View Full Version : Environment Scientists Connect Global Warming to Extreme Rain
02-17-2011, 04:16 AM
Of course they did. What's next? Tornados and Hurricanes?
SETH BORENSTEIN 02/16/11 03:24 PM
WASHINGTON — Extreme rainstorms and snowfalls have grown substantially stronger, two studies suggest, with scientists for the first time finding the telltale fingerprints of man-made global warming on downpours that often cause deadly flooding.
Two studies in Wednesday's issue of the journal Nature link heavy rains to increases in greenhouse gases more than ever before.
One group of researchers looked at the strongest rain and snow events of each year from 1951 to 1999 in the Northern Hemisphere and found that the more recent storms were 7 percent wetter. That may not sound like much, but it adds up to be a substantial increase, said the report from a team of researchers from Canada and Scotland.
The study didn't single out specific storms but examined worst-of-each-year events all over the Northern Hemisphere. While the study ended in 1999, the close of the decade when scientists say climate change kicked into a higher gear, the events examined were similar to more recent disasters: deluges that triggered last year's deadly floods in Pakistan and in Nashville, Tenn., and this winter's paralyzing blizzards in parts of the United States.
The change in severity was most apparent in North America, but that could be because that's where the most rain gauges are, scientists said.
Rest of Article: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/02/16/global-warming-extreme-rain_n_824184.html
02-17-2011, 06:42 AM
NO WARMING in the ATMOSPHERE
NO WARMING in the OCEANS
NO NET ICE MELT
NO BREAKOUT in CANE Activity
NO RISE in OCEAN LEVELS
NO WARMING on the SURFACE of ANTARCTICA and SIBERIA (no cities there)
What's a tippy toppiest "top scientist" to do to keep his taxpayer funding flowing?
Blame the rain, and get a quality unbiased and thorough "journalist" like
to do an unbiased "news report" about it...
and never notice that DROUGHTS are also blamed on Algore's FRAUD, because whether it is wet or dry that is always
"because of THE FRAUD of Global (non) Warming"
part of our "US media..."
02-17-2011, 10:05 AM
Indeed, we've got this one from ol Seth Borenstein...
"That's because with a warmer climate, there's more moisture in the air, which makes storms including blizzards, more intense"
BUT THAT SHOULD REDUCE DROUGHT, RIGHT???
not according to the tippy toppiests...
"Early Warning Signs of Global Warming: Droughts and Fires"
So whether it is wet "because of increased moisture," or drought "because of the warming," it is ALWAYS
"because of (The FRAUD of) Global (non) Warming..."
02-17-2011, 11:13 AM
Will there are two studies out. One about the particular flooding in England a year or two ago. Using physics modeling of weather and running this over this particular area several times you get about a 20% higher chance of flooding with a rise in CO 2 and rise in temperature over previous 50 year history. It is about the effect of GW in this local which sees increase chance of flooding when weather patterns turn wet.
The second study is about the US only. Again it does not include areas where Climate Change will lead to less rain but to areas that will see increase in size of storms when they happen. Simple understanding about weather patterns is impossible. Fairly straight forward trends in overall climate for different areas is possible to predict. The distinction is about scope and scale.
02-17-2011, 11:16 AM
02-17-2011, 01:39 PM
"with a rise in CO 2 and rise in temperature"
There is NO RISE in any Earth temperature other than the surface of growing urban areas, and precisely no rise in the atmosphere according to the two and only two instruments we possess to measure it...
02-17-2011, 01:53 PM
I heard that it was global warming, not taking viagra, that causes 4 hour woodies.
02-17-2011, 01:55 PM
Whether you are up for four hours or four minutes, it is definitely
"because of (The FRAUD of) Global (non) Warming"
02-18-2011, 03:24 PM
I call B.S.
02-18-2011, 05:06 PM
This is only part, with the basic message and method, of a Scientific American article coming out in the March issue. It is another physical system that gives us a thermometer and in this case a climatic response to changes in temperature whatever the cause.
"Some present-day climate patterns are well known, such as the El Niño and La Niña circulations in the Pacific. A lesser known but equally important pattern is the primary precipitation feature on the planet: a band of heavy rainfall that circles the globe in the tropics and migrates north or south seasonally with the angle of the sun. The area in which it moves is known as the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). Any change in the earth’s temperature, as a result of incoming solar radiation or greenhouse gases,can affect the rain band, which provides the precipitation that feeds equatorial agriculture. The band also plays a central role in the monsoons of
Asia, Africa and India and the large convection cells that transport heat from the equator toward the poles. The frequency and intensity of El Niño and La Niña events and the strength and duration of hurricane seasons in the Pacific and Atlantic can all be influenced by variations in the band’s position. Changes in rainfall resulting from a permanent shift of the band would dramatically alter the equatorial environment, with effects reaching worldwide. And we have good reason to believe the band is shifting. Until recently, climate scientists did not know whether the current annual range of the band’s midline—from 3°N to 10°N latitude over the Pacific Ocean—was
its historical range. But now field measurements from latitudes bracketing the ITCZ have allowed our colleagues and us to define how the band has moved over the past 1,200 years. A large shift of five degrees northward—about 550 kilometers—occurred from about 400 years ago until today.
Discovery of that shift led us to a startling realization: small increases in the greenhouse effect can fundamentally alter tropical rainfall. We can now
predict where the ITCZ will move through 2100 as the atmosphere warms further. We can also predict whether rainfall may rise or fall across the world’s equatorial zones, the probable effects across higher latitudes in Asia, Central America and the U.S. southern tier, and what those changes might mean for weather and food production. Some places are likely to benefit, but many others, we fear, will face dry times.
Medieval Unknown until we began mapping rainfall history,
scientists had little data about where the ITCZ had been during the past millennium. The band hovers near the equator, but it can be tens or hundreds of kilometers wide, depending on local conditions and seasonal sunshine. Because the zone is highly pronounced over the Pacific, that region is ideal for tracking its movement. And because the rain band girds the earth, Pacific trends indicate global changes. Scientists can profile the sun’s strength from isotopes such as carbon 14 in tree rings and beryllium 10 in ice cores and can reconstruct the historic profile of worldwide greenhouse gases from air bubbles trapped in tubular cores of ice extracted
from polar regions. By comparing solar output and greenhouse gas levels with the ITCZ’s position over centuries, we can infer how tropical rainfall might change in the 21st century in response to rising greenhouse gas emissions. Clever investigators have identified many different indicators of global temperature during the past millennium. Two periods stand out. Around a.d. 800, global temperatures were similar to those in the late 1800s. Temperatures then rose during the Medieval Warm Period (a.d. 800– 1200), reaching levels similar to 20th-cen- tury temperatures. They gradually settled and fell during the Little Ice Age (a.d. 1400– 1850). In the past two decades the sun’s output has remained essentially constant, yet both temperature and levels of carbon dioxide—the most abundant man-made greenhouse gas—have become significantly higher than at any point in the
past 1,200 years. Atmospheric scientists knew few specifics about past tropical climate, however, when we began our work. Sea floor sediments, which can provide exquisite records of climate on multithousand-year
timescales, accumulate too slowly to record much information about the past 1,000 years. Many corals produce annual bands, but the creatures rarely live longer than 300 years, providing no records from
300 to 1,000 years ago. Mapping rainfall would allow us to fill in the missing information about the ITCZ’s position over the past millennium. Usually determining rainfall once it has hit the ocean is a lost cause. But small islands scattered across the Pacific have enclosed lakes and ponds that can reveal the history. In the past six years we have collected dozens of sediment cores from the bottoms.
Algae: Rain Gauge of the Ages
Algae obtain all their hydrogen from the water in which they live. By measuring the two stable isotopes of hydrogen—deuterium and protium—in the lipids of algae that are preserved in sediment underneath tropical lakes, we can infer the amount of rainfall that occurred when they lived. The deuterium/protium (D/H) ratio of many algae has a linear relation with the D/H ratio of the water. The water ratio, in turn, reflects the rate of precipitation relative to evaporation in a lake’s area. Within the tropical rain band region, where rainfall is frequent and heavy, the D/H ratio of lake and seawater is low. Outside the region, where evaporation can exceed precipitation, the D/H ratio is high. So we can use the varying D/H ratios of algal lipids found deeper and deeper in sediment to infer past rainfall. Fortunately for us, algae also adjust the D/H ratio of their lipids in response to salinity. Special conditions on Christmas Island created a natural experiment for us to calibrate this response. The island hosts a series of ponds that have similar temperatures, light levels, nutrient levels and water D/H ratios, yet they differ widely in their salinities. We found that as the salinity increased so did the D/H ratio of lipids produced by cyanobacteria, in a linear fashion. Because the salinity of saltwater ponds decreases when rain is abundant and increases when it is dry, the salinity effect on lipid D/H acts in the same direction as the rainfall amount effect, making lipid D/H ratios sensitive gauges of hydrologic change.
These results, alone, are like geeks at the prom: they need dates! A sediment’s age is determined by two radioactive isotopes, carbon 14 and lead 210, which have half-lives of 5,730 and 22.3 years, respectively. By comparing the hydrogen isotope ratios at various dates, we have reconstructed the series of precipitation changes going back 1,200 years."
02-18-2011, 06:45 PM
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02-18-2011, 10:05 PM
There will be a day....sometime in the future....where citizens of this earth will look back upon those that bought into "global warming"....and laugh.....like our generation laughs at those that were suckered into "indulgences".
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