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petegz28
08-04-2011, 10:18 AM
Things aren't looking so good for your 401k plan. While Europe is considered the main reason for the moment, the fact is our economyis taking a turn for the worst.

Manufacturing...down
Consumer confidence...down
Unemployment...up
Layoffs...16 month high
Growth rate forecasts....down


But don't worry, Obama said there will be no "double-dip" recession and that his Admin is now going to focus on jobs........again

blaise
08-04-2011, 10:19 AM
When's the next census?

Mr. Flopnuts
08-04-2011, 10:27 AM
Quantitative Easing XLVII is on the way!

King_Chief_Fan
08-04-2011, 11:45 AM
are you saying I get to lose another $100k in the next 10 days?

petegz28
08-04-2011, 12:46 PM
Better make that 400 points

Chief Henry
08-04-2011, 01:16 PM
Hope and Change

ROYC75
08-04-2011, 01:37 PM
Hope and Change

I don't think I can handle another Hope & Change mantra.

ChiefsandO'sfan
08-04-2011, 01:58 PM
Down 497

petegz28
08-04-2011, 01:58 PM
Make that 500 points!!!

eazyb81
08-04-2011, 02:01 PM
Expect an ugly employment report tomorrow to drive another sell-off into the weekend.

Every sector looks like crap right now. This has been a horrible earnings season.

KC native
08-04-2011, 02:06 PM
4.5% down day. Pretty brutal but very expected (although not in one day). The market had gotten very overextended. The S&P 500 might get down into the 1100 range.

Bob Dole
08-04-2011, 02:06 PM
What's a 4% drop?

petegz28
08-04-2011, 02:09 PM
4.5% down day. Pretty brutal but very expected (although not in one day). The market had gotten very overextended. The S&P 500 might get down into the 1100 range.

I agree we were overextended but I do think we have rough roads ahead. I just dumped all my small cap holdings in place for TIPS.

petegz28
08-04-2011, 02:11 PM
If you look at the SP500, we are actually down over 600 dow points.

I am glad I put some short positions on in my IRA last week. At least it is cushioning the blow some.

petegz28
08-04-2011, 02:14 PM
Worst 1 day sell off since Dec. of 2008.

eazyb81
08-04-2011, 02:15 PM
Gold also sold off after it hit a record high earlier in the day. Silver got beat up.

petegz28
08-04-2011, 02:18 PM
Gold also sold off after it hit a record high earlier in the day. Silver got beat up.

Everything tanked today. Money flowed into the $ and bonds.

eazyb81
08-04-2011, 02:26 PM
Everything tanked today. Money flowed into the $ and bonds.

Right, but the interesting point is that gold and silver have been viewed as safe havens to hide while equities slide on a weak consumer. 2Q earnings across the board have been pretty terrible with numerous guide downs, and companies are no longer getting rewarded for hitting their number on cost savings; investors want to see growth. I follow healthcare in particular and the entire sector has been crushed due to weak volumes and reimbursement headwinds. Stocks no longer look cheap if you think earnings are questionable and the macro data continues to punch you in the gut.

Amnorix
08-04-2011, 02:44 PM
Think the market is starting to realize that the stimulus didn't do all that was expected, and that deficit hawks have the upper hand. While that may well be a good long term thing, it could easily be a bad short term thing for the economy.

Without further stimulus spending, the threat of tax increases and spending cuts, on top of an anemic economic situation, there doesn't seem to be much prospect of helping the economy anytime soon.

petegz28
08-04-2011, 02:48 PM
Think the market is starting to realize that the stimulus didn't do all that was expected, and that deficit hawks have the upper hand. While that may well be a good long term thing, it could easily be a bad short term thing for the economy.

Without further stimulus spending, the threat of tax increases and spending cuts, on top of an anemic economic situation, there doesn't seem to be much prospect of helping the economy anytime soon.

why would we want more stimulus? The whole problem is we are trying to avoid swallowing the pill we are going to have to swallow eventually anyway.

Bewbies
08-04-2011, 03:35 PM
Think the market is starting to realize that the stimulus didn't do all that was expected, and that deficit hawks have the upper hand. While that may well be a good long term thing, it could easily be a bad short term thing for the economy.

Without further stimulus spending, the threat of tax increases and spending cuts, on top of an anemic economic situation, there doesn't seem to be much prospect of helping the economy anytime soon.

Stimulus was an absolute failure at what it was sold to us as. It was a money laundering scheme that went to state and local unions to keep their employment #'s up so they could send huge donations back to the D's.

Why in the hell do people think that is going to improve an economy?

petegz28
08-04-2011, 03:38 PM
BTW, the markets are now at the same levels as last November. In other words QE II was just a fucking waste.

KC native
08-04-2011, 05:25 PM
Stimulus was an absolute failure at what it was sold to us as. It was a money laundering scheme that went to state and local unions to keep their employment #'s up so they could send huge donations back to the D's.

Why in the hell do people think that is going to improve an economy?

You are an idiot.

LiveSteam
08-04-2011, 05:46 PM
You are an idiot.

No Boobies is not. Thats exactly WTF happened,El mas Chingon

Bob Dole
08-04-2011, 06:02 PM
Stimulus was an absolute failure at what it was sold to us as. It was a money laundering scheme that went to state and local unions to keep their employment #'s up so they could send huge donations back to the D's.

Why in the hell do people think that is going to improve an economy?

The university where Bob Dole works was actually able to make significant capital improvements (buildings and replacement of aging infrastructure) thanks to ARRA funds...

petegz28
08-04-2011, 06:20 PM
The problem with the stimulus was it was never backed up with anything tangible for the long term. Obama said unemployment wouldn't go past 8% if we did it and what happened? It was a band-aid that stopped the bleeding for just a little while. Nothing else was done. QE's I and II are pretty much failures. Foreclosures are at record highs. Layoffs are at a 16 month high. The market has just crashed back down to pre QE II levels. The entire fucking global economy is taking it up the ass for being in too much debt. WTF would that not happen to us? Oh wait, it is.

We've got dick for tax reform except some political idiots that think raising taxes marginally on a small group of people is somehow the answer to all that ails us. We are now hearing for at least the 3rd time the President say "we need to focus on jobs". Instead we get bullshit spending, bullshit programs like Obamacare, more bullshit rules and regulations that cost companies.

Nothing coming out of D.C., from either side, that is actually encouraging job growth. Nothing. Nada. Zilch. And WTF is our fearless leader? Campaigning at fundraisers. If he wants to slap Congress around and tell them to get shit done to help fix the economy then he has a fucked up way of showing it.

Calcountry
08-04-2011, 08:08 PM
4.5% down day. Pretty brutal but very expected (although not in one day). The market had gotten very overextended. The S&P 500 might get down into the 1100 range.Don't stop, believing.

Calcountry
08-04-2011, 08:09 PM
The problem with the stimulus was it was never backed up with anything tangible for the long term. Obama said unemployment wouldn't go past 8% if we did it and what happened? It was a band-aid that stopped the bleeding for just a little while. Nothing else was done. QE's I and II are pretty much failures. Foreclosures are at record highs. Layoffs are at a 16 month high. The market has just crashed back down to pre QE II levels. The entire ****ing global economy is taking it up the ass for being in too much debt. WTF would that not happen to us? Oh wait, it is.

We've got dick for tax reform except some political idiots that think raising taxes marginally on a small group of people is somehow the answer to all that ails us. We are now hearing for at least the 3rd time the President say "we need to focus on jobs". Instead we get bullshit spending, bullshit programs like Obamacare, more bullshit rules and regulations that cost companies.

Nothing coming out of D.C., from either side, that is actually encouraging job growth. Nothing. Nada. Zilch. And WTF is our fearless leader? Campaigning at fundraisers. If he wants to slap Congress around and tell them to get shit done to help fix the economy then he has a ****ed up way of showing it.The problem with stimulus, is that it prolonged the agony.

Bwana
08-04-2011, 08:21 PM
Hope and Change

No shit. :spock:

BucEyedPea
08-04-2011, 08:25 PM
The university where Bob Dole works was actually able to make significant capital improvements (buildings and replacement of aging infrastructure) thanks to ARRA funds...

Too bad online education will eventually replace all the brick and mortar universities...the sooner the better so costs can drop while campuses turn to dust. Meanwhile students will be free of debt servitude. :drool:

Jenson71
08-04-2011, 08:31 PM
Depressing day.

petegz28
08-04-2011, 09:07 PM
Depressing day.

Slightly. And now you are getting more strength in the $ which will take more of the edge off of stocks as well. I have been wrong thus far about my call for higher interest rates but I think that is about to start changing too. Foreign countries are not going to continue buying our debt at shit interest rates.

ClevelandBronco
08-04-2011, 09:12 PM
Personally, I'll lay plenty of blame for whatever happens from now on on that part of the Republican Party that compromised with the democrats this week.

gonefishin53
08-04-2011, 09:39 PM
Wall St. wants QE3. A 15% drop from peek Dow levels should convince Bernanke it's needed. The financial elites meet in Jackson Hole, Wyoming next week. Just like last year, expect Bernanke to announce another round of quantitative easing (aka printing money) following their meetings. Don't be surprised if the financial elites decide that the fed needs to "loan" the European Central Bank a few trillion dollars to save European banks from collapse.

BigChiefFan
08-04-2011, 09:56 PM
Wall St. wants QE3. A 15% drop from peek Dow levels should convince Bernanke it's needed. The financial elites meet in Jackson Hole, Wyoming next week. Just like last year, expect Bernanke to announce another round of quantitative easing (aka printing money) following their meetings. Don't be surprised if the financial elites decide that the fed needs to "loan" the European Central Bank a few trillion dollars to save European banks from collapse.Good take.

Chiefshrink
08-04-2011, 10:11 PM
Obama behind the scenes is doing his best Mr.Burns right now as the economy tanks even further.


<iframe width="425" height="349" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/YKUOB8MN4Kc" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

Chiefshrink
08-04-2011, 10:13 PM
Don't be surprised if the financial elites decide that the fed needs to "loan" the European Central Bank a few trillion dollars to save European banks from collapse.

We already did it today with a few billion:rolleyes: We don't have.

Chiefshrink
08-04-2011, 10:13 PM
Personally, I'll lay plenty of blame for whatever happens from now on on that part of the Republican Party that compromised with the democrats this week.

:thumb:

BigMeatballDave
08-05-2011, 03:22 AM
I work in manufacturing. We are swamped. Our largest customer is Cummins. They want to increase their orders by some 500%

Amnorix
08-05-2011, 05:34 AM
why would we want more stimulus? The whole problem is we are trying to avoid swallowing the pill we are going to have to swallow eventually anyway.


Heard an economics expert on Japan saying Japan did the same thing in about 1997 -- economy was starting to recover so the government decided to start attacking the deficit. Resulted in the economy imploding, which of course made the deficit even worse.

I'm a big deficit hawk, but I do worry that the timing is not good. In my view, the irresponsibility of the last two generations have put us in a very bad position to deal with the economic problems we currently have. The normal way to attack a recession is NOT to cut government spending or raise taxes, but our deficit situation si so bad that we feel maybe we have to do that and damn the consequences.

Amnorix
08-05-2011, 05:36 AM
Obama behind the scenes is doing his best Mr.Burns right now as the economy tanks even further.



You could argue that the Republicans' sudden decision to focus on deficit/debt -- an item they have ignored for YEARS -- is callously designed to ensure that Obama doesn't get re-elected by worsening the economy. I personally don't believe that's the case, but I wouldn't be surprised if some on the left are arguing that.

I *DO* think that the failure of Congress to do anything but focus on this self-created debt ceiling problem has worsened teh situation. They could have tried any of a number of job growth initiatives, but instead it's been debt ceiling, debt ceiling, debt ceiling. Now that everyone's attention is back on the underlying economics, everyone is realizing that they are bad and have been ignored for months now.

Amnorix
08-05-2011, 05:38 AM
Stimulus was an absolute failure at what it was sold to us as. It was a money laundering scheme that went to state and local unions to keep their employment #'s up so they could send huge donations back to the D's.

Why in the hell do people think that is going to improve an economy?

:rolleyes:

petegz28
08-05-2011, 06:21 AM
Heard an economics expert on Japan saying Japan did the same thing in about 1997 -- economy was starting to recover so the government decided to start attacking the deficit. Resulted in the economy imploding, which of course made the deficit even worse.

I'm a big deficit hawk, but I do worry that the timing is not good. In my view, the irresponsibility of the last two generations have put us in a very bad position to deal with the economic problems we currently have. The normal way to attack a recession is NOT to cut government spending or raise taxes, but our deficit situation si so bad that we feel maybe we have to do that and damn the consequences.

That doesn't mean we need a new stimulus. The dumb fucks in D.C. don't know wtf to do and the last thing we need is them playing banker with another $ 1 tril of our money. They just need to stay the fuck out of the way for once.

Amnorix
08-05-2011, 06:30 AM
That doesn't mean we need a new stimulus. The dumb fucks in D.C. don't know wtf to do and the last thing we need is them playing banker with another $ 1 tril of our money. They just need to stay the fuck out of the way for once.


New stimulus is off the table politically, obviously, but there are other things they can do to try to spur job growth and/or fix the ongoing headaches in the housing market.

Sitting on their thumbs is not a good idea.

stevieray
08-05-2011, 07:23 AM
but there are other things they can do to try to spur job growth

BS. they don't "create" jobs, and it's not their "job" to do so..

...the President has been blowing this smoke up the country's ass for two years.

Bewbies
08-05-2011, 07:24 AM
:rolleyes:

Ignoring it doesn't make it false.

http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/64116527.html

http://www.opensecrets.org/orgs/list.php

Amnorix
08-05-2011, 07:27 AM
BS. they don't "create" jobs, and it's not their "job" to do so..

...the President has been blowing this smoke up the country's ass for two years.

Policies can and do impact job growth. I thought you guys argued that higher taxes kills jobs, right? So you agree with me.

Glad we're in agreement on this.

Amnorix
08-05-2011, 07:27 AM
Ignoring it doesn't make it false.

http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/64116527.html

http://www.opensecrets.org/orgs/list.php

I certainly agree that osme of the stimulus had that effect, but it certainly had other effects as well. You make it sound like the whole thing went into union coffers.

ClevelandBronco
08-05-2011, 07:44 AM
Policies can and do impact job growth. I thought you guys argued that higher taxes kills jobs, right? So you agree with me.

Our wonderful, funderful federal government is vastly more effective at retarding economic growth than it is at promoting it. A high tax rate on corporations is just one of the tools that they misuse.

Glad we're in agreement on this.

stevieray
08-05-2011, 07:49 AM
Policies can and do impact job growth. I thought you guys argued that higher taxes kills jobs, right? So you agree with me.

Glad we're in agreement on this.

impact does not equal create...it equals control.

your sarcasm won't mask that point, no matter how much "you guys" make the claim.

petegz28
08-05-2011, 07:56 AM
Policies can and do impact job growth. I thought you guys argued that higher taxes kills jobs, right? So you agree with me.

Glad we're in agreement on this.

This is correct. Ironically Native disagrees but yes, policies, rules and regulations do have an impact on job growth.

Chiefshrink
08-05-2011, 07:57 AM
I work in manufacturing. We are swamped. Our largest customer is Cummins. They want to increase their orders by some 500%

Glad to hear at least someone is still living the American dream:thumb: that is now on life support for most:rolleyes:

petegz28
08-05-2011, 07:58 AM
impact does not equal create...it equals control.

your sarcasm won't mask that point, no matter how much "you guys" make the claim.

Yes but impact directly impacts the ability to create jobs. The Fed Gov controls the rules and regulations. Those rules and regulations have a direct impact (there's that word again) on how a company can do business.

petegz28
08-05-2011, 07:59 AM
Well, looks like the rally at the open was sold into immediately.

Chiefshrink
08-05-2011, 08:25 AM
You could argue that the Republicans' sudden decision to focus on deficit/debt -- an item they have ignored for YEARS -- is callously designed to ensure that Obama doesn't get re-elected by worsening the economy. I personally don't believe that's the case, but I wouldn't be surprised if some on the left are arguing that.

I *DO* think that the failure of Congress to do anything but focus on this self-created debt ceiling problem has worsened teh situation. They could have tried any of a number of job growth initiatives, but instead it's been debt ceiling, debt ceiling, debt ceiling. Now that everyone's attention is back on the underlying economics, everyone is realizing that they are bad and have been ignored for months now.

Understand that RINOs and the Lefties are in the back pockets of the multi-national corporations across the world and Wall Street(Mitch,John,Barry,Nancy and Harrry). RINOs and the Lefties are addicted to 'stealing' our "We The People"'s wealth under the guise of manufactured crisis to justify this.

They co-opt each other when it's politically convenient (a la debt ceiling) especially when Mom & Dad(We The People) are about to "bust them" and expose the criminal thievery game from 'We The People' that has gone on since the early 1900's.

The only difference I really see between the RINOs and Lefties are that the RINOs don't have an agenda to actually destroy 'capitalism' in America naively thinking America will always "be" regardless of their criminal policy actions whereas the Marxist Dems actually do want to destroy American capitalism and naively think they can build a better economical system for the people:rolleyes:.

Bottom line: RINOs, Lefties and the Marxist Media "ALWAYS COME TOGETHER POLITICALLY" to preserve and defend their corrupt hands stealing from "We The People's Cookie Jar" when "CONSERVATISM"(a la "We The People") are out in full force wanting to take back what is rightfully 'OUR' property. This thievery game 'MUST NEVER BE EXPOSED'. Scratching each others backs keeps the criminal activity 'ALIVE' and 'conservatism' must be held at bay at all times otherwise the so-called 'legal stealing' is exposed.

However, "We The People"(a la Tea Party) are finally now on to these thieves. Won't you join the Tea Party Amonorix?:p

gonefishin53
08-05-2011, 10:08 AM
Gov't. doesn't create jobs. However, Gov't. can be very effective at destroying private sector jobs with stupid policies. My 3 point jobs program would be:

1. Replace the most expensive tax code in the history of the planet with a tax code that is so simple the anchors at CBS/ABC/NBC can fully explain all of it's provisions in 10 minutes.

2. Let states decide how federal fuel taxes collected in their states are spent and let states decide whether to pay union wages or market wages. Eliminating Washington's 25% skim of fuel taxes and the union bosses power over all transportation related construction wages will put a lot more boots on the ground resulting in more completed projects and improved transportation infrastructure.

3. Regulate the obscene greed of the Litigation Industry by implementing "loser pay" where the losing side in a lawsuit has to pay the the legal fees of the winning side. A "loser pay" law has worked well in England and Texas has become even more attractive to business since they adopted "loser pay".

Jenson71
08-05-2011, 10:48 AM
Well, looks like the rally at the open was sold into immediately.

They think it's going to rebound pretty well, today?

petegz28
08-05-2011, 12:53 PM
They think it's going to rebound pretty well, today?

Up 109 on the down for the moment. If I had to throw out a guess it's short covering going into the weekend. We will see what happens early next week. The Nasdaq is still down over 14 so it's hardly a broad based rally at the moment.

BigChiefFan
08-05-2011, 01:13 PM
I lost quite a bit yesterday, but they are bouncing back a little today. Yesterday was a heck of a nose-dive.

Amnorix
08-05-2011, 01:16 PM
Up 109 on the down for the moment. If I had to throw out a guess it's short covering going into the weekend. We will see what happens early next week. The Nasdaq is still down over 14 so it's hardly a broad based rally at the moment.

Italian debt deal.

petegz28
08-05-2011, 01:35 PM
Italian debt deal.

That's what they say anyway. I'm a technical analyst so news really means little to me though I don't totally ignore it. Price action is price action is price action. I mean like last week they were saying the market was tanking on fears over the debt ceiling when traders in the SP pits were saying it was actually due to strength in the $.

So either way, it's looking like short covering. If there was a huge sigh of relief over Italy we would see a broader rally.

petegz28
08-05-2011, 01:39 PM
Now it's pulled all the way back and the Dow is barely in the green. The SP500 is down 5 (50 dow points). This is nothing but people covering their shorts heading into the weekend. The lack of huge selling can be attributed to Italy by the media but it's more than likely no one wanting to put on new positions heading into the weekend.

Amnorix
08-05-2011, 01:49 PM
That's what they say anyway. I'm a technical analyst so news really means little to me though I don't totally ignore it. Price action is price action is price action. I mean like last week they were saying the market was tanking on fears over the debt ceiling when traders in the SP pits were saying it was actually due to strength in the $.

So either way, it's looking like short covering. If there was a huge sigh of relief over Italy we would see a broader rally.

Oh lordy -- those head-and-shoulder formations and the like?

petegz28
08-05-2011, 01:58 PM
Now it's pulled all the way back and the Dow is barely in the green. The SP500 is down 5 (50 dow points). This is nothing but people covering their shorts heading into the weekend. The lack of huge selling can be attributed to Italy by the media but it's more than likely no one wanting to put on new positions heading into the weekend.

And now, back up 70. Pretty volatile in the last hour of trading. I have a theory that over the shorter time frames I have tested it shows that if the SPY goes down from 2:00-2:30 CT it will reverse at 2:30 into the market close and vice-versa. The theory being the specialists know what orders are coming in at the end of the day so they have to position themelves to handle them. So, if there are going to be a ton of buy orders coming in, which is when a lot of mutual funds and institutions trade, they will sell the market of the 1/2 hour before to load their books and make money on the stock they will sell the buyers at a higer price.

Friday's last 30 minutes are usually indicative of the current mentality. If the market has been down all week, as it has this week and you see buying on Friday, especially at the end of the day, you can bet it's people covering their shorts and taking profits heading into the weekend. If the market has been down all week and you selling going into the close on Friday then you can bet there is a strong commitment to the sell side. And of course the opposite is the market was up all week, etc.

petegz28
08-05-2011, 02:06 PM
Oh lordy -- those head-and-shoulder formations and the like?

Those formations are very telling. There is a whole arsenal of technical tools to be used. One can very easily overload themselves with them as well. It is more of an art than a science when you get down to it. The trick to it though is to know what tools to use and when. Identifying trend vs. channeling is arguably the hardest but most important aspect. If you know what if the market is trending or not you know which tools to use.

For example, if the market is trending you are going to get killed using stochastics or any type of overbought\oversold indicator. If the market is not trending then you are going to get whipsawed to death if you are using moving averages.

Patterns such as the head and shoulders are nothing more than a display of behavior via price action. By knowing what patterns to look for you can reasonably obtain the psychology of the market. Thus psychology in and of itself being a significant part of technical analysis. It's reasonble to think that if someone bought a stock at $50, the stock falls to $47 then goes back to $50 then that person is going to sell at break even thus generating a resistance level at $50.

Let's just say that through prudent analysis but yet keeping it simple, I have been able to call every major turn in the markey shortly after the top or bottom formed with minimal false signals. No system will ever call the turns on a dime consistently, though some get on a good streak with such at times. Those people end up selling you their system and getting rich off of you paying for a broke system.

Amnorix
08-05-2011, 03:00 PM
Those formations are very telling. There is a whole arsenal of technical tools to be used. One can very easily overload themselves with them as well. It is more of an art than a science when you get down to it. The trick to it though is to know what tools to use and when. Identifying trend vs. channeling is arguably the hardest but most important aspect. If you know what if the market is trending or not you know which tools to use.

For example, if the market is trending you are going to get killed using stochastics or any type of overbought\oversold indicator. If the market is not trending then you are going to get whipsawed to death if you are using moving averages.

Patterns such as the head and shoulders are nothing more than a display of behavior via price action. By knowing what patterns to look for you can reasonably obtain the psychology of the market. Thus psychology in and of itself being a significant part of technical analysis. It's reasonble to think that if someone bought a stock at $50, the stock falls to $47 then goes back to $50 then that person is going to sell at break even thus generating a resistance level at $50.

Let's just say that through prudent analysis but yet keeping it simple, I have been able to call every major turn in the markey shortly after the top or bottom formed with minimal false signals. No system will ever call the turns on a dime consistently, though some get on a good streak with such at times. Those people end up selling you their system and getting rich off of you paying for a broke system.


I understand the system. Well, I understand the most basic of its concepts. While I understand the appeal, I find it a bit difficult ot believe you won't eventually get soaked, but whatever. Best of luck to you.

Is it your full time "occupation", or something you do on the side?

petegz28
08-05-2011, 03:54 PM
I understand the system. Well, I understand the most basic of its concepts. While I understand the appeal, I find it a bit difficult ot believe you won't eventually get soaked, but whatever. Best of luck to you.

Is it your full time "occupation", or something you do on the side?

Just something I do on the side. I have been studying technical analysis for almost 22 years now. Why do you think someone would eventually get soaked? Price action is price action regardless of why the action is taking place. Now I am speaking in terms of analyzing the market overall. If you are talking about a specific stock then yes, you do need to incorporate some fundamental analysis. Strictly speaking from a market perpsective however, I think technical analysis is superior in many ways. Again, price action is price action. Is the market trending? Yes or no. If so to what direction and how strong is the trend? Is the market de-trending? Yes or no. If yes how strong of a trend is it coming off of? Is the market trendless yes or no? These are basically the only questions one needs to answer. If the market us trending up then I will go long. I don't care why it is trending up because why is really irrelevant. It's not like a point gained is worth any more or less because I believe I know why the market is trending up. The market is trending up because people are buying the market and that will reflect itself in the price action regardless of why.

And not to say I am innocent from doing so but trying to pick why the market is doing what it is doing is for the most part an exercise in ego. One person could be going long because of earnings forecast while another could be going long simply out of a dollar-cost averaging strategy. The end result is the same. Technical analysis cuts through the BS and shows you what people are actually doing with their money, not why. Again, why is irelevant. When it comes down to it I don't care why people are buying or selling, I just want to know IF they are buying or selling. If you have a rigid, disciplined system, techinical analysis takes the emotion out of it. You won't always be right or right on time but I believe it is better than making an estimate on what a stock is worth or should be worth and praying someone else agrees with you.

A good example is the recent sell off. There were several indicators pointing to a sell-off and as it progressed even a stronger sell-off. The reasons why we sold off though have changed several times over the last couple weeks. the end result, regardless of the reasoning was a sell off. The price action showed there was a sell-off coming and that was consistent throughout the reasoning or change of reasoning behind it.

In the sell-off of 2008 I saw it coming in July of 07. I heard the standard "it's just a correction", "it's a minor pull back", "it's a good buyin opportunity" type cliches. Meanwhile people had a shitload of their 401k's wiped out becasue they held on until the bottom then dumped when they should have been buying. By the same token when they were all starting to dump I was starting to buy. Why? Because they price action showed that the downtrend was over.

It's not a Holy Grail and everyone has their own thing. That is just what works for me.

ROYC75
08-05-2011, 04:20 PM
This guy thinks so ..... I dunno, but his points are valid.

http://247wallst.com/2011/06/28/why-the-dow-will-plunge-to-7000/

BucEyedPea
08-05-2011, 04:33 PM
Not only the Dow but a silent bank run has begun....starting in Greece.
And don't think it can't happen here....many banks continue to fail here as well.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/aug/01/greece-panic-change

petegz28
08-05-2011, 04:34 PM
This guy thinks so ..... I dunno, but his points are valid.

http://247wallst.com/2011/06/28/why-the-dow-will-plunge-to-7000/

We very well could see Dow 7000 again. No one reall knows though and that is a long way off. The thing is the environment is ever-changing so while someone may make a forecast based off today's events that could change tomorrow. In truth however, given what may or may not happen outside of the stock market, a lower Dow may not be a bad thing. There are a lot of people in this market that normally wouldn't be but they are searching for yield because they can't get it anywhere else. When, not if but when interest rates rise you will see a mass exit from the market and a lot of people, particularly older people will go back to their safe savings accounts and CD's. While this doesn't spell good things for the stock market itself it can boost things like consumer confidence, etc.

HonestChieffan
08-05-2011, 04:52 PM
Not only the Dow but a silent bank run has begun....starting in Greece.
And don't think it can't happen here....many banks continue to fail here as well.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/aug/01/greece-panic-change


If a bank run happens and no one is there, is it silent?

Dave Lane
08-05-2011, 05:07 PM
Are we going to have a petey tape parade if the dow hits 20,000 and this thread has 38,000,000 posts by pete?

BucEyedPea
08-05-2011, 05:17 PM
If a bank run happens and no one is there, is it silent?

Not if it were transacted in gold....there would be a clinking noise. :harumph:

KC native
08-05-2011, 07:42 PM
This is correct. Ironically Native disagrees but yes, policies, rules and regulations do have an impact on job growth.

You are incorrectly stating my position. For the most part, government actions have little to no effect on the economy. There are situations where that isn't true and I've stated this before.

ChiefsandO'sfan
08-08-2011, 12:27 PM
Down 540 today so far

HonestChieffan
08-08-2011, 12:31 PM
The Speech by O'Downgrade sure helped

ChiTown
08-08-2011, 12:47 PM
The Speech by O'Downgrade sure helped

Seriously, I wish he would just STFU already and start packing his shit up. He is a fucking disgrace as a leader.

ChiefsandO'sfan
08-08-2011, 01:49 PM
-605

petegz28
08-08-2011, 01:51 PM
SP500 down 74. That's 740 Down points. :facepalm:

Iowanian
08-08-2011, 01:52 PM
The good news is, Obaba's speech and leadership has sparked today's drop, and remington ammunition stocks will go up due to all of the suicides.

That may be his master plan to save SS.

BigChiefFan
08-08-2011, 02:00 PM
I pulled out of it completely today. I took what little profit was left because I couldn't stomach seeing it drop anymore.

Stewie
08-08-2011, 02:01 PM
Tomorrow the Federal Open Market Committee meets. I'd like to be a fly on the wall in that room. I'm sure they'll discuss QE3 or Rescue4 or Stimulus5 or whatever. If implemented/hinted at/suggested/Fed tea leaf reading, etc., watch a quick turnaround in the market.

Calcountry
08-08-2011, 06:54 PM
Tomorrow the Federal Open Market Committee meets. I'd like to be a fly on the wall in that room. I'm sure they'll discuss QE3 or Rescue4 or Stimulus5 or whatever. If implemented/hinted at/suggested/Fed tea leaf reading, etc., watch a quick turnaround in the market.Load up on real non perishable things, they will never be this cheap again.

ChiefsandO'sfan
08-08-2011, 08:05 PM
http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures/


allready down 278 going into tomorrow

Dave Lane
08-08-2011, 08:11 PM
BFD if the Dow hits 3000 PM me and I might start looking at stocks again. When I was playing the market a lot it was at 800. Till then I could care less, stuff is still dramatically over priced.

petegz28
08-08-2011, 08:27 PM
Asian markets getting tagged on the chin right now

dirk digler
08-08-2011, 08:37 PM
It is interesting to me that the one thing S&P downgraded actually did pretty well today yet the market takes a hit.

Listening to some CEO's on CNN they are saying this is mostly irrational fear. Hopefully everyone will calm down and not sell off.

petegz28
08-08-2011, 08:53 PM
It is interesting to me that the one thing S&P downgraded actually did pretty well today yet the market takes a hit.

Listening to some CEO's on CNN they are saying this is mostly irrational fear. Hopefully everyone will calm down and not sell off.

The market is taking a hit for reasons other than the SP downgrade. There is a global economic slow down on the horizon. We are on the brink of a double-dip recession. Europe is in all kinds of debt trouble. We are in all kinds of debt trouble. Jobs are not being created. Consumer confidence is down. Manufacturing is down. Home prices are down.

There are a shitload of reasons for this market to be taking a dive.

petegz28
08-08-2011, 09:13 PM
JFC, gold is on a tear...up another $32 in overnight trading.

dirk digler
08-08-2011, 09:19 PM
The market is taking a hit for reasons other than the SP downgrade. There is a global economic slow down on the horizon. We are on the brink of a double-dip recession. Europe is in all kinds of debt trouble. We are in all kinds of debt trouble. Jobs are not being created. Consumer confidence is down. Manufacturing is down. Home prices are down.

There are a shitload of reasons for this market to be taking a dive.

None of that is really new though. I think a lot of this is people are just freaking out but I could be wrong.

petegz28
08-08-2011, 09:33 PM
None of that is really new though. I think a lot of this is people are just freaking out but I could be wrong.

Most likely they are. You have to remember, the markets are 90% emotion, 10% fact. Nothing makes a person become emoitonal easier than their money.

BIG_DADDY
08-08-2011, 09:39 PM
Love that volatility.

petegz28
08-09-2011, 07:26 AM
Market looking to open up 180 or so. How much you want to bet it gets sold into?

jiveturkey
08-09-2011, 07:32 AM
Market looking to open up 180 or so. How much you want to bet it gets sold into?
I'd bet that there are still a handful of bad days ahead of us over the next couple of weeks.

After that I'll look into doing a little shopping.

petegz28
08-09-2011, 01:05 PM
Market now down 41. Was up 200. The Ben Brenank spoke and all hope was ersaed. Hate it when I'm right.

King_Chief_Fan
08-09-2011, 01:08 PM
None of that is really new though. I think a lot of this is people are just freaking out but I could be wrong.

losing 300k in 15 days has a way of making one freak out.

Halfcan
08-09-2011, 01:27 PM
Somehow it is all Obama's fault-lol

eazyb81
08-09-2011, 02:01 PM
Market now down 41. Was up 200. The Ben Brenank spoke and all hope was ersaed. Hate it when I'm right.

and now you are wrong.

Stewie
08-09-2011, 02:05 PM
This, folks, is known as painting the tape. A complete turnaround and goose the markets by gazillion$ in 90 minutes. That was a nice coordinated effort. These are not free markets, but a casino that's manipulated.

sd4chiefs
08-09-2011, 02:08 PM
Up 429 for the day. I hate this crazy up and down sh*t.

sd4chiefs
08-09-2011, 02:14 PM
I think I am going to invest in aluminum bats

http://money.cnn.com/2011/08/09/technology/amazon_riot/index.htm?source=cnn_bin&hpt=hp_bn3

eazyb81
08-09-2011, 02:16 PM
This, folks, is known as painting the tape. A complete turnaround and goose the markets by gazillion$ in 90 minutes. That was a nice coordinated effort. These are not free markets, but a casino that's manipulated.

and it will continue happening until the markets comply. The Fed is all in at this point on QE3 and I expect it to be a doozy.

I'm more surprised that gold dipped a bit near the close.

Stewie
08-09-2011, 02:22 PM
I'm more surprised that gold dipped a bit near the close.

The NY Globex is very thinly traded (where the drop occurred). When gold started to gain traction in the early 2000s goldbugs were pissed that the closing gold price was changed from the NYMEX close to the Globex close. The Globex is much easier to manipulate. The good thing is the market rarely follows the Globex trend.

Pitt Gorilla
08-09-2011, 02:42 PM
Market now down 41. Was up 200. The Ben Brenank spoke and all hope was ersaed. Hate it when I'm right.How do you feel when you're wrong?

Amnorix
08-09-2011, 02:54 PM
Market now down 41. Was up 200. The Ben Brenank spoke and all hope was ersaed. Hate it when I'm right.


Then you must be ecstatic...

Chief Henry
08-09-2011, 03:32 PM
and it will continue happening until the markets comply. The Fed is all in at this point on QE3 and I expect it to be a doozy.





:huh:

petegz28
08-09-2011, 04:07 PM
and now you are wrong.

Sure am. That came out of no where.

petegz28
08-09-2011, 04:08 PM
How do you feel when you're wrong?

Better than you look :p

Saul Good
08-18-2011, 08:27 AM
-450 so far this morning

Saul Good
08-19-2011, 07:21 AM
...and here we go...

petegz28
08-19-2011, 07:48 AM
...and here we go...

I might cover some of my short position heading into the weekend