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View Full Version : Economics Burst of hiring could mark turning point for jobs


Pitt Gorilla
03-05-2011, 10:10 PM
A little good news for everyone.

http://wcfcourier.com/business/article_80038874-a0b8-5f18-83ed-87268b10dadd.html

By JEANNINE AVERSA | Posted: Friday, March 4, 2011 5:17 pm

Companies added more workers in February than in any month in almost a year _ a turning point for the economy that finally pushed the unemployment rate below 9 percent. Economists say the stronger hiring should endure all year.

The 222,000 jobs the private sector created more than offset layoffs by financially squeezed state and local governments. They slashed 30,000 jobs, the most since November.

The unemployment rate sank to 8.9 percent, the lowest since April 2009. The rate has now fallen almost a full percentage point in just three months _ the sharpest drop in a generation.

Hiring last month was broad _ factories, trucking companies, health care providers, construction firms, hotels and restaurants all added jobs.

"Bottom line: The labor market is turning the corner," said Michael Darda, chief economist at MKM Partners, an economic research firm.

The figures suggest the economy has entered a healthier phase typical of what economists call a virtuous cycle: Americans are spending more, which raises corporate profits, which leads to hiring and then more spending and growth.

At UPS, for example, revenue and profits have both risen because of the growing economy. The company has nearly 250 job openings for salaried positions, up from 100 this time last year, and is hiring hourly workers at 150 locations.

Normally, the company just rehires its temporary employees from the holidays if it needs them. But this year, "we've already hired a lot of those folks back, and we still have more needs," said Matt Lavery, UPS' head of recruiting.

During the recession, the cycle was more vicious than virtuous: Waves of layoffs suppressed consumer spending, which lowered corporate profits and triggered more job cuts.

On Wall Street, another spike in oil prices rattled investors and overshadowed the good news on hiring. The Dow Jones industrial average fell 88 points, one day after posting its biggest gain of 2011.

Other forces are still working against the economic recovery. State and local governments are expected to keep shedding jobs. And inflation and higher gas prices resulting from the Middle East unrest pose threats.

Still, economists now think private companies will feel comfortable enough to add 200,000 jobs a month through the rest of this year. That would be an improvement from the average of 150,000 jobs created over the past three months.

It takes about 125,000 new jobs a month just to keep up with population growth and hold the unemployment rate stable. It could take up to 300,000 to reduce the unemployment rate significantly, economists say.

Stronger job growth should put the economy on track to grow at a roughly 4 percent annual rate in the first three months of this year, economists said. That would be much better than the 2.8 percent pace in the final three months of 2010.

Job creation has been the missing ingredient in the economic recovery. The economy's service sector, which employs most of the work force, is expanding at the fastest pace in more than five years. Shoppers are spending more. U.S. exporters are selling more abroad. Stock prices have surged.

"The last piston in the economic engine has begun to fire, pointing to sustained economic growth," said economist Sung Won Sohn at California State University.

That said, 8.9 percent unemployment is high by historical standards. Economists predict it will take four or five years for it to drop to something more normal, near 6 percent. And as more people start looking for jobs later this year, the rate could rise. Government surveys of households don't count people without jobs as unemployed unless they say they're looking for one.

But for the moment, the jobs picture looks brighter than most people would have expected three months ago. The issue will be a key factor in President Barack Obama's expected re-election bid next year.

"Our economy's now added 1.5 million private-sector jobs over the last year, and that's progress," the president said at a stop in Miami where he talked about competitiveness in the global economy. "But we need to keep building on that momentum."

The report would have been even brighter if state and local governments had added jobs, as they normally do in economic recoveries, instead of cutting them. Historically, states and cities contribute 10 to 15 percent of the jobs created during recoveries.

Factoring in the government layoffs, the economy added 192,000 jobs last month. January's job gains were revised upward, to 63,000. Some of February's increase was due to people returning to payrolls after dropping off because of severe weather earlier this winter.

Still, the job gains were widespread. Factories added 33,000, the fourth straight month of gains. Manufacturers have created 190,000 jobs in the past year _ the highest 12-month total for that sector since 1998.

Education and health care added 40,000 jobs last month, professional and business services such as engineering, architecture and computer design added 47,000, leisure and hospitality 21,000, and transportation and warehousing 22,000.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress this week that the Fed would start pulling back the money it pumped into the economy once the recovery firmly takes hold. The Fed could also raise interest rates from their record lows, though most economists think that won't happen for at least another year.

The number of unemployed people in the United States dipped to 13.7 million, still nearly double the number before the recession began in December 2007. Including part-time workers who would rather be working full time, plus people who have given up looking altogether, roughly 25 million are "underemployed." That's 15.9 percent of the work force, the smallest share in almost two years.

The number of "long-term" unemployed, or people out of work six months or more, sank by 217,000 to just under 6 million.

Workers' paychecks were mostly flat in February. Average hourly earnings rose to $22.87, up 1 cent from January. Workers have little bargaining power to demand big pay raises because the job market is still healing slowly.

BucEyedPea
03-05-2011, 10:38 PM
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told Congress this week that the Fed would start pulling back the money it pumped into the economy once the recovery firmly takes hold.

Thus ends the next bubble and starts the next crash which will be worse.

The Mad Crapper
03-06-2011, 09:37 AM
http://www.dailyfinance.com/story/careers/real-unemployment-number/19833935/

More 3 card monte from our benevolent central planners.

BucEyedPea
03-07-2011, 07:32 AM
More govt lies.

The answer is that there were not 192,000 new jobs. Statistician John Williams estimates the reported gain was overstated by about 230,000 jobs. In other words, about 38,000 jobs were lost in February.


Why?
There are various reasons that job gains are overstated and losses understated. One is the BLS’s “birth-death model.” This is a way of estimating the net of non-reported new jobs from business start-ups and job losses from business shut-downs. During recessions this model doesn’t work, because the model is based on good times when new jobs always exceed lost jobs. On the “death” side, if a company goes out of business because of recession and, therefore, doesn’t report its payroll, the BLS assumes the previously reported employees are still in place. On the “birth” side, the BLS adds 30,000 jobs to the monthly numbers as an estimate of new start-ups.

Williams estimates the “death” side is really reducing employment by about 200,000 per month, and the “birth” side is stillborn. Therefore, “the BLS continues regularly to overestimate monthly growth in payroll employment by roughly 230,000 jobs.” The benchmark revisions of payroll jobs bear out Williams. The last two benchmark revisions resulted in a reduction of previously reported employment gains of about 2 million jobs.

Another indication is that despite 10 years of population growth, there are 8 to 9 million fewer Americans employed today than a decade ago.

Some “New Economy” we have. If only we could have the old one back.

The Mad Crapper
03-26-2011, 10:18 AM
Mass. job fair canceled because of lack of jobs
March 25, 2011 09:58 AM E-mail| |Comments ()| Text size – + E-mail this article To: Invalid email address Add a personal message: Your e-mail: Invalid email address Sending your articleYour article has been sent.
Associated Press

TAUNTON -- A Massachusetts employment organization has canceled its annual job fair because not enough companies have come forward to offer jobs.

Richard Shafer, chairman of the Taunton Employment Task Force, says 20 to 25 employers are needed for the fair scheduled for April 6, but just 10 tables had been reserved. One table was reserved by a nonprofit that offers human services to job seekers, and three by temporary employment agencies.

Shafer tells the Taunton Daily Gazette the lack of employers means the task force won't have enough money to properly advertise the fair.

The task force has been organizing the job fair nearly every year since 1984.

Shafer says the cancellation reflects the current economy -- even though things are getting better, companies are still cautious about hiring full-time workers.


http://www.boston.com/business/ticker/2011/03/mass_job_fair_c.html?p1=Local_Links

Mmmmmm mmmmmmm mmmmmmmm!

Stewie
03-26-2011, 01:55 PM
The birth/death model is being abused way beyond the ridiculous levels from 3-4 years ago. I guess we'll call it the "new invisible infinite job creation" program. They love those "programs!"

Chocolate Hog
03-27-2011, 03:44 AM
The economy will never improve until we start making things again. This is only treating a symptom of the problem.

The Mad Crapper
03-27-2011, 06:46 AM
The economy will never improve until we start making things again. This is only treating a symptom of the problem.

People want to "make things" but when you have hundreds of confusing regulations with 147 more pending, obamacare with all of it's open ended regulations, a tax code that requires a full time accountant to navigate, taxes that disincentize expansion, people get frustrated and say frig it.

FD
03-27-2011, 10:54 AM
The economy will never improve until we start making things again. This is only treating a symptom of the problem.

What do you mean? We manufacture more goods now than we ever have. Our manufacturing output in 2009 was $2.15 trillion (46 percent more than China), and represented 20 percent of total global manufacturing, the same share as we produced 20 years ago.

LiveSteam
03-27-2011, 11:13 AM
What do you mean? We manufacture more goods now than we ever have. Our manufacturing output in 2009 was $2.15 trillion (46 percent more than China), and represented 20 percent of total global manufacturing, the same share as we produced 20 years ago.

Hmm I dont believe this at all. Not for a second. One look at Detroit tells me other wise. We have shipped most of our industrial infrastructure over seas.
forced our people to compete with the worlds cheapest labor. Just take a look at the lack of the Tool & die industry. Their are more unemployed die makers & mechanist than ever before. I dont care what you manufacture. It all starts with tool & die makers. They make the tools that make the machines that make what ever??

vailpass
03-27-2011, 11:19 AM
Yeah! Food service jobs FTW! "Jobs" at or near the minimum wage level should not be counted as a method of measuring economic recovery.

FD
03-27-2011, 11:19 AM
Hmm I dont believe this at all. Not for a second. One look at Detroit tells me other wise. We have shipped most of our industrial infrastructure over seas.
forced our people to compete with the worlds cheapest labor. Just take a look at the lack of the Tool & die industry. Their are more unemployed die makers & mechanist than ever before. I dont care what you manufacture. It all starts with tool & die makers. They make the tools that make the machines that make what ever??

Well, your anecdotes about one specific industry aside, what I said was true. You can check it out yourself:

www.bea.gov (US)
http://unstats.un.org/unsd/snaama/dnllist.asp (global)

LiveSteam
03-27-2011, 11:27 AM
Well, your anecdotes about one specific industry aside, what I said was true. You can check it out yourself:

www.bea.gov (US)
http://unstats.un.org/unsd/snaama/dnllist.asp (global)

I dont care what your link says. I know better.
Throw up your link when Wallmart, Target ect have something MADE IN AMERICA in side their stores. A bizz over seas, owned by an American. Dont mean its American made.
If you knew anything about manufacturing?? you would understand with out Tool & die. you have no manufacturing capability's ya just dont plant a seed & add water & up pops a Bridgeport mill.
Anyone can run CNC or run old school mills & lathes. but it takes a Tool & die maker to make that mill. make the tooling for that mill ect. & now its all over in CHINA
But hay. We still make guns & Harley Davidson motor cycles