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View Full Version : Elections Winning the house has become more difficult for the Dems


alnorth
06-29-2011, 11:14 AM
Redistricting Makes Taking Back the House Difficult for Dems (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2011/06/29/redistricting_makes_taking_back_the_house_difficult_for_dems_110397.html)

Interesting article today, that makes a lot of sense.

I think the House is in play, but that the Democrats' road back to the majority is a steeper climb than many analysts apparently believe. There are a lot of reasons for this, but the number one reason has been receiving surprisingly little play: Democrats are getting their clocks cleaned in the 2012 redistricting.

The dems picked a terrible time to get utterly wiped out in the governor's mansions and state legislatures. They will be able to play some games in Illinois, but it wont be enough to offset GOP redistricting shenanigans elsewhere. The dems also lost control of California's districts to an independent commission, so they won't gain an advantage there, either. (2 years after a census the CA dems finally get the governor and legislature for the first time in forever, right when the voters pass an independent redistricting proposition)

Republican governors and state legislatures across the country have been combining "pretty safe" Dem districts to create more ultra-safe dark-blue districts, and breaking up ultra-safe dark-red districts into more "pretty safe" GOP districts. (You dont want lots of ultra-safe seats. A house election won by 30 points means a lot of your voters are wasted to clobber the other party in that district) They have been careful not to get too greedy by spreading the GOP votes too thin in an attempt to grab huge GOP majorities, instead they have been playing some solid defense to make it much tougher for the Dems to get the house over the course of the next decade.

By the 2012 election, the GOP could barely lose the popular vote and still hang on to the house.