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View Full Version : Nat'l Security $5 gas and Obamas bans on drilling


HonestChieffan
02-23-2011, 07:52 AM
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41717408

Will $5 gas move us to drill here? How can we ignore our own resources under that scenario?

http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/energy/2011-02-22-1Alibyagas22_ST_N.htm

oldandslow
02-23-2011, 08:12 AM
http://www.cnbc.com/id/41717408

Will $5 gas move us to drill here? How can we ignore our own resources under that scenario?

http://www.usatoday.com/money/industries/energy/2011-02-22-1Alibyagas22_ST_N.htm

We may drill here...it will have no impact on $5.00 gas...that's coming.

Bewbies
02-23-2011, 08:17 AM
"Energy prices will necessarily skyrocket."

Chiefshrink
02-23-2011, 08:29 AM
Obama wants "CHAOS,CHAOS,CHAOS" PERIOD!!! He's getting it around the world now if can just get more here in his "fundamentally transformed Amerika"!!!!

teedubya
02-23-2011, 08:35 AM
Obama wants "CHAOS,CHAOS,CHAOS" PERIOD!!! He's getting it around the world now if can just get more here in his "fundamentally transformed Amerika"!!!!

Do you really think that "Obama" wants it? Obama is a pawn, man.

oldandslow
02-23-2011, 08:45 AM
This really has nothing to do with politics and everything to do with 7 billion people clamoring for energy. The impact of scarce oil is often discounted by arguments that it is only the cheap oil that is now limited, and that limitless unconventional supplies are available, just at a higher price.

This argument, however, fundamentally misunderstands the basic premise about flow rates. It has very little to do with reserves in the ground theoretically recoverable at some market price.

The flow rates of much conventional oil production are very high. Giant oil fields with deep reservoirs full of light sweet crude oil under intense geologic pressure produced hundreds of thousands of barrels per day from just a few dozen wells. We have all seen pictures of blow-outs spewing thousands of barrels of oil onto the ground. Oil under intense pressure is capable of creating very high flow rates quickly and with little up front investment.

By contrast, the process of scaling up production of unconventional oil is very, very slow and capital intensive. If global conventional oil production peaks and falls at a 2% annual rate that will result in a loss of 1.5 million barrels per day of oil production. Even if alternative sources of liquid fuels can only be increased 500,000 bpd per year (and that is a really optimistic estimate), all the negative effects of oil scarcity will be felt despite the availability of "oil" in the tar sands and deep undersea offshore of Brazil or the ultra-thin sliver of oil spread over 200,000 square miles in the Bakken Formation that will take countless wells to fully produce.

These unconventional sources will be very nearly irrelevant once conventional oil begins to decline.

fan4ever
02-23-2011, 08:55 AM
I hope it stays $5 a gallon 'til November of 2012.

dirk digler
02-23-2011, 08:56 AM
Bill O'Reilly said the other night on his show he is hearing from sources that oil companies are pushing for $5 gas

oldandslow
02-23-2011, 08:58 AM
I hope it stays $5 a gallon 'til November of 2012.

It will go up and down - but trend up. November 2012 isn't a magic date. It will go up no matter who is in office.

oldandslow
02-23-2011, 08:59 AM
Bill O'Reilly said the other night on his show he is hearing from sources that oil companies are pushing for $5 gas

of course they are. When wholesale costs skyrocket something must occur at retail.

teedubya
02-23-2011, 09:02 AM
Imagine how how gas prices will be once the dollar is taken off of world reserve status... and with the dollar in a free fall right now, it won't be too long. $10 gas isn't unimaginable.

dirk digler
02-23-2011, 09:03 AM
of course they are. When wholesale costs skyrocket something must occur at retail.

His point was they are doing this unscrupulously.

fan4ever
02-23-2011, 09:03 AM
It will go up and down - but trend up. November 2012 isn't a magic date. It will go up no matter who is in office.

That's fine. I just want this country to realize it's long past due to develop more of our own resources whether it's an immediate fix or not.

mlyonsd
02-23-2011, 09:03 AM
It will go up and down - but trend up. November 2012 isn't a magic date. It will go up no matter who is in office.

$5 gas would kill any recovery seen in the economy. While 11/12 isn't a magic date it's an important one politically and it will matter to the guy in office.

jiveturkey
02-23-2011, 09:07 AM
I've wondered how drilling here would affect what we pay for a barrel of oil???

I can certainly understand the argument that we don't want to support hostile nations buy purchasing their oil but how does drilling in the US effect the price of oil on a global scale?

Lzen
02-23-2011, 09:08 AM
This really has nothing to do with politics....

Not entirely true. We keep printing money.

dirk digler
02-23-2011, 09:09 AM
$5 gas would kill any recovery seen in the economy. While 11/12 isn't a magic date it's an important one politically and it will matter to the guy in office.

Yep.

oldandslow
02-23-2011, 09:10 AM
$5 gas would kill any recovery seen in the economy. While 11/12 isn't a magic date it's an important one politically and it will matter to the guy in office.

Oh, I agree that it will matter to him...but it will not matter overall...we are in an oil platteau where prices will rise until they meet demand destruction, fall, and begin to rise again...the problem is that each time oil rises oil it is just a bit higher. Over the past 10 years we have seen, 3 then 4, and now $5 dollar gas.

One caveat is that oil is much more inelastic than most goods. We have to have it in order to maintain any semblance of current lifestyles. We will pay almost any price.

One other issue that I haven't discussed is oil = food, but you know that already.

BucEyedPea
02-23-2011, 09:10 AM
Bill O'Reilly said the other night on his show he is hearing from sources that oil companies are pushing for $5 gas

Bill O'Reilly typically takes a left-wing stand on the oil industry. And like the left he's ignorant about economics. Trouble in the ME typically threatens aggregate supply due to uncertaintly over enough supply which causes a rise in rates. Just because oil companies like a higher price is really not as relevant.

oldandslow
02-23-2011, 09:13 AM
I've wondered how drilling here would affect what we pay for a barrel of oil???

I can certainly understand the argument that we don't want to support hostile nations buy purchasing their oil but how does drilling in the US effect the price of oil on a global scale?

Not much...We reached peak oil in the US around 1975. There aren't enough reserves of conventional oil to make much difference.

dirk digler
02-23-2011, 09:18 AM
Bill O'Reilly typically takes a left-wing stand on the oil industry. And like the left he's ignorant about economics. Trouble in the ME typically threatens aggregate supply due to uncertaintly over enough supply which causes a rise in rates. Just because oil companies like a higher price is really not as relevant.

I agree with him. They want $5 gas and what is happening in the ME gives them cover to do exactly that.

But you can bet when it gets that high even conservatives will be preaching about alternative energy and start funding such projects. You can bank on it.

chiefsnorth
02-23-2011, 09:19 AM
You mistake the left for people who care about gas prices. They want everyone to be priced out of driving. Look at their legislative agenda. They want us usig walking and bicycle trails, riding buses, riding trains.

As usual with them, they want you to commute on their terms. You should only do what they allow you to do.

Actually, collectivists love the more people become reliant on government in whatever form that takes. If you start to rely on government to give you subsidized transit that you can afford, if you can't get to work without kissing the donkey ring, of course they love that. More votes and more tolerance for taxes.

Donger
02-23-2011, 09:20 AM
I've wondered how drilling here would affect what we pay for a barrel of oil???

I can certainly understand the argument that we don't want to support hostile nations buy purchasing their oil but how does drilling in the US effect the price of oil on a global scale?

With our proven reserves? Probably $10 or so per barrel maximum.

Donger
02-23-2011, 09:21 AM
We reached peak oil in the US around 1975. There aren't enough reserves of conventional oil to make much difference.

Wrong.

oldandslow
02-23-2011, 09:22 AM
You mistake the left for people who care about gas prices. They want everyone to be priced out of driving. Look at their legislative agenda. They want us usig walking and bicycle trails, riding buses, riding trains.

As usual with them, they want you to commute on their terms. You should only do what they allow you to do. Because, you know... Global warming, and... Green... And stuff.

The left are simply impotent when it comes to energy...as are the right.

Oil is a miracle. It has an energy density and return on investment unmatched by anything on the planet. It is also finite.

7 billion. People. Needing oil.

Lzen
02-23-2011, 09:22 AM
Not much...We reached peak oil in the US around 1975. There aren't enough reserves of conventional oil to make much difference.

I just don't buy this argument.

oldandslow
02-23-2011, 09:22 AM
Wrong.

Donger. No I am not. Every time we have this discussion you drag out Bakken or tar sands. They are NOT conventional oil and have huge flow problems. But you know that already.

BucEyedPea
02-23-2011, 09:23 AM
I agree with him. They want $5 gas and what is happening in the ME gives them cover to do exactly that.
Irrelevant what they want. Ultimately it would just cause them to lose their market as alternatives would be explored and more efficient cars were made. The market will still have the last say.

But you can bet when it gets that high even conservatives will be preaching about alternative energy and start funding such projects. You can bank on it.

Conservatives won't need to preach. The market will develop the solution as I've always said.

On the other hand the left will use it to coerce transportation solutions on us via govt which will of course, be worse or less efficient.

oldandslow
02-23-2011, 09:24 AM
I just don't buy this argument.

It really doesn't matter whether you buy it or not. Look at the amount of reserves left. Look at the amount of consumption in the US and the world. Then do the math.

Lzen
02-23-2011, 09:25 AM
It really doesn't matter whether you buy it or not. Look at the amount of reserves left. Look at the amount of consumption in the US and the world. Then do the math.

You're telling me that if they started drilling for new reserves (Anwar, etc?) that it wouldn't make a difference? I don't buy that.

chiefsnorth
02-23-2011, 09:26 AM
The left are simply impotent when it comes to energy...as are the right.

Oil is a miracle. It has an energy density and return on investment unmatched by anything on the planet. It is also finite.

7 billion. People. Needing oil.

I don't think for one second that they care about getting us off oil for altruistic purposes. They care about using this problem to leverage control over more voting blocs.

If gas prices reached a permanently high plateau, and over a decade or so, say 5% more people relied on public transit to get to work, then the door is open to demagogue that issue like they do social security or prescription drugs or whatever else. "You better vote for us, those guys are going to take your (necessity of life) away".

It's like a cartoon villain seeing dollar signs in their eyes. If there was a power sign, that's what they would have in their eyes.

oldandslow
02-23-2011, 09:27 AM
You're telling me that if they started drilling for new reserves (Anwar, etc?) that it wouldn't make a difference? I don't buy that.

Please...start today...they will run out in about 6 months if we used US supplies only.

Look at the amount estimated to be there and look at our consumption.

oldandslow
02-23-2011, 09:30 AM
I have to go teach a class and I probably am not going to convince anyone. Still, if you are truly interested in the subject, go to www.theoildrum.com. They have some of the best geologists on the planet talking about this very subject.

Lzen
02-23-2011, 09:34 AM
I have to go teach a class and I probably am not going to convince anyone. Still, if you are truly interested in the subject, go to www.theoildrum.com (http://www.theoildrum.com). They have some of the best geologists on the planet talking about this very subject.

I'll check it out.

dirk digler
02-23-2011, 09:44 AM
Irrelevant what they want. Ultimately it would just cause them to lose their market as alternatives would be explored and more efficient cars were made. The market will still have the last say.



Conservatives won't need to preach. The market will develop the solution as I've always said.

On the other hand the left will use it to coerce transportation solutions on us via govt which will of course, be worse or less efficient.

It has already taken decades for market solutions and nothing has taken hold or replaced the need for oil and gas in cars.

Donger
02-23-2011, 09:45 AM
Donger. No I am not. Every time we have this discussion you drag out Bakken or tar sands. They are NOT conventional oil and have huge flow problems. But you know that already.

It's still oil. Peak oil has nothing to do with "Yeah, it's there but it's really hard to get and expensive."

But, you know that.

Donger
02-23-2011, 09:50 AM
You're telling me that if they started drilling for new reserves (Anwar, etc?) that it wouldn't make a difference? I don't buy that.

ANWR alone holds about 10 billion barrels, which would supply us for about a year (if all imports stopped). OCS probably holds a good 100 billion barrels.

healthpellets
02-23-2011, 09:58 AM
anyone concerned about gas prices need to look in to options of working from home.

Lzen
02-23-2011, 10:00 AM
anyone concerned about gas prices need to look in to options of working from home.

Wish I could. Unfortunately, that's not an option in my line of work.

MOhillbilly
02-23-2011, 10:01 AM
Obama wants "CHAOS,CHAOS,CHAOS" PERIOD!!! He's getting it around the world now if can just get more here in his "fundamentally transformed Amerika"!!!!

im ready.

Lzen
02-23-2011, 10:02 AM
I have to go teach a class and I probably am not going to convince anyone. Still, if you are truly interested in the subject, go to www.theoildrum.com (http://www.theoildrum.com). They have some of the best geologists on the planet talking about this very subject.

Interestingly, this site you suggested linked me to this article.

http://www.thenational.ae/thenationalconversation/industry-insights/energy/peak-oil-believers-put-their-faith-in-leaky-arguments

Looks like there is a ton of info to be absorbed from that site. Thanks for the link.

BucEyedPea
02-23-2011, 10:07 AM
It has already taken decades for market solutions and nothing has taken hold or replaced the need for oil and gas in cars.

Your observation that there has been no market solution is flawed. By that I mean your thinking nothing has taken hold as being the market. If something is working for most people it will still sell. You're making the mistake the left/progressives make that if the outcome is not one you like ( different energy source) or prefer that it's not the market working. It doesn't work that way. If prices soared we'd have those alternatives because too high an expense won't sell at some point. It has to reach that point and hasn't.

In the 1980s and 90's gas was cheap. Why do you think prices dropped off in the 1980's? It was because of smaller cars and conservation by people which is the market working which was in response to the oil embargo earlier in the 70's. Plus removal of price controls by Reagan which allowed the market to work by sending proper price signals.

Now why did oil price soar in the 1970's? That was due to govt actions—not the market—although the market still responded. In that case it was an embargo by OPEC countries "in response to the U.S. decision to re-supply the Israeli military" during the Yom Kippur war. So THAT was not due to the market either. When our govt got rid of price controls along with what markets did in response, oil became more affordable again because it led to less demand. That is the market working.

So the idea that, we are still driving cars with an internal combustion engine which uses gasoline because of the incredible amount of energy it provides, is the market working. That you don't like that outcome does not mean it's not working. It only means you don't like the outcome. Hence your call for govt interference.

The progressive left's motto is "fix it until it's broke."

Chiefshrink
02-23-2011, 10:18 PM
Do you really think that "Obama" wants it? Obama is a pawn, man.

Oh I agree he is a pawn to the teleprompter(Marxists behind the scenes) but it's the Marxist way in order to destroy capitalism. He definitely wants it. This is his worldview of how to transform America.:thumb:

Some say I use the "Marxist" term way too much but I don't think so.

Actions speak louder than words!!

Progressivism = Marxism, PERIOD!!!:shake:

LiveSteam
02-23-2011, 10:39 PM
Bloom burg not sure who that is But they are predicting $220.00 a barrel of oil
before all is said & done in the Middle east

suzzer99
02-23-2011, 11:04 PM
ANWR alone holds about 10 billion barrels, which would supply us for about a year (if all imports stopped). OCS probably holds a good 100 billion barrels.

Yeah but we'd only be able to pull out about 250 million gallons/year, or about 3% of our current yearly oil consumption. It wouldn't make much difference in our consumption and would have zero impact on world prices. The only impact would be some oil companies get very rich and Alaskans get a bigger rebate check.

suzzer99
02-23-2011, 11:07 PM
Conservatives won't need to preach. The market will develop the solution as I've always said.

The problem is the market is by nature reactionary. What happens if we get an oil crisis that makes the 70s look like a walk in the park, and doesn't let up? Yeah we'd get our alternative energy solutions, eventually, assumin our civilization doesn't disintegrate in the mean time.

FD
02-23-2011, 11:11 PM
Imagine how how gas prices will be once the dollar is taken off of world reserve status... and with the dollar in a free fall right now, it won't be too long. $10 gas isn't unimaginable.

When is the dollar going to be taken off reserve status? What is the alternative?

Even if it were, keep in mind the foreign currency exchange is a massive and very liquid market, and the transaction costs involved in exchanging currency before purchasing a commodity like oil are trivial compared its real value. So under your hypothetical it still wouldn't matter.

Also, I'd just like to add the President does not determine the price of gas no matter how much you like him or dislike him. It was absurd when it was said about Bush and its absurd now.

suzzer99
02-23-2011, 11:14 PM
Oh I don't know. I'm thinking that scheme to get us all to go running into the arms of some kind of demagogue by bumping public transportation ridership by 5% sounds pretty realistic. I can picture Obama and the rest of the Marxist illuminati sitting around in smoke-filled rooms twirling their mustaches and laughing maniacally while they dream that one up. I mean it just makes too much sense.