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View Full Version : Economics Economy slowly improving. Fox News says it's a conspiracy.


Direckshun
02-15-2012, 01:29 PM
wat

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So is this a thing, now? I know a lot of you guys are plugged into the talk radio / Fox News gig.

What evidence is there that an improving economy is actually just fabricated bullshit intended to boost the POTUS?

KC native
02-15-2012, 01:37 PM
This should be entertaining.

jiveturkey
02-15-2012, 01:42 PM
I don't see how it couldn't have improved. Shit had hit the fan.

It certainly isn't great now but it's not like it had a direction other than up to head in after 2008.

Direckshun
02-15-2012, 01:49 PM
Waiting for Pete with his "people dropped out of the workforce and distorted the unemployment rate" shit.

Donger
02-15-2012, 01:57 PM
wat

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So is this a thing, now? I know a lot of you guys are plugged into the talk radio / Fox News gig.

What evidence is there that an improving economy is actually just fabricated bullshit intended to boost the POTUS?

Weird. I just heard her say that "some people say (the good news) numbers are fabricated."

What did you hear?

Donger
02-15-2012, 01:58 PM
I don't see how it couldn't have improved. Shit had hit the fan.

It certainly isn't great now but it's not like it had a direction other than up to head in after 2008.

Pretty much. And, if it is improving, it is despite Obama's "help," not because of it.

LiveSteam
02-15-2012, 02:02 PM
Its all gasbricated

KILLER_CLOWN
02-15-2012, 02:05 PM
Could it be the economy is not really improving?

jiveturkey
02-15-2012, 02:06 PM
Could it be the economy is not really improving?Does it still feel like 2008 to you?

KILLER_CLOWN
02-15-2012, 02:09 PM
Does it still feel like 2008 to you?

Actually fuel and grocery prices were less back then, is that improving?

Amnorix
02-15-2012, 02:10 PM
Actually fuel and grocery prices were less back then, is that improving?


There's more to an economy than fuel and grocery prices...

KILLER_CLOWN
02-15-2012, 02:11 PM
There's more to an economy than fuel and grocery prices...

So the economy improving is bad for the average joe?

La literatura
02-15-2012, 02:11 PM
Weird. I just heard her say that "some people say (the good news) numbers are fabricated."

What did you hear?

"Some people" is my favorite journalistic source.

Bewbies
02-15-2012, 02:15 PM
I know economies are local, but here in Atlanta I just don't see any improvement at all.

BucEyedPea
02-15-2012, 02:34 PM
The economy is being juiced for the election. If you get any financial investment letters the scene is not really that rosy.

Amnorix
02-15-2012, 02:54 PM
So the economy improving is bad for the average joe?


I want you to know, in all seriousness, that I have more rational arguments with my 7 year old.

alpha_omega
02-15-2012, 03:06 PM
I want you to know, in all seriousness, that I have more rational arguments with my 7 year old.

What does your 7 year old think about the economy? improving?

BucEyedPea
02-15-2012, 03:07 PM
What does your 7 year old think about the economy? improving?

LMAOROFL

Stewie
02-15-2012, 03:22 PM
Now that the banks have been given the foreclosure hammer again after a 16 month hiatus, we'll see how people feel in a few months.

Jawshco
02-15-2012, 04:43 PM
I don't think there is a conspiracy, but is the economic improvement being exaggerated by Libs to sway voters? I'd say it's pretty likely. The bias by both the liberal and conservative media outlets is laughable. The information age has not been kind to our political system.

Bewbies
02-15-2012, 07:43 PM
Under Bush 4.5% unemployment was horrible, under Obama under 9% is celebrated. No way I could see the media spinning news to benefit Obama. Not a chance.

La literatura
02-15-2012, 07:56 PM
Under Bush 4.5% unemployment was horrible, under Obama under 9% is celebrated. No way I could see the media spinning news to benefit Obama. Not a chance.

Is this serious? The newsmen certainly has a liberal worldview, but do you not see the difference between the two situations?

petegz28
02-15-2012, 08:01 PM
Is this serious? The newsmen certainly has a liberal worldview, but do you not see the difference between the two situations?

All I know is this President is using every excuse he can to continue to spend a ton of $'s we don't have.

HonestChieffan
02-15-2012, 08:07 PM
Is this serious? The newsmen certainly has a liberal worldview, but do you not see the difference between the two situations?

I think 4.5 is 50% of 9.0.
9.0 is 200% of 4.5

9.0% unemployment is twice as much as 4.5%

Bush was an (R) and to some a conservative.
Obama is a (D) and a avowed Progressive

Liberal worldview generally would say anything under a progressive is better than anything under a conservative.

To the unemployed person and the employer who once had a good employee, the difference is pretty stark. What situation do you see in the comparison that changes the impact of the facts?

Garcia Bronco
02-15-2012, 08:17 PM
The economy is being juiced for the election. If you get any financial investment letters the scene is not really that rosy.

It's not that bad either.

petegz28
02-15-2012, 08:21 PM
I think it's safe to say the economy is improving despite Obama moreso than because of.

dirk digler
02-15-2012, 08:22 PM
I think it's safe to say the economy is improving despite Obama moreso than because of.

So the economy is improving?

petegz28
02-15-2012, 08:43 PM
So the economy is improving?

Yes, slowly but surely. If the fucking Congress would get their shit together and the Fed get the fuck out of the way it would probably improve faster.

headsnap
02-15-2012, 09:00 PM
I know economies are local, but here in Atlanta I just don't see any improvement at all.

me either and I work in the 'jobs' business, we cover 22 markets mostly in the South but also have Indy, Chicago and Denver... still looking A LOT like 2008!

La literatura
02-15-2012, 09:19 PM
What situation do you see in the comparison that changes the impact of the facts?

Um, the 2008 mortgage/financial crisis.

HonestChieffan
02-15-2012, 09:21 PM
Um, the 2008 mortgage/financial crisis.


I assume you must be saying those things are over and fixed?

La literatura
02-15-2012, 09:22 PM
I assume you must be saying those things are over and fixed?

Why would you assume that?

HonestChieffan
02-15-2012, 09:26 PM
I was attempting to understand your incomplete sentence. Nevermind.

La literatura
02-15-2012, 09:33 PM
I was attempting to understand your incomplete sentence. Nevermind.

Do you understand now? The different situation is the 2008 financial/mortgage crisis.

Extra Point
02-15-2012, 09:53 PM
Do you understand now? The different situation is the 2008 financial/mortgage crisis.

The difference now is only the crisis' fallout. It's only the consumer, now.

Is that difference personal enough, for you?

KILLER_CLOWN
02-15-2012, 09:54 PM
I want you to know, in all seriousness, that I have more rational arguments with my 7 year old.

This explains quite a few things about you.

Bewbies
02-16-2012, 12:14 AM
me either and I work in the 'jobs' business, we cover 22 markets mostly in the South but also have Indy, Chicago and Denver... still looking A LOT like 2008!

Yep, economic improvement is currently supported by the same type of science behind global warming. The facts are determined by the desired outcome.

BIG_DADDY
02-16-2012, 12:23 AM
Someone is just trying to enjoy his wet dream.

Guru
02-16-2012, 12:52 AM
Not seeing an improvement in the economy here at all. all I see is everything getting higher in price while salaries stay stagnant. Lets not even talk about unemployment.

patteeu
02-16-2012, 05:17 AM
Under Bush 4.5% unemployment was horrible, under Obama under 9% is celebrated. No way I could see the media spinning news to benefit Obama. Not a chance.

If democrats didn't hold the whitehouse they'd be telling us that we have the worst economy since the great depression like they were when unemployment was 4.5%.

blaise
02-16-2012, 06:56 AM
If democrats didn't hold the whitehouse they'd be telling us that we have the worst economy since the great depression like they were when unemployment was 4.5%.

We're on the precipice of disaster. People are working harder now, for less.

RJ
02-16-2012, 09:07 PM
We're on the precipice of disaster. People are working harder now, for less.


I don't see that changing in the near future no matter what "the economy" does. If employees are currently doing more for less, what incentive could an employer ever have to pay them to do less for more? Or even less for the same?

It is a conundrum for sure.

patteeu
02-17-2012, 10:10 AM
I don't see that changing in the near future no matter what "the economy" does. If employees are currently doing more for less, what incentive could an employer ever have to pay them to do less for more? Or even less for the same?

It is a conundrum for sure.

Let's call it the Barack Conundrum. ;)

Chief Henry
02-17-2012, 10:32 AM
Under Bush 4.5% unemployment was horrible, under Obama under 9% is celebrated. No way I could see the media spinning news to benefit Obama. Not a chance.




The most recent CBO agrees with you. The report demolishes the
$825 Billion stimulous plan from 3 years ago.

petegz28
02-17-2012, 12:32 PM
The economy is getting better because the economy is "self-medicating". The Congress and Fed are hampering growth regardless of how well intentioned they may be. We have an underqualified group of unemployed people. They do not have the skills for todays more technical jobs. Therefore effors to aid people to re-train are a good idea. That pays off for the economy in the long run.

The flip-side is you have more and more regulations increasing the overall cost of doing business. Couple that with a Federal Reserve that is blindly holding interest rates and thus the $ at extremely low levels which is taking a ton of spending power out of the economy and you have the obstacles in which this economy does not need right now.

Housing is starting to show minimal gains but I think this exercise in quantitative easing over the last few years has shown itself to be not only worthless but hampering to growth. Housing has not done anything worth a squat despite super low interest rates. Businesses have not had credit extended to them despite super low interest rates What super low interest rates have given us is a spending void in places where we otherwise should be encouraging the spending.

Folks who live on fixed or semi-fixed incomes are seeing net-net negative returns on their savings accounts. This means they have to save more so naturally they spend less. "Savers" are being forced into more and more risky investments to chase yield which in turn hampers spending. Someone who is sure of making a safe 3%-5% on a savings account is going to spend more and more confidently than someone who is earning 3%-7% on a stock. A stock carries additional risks and therefore, despite the higher yields, these people are still worried about the stock price declining and therefore are saving on top of investing thus keeping the money out of the economy.

Then you take into account the extremely low US$. This has led to higher and higher food and energy prices. When costs of food and gas and electricity go up people have less to spend on discretionary items. Plus the costs of commodities in general going up impacts the cost on just about everything made. Copper has skyrocketed. Those costs cannot be eternally absorbed by businesses. They must at some point be passed onto the consumer thus raising the costs of goods.

These are but just a few of the problems but a big few.

Stewie
02-17-2012, 01:21 PM
The gov't numbers are manipulated.

Instead of looking at gov't unemployment numbers (manipulated) look at private employment numbers. Simple to find and horrific.

Look at M3. If it doesn't cry of an "unofficial" QE3 I don't know what does. Can we turn 5 cents of paper into $100 any faster?

I'd go on but who cares?

BucEyedPea
02-17-2012, 01:24 PM
Not to mention how quantative easing juices stocks but harms the little guy trying to make ends meet.
Obama = for the wealthy.

FD
02-17-2012, 04:42 PM
The most recent CBO agrees with you. The report demolishes the
$825 Billion stimulous plan from 3 years ago.

What did the CBO report conclude about the effect of the stimulus?

HonestChieffan
02-17-2012, 05:03 PM
This is interesting stuff. The debate over gas prices we anticipate, as well as the big jump in food prices people should expect, are even seen by Obama's people. Probably not something to expect in his campaign speeches however. We are getting hit by imports and the whole game of higher exports are the result of a super weak dollar.:

Payroll tax cut, meet $4 gas

While it's true that manufacturing jobs have been a bright spot in the U.S. recovery and exports have risen rapidly over the last two years, Obama often fails to mention the rise in imports too.
When imports rise faster than exports, it subtracts from U.S. economic growth. Since Obama announced his intention to double exports, they have risen 33.5%, but imports have grown even faster, up 36%.

The report comes just hours after Congress passed a bipartisan bill extending the payroll tax cut and unemployment benefits. Those programs are more likely to soften the blow of rising gas prices, than add to economic growth.
"The payroll tax cut provides some cushion for families in case they see their costs go up, possibly because of gasoline prices or for other reasons over the course of the year," said Alan Krueger, chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers.

Story here: http://money.cnn.com/2012/02/17/news/economy/obama_job_creation/index.htm

Interesting how CNN spins the story as a big positive on Job growth not Inflation

petegz28
02-17-2012, 05:35 PM
What did the CBO report conclude about the effect of the stimulus?

Seriously? I wouldn't expect you to fall for voo-doo economics. How can you prove a negative? There is absolutely no way in hell to say how things would have been without the stimulus. It's a fucking guess is all it is. A guess based on pure speculation. Without going down the path of no-stimulus you have no emprical evidence to support any claims whatsoever.

KC native
02-17-2012, 06:04 PM
The gov't numbers are manipulated.

Instead of looking at gov't unemployment numbers (manipulated) look at private employment numbers. Simple to find and horrific.

Look at M3. If it doesn't cry of an "unofficial" QE3 I don't know what does. Can we turn 5 cents of paper into $100 any faster?

I'd go on but who cares?


ROFL manipulated, could you be any more of a text book example of a gold bug?

alanm
02-18-2012, 09:11 AM
I don't see that changing in the near future no matter what "the economy" does. If employees are currently doing more for less, what incentive could an employer ever have to pay them to do less for more? Or even less for the same?

It is a conundrum for sure.Unless you're a teacher in Chicago and the union is going for a 30% raise in the next 2 yrs. The world is their oyster.PBJPBJPBJ

FD
02-18-2012, 12:05 PM
Seriously? I wouldn't expect you to fall for voo-doo economics. How can you prove a negative? There is absolutely no way in hell to say how things would have been without the stimulus. It's a ****ing guess is all it is. A guess based on pure speculation. Without going down the path of no-stimulus you have no emprical evidence to support any claims whatsoever.

I was just wondering what the CBO report said.

Now, as to your general point, I guess there are two ways of going about things. One way to test a counterfactual about the economy is to develop a model of the economy, incorporate insights from decades of study done by economists at universities and the private sector, test the model extensively and work to improve it and then use this model to help understand the question.

Alternatively, you could use The Petegz28 Method and form all your economic analyses by "guesses" and "pure speculation." You have your methods, they have theirs.