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View Full Version : The Myth of Drafting a NT


Sorter
04-09-2012, 09:30 PM
Since many mocks and people on this site have us taking a 3-4 NT with one of our early picks and seem rather enthused by the idea, I thought it would be prudent of me to address that very notion. As I believe milkman said in another thread, we were in a sub-package for close to 60% of our defensive snaps. After reviewing film, our most common sub-package for passing downs or against a pass heavy team (NE, GB, DT) is either our nickel 2-4-5 or a 2-3-6 with an extra safety(usually McGraw). Now, with this in mind, wouldn't it be better to use a high-caliber draft selection on a player that would play more often and provide a larger impact than one that would play 1, maybe 2 downs? The idea for a badass NT like Wilfork is nice, but the game is shifting away from its importance. Pass rushers, then DB's are vital to advance in the playoffs defensively due to the league becoming pass happy IMO.

Cliffs:
1. NT is not worth an early pick because we use sub packages w/o a NT on passing downs
2. The league is pass happy, which means more passing-based defenses.
3. tl/dr

whoman69
04-09-2012, 11:24 PM
To get to those passing sub packages, you have to be able to put the offense in a situation where they are forced to pass. If we're allowing them good yardage on first downs, they are going to force us to stay in our base package or go to a heavy package against two tight ends where most teams probably believe that the Chiefs are vulnerable.

beach tribe
04-09-2012, 11:35 PM
To get to those passing sub packages, you have to be able to put the offense in a situation where they are forced to pass. If we're allowing them good yardage on first downs, they are going to force us to stay in our base package or go to a heavy package against two tight ends where most teams probably believe that the Chiefs are vulnerable.

This. A good NT will give us more 3rd n longs setting up those packages that we were all salivating over in Direkshun's thread.

cdcox
04-09-2012, 11:49 PM
I agree with the fact that you aren't going to be in a base 3-4 for most of your snaps. Few teams are running a lot of base offensive sets with HB, FB, TE, and 2 WR. Most often they will drop the FB and put in 3 WR. If you stay in your base 3-4, that puts a LB or a S on the slot WR, which in 95% of cases is going to be a mismatch. You are better off pulling your NT and going with an extra corner. The problem with NTs are that very few of the fat asses that can take on 2 blockers in the run game can collapse the pocket in the passing game. If you can get one of those, you take it, but a 2-down fatty isn't a special player.

jspchief
04-10-2012, 12:57 AM
This. A good NT will give us more 3rd n longs setting up those packages that we were all salivating over in Direkshun's thread.

But does it take a good NT?

Seems like we were solid on first down with Kelly Gregg. I'd be interested in the actual 1st down numbers.

And if we can pull it off with Gregg, do we really need first round talent at the position?

ChiefMojo
04-10-2012, 05:07 AM
Very interesting point the OP brought up in this thread. With us being in the AFC West, that is even more likely to be in pass sub packages with Palmer, Manning and Rivers. One would think with the #11 pick you would take a player that is closer to a three down player at least.

I'm not against taking a NT, but would prefer it wasn't in the 1st round period.

Bewbies
04-10-2012, 10:42 AM
Personally I like Chapman, and he won't be going in the first.

O.city
04-10-2012, 10:43 AM
I'm excited about Powe, but would still lov eto have Chapman.

Chief Roundup
04-10-2012, 06:19 PM
I seen somewhere that chapman was injured and that he would have to start the season on PUP. If that is true is his draft status reflected already or will he fall further?

Bewbies
04-10-2012, 09:45 PM
I seen somewhere that chapman was injured and that he would have to start the season on PUP. If that is true is his draft status reflected already or will he fall further?

Maybe, especially for the teams that draft for one season.

milkman
04-11-2012, 09:04 AM
But does it take a good NT?

Seems like we were solid on first down with Kelly Gregg. I'd be interested in the actual 1st down numbers.

And if we can pull it off with Gregg, do we really need first round talent at the position?

If we draft Kuechly to replace Belcher, then yes, we definitely need that NT, because Gregg and Gordon were not taking up blockers the way you need from the nose, so Belcher was blowing up those blockers allowing others to make the plays.

Hoover
04-11-2012, 09:11 AM
Drafting a defensive lineman at 11 will give me an ulcer. We have had no luck at drafting a difference maker on the DL in the last decade, and it hasn't mattered if we drafted them at pick 3, 5, or 6 so I have my doubts of finding the solution at 11. Hell, Tamba Hali didn't live up to his billing until we put him in the 3/4.

whoman69
04-11-2012, 12:37 PM
Drafting a defensive lineman at 11 will give me an ulcer. We have had no luck at drafting a difference maker on the DL in the last decade, and it hasn't mattered if we drafted them at pick 3, 5, or 6 so I have my doubts of finding the solution at 11. Hell, Tamba Hali didn't live up to his billing until we put him in the 3/4.

Same excuse the Chiefs have been giving for not drafting a QB since '83

Hoover
04-11-2012, 05:31 PM
Same excuse the Chiefs have been giving for not drafting a QB since '83
No it's not.

We have not taken a QB in round one since 1983, that's not the case with the DLine where we have invested six first round picks. I would not bitch about taking a QB, as long as we are not reaching too far. If they want to roll the dice have at it.

whoman69
04-11-2012, 07:40 PM
No it's not.

We have not taken a QB in round one since 1983, that's not the case with the DLine where we have invested six first round picks. I would not bitch about taking a QB, as long as we are not reaching too far. If they want to roll the dice have at it.

Dorsey was drafted as a 4/3 lineman. While he has improved his game against the run, he is invisible in the pass rush. He's probably still better off in a 4/3. Jackson is getting better as evidence that he broke through and got a few sacks last year. We still don't have a lineman that can rush the pass when we are in base defense, which we were caught in on a huge number of plays last year. Those deficiencies are going to be more readily apparent when a Peyton Manning is added to the division.

buddha
04-12-2012, 12:23 PM
A great NG is a necessity in a 3-4. The problem is that there isn't a great NG out there this year.

Bewbies
04-12-2012, 12:36 PM
With River, Manning, Palmer, do you think the Chiefs should prepare run first with a player like Belcher? Or pass first?

How far would it be wise to move up to guarantee we get Kuechly?

buddha
04-12-2012, 12:49 PM
You tell us genius. You seem to do nothing but pick at other people's conversations without having a single positive thing to add of your own. Please tell us Bewbies, who do you want at #11?

Bewbies
04-12-2012, 01:06 PM
You tell us genius. You seem to do nothing but pick at other people's conversations without having a single positive thing to add of your own. Please tell us Bewbies, who do you want at #11?

I think there's more chance we get Luck at 11 than us picking in that spot. Personally I want a QB, or more first round picks so we can move up next year. If Pioli doesn't like Tannehill get those picks..

If we were to stay at 11 I'd be looking at the pass rushers, Barron or Kirkpatrick.

buddha
04-12-2012, 02:02 PM
Fair enough.

Which pass rushers do you like the best?

Bewbies
04-12-2012, 04:46 PM
Fair enough.

Which pass rushers do you like the best?

The only one I don't like mentioned is Couples. How well some fit/don't fit I don't know for sure.

What I do know, if you're gonna roll with Cassel we have to have one of the best defense's of all time if we want to win anything. Another pass rusher would help that a lot.

Like I said though, we aren't picking at 11. Hell, if we moved down into the bottom of the first and picked up at least another #1 next year I'd really be okay with anyone. Including DeCastro and Kuechly.

buddha
04-12-2012, 05:48 PM
Couples = major bust. I'd be willing to bet anything on that.

milkman
04-14-2012, 09:46 AM
With River, Manning, Palmer, do you think the Chiefs should prepare run first with a player like Belcher? Or pass first?

I fully understand that this is a passing league, but you still need to be able to defend the run, and you still need that physical presence in the middle, which I do not believe that Kuechly will bring.

Chiefshrink
04-14-2012, 12:57 PM
Couples = major bust. I'd be willing to bet anything on that.

and he is a 4/3 end rusher not a 3/4 type.

O.city
04-14-2012, 01:19 PM
The pass rushers and sub package getting after the quarterback idea is really great and sexy, but you have to stop the run before teams get to those downs.


Or atleast you used to, hell now teams throw nearly every down.