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HonestChieffan
08-23-2011, 12:25 PM
http://weaselzippers.us/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/obama_approval_index_august_23_2011.jpg

Imagine that. But in keeping with looking for some good news, it seems the decline is declining at a declining rate.

And that was before:

New Home sale numbers...http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/U/US_NEW_HOME_SALES?SITE=AP&SECTION=HOME&TEMPLATE=DEFAULT&CTIME=2011-08-23-10-14-07

and....Factory output numbers..http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Regional-factory-index-rb-1035796261.html;_ylt=AmU8PdgrcheIFqqxaCgPj0.7YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTE1cmFrOWE5BHBvcwMzBHNlYwN0b3BTdG9yaWVzB HNsawNlY29ub21pY2RhdGE-?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset=&ccode=

Amnorix
08-23-2011, 12:33 PM
It's not record setting. Bush was worse, apparently.

By way of comparison, President Bush had ratings near the end of his second term in the minus 30s.

http://wizbangblog.com/2011/08/23/lowest-approval-rating-yet/


But still, with numbers like these reelection will be a huge challenge (or impossible).

BigRichard
08-23-2011, 01:40 PM
The people who decide the elections vote their pocket book not Repub or Dem. Obama has not been able to provide what he said he could. If the Republicans actually put someone that isn't a complete slime ball up to run for POTUS I think they will win it. That is if the economy doesn't do a complete 180 and turn us all into rich people.

Bewbies
08-23-2011, 01:42 PM
I was told that no President has ever been reelected with an unemployment rating above 8%....

Amnorix
08-23-2011, 01:51 PM
I was told that no President has ever been reelected with an unemployment rating above 8%....


I think this is (a) wrong (maybe? see FDR below), and (b) one of those statistical flukes that you can't get too much traction from. Bottom line is that >8% unemployment has been relatively rare since they started tracking data in (far as I can tell), 1946 or so.

http://www.google.com/publicdata/explore?ds=z1ebjpgk2654c1_&met_y=unemployment_rate&tdim=true&fdim_y=seasonality:S&dl=en&hl=en&q=unemployment+data#ctype=l&strail=false&nselm=h&met_y=unemployment_rate&fdim_y=seasonality:S&scale_y=lin&ind_y=false&rdim=state&ifdim=state&tdim=true&hl=en&dl=en

The chart indicates >8% unemployment during election years only in one case -- 1976. Unemployment fell below 8% just in time in 1984 for Reagan to get re-elected when unemployment was "only" 7.3%.

It's an interesting stat, but I think too rare to actually draw anything from.

My initial thought when I saw your post was "hell no, must've been higher during FDR's re-elections", and apparently it was, though where this data is from I have no idea. I also don't know if they calculated unemployment the same way.



1936
Unemployment in 1936 at 16.9%
Unemployment averages 16.9% for the year.

Nov 3, 1936
Roosevelt Reelected
Franklin D. Roosevelt is elected to a second term as president, winning in a landslide over Republican Alf Landon. Roosevelt wins every state but Maine and Vermont.


http://www.shmoop.com/great-depression/timeline.html

HonestChieffan
08-23-2011, 01:53 PM
http://weaselzippers.us/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/Screen-shot-2011-08-23-at-1.23.55-PM-550x261.png

Good news everyone!! Good News!!! At the same point, Carter was a neg 33! Proof Obama is NOT a new Jimmeh Carter

Amnorix
08-23-2011, 01:53 PM
The people who decide the elections vote their pocket book not Repub or Dem. Obama has not been able to provide what he said he could. If the Republicans actually put someone that isn't a complete slime ball up to run for POTUS I think they will win it. That is if the economy doesn't do a complete 180 and turn us all into rich people.


I agree, though I think if the economy is showing progress, especially in jobs, that might be enough. Not like we need to have an economic boom a la 1998 or whatever for Obama to get re-elected.

But it also depends on who the Republicans are fielding, and how people feel about the relative responsibilities of the Republicans versus the Democrats for our current economic woes (which is hotly debated on here as well of course).

Amnorix
08-23-2011, 01:54 PM
http://weaselzippers.us/wp-content/uploads/2011/08/Screen-shot-2011-08-23-at-1.23.55-PM-550x261.png

Good news everyone!! Good News!!! At the same point, Carter was a neg 33! Proof Obama is NOT a new Jimmeh Carter


Bush was also lower.

So the people hated "your" guy slightly more than they hate "our" guy. Yippee damn do.

We're 15 months out from teh election. A bit early for all this.

fan4ever
08-23-2011, 01:58 PM
The people who decide the elections vote their pocket book not Repub or Dem. Obama has not been able to provide what he said he could. If the Republicans actually put someone that isn't a complete slime ball up to run for POTUS I think they will win it. That is if the economy doesn't do a complete 180 and turn us all into rich people.

Obama's only hope is that the Tea Party situation splits the conservative vote.

BigRichard
08-23-2011, 02:49 PM
Obama's only hope is that the Tea Party situation splits the conservative vote.

So if the economy gets better you think that Obama won't get re-elected?

Bewbies
08-23-2011, 05:51 PM
So if the economy gets better you think that Obama won't get re-elected?

The economy is currently getting worse. 15 months isn't a long time for us to bottom out again and start to grow, especially when there are no signs that either are near.

Calcountry
08-23-2011, 07:09 PM
The people who decide the elections vote their pocket book not Repub or Dem. Obama has not been able to provide what he said he could. If the Republicans actually put someone that isn't a complete slime ball up to run for POTUS I think they will win it. That is if the economy doesn't do a complete 180 and turn us all into rich people.Actually, he did exactly what he said he would do. He said, he was going to bring trans-formative change to America.

Sadly, he succeeded. Oh, and he aint done yet, he has over a year left to continue the BOHICA administration.

Bill Parcells
08-23-2011, 07:14 PM
Bush was also lower.

So the people hated "your" guy slightly more than they hate "our" guy. Yippee damn do.

We're 15 months out from teh election. A bit early for all this.

You keep comparing Obama to Bush ROFL :clap:

That is very telling!

Since you brought it up, Bush had a national catastrophe dumped on his lap 9 months into his term. Obama has done nothing but point the finger for almost 3 years now. when is it gonna stop?

2bikemike
08-23-2011, 07:18 PM
Bush was also lower.

So the people hated "your" guy slightly more than they hate "our" guy. Yippee damn do.

We're 15 months out from teh election. A bit early for all this.

You do know that the reason Bush had a lower approval rating was because people weren't happy with congress.:D

Calcountry
08-23-2011, 07:25 PM
You keep comparing Obama to Bush ROFL :clap:

That is very telling!

Since you brought it up, Bush had a national catastrophe dumped on his lap 9 months into his term. Obama has done nothing but point the finger for almost 3 years now. when is it gonna stop?Funny, I never remember Bush taking to the microphone stand and blaming Clinton for gutting the CIA.

Calcountry
08-23-2011, 07:26 PM
You do know that the reason Bush had a lower approval rating was because people weren't happy with congress.:DI couldn't stand his big spending.

He looks like a miser compared to Obama.

petegz28
08-23-2011, 07:27 PM
The only 2 things that will save Obama's ass right now is the economy gets better or the Repubs field another dumbass. If the economy is in the shitter and it is Perry or Romney you can call Obama 1 and done

Calcountry
08-23-2011, 07:32 PM
The only 2 things that will save Obama's ass right now is the economy gets better or the Repubs field another dumbass. If the economy is in the shitter and it is Perry or Romney you can call Obama 1 and doneAt this point in the cycle, Reagan was considered a dumb ass, war monger, etc.

Whatever.

How is it, that the most extreme left wing radical ever has a chance, ONLY, if the opposition party nominates a RINO? wtf? We did that last time, how well did it work? WTF do we have to lose. I mean, nominating an extreme left winger didn't stop Obama from winning, and just look at how well he has fugged this country up. Soon he won't have to appologise for us being #1 anymore, he will have succeded in completely fugging this country up.

The way I see it, if you are moderate, then you need to vote for a right winger, just to get the country back to the middle.

banyon
08-23-2011, 09:13 PM
I don't know why, but I thought this was going to be about the friggin temperature.

Brock
08-23-2011, 09:19 PM
The way I see it, if you are moderate, then you need to vote for a right winger, just to get the country back to the middle.

Yeah, a republican president to go with a republican congress is just the ticket.

Bewbies
08-23-2011, 09:58 PM
Yeah, a republican president to go with a republican congress is just the ticket.

I don't care where they come from, I want people who want to get our country out of debt. In my mind every single person in DC needs to be replaced.

Brock
08-23-2011, 10:05 PM
I don't care where they come from, I want people who want to get our country out of debt. In my mind every single person in DC needs to be replaced.

Well, neither of those things are going to happen.

Extra Point
08-23-2011, 10:12 PM
Obama's only hope is that the Tea Party situation splits the conservative vote.

This. Perot killed Bush 1 Term 2. Anyone but the last GOP ticket resemblence!

Bewbies
08-23-2011, 10:27 PM
Well, neither of those things are going to happen.

Well, we were reading articles during the debt ceiling fight about a group of R's that wouldn't compromise, and couldn't be bought.

Maybe the process has already begun?

BigRichard
08-24-2011, 11:05 AM
Actually, he did exactly what he said he would do. He said, he was going to bring trans-formative change to America.

Sadly, he succeeded. Oh, and he aint done yet, he has over a year left to continue the BOHICA administration.

He campaigned to end the wars, close gitmo, and for more transparency in the government. I believe those are 3 pretty large promises broken to the people that elected him. Those are not the only ones.

BigRichard
08-24-2011, 11:06 AM
The economy is currently getting worse. 15 months isn't a long time for us to bottom out again and start to grow, especially when there are no signs that either are near.

This was not the question asked.