PDA

View Full Version : Elections Janice Hahn vs Craig Huey Game Thread (7/12)


alnorth
07-12-2011, 08:42 PM
Figured I'd throw this up now, since it may or may not be big national news tomorrow.

GOP trying for upset in solidly Democratic congressional district (http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2011/07/12/gop-trying-for-upset-in-solidly-democratic-congressional-district/)

“We’re fighting hard in that race,” House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi told the Post Wednesday. “It’s not as easy a race, as overwhelming a race and Democratic seat as people like to think it is.”

And add in the obligatory-in-any-close-nasty-race:

Vote-suppression complaints filed in testy congressional election (http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/california-politics/2011/07/vote-suppression-complaints-filed-in-testy-congressional-election.html)

The 36th congressional district in CA is fairly dark blue with a ~18% registration advantage for the Dems. It has been represented by a Democrat (currently Jane Harman) forever, and she won with about 2/3 of the vote last year in the Dem wipeout. When her party lost the house, Harman threw a hissy-fit by resigning in February, right after she won, to go become a lobbyist or work for a think-tank or something (its no fun to be a rep for the minority party).

The special election to re-fill that seat is today, and it couldn't come at a worse time for the Dems (dead in the middle of summer, no one but the die-hards care), the local GOP in that area is fired-up to vote for Huey, the much larger pool of Dem voters in the district are apathetic, and Democrat Janice Hahn is an idiot. The independent voters are breaking to Huey, but he has to overcome a huge registration edge. Though close, no poll has him ahead.

However, turnout has been anemic (possibly under 15%), so they have got all the ingredients for a stunner. If Huey pulls off the fluke summer win against a bad candidate, he'll just rent the seat for a year and a half until the Dems boot him out in 2012, unless he wins the redistricting lottery.

Still, could be an interesting story soon.

SoCalBronco
07-12-2011, 08:49 PM
Hahn has the bloodlines and the district composition, we'll see if the upset can be pulled off, though.

alnorth
07-12-2011, 08:49 PM
oh yeah, and this race featured one of the most breathtakingly negative ads (from a super pac affiliated with neither candidate) I've ever seen. For the most part, the ad doesn't appear to be factually incorrect, though.

<iframe width="560" height="349" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/EZ3B8WvVjL4" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

alnorth
07-13-2011, 12:25 AM
At halftime with 48.7% counted, Hahn leads 57-43

alnorth
07-13-2011, 12:41 AM
big load of votes rolled in and its tightened up slightly, but unless all the outstanding is in republican neighborhoods, I think Hahn is going to survive.

78.9% of precincts, Hahn up 54-46

edit: 100% of precincts now reporting (says partially reporting, so I guess some votes still out there), looks like it'll be 54-46. What can you expect out of West Los Angeles, it would be like a Democrat winning in Wyoming. All things considered, that's not bad given the 18% registration edge and that the democrat got 2/3 of the votes last November.