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View Full Version : General Politics Is Obama "One and Done""? Who will win 2012?


chris
08-06-2011, 01:48 PM
With the S&P's, and others, downgrades...is the economy going to recover in time for the election?

People vote with their pocket books.

Is this the beginning of the end?

chris
08-06-2011, 01:51 PM
Scary times, my friends.

SNR
08-06-2011, 01:54 PM
http://i378.photobucket.com/albums/oo223/phantomspiker/COOL-STORY-BRO-LET-ME-CALL-UP-MY-BUDDY-WHOS-AN-EXPERT-ON-COOL-STORIES.jpg

KILLER_CLOWN
08-06-2011, 02:28 PM
Rigged Poll, Rigged Thread fails as bad as Obama.

Taco John
08-06-2011, 02:31 PM
I think Obama has a good shot still. But it's not the slam dunk I thought it was even 30 days ago.

The pivotal moment will come when the Bush tax cuts expire. His base is adamant about him shutting them down - he won't have a choice. What he knows that his base doesn't seem to understand is that included in the "Bush tax cuts" are the increased child tax credit, the reduction of the marriage penalty, and the lowering of the margin of the bottom tiers of the marginal tax rates (where the lowest went from 15% to 10%). Everybody's taxes go up immediately when those expire.

So Obama goes into 2012 having raised everybody's taxes. That's going to be tough on his campaign.

He, of course, is going to hit the campaign trail preaching about cutting taxes for the middle class, while increasing them on the rich. That message won't be enough. He'll need a plan for recovery. It will need to be a spending plan - that's all Democrats know how to do. He will have to hit the campaign trail talking about the wonders of a second stimulus. That's going to be a tough sell in this environment.

On the other hand, the Republicans will be split between Ron Paul, and whoever they put up against Ron Paul. It will be a civil war in the Republican party. The Tea Partiers voting for Ron Paul will be just as obstinate as they were in the debt talks. It's very believable to me that Obama could win a second term.

Calcountry
08-06-2011, 02:35 PM
I think Obama has a good shot still. But it's not the slam dunk I thought it was even 30 days ago.

The pivotal moment will come when the Bush tax cuts expire. His base is adamant about him shutting them down - he won't have a choice. What he knows that his base doesn't seem to understand is that included in the "Bush tax cuts" are the increased child tax credit, the reduction of the marriage penalty, and the lowering of the margin of the bottom tiers of the marginal tax rates (where the lowest went from 15% to 10%). Everybody's taxes go up immediately when those expire.

So Obama goes into 2012 having raised everybody's taxes. That's going to be tough on his campaign.

He, of course, is going to hit the campaign trail preaching about cutting taxes for the middle class, while increasing them on the rich. That message won't be enough. He'll need a plan for recovery. It will need to be a spending plan - that's all Democrats know how to do. He will have to hit the campaign trail talking about the wonders of a second stimulus. That's going to be a tough sell in this environment.

On the other hand, the Republicans will be split between Ron Paul, and whoever they put up against Ron Paul. It will be a civil war in the Republican party. The Tea Partiers voting for Ron Paul will be just as obstinate as they were in the debt talks. It's very believable to me that Obama could win a second term.Half way there, ahhhh living on a prayer, take my hand, we'll make it a swear.

BOHICA!!!. That is what he is going to run on.

orange
08-06-2011, 02:38 PM
So Obama goes into 2012 having raised everybody's taxes. That's going to be tough on his campaign.


Except that they expire on Jan. 1, 2013. Not 2012.

[edit] Treasure this post. It's my 10,000th.

http://animationsa2z.com/attachments/Image/monkey/monkey27.gif

Calcountry
08-06-2011, 02:59 PM
Except that they expire on Jan. 1, 2013. Not 2012.

[edit] Treasure this post. It's my 10,000th.

http://animationsa2z.com/attachments/Image/monkey/monkey27.gifSo this will be a campaign issue in 2012, Obama, like Mondale, will promise to raise your taxes if elected. Do you know how that turned out?

patteeu
08-06-2011, 03:15 PM
I think Obama has a good shot still. But it's not the slam dunk I thought it was even 30 days ago.

The pivotal moment will come when the Bush tax cuts expire. His base is adamant about him shutting them down - he won't have a choice. What he knows that his base doesn't seem to understand is that included in the "Bush tax cuts" are the increased child tax credit, the reduction of the marriage penalty, and the lowering of the margin of the bottom tiers of the marginal tax rates (where the lowest went from 15% to 10%). Everybody's taxes go up immediately when those expire.

So Obama goes into 2012 having raised everybody's taxes. That's going to be tough on his campaign.

He, of course, is going to hit the campaign trail preaching about cutting taxes for the middle class, while increasing them on the rich. That message won't be enough. He'll need a plan for recovery. It will need to be a spending plan - that's all Democrats know how to do. He will have to hit the campaign trail talking about the wonders of a second stimulus. That's going to be a tough sell in this environment.

On the other hand, the Republicans will be split between Ron Paul, and whoever they put up against Ron Paul. It will be a civil war in the Republican party. The Tea Partiers voting for Ron Paul will be just as obstinate as they were in the debt talks. It's very believable to me that Obama could win a second term.

Obama will be arguing for an extension of the middle/lower class cuts that you mention. The questions are (a) whether or not the Republicans will stick to the all or nothing position and (b) if they do will Obama be able to convince those middle and lower class voters that it's the Republicans who forced their taxes to go up?

patteeu
08-06-2011, 03:16 PM
My money right now would be on Romney. I think this economic environment is tailor-made for his campaign. However, he'll only beat Obama if he can find a way to get the Republican nomination which remains questionable, IMO.

banyon
08-06-2011, 03:26 PM
I don't see how Obama generates any enthusiasm from his support base for 2012 given how he's conducted himself.

That's also why the Republicans won so many seats in 2010, the people on the left could already see that it was the same old politics as usual from the Dems, so who cares.

Bewbies
08-06-2011, 03:44 PM
The only way Obama is going to get a 2nd term is for a 3rd viable candidate to throw their hat in the ring and Obama could win with 41% of the vote.

Cannibal
08-06-2011, 04:34 PM
I don't think Obama deserves to win. But I think he will by default, especially when the Republican's nominate a nut job like Bachman.

patteeu
08-06-2011, 04:36 PM
I don't think Obama deserves to win. But I think he will by default, especially when the Republican's nominate a nut job like Bachman.

As much as I like Bachmann, I don't think she has a chance to get the nomination.

Taco John
08-06-2011, 04:51 PM
Except that they expire on Jan. 1, 2013. Not 2012.

[edit] Treasure this post. It's my 10,000th.

http://animationsa2z.com/attachments/Image/monkey/monkey27.gif

My mistake. I don't think it changes the calculus all that much though. It complicates Obama's message a little.

Glad to be corrected in your 10,000th post...

NaptownChief
08-06-2011, 05:03 PM
I think it is possible that BHO could not even get the Dem nomination. Going to be tough to debate anyone after the mess that has been created on his watch.

"You are such a great leader that you got us downgraded"

BHO:

"Uhhhh S&P is racist"

seriously can defend this.

Calcountry
08-06-2011, 05:09 PM
My money right now would be on Romney. I think this economic environment is tailor-made for his campaign. However, he'll only beat Obama if he can find a way to get the Republican nomination which remains questionable, IMO.Right now, we don't need a nice guy, we need a tough sonofabitch.

Calcountry
08-06-2011, 05:14 PM
I think it is possible that BHO could not even get the Dem nomination. Going to be tough to debate anyone after the mess that has been created on his watch.

"You are such a great leader that you got us downgraded"

BHO:

"Uhhhh S&P is racist"

seriously can defend this.I believe I was the first to broach the possibility 2 years ago. I was greeted with this LMAO and this :LOL:. Too bad for the country that this man was elected now isn't it?

I remember a lot of Democrats didn't want him in the primaries, oh yeah, it was a real shitter for the party, well now they have to live with the results and they aren't pretty.

Remember, LBJ didn't run for a second term of his own.

vailpass
08-06-2011, 05:20 PM
Except that they expire on Jan. 1, 2013. Not 2012.

[edit] Treasure this post. It's my 10,000th.

http://animationsa2z.com/attachments/Image/monkey/monkey27.gif

That's the most flattering picture of Michelle I've ever seen.Must be touched up.

BucEyedPea
08-06-2011, 05:20 PM
Hmmmm....I don't predict such things but Trump had an unusual viewpoint on Greta's show last night. He said with the debt deal the Republicans just re-elected Obama. They handed to him.

SNR
08-06-2011, 05:37 PM
Except that they expire on Jan. 1, 2013. Not 2012.

[edit] Treasure this post. It's my 10,000th.

http://animationsa2z.com/attachments/Image/monkey/monkey27.gifCongrats. Your penis just got bigger.

patteeu
08-06-2011, 05:44 PM
Right now, we don't need a nice guy, we need a tough sonofabitch.

Why? If a Republican wins, he's pretty likely to have a Republican controlled House and Senate. In that case we won't need a tough guy as much as we'll need a guy who is serious about fixing the mess that Obama made. You might object to the possibility that Romney won't go as far as others at hacking away at big government, but I don't think his "nice guy" persona is a knock against him in this case. I'll tell you one thing though... he won't be a guy who leads from behind like the current occupant.

patteeu
08-06-2011, 05:44 PM
Hmmmm....I don't predict such things but Trump had an unusual viewpoint on Greta's show last night. He said with the debt deal the Republicans just re-elected Obama. They handed to him.

He also said he could win the presidency if he wanted to.

BucEyedPea
08-06-2011, 05:52 PM
He also said he could win the presidency if he wanted to.
Except he had the smarts to drop out too. Besides, that has no correlation to what he said here. Nor does it make all his opinions invalid.

You need to relax and just see it as an unusual view. Geezaz!

HolyHandgernade
08-06-2011, 05:53 PM
I don't see how Obama generates any enthusiasm from his support base for 2012 given how he's conducted himself.

That's also why the Republicans won so many seats in 2010, the people on the left could already see that it was the same old politics as usual from the Dems, so who cares.

Dems are not happy with Obama, but they shudder at the thought of another Reb candidate. It hasn't been that long, and yeah, you guys were that bad. Also, despite the circle jerk that goes on here, most Dems still put the majority of our situation on the Rebs. and their recent antics in this whole mess in Congress has not helped their position or reputation much.

Granted, Obama benefits from our general aftertaste of Reb bullshite. I would actually consider voting for another candidate if a viable one presented himself, even if he was Reb. But, that aint gonna happen and I will vote against the Republicans and most Dems will do the same.

Once again, it will come down to whom the swing voters blame or fear the most. I'm not so sure the Reb base (outside of the T-Partiers who are just looney most of the time anyway) is any more energized after this latest fiasco.

BucEyedPea
08-06-2011, 05:55 PM
Dems are not happy with Obama, but they shudder at the thought of another Reb candidate.

I shudder at the thought of one party rule again—no matter the party.

HolyHandgernade
08-06-2011, 05:59 PM
I shudder at the thought of one party rule again—no matter the party.

This country is too polarized for there to be anything close to one party domination. Besides, if the Dems actually regained the majority, they would still lack the stones to actually throw their weight around. Probably the one thing I miss about being a Reb, you could actually count (most of the time) on actually pushing the stated agenda. I'm at a loss for what the Dems stand for and the only reason I know I stand closer to them is because the Reb have stretched the meaning of conservative right to a position I didn't know actually existed.

HonestChieffan
08-06-2011, 07:00 PM
The next ten days will sink Obama.

HonestChieffan
08-06-2011, 07:11 PM
http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-YEA73qljnpU/Tj0aSXCoB3I/AAAAAAAAzUg/vm-FvdE-bx0/s400/theo5.jpg

mlyonsd
08-06-2011, 08:44 PM
Until Christie enters Obama has a chance.

Dylan
08-06-2011, 09:03 PM
Obama will soon be nothing but an embarrassing footnote in political history.

patteeu
08-07-2011, 12:03 AM
Obama will soon be nothing but an embarrassing footnote in political history.

I'm going to draw a line through his footnote with a Sharpie in my history book. ;)