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dirk digler
07-20-2011, 12:43 PM
Yes we need to fix the debt\deficit but IMVHO the biggest problem with the economy is no jobs. Get people back to work and stop paying people unemployment will go a long way to fixing our fiscal problems.


(The Wall Street Journal) - The main reason US companies are reluctant to step up hiring was scant demand, rather than uncertainty over government policies, according to a majority of economists in a new survey published Monday in the Wall Street Journal.

"There is no demand," Paul Ashworth of Capital Economics said. "Businesses aren't confident enough, and the longer this goes on the harder it is to convince them that they should be."

In the survey, conducted July 8 to 13, 53 economists -- not all of whom answered every question -- were asked the main reason employers were not hiring more readily. Of the 51 who responded to the question, 31, or 65 percent, cited lack of demand, while 14, or 27 percent, cited uncertainty about government policy. The others said hiring overseas was more appealing.

Some executives echoed the survey's central finding.

"We're hiring a little here and there -- but it's not what it should be," Daniel Cunningham, chief executive of Long-Stanton Manufacturing of Hamilton, Ohio, said. "And it's because of the lack of demand."

Long-Stanton, which makes metal parts for the aerospace, medical and other industries, has snapped back from the recession, "but volume is still not up to where it was, or where it should be," Cunningham said.

Overall, the economists in the WSJ survey dimmed their outlooks for economic growth and for two critical gears of the stop-and-go recovery that have yet to engage -- housing and jobs.

The economists have grown gloomier about the second half of the year and marked down their forecasts from earlier ones. Nevertheless, they still expected the economy to rebound in coming months and perform better than in the disappointing first half.

Source: The Wall Street Journal (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052702303661904576452181063763332.html)

Amnorix
07-20-2011, 12:49 PM
But...but....but....Steve Wynn said...


Yeah, unemployment and housing overhang. Those are the primary problems, and they feed off one another in a vicious cycle, dampening demand, which results in businesses not growing or hiring.

HonestChieffan
07-20-2011, 12:55 PM
If you make and sell widgets and no one is buying you sure dont build on to the plant and get a bigger truck.

mlyonsd
07-20-2011, 12:59 PM
As our universities keep training more and more foreign students here so they can go home and work for pennies on the dollar there this kind of story will repeat itself in shorter cycles.

vailpass
07-20-2011, 01:01 PM
But...but....but....Steve Wynn said...


Yeah, unemployment and housing overhang. Those are the primary problems, and they feed off one another in a vicious cycle, dampening demand, which results in businesses not growing or hiring.

This agrees with what Wynn said. Housing and unemployment downturn are a result of business not engaging.

obama is unpredictable due to his inability to take a stance. Wall Street is therefore conservative. As soon as obama is replaced by a steady President who has a consistent policy outlay the Street will respond.

Do you disagree that obama is not steady in his policy making? Is it your position that Wall Street has confidence in obama?

Pants
07-20-2011, 01:07 PM
As our universities keep training more and more foreign students here so they can go home and work for pennies on the dollar there this kind of story will repeat itself in shorter cycles.

What percentage of students attending American universities are foreign?

vailpass
07-20-2011, 01:10 PM
What percentage of students attending American universities are foreign?

Don't know what percentage this is but...the overall theme of the article is that the appeal of US colleges to foreingers is declining.

"...U.S. higher education has climbed out of its post-9/11 international enrollment dip and attracts more foreign students than any other country a record 691,000 in 2010, up from 475,000 in 2000, with the increase driven by an upsurge in Chinese undergraduates..."

http://www.usatoday.com/news/education/2011-06-23-international-college-students_n.htm

mlyonsd
07-20-2011, 01:12 PM
What percentage of students attending American universities are foreign?

A quick google using 2009 numbers....2% undergrads, 10.5% graduates.

http://chronicle.com/article/Number-of-Foreign-Students-/49142/

dirk digler
07-20-2011, 01:16 PM
This agrees with what Wynn said. Housing and unemployment downturn are a result of business not engaging.

obama is unpredictable due to his inability to take a stance. Wall Street is therefore conservative. As soon as obama is replaced by a steady President who has a consistent policy outlay the Street will respond.

Do you disagree that obama is not steady in his policy making? Is it your position that Wall Street has confidence in obama?

Actually it is the opposite to what Wynn said. According to this survey Unemployment or lack of hiring is mostly because of lack of demand by consumers not because of government.

HonestChieffan
07-20-2011, 01:18 PM
Actually it is the opposite to what Wynn said. According to this survey Unemployment or lack of hiring is mostly because of lack of demand by consumers not because of government.


And is why spending by government has little or no impact on consumer demand.

vailpass
07-20-2011, 01:19 PM
Actually it is the opposite to what Wynn said. According to this survey Unemployment or lack of hiring is mostly because of lack of demand by consumers not because of government.

And what is causing lack of demand by consumers?

Stewie
07-20-2011, 01:25 PM
Why is the focus on unemployment and housing? Those are ancillary and just a footnote to what is going on. I know they make the headlines, but come on.

dirk digler
07-20-2011, 01:33 PM
And is why spending by government has little or no impact on consumer demand.

Was this a question?


And what is causing lack of demand by consumers?

My guess is several reasons including unemployment, people not spending near as much because they are worried about their own situation, and no wage increases for the middle class in a decade.

Cave Johnson
07-20-2011, 01:35 PM
And what is causing lack of demand by consumers?

Stagnant wages, a double dip in the value of their homes, tightened borrowing, etc.

Why is the focus on unemployment and housing? Those are ancillary and just a footnote to what is going on. I know they make the headlines, but come on.

Ancillary? You do know consumer spending is 2/3 of our economy, right?

dirk digler
07-20-2011, 01:36 PM
Why is the focus on unemployment and housing? Those are ancillary and just a footnote to what is going on. I know they make the headlines, but come on.

So what is your opinion then?

vailpass
07-20-2011, 01:56 PM
Consumer confidence is down and people (like me and most people I know) aren't making as many major purchases or investments. Instead we go very conservative.

Investor confidence is down so the Street is a Bear.

Major employers aren't expanding or hiring as a result of the uncertain market.

obama is a major contributor to the lack of consumer, business and investor confidence.
Does anyone here feel that Wall Street has confidence in obama?

Stewie
07-20-2011, 02:03 PM
So what is your opinion then?

Default. Worldwide. These huge government programs cannot continue. It's especially acute in the US where we no longer produce anything other than airplanes. There are five US states that are on the chopping block that will soon have a worthless credit rating.

Calcountry
07-20-2011, 02:08 PM
What percentage of students attending American universities are foreign?20 years ago, half the graduate students at the UofA were from China, that's a fact.

Amnorix
07-20-2011, 02:23 PM
Let's see -- Tim Geithner, Larry Summers, Ben Bernacke, Austan Goolsbee, etc. Some of the most senior and influential members of Obama's economic team are holdovers from the Bush Administration, and none is some kind of liberal lunatic. And last I checked, Obama wasn't proposing nationalizing any of America's industries or anything.

I find it extremely difficult to ascribe any significant percentage of America's economic malaise to a general sense that Wall Street "doesn't trust" (or whatever), Obama. Not in the face of overwhelming issues such as stubbornly high unemployment, housing inventory, etc.

FD
07-20-2011, 02:47 PM
And what is causing lack of demand by consumers?

Deleveraging after 2 decades of consumption fueled by credit card debt and false increases in housing.

KC native
07-20-2011, 02:51 PM
Investor confidence is down so the Street is a Bear.



Yea, because nothing says bear like 109% rally in the S&P 500 over the last two years. :rolleyes:

suzzer99
07-20-2011, 02:52 PM
20 years ago, half the graduate students at the UofA were from China, that's a fact.

citation please

KC native
07-20-2011, 02:52 PM
Let's see -- Tim Geithner, Larry Summers, Ben Bernacke, Austan Goolsbee, etc. Some of the most senior and influential members of Obama's economic team are holdovers from the Bush Administration, and none is some kind of liberal lunatic. And last I checked, Obama wasn't proposing nationalizing any of America's industries or anything.

I find it extremely difficult to ascribe any significant percentage of America's economic malaise to a general sense that Wall Street "doesn't trust" (or whatever), Obama. Not in the face of overwhelming issues such as stubbornly high unemployment, housing inventory, etc.

This is yet another example of why I strongly maintain that our presidents outside of Hoover have had very little to no impact on the economy.

Amnorix
07-20-2011, 02:53 PM
Default. Worldwide. These huge government programs cannot continue. It's especially acute in the US where we no longer produce anything other than airplanes. There are five US states that are on the chopping block that will soon have a worthless credit rating.

Default is neither necessary nor inevitable, if our political leaders have the stones to make necessary, though difficult, decisions.

Amnorix
07-20-2011, 02:54 PM
This is yet another example of why I strongly maintain that our presidents outside of Hoover have had very little to no impact on the economy.

Generally true.

Stewie
07-20-2011, 03:29 PM
Default is neither necessary nor inevitable, if our political leaders have the stones to make necessary, though difficult, decisions.

But it's just doing the same thing over until it doesn't work. It quit working in '08 when the average American was unable to borrow any longer, and for good reason. That free money is gone forever. There were billion$ and billion$ paid in taxes in the "golden" age of rising real estate.

BucEyedPea
07-20-2011, 04:14 PM
We're defaulting either way. The politicians and their Kool-Aid drinkers just cover it up with better sounding words.

Calcountry
07-20-2011, 06:22 PM
citation pleaseI saw it with my own fugging eyeballs.