worried about playing us at home where I think we're 5-2 this season. Losing to a Miami team that is close to flawless on the road and Houston who really isn't terrible.

Earth to captain dipshit - the first game we played was in Oakland this time it's in Arrowhead. On January 2nd the Raiders will be knocked out of the playoffs in KANSAS CITY.

JTagg7754
12-23-2010, 10:40 AM
Earth to captain dipshit - the first game we played was in Oakland this time it's in Arrowhead. On January 2nd the Raiders will be knocked out of the playoffs in KANSAS CITY.

Eh my mistake. Been a rough morning.

notorious
12-23-2010, 10:40 AM
LOL how? B/c we played like absolute piss, in your place, and still won?? That logic makes no sense. If we're clicking on all cylinders, you're not beating us, period. We beat you guys in a race driving a ****ing hooptie haha. I'd be very worried about playing us at home where I think we're 5-2 this season. Losing to a Miami team that is close to flawless on the road and Houston who really isn't terrible.

:facepalm:


You are not helping the Stereotype of Raiderfans right now.


JFC

DaFace
12-23-2010, 10:40 AM
LOL how? B/c we played like absolute piss, in your place, and still won?? That logic makes no sense. If we're clicking on all cylinders, you're not beating us, period. We beat you guys in a race driving a fucking hooptie haha. I'd be very worried about playing us at home where I think we're 5-2 this season. Losing to a Miami team that is close to flawless on the road and Houston who really isn't terrible.

Heh...short-term memory loss is creeping in, huh Al?

JTagg7754
12-23-2010, 10:41 AM
And personally I don't care about making the playoffs. We're not ready to play w/ those teams. Sure it'd be pretty to have in writing but I'm not about moral victories. I want a good team before we try to compete w/ the big boys.

Rams Fan
12-23-2010, 10:42 AM
And personally I don't care about making the playoffs. We're not ready to play w/ those teams. Sure it'd be pretty to have in writing but I'm not about moral victories. I want a good team before we try to compete w/ the big boys.

You should be proud about the Raiders this year. I think they're about a draft away from being a playoff quality team.

JTagg7754
12-23-2010, 10:42 AM
:facepalm:

You are not helping the Stereotype of Raiderfans right now.

JFC

Heh...short-term memory loss is creeping in, huh Al?

Yeah, I had a brain fart. I shouldn't go out holiday drinking the night before I have to be at work at 9 in the morning. Stupid people that come into town and don't have shit to do tomorrow talking me into bad life decisions. I need a nap haha

JTagg7754
12-23-2010, 10:44 AM
You should be proud about the Raiders this year. I think they're about a draft away from being a playoff quality team.

Oh I'm pumped about the turnaround except for one thing.... it means Jason Campbell will be around for a while. I hate his inconsistent ass. He'll play a good game or two and make you think he's got it then throw up shitters against some of the worst teams (take the Chiefs last year for instance when he got benched for Todd Collins) or the St Louis game this season (granted we didn't know the dramatic turnaround for you guys). Bruce had to save his ass that game

notorious
12-23-2010, 10:44 AM
Yeah, I had a brain fart. I shouldn't go out holiday drinking the night before I have to be at work at 9 in the morning. Stupid people that come into town and don't have shit to do tomorrow talking me into bad life decisions. I need a nap haha

Props for owning up.


You guys are a QB and OC away from being really scary.

Rams Fan
12-23-2010, 10:45 AM
Oh I'm pumped about the turnaround except for one thing.... it means Jason Campbell will be around for a while. I hate his inconsistent ass. He'll play a good game or two and make you think he's got it then throw up shitters against some of the worst teams (take the Chiefs last year for instance when he got benched for Todd Collins) or the St Louis game this season (granted we didn't know the dramatic turnaround for you guys). Bruce had to save his ass that game

That game made me pissed. A dumbass roughing the passer call. Maybe the Raiders draft a QB in the middle of the draft?

Rausch
12-23-2010, 10:47 AM
And personally I don't care about making the playoffs.

Then shut your whore mouth and go play farmaland or whatever the fuck menstruating women do on sundays...

JTagg7754
12-23-2010, 10:47 AM
Props for owning up.


You guys are a QB and OC away from being really scary.

That game made me pissed. A dumbass roughing the passer call. Maybe the Raiders draft a QB in the middle of the draft?

You guys are on the right path. We'll probably have an opening also b/c I doubt Bruce get's signed again. Dude might be a decent QB (like a notch above Campbell) but he can't stay healthy to save his life.

I'm really liking the Devlin kid out of Delaware. Saw him play at PSU when he was a freshman and he's progressed nicely. Won't be too expensive either (pick wise) b/c of where he plays.

Los Pollos Hermanos
12-23-2010, 10:49 AM
It'll be a bittersweet victory in a couple weeks b/c I ****ing hate the Chargers so damn much and beating you guys will probably put them in the playoffs :(

But then the Raiders could be the first team to ever sweep their division and miss the playoffs. That's something to hang your hat on.

Rams Fan
12-23-2010, 10:49 AM
You guys are on the right path. We'll probably have an opening also b/c I doubt Bruce get's signed again. Dude might be a decent QB (like a notch above Campbell) but he can't stay healthy to save his life.

I'm really liking the Devlin kid out of Delaware. Saw him play at PSU when he was a freshman and he's progressed nicely. Won't be too expensive either (pick wise) b/c of where he plays.

How is Jacoby Ford? Any chance he becomes the Raiders #1?

Hydrae
12-23-2010, 10:53 AM
And personally I don't care about making the playoffs. We're not ready to play w/ those teams. Sure it'd be pretty to have in writing but I'm not about moral victories. I want a good team before we try to compete w/ the big boys.

See, I look at it differently. I hope the Chiefs make the playoffs even though I know they will most likely be out the first round. But I want these young guys to have the experience of playing in the post season tournament so when they go back next year they are ready to take the next step and progress deep into the playoffs.

Rausch
12-23-2010, 10:53 AM
But then the Raiders could be the first team to ever sweep their division and miss the playoffs. That's something to hang your hat on.

That also means we don't make the playoffs.

And the Raiders sweep us.

LOSE-LOSE situation.

JTagg7754
12-23-2010, 10:54 AM
But then the Raiders could be the first team to ever sweep their division and miss the playoffs. That's something to hang your hat on.

THAT is something I would be extremely pumped about. I can't think of the last time we could say that. I mean, the Raiders ended a SHITLOAD of streaks this season.

Just to name some:

- Consecutive losses to SD (was at 13 I think)
- Double digit losing seasons
- 11 loss seasons
- winning record in the division
- Possible overall winning record..

many more also. I have been pleased w/ them this year but they're still not legit. Not yet. Close though.

How is Jacoby Ford? Any chance he becomes the Raiders #1?

I love Ford. He has been one fucking hell of a surprise. He is the reason we beat KC last time we played them. He single-handily took over that game especially when he burnt Flowers in OT (the guy everyone here said was better than Nnamdi......... very wrong).

He's never gonna be a number 1 guy though unfortunately. Raider fans keep whining about getting a WR first or spending big money of a Fitzy or something but I don't get it. We throw to our WRs maybe.... 8 times a game... all the WRs not just one of them. Why spend huge money on someone you're rarely gonna use b/c your offense is a run-based offense? We need a QB, RT, and OLB. If Seymour sticks around and we get some holes filled, I could see them being pretty dman good.

JTagg7754
12-23-2010, 10:55 AM
See, I look at it differently. I hope the Chiefs make the playoffs even though I know they will most likely be out the first round. But I want these young guys to have the experience of playing in the post season tournament so when they go back next year they are ready to take the next step and progress deep into the playoffs.

I can totally dig that logic. Hell, either of us may even make some noise and upset some people. It's all just a matter of opinion. You guys are a very young team and a team I said everyone would have to watch out for a couple of years ago.

cdcox
12-23-2010, 11:00 AM
86% is way too optimistic.

AND THE TIEBREAKERS AREN'T CALCULATED CORRECTLY!!!!!!!!!

If I'm reading the table correctly, it still shows the Chiefs having a chance to win the WC, which they do not.

Los Pollos Hermanos
12-23-2010, 11:03 AM
That also means we don't make the playoffs.

And the Raiders sweep us.

LOSE-LOSE situation.

I know. I'm not wishing for that, I just think it would be pretty crazy.

Rausch
12-23-2010, 11:06 AM
THAT is something I would be extremely pumped about. I can't think of the last time we could say that. I mean, the Raiders ended a SHITLOAD of streaks this season.

Just to name some:

- Consecutive losses to SD (was at 13 I think)
- Double digit losing seasons
- 11 loss seasons
- winning record in the division
- Possible overall winning record..

many more also. I have been pleased w/ them this year but they're still not legit. Not yet.

No, they aren't.

But step 1 is complete.

When you bitchslap your whole division you're doing something right. You have to start and end there.

Consistency, consistency, and then LEADERSHIP.

They won on the road, at home, everywhere vs. the most difficult of opponents. No matter how good or bad the division is those are always the most unpredictable and difficult games.

But after a huge win they'd play some NFCW dirtbag and lose. Or AFC cellar dweller and lose.

Leadership.

JTagg7754
12-23-2010, 11:08 AM
No, they aren't.

But step 1 is complete.

When you bitchslap your whole division you're doing something right. You have to start and end there.

Consistency, consistency, and then LEADERSHIP.

And this is where I worry. Campbell lacks those qualities and that's why I'm scared that if he's winning, he's gonna get a nice extension and we'll be a 6-10 team next year, then a 5-11 team, then a 8-8 team, then a 6-10 team etc for the better half of the decade.

They won on the road, at home, everywhere vs. the most difficult of opponents. No matter how good or bad the division is those are always the most unpredictable and difficult games.

But after a huge win they'd play some NFCW dirtbag and lose. Or AFC cellar dweller and lose.

Leadership.

Losing to SF and AZ just..... ruined me hahaha. Oh well, it's over and done w/, nothing can be done about it now.

Dartgod
12-23-2010, 01:00 PM
And this is where I worry. Campbell lacks those qualities and that's why I'm scared that if he's winning, he's gonna get a nice extension and we'll be a 6-10 team next year, then a 5-11 team, then a 8-8 team, then a 6-10 team etc for the better half of the decade.
We can only hope. :D
Posted via Mobile Device

alnorth
12-23-2010, 01:01 PM
This is far too optimistic. Lets assume the "chiefs win out" part of their 86% is about 75%. (I have no idea, just picking a number that looks good, I figure about 10% that the chiefs and chargers each lose only 1).

That implies the chiefs have about a 87% chance of winning each of their last two games. (square root of .75)

I'd say the chiefs have a slightly better than 50-50 chance of winning out (75% per game), and maybe at best, theres a 10% chance of the chiefs and chargers each dropping exactly 1 game. The third possible playoff scenario is laughably unlikely.

At best, being the wild-eyed chief homer I am, I'd say the chiefs have a 2/3 chance of making it.