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View Full Version : Economics Weekly Claims Soar as Job Market Recovery Turns Sour


petegz28
05-05-2011, 07:12 AM
http://www.cnbc.com/id/42912580

Amnorix
05-05-2011, 07:21 AM
Surprising. I have been hearing that the private sector workforce is stretched about as thin as it can go, with companies mostly maxing out their workforce's productivity capability. To do anything more, they're going to have little choice but to hire.

Unfortunately, the soft job market and the ongoing weakness in real estate (which is no doubt going to be protracted) is resulting in the economy just sliding along at break-even. I had expected to see (personally) more transactional activity than I have been, but that hasn't happened either.

petegz28
05-05-2011, 07:24 AM
Surprising. I have been hearing that the private sector workforce is stretched about as thin as it can go, with companies mostly maxing out their workforce's productivity capability. To do anything more, they're going to have little choice but to hire.

Unfortunately, the soft job market and the ongoing weakness in real estate (which is no doubt going to be protracted) is resulting in the economy just sliding along at break-even. I had expected to see (personally) more transactional activity than I have been, but that hasn't happened either.

The Fed is going to have to pick its poison, higher interest rates or higher costs of goods.

The increased costs of goods is going to really start hitting a company's bottom line as people are cutting back even more now with higher food and gas costs.

If the Fed would get off their weak $ mantra things would be a lot better. I think at this point the country can deal with higher interest rates easier than they can higher food and energy costs.

jiveturkey
05-05-2011, 07:28 AM
I'm currently recruiting for a fortune 500 company and they are constantly making changes to their workforce in the form of "optimization". This has lead to a huge increase in turnover because American's (most) don't want to work like the Japanese.

So now the big push is to reduce turnover. When your workforce is balancing on a knife blade they're pushed much further when 10% of their team leaves every month. The opening causes more work for those that stay. The training costs money and increases the work load and both of those lead to more people leaving. It trickles all the way up to Sr Management.

A vicious circle. The stock is doing quite well though.

phisherman
05-05-2011, 07:29 AM
i'll take the higher interest rates.

Saul Good
05-05-2011, 07:38 AM
I would prefer higher interest rates, but I've got 4.5% on my house for the next 29 years and have. No plans to move. I'm not excited about the idea of my savings being inflated away, but I don't see a viable alternative from a policy standpoint.

LOCOChief
05-05-2011, 07:45 AM
Higher rates are like higher gas prices. Gas prices effect you more than just at the pump, higher rates effect more than just your monthly mort pymnt.

just sayin

Amnorix
05-05-2011, 08:00 AM
The Fed is going to have to pick its poison, higher interest rates or higher costs of goods.

The increased costs of goods is going to really start hitting a company's bottom line as people are cutting back even more now with higher food and gas costs.

If the Fed would get off their weak $ mantra things would be a lot better. I think at this point the country can deal with higher interest rates easier than they can higher food and energy costs.

People alot smarter than both of us, who make alot mroe than both of us, do nothing all day but decide these kinds of things.

Ballsy of you to know what's better than a group of the best economists in the country...

(nobody liked Volcker when he choked the shit out of the economy to get things right again either)

Amnorix
05-05-2011, 08:01 AM
I would prefer higher interest rates, but I've got 4.5% on my house for the next 29 years and have. No plans to move. I'm not excited about the idea of my savings being inflated away, but I don't see a viable alternative from a policy standpoint.


If your debt on the house is higher than your savings, then inflation is a good thing for you. It might be inflating away your savings, but it's also effectively inflating away your debt.

Saul Good
05-05-2011, 08:11 AM
If your debt on the house is higher than your savings, then inflation is a good thing for you. It might be inflating away your savings, but it's also effectively inflating away your debt.

That's not entirely true because it doesn't take my income into account. Unless my income keeps pace with inflation (plus whatever my income increases would have been), that must also be taken into account as a negative as well.

JimBaker48.8
05-05-2011, 08:15 AM
i'll take the higher interest rates.
But no doubt that would torpedo any hope of a residential Real Estate recovery, not that there's much optimism about that anyway.

petegz28
05-05-2011, 08:37 AM
People alot smarter than both of us, who make alot mroe than both of us, do nothing all day but decide these kinds of things.

Ballsy of you to know what's better than a group of the best economists in the country...

(nobody liked Volcker when he choked the shit out of the economy to get things right again either)

Yeah it is and I am right. People aren't making dick on their savings, particularly fixed income folks but yet they are paying higher prices for gas and food. It's pretty ****ing simple. The Fed knows WTF it is doing..it is bleeding this country dry with the overprinting of money and unnaturally low interest rates leaving anyone who wants to make any kind of interest on their money to go into stocks or riskier investments where they will inevitbley burst the bubble to get their big payoff.

And for the record, a lot of the economists I have heard over the last so many years, including The Ben Bernank, have been dead wrong or Johny Come Lately's.

petegz28
05-05-2011, 08:38 AM
But no doubt that would torpedo any hope of a residential Real Estate recovery, not that there's much optimism about that anyway.

Actually it wouldn't torpedo it at all. It might mean you have to buy a $250k house instead of a $300k house. A it will keep the bad credit people out of the market which is what caused a lot of this in the first place.

Amnorix
05-05-2011, 08:46 AM
That's not entirely true because it doesn't take my income into account. Unless my income keeps pace with inflation (plus whatever my income increases would have been), that must also be taken into account as a negative as well.

Correct. I was assuming that income keeps pace with inflation, which is usually (but certainly not always) the case.

The people that get killed in an inflationary environment (but not hyperinflation, fo course, when everyone gets killed) are those living on fixed incomes.

Amnorix
05-05-2011, 08:48 AM
Actually it wouldn't torpedo it at all. It might mean you have to buy a $250k house instead of a $300k house. A it will keep the bad credit people out of the market which is what caused a lot of this in the first place.

I'd stick to your day job. Whatever it is, I'm sure it's not Ph.D in economics.

petegz28
05-05-2011, 08:48 AM
Correct. I was assuming that income keeps pace with inflation, which is usually (but certainly not always) the case.

The people that get killed in an inflationary environment (but not hyperinflation, fo course, when everyone gets killed) are those living on fixed incomes.

I hate to tell you but the fixed income people are getting killed now because of low interest rates. Talk to anyone who is or better yet has been retired for some time and they will tell you how they can no longer afford to put their money in CD's, Money Market or Savings accounts because they pay dick. Meanwhile the cost of everything they need like, oh, I don't know, food and energy, are going through the roof. All because of our super low $.

Otter
05-05-2011, 09:07 AM
This has lead to a huge increase in turnover because American's (most) don't want to work like the Japanese.

Can you elaborate on what you mean by this statement?

petegz28
05-05-2011, 09:16 AM
Can you elaborate on what you mean by this statement?

15 hours a day?

KC Dan
05-05-2011, 09:19 AM
Can you elaborate on what you mean by this statement?I can since I work for a division of Hitachi. He is absolutely correct! We have maybe and I mean maybe 5% of U.S. based employees that are willing to work like dogs to get jobs done. The Japanese engineers with us always do it, do not question it and fully expect to work ungodly hours and jobs. It is what it is.

jiveturkey
05-05-2011, 01:14 PM
15 hours a day?You an KC Dan are both right.

Work is pretty much all they do.

Bewbies
05-05-2011, 01:55 PM
A double dip sure isn't the result "anyone" expected with the policies being enacted by our gov't....

FD
05-05-2011, 02:24 PM
This place is just too funny some times. A headline about the continued weakness in the jobs market followed a bunch of posters advocating CONTRACTIONARY monetary policy by the Fed, including the same person who posted the article.

Chocolate Hog
05-05-2011, 02:36 PM
I'm sure now we'll get to see the pics of Bin Laden.

vailpass
05-05-2011, 02:49 PM
A double dip sure isn't the result "anyone" expected with the policies being enacted by our gov't....

LMAO

RedNeckRaider
05-05-2011, 03:36 PM
A double dip sure isn't the result "anyone" expected that voted for Barry

FYP~

Chocolate Hog
05-05-2011, 03:37 PM
Remember when Obama said if we spend a couple trillion unemployment wouldn't go above 8%?

JimBaker48.8
05-06-2011, 05:55 AM
Todays the big number - April jobs. What do you have for the over/under on
185 K ?

banyon
05-06-2011, 07:50 AM
Surprising. I have been hearing that the private sector workforce is stretched about as thin as it can go, with companies mostly maxing out their workforce's productivity capability. To do anything more, they're going to have little choice but to hire.

Unfortunately, the soft job market and the ongoing weakness in real estate (which is no doubt going to be protracted) is resulting in the economy just sliding along at break-even. I had expected to see (personally) more transactional activity than I have been, but that hasn't happened either.

Most of the things I've read have said that public sector layoffs are a much larger percentage of the new claims now due to budgetary cutbacks et al.

blaise
05-06-2011, 08:05 AM
I wonder how many of the laid off public sector employees are employees that were being touted as "jobs created" a year ago.

banyon
05-06-2011, 08:13 AM
I wonder how many of the laid off public sector employees are employees that were being touted as "jobs created" a year ago.

I believe many of them could be census workers, who would no doubt fit those criteria.

FD
05-06-2011, 09:06 AM
Todays the big number - April jobs. What do you have for the over/under on
185 K ?

244K! Wow, a great, great jobs number today, against all odds.

Chief Henry
05-06-2011, 09:13 AM
FYP~



yup

Bewbies
05-06-2011, 09:26 AM
244K! Wow, a great, great jobs number today, against all odds.

Is this sarcasm?

RedNeckRaider
05-06-2011, 09:29 AM
I wonder how many of the laid off public sector employees are employees that were being touted as "jobs created" a year ago.

:hmmm:

FD
05-06-2011, 09:29 AM
Is this sarcasm?

No, everyone was expecting a really bad jobs report. See the post I'm quoting setting the O/U at 185k. The report today was surprising and really good news.

Bewbies
05-06-2011, 09:30 AM
:hmmm:

This year they'll be referred to as jobs saved. LMAO

Bewbies
05-06-2011, 09:32 AM
No, everyone was expecting a really bad jobs report. See the post I'm quoting setting the O/U at 185k. The report today was surprising and really good news.

We're double dipping right now pretty much everywhere, I don't see how this can be spun as good news.

The numbers will be revised down (always are), and McDonald's was a HUGE chunk of that gain.....

FD
05-06-2011, 09:37 AM
We're double dipping right now pretty much everywhere, I don't see how this can be spun as good news.

The numbers will be revised down (always are), and McDonald's was a HUGE chunk of that gain.....

Actually in this same release past months numbers were revised up.

What indicators do you see that are "double dipping"? Growth in almost all indicators and sectors is decent if not spectacular.

mlyonsd
05-06-2011, 09:38 AM
50k McDonalds alone! Go Ronald! You can never have enough burger flippers.

KC Dan
05-06-2011, 10:13 AM
Most of the things I've read have said that public sector layoffs are a much larger percentage of the new claims now due to budgetary cutbacks et al.
Good !

vailpass
05-06-2011, 10:17 AM
244K! Wow, a great, great jobs number today, against all odds.

244k of what?

ROYC75
05-06-2011, 10:20 AM
We're double dipping right now pretty much everywhere, I don't see how this can be spun as good news.

The numbers will be revised down (always are), and McDonald's was a HUGE chunk of that gain.....

Agreed, I called this last year. That double dip is not no ice cream cone either.

FD
05-06-2011, 10:21 AM
244k of what?

Total jobs added. 268,000 private sector.

vailpass
05-06-2011, 10:23 AM
Total jobs added. 268,000 private sector.

Do you have a link to the report you are quoting?
Any break down as to what type of "jobs" those are and the pay scale? Service industry?

FD
05-06-2011, 10:29 AM
U.S. Economy Adds Jobs, but Unemployment Rate Rises

By LUCA DI LEO And JEFF BATER


WASHINGTON—U.S. companies added more jobs than expected in April, but the unemployment rate rose for the first time in five months and the economy's recent slowdown is likely to keep a lid on gains.

Nonfarm payrolls rose by 244,000 last month as the private sector posted the strongest employment gain in five years, the Labor Department said Friday in its survey of employers. The March data were revised upward to show an increase of 221,000 jobs, from a previous estimated gain of 216,000.

A Historical View

However, the unemployment rate—which is obtained from a separate household survey—rose to 9.0% last month from 8.8% in March. It was the first increase in the jobless rate since November, when it hit 9.8%.

The mixed data weren't what analysts expected. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires had forecast payrolls would rise by 185,000 and that the jobless rate would remain unchanged at 8.8%.

Even though the economy started growing almost two years ago, the pace has been too slow to make up for ground lost during the recession of 2008 and the first half of 2009. The economy has added some 1.5 million jobs over the past year, but there are still seven million fewer jobs than the U.S. had before the downturn. A slowdown in growth in the first quarter is expected to keep companies from ramping up hiring in future months.

Friday's report showed private-sector employers, which account for about 70% of the work force, added 268,000 jobs in April, the biggest rise since February 2006. In March, employment in the private sector rose by 231,000.

The jobs breakdown from the employers survey showed continued gains in manufacturing, mining and the service sector. Manufacturing added 29,000 jobs after a gain of 22,000 in March. In the services sector, the biggest increases were in retail trade and professional and business services, as well as education and health. Employment in the battered construction sector posted another meager gain, and the housing sector remains a drag on the economy.

Government employment fell by 24,000, mainly because of declines in state and local governments, which are struggling to close their budget gaps.

Since the first-quarter slowdown, brought about by higher oil prices that hurt consumer spending and raised business costs, there have been more signs over the past month that the economy may be losing steam. The number of Americans filing new claims for jobless benefits rose sharply, hitting the highest level since last summer in the last week of April. The services sector saw a steep decline in activity and a similar slowing in jobs growth.

The Federal Reserve last week kept its credit tap wide open to boost the economy and jobs, a policy that has been criticized for stoking inflation. Chairman Ben Bernanke believes the rise in commodity prices is likely to prove temporary and said the Fed will be looking "very closely" at the labor market to decide when to raise interest rates from close to zero.

A broader measure of the unemployment rate, which includes people who stopped looking for work and those settling for part-time jobs, rose to 15.9% in April from 15.7% the previous month.

In another sign of the challenges still faced by the labor market, the report showed 43.4% of unemployed Americans, or nearly six million people, were out of work for more than six months in April. The longer someone is without a job, the harder it is to find work.

Americans' incomes, which are crucial to fuel the spending needed to boost the economy, remained subdued. Average hourly earnings of all employees rose just $0.03 to $22.95. Over the past year, earnings have increased by only 1.9%. Higher prices for gasoline and groceries are squeezing consumer spending.

Meanwhile, the average workweek for all employees on private payrolls was unchanged at 34.3 hours in April.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748703992704576306843829385166.html?mod=WSJ_hp_LEFTTopStories

vailpass
05-06-2011, 10:32 AM
Thanks for posting FD.
From what I read unemployment is up again, we are still 5.5 MILLION jobs less than we were in 2008. Jobs added are low paying. The economy is "losing steam". Great news.

FD
05-06-2011, 10:41 AM
Thanks for posting FD.
From what I read unemployment is up again, we are still 5.5 MILLION jobs less than we were in 2008. Jobs added are low paying. The economy is "losing steam". Great news.

Eh, nobody is claiming the economy is going great, but good news is good news.

ROYC75
05-06-2011, 10:43 AM
Eh, nobody is claiming the economy is going great, but good news is good news.

It really isn't, " Good News " if you can look far enough ahead for the crash that's coming.

Brock
05-06-2011, 10:45 AM
It really isn't, " Good News " if you can look far enough ahead for the crash that's coming.

DOOM! GLOOM! DISASTER! IS THAT ASKING TOO MUCH????

vailpass
05-06-2011, 10:47 AM
Eh, nobody is claiming the economy is going great, but good news is good news.

I admire your optimism.

ClevelandBronco
05-06-2011, 10:47 AM
Eh, nobody is claiming the economy is going great, but good news is good news.

Lasagna is lasagna. A 1972 Ford Pinto is a 1972 Ford Pinto. Shit is shit. Shinola is Shinola. Good news is good news. Bad news is bad news.

If you think that anything you posted above is good news, I'd say that your ability to discern between shit and Shinola is questionable.

blaise
05-06-2011, 10:50 AM
Obama is saving the world.

FD
05-06-2011, 10:51 AM
Lasagna is lasagna. A 1972 Ford Pinto is a 1972 Ford Pinto. Shit is shit. Shinola is Shinola. Good news is good news. Bad news is bad news.

If you think that anything you posted above is good news, I'd say that your ability to discern between shit and shinola is questionable.

You really don't think its good news that the private sector added 268,000 jobs last month? That this number is over a third higher than what economists were forecasting?

ClevelandBronco
05-06-2011, 10:52 AM
You really don't think its good news that the private sector added 268,000 jobs last month? That this number is over a third higher than what economists were forecasting?

I really don't.

Saul Good
05-06-2011, 11:16 AM
I do, especially the continued increase in manufacturing.

vailpass
05-06-2011, 11:25 AM
I do, especially the continued increase in manufacturing.

That depends. For example a wafer fab plant here in AZ has gone to next gen automation where they are replacing around 60 engineers, all of whom earn 90-100k, with automation.
The people they are hiring to maintain the machinery are classified as manufacturing employees and will be earning 40-50k.

To me even though that is a gain in manufacturing jobs it is a net loss in overall viable employment.

KC Dan
05-06-2011, 11:31 AM
That depends. For example a wafer fab plant here in AZ has gone to next gen automation where they are replacing around 60 engineers, all of whom earn 90-100k, with automation.
The people they are hiring to maintain the machinery are classified as manufacturing employees and will be earning 40-50k.

To me even though that is a gain in manufacturing jobs it is a net loss in overall viable employment.I continue to work in that fab on and off over the years as I now have permanent employees working there. We work with the Automation folks all the time. They don't deserve $50k, they're worthless. Friggin' twits always blame our machine for hand-off/comm problems and 99.9999999% of the time after spending hours/days proving it is not our machine, they finally get off their azz and send someone to check and eventually fix their problem.

ROYC75
05-06-2011, 11:34 AM
I do, especially the continued increase in manufacturing.

It's seasonal work, constuction workers, field pickers, etc.

ClevelandBronco
05-06-2011, 12:30 PM
It's seasonal work, constuction workers, field pickers, etc.

And don't forget the nationwide McDonald's hiring event. But, hey, good news is good news.

Brock
05-06-2011, 12:34 PM
It's seasonal work, constuction workers, field pickers, etc.

I don't think you understand what "manufacturing" means.

ClevelandBronco
05-06-2011, 12:41 PM
Let's see you manufacture a Big Mac, Chuy.

Pitt Gorilla
05-06-2011, 12:43 PM
I don't think you understand what "manufacturing" means.LMAO

vailpass
05-06-2011, 01:56 PM
I continue to work in that fab on and off over the years as I now have permanent employees working there. We work with the Automation folks all the time. They don't deserve $50k, they're worthless. Friggin' twits always blame our machine for hand-off/comm problems and 99.9999999% of the time after spending hours/days proving it is not our machine, they finally get off their azz and send someone to check and eventually fix their problem.

Interesting you know what/where I['m talking aoubt.
LMAO at "Friggin' twits always blame our machine for hand-off/comm problems and 99.9999999% of the time after spending hours/days proving it is not our machine..."

vailpass
05-06-2011, 01:57 PM
I don't think you understand what "manufacturing" means.

Question: anyone know if there is an official description as to what specific types of jobs make up the "Manufacturing" category and the other job categories listed in the official employment report?

ClevelandBronco
05-06-2011, 02:02 PM
Question: anyone know if there is an official description as to what specific types of jobs make up the "Manufacturing" category and the other job categories listed in the official employment report?

Bureau of Labor Statistics says:

http://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag31-33.htm#workforce

About the Manufacturing sector

The manufacturing sector is part of the goods-producing industries supersector group.

The Manufacturing sector comprises establishments engaged in the mechanical, physical, or chemical transformation of materials, substances, or components into new products.

Establishments in the Manufacturing sector are often described as plants, factories, or mills and characteristically use power-driven machines and materials-handling equipment. However, establishments that transform materials or substances into new products by hand or in the worker's home and those engaged in selling to the general public products made on the same premises from which they are sold, such as bakeries, candy stores, and custom tailors, may also be included in this sector. Manufacturing establishments may process materials or may contract with other establishments to process their materials for them. Both types of establishments are included in manufacturing.

North American Industry Classification System


The manufacturing sector consists of these subsectors:

Food Manufacturing: NAICS 311
Beverage and Tobacco Product Manufacturing: NAICS 312
Textile Mills: NAICS 313
Textile Product Mills: NAICS 314
Apparel Manufacturing: NAICS 315
Leather and Allied Product Manufacturing: NAICS 316
Wood Product Manufacturing: NAICS 321
Paper Manufacturing: NAICS 322
Printing and Related Support Activities: NAICS 323
Petroleum and Coal Products Manufacturing: NAICS 324
Chemical Manufacturing: NAICS 325
Plastics and Rubber Products Manufacturing: NAICS 326
Nonmetallic Mineral Product Manufacturing: NAICS 327
Primary Metal Manufacturing: NAICS 331
Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing: NAICS 332
Machinery Manufacturing: NAICS 333
Computer and Electronic Product Manufacturing: NAICS 334
Electrical Equipment, Appliance, and Component Manufacturing: NAICS 335
Transportation Equipment Manufacturing: NAICS 336
Furniture and Related Product Manufacturing: NAICS 337
Miscellaneous Manufacturing: NAICS 339

vailpass
05-06-2011, 02:05 PM
Bureau of Labor Statistics says:

http://www.bls.gov/iag/tgs/iag31-33.htm#workforce



Nice work, thanks CB.:thumb:

Cave Johnson
05-06-2011, 03:38 PM
You really don't think its good news that the private sector added 268,000 jobs last month? That this number is over a third higher than what economists were forecasting?

The fact that we just had the best month adding jobs in the last 5 years is meaningless.

The Obama financial meltdown is JUST AROUND THE CORNER!!1!

vailpass
05-06-2011, 04:01 PM
The fact that we just had the best month adding jobs in the last 5 years is meaningless.

The Obama financial meltdown is JUST AROUND THE CORNER!!1!

*Down 5.5 MILLION jobs since '08
*Those jobs you are so happy to see added are mainly McJobs in the food, service and retail sectors

People don't like having sunshine blown up their tailpipes.

FD
05-06-2011, 04:43 PM
*Those jobs you are so happy to see added are mainly McJobs in the food, service and retail sectors


What makes you say that?

vailpass
05-06-2011, 05:30 PM
What makes you say that?

From the article you posted:

"The jobs breakdown from the employers survey showed continued gains in manufacturing, mining and the service sector. Manufacturing added 29,000 jobs after a gain of 22,000 in March. In the services sector, the biggest increases were in retail trade and professional and business services, as well as education and health. Employment in the battered construction sector posted another meager gain, and the housing sector remains a drag on the economy."

of the 244k jobs only 29k were mfg., even less were in construction, some in mining, the bulk of the remaining 200+k jobs were service sector. Service sector=low paying jobs=McJobs.

I'm guesstimating, dont need anyone picking nits on the numbers.

The Mad Crapper
05-17-2011, 09:04 AM
http://spectator.org/archives/2011/02/16/good-morning-suckers/1

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http://www.thenewsurvivalist.com/img/ObamaDollarFull.gif

http://thepeoplescube.com/images/GrievanceReport_3.gif

http://mallardclothing.com/poundit/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/obama-steve.jpg