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KILLER_CLOWN
08-13-2011, 04:57 PM
The PC is dead, claims IBM chief tech officer on 30th anniversary of home computer launch

By Oliver Pickup

Last updated at 4:28 PM on 12th August 2011

Claims: Dr Mark Dean, a chief engineer at IBM, believes that the personal computer is now dead

An IBM chief technical engineer has sparked controversy after claiming that the personal computer - which he helped design - is dead.

Dr Mark Dean, who was one of a dozen men to pioneer the first IBM PC - released exactly 30 years ago today - believes that the tablet is the tool of today, but not necessarily tomorrow.

Further, the future of computer will revolve around social interaction and the ideas which are spawned from those communications.

The 54-year-old, born in Jefferson City, Tennessee, pushed home the idea and said on a blog post that the computers should be discarded on the scrap heap, like typewriters or vinyl.

'While PCs will continue to be much-used devices,' wrote Dr Dean on A Smarter Planet, 'they’re no longer at the leading edge of computing.

'They’re going the way of the vacuum tube, typewriter, vinyl records ... and incandescent light bulbs.

'I, personally, have moved beyond the PC as well. My primary computer now is a tablet.

'PCs are being replaced at the center [sic] of computing not by another type of device - though there’s plenty of excitement about smart phones and tablets - but by new ideas about the role that computing can play in progress.

'These days, it’s becoming clear that innovation flourishes best not on devices but in the social spaces between them, where people and ideas meet and interact.

'It is there that computing can have the most powerful impact on economy, society and people’s lives.'

IBM's 5150 was released on August 12, 1981, and Dr Dean thought that the technology would never be outdated in his lifetime.

It was used as a model for many other companies who produced personal computers after IBM, which is celebrating its 100th anniversary this year.

And Dr Dean now owns a third of the patents for that original PC

However, Dr Dean wrote that his company were trail-blazers with their 30-year-old computer, and that other brands have learned so much from that technology, so much so that the PC as we know it has been completely leap-frogged.

In addition, he believes that IBM can now feel vindicated that they sold off their PC technology in 2005 to Lenovo.

He wrote: 'When I helped design the PC, I didn’t think I’d live long enough to witness its decline.

'Little did we expect to create an industry that ultimately peaked at more than 300 million unit sales per year.

'I’m proud that I was one of a dozen IBM engineers who designed the first machine and was fortunate to have lead subsequent IBM PC designs through the 1980s.

'While many in the tech industry questioned IBM’s decision to exit the business at the time, it’s now clear that our company was in the vanguard of the post-PC era.

'The story of IBM’s involvement in the PC market and foray into the post-PC era illustrates one of the core traits of our company: we’re always on the lookout for the next big thing.'

Dr Dean's comments echoed those made by engineer Ray Ozzie last October, after he left computing giants Microsoft.

He warned that companies needed to understand where computing is heading and embrace 'that which is technologically inevitable'.

And at the unveiling of Apple's iPad2 in March CEO Steve Jobs said: 'These are post-PC devices that need to be easier to use than a PC, more intuitive.

'The hardware and software need to intertwine more than they do on a PC.'

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-2025328/IBM-chief-Dr-Mark-Dean-The-PC-dead.html#ixzz1UwsPqsax


My PC still seems to be working great. ;)
Let the Derpfest begin.

keg in kc
08-13-2011, 05:05 PM
Eventually we'll have direct brain interface with The Cloud™.

Resistance is futile.

Deberg_1990
08-13-2011, 05:21 PM
heh, its not dead, but its not hard to see that its on its last leg as we know it. Certainly for the home and personal use market.

KILLER_CLOWN
08-13-2011, 05:38 PM
heh, its not dead, but its not hard to see that its on its last leg as we know it. Certainly for the home and personal use market.

I'll never give up my home machine, nothing like having the beast with a 40" monitor and all the creature comforts. On the opposite side i said the same thing about DOS.

Count Alex's Wins
08-13-2011, 05:59 PM
heh, its not dead, but its not hard to see that its on its last leg as we know it. Certainly for the home and personal use market.

Wrong.

Until I see a tablet or a reasonably priced laptop with six cores and a $200 video card inside the PC is far from dead.

Deberg_1990
08-13-2011, 06:01 PM
Wrong.

Until I see a tablet or a reasonably priced laptop with six cores and a $200 video card inside the PC is far from dead.

You guys are a "niche" market now or soon will be. I didn't say dead anyways.

Count Alex's Wins
08-13-2011, 06:10 PM
You said the PC market is on it's last legs...it's not. It's still far greater than the market for things like tablets.

PC gaming is a huge business. Huge.

The PC Gaming Alliance have released some figures ahead of their GDC report, showing that the PC gaming market grew by 20% from 2009 to 2010, taking $16.2 billion in revenue. The report also predicts that the PC games market will continue to grow, and could hit profits of $23 billion in a few years time.

The figures come from the PC Gaming Alliance’s annual Horizon report, put together by market research company DFC Intelligence to assess the strength of the PC market. They pick out China as the fastest growing market for PC gaming, producing a whopping $4.8 billion in revenue last year. PC games sales in Korea, Japan, US, UK and Germany also grew by 19%, making $7.3 in profits in 2010.

Digital distribution is the reason given for the explosion in growth. Selling digitally bypasses the cut taken by high street retailers, allowing developers and publishers to take more direct profits. The report says that the PC gaming market will continue to grow, driven by digital distribution, and could be worth $23 billion by 2014. the report also predicts that Steam will face tough competition from other contenders in the near future.

Deberg_1990
08-13-2011, 06:29 PM
You said the PC market is on it's last legs...it's not. It's still far greater than the market for things like tablets.

PC gaming is a huge business. Huge.

When i said niche, yes i meant PC gaming some, but also the guys like you who like to tinker and build their own PC's. The majority dont care about video cards, RAM, Motherboards and processors. They care about being mobile and a simple all in one design thats easy to learn and use. PC gaming is still out there of course, but we all know that market has been slimmed as well due to console systems and tablet, smartphone apps.

Im not saying guys like you will ever go away completely, just smaller in numbers.

Count Alex's Wins
08-13-2011, 06:35 PM
Tablet and smartphone gaming is a joke, dude.

mnchiefsguy
08-13-2011, 06:39 PM
This may be the beginning of the end of the PC...but just barely. Tablets have a long way to go before they are the top dog.

KCTitus
08-13-2011, 07:08 PM
Im sorry...tablets and social feeds are just gay.

cdcox
08-13-2011, 07:09 PM
I've used a laptop for years, but I have no desire to go smaller on the screen or the keyboard. The laptop is the perfect balance between portability, computing power and human interface as far as I'm concerned.

BigRedChief
08-13-2011, 07:11 PM
heh, its not dead, but its not hard to see that its on its last leg as we know it. Certainly for the home and personal use market.Business desktop is going to die soon. At least as we have known the business desktop. I'm replacing 10K desktops with moniters and keyboards starting next month.

Deberg_1990
08-13-2011, 07:19 PM
Business desktop is going to die soon. At least as we have known the business desktop. I'm replacing 10K desktops with moniters and keyboards starting next month.

VM and cloud based apps?

morphius
08-13-2011, 07:21 PM
Business desktop is going to die soon. At least as we have known the business desktop. I'm replacing 10K desktops with moniters and keyboards starting next month.
So, people are really trying the thin client route again?

KCTitus
08-13-2011, 07:31 PM
Business desktop is going to die soon. At least as we have known the business desktop. I'm replacing 10K desktops with moniters and keyboards starting next month.

We manage 40k desktops/laptops...our Windows 7 roll out begins next year for the better part of 2 years and we're upgrading much of the equipment since it's 3-4 years old. We have messed with thin clients, Hosted VM's and other remote solutions, but its not there yet -- it wont run our primary apps.

phisherman
08-13-2011, 08:22 PM
to truly leverage VDI, the ideal situation is to buy WAY more infrastructure than you think you'll need.

Fish
08-13-2011, 09:14 PM
We manage 40k desktops/laptops...our Windows 7 roll out begins next year for the better part of 2 years and we're upgrading much of the equipment since it's 3-4 years old. We have messed with thin clients, Hosted VM's and other remote solutions, but its not there yet -- it wont run our primary apps.

It's there already. At work we have implemented just about any app used in a Corp environment and currently have them available for remote use. We've had it available for some time. Any Adobe app, every Microsoft app, countless statistical apps, engineering apps, even Apple apps. We now have a terabyte of RAM available for our multiple VMs.

We don't manage as many machines as you do. But it's been working great for us so far, and we have lots of plans for future expansion.

BigRedChief
08-13-2011, 09:40 PM
VM and cloud based apps?yep, working like a charm so far in the test group.

BigRedChief
08-13-2011, 09:51 PM
So, people are really trying the thin client route again?Done deal. We will be the 8th shop to do a 10K+ replacement of desktops this year.

Go check out VMware View. Real slick and easy. Users have a problem, any problem they just log off and log back in. Pools automatically replinish. All the apps and personalized settings are mapped to an ID that goes into the new VDI.

Molitoth
08-14-2011, 07:51 PM
We now have a terabyte of RAM available for our multiple VMs.

Nice!
We just got x2 new HP DL580 G7's which are great, but running 256GB ram atm. These are just in our local data center though, our Regional Data Center has like x40 of these.

BWillie
08-14-2011, 08:53 PM
The only thing I would do with a tablet is watch media and just do web surfing that doesn't require alot of typing.

jiveturkey
08-15-2011, 09:51 AM
Between my wife and I we have 1 PC, 1 laptop, 1 tablet and 2 smart phones.

I'd guess that 75% of what we do is on the tablet and smart phones.

The lap top gets the least use and I don't even take it with me when I travel now. The tablet can handle pretty much everything I need.

I doubt that the PC's will completely die off but I do see them decreasing in numbers (dramatically).

beach tribe
08-15-2011, 05:19 PM
I'll always have a nasty beast in the corner. Always.

Detoxing
08-15-2011, 05:50 PM
how difficult is it to whack it to Porn when using a tablet?

Otter
08-15-2011, 06:01 PM
I've been reading for about 10 years now but low and behold, the PC keeps growing. You'll never get the same gaming experience out of a console that you'll get on a PC.

If anything, consoles are slowing down. You could hook your $400 graphics card up to your 52" wall LCD and surround sound and play like nothing ever seen before in our lifetime.

Sorry, not going anywhere. Again.

Fruit Ninja
08-15-2011, 07:13 PM
I still use my desktop more then anything. I have a netbook, i use it when i feel lazy and lay down to watch tv, but mostly, im still at my desk.

BigRedChief
08-15-2011, 08:08 PM
I've been reading for about 10 years now but low and behold, the PC keeps growing. You'll never get the same gaming experience out of a console that you'll get on a PC.

If anything, consoles are slowing down. You could hook your $400 graphics card up to your 52" wall LCD and surround sound and play like nothing ever seen before in our lifetime.

Sorry, not going anywhere. Again.The business PC is going to die soon. The Pc will die soon after when a gamer can run their stuff from a laptop.

kysirsoze
08-15-2011, 08:47 PM
I need much more than a tablet can offer for editing purposes, but tablets have a lot of cool applications around the corner that will be fun and very useful. I can see how the tablet could overtake the PC market fairly quickly. Most people use their phones 10X more than their computer as it is.

Count Alex's Wins
08-16-2011, 12:37 AM
The business PC is going to die soon. The Pc will die soon after when a gamer can run their stuff from a laptop.

As long as the price comes down.

Gaming laptops are waaaaaaaaay too expensive, and I'm still going to want to hook that shit up to a monitor.

Oh, and it's kind of hard to upgrade a laptop.

So I disagree with your whole post, pretty much. Yeah.

kysirsoze
08-16-2011, 01:44 AM
As long as the price comes down.

Gaming laptops are waaaaaaaaay too expensive, and I'm still going to want to hook that shit up to a monitor.

Oh, and it's kind of hard to upgrade a laptop.

So I disagree with your whole post, pretty much. Yeah.


I wonder if computer companies will keep pushing development of their laptops until they are basically as powerful as their larger, more stationary counterparts. As far as monitors, I think more and more people will be using their TVs when they want something bigger than the laptop screen.

The upgrade thing is a good point, but I also wonder if it won't start becoming more like cars in the sense that they are intentionally designed to make them more difficult to work on yourself. (See Apple business model) Then they can force us to upgrade the whole damn thing for more money. What are we going to do? Use old computers??

Count Alex's Wins
08-16-2011, 01:52 AM
Except that TVs still don't offer the same viewing quality up close as a computer monitors....

I doubt that the upgrade market will go away anytime soon....just walk into a Fry's. Computer components galore.

Newegg is a site that basically thrives on selling computer parts.

None of this is changing anytime soon. Even Apple has moved away from proprietary hardware, at least somewhat, as their motherboards and chips can be found in PCs.

pr_capone
08-16-2011, 02:54 AM
They can take my "desktop" PC away from me when I'm dead and cold.

kysirsoze
08-16-2011, 03:08 AM
Except that TVs still don't offer the same viewing quality up close as a computer monitors....

I doubt that the upgrade market will go away anytime soon....just walk into a Fry's. Computer components galore.

Newegg is a site that basically thrives on selling computer parts.

None of this is changing anytime soon. Even Apple has moved away from proprietary hardware, at least somewhat, as their motherboards and chips can be found in PCs.

I guess "soon" is a relative term. Ultimately, I think traditional desktops will be phased out. I agree that it will take a long time, though. Much, much longer for the hardcore PC gamer crowd.

Otter
08-16-2011, 08:13 AM
The business PC is going to die soon. The Pc will die soon after when a gamer can run their stuff from a laptop.

Bushiness PCs will slowly be replaced by a thin client model and laptops.

Gaming from a laptop isn't the same as sitting at a desk with a detached 32" in monitor and beastly graphics card and PCs don't set your lap or couch on fire like a laptop with all that power and no ventilation.

I'm not sure what PCs have done to piss people off and why this argument won't die but gaming PCs aren't going anywhere for a long, long time.

There's nothing you can build that even comes remotely close yet it terms of graphics and speed. And you can't build a laptop easily, some people enjoy the whole build, customize and game experience and gaming on a laptop sucks.

Keep beating that drum for whatever reason. I highly doubt you're correct however in our lifetime.

NewChief
08-16-2011, 08:49 AM
Why won't micro projectors replace monitors when something bigger than a laptop screen is desired? Not necessarily on topic, but this video is pretty badass and might give some ideas of where we're headed:


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Buehler445
08-16-2011, 03:04 PM
For casual use, yeah, bit for heavy duty use, there is a long way to go IMO.

What the Fuck is a thin client?

loochy
08-16-2011, 03:34 PM
For casual use, yeah, bit for heavy duty use, there is a long way to go IMO.

What the Fuck is a thin client?

It's a tiny little computer with some ram, a video card, and a network card. It's basically a connection for a monitor, keyboard, and mouse. All of the computing happens on a central server.

Fish
08-16-2011, 03:35 PM
For casual use, yeah, bit for heavy duty use, there is a long way to go IMO.

What the Fuck is a thin client?

http://blog.htreasure.com/archives/49

beach tribe
08-16-2011, 05:00 PM
I wonder if computer companies will keep pushing development of their laptops until they are basically as powerful as their larger, more stationary counterparts. As far as monitors, I think more and more people will be using their TVs when they want something bigger than the laptop screen.

The upgrade thing is a good point, but I also wonder if it won't start becoming more like cars in the sense that they are intentionally designed to make them more difficult to work on yourself. (See Apple business model) Then they can force us to upgrade the whole damn thing for more money. What are we going to do? Use old computers??

You will always be able to build a rig that will smoke the latest laptop.
I certainly disagree that the PC is dead, and just read an article in either Wired or PC magazine that listed 2 things that will never die that people thought might.
#3 was the home telephone and
#1 was the PC. (desktop, montior, keyboard)

My Computer runs everything in my house. I don't see how anyone wouldn't want it the same way. It's my cablebox, stereo, dvr, home theater stytem...err...everything. It's big, bright, and bad as ****.

dirk digler
08-16-2011, 09:50 PM
The business PC is going to die soon. The Pc will die soon after when a gamer can run their stuff from a laptop.

I don't know about that. I certainitly believe business PC's will become less prevalent but I don't think they will completely go away. Where I work we have moved to a lot more thin clients but will never totally get away from desktops.

Also I am waiting for the VDI market to mature before I take a serious interest in it. But it seems you guys are jumping right in. I hope it works out good for you.

BigRedChief
08-16-2011, 10:08 PM
I don't know about that. I certainitly believe business PC's will become less prevalent but I don't think they will completely go away. Where I work we have moved to a lot more thin clients but will never totally get away from desktops.

Also I am waiting for the VDI market to mature before I take a serious interest in it. But it seems you guys are jumping right in. I hope it works out good for you.
Small shops will stay with pc's because of the cost to set up VDI's company wide.

We are ahead of the tech curve, we have to be. But even cautious retail shops will see the financial benefits of VDI's and convert. It's simple financial math. It's cheaper and easier to manage.

dirk digler
08-17-2011, 08:18 AM
Small shops will stay with pc's because of the cost to set up VDI's company wide.

We are ahead of the tech curve, we have to be. But even cautious retail shops will see the financial benefits of VDI's and convert. It's simple financial math. It's cheaper and easier to manage.

Is it really that much cheaper though? Business PC's prices have fallen so much that you can get a fairly high end PC for $500 with a monitor.

With VDI you still have to have a delivery device which probably runs around $400, throw in a monitor ($100), and OS license for VDI ($100 depending if you have SA or not) + VDA license ($100) and I don't see how it is cheaper.

I definitely can buy into the argument that VDI is cheaper to manage than traditional desktops so I would say that is where the cost savings is at.

Maybe I am wrong on this though. What are you guys using for thin clients?

BigRedChief
08-17-2011, 07:50 PM
Is it really that much cheaper though? Business PC's prices have fallen so much that you can get a fairly high end PC for $500 with a monitor.

With VDI you still have to have a delivery device which probably runs around $400, throw in a monitor ($100), and OS license for VDI ($100 depending if you have SA or not) + VDA license ($100) and I don't see how it is cheaper.

I definitely can buy into the argument that VDI is cheaper to manage than traditional desktops so I would say that is where the cost savings is at.

Maybe I am wrong on this though. What are you guys using for thin clients?I can't say exactly what we use due to an NDA.

Your numbers are high....

Moniter with NIC (21 in.)= $125.00 (about same price as regular monitor)
OS VDI = $35.00 (way cheaper than a desktop)
VDI Licsense = $45.00

No desktop support needed for 10K desktops. Get interns to carry out a moniter or new keyboard to users whp broke their hardware.

But, your biggest savings is productivity. No waiting on the help desk or time spent filling out a ticket. No waiting for the desktop tech to show up and no waiting while the desktop tech fixes the issue. Configuration management buys a monitor it can go into the system and automatically becaomes a part of the pool based on the ID #.

Users are taught that if any issue comes up, just log off and log back on. So far in the test group that has resolved 98.7% of the issues.

Desktop performance is through the roof because the old hardware that weas in place and fragmented HD's. Login times cut by 183%.

The only issues I've faced was tuning my pools to get the right ratio's down of available VDI's vs. needed.

Just my experience, your mileage may vary.

Mr. Laz
08-17-2011, 07:58 PM
isn't a tablet a PC?

Yes, computers will continue to shrink and the desktop PC will now become small enough to be mobile.

how is desktop gaming going to die when they keep making games that require more and more power?

BigRedChief
08-17-2011, 08:45 PM
isn't a tablet a PC?

Yes, computers will continue to shrink and the desktop PC will now become small enough to be mobile.

how is desktop gaming going to die when they keep making games that require more and more power?Moore's law

KILLER_CLOWN
08-18-2011, 02:32 PM
I bought this a few months ago, not bad for a laptop

Asus - Laptop / Intel® Core™ i7 Processor / 17.3" Display / 8GB Memory / 1TB Hard Drive - Black

Model: G74SX-BBK7 | SKU: 2712579

NVIDIA GeForce GTX 560M graphics

http://www.bestbuy.com/site/Asus+-+Laptop+/+Intel%26%23174%3B+Core%26%23153%3B+i7+Processor+/+17.3%22+Display+/+8GB+Memory+/+1TB+Hard+Drive+-+Black/2712579.p?id=1218346639131&skuId=2712579

Best part about it is how it handles the usual heat problem.

http://www.bestbuy.com/site/olspage.jsp?id=cat13506&type=page&skuId=2712579&productId=1218346639131&viewtype=Alternate%20View%202&h=387

$1199 at best buy. Great for gaming handles everything i throw at it, I still and always will prefer my desktop though.

Count Alex's Wins
10-06-2011, 07:23 PM
SUCK MY BALLS MOTHERFUCKERS

http://pcmedia.gamespy.com/pc/image/article/119/1198547/1-graph_1317870483.jpg

Pants
10-06-2011, 07:27 PM
SUCK MY BALLS MOTHER****ERS

http://pcmedia.gamespy.com/pc/image/article/119/1198547/1-graph_1317870483.jpg

How are they explaining this? By the time 2015 rolls around, the next generation of consoles will be out again and you'll see another major dip for PC, I think.

Piracy and system requirements kill PCs. That chart probably includes gay browser based games and Facebook garbage and counts it as "PC gaming".

Count Alex's Wins
10-06-2011, 07:36 PM
How are they explaining this? By the time 2015 rolls around, the next generation of consoles will be out again and you'll see another major dip for PC, I think.

Piracy and system requirements kill PCs. That chart probably includes gay browser based games and Facebook garbage and counts it as "PC gaming".

http://pc.gamespy.com/articles/119/1198547p1.html

If you want to make a hardcore gamer roll their eyes in exasperation, tell them that the PC gaming industry is dead and/or dying. Variations on this well-worn statement have been circulating for years, and it's never been particularly true. In 2011, it's less true than ever: thanks to digital distribution, more people are buying and playing PC games, so it's no surprise that developers and publishers continue to invest heavily in the space. Their efforts don't necessarily have the goal of extracting gamers' wallets from pockets, either: the burgeoning 'free to play' model is being taken seriously by publishers like EA and Activision. And though the hardcore among you might be loath to admit it, those who choose to while away their hours playing Facebook games are technically PC gamers, too.

All told, PC game sales accounted for $16 billion in revenue worldwide last year, according to research conducted by DFC Intelligence on behalf of Nvidia. If DFC's forecasts are to be believed, PC games will eclipse console game sales in 2014, and incur a sense of deja vu among those gamers old enough to remember a pre-console period where the PC ruled the emerging market for home video games.

In this two-part feature, GameSpy will examine the health of the PC gaming industry across two fronts - retail and digital - in an effort to dispel those pesky death rumours once and for all.