PDA

View Full Version : Obama Libya could backfire


HonestChieffan
03-30-2011, 08:54 PM
Stories like this are what shakes confidence in anything we hear from Washington.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2011-03-30/al-qaedas-libya-pilgrimage/?om_rid=NIi-Df&om_mid=_BNk3fzB8Z3-Ubc

(Daily Beast) — As the battle for the future of Libya continues, the excitement is almost palpable among Libyan-born al Qaeda fighters and other Arabs hunkered down in Pakistan’s remote and lawless tribal area.

According to Afghan Taliban sources close to Osama bin Laden’s terrorist group, some of the 200 or so Libyans operating near the Afghan border may be on their way home to steer the anti-Gaddafi revolution in a more Islamist direction.

“We have heard a number of fighters have already departed from the tribal area,” says an Afghan commander who is linked to the powerful Haqqani network, a North Waziristan-based organization that shelters many al Qaeda fighters. Others may be on their way. “Libyans and Arabs seem to be getting ready for departure and are eager to go home and fight,” says the Afghan source. “I’ve heard that some fighters are saying goodbye and giving thanks with kind words to their (Pakistani) tribal friends who have been sheltering them.”

Since the anti-Gaddafi revolution began last month, al Qaeda — especially Libyan-born affiliates — have viewed the fighting as an opportunity to spread their radical Islamist ideology. Indeed, as one Afghan Taliban operative who helps facilitate the movement of al Qaeda militants between the tribal area and Pakistani cities told The Daily Beast earlier this month: “This rebellion is the fresh breeze they’ve been waiting years for. They realize that if they don’t use this opportunity, it could be the end of their chances to turn Libya toward a real Islamic state, as Afghanistan once was.”

Now, as the White House and NATO continue to debate the possible ramifications of arming the Libyan opposition, the Haqqani network-linked Afghan commander says Libyan al Qaeda affiliates seem to be more “enthusiastic” about the war against Gaddafi every day. And from what the Afghan Taliban commander has seen, there appears to be more than “flickers” of al Qaeda’s presence in Libya, the description given by NATO commander Admiral James Stavridis. According to the Afghan commander, al Qaeda fighters can’t believe their good luck that U.S. and NATO aircraft — the same forces that have dropped bombs on their heads in Afghanistan and Pakistan — are now raining down ordnance against Gaddafi.

Today, along the tribal border region, al Qaeda’s thirst for more immediate news has led even top leaders like Abu Yahya al-Libi, a Libyan who serves as the movement’s senior Islamist ideologue and bin Laden’s head of operations for Afghanistan, to become almost foolhardy. The Afghan commander says that Yahya and some of his countrymen have even risked visiting villagers’ houses that have satellite television dishes on the roof to watch the latest Western and Middle Eastern news feeds from Libya. Their movements in public areas could easily expose these high value targets to human and UAV surveillance, and a deadly drone strike. . . .

Whether Yahya himself will return to Libya remains to be seen, but speculation about what he’ll do is rife in the tribal area. “What Yahya will do is on the mind and in the words of everyone,” the Taliban commander adds. “But I think he is probably preparing for his next move, contacting mujahideen in Libya and watching the situation in Libya.” Earlier this month, he broke his public silence over the Libyan revolt, issuing a call to arms to his countrymen in a 30-minute video that was posted on al Qaeda-linked Internet sites. He urged Libyans to fight on and kill Gaddafi. “Now it is the turn of Gaddafi [to die] after he made the people of Libya suffer for more than 40 years,” he said. “Retreating will mean decades of harsher oppression and greater injustices than what you have endured.” He also called for the institution of Islamic law once an Arab nation has cast off its former, Western-supported rulers. Overthrowing these Western-backed Arab regimes, he added, was “a step to reach the goal of every Muslim, which is to make the word of Allah the highest.”

Returning to Libya, however, does not guarantee that Yahya or his fellow al Qaeda affiliates will have any success. The long, dangerous trip from Pakistan’s tribal areas can take weeks if not months. At least one Taliban source says Yahya made the trip two years ago and returned safely, although no one else seems able to confirm that story. And even if he or other al Qaeda Libyans manage to get home again, the Taliban facilitator says they know they’ll have a tough time influencing the largely pro-democracy uprising.

“They know they must tread cautiously, and not push too hard, for too much, too soon,” he says. Instead, he says, they expect to take a moderate line at first, while quietly trying to persuade rebel leaders that the preservation of Libyan sovereignty against Western “colonialists” depends on taking an anti-Israeli, anti-American line. Any move toward imposing Islamic sharia law, Yahya’s specialty, will have to come later. Still, Taliban sources say, if Yahya is successful in reaching rebel-held territory inside Libya, at least he’ll be able to operate with relative freedom, without worrying about Gaddafi’s secret police. In the meantime, the betting among the Taliban is that bin Laden may already have found his replacement in the tribal area. “Al Qaeda will not leave this place empty,” says the facilitator.

CoMoChief
03-30-2011, 10:33 PM
So how many here think Al Quaeda is CIA/Pentagon backed?

HonestChieffan
03-30-2011, 10:38 PM
So how many here think Al Quaeda is CIA/Pentagon backed?

http://static.electro-tech-online.com/imgcache/11026-tinfoil%20hat.jpg

Direckshun
03-30-2011, 10:47 PM
Wait, wait, wait...

Wait.

Are you suggesting that an ARMED CONFLICT between a ragtag group of impoverished rebels and an insane dictator could yeild NEGATIVE consequences?

Holy ****ing shit in a coal mine. You are a ****ing Christ of tactical knowledge.

Seriously, I bet your shit don't stink. You should try microwaving it and complimenting it with a nice Cabernet Blanc.

KC Dan
03-30-2011, 10:54 PM
The only way that Quadaffy loses this is his regime disenegrates or Coalition forces boots hit the ground fully armed. The rebels are not going to do this on their own with or without a No-Fly zone. No command structure, not enough resources, no supply lines, no training and no weapons. They are screwed unless we act.

We now are pretty sure that CIA boots are on the ground and probably special forces painting targets, it can't be long for actual "boots". I predict by May day.

But, Obama did say that NO American boots would hit the ground there. He should have said non-CIA/Special Forces boots.

btw, I don't want us there, never did

go bowe
03-31-2011, 12:28 AM
if there's troops, it'll be french and british troops mainly, with no zero zip nada americans on the ground...

the brits already have their sas and sbs guys on the ground...

HonestChieffan
03-31-2011, 07:49 AM
if there's troops, it'll be french and british troops mainly, with no zero zip nada americans on the ground...

the brits already have their sas and sbs guys on the ground...

At this point, it seems that the issue has rapidly changed from what the US set out to do assuming that would actually remove the storm troopers to a much more complex situation that was not where we wanted to go. The lack of a strategic objective and good information can lead to very bad decisions and worse end results.

In Libya it looks like the islamists as well as the major terror players have made a move to join the fight and be far more open in their efforts to take a lead role. That being known, the second major problem is not having a force of moderates we can support and who we can identify. In other words we dont know who we are supporting and with that, the end game becomes very unclear.

Escalation of the US efforts in supplying an unknown with arms and in having boots on the ground in the form of clandestine operations is a major increase in the tactics we started out involved with. And is a far cry from air support and a no fly zone.

The fluidity of the day to day situation is the bugaboo that could bite us in the old butt. Goofys troops have been way more effective than it seems the administration hoped and the "rebels" have proven to be far less effective. Any hope of a swift exit by Goofy is gone. And with it is any hope that this would be a fast in and out by Nato and the US.

The tribal nature of libya, the influx of radical elements returning from Afghanistan and other terror hot spots and the possibility that we could actually arm people with a seething hate for the US and the west makes this a bad deal gone worse.

We got into VietNam in a comparable manner in some respects...advisors, aid, weapons....and that proved to be a not so good process.

BucEyedPea
03-31-2011, 08:06 AM
T

But, Obama did say that NO American boots would hit the ground there. He should have said non-CIA/Special Forces boots.


CIA, as well as Britain's covert agents are on the ground in Libya.


http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503543_162-20049006-503543.html

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5j3X-nSqRrHVru0xxs4U0O-1bhLAA?docId=CNG.d2315ff3674c1d62caec4b00ef0b36e4.f1

BucEyedPea
03-31-2011, 08:07 AM
At this point, it seems that the issue has rapidly changed from what the US set out to do ...

That's to be expected...it's typical politician behavior.:banghead::banghead:

Dave Lane
03-31-2011, 03:03 PM
Thats great news :thumb: thanks for sharing

CIA, as well as Britain's covert agents are on the ground in Libya.


http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503543_162-20049006-503543.html

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5j3X-nSqRrHVru0xxs4U0O-1bhLAA?docId=CNG.d2315ff3674c1d62caec4b00ef0b36e4.f1

Chiefshrink
03-31-2011, 03:48 PM
This move in Libya is nothing more than saving energy for Europe and more importantly a re-election politcal move for 2012 in hopes to regain the "independents". If Gaddafi steps down the MSMM(Mainstream Marxist Media) will make Obama out to be Gen. Patton and if it fails and Gaddafi stays then NATO and Bush will get the blame. Count on it.

The MSMM would love nothing more than to make Obama look like a "kick ass" commander as they(MSMM) sit and wait on "pins and needles" hoping like hell that Gaddafi steps down.

Chiefshrink
03-31-2011, 03:49 PM
Obama quite frankly has never been out of campaign mode since being elected but now these next few weeks/months he will be in overdrive.

Otter
03-31-2011, 04:21 PM
Oh please!!! Something negative transpiring from getting involved in a middle east conflict! pffft!

We'll be in and out lickety-split and heroes to the world when it's over. And over quick it will be, you can take that to the bank.

Cave Johnson
04-01-2011, 01:45 PM
The only way that Quadaffy loses this is his regime disenegrates or Coalition forces boots hit the ground fully armed. The rebels are not going to do this on their own with or without a No-Fly zone. No command structure, not enough resources, no supply lines, no training and no weapons. They are screwed unless we act.

We now are pretty sure that CIA boots are on the ground and probably special forces painting targets, it can't be long for actual "boots". I predict by May day.

But, Obama did say that NO American boots would hit the ground there. He should have said non-CIA/Special Forces boots.

btw, I don't want us there, never did

Here's David Brooks (a conservative) on how Qaddafi is likely to be forced out. Good read, even if it's from the gawd dammed New York Times.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/01/opinion/01brooks.html?_r=2&hp

Chiefshrink
04-01-2011, 03:55 PM
Here's David Brooks (a conservative) on how Qaddafi is likely to be forced out. Good read, even if it's from the gawd dammed New York Times.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/04/01/opinion/01brooks.html?_r=2&hp

David Brooks a conservative? PLEEEEEEEEEEEEEASE:rolleyes:
He is a RINO at best:thumb:

Pitt Gorilla
04-01-2011, 11:08 PM
I'm pretty sure that psycho Obama ordered a personal hit on Qaddafi but the Chiefs of Staff blocked it at a very high brass level. But I agree, we're in a lot of trouble. Where is Dwight when we need him?LOL.

HonestChieffan
04-02-2011, 08:05 AM
http://www.redstate.com/absentee/files/2011/03/libya-iraq_01.jpg


The comparison is interesting...http://www.redstate.com/absentee/2011/04/01/iraq-vs-libya-a-graphic-interpretation/

Rausch
04-02-2011, 11:14 AM
What happens when the ME forms a Union similar to the EU?


I know the flavors of Islam there are like baskin ****ing robbins but uniting to push out the Euro/American influence is overwhelming.

Once the peaceful students win the angry jihadists will just push them aside with Iranian funding/support...

go bowe
04-02-2011, 12:24 PM
What happens when the ME forms a Union similar to the EU?


I know the flavors of Islam there are like baskin ****ing robbins but uniting to push out the Euro/American influence is overwhelming.

Once the peaceful students win the angry jihadists will just push them aside with Iranian funding/support...that's certainly possible but in many of these countries the pro-democracy forces will not accept another form of dictatorship after just ridding themselves of dictatorships...

in egypt, the army is still a powerful force militarily and economically...

they're not likely to let islamists take over and lose all their wealth and influence...

and as a democracy, they will be able to support other nascent democracies and act as a counterweight to iran's influence in the region...

i'm actually quite optimistic about the developments in the me and north africa...

Rausch
04-02-2011, 02:03 PM
in egypt, the army is still a powerful force militarily and economically...

they're not likely to let islamists take over and lose all their wealth and influence...

That's EXACTLY who's pushing to take over, and in time, WILL take over.


i'm actually quite optimistic about the developments in the me and north africa...

You're an idiot then...