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View Full Version : Football Long article on why there won't be a lockout.


Douche Baggins
02-01-2011, 02:22 PM
If you're into economics this might be really interesting. If not, you might shoot yourself in the head. I'm going to digest it later.

I quoted the ending. The meat is looooooooong. (no homo)

http://www.itsalloverfatman.com/broncos/entry/on-bubbles

I don’t think there’s any way that this goes past the Draft, because to even have a Draft, the NFLPA would have had to decline to use their decertification option. I simply don’t expect them to allow the process to go past the league’s second biggest weekend, from both a fan interest and TV revenue perspective, without holding it hostage to a sincere threat of decertification. This is literally the NFLPA’s only serious bullet, and they’re not going to let it go unfired because they lack the will to use it. The NFL knows that, the same as I know it.

No, I’m not in the posturing business, unless somebody wants to pay me to be, so I’m going to predict that a deal gets reached by April 1st. That will allow free agency to start before the Draft, and teams will be able to approach their player acquisition processes in the same order that they always did in the past, despite a possibly shortened time frame.

Both sides will win some battles and lose others. We’ll have a deal that increases the regular season to 18 games, and the playoff field to 7 teams on each side. There’ll be a rookie salary scale, and more roster spots. Non-revenue offseason activities will be reduced, and amazingly, the quality of the game will not suffer noticeably. There will probably be a minor amount of help given to the needs of the retired and retiring players, because that’s a major soft target, in a PR sense, for both sides of the negotiation.

The NFL’s teams will increase their earnings numbers some, and it will help, but it still won’t be nearly enough to make them intrinsically worth an average of $1 billion each, in what will continue to be a modest-growth environment. The bubble will go on, and when enough suckers lose their asses buying teams for way too much money, the bubble will burst. I only wish there was a way to short-sell assets like this, that are so clearly and hopelessly overvalued, because there’d be a killing to be made there, over a multiyear timeline. Watch, somebody will create a derivative security out of it, once this all gets substantially more obvious, and I won’t even get credit for the idea. All of y’all will know it was me, though, and I can at least take some solace in that.

Superturtle
02-01-2011, 02:27 PM
You only need 1 word. Money.

BCD
02-01-2011, 02:32 PM
18 games, and the playoff field to 7 teams Horrible idea.

notorious
02-01-2011, 02:34 PM
Horrible idea.

This.


Stupidest idea ever.

listopencil
02-01-2011, 02:39 PM
It's a great article, written by a Broncos fan, that applies to the entire NFL. Good stuff.

Douche Baggins
02-01-2011, 02:45 PM
This is interesting.

Chiefs 2nd to last in expenses, last in player salary.

http://farm6.static.flickr.com/5055/5408429648_008f72043d_z.jpg

Marcellus
02-01-2011, 02:54 PM
Kind of kicking dirt in Forbe's face but it makes sense.

The NFL has all the leverage.

Douche Baggins
02-01-2011, 02:54 PM
I live in Cleveland, and this is what happened to the Cleveland Indians. Cleveland is definitely a Browns town first, and people mostly only go to Tribe games when they’re competitive. Throughout the 90s, the Indians did a good job of developing and keeping young talent on reasonable deals. This is a mid-sized market, with about 3 million people in the metro area, so it should support a mid-sized payroll, and it did during those good years, when people saw a product worth going to games for.

Dick Jacobs (the winner) had bought the team in 1986 for $35 million, and he sold it in 2003 for $323 million to Larry Dolan (the sucker). Larry is part of a tremendously wealthy family, and his nephew James owns the New York Knicks and Rangers, but Larry wasn’t really all that personally wealthy, and he needed to lever way up in order to overpay for the team.

When he did, he had to immediately and dramatically cut costs to pay his debt service, and the team has resultingly gone to hell, except for one playoff season. Nobody goes to the games, and the franchise is a big loser, whose only hope to making any money is developing a bunch more young, cheap indentured servants within MLB’s draconian arbitration-driven system.

This right here is why I'm thankful the Hunts own the Chiefs and hopefully always will.

If some idiot bought the Chiefs they could really go to hell and never recover considering the market.

Marcellus
02-01-2011, 02:59 PM
Chances are, whatever incremental revenue that the NFLPA gets will come in the form of additional roster spots, to make up for injury-based attrition during the longer season. I could see rosters move from 53 to 57 players, and active rosters go from 45 to something like 48. NFL players actually miss a much smaller percentage of games due to injury than the players in any other major sport, so I don’t get too worked up about the rhetoric around increased injuries. I basically consider it to be posturing, in the interest of taking some of the new revenue on the deal. In the case of Peter King constantly worrying about it in print, I consider it to be him being a credulous fool, as usual. (Good Heavens! What if Tom Brady is hurt during the extra two games? Again… What do you mean the NFL went on just fine without him last time? And that he was injured in the first quarter of the first game of the season? That’s not how I remember it! Where’s my microbrewed maple nut crunch black and tan venti cream ale grande stout latte to take with me on the Acela?)


Very interesting point if true.

suzzer99
02-01-2011, 03:15 PM
So how do you do a 7-team per conference playoff - award only 1 first round bye and 6 games the first weekend?

listopencil
02-01-2011, 04:36 PM
So how do you do a 7-team per conference playoff - award only 1 first round bye and 6 games the first weekend?

Yeah, that's the only way it makes sense.

bowener
02-01-2011, 05:35 PM
Yeah, that's the only way it makes sense.

I don't know what they will do, but I can tell you they want to extend the season as long as possible for television revenue. NFL is jealous of the ridiculously long seasons that both the NBA and MLB have.

BryanBusby
02-01-2011, 05:37 PM
That's a long ass article that could of been summed up quickly with:

"There won't be a lockout because the owners will declare an impasse and force the terms of their last offer onto the players. There could be a strike, though."

Pestilence
02-01-2011, 05:39 PM
So how do you do a 7-team per conference playoff - award only 1 first round bye and 6 games the first weekend?

Interesting if true.

Douche Baggins
02-01-2011, 05:40 PM
The 1-team-gets-a-bye thing might be in the better interests of good teams anyway considering the recent chokefest of top seeds.

philfree
02-01-2011, 06:15 PM
So how do you do a 7-team per conference playoff - award only 1 first round bye and 6 games the first weekend?

Yes and it would make for a fun two days of football on wildcard weekend. Be like March Madness.


PhilFree:arrow: