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View Full Version : Elections Dems up double digits in new Congressional Poll


dirk digler
01-24-2012, 04:41 PM
There is some quiet talk right now that the Dems have a chance to take back the House and keep the Senate.

We will see but this poll for the National Journal isn't good news for the Republicans.

Poll: Democrats By Eleven On Generic Congressional Ballot

A new poll conducted by United Technologies for the National Journal (http://www.nationaljournal.com/daily/poll-finds-voters-wary-of-congressional-gop-20120123) shows a double digit lead for Democrats on the generic congressional ballot test, which asks voters which party they would like to control Congress. Democrats are the choice of 48 percent, while Republicans get 37 percent of voters. It’s a large gap for Democrats compared their scores over the last few months — Dems have lead in various polls, but only by a few points, as its mostly been an even race.


The movement seems to stem from congressional Republicans falling down with with the political middle. “In late October, the two parties were virtually tied on that question, with Democrats holding a statistically insignificant 2-point advantage,” National Journal wrote. “The poll shows Democrats performing better among independent voters. Obama leads among this key group by 5 points, and independents preferred a Democratic-controlled House by an 8-point margin.”

Mr. Flopnuts
01-24-2012, 04:44 PM
I saw a great bumper sticker the other day. It said "Re-Elect No One!"

alnorth
01-24-2012, 04:51 PM
This poll is flawed. A traditional preference poll should pit Democrats vs Republicans, not Obama vs Republicans. The local representative is not running against Obama, he's running against some random Democrat you've barely heard of before.

Right now, most of the preference polls are roughly running about Republicans +3, with some variation, sometimes its GOP up 6 or 7, sometimes its a tie or Dems barely ahead, but right now it seems to be about GOP +3.

That isn't a good thing for the Dems, because a result that would foreshadow a neutral 50/50 tie would be about Dems +2 or +3. Although Dems have a registration advantage, the GOP more than makes up for it with the likely voter gap, thus a preference poll of about Dems +2 or +3 would result in a split decision nationally.

If the preference poll really did get to Dems +11, Pelosi would become speaker with a huge majority, but this poll is not showing that, its showing something else that is interesting, but of little or no use because there could be plenty of people willing to vote for Obama, but further down the ballot they vote for the same young nice-looking republican they voted for the last couple elections.

edit: woops. I guess I haven't been paying attention. I guess it isn't at about GOP +3 anymore, things have shifted recently. The RCP average is now roughly Dem +2, which would foreshadow possibly a split decision and a razer-thin majority for one of the parties.

In fact, the only pollster seeing a GOP advantage is the mad house of Ras. Still, its probably not Dems +11 yet.

dirk digler
01-24-2012, 04:57 PM
This poll is flawed. A traditional preference poll should pit Democrats vs Republicans, not Obama vs Republicans. The local representative is not running against Obama, he's running against some random Democrat you've barely heard of before.

Right now, most of the preference polls are roughly running about Republicans +3, with some variation, sometimes its GOP up 6 or 7, sometimes its a tie or Dems barely ahead, but right now it seems to be about GOP +3.

That isn't a good thing for the Dems, because a result that would foreshadow a neutral 50/50 tie would be about Dems +2 or +3. Although Dems have a registration advantage, the GOP more than makes up for it with the likely voter gap, thus a preference poll of about Dems +2 or +3 would result in a split decision nationally.

If the preference poll really did get to Dems +11, Pelosi would become speaker with a huge majority, but this poll is not showing that, its showing something else that is interesting, but of little or no use because there could be plenty of people willing to vote for Obama, but further down the ballot they vote for the same young nice-looking republican they voted for the last couple elections.

edit: woops. I guess I haven't been paying attention. I guess it isn't at about GOP +3 anymore, things have shifted recently. The RCP average is now roughly Dem +2, which would foreshadow possibly a split decision and a razer-thin majority for one of the parties.

In fact, the only pollster seeing a GOP advantage is the mad house of Ras

The poll does compare Dems to Reps:

A plurality of voters, 48 percent, now say they would prefer that Democrats win enough seats take control of the House, compared with 37 percent who would rather see Republicans maintain control. In late October, the two parties were virtually tied on that question, with Democrats holding a statistically insignificant 2-point advantage.

alnorth
01-24-2012, 05:05 PM
The poll does compare Dems to Reps:

ahh, I see. The story and the graphics kept talking about and hyping the irrelevant Obama vs Republican question, and they buried the only poll result that actually mattered.

OK, in that case I'm skeptical. I've either never heard of, or forgotten about ever seeing this United Technologies polling outfit. Presuming you dismiss Rasmussen (which many people do), we've had a couple polls only 2 weeks ago showing Dems +3 or +4, and similar results from 3 polls in Nov/Dec.

It is a gigantic shift, considering that a full third of the electorate are always with you and a full third are always against, so we're talking an 8 point shift out of about 35.

I need to see that confirmed several times before I believe it, because if that poll were accurate, we'd be headed to a massive anti-GOP wave election. In that unlikely scenario, the GOP would be protected in the Senate since they are lucky enough to be defending few seats this year, but Reid would keep some kind of a slim majority, and the house would be a wipeout.

BucEyedPea
01-24-2012, 05:13 PM
Probably because the Republicans are itching for another war when over 73% are not. They're tone deaf on the issue. Too bad, there weren't more questions to see what it was about the Rs besides siding with the rich.

I saw a poll the other day saying two thirds want different candidates. Forget where it was though.

But per dirk's link further down:

The drop in trust in congressional Republicans on the economy and the deficit reflects an overall collapse in confidence in the federal government. Only 31 percent of Americans say they have “a lot” or “some” confidence that the government “will make progress over the next year on the most important problems facing the country,” while two-thirds say they do not have “much confidence” or have “no confidence at all.”

orange
01-24-2012, 05:14 PM
Michael Steele was saying last week that he expected to lose the House if the GOP doesn't get it's act together. He was of course ripped by the right.

kstater
01-24-2012, 05:17 PM
Probably because the Republicans are itching for another war when over 73% are not. They're tone deaf on the issue. Too bad, there weren't more questions to see what it was about the Rs besides siding with the rich.

Holy sane BEP post. That was what I took away from the bits and pieces of the debate last night. Only caught a little during commercials of the KU game though.

dirk digler
01-24-2012, 05:24 PM
ahh, I see. The story and the graphics kept talking about and hyping the irrelevant Obama vs Republican question, and they buried the only poll result that actually mattered.

OK, in that case I'm skeptical. I've either never heard of, or forgotten about ever seeing this United Technologies polling outfit. Presuming you dismiss Rasmussen (which many people do), we've had a couple polls only 2 weeks ago showing Dems +3 or +4, and similar results from 3 polls in Nov/Dec.

It is a gigantic shift, considering that a full third of the electorate are always with you and a full third are always against, so we're talking an 8 point shift out of about 35.

I need to see that confirmed several times before I believe it, because if that poll were accurate, we'd be headed to a massive anti-GOP wave election. In that unlikely scenario, the GOP would be protected in the Senate since they are lucky enough to be defending few seats this year, but Reid would keep some kind of a slim majority, and the house would be a wipeout.

United Technologies appears to be the underwriter while National Journal runs the polls.

For the record Boehner said today he isn't worried about losing the House because of their redistricting but some people aren't buying that because of the dismal Republican approval numbers.

alnorth
01-24-2012, 06:18 PM
United Technologies appears to be the underwriter while National Journal runs the polls.

For the record Boehner said today he isn't worried about losing the House because of their redistricting but some people aren't buying that because of the dismal Republican approval numbers.

In similar news, both coaches from the Patriots and the Giants are confident in their chances of winning the super bowl, and both can probably explain their advantages.

Regarding redistricting, I think its a wash. The GOP's Texas win is going to be adjusted a bit, though not to the extreme that the Texas courts were going for. They will get some more seats in the south, but the Dems are going to pick up a lot in Illinois.

In CA, even though they went to an independent citizen's redistricting commission that is not allowed to consider where the incumbent lives, the CA Democrats sneakily figured out a way to start lots of astroturf non-partisan groups of "concerned citizens" (all of whom were briefed on what redistricting moves would benefit democrats) who significantly swayed the uninformed inexperienced and naive redistricting commission, while the CA GOP sat with their thumbs up their ass, not realizing what was going on until the maps were drawn and they realized they just got rolled.

The gains are going to offset, give or take a few seats one way or another.

suzzer99
01-24-2012, 06:36 PM
The right seems to be shooting off in 6 different directions at once right now. Definitely an identity crisis going on in the party. Also it seems even the rank-and-file are starting to realize that FoxNews is selling them a bill of goods and rebelling against the establishment guy that they're being told to vote for.

I think this is awesome. I have no problem with conservatives thinking for themselves on stuff. Hell I'd probably be one if they all did that. I just don't think a lot of them realize how much influence FNC has on their thinking.

BucEyedPea
01-24-2012, 07:07 PM
The right seems to be shooting off in 6 different directions at once right now. Definitely an identity crisis going on in the party. Also it seems even the rank-and-file are starting to realize that FoxNews is selling them a bill of goods and rebelling against the establishment guy that they're being told to vote for.

I think this is awesome. I have no problem with conservatives thinking for themselves on stuff. Hell I'd probably be one if they all did that. I just don't think a lot of them realize how much influence FNC has on their thinking.

I stopped watching it except on occasion. Now I switch around. It's for foxes.

ThatRaceCardGuy
01-24-2012, 07:21 PM
This poll is flawed. A traditional preference poll should pit Democrats vs Republicans, not Obama vs Republicans. The local representative is not running against Obama, he's running against some random Democrat you've barely heard of before.

Right now, most of the preference polls are roughly running about Republicans +3, with some variation, sometimes its GOP up 6 or 7, sometimes its a tie or Dems barely ahead, but right now it seems to be about GOP +3.

That isn't a good thing for the Dems, because a result that would foreshadow a neutral 50/50 tie would be about Dems +2 or +3. Although Dems have a registration advantage, the GOP more than makes up for it with the likely voter gap, thus a preference poll of about Dems +2 or +3 would result in a split decision nationally.

If the preference poll really did get to Dems +11, Pelosi would become speaker with a huge majority, but this poll is not showing that, its showing something else that is interesting, but of little or no use because there could be plenty of people willing to vote for Obama, but further down the ballot they vote for the same young nice-looking republican they voted for the last couple elections.

edit: woops. I guess I haven't been paying attention. I guess it isn't at about GOP +3 anymore, things have shifted recently. The RCP average is now roughly Dem +2, which would foreshadow possibly a split decision and a razer-thin majority for one of the parties.

In fact, the only pollster seeing a GOP advantage is the mad house of Ras. Still, its probably not Dems +11 yet.


Because the poll is not pro Republican right ? That MUST be the reason its flawed.

suzzer99
01-24-2012, 07:24 PM
I stopped watching it except on occasion. Now I switch around. It's for foxes.

My cousin is a very well-informed conservative. He watches FoxNews but also stuff like the Daily show and NBC nightly news or something. I have a lot of respect for his opinions because at least I know he's considered the other side.

mlyonsd
01-24-2012, 07:46 PM
My cousin is a very well-informed conservative. He watches FoxNews but also stuff like the Daily show and NBC nightly news or something. I have a lot of respect for his opinions because at least I know he's considered the other side.You give Chris Matthews a thrill up his leg.

BucEyedPea
01-24-2012, 07:56 PM
Because the poll is not pro Republican right ? That MUST be the reason its flawed.

He's not exactly a Republican. He's fairly liberal on some things.

SNR
01-24-2012, 08:13 PM
I saw a great bumper sticker the other day. It said "Re-Elect No One!"
Yeah yeah repost I know

http://a2.sphotos.ak.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ak-snc7/394924_10150528393542860_227273632859_8521071_845782162_n.jpg

whoman69
01-25-2012, 07:14 PM
they vote for the same young nice-looking republican they voted for the last couple elections.



There are young republicans? I thought you couldn't get in unless you voted for Dewey.

Ugly Duck
01-25-2012, 08:13 PM
My cousin is a very well-informed conservative. He watches FoxNews

Fox News viewers are less informed than people who don't watch any news, according to a new poll from Fairleigh Dickinson University.

"The results show us that there is something about watching Fox News that leads people to do worse on these questions than those who don’t watch any news at all."

This isn't the first study that has found that Fox News viewers more misinformed in comparison to others. Last year, a study from the University of Maryland found that Fox News viewers were more likely to believe false information about politics.

Bewbies
01-26-2012, 01:01 AM
There are young republicans? I thought you couldn't get in unless you voted for Dewey.

There are more young R's than there are D's who can balance a checkbook I bet. :evil:

Bewbies
01-26-2012, 01:04 AM
The right seems to be shooting off in 6 different directions at once right now. Definitely an identity crisis going on in the party. Also it seems even the rank-and-file are starting to realize that FoxNews is selling them a bill of goods and rebelling against the establishment guy that they're being told to vote for.

I think this is awesome. I have no problem with conservatives thinking for themselves on stuff. Hell I'd probably be one if they all did that. I just don't think a lot of them realize how much influence FNC has on their thinking.

The media is less trustworthy than the politicians we have elected. Both are in bed with each other and only concerned with personal fame and power.