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View Full Version : U.S. Issues Jobs: Worse than you think


KILLER_CLOWN
08-08-2011, 06:32 PM
By Chris Isidore @CNNMoney August 8, 2011: 3:50 PM ET

http://i2.cdn.turner.com/money/2011/08/08/news/economy/unemployment_jobs/chart-employment.top.gif

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- The U.S. labor force is shrinking, as more Americans are giving up hope.

Last month, only 58.1% of Americans age 16 and over were employed, a significant drop from before the recession and the lowest since 1983.

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That's especially worrisome to economists, who say a steady increase in those dropping out of the work force and not being counted in the unemployment rate is disguising just how bad the labor market really is.

"People are dropping out of labor force for all types of reasons," said Robert Brusca of FAO Economics. "And it's not a good trend. A good part of the wealth of a nation has to do with the proportion of population that works."

Some economists say that the employment-population ratio, or "e-pop," is a more accurate snapshot of the labor market than the unemployment rate, which fell to 9.1% last month from 10.1% in October 2009.

"When we have a time when the labor force is not growing normally, e-pop provides the cleanest assessment of what is going on in the labor market," said Heidi Shierholz, a labor economist with the Employment Policy Institute, a liberal think tank. "What you see is from '07 to '09 -- it fell off a cliff, and it hasn't recovered since then."
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While demographic factors like baby boomers reaching retirement age and younger people staying in school longer are playing a role, Shierholz said, the economy is the biggest driver.

Fewer Americans are working today than in recent decades because of the growing number of discouraged job seekers.

The Labor Department estimates that there are 6.6 million people who want a job but have left the labor force for one reason or another. That's the highest reading in 17 years, and an increase of 1.9 million since the start of the recession.

"That's a tremendous loss of human capital," said John Silvia, chief economist for Well Fargo Securities. "That means that the unemployment rate, even at 9.1%, is not as good as it seems."

Many of the unemployed are getting various forms of government support, like disability benefits and unemployment insurance. But some of those programs are masking the extent of the problem.
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For example, collecting unemployment gives the jobless a reason to keep applying, which can boost the number of workers looking for jobs. But once they've exhausted their benefits, they have little incentive to keep looking and suddenly fall off the rolls.

Disability benefits have a similar effect. In a good economy, workers with health problems might remain in the labor force and continue to look for work. But with few jobs available, the disability program gives them a reason to drop out of the workforce.

The result is a shrinking pool of workers that isn't keeping pace with population growth.

"If anything, we're likely to continue to see this ratio of those in the labor force go down further," said Gad Levanon, associate director of macroeconomic research at The Conference Board.

http://money.cnn.com/2011/08/08/news/economy/unemployment_jobs/

BucEyedPea
08-08-2011, 06:33 PM
Great....I was planning on going back to work...and now this.

Calcountry
08-08-2011, 06:46 PM
Great....I was planning on going back to work...and now this.just leave that job on the table for one of Obo's stooges.

BucEyedPea
08-08-2011, 06:48 PM
just leave that job on the table for one of Obo's stooges.

My kid is starting college and I'm gonna have to work again. I don't need much for it as she has a couple of scholarships but they've been raising tuition in Florida universities 15% per year during this economy.

Calcountry
08-08-2011, 06:49 PM
My kid is starting college and I'm gonna have to work again. I don't need much for it as she has a couple of scholarships but they've been raising tuition in Florida universities 15% per year during this economy.I hate big college.

BucEyedPea
08-08-2011, 06:55 PM
I hate big college.

Big college little college what's the difference? I heard Gov Scott balanced our budget though. I don't mind some increases it was too low actually but not every year during this economy. I just don't want to start her out in life with debt slavery like so many of them. I last worked fall of 2009 but I left on my own.

Calcountry
08-08-2011, 07:02 PM
Big college little college what's the difference? I heard Gov Scott balanced our budget though. I don't mind some increases it was too low actually but not every year during this economy. I just don't want to start her out in life with debt slavery like so many of them. I last worked fall of 2009 but I left on my own.As in, I hate big oil, I hate big pharm, I hate big (let the variable be x), I hate big (x).

Mr. Kotter
08-08-2011, 07:07 PM
The % of those employed is skewed by the larger numbers of retiring and early retiring boomers, and by the larger per centage of boomers relative to the yournger folks replacing them in the workforce (more 65 yr olds leaving jobs, with fewer 18 yr olds entering the workforce.) It's yet another reason the retirement age needs to be adjusted. Programs designed for 7-8 year retirements that are now having to fund 20 years of retirement are one of the major reasons for our economic issues.

A much more accurate number would be the % of those employed, between the ages of 18 and 65. A significant and sustained decrease in that number would be much more meaningful.

My understanding is THAT number has not experienced nearly as marked of a decline.

BucEyedPea
08-08-2011, 07:13 PM
Plus it's 16% for blacks.

KILLER_CLOWN
08-08-2011, 07:14 PM
As in, I hate big oil, I hate big pharm, I hate big (let the variable be x), I hate big (x).

The word you're looking for is Edumacation.

Mr. Kotter
08-08-2011, 07:17 PM
Plus it's 16% for blacks.

The rate of unemployment for blacks is historically about 2-1 compared to the overall rate (especially in recessions,) and it is much more to do with socio-economic factors rather than race (ie, poor whites and hispanics in similar socio-economic circumstances experience similar unemployment rates.)

Urban poor (not just blacks) are the usually the last to be hired, and the first to be fired.

Saul Good
08-08-2011, 09:00 PM
The % of those employed is skewed by the larger numbers of retiring and early retiring boomers, and by the larger per centage of boomers relative to the yournger folks replacing them in the workforce (more 65 yr olds leaving jobs, with fewer 18 yr olds entering the workforce.) It's yet another reason the retirement age needs to be adjusted. Programs designed for 7-8 year retirements that are now having to fund 20 years of retirement are one of the major reasons for our economic issues.

A much more accurate number would be the % of those employed, between the ages of 18 and 65. A significant and sustained decrease in that number would be much more meaningful.

My understanding is THAT number has not experienced nearly as marked of a decline.

What the fuck are you talking about? The retirement age is going UP, not down. If you said that people are living longer, that would hold a tiny bit of water, but saying that people are retiring early at an increased is patently false.

Then, you go on to say that fewer 18 year olds are replacing them. If there are fewer 18 year olds, that would help these numbers, not hurt them.

Your "understanding" is based on your own wishful thinking.

Mr. Kotter
08-08-2011, 09:19 PM
What the **** are you talking about? The retirement age is going UP, not down. If you said that people are living longer, that would hold a tiny bit of water, but saying that people are retiring early at an increased is patently false.

Then, you go on to say that fewer 18 year olds are replacing them. If there are fewer 18 year olds, that would help these numbers, not hurt them.

Your "understanding" is based on your own wishful thinking.

Your understanding of simple math is what is appalling. Retirement age, according to Social Security, is....technically, going up; however, MORE boomers than any previous generation are retiring EARLY. Do your homework; it's common knowledge. Coupled with the fact that people are living 3-5 yrs longer, on average, than folks even two decades ago, it makes for a double-hit on retirement programs --even more of a burden for tax-paying citizens.

Fewer 18 yr olds replacing retirees, reduces the total pool of young employables, yes; HOWEVER, it also reduces the pool of those, currently, contributing to Social Security and REVENUES--which means fewer and fewer people, funding benefits for longer and longer for the many Boomers--especially those retiring "early."

Considerably less money "IN," while simultaneously extracting more and more "OUT" in 'benefits'....is a large reason for the current federal financial conundrum. That is simple math, man; if you don't understand that, I don't know what to say.

ROYC75
08-08-2011, 09:56 PM
Obama rant:

Jobs?
JOBS?
DON'T TALK ABOUT JOBS! ARE YOU KIDDING ME? JOBS?

We got more spending we need to do first!


Jobs ? :shake:

We

jiveturkey
08-09-2011, 07:21 AM
Your understanding of simple math is what is appalling. Retirement age, according to Social Security, is....technically, going up; however, MORE boomers than any previous generation are retiring EARLY. Do your homework; it's common knowledge. Coupled with the fact that people are living 3-5 yrs longer, on average, than folks even two decades ago, it makes for a double-hit on retirement programs --even more of a burden for tax-paying citizens.

Fewer 18 yr olds replacing retirees, reduces the total pool of young employables, yes; HOWEVER, it also reduces the pool of those, currently, contributing to Social Security and REVENUES--which means fewer and fewer people, funding benefits for longer and longer for the many Boomers--especially those retiring "early."

Considerably less money "IN," while simultaneously extracting more and more "OUT" in 'benefits'....is a large reason for the current federal financial conundrum. That is simple math, man; if you don't understand that, I don't know what to say.

He's actually right. I work in employment and we've been hearing about this for the last couple of years. Finding real talent is a possible hurdle to companies in the coming decade because of this.

What's happened recently is that some boomers are sticking around longer than they had planned due to the shit storm we've been in for the last 3 years or so. Others have actually come out of retirement.

Either way they're simply delaying a change in the depth of the talent pool.

A small percentage of our current outsourcing is also tied to this. Poor education is causing companies to look overseas for engineers and accounting/finance types instead of just IT and manufacturing. This isn't because they're cheaper it's because they're more skilled.

FishingRod
08-09-2011, 09:24 AM
"For example, collecting unemployment gives the jobless a reason to keep applying, which can boost the number of workers looking for jobs. But once they've exhausted their benefits, they have little incentive to keep looking and suddenly fall off the rolls."

Can anyone explain the logic of this to me? So my free money is gone, NOW I am going to quit looking for a job. WTF?

mlyonsd
08-09-2011, 09:27 AM
"For example, collecting unemployment gives the jobless a reason to keep applying, which can boost the number of workers looking for jobs. But once they've exhausted their benefits, they have little incentive to keep looking and suddenly fall off the rolls."

Can anyone explain the logic of this to me? So my free money is gone, NOW I am going to quit looking for a job. WTF?I think it goes they have to actively apply for jobs to receive unemployment benefits. Once those benefits run out there is no need to apply for jobs unless they really want one.

Just a guess there because I've been on a payroll for 30+ years.

FishingRod
08-09-2011, 09:31 AM
OK I “think” I get it. Once you can no longer draw unemployment you don’t count as someone that does not have a job. Something like that?

Jaric
08-09-2011, 09:38 AM
OK I “think” I get it. Once you can no longer draw unemployment you don’t count as someone that does not have a job. Something like that?

Yep. That homeless guy who hasn't worked since his paper route when he was 10 is not actually unemployed.

BucEyedPea
08-09-2011, 09:45 AM
"America makes prodigious mistakes, America has colossal faults, but one thing cannot be denied: America is always on the move. She may be going to Hell, of course, but at least she isn't standing still." ~ e. e. cummings