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View Full Version : U.S. Issues Markets turn negative on the year..heaviest trading volume since last May on SP500


petegz28
03-16-2011, 07:28 PM
The market sank 242 points (Dow Jones) and 24.99 points (SP500) today on the heaviest trading on the SPY (SP500 ETF) since last May. The bad news is we are just beginning this downward move. Higher oil, gas, and energy prices coupled with all the world turmoil and the Japan fallout (no pun intended) is going to wreak havoc on our economy.

The Yen hit an all-time high against the US$ today. That spells big trouble. Our country is going broke in a hurry. Our $ is in the fucking toilet. Countries are slowly but surely starting to pull away from the US$ as their reserve currency and what do we get out of this current Administration? "We need more debt!"

Dating back to the Greenspan days and continued by dumb fuck Bernanke A.K.A. "The Ben Bernak" we have managed to print so much money, borrow so much money and assume so many bad loans that the pimple is finally ready to burst. This one is going to hurt badly too. Just as the economy was starting to get a foothold on an upswing and the business cycle was starting to turn up we find ourselves in a bad position. That position is the inability to absorb the current turmoil around the world without any major impact to our economy. Quite the oppostie holds true. We are so fragile at this point in time that any major event or events such as we are seeing could be the proverbial straw that breaks the camels' back.

Gas is at $3.40ish a gallon in the KC area, food prices are soaring, jobs are not being created fast enough and all we hear about from the White House is more jibberish about green jobs and raising the debt limit. Our beloved Congress over the last decade has set us up for a pill that is too big to swallow.

HonestChieffan
03-16-2011, 07:30 PM
Overreaction creates great opportunities.

petegz28
03-16-2011, 07:38 PM
Overreaction creates great opportunities.

I would tend to agree but I do not see this as an overreaction but rather a delayed reaction. We are teetering on the brink of what I consider an unprecedented decline in our economy. However the effects of 1929 could be argued to be worse. But we are talking about 80+ years since then. Unemployment is still way too high and a blow to our economy could send us over the edge many thought we were headed for last time around. They may have been right just wrong about the timing.

Our business evironment today propses a higher degree of uncertainty than ever before. States are broke. People are out of jobs. Real costs are rising despite the Ben Bernak saying otherwise. And our $ continues to weaken. We export nothing. Therefore a weak $ is far from our best interest but that is what this Admin. keeps ordering up further weakening our economic situation. We are handing out 99 weeks worth of unemployment as it stands. We are haning onto the ledge by our fingertips and the fingers are slowly but surely losing their grip one finger at a time.

Increased welfare costs, increased social entitlement costs, increased borrowingm increased money printing and increased spending is now going to finally take its toll on us. It was a pipe-dreamed utopia many of us warned about to think we could do what we have done and not pay a price in the end. If you bought the BS from Paulson that letting AIG fail would cause financial chaos, you haven't seen nothin' yet.

HonestChieffan
03-16-2011, 07:43 PM
I think we have problems. But the over reaction and panic some put forward create opportunity for those who are willing to see the opportunity and act.

A tsunami and a nuclear issue in Japan, as bad as they are, are temporary and the market has over reacted.

I dont disagree with your observations at all but my future view is we will come through this and be stronger as a result. Long term views will say the opportunity is there.

petegz28
03-16-2011, 07:47 PM
I think we have problems. But the over reaction and panic some put forward create opportunity for those who are willing to see the opportunity and act.

A tsunami and a nuclear issue in Japan, as bad as they are, are temporary and the market has over reacted.

I dont disagree with your observations at all but my future view is we will come through this and be stronger as a result. Long term views will say the opportunity is there.

Not with what we are doing. You can only pretend so long that things aren't as bad as they are. Typically I would agree with your take about Japan and even the mideast turmoil. The problem is we are not in a typical situation and cannot absorb the effects. The best way I can describe it is, Congress has us in the bottom of the 9th, up by 1 run and we have walked the bases loaded with 0 outs. That is where all the run-away spedning, pretending inflation doesn't exist, pretending green jobs will save us and pretending we can indefinitely print more money without any costs to us has gotten us.

HonestChieffan
03-16-2011, 08:12 PM
Pete, is this your SHTF moment? Is this day one of the beginning of the end?


SHTF= Sh** hits the fan

Brock
03-16-2011, 08:19 PM
Meh. Panicky nonsense.

petegz28
03-16-2011, 08:23 PM
Pete, is this your SHTF moment? Is this day one of the beginning of the end?


SHTF= Sh** hits the fan

I'm just saying that I don't see us in the position to handle adversity like we could say 20 years ago. We have made a series of ignorant and stupid decisions over the last decade or so and they chicken's are coming home to roost. Just think about it for a second, oil is shooting back up, gas is shooting up, food is shooting up, costs of commodities are through the fucking roof, real jobless claims are not getting any better, spending is continuing at a record pace, welfare costs are at record levels and our $ ain't worth jack shit anymore, foreclosures are going off at a record pace and home prices continue to decline and State and Local governments are broke. Now, the Ben Bernak will tell you there is no inflation, nevermind the increased costs of just about everything. The Ben Bernak will tell you printing more money and giving secret loans is the way to continue to go. Obama and the Left will tell you this is all because of some single digit percentage difference in what the rich do or don't pay in taxes.

We are in a bad, bad spot. The whole stimulus ordreal panned out as well as Cheney saying the Iraqi's would toss roses at our troops.

Bottom line is, it isn't going to take much gas to set this fire.

petegz28
03-16-2011, 08:41 PM
Meh. Panicky nonsense.

I hope you are right and I am wrong. I called the recent bull market when many thought I was on crack. Now I am seeing a strong correction that could easily turn into another bear market easily. And given the lay of the land and what keeps coming out of D.C., we could very easily be facing what many said was "the other shoe to drop" back during the last bear market. That shoe never fell but many were looking for it. And that is usually how it goes, most economists I have listened too are usually right but wrong about the timing.

Until we start to see some tangible growth in jobs and some easing of commodity prices we are going to be in the hurt locker. And a weak $ (result of increased borrowing and printing of money) is not the medicine we need at the moment. If anything it will be the catalyst that knocks the other shoe off.

HonestChieffan
03-16-2011, 08:48 PM
Bury beans double wrapped and sealed in PVC, dont tell a soul where they are...Sugar, salt, ammo...all stores in sealed PVC.

Water filter/purification and storage will be key

The have nots will come to get what is yours, be prepared to defend at all costs.

petegz28
03-16-2011, 08:51 PM
Bury beans double wrapped and sealed in PVC, dont tell a soul where they are...Sugar, salt, ammo...all stores in sealed PVC.

Water filter/purification and storage will be key

The have nots will come to get what is yours, be prepared to defend at all costs.

This is what I am talking about. This "it could never happen" mentality is going to bite us in the ass sooner rather than later if we don't get shit in order.

HonestChieffan
03-16-2011, 09:07 PM
This is what I am talking about. This "it could never happen" mentality is going to bite us in the ass sooner rather than later if we don't get shit in order.

I suspect Im more prepared than many for day 1.

I just dont think we need to panic yet.

petegz28
03-16-2011, 09:15 PM
I suspect Im more prepared than many for day 1.

I just dont think we need to panic yet.

Dio we need to panic yet? No. Do we need to have our eyebrows raised? Yes. Are we closer to panic level than many think we are? Yes. We are broke, dude. B R O K E. Broke. Busted. No money. Zilch, nada, nothing. State are in debt across the board at unsustainable levels. The Fed Gov has no money to bailout the States. In 2009 our debt was at 60% of GDP. That was at $8 tril of debt. We are now at $14 tril debt. We are forecast to be around $15 tril GDP this year. We are literally at the brink of having more debt than this country is even worth. That is the same as being underwater on your home loan. That means if we sold off every ****ing thing that we could sell in this country we still could not pay all of our debt + interest.

That is called a breaking point.

banyon
03-16-2011, 09:31 PM
Difficult to tell right now if this is a correctional buying opportunity or "catch a falling knife".

That being said, I bought KUB (Kubota) on the theory that they were caught up in the sale of all Japanese equities when in fact they should have a massive influx of orders to help rebuild. Also bought MSFT at 24 looking oversold looking to sell back at 28.

Brock
03-16-2011, 10:09 PM
I suspect Im more prepared than many for day 1.

I just dont think we need to panic yet.

You were probably a real hoot around 2k.

HonestChieffan
03-17-2011, 06:59 AM
You were probably a real hoot around 2k.

Im a hoot all the time. Neo-hoots have to have an event.

eazyb81
03-17-2011, 07:37 AM
I hope you are right and I am wrong. I called the recent bull market when many thought I was on crack. Now I am seeing a strong correction that could easily turn into another bear market easily. And given the lay of the land and what keeps coming out of D.C., we could very easily be facing what many said was "the other shoe to drop" back during the last bear market. That shoe never fell but many were looking for it. And that is usually how it goes, most economists I have listened too are usually right but wrong about the timing.

Until we start to see some tangible growth in jobs and some easing of commodity prices we are going to be in the hurt locker. And a weak $ (result of increased borrowing and printing of money) is not the medicine we need at the moment. If anything it will be the catalyst that knocks the other shoe off.

Just like the secular bull market we've had the last year or so (who thought you were crazy for predicting it - everyone saw it coming), this market correction was expected, we just needed a catalyst for it. There has been chatter out there for awhile now that the continued surge in the S&P did not foot with muted job growth, but investors needed a spark to cover their positions and take profit off the table. State budgets are still a big overhang, but right now it is more headline risk than anything.

I don't think we are going back down, but there are enough core macro issues out there that will drive a slow and gradual improvement over the next five years, with short-term swings here and there. It is still a stockpicker's market because there are some screaming buys out there that have been pushed down unfairly, and they will outperform the bland overall market.

petegz28
03-17-2011, 01:32 PM
Just like the secular bull market we've had the last year or so (who thought you were crazy for predicting it - everyone saw it coming), this market correction was expected, we just needed a catalyst for it. There has been chatter out there for awhile now that the continued surge in the S&P did not foot with muted job growth, but investors needed a spark to cover their positions and take profit off the table. State budgets are still a big overhang, but right now it is more headline risk than anything.

I don't think we are going back down, but there are enough core macro issues out there that will drive a slow and gradual improvement over the next five years, with short-term swings here and there. It is still a stockpicker's market because there are some screaming buys out there that have been pushed down unfairly, and they will outperform the bland overall market.

I think in the DC elitist thread you can see where people were doubting my calls. Therefore I have to argue that not everyone saw it coming.

http://www.chiefsplanet.com/BB/showthread.php?t=224982&highlight=Official+bull+market

petegz28
03-17-2011, 01:41 PM
Just like the secular bull market we've had the last year or so (who thought you were crazy for predicting it - everyone saw it coming), this market correction was expected, we just needed a catalyst for it. There has been chatter out there for awhile now that the continued surge in the S&P did not foot with muted job growth, but investors needed a spark to cover their positions and take profit off the table. State budgets are still a big overhang, but right now it is more headline risk than anything.

I don't think we are going back down, but there are enough core macro issues out there that will drive a slow and gradual improvement over the next five years, with short-term swings here and there. It is still a stockpicker's market because there are some screaming buys out there that have been pushed down unfairly, and they will outperform the bland overall market.

6 months after I made the call this was you...

Wait, I thought Stewie promised the Dow would hit 5,000 in early/mid 2010?

Wait, I thought Stewie promised the Dow would hit 5,000 in early/mid 2010?

I expect the market will be range-bound at least through the November elections, but even after there's not a ton to be excited about on a macro level. However, like always, there are some great undervalued companies out there. Even without Hurd, I love HP right now. It's trading well below peers at approximately 8-9x '11 earnings.

The Dow was around 6500 when I made the call, it was around 9500 when you said the above and we have broken above 12000 since then.