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milkman
10-15-2011, 08:13 AM
http://www.homeofthechiefs.com/2011/10/a-minor-retraction-week-5-game-review/#more-505

I don't usually bring things from the other forum I'm registered with, but I thought this was as comprehensive an analysis of Cassel against bad teams vs. good teams as I've seen.

The guy isn't much of a writer, so he can make a long read even longer, but I think it's worth it.

Dante84
10-15-2011, 08:15 AM
.

A Minor Retraction (Week 5 Game Review)

I’m starting this week’s article with a bit of egg on my face. Historically speaking, I’ve been meticulous about nailing down accurate stats for my articles. Last week, feeling the crunch to get the game review posted, I consulted Google for a stat I could have and should have calculated myself. It bit me in the ass. I posted Matt Cassel’s yards per game as 235.4 against losing teams and 141.0 against winning teams. The site I referenced was using just his 2009 and 2010 figures, which is a limitation I could accept, provided they had done their math correctly. They were close…. Over his first two years as a starter in Kansas City, he averaged 239.9 against losing teams and 158.8 against winning teams.

The clue that tipped me off to the screw up, however, was their touchdown and interception figures: 31/12 against losing teams and 14/16 against winning teams. Well…. Cassel didn’t throw 45 TDs and 28 INTs over that stretch. He threw 43 and 23. They spotted him a couple of scores, but they bumped his picks by 22 percent. I don’t like the guy (as a quarterback, anyway…. he may be a perfectly decent human being), but I’m not going to disseminate false information to prove my point.

Why should I? I don’t need to. The actual, factual figures are proof enough.

I know what you’re thinking…. Is this jackhole actually gonna pile on a guy coming off a four TD game against the best pass rush tandem in the league? Well…. Yes. Wins like this are exactly what has falsely legitimized his place as a starter in the NFL. Of his 35 starts in red and gold, he has a grand total of two wins against teams that concluded the season with a winning record. If Minnesota and Indianapolis right the ship this year, that number could go up to a whopping four.

Before I get into this, however, I want to acknowledge a handful of players I feel stood out this week. First and foremost, major props are due to Dwayne Bowe. His juggling touchdown catch had shades of David Tyree’s famous helmet catch in Super Bowl XLII. In truth, I’m almost equally impressed by the way he shed tackles on his first score. Steve Breaston played a third consecutive solid outing as well. Bowe and Breaston could very likely be the first Chiefs wide receiver tandem to crack 2000 yards in 28 years (kudos to you if you can name that last tandem off the top of your head…. I had to look it up). Four fifths of the offensive line deserves props as well, particularly Branden Albert, who did an excellent job of limiting the effectiveness of one of the best, most consistent pass rushers of the last decade. On the opposite side, respect should be given to Kelly Gregg. It’s easy to see why he was so important to Baltimore’s run defense for so long. Glenn Dorsey had a nice day as well.

Of course, no discussion of this game would be complete without mention of Jackie Battle’s 119 yard day (140 if you include his two catches). I’ve never shied from my support for him. I liked him from his very first carry back in December, 2007–a three yard high contact touchdown straight up the gut. It shouldn’t shock anybody that a fourth string back had a career day against this Colts defense, but there was something hidden in Battle’s stats that did hint as to why I’ve thought so much of him for so long: 4.0 yards after contact per carry, which indicates his engine doesn’t shut off. He’s still fighting for distance at the point where most backs would be sitting on the turf, waiting for one of their blockers to give them a hand up. I’ll say it again, because it merits repeating: 4.0 yards after contact per carry. Thomas Jones, on the other hand, was stuck at 1.4.

Back to the subject…. I’ll start with a couple of figures from the Indy game. To Cassel’s credit, of his 29 passing attempts, he targeted his top three receivers 18 times and his starting tight end 3. Of the remaining eight, seven were to his ever-expanding fleet of tailbacks. The final throw was to Terrance Copper. Throws to Terrance Copper are, as a rule, ill advised, but the pass was complete, so I’ll leave it alone.

Cassel completed 72.4% of his passes for 257 yards. Over the season, opposing QBs have completed 68.4% for an average of 254.2 yards a game against Indy. 68.4% is stunningly bad; it ties them up at the bottom of the league with Denver. 254.2 yards a game is middle of the pack, but I’m guessing that number would be considerably higher if they weren’t getting gashed on the ground for another 145.2 (second worst in the league, behind St. Louis). That’s a combined total of 399.4 yards a week they’re giving up (seventh worst), and they’re allowing an average of 27.2 points (fourth worst; regrettably, the Chiefs are bringing up the rear in that category).

There’s really nothing unexpected about this contest. The Colts allowed a lot of rushing yards; that was to be expected. The Colts allowed a high percentage of completed passes; that was to be expected. The Colts allowed four scores; that was to be expected. It did my heart good to see the house that Jeff George built brought to its knees (and yes, before the snarky replies start, I am aware that the Pride of Purdue never played in Lucas Oil Stadium), but, in the words of Huckleberry Finn, I warn’t surprised. If there was ever a case for the importance of a franchise quarterback, they’re it.

I’ve heard the assertion that the Colts are losing now because all of their money is invested in Peyton Manning. That’s not exactly correct. Manning makes a pretty penny, but Wayne, Clark, Freeney, Mathis, Bethea, Diem, and Saturday didn’t come cheap. That team is built to win. I respect Kerry Collins, but the expectation that he’d be able to operate Manning’s fine-tuned machine on two weeks’ notice was ludicrous. Had Curtis Painter been handed the reigns from day one, I doubt they’d be 0-5, but they wouldn’t be a lock to win their division either. That’s the difference a guy like Manning makes. With him, they’ve made an unprecedented playoff run–nine appearances in the past decade, and 11 in his 13 year career. Without him, they’re probably no better than an 8 to 10 win team, perennially in contention for a wild card, but not a lock.

I digress. Back to Cassel. With his stats in hand, I wanted to do a more comprehensive analysis. In his first two seasons with Kansas City, he was 4-10 against teams with an 8-8 or better record and 10-6 against teams 7-9 or under. Within those ranges, there’s a fair amount of ambiguity. Beating a 13-3 team is not the same as beating a 9-7 team. Thus, I broke down Cassel’s various stats into four categories, based on the opposing team’s season record: 5 or fewer wins, 6-7 wins, 8-9 wins, and 10+ wins. I also separated a two year analysis of his start in KC with a three year analysis that includes his time starting in KC and New England. Since he played the majority of the week 1 KC/New England game in 2008, it’s included in my figures. This year’s games, along with his handful of attempts prior to 2008, are not included. To begin, I present his wins and losses (two year window in KC listed first, three year starting career second):

Opponents with 5 or less wins: 6-3 (66.7%) / 10-3 (76.9%)
Opponents with 6-7 wins: 4-3 (57.1%) / 7-3 (70%)
Opponents with 8-9 wins: 4-4 (50.0%) / 7-6 (53.8%)
Opponents with 10+ wins: 0-6 (0%) / 1-9 (10%)

The lone win against a team with double digit victories came against Chad Pennington’s fluke 2008 11-5 Dolphins.

Wins are reflective of a full team effort. Defenses can lose games just as easily as offenses. Thus, those numbers don’t necessarily tell the full story. Next, consider his completion percentage:

5 or less: 57.5% / 58.9%
6-7: 62.7% / 64.3%
8-9: 48.0% / 53.9%
10+: 57.5% / 60.1%

There’s an obvious abberration there. The 48.0% and 53.9% figures are weighed down considerably by that 11-33, 2 INT performance against the Raiders at the close of last season. Otherwise, his numbers are essentially consistent top to bottom, with minimal deviation from his time in KC to his career starter figures. Next, yards per attempt:

5 or less: 7.1 / 7.1
6-7: 7.2 / 7.3
8-9: 5.6 / 6.5
10+: 5.3 / 5.7

There’s a minor but noticeable favorable bias toward his full career. This is the influence of Wes Welker. In 2008, Wes added 767 yards after catch on 111 receptions, or 6.9 extra yards per catch. The median average for first wide receivers is 5.0. That means Cassel got another approximately 215 yards on the season from Welker’s standout performance. I’m not going to run what-if calculations, but it definitely accounts for the discrepancy.

The cause for concern is the sizeable margin that separates his performance against mediocre and bad teams versus his performance against winners. If the drop in production was coupled with a similar drop in completion percentage, the logical assertion would be that it was the net effect of facing tougher teams with better pass rushers and stronger secondaries. For Cassel, there is no corresponding drop–his completion percentage stays about the same. Thus, his yards per completion suffers considerably against top competition:

5 or less: 12.3 / 12.1
6-7: 11.4 / 11.4
8-9: 11.8 / 12.0
10+: 9.2 / 9.5

Of course, these numbers by themselves are relatively meaningless without seeing how they stack up against Cassel’s competition. The easy out for me would be to size him up to Manning or Brady–guys whose busts for Canton have already been sculpted and stowed away for later use. Again, I’m not out to unduly disparage the guy; thus, my choice for the job was Joe Flacco.

Why Flacco? First, their careers as NFL starters have completely coincided. Baltimore drafted Flacco in 2008 and threw him into the fire immediately, while Cassel took over for the injured Brady in the first week of the same season. Second, both have experienced the ups and downs associated with underperforming wide receivers. Flacco’s have been more consistent, but Cassel struck gold early with Wes Welker and Randy Moss. Third, neither has established himself as an elite signal caller. I think Flacco eventually will (which is kind of the point of this whole exercise), but he hasn’t arrived yet, and a bumpy start to the current season isn’t exactly expediting the process. Fourth, and finally, he could have been ours. He was there for the taking for both of Kansas City’s first round picks that year. As much as I like Albert and Dorsey, I think I could justify not having one or the other if my team had a legitimate quarterback for the next decade.

Flacco, incidentally, graduated from Delaware, but actually started his collegiate career at Pittsburgh. He left after two years because he couldn’t escape the long shadow of starter Tyler Palko.

Here are Flacco’s numbers compared to Cassel’s (Flacco first, Cassel second). To level the playing field, I’m using Cassel’s full three years as a starter rather than just his time in KC. Going in the same order as before, I’ll start with wins and losses:

5 or less: 17-1 (94.4%) / 10-3 (76.9%)
6-7: 3-0 (100%) / 7-3 (70%)
8-9: 6-1 (85%) / 7-6 (53.8%)
10+: 6-14 (30%) / 1-9 (10%)

Next, completion percentage:

5 or less: 61.9% / 58.9%
6-7: 70.8% / 64.3%
8-9: 61.1% / 53.9%
10+: 61.2% / 60.1%

Now yards per attempt:

5 or less: 7.8 / 7.1
6-7: 8.3 / 7.3
8-9: 7.1 / 6.5
10+: 6.8 / 5.7

And yards per completion:

5 or less: 12.5 / 12.1
6-7: 11.7 / 11.4
8-9: 11.6 / 12.1
10+: 11.0 / 9.5

One of these things is not like the other.

To close the statistical diatribe portion of this article, I want to revisit a couple of negative things I’ve said about Cassel in the past, but with hard numbers. First, he can’t throw deep passes (passes where his target is positioned 20 or more yards beyond the line of scrimmage). Second, his accuracy is absolute crap when he’s under pressure. The deep ball is a nice tool to have, but not an absolute requirement. Poise under pressure, on the other hand, is a definite must. Again, the numbers are meaningless without comparison, so Flacco’s numbers are included here as well. I am, however, upping the ante…. I stated that Flacco was not yet an elite quarterback. Thus, to see how both of them stack up, I’ve also pulled the numbers for five guys I do consider elite: Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Peyton Manning, Ben Roethlisberger, and Philip Rivers. These figures are also over the window of 2008-2010.

First up, deep ball accuracy:

Brees: 97/211 (46.0%)
Rivers: 80/197 (40.6%)
Roethlisberger 66/185 (35.7%)
Brady: 36/111 (32.4%)
Flacco: 63/197 (32.0%)
Manning: 75/239 (31.4%)
Cassel: 42/151 (27.8%)

Brees simply shreds the competition here. Figures adjusted for blatant drops make his numbers even gaudier–well over 50%. Manning’s percentage also suffers considerably from drops. Cassel clearly doesn’t measure up to the top of the pack, but again, it’s a great skill to have, but not mandatory; thus, I could probably let that slide were it not for this, probably the most damning statistic of all–pass completion under pressure:

Brees: 233/438 (53.2%)
Manning: 227/435 (52.2%)
Roethlisberger: 181/349 (51.9%)
Rivers: 200/392 (51.0%)
Brady: 137/271 (50.6%)
Flacco: 166/351 (47.3%)
Cassel: 104/370 (28.1%)

I consulted my lawyer, and he concurs…. With evidence like that, I really don’t need to bother making a closing argument.

Dave Lane
10-15-2011, 08:44 AM
TL;DR version.

Cassel sucks at the long ball, against good defenses and shits his pants when he's under pressure.

Good to see statistics back up what we all know.

jd1020
10-15-2011, 08:47 AM
TL;DR version.

Cassel sucks at the long ball, against good defenses and shits his pants when he's under pressure.

Good to see statistics back up what we all know.

Dont forget that with Cassel we have a 10% chance of winning a playoff game. But, we need Welker and Moss too. Moss retired, so we have a 0% chance.

milkman
10-15-2011, 08:55 AM
TL;DR version.

Cassel sucks at the long ball, against good defenses and shits his pants when he's under pressure.

Good to see statistics back up what we all know.

We've seen some numbers before, but not as extensive as these.

I just thought it was really interesting, and was worth posting.

OnTheWarpath58
10-15-2011, 09:01 AM
Confirms everything some of us have been saying about him for the past 3 years.

Really the only thing that was missing is how much YAC he's the benefit of. There used to be a nice write-up on a Colts website about him, but it's no longer there.

Dave Lane
10-15-2011, 09:08 AM
We've seen some numbers before, but not as extensive as these.

I just thought it was really interesting, and was worth posting.

Oh I agree and read the whole thing. Some of the stats weren't very convincing but overall yes it was interesting to see the stats back up my eyes.

Dave Lane
10-15-2011, 09:10 AM
I figured 80% of the posters wouldn't take the time to read the whole thing so I put up a tl;dr version for their benefit.

milkman
10-15-2011, 09:15 AM
Confirms everything some of us have been saying about him for the past 3 years.

Really the only thing that was missing is how much YAC he's the benefit of. There used to be a nice write-up on a Colts website about him, but it's no longer there.

That is one thing that is missing, for sure.

Cassel had 257 yards against the Colts, and I'd bet that at least 150 yards came on yac.

That Bowe TD on the slant accounted for 40 yards yac, roughly, on it's own.

Extra Point
10-15-2011, 09:18 AM
Moral of the story: The slant and over-under patterns are your friends, and they're worth calling if you want to get YAC with Cassel throwing.

jd1020
10-15-2011, 09:19 AM
Confirms everything some of us have been saying about him for the past 3 years.

Really the only thing that was missing is how much YAC he's the benefit of. There used to be a nice write-up on a Colts website about him, but it's no longer there.

Not sure about his time in KC but his 1 season in NE he was the #1 benefit of YAC at 57%.

tredadda
10-15-2011, 09:40 AM
I by no means support Cassel, but don't most QB's benefit from their recievers YAC? I know the year Brady put up super numbers both Moss and Welker had sick YAC numbers.

Bump
10-15-2011, 09:41 AM
even if we had the 5 top WR's of all time in their prime, the best running game, the best o-line and Tony G in his prime. Cassel's numbers and performance vs good teams would remain the same.

OnTheWarpath58
10-15-2011, 09:47 AM
Not sure about his time in KC but his 1 season in NE he was the #1 benefit of YAC at 57%.

I by no means support Cassel, but don't most QB's benefit from their recievers YAC? I know the year Brady put up super numbers both Moss and Welker had sick YAC numbers.

IIRC, the next closest percentage was Drew Brees at 40%.

jd1020
10-15-2011, 09:49 AM
I by no means support Cassel, but don't most QB's benefit from their recievers YAC? I know the year Brady put up super numbers both Moss and Welker had sick YAC numbers.

Most QB's are in the 40-45 range, some under 40. Less than a handful benefit more from their receivers than themselves.

milkman
10-15-2011, 09:50 AM
I by no means support Cassel, but don't most QB's benefit from their recievers YAC? I know the year Brady put up super numbers both Moss and Welker had sick YAC numbers.

Every QB does benefit from yac.

The question then becomes, how much of yac is the result of the QB getting the ball to the receiver accurately and giving him the opportunity to get those extra yards, and how much is the receivers making plays on their own?

Someone would have to really put in a lot of work to break that down.

milkman
10-15-2011, 09:53 AM
Then there's the question of how often is the QB going downfield as opposed to tossing the ball short and asking the receiver to run after catch?

Bane
10-15-2011, 09:54 AM
So Cassel still sucks right?

jd1020
10-15-2011, 09:55 AM
Then there's the question of how often is the QB going downfield as opposed to tossing the ball short and asking the receiver to run after catch?

Cassel might have had negative passing yards through the first 5 weeks, if YAC were taken completely out, with the amount of times he threw behind the LoS.

OnTheWarpath58
10-15-2011, 10:01 AM
Knew it was high, but didn't realize it was this high.

75% of Cassel's attempts have traveled less than 10 yards in the air.

21.4% of Cassel's attempts have been thrown behind the LOS.

2011 numbers.

Rausch
10-15-2011, 10:03 AM
Then there's the question of how often is the QB going downfield as opposed to tossing the ball short and asking the receiver to run after catch?

Nothing new.

Hell, Pats fans complained about this when he was filling in there...

milkman
10-15-2011, 10:12 AM
Knew it was high, but didn't realize it was this high.

75% of Cassel's attempts have traveled less than 10 yards in the air.

21.4% of Cassel's attempts have been thrown behind the LOS.

2011 numbers.

That's pathetic.

Where'd you find that stat?

I'd like to find out how many have traveled more than 20 yards in the air, and how many of those are completed.

Fritz88
10-15-2011, 10:17 AM
Knew it was high, but didn't realize it was this high.

75% of Cassel's attempts have traveled less than 10 yards in the air.

21.4% of Cassel's attempts have been thrown behind the LOS.

2011 numbers.

God, this guy is the luckiest guy on planet earth to be starting for an NFL team.

OnTheWarpath58
10-15-2011, 10:18 AM
That's pathetic.

Where'd you find that stat?

I'd like to find out how many have traveled more than 20 yards in the air, and how many of those are completed.

His ESPN.com player page. Click on "splits" then go to the bottom of the page.

Passes thrown 11-20 yards: 10/22 for 211 yards 1:1 ratio

Passes thrown over 20 yards: 6/13 for 219 yards 1:1 ratio

So he's completing a whopping 45% of his passes over 10 yards. Sadly, that's a slight improvement over past years. Of course, it helps that Bowe has been able to fair catch of a couple of those long "punts" Cassel has thrown.

Rausch
10-15-2011, 10:19 AM
So I'm guessing he still sucks...

Douche Baggins
10-15-2011, 10:19 AM
He's been better over 20 yards this year.

SNR
10-15-2011, 10:19 AM
Anybody have memberships to Arrowhead Pride and the other homertastic Chiefs boards?

Shove this in their faces.

Rausch
10-15-2011, 10:22 AM
Anybody have memberships to Arrowhead Pride and the other homertastic Chiefs boards?

:shake:

OnTheWarpath58
10-15-2011, 10:27 AM
Anybody have memberships to Arrowhead Pride and the other homertastic Chiefs boards?

Shove this in their faces.

Nope, and even if I did, I wouldn't bother.

They've ignored these numbers for 3 years, just like the organization has, apparently.

Douche Baggins
10-15-2011, 10:32 AM
I've been reposting it all year, but he didn't include my favorite Cassel statistic: wins against playoff teams.

Three in 50 starts, one with the Chiefs, against the 7-9 Seahawks.

FringeNC
10-15-2011, 10:34 AM
Thanks for the link.

The glaring stat is completion percentage under pressure. Cassel is so bad there. That really is the explanation for the extreme variance in his performance. He shits his pants under pressure. With no pressure, he's not a bad QB at all. In other words, despite decent overall statistics, he'll always be useless in the playoffs.

Phobia
10-15-2011, 10:36 AM
Every QB does benefit from yac.

The question then becomes, how much of yac is the result of the QB getting the ball to the receiver accurately and giving him the opportunity to get those extra yards, and how much is the receivers making plays on their own?

Someone would have to really put in a lot of work to break that down.

Sometimes it's extra effort on the part of the WR and sometimes it's because the QB put the ball in stride or led the WR to an open spot in the field. That's why it would be unfair to both WR and QB to attempt to credit those stats to one guy or the other. But it is fair to raise the point that YAC credited to a QB who is lobbing the ball 7 yards in the air routinely dispropportionately skews his stats in his favor.

Douche Baggins
10-15-2011, 10:37 AM
I don't know where this guy is getting his passing under pressure statistics, but this year, interestingly enough, Cassel is leading the league in completion percentage under pressure. According to PFF, anyway.

Last year he was 19th, the year before he was 24th.

Bwana
10-15-2011, 10:40 AM
So Cassel still sucks right?

Like a shop-vac.

http://www.shopvac.com/images_products/9621310.jpg

FringeNC
10-15-2011, 10:43 AM
I don't know where this guy is getting his passing under pressure statistics, but this year, interestingly enough, Cassel is leading the league in completion percentage under pressure. According to PFF, anyway.

Last year he was 19th, the year before he was 24th.

JFC. That's why statistical measure of QB effectiveness suck. All the advanced stats suck because they are subjective. At the end of the day, yards per attempt is still the gold standard.

Rausch
10-15-2011, 10:45 AM
I don't know where this guy is getting his passing under pressure statistics, but this year, interestingly enough, Cassel is leading the league in completion percentage under pressure. According to PFF, anyway.

Last year he was 19th, the year before he was 24th.

When you consistently dump off teh ball to a HB or TE running a 3 yard route it's pretty easy.

Douche Baggins
10-15-2011, 10:47 AM
JFC. That's why statistical measure of QB effectiveness suck. All the advanced stats suck because they are subjective. At the end of the day, yards per attempt is still the gold standard.

Well, we're dealing with a very small sample size in this case.

Cassel has only 26 attempts under pressure this year.

The guys ranked near him in completion percentage have more:

Brees - 52
Manning - 50
Kolb - 57
Stafford - 42
Henne - 43

Cassel has the 2nd fewest attempts under pressure in the league

Rausch
10-15-2011, 10:50 AM
Well, we're dealing with a very small sample size in this case.

Cassel has only 26 attempts under pressure this year.

He has 3 years of play to look over...

Douche Baggins
10-15-2011, 10:51 AM
When you consistently dump off teh ball to a HB or TE running a 3 yard route it's pretty easy.

There is probably some truth to this.

But, Cassel's YPA under pressure is similar to Brees'.

However, I would argue the small sample size is skewing that statistic right now.

Cassel's Minnesota and Indy games are definitely weighing heavily right now.

YPA under pressure by week:

0
3.3
1.8
8.9
7.7

OnTheWarpath58
10-15-2011, 10:52 AM
Cassel has the 2nd fewest attempts under pressure in the league

a.) Our OL is not nearly as bad as people claim

b.) Hard to get pressure on bubble screens, swing passes and slants.

milkman
10-15-2011, 10:52 AM
Well, we're dealing with a very small sample size in this case.

Cassel has only 26 attempts under pressure this year.

The guys ranked near him in completion percentage have more:

Brees - 52
Manning - 50
Kolb - 57
Stafford - 42
Henne - 43

Cassel has the 2nd fewest attempts under pressure in the league

Just curious, what is Rodgers' completion percentage under pressure, and how is his O-Line rated?

FringeNC
10-15-2011, 10:52 AM
Well, we're dealing with a very small sample size in this case.

Cassel has only 26 attempts under pressure this year.

The guys ranked near him in completion percentage have more:

Brees - 52
Manning - 50
Kolb - 57
Stafford - 42
Henne - 43

Cassel has the 2nd fewest attempts under pressure in the league

I'm still guessing it's a different methodology than the other site. Who knows...

Fritz88
10-15-2011, 10:58 AM
SFL
Posted via Mobile Device

Douche Baggins
10-15-2011, 10:59 AM
Just curious, what is Rodgers' completion percentage under pressure, and how is his O-Line rated?

62.5/8th

9th

cdcox
10-15-2011, 11:05 AM
I checked percentage of passing yards by YAC for three teams in 2010:

KC 49%
IND 40%
GB 47%

I don't have any problem with a QB benefiting from YAC. Cassel's problems are accuracy, inability to make reads, inability to use his legs to allow him to make plays down field.

He's fine if there is no pressure and his first read is open. Any other situation he is inadequate.

tk13
10-15-2011, 11:05 AM
His ESPN.com player page. Click on "splits" then go to the bottom of the page.

Passes thrown 11-20 yards: 10/22 for 211 yards 1:1 ratio

Passes thrown over 20 yards: 6/13 for 219 yards 1:1 ratio

So he's completing a whopping 45% of his passes over 10 yards. Sadly, that's a slight improvement over past years. Of course, it helps that Bowe has been able to fair catch of a couple of those long "punts" Cassel has thrown.

It's the 11-20 stat that's pretty rough. That needs to definitely be a little better.

I think most people would be surprised by the 20+ yard pass numbers, I think most QB's start to go downhill when they try throwing passes over 20 yards. Tom Brady is 7/21 on passes over 20 yards this year. Philip Rivers is 6/17. Drew Brees is 9/18. Matt Stafford is 8/24. Sanchez is 5/17. I think that's pretty normal.

whoman69
10-15-2011, 12:05 PM
It's the 11-20 stat that's pretty rough. That needs to definitely be a little better.

I think most people would be surprised by the 20+ yard pass numbers, I think most QB's start to go downhill when they try throwing passes over 20 yards. Tom Brady is 7/21 on passes over 20 yards this year. Philip Rivers is 6/17. Drew Brees is 9/18. Matt Stafford is 8/24. Sanchez is 5/17. I think that's pretty normal.

I would have to say the surprise factor is a part of this. Teams don't expect the Chiefs to go downfield because Check Down doesn't often take those shots.

I would also say the stats are skewed by the fact that most teams have a larger majority of short passes as called plays rather than the check down. Check Down has done a better job of that the last 2 games.

Douche Baggins
10-15-2011, 12:05 PM
Thread title should be

Cassel, a statistical beatdown

WhiteWhale
10-15-2011, 02:07 PM
JFC. That's why statistical measure of QB effectiveness suck. All the advanced stats suck because they are subjective. At the end of the day, yards per attempt is still the gold standard.

Nice to see someone I agree with about YPA.

I had a guy argue with me that it was a minor meaningless QB statistic.

It's minor and meaningless in the same way that a running back's YPC is minor and meaningless.

WhiteWhale
10-15-2011, 02:08 PM
a.) Our OL is not nearly as bad as people claim

b.) Hard to get pressure on bubble screens, swing passes and slants.

And 3rd and long draw plays.

Groves
10-15-2011, 04:08 PM
As if his mental and physical breakdowns weren't enough, sheesh. Statistical's take the longest to rehab, I hear.

NJChiefsFan
10-15-2011, 05:11 PM
That is one thing that is missing, for sure.

Cassel had 257 yards against the Colts, and I'd bet that at least 150 yards came on yac.

That Bowe TD on the slant accounted for 40 yards yac, roughly, on it's own.

The completion % under pressure was the most telling stat in that article. You warned he wasn't the best writer, but he wasn't that bad.

Douche Baggins
10-15-2011, 05:17 PM
Does anyone know where this guy is getting his statistics from?

Cassel: 104/370 (28.1%)

According to PFF, from 2008-2010 Cassel's number is:

158/385 (41.03%)

That's a fairly huge discrepancy.

RINGLEADER
10-15-2011, 08:07 PM
I wish he would have just said that QBs do worse against better defenses and better QBs do better than crap QBs like Cassel.

milkman
10-15-2011, 08:11 PM
Does anyone know where this guy is getting his statistics from?

Cassel: 104/370 (28.1%)

According to PFF, from 2008-2010 Cassel's number is:

158/385 (41.03%)

That's a fairly huge discrepancy.

I'll check with him.

Deberg_1990
10-15-2011, 08:18 PM
Thanks for that Milk. Just confirms what we all already knew.
Posted via Mobile Device

Brianfo
10-15-2011, 08:47 PM
I by no means support Cassel, but don't most QB's benefit from their recievers YAC? I know the year Brady put up super numbers both Moss and Welker had sick YAC numbers.

Quit posting logic. CP won't have any of it.

Pawnmower
10-15-2011, 08:49 PM
Oh cool another Cassel sucks thread...how original....

I am seriously in shock the front office hasn't hired some of you...

milkman
10-15-2011, 08:51 PM
Oh cool another Cassel sucks thread...how original....

I am seriously in shock the front office hasn't hired some of you...

I am seriously in shock that the drool dripping from your chin hasn't yet shorted out your computer.

milkman
10-16-2011, 12:47 PM
I'll check with him.

Okay, he got back to me, and he says that he uses PFF, and after checking again, they have another set of numbers that match niether the ones he originally posted, nor the ones you posted.

nathanKent
10-16-2011, 01:17 PM
I'm the "not much of a writer" dumbass here is referring to. I took screen prints this time to cover my ass. Right now it says 154/370 (41.6%), which is up from your figure, so I guess the mere act of looking at Cassel's stats on PFF makes them go up. Everybody go there and register.... We may win a few games yet.

The other QBs' numbers are (at least right now) exactly as I charted them the first time.

milkman
10-16-2011, 01:19 PM
I'm the "not much of a writer" dumbass here is referring to. I took screen prints this time to cover my ass. Right now it says 154/370 (41.6%), which is up from your figure, so I guess the mere act of looking at Cassel's stats on PFF makes them go up. Everybody go there and register.... We may win a few games yet.

The other QBs' numbers are (at least right now) exactly as I charted them the first time.

Sorry, Nathan, but your writing is tedious.

I wanted to give them fair warning.

Douche Baggins
10-16-2011, 01:38 PM
I'm the "not much of a writer" dumbass here is referring to. I took screen prints this time to cover my ass. Right now it says 154/370 (41.6%), which is up from your figure, so I guess the mere act of looking at Cassel's stats on PFF makes them go up. Everybody go there and register.... We may win a few games yet.

The other QBs' numbers are (at least right now) exactly as I charted them the first time.

Is that just 2008-2010? If so my math may have been off.

It'll be interesting to see what his percentage is at the end of this year. There's no way he's the most accurate passer in the league under pressure after another 11 games.

Okie_Apparition
10-16-2011, 02:10 PM
Show us your wife's tits
or this is all lies to boost your ego

The Bad Guy
10-16-2011, 02:18 PM
Oh cool another Cassel sucks thread...how original....

I am seriously in shock the front office hasn't hired some of you...

It's statistical analysis that backs up the point that the guy beats up on the children of the poor, and can't play with the big boys.

But continue to turn a blind eye because he wears red.

nathanKent
10-16-2011, 02:42 PM
Sorry, Nathan, but your writing is tedious.

I wanted to give them fair warning.

Quite alright. I'm not easily offended, and you hate everything anyway.

nathanKent
10-16-2011, 02:46 PM
Is that just 2008-2010? If so my math may have been off.

It'll be interesting to see what his percentage is at the end of this year. There's no way he's the most accurate passer in the league under pressure after another 11 games.

If the only measure is completion percentage, it's not entirely out of the question. All he has to do is keep targeting McCluster behind the LOS. It doesn't actually help move the chains, but it looks pretty on a stat line.

FringeNC
10-16-2011, 02:52 PM
Oh cool another Cassel sucks thread...how original....

I am seriously in shock the front office hasn't hired some of you...

Well, actually this is one more than just mindless Cassel bashing. A lot of us wanted Cassel to play like he did in some of his good games, like against Seattle last year, and were hopeful. But after his 5 games this year, he is so up and down, that there is something he simply cannot do, and the stats in this piece certainly indicate his problem is with pressure.

Again, I had held out hope he would be better this year, but it seems clear he shits his pants and his mechanics go all to hell when he is pressured, and that is a fatal flaw. He will tease us with good games against bad pass defenses, but against good ones, no QB in the NFL is worse. That is the sad truth.