View Full Version : Obama Is the base running away?

07-26-2011, 10:18 AM
ABC News/NYT Times poll is not good, not good at all:

Poll: Obama losing support from base

The percentage of African-Americans who strongly support Obams's job policies has dropped.


President Barack Obama is losing support from his base, according to a new Washington Post/ABC News poll released on Tuesday that finds his backing from liberals and African-Americans has plummeted.

The percentage of liberal Democrats who strongly support the president’s job policies has dropped in the past year, from 53 percent to 31 percent, the poll shows.

The falloff among blacks is even more stark: From 77 percent supporting his record on the economy last year to just over 50 percent in 2011.

Overall, 52 percent of adults polled disapprove of the president’s handling of the economy. Those numbers come at a time that the unemployment rate is stubbornly stuck above 9 percent among all Americans and at about 16 percent among African Americans.

Among all respondents, 47 percent of those polled approve of Obama’s job as president, while 48 percent approve.

Those numbers decrease on the topic of the economy with 39 percent of those polled saying they approve of the president’s record there, the lowest Obama’s approval rate on the economy has been in a Post-ABC poll; that number stood at 50 percent in June 2010. About 60 percent of respondents disapprove of the president’s work with the federal budget deficit.

But Americans still cast blame on the country’s slow economic recovery on the president’s predecessor: 57 percent of those polled say George W. Bush’s policies made the economy worse, while 37 percent think the same of President Obama’s policies.

The Post-ABC poll was conducted from July 14-17 from a national sample of 1,001 people. The poll has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 3.5 percentage points.

Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0711/59897.html#ixzz1TEDQpffD

A Pew Research Poll:


(FOX News) — The Republican Party has made big gains among white voters since President Obama was elected in 2008, but not among any other racial or ethnic group, according to a new Pew Research poll.

More than half of all white voters (52 percent) now identify themselves as Republicans, compared with 39 percent who are Democrats. That 13-percentage-point lead is significantly higher than three years ago, when 46 percent of white voters were Republicans, compared to 44 percent of Democrats.

LA Times piles on...http://latimesblogs.latimes.com/washington/2011/07/obama-poll-jobs-democratic-base-crumbling.html

New polls confirm Obama's Democratic base crumbles
July 26, 2011 |

With all of the spotlights on the high-stakes debt maneuverings by President Obama and Speaker John Boehner the last few days, few people noticed what Vermont's Sen. Bernie Sanders said:

"I think it would be a good idea if President Obama faced some primary opposition."

This is political treason 469 days before a presidential election. Yes, yes, this is just a crusty old New England independent for now, albeit one who caucuses loyally with Harry Reid's Democratic posse.

But while most of the media focuses on Republican Boehner and the tea party pressures on him to raise the debt limit not one Liberty dime, Sanders' mumblings are a useful reminder that hidden in the shadows of this left-handed presidency are militant progressives like Sanders who don't want to cut one Liberty dime of non-Pentagon spending.

Closely read the transcript of Obama's Monday statement on the debt talks stalemate. The full transcript is right here. And the full transcript of Boehner's response is right here.

An Unbalanced Approach to a Balanced Approach

Using political forensics, notice any clues, perhaps telltale code words that reveal to whom he was really addressing his Monday message? Clearly, it wasn't congressional Republicans -- or Democrats, for that matter.

The nation's top talker uttered 4,526 words in those remarks. He said "balanced approach" seven times, three times in a single paragraph.

That's the giveaway. Obviously, David Plouffe and the incumbent's strategists have been polling phrases for use in this ongoing debt duel, which is more about 2012 now than 2011. "Balanced approach" is no sweet talk for old Bernie or tea sippers on the other side.

Obama is running for the center already, aiming for the independents who played such a crucial role in his victorious coalition in 2008. They were the first to start abandoning the good ship Obama back in 2009 when all the ex-state senator could do was talk about healthcare, when jobs and the economy were the peoples' priority.

Democrats lost the New Jersey and Virginia governor's offices largely as a result of that and Ted Kennedy's Senate seat in Massachusetts. And then came last November's midterms when voters chose the approach of that historic pack of House-bound Republicans.

Republicans have their own poll problems in some areas. But even without an identified GOP presidential alternative, we've had a plethora of recent polls showing Obama's fading job approval, especially on the economy.

Now, comes a new ABC News/Washington Post poll with a whole harvest of revelations, among them, strong indications that Obama's liberal base is starting to crumble. Among the nuggets:

Despite those hundreds of billions of blown stimulus dollars and almost as many upturn promises from Joe Biden, 82% of Americans still say their job market is struggling. Ninety percent rate the economy negatively, including half who give it the worst rating of "poor."

Are You Better Off Today Than Jan. 20, 2009?

A slim 15% claim to be "getting ahead financially," half what it was in 2006. Fully 27% say they're falling behind financially. That's up 6 points since February.

A significant majority (54%) says they've been forced to change their lifestyle significantly as a result of the economic times -- and 60% of them are angry, up from 44%.

To be sure, 30 months after he returned to home cooking, George W. Bush still gets majority blame for the economy.

But here's the breaking news for wishful Democrats: George W. Bush isn't running for anything but exercise.

"More than a third of Americans now believe that President Obama’s policies are hurting the economy, and confidence in his ability to create jobs is sharply eroding among his base," the Post reports.

Strong support among liberal Democrats for Obama's jobs record has plummeted 22 points from 53% down below a third. African Americans who believe the president's measures helped the economy have plunged from 77% to barely half.

Obama's overall job approval on the economy has slid below 40% for the first time, with 57% disapproving. And strong disapprovers outnumber approvers by better than two-to-one.

At the same time, the Democratic Party’s dominance among black and Hispanic voters continues. Eighty-six percent of black voters and 64 percent of Hispanics are aligned with Democrats, compared to 8 percent of blacks and 22 percent of Hispanics for Republicans. In 2008, 88 percent of blacks and 66 percent of Hispanics voted Democratic, and 6 percent of blacks and 28 percent of Hispanics for Republicans.

The GOP gains among white voters was most pronounced among the young and the poor, the poll found. Republicans now hold an 11-point lead over Democrats among whites under age 30 (52 percent to 41 percent). Three years ago, Democrats held a seven-point lead at 49 percent to 42 percent. Among low-income voters — families with incomes less than $30,000 — Republicans have a four-point lead, erasing the 15-point advantage Democrats had in 2008.

But the poll added that the massive GOP gains that helped sweep the party back into power last year haven’t continued and that the Republican Party hasn’t expanded from its 28 percent of registered voters since 2008. The number of political independents, however, reached a record high at 34 percent in 2011, and more of them say they “lean” toward the GOP — 16 percent now compared with 11 percent in 2008, the poll found.

When leaners are included with partisans, Democrats have a four-point lead among all registered voters, with 47 percent. That’s down from the 12-point lead Democrats held over Republicans in 2008 with 51 percent of registered voters.

And Gallup:http://www.gallup.com/poll/148634/Obama-Weekly-Job-Approval-Ties-Term-Low.aspx


PRINCETON, NJ — President Barack Obama averaged a 43% job approval rating for the week of July 18-24, tied for the lowest weekly average of his administration. Obama’s rating at this point is lower than President Bill Clinton’s ratings were in the fall of 1995 when he was embroiled in a budget dispute similar to the one Obama faces now.

Obama’s most recent weekly job approval rating is similar to his 44% of the previous week, but down three percentage points from the two weeks before that. The president also had 43% weekly job approval ratings in late June, in April, and in August 2010. His three-day job approval average for the weekend, July 22-24, is 45%, up slightly from 42% for July 21-23.

The trajectory of Obama’s approval ratings going forward will depend partly on the way the current high-stakes, high-visibility negotiations over the federal budget and deficit play out in the weeks ahead. Obama spent last week working with Speaker of the House John Boehner and others to reach agreement on lifting the nation’s debt ceiling by Aug. 2. By the weekend, the negotiations were at an impasse, and Obama was left without an agreement on the big budget deal he had been pursuing.

go bo
07-26-2011, 10:31 AM
left-handed presidency

wtf? :cuss: :cuss: :cuss:

07-26-2011, 10:36 AM
He's getting reelected. I've just learned to accept it. I don't care what the polls say

go bo
07-26-2011, 10:38 AM
He's getting reelected. I've just learned to accept it. I don't care what the polls say

if the pubs don't come up with a decent candidate i would agree with you...

so far, it looks like i'll be holding my nose and voting for the big o again...

Taco John
07-26-2011, 10:41 AM
He's getting reelected. I've just learned to accept it. I don't care what the polls say

I used to think so - but now I'm not so convinced. I still think he's very strong for re-election, but he's losing the debt ceiling debate on every front right now, and his base isn't going to like it. I'm not sure what he's going to do between now and 2012 to get his base excited to bring him back. I think that fear of what might replace him is going to be the biggest thing going for him, and that's not a very strong position to be in. That said, it worked for Bush (fear of Kerry).

Bob Dole
07-26-2011, 10:46 AM
I'm not sure what he's going to do between now and 2012 to get his base excited to bring him back.

Promise a bunch of free shit that other people will pay for?

07-26-2011, 10:50 AM
Free gas and reparations. Dream Act and amnesty. Enhanced Affirmative Action.
that piece of shit in our White House will pull it all out and soon.

07-26-2011, 11:00 AM
Yeah, okay. But they'll still vote for him in spades.

07-26-2011, 11:05 AM
Yeah, okay. But they'll still vote for him in spades.


That is some dark humor.

07-26-2011, 11:08 AM
Yeah, okay. But they'll still vote for him in spades.

They will vote for him no matter what...but if these poll numbers hold up, how much will that effect voter turnout? If a lot of them just stay home and don't vote at all, it still hurts Obama's chances.

07-26-2011, 11:09 AM

That is some dark humor.


I didn't even think of that.

07-26-2011, 11:09 AM
I used to think so - but now I'm not so convinced. I still think he's very strong for re-election, but he's losing the debt ceiling debate on every front right now, and his base isn't going to like it. I'm not sure what he's going to do between now and 2012 to get his base excited to bring him back. I think that fear of what might replace him is going to be the biggest thing going for him, and that's not a very strong position to be in. That said, it worked for Bush (fear of Kerry).


As the debt ceiling debate drags on, a new CNN/ORC International Poll reveals a growing public exasperation and demand for compromise. Sixty-four percent of respondents to a July 18-20 survey preferred a deal with a mix of spending cuts and tax increases. Only 34% preferred a debt reduction plan based solely on spending reductions.

As in Congress, the public is sharply divided along partisan lines. Democrats and independents, according to the CNN/ORC Poll, are open to a number of different approaches because they think a failure to raise the debt ceiling would cause a crisis of major problems for the country. Republicans, however, draw the line at tax increases, and a narrow majority of them oppose raising the debt ceiling under any circumstances.

Fifty-two percent of Americans think Obama has acted responsibly in the debt ceiling talks so far, but nearly two-thirds say the Republicans in Congress have not acted responsibly. Fifty-one percent would blame the GOP if the debt ceiling is not raised; only three in 10 would blame Obama.


go bo
07-26-2011, 11:12 AM
eh, what do they know on the communist news network?

they probably faked those polls...

yeah, that's the ticket, they faked those polls...

07-26-2011, 11:13 AM

I didn't even think of that.

I didn't think you were working my side of the street on purpose. That's what made it funnier.

07-26-2011, 11:15 AM
Poll July 18 wont reflect a swing over the last few days

07-26-2011, 11:36 AM
WSJ seems to think this is a costly political gamble by Obama.http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424053111903999904576468771171844358.html?mod=WSJ_Opinion_LEADTop

A Leadership Default
The President blames House Republicans for everything.

The Obama Presidency has been unprecedented in many ways, and last night we saw another startling illustration: A President using a national TV address from the White House to call out his political opposition as unreasonable and radical and blame them as the sole reason for the "stalemate" over spending and the national debt.

We've watched dozens of these speeches over the years, and this was more like a DNC fund-raiser than an Oval Office address. Though President Obama referred to the need to compromise, his idea of compromise was to call on the public to overwhelm Republicans with demands to raise taxes. He demeaned the GOP for protecting, in his poll-tested language, "millionaires and billionaires," for favoring "corporate jet owners and oil companies" over seniors on Medicare, and "hedge fund managers" over "their secretaries." While he invoked Ronald Reagan, the Gipper would never have used such rhetoric about his opposition on an issue of national moment.

One irony is that Mr. Obama's demands for tax increases have already been abandoned by Members of his own party in the Senate. Majority Leader Harry Reid knows that Democrats running for re-election next year don't want to vote to raise taxes, so he's fashioning a bill to raise the debt ceiling that includes only reductions in spending. But Mr. Obama never mentioned that rather large fact about Mr. Reid's effort.

Apart from shifting blame for any debt default, the speech was also an attempt to inoculate Mr. Obama in case the U.S. loses its AAA credit rating. He cleverly, if dishonestly, elided the credit-rating issue with the debt-ceiling debate. But he knows that Standard & Poor's has said that it may cut the U.S. rating even if Congress moves on the debt ceiling. Mr. Obama wants to avoid any accountability for the spending blowout of the last three years that has raised the national debt held by the public—the kind we have to pay back—from 40% in 2008 to 72% next year, and rising. This will be the real cause of any downgrade.

Speaker John Boehner made clear in his speech that the GOP doesn't want a default but wants more genuine cuts in spending. Mr. Obama is betting his rhetoric will cause the public to turn against the GOP, but we wonder if voters will be persuaded by a man whose concept of leadership is the politics of blame.