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View Full Version : Football Every team in the AFC West likely to miss playoffs


Buck
11-18-2011, 09:08 AM
I don't know how the fuck this is possible, but you can look for yourself.

http://www.playoffstatus.com/nfl/afcstandingsg.html

Buck
11-18-2011, 09:09 AM
If you don't want to click the link.

This is each teams percent chance of missing the playoffs.

Raiders: 52%
Broncos: 58%
Chargers: 85%
Chiefs: 94%

Gonzo
11-18-2011, 09:11 AM
I thought the winner of the division got an automatic bid, (ala seattle last year). Guess that's wrong.
Posted via Mobile Device

Buck
11-18-2011, 09:12 AM
I thought the winner of the division got an automatic bid, (ala seattle and STl last year). Guess that's wrong.
Posted via Mobile Device

Nope, that's definitely right.

That's just how bad our division is I guess.

Maybe cdcox can shed some light on this.

Royal Fanatic
11-18-2011, 09:14 AM
It's not that hard to figure out. One of the teams will back into the playoffs, but each team is so bad that each team's chance is less than 50% when compared to the rest of the field.

These odds don't say that the entire AFC West will be shut out.

When Vegas bookies post the odds of each team's chances to win the Super Bowl each year, every team has less than a 50% chance, even the favorites. That doesn't mean nobody will win the Super Bowl. Right now the Packers are the favorite to win the Super Bowl. They are listed at 4 to 1, meaning there is a 25% chance that they'll win it.

http://www.betvega.com/super-bowl-odds/

alnorth
11-18-2011, 09:20 AM
Take the opposite of those numbers (1-chance of missing playoffs), and add them up. As long as that number is >= 100%, then it could be right. (It is 106%, which is an indication of how crappy our division is, since there's apparently very little chance we get more than 1 playoff team)

Royal Fanatic
11-18-2011, 09:25 AM
The other thing to remember is that Vegas betting lines are not an attempt to predict what will actually happen. They are intended to get 50% of the gamblers to bet each way. When the bets are balanced, the bookmakers don't care who wins, they just take their cut of the action.

That's why point spreads and odds are based primarily upon public perception, and why they change in the days leading up to the event. If a lot of money is being bet on one team, they move the point spread to encourage people to bet the other way.

Mile High Mania
11-18-2011, 09:39 AM
Are you guys new to the NFL? Every division will have a winner. The winner of the division will go to the playoffs.

Buck
11-18-2011, 09:41 AM
Yeah, no shit.

But there has to be a likely winner, right?

Pants
11-18-2011, 09:43 AM
Yeah, no shit.

But there has to be a likely winner, right?

Yeah, and it's Raiders right now. Jeez, Buck, it's not that hard.

Buck
11-18-2011, 09:46 AM
I don't know. Every other division has at least one team below 50. Sorry. I need to sleep.

When you all prove you have a 169 IQ like me, I'll start listening to you.

Sofa King
11-18-2011, 09:47 AM
I don't know. Every other division has at least one team below 50. Sorry. I need to sleep.

When you all prove you have a 1.69 IQ like me, I'll start listening to you.

FYP

boogblaster
11-18-2011, 09:50 AM
jc ....

Mile High Mania
11-18-2011, 09:50 AM
Yeah, no shit.

But there has to be a likely winner, right?

Sure, but that doesn't mean you're not a full blown retard for creating this thread.

Buck
11-18-2011, 09:52 AM
Well ok.

I checked cdcox's stuff and it has the Raiders at 73% to make it.

Sofa King
11-18-2011, 09:54 AM
They see Buck trollin', they hatin'.

Fritz88
11-18-2011, 09:56 AM
TEBOW
Posted via Mobile Device

DaFace
11-18-2011, 09:57 AM
This isn't that hard. If you said that the NFL would pick the AFCW division winner randomly, each team would have a 75% chance of missing the playoffs. That doesn't mean no one's going to win.

milkman
11-18-2011, 10:01 AM
I don't know. Every other division has at least one team below 50. Sorry. I need to sleep.

When you all prove you have a 169 IQ like me, I'll start listening to you.

I believe you misread your results.

It wasn't one hundred sixty nine.

It was sixteen point nine.

tk13
11-18-2011, 10:16 AM
The funny thing is we make fun of the division... the AFCW actually has a winning record against the rest of the AFC.
Posted via Mobile Device

-King-
11-18-2011, 10:30 AM
If you don't want to click the link.

This is each teams percent chance of missing the playoffs.

Raiders: 52%
Broncos: 58%
Chargers: 85%
Chiefs: 94%

Yeah, it just means that there's no clear cut favorite to win the division.
Posted via Mobile Device

Fritz88
11-18-2011, 10:34 AM
Yeah, it just means that there's no clear cut favorite to win the division.
Posted via Mobile Device

<iframe width="560" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/yCFB2akLh4s" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

Nzoner
11-18-2011, 11:45 AM
:doh!:

beach tribe
11-18-2011, 11:49 AM
http://i254.photobucket.com/albums/hh90/bbeal29/schmidlak-Facepalm.gif

vailpass
11-18-2011, 11:50 AM
jc ....

right?

Okie_Apparition
11-18-2011, 12:39 PM
The Broncos need to win enough to keep them from a quality QB
The Chargers need to win enough to keep Norv
The Raiders have to prove they won't shoot themselves in the foot before anyone will GAF

Slainte
11-18-2011, 12:46 PM
that's why they call it DOPE...

Mile High Mania
11-18-2011, 12:46 PM
Chargers and Raiders games this week are huge... if they both lose, which is totally possible... then Denver and Oakland are tied at 5-5, Chargers fall to 4-6. KC does whatever it does.

OAK and DEN locked at 5-5, split this year... both 2-2 within the AFCW. Denver is 5-3 in the AFC with Oakland at 5-4.

So many crazy scenarios... this one will likely go down to the wire and right now, the race can be won by any team.

It's just nice to be sitting here now... compared to what was happening a month ago. Ugly or not, it's better.

KurtCobain
11-18-2011, 12:47 PM
Yall need to back off the poor stoned guy.

Pawnmower
11-18-2011, 02:32 PM
http://t2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcTbWDkUVgLs2-UMFDL9Wk7KxlEY2pkz5fYIvSFkXaEEHfbHvQwtmg

Stanley Nickels
11-18-2011, 05:09 PM
Oh, for Tebow's sake...

BillSelfsTrophycase
11-18-2011, 05:12 PM
Jeez, Buck, it's not that hard.

Must

Resist...




Failed

That's what she said

Stanley Nickels
11-18-2011, 05:14 PM
Here, let's put it this way... If the opposite of MISSING the playoffs is...
I shouldn't have to explain that. Here is each team's chance of MAKING the playoffs:
Raiders: 48
Broncos: 42
Chargers: 15
Chiefs: 6

Each team should have a 25% chance if it were a random drawing. It's not. But the suckitude of the division this year means no team has a better than 50% chance of winning. I didn't read the article, and my brain is fried from work so im not sire if I'm missing some sarcasm, but I hope that explanation clears it up for those still somehow confused.

Stanley Nickels
11-18-2011, 05:16 PM
And, if you add those up, you get 111%. duh.

GordonGekko
11-18-2011, 05:36 PM
So basically the Chiefs have a 6% chance of winning out

..which seems high

-King-
11-18-2011, 06:00 PM
So basically the Chiefs have a 6% chance of winning out

..which seems high
Who said anything about winning out?
Posted via Mobile Device

Buck
11-18-2011, 06:01 PM
Oh hey this thread.

I still stand by my original statement that that site states that each team is likely to miss the playoffs.

bevischief
11-18-2011, 06:05 PM
I don't know. Every other division has at least one team below 50. Sorry. I need to sleep.

When you all prove you have a 169 IQ like me, I'll start listening to you.

wat?

bevischief
11-18-2011, 06:07 PM
The Broncos need to win enough to keep them from a quality QB
The Chargers need to win enough to keep Norv
The Raiders have to prove they won't shoot themselves in the foot before anyone will GAF

Works for me at this point.

bevischief
11-18-2011, 06:07 PM
that's why they call it DOPE...

I am thinking crack...

Stanley Nickels
11-18-2011, 06:09 PM
Oh hey this thread.

I still stand by my original statement that that site states that each team is likely to miss the playoffs.

:doh!:

Their math confuses me, but I don't see why you don't get this. Let's say four teams are trying to get into the playoffs. Let's say that ta coin flip would decide this. What are the odds that a team MISSES the playoffs? 75%. that's it..
Stated this way, would it help? Chances of missing the coin flip playoffs:
Raiders: 75%
Chargers: 75%
Broncos: 75%
Chiefs: 75%

Does that make each team likely to miss the playoffs? Sure, I guess, depending on your definition of "likely". But one will win. Same thing here, except some have a better chance (than 75%) of missing, and others have a better chance (LOWER than 75%) of making the playoffs. Methinks you're trolling, but I don't care.

Pawnmower
11-18-2011, 06:12 PM
:doh!:

Their math confuses me, but I don't see why you don't get this. Let's say four teams are trying to get into the playoffs. Let's say that ta coin flip would decide this. What are the odds each team MISSES the playoffs? 75%. that's it..
Stated this way, would it help? Chances of missing the coin flip playoffs:
Raiders: 75%
Chargers: 75%
Broncos: 75%
Chiefs: 75%



Im not trying to make this more complicated , but most people are only factoring winning the division into the situation.....You also have to add in the wildcard spots, which is why if you add each division up it comes to over 100%. That might by why the math is confusing you because you are not taking the wildcard spots into account in your example.

Stanley Nickels
11-18-2011, 06:14 PM
Im not trying to make this more complicated , but most people are only factoring winning the division into the situation.....You also have to add in the wildcard spots, which is why if you add each division up it comes to over 100%. That might by why the math is confusing you because you are not taking the wildcard spots into account in your example.

Bingo, thank you.

Buck
11-18-2011, 06:14 PM
:doh!:

Their math confuses me, but I don't see why you don't get this. Let's say four teams are trying to get into the playoffs. Let's say that ta coin flip would decide this. What are the odds that a team MISSES the playoffs? 75%. that's it..
Stated this way, would it help? Chances of missing the coin flip playoffs:
Raiders: 75%
Chargers: 75%
Broncos: 75%
Chiefs: 75%

Does that make each team likely to miss the playoffs? Sure, I guess, depending on your definition of "likely". But one will win. Same thing here, except some have a better chance (than 75%) of missing, and others have a better chance (LOWER than 75%) of making the playoffs. Methinks you're trolling, but I don't care.

I swear to God I'm not trolling.

The reason that it doesn't equal 100% that one team will make it and 106% is because the West has a 6% chance of a Wild Card I guess.

I'm not a retard, I know one team will make it, I just find it fascinating that not a single team is likely to make it, according to these numbers.

Mile High Mania
11-18-2011, 06:18 PM
I swear to God I'm not trolling.

The reason that it doesn't equal 100% that one team will make it and 106% is because the West has a 6% chance of a Wild Card I guess.

I'm not a retard, I know one team will make it, I just find it fascinating that not a single team is likely to make it, according to these numbers.

That's because there is a flaw... someone has to make it, so by default a team has to be likely.

alnorth
11-18-2011, 06:50 PM
Replace the word "Every" in the thread title with "Each", and we're good.

listopencil
11-18-2011, 07:05 PM
So...what happens if the Raiders and Chargers lose this weekend?

Pawnmower
11-18-2011, 07:06 PM
I swear to God I'm not trolling.

The reason that it doesn't equal 100% that one team will make it and 106% is because the West has a 6% chance of a Wild Card I guess.

I'm not a retard, I know one team will make it, I just find it fascinating that not a single team is likely to make it, according to these numbers.

This is correct, more or less...Imagine if each team was more or less equal (not really THAT far off)

Each team would have a 25% chance to win the division, and then the division would have a 6% chance of having one of the teams win a wild card.

Pawnmower
11-18-2011, 07:07 PM
So...what happens if the Raiders and Chargers lose this weekend?

that 6% chance of an AFC West wildcard probably goes to about 3-4%

milkman
11-18-2011, 07:15 PM
that 6% chance of an AFC West wildcard probably goes to about 3-4%

I'm pretty sure I don't need some complicated math equation to tell me that the chances of a wild card coming out of the west is virtually non-existent.