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View Full Version : NFL Draft The Perpetual Second Round Pick


Amnorix
04-29-2011, 08:48 AM
So here is a not uncommon thought written by a local sportswriter here, but it could reflect 90% of Patriots Nation, I'm sure:


Cutting past a little overreaction, here’s the issue: If Belichick is going to maneuver to acquire an additional first-round pick, why doesn’t he ever use both?

Why don't people understand that if you take a late first and trade it for a second this year and another first next year, then you have GAINED a pick. You had one pick before, and now you have two.

And if you do that EVERY SINGLE YEAR WITHOUT FAIL, then for absolutely no additional investment, you have an extra second round pick IN PERPETUITY, FOREVAH AND EVAH AND EVAH.

These morons act like we're trading a 1st this year for a 1st next year, and keep rolling the ball forward and never using the pick, ignoring that we GET a second round pick that we DO use, or trade for value, or whatever.

Anyway, not that you guys care, but it's an excellent strategy, but nobody gets it. Why?

patteeu
04-29-2011, 08:50 AM
Why don't people understand that if you take a late first and trade it for a second this year and another first next year, then you have GAINED a pick. You had one pick before, and now you have two.

Could you walk me through the math on that?

Jaric
04-29-2011, 08:52 AM
Could you walk me through the math on that?

Patriots + anything they do = teh awesome.

sedated
04-29-2011, 08:53 AM
what does this have to do with the Chiefs?

Amnorix
04-29-2011, 08:57 AM
what does this have to do with the Chiefs?

Wait, what? This is a CHIEFS board...?

Brock
04-29-2011, 08:59 AM
I'm not really too impressed with what Belichick does with the wealth of picks he seems to have every year.

Dave Lane
04-29-2011, 09:03 AM
Well I for one love the strategy... I'm totally fine with Baldwin but if we could have dropped to 38 for a 2nd and a first next year I would have jizzed.

JD10367
04-29-2011, 09:07 AM
Could you walk me through the math on that?

It was a 28. They now get a 2nd, and next year's 1 (which, at worst, is a 32 and might be much higher than 28).

JD10367
04-29-2011, 09:07 AM
Patriots + anything they do = teh awesome.

About time you realized it, Peytonlover. :p

Amnorix
04-29-2011, 09:09 AM
I'm not really too impressed with what Belichick does with the wealth of picks he seems to have every year.


He tends to go for value -- alot of picks in the 2nd and 3rd rounds -- rather than moving up to get a stud. Moving back and letting GB get Matthews is the only really obvious miss in this process.

Last year in the 2nd round he got a stud TE in Gronk after moving back in the 1st and then getting Devin McCourty. He also took our starting MLB, who seems to be in the good-not-great realm, and a stud 4th round TE who fell because he had some pot issues and was a bit raw. No question it was an absolutely awesome draft.

No question that some drafts sucked, such as 2006. But overall the Pats are making MORE picks in rounds 1-3 than any other team, and over time, that is going to be an advantage as long as his picks pan out average.

In other words, all else being equal, more picks early translates to better players in the long run. That's the philosophy, and I agree 100%. Everyone strikes out sometimes, but if you have more at-bats than the next guy...

Cave Johnson
04-29-2011, 09:22 AM
Colin Cowherd was bitching this morning about BB. That's all I need to know it's a good strategy.

notorious
04-29-2011, 09:25 AM
It saves them 1st round money and allows them to get a lot of players that contribute.

They can take that extra money and keep their vets or spend on a FA they really like.

JD10367
04-29-2011, 09:39 AM
No question that some drafts sucked, such as 2006. But overall the Pats are making MORE picks in rounds 1-3 than any other team, and over time, that is going to be an advantage as long as his picks pan out average.

In other words, all else being equal, more picks early translates to better players in the long run. That's the philosophy, and I agree 100%. Everyone strikes out sometimes, but if you have more at-bats than the next guy...

This. It's akin to someone who uses their business savvy to make a shitload of money, which they then spend occasionally wisely and occasionally stupidly. You can blast the guy for spending his money stupidly, but you can't deny how he made it. I'd rather have too many picks than too few. Throw enough shit at the wall, some of it will stick.

It saves them 1st round money and allows them to get a lot of players that contribute.

They can take that extra money and keep their vets or spend on a FA they really like.

And this. Belichick hates spending first-round money, as if he's cracking open his own wallet, LOL. 1st round = expensive boom-or-bust "stars". 2nd round and after = where you build your team.

Amnorix
04-29-2011, 09:53 AM
This. It's akin to someone who uses their business savvy to make a shitload of money, which they then spend occasionally wisely and occasionally stupidly. You can blast the guy for spending his money stupidly, but you can't deny how he made it. I'd rather have too many picks than too few. Throw enough shit at the wall, some of it will stick.


Also note that he's consistently playing with house money. The 17 was house money, but he used that one, then takes his regular pick and flips it into a 2 this year and a 1 next year, which are now BOTH house money, effectively.

eazyb81
04-29-2011, 09:59 AM
Also note that he's consistently playing with house money. The 17 was house money, but he used that one, then takes his regular pick and flips it into a 2 this year and a 1 next year, which are now BOTH house money, effectively.

It's not like he's expanding his "house money" though; in the example, the 1st next year is essentially equivalent to the 2nd this year and 1st next year. The pie stays the same size in terms of overall value.

-King-
04-29-2011, 10:01 AM
So does that equal to 2 or 288?

Molitoth
04-29-2011, 10:30 AM
Bill is the best. The Patriots are the team to model; proven.

Brock
04-29-2011, 10:42 AM
Bill is the best. The Patriots are the team to model; proven.

Everybody should fall ass backwards into one of the greatest QBs ever.

JD10367
04-29-2011, 10:44 AM
It's not like he's expanding his "house money" though; in the example, the 1st next year is essentially equivalent to the 2nd this year and 1st next year. The pie stays the same size in terms of overall value.

How so?

Think of it in terms of one draft. If someone said to you, "I'll take your #28 first-rounder and in exchange I'll give you MY first-rounder--which could be anywhere--and, in addition, a second-rounder".

The ABSOLUTE WORST that 1st will be is 32. Meaning, to drop four spots in the 1st, the Pats picked up a 2nd. But there's a very good chance it will be higher than a 28... in which case, when compared to this season, the Pats improved their spot and got a free second.

Can you consider each draft equally? No. Next year's will obviously have different players and be different depth-wise. But apparently Belichick decided that whoever he could take with 28 he could take with 33. So why not get next year's? If the Saints shit the bed, that could be a top-10 pick.

eazyb81
04-29-2011, 10:56 AM
How so?

Think of it in terms of one draft. If someone said to you, "I'll take your #28 first-rounder and in exchange I'll give you MY first-rounder--which could be anywhere--and, in addition, a second-rounder".

The ABSOLUTE WORST that 1st will be is 32. Meaning, to drop four spots in the 1st, the Pats picked up a 2nd. But there's a very good chance it will be higher than a 28... in which case, when compared to this season, the Pats improved their spot and got a free second.

You can't ignore the value of delaying a pick for another year though. In a vacuum, the #28 pick this year is worth more than the #28 pick next year. It varies by personal opinion and situation how much the next year's pick has to improve to be equal to this year's pick though.