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bevischief
12-16-2011, 10:36 AM
http://www.arrowheadpride.com/2011/12/16/2640455/the-chiefs-need-a-qb-but-can-we-get-one-week-15-edition#storyjump

The Chiefs Need A QB, But Can They Get One?

Tiny by Wait and See on Dec 16, 2011 9:44 AM CST

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This article is an update to our QB draft analysis article from last week. The premise is the same:

An effective QB would improve the Chiefs more than an upgrade at any other position. There are four QBs expected to enter the upcoming draft that are considered good enough to start in their first season: Andrew Luck, Matt Barkley, Robert Griffin, and Landry Jones. This article, which was co-written by a friend, examines the likelihood of one of those players being available at the Chiefs draft slot.

The same disclaimers also apply:

The draft order will likely change. For example, how will the Chiefs perform under Crennel?
The QBs have yet to be fully analyzed, which could insert new players into the mix or cause one of the top 4 to nosedive.

Needs Perspective: Teams Who Need a Starting QB

The updated top 15 draft order is below. We include strength of schedule below because it's the first tiebreaker. Carolina has beaten Washington head to head and they're in the same conference, so Washington should get to pick first.

Star-divide
Pick # Team W L SOS
1 Colts 0 13 0.550
2 Rams 2 11 0.556
3 Vikings 2 11 0.574
4 Washington 4 9 0.479
5 Panthers 4 9 0.479
6 Browns 4 9 0.497
7 Dolphins 4 9 0.509
8 Jaguars 4 9 0.533
9 Buccaneers 4 9 0.550
10 Chiefs 5 8 0.479
11 Eagles 5 8 0.491
12 Bills 5 8 0.503
13 Cardinals 6 7 0.467
14 Seahawks 6 7 0.485
15 Chargers 6 7 0.509

Not much has changed from last week. The same four teams with a QB need and no recent expenditures on one remain ahead of us (Colts, Redskins, Browns and Dolphins). However, the Seahawks won last week and we lost, so we've increased separation on them from one draft slot to four.

Therefore, just like last week, assuming a static draft order and that teams that need QBs pick them, if the draft was tomorrow and the Chiefs stood pat, it's unlikely we'd get any of the top four. The two teams most likely to trade up, Seattle and Denver, remain the same. Tarvaris Jackson continues his mediocre play but can't claim the same lack of playmakers that could give Colt McCoy another year as the starter in Cleveland (and the Chiefs a shot at the fourth rated QB).

Historical Perspective: QBs Picked in the First Round

We also need to consider that losing teams generally have many needs in addition to QB. The table below shows how many QBs were taken in the top 9 (the picks prior to the projected Chiefs pick), and how many in the first round.
Year Top 9 Top 32
2011 2 4
2010 1 2
2009 2 3
2008 1 2
2007 1 2
2006 1 3
2005 1 3
2004 2 4
2003 2 4
2002 1 3

Updated trends:

On average, just over 1 QB is taken in the first 9 picks.
In all of the past ten drafts, at least two of the top four QBs were available at pick 10.
In six of the past ten drafts, at least three of the top four QBs were available at pick 10.

This situation is much improved from last week. Unless the QB situation around the league is worse than the typical situation of the past 10 years, this data indicates that the Chiefs have a good chance of having the opportunity to draft a highly touted QB in the first round. In fact, even in last year's draft, when four QBs were taken in the top 12, two of them were available at the tenth pick. In this year's draft that would translate to Landry Jones and either Robert Griffin III or Matt Barkley being available.

Will the Chiefs Take a QB?

Much of what we thought we knew is up in the air with the coaching change. First, if Stanzi gets to play, which seemed unlikely under Haley, and performs well, the Chiefs could be satisfied going into camp with Cassel, Stanzi, a later-round QB pick and/or Orton. Second, a highly touted coach like Cowher or Fisher could demand a high QB pick as a condition for taking the head coaching job. Third, there have been rumors that Pioli is comfortable with Cassel, which could cause him to skip picking a QB at all (I'd assume in that situation he'd try to finagle a huge trade back with a team that wanted a QB before Seattle or Buffalo get to pick).

Our current draft slot will almost definitely allow us to get a QB, but trying to decipher Pioli's intentions is almost impossible. So if you want us to take a QB, just take solace in the fact that historical trends make it look like we'll have a shot at a top-rated prospect.

Detoxing
12-16-2011, 10:40 AM
The only QB that'll be on the board at ten is Landry Jones.


Might as well say hello to our new RT.

Micjones
12-16-2011, 10:42 AM
Giggity giggity!

Brock
12-16-2011, 10:44 AM
There are quite a few teams ahead of the Chiefs that will probably end up with more wins. It's a good possibility.

Sofa King
12-16-2011, 10:48 AM
There are quite a few teams ahead of the Chiefs that will probably end up with more wins. It's a good possibility.

Us playing Oakland and Denver in the final 2 weeks is not good. We'll win at least 1 of those.

KC Tattoo
12-16-2011, 10:49 AM
I hate Phillis Rivers for fumbling that ball.

ChiefsCountry
12-16-2011, 10:49 AM
Another reason to hate McCluster

Brock
12-16-2011, 10:50 AM
Us playing Oakland and Denver in the final 2 weeks is not good. We'll win at least 1 of those.

I don't know what makes you say that.

DaKCMan AP
12-16-2011, 10:51 AM
If they want a QB they can get a QB. Atlanta wanted Julio Jones and moved up 21 spots to get him.

Sofa King
12-16-2011, 10:51 AM
I don't know what makes you say that.

Oakland sucks, Palmer sucks, etc.

And Denver is due for a collapse. Orton will be throwing bombs in that game.

Brock
12-16-2011, 10:52 AM
Oakland sucks, Palmer sucks, etc.

And Denver is due for a collapse. Orton will be throwing bombs in that game.

Meh, maybe. I don't think this team can beat anybody at this point.

Sofa King
12-16-2011, 10:57 AM
Meh, maybe. I don't think this team can beat anybody at this point.

It's the Chiefs. If a win will hurt us in any way, they'll get 2. If a loss will hurt us, they'll lose 3 in a row.

It's what they do.

okcchief
12-16-2011, 10:59 AM
If we lose our last 3 we will be where we need to be to get Barkley or RGIII. If not, we are screwed unless we trade up. We need to get ahead of Washington, Miami and Cleveland for sure.

okcchief
12-16-2011, 11:00 AM
It's the Chiefs. If a win will hurt us in any way, they'll get 2. If a loss will hurt us, they'll lose 3 in a row.

It's what they do.

So true :(

Dicky McElephant
12-16-2011, 11:01 AM
If they want a QB they can get a QB. Atlanta wanted Julio Jones and moved up 21 spots to get him.

This.

It will tell me a lot about this FO if they stand pat and draft an OT.

Fritz88
12-16-2011, 11:07 AM
If they want a QB they can get a QB. Atlanta wanted Julio Jones and moved up 21 spots to get him.

Exactly. That is why wishing your team to lose out wont help. In fact, I am beginning to believe it is idiotic. If the FO wants a QB, they will go and get one regardless of draft order. If they don't want, it doesn't matter. They won't get it.
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Dayze
12-16-2011, 11:09 AM
This.

It will tell me a lot about this FO if they stand pat and draft an OT.

yep. If they stand pat while there appears to be a Franchise QB there/slightly ahead of them etc, then it will define Pioli as much, or more than it will when he picks his next HC. Clark too, for that matter.


If theyr'e in position to draft a QB and dont' even attempt to, or maneuver to, and take OL etc, then you can pretty much write off this team at a minimum until Pioli is gone. And possibly until new ownership.

At that point, it'll be clear what their approach is; the same one that has failed them for 40+ years, along with countless other teams.

Okie_Apparition
12-16-2011, 11:31 AM
If Cassel didn't go to the pro bowl last year :whackit:
I'm a pretty sure Orton was next inline & they're both on the roster

Mr. Arrowhead
12-16-2011, 11:47 AM
do they calucate the strengeth of schedule by the oppenent you played, or do they include that percentage with the teams you have left to play as well

Baby Lee
12-16-2011, 11:56 AM
This situation is much improved from last week. Unless the QB situation around the league is worse than the typical situation of the past 10 years or the QB draft class is better than typical, this data indicates that the Chiefs have a good chance of having the opportunity to draft a highly touted QB in the first round.

EDIT TO ADD: some freaking obvious and salient information.

splatbass
12-16-2011, 12:02 PM
This.

It will tell me a lot about this FO if they stand pat and draft an OT.

I see a lot of people saying Pioli is likely to draft a OT, and even a couple that have said he has a history of it, but the fact remains that in NE and KC he has only drafted one OL in the 1st round, in 2005 - an OG. What makes you, and all these others, so sure he'll pick an OT if he doesn't take a QB?

FringeNC
12-16-2011, 12:02 PM
One thing to keep in mind...picks at the top should be more valuable than in the past because of new rookie wage scale.

vailpass
12-16-2011, 12:02 PM
Oakland sucks, Palmer sucks, etc.

And Denver is due for a collapse. Orton will be throwing bombs in that game.

LMAO

jd1020
12-16-2011, 12:03 PM
I see a lot of people saying Pioli is likely to draft a OT, and even a couple that have said he has a history of it, but the fact remains that in NE and KC he has only drafted one OL in the 1st round, in 2005 - an OG. What makes you, and all these others, so sure he'll pick an OT if he doesn't take a QB?

Maybe the needs of the team and players available?

1) QB
2) RT

loochy
12-16-2011, 12:04 PM
This thread makes me depressed

Halfcan
12-16-2011, 12:14 PM
I see us moving into the top five and then drafting a fat slacker D Linemen that was ranked being drafted in the second round. lol

Tribal Warfare
12-16-2011, 12:19 PM
The only QB that'll be on the board at ten is Landry Jones.


Might as well say hello to our new RT.

Or NT

Buckweath
12-16-2011, 12:27 PM
If they want a QB they can get a QB. Atlanta wanted Julio Jones and moved up 21 spots to get him.

Exactly. Pioli might have to overpay but JUST DO IT.

If Dimitroff who is considered a good GM gave that much for a WR, then I sure hope our franchise can do the same for a top QB prospect. And it`s not like we`ll have to move up 21 spots.

htismaqe
12-16-2011, 12:44 PM
The thread title is misleading. It should read:

The Chiefs Need A QB, But WILL They Get One?

whoman69
12-16-2011, 01:16 PM
Remaining schedules:

Redskins- @Giants, Vikings, @Eagles
should beat the Vikings

Dolphins- @Bills, @Pats, Jets
division rivals, ya never know

Browns- @Cardinals, @Ravens, Steelers
despite division rivals, not looking so good
maybe they'll stay with McCoy

Chiefs Pantalones
12-16-2011, 01:28 PM
If we stand pat, keep Matt Cassel as the starter and draft a retard with the pick, then watching my favorite team will feel frozen until we make the changes necessary. It's insane. Most of the fans on this site predict what's going to happen and it does happen. Why can't Pioli see this? Ego?