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Count Alex's Losses
08-20-2012, 01:28 AM
Welp, pack it up.


Why San Diego will win AFC West
By KC Joyner

The general perception about the San Diego Chargers seems to be that their window of championship contention is closed. This mindset is so prevalent that ESPN.com AFC West blogger Bill Williamson recently noted, "The nation has become tired of the Chargers. [They have] been a perennial popular early Super Bowl pick but have fallen short of the playoffs the past two seasons. As a result, not much attention is being paid to the team anymore."

While the frustration with this club is certainly understandable, the Chargers shouldn't be dismissed as a playoff contender. In fact, the Chargers should be considered the favorites to win the AFC West.

Here are five reasons why:

Philip Rivers is the best quarterback in the division

The addition of Peyton Manning to the Denver offense has many believing that the Broncos have the best quarterback in the AFC West, but Rivers is still the king of passers in this division.

His perceived drop-off last year was nowhere near as precipitous as generally thought. As I pointed out in my 2012 fantasy football draft guide, Rivers still had over 600 pass attempts at a 7.9 yards per attempt (YPA) clip (ninth best in the league) and accounted for 28 touchdowns in 2011. His 216 vertical pass attempts tied for third with Cam Newton in that metric, and his 12.0 vertical YPA (VYPA, which accounts for passes thrown 11 or more yards downfield) was tied for ninth. He wasn't far from being an extremely productive quarterback.

Now contrast that to Manning's last full season in Indianapolis in 2010. His 9.7 VYPA in that campaign (ranked tied for 26th) was an anchor that dragged down his overall YPA (6.9, tied for 21st). Even if his four neck procedures get him back to that level, he will likely fall well short of posting top-flight vertical numbers -- and if his arm strength has faltered to any extent, it could be a huge problem for the Broncos.

The Chargers have the best set of receivers in the AFC West

San Diego did take a big personnel hit at wide receiver when it lost Vincent Jackson to free agency, but the Chargers are still stocked with quality pass-catchers.

It starts with Antonio Gates, whose dominance has been tempered the past couple of years because of injuries. Those physical ailments may be behind him at this point, according to Chargers Pro Bowl safety Eric Weddle. Weddle, who faces Gates every day in practice, recently said, "He is going to be the best tight end in the NFL this year ... He hasn't looked this good since my rookie season."

San Diego also has great vertical threats in Malcom Floyd (whose 13.1 VYPA ranked ninth out of the 31 wide receivers to tally at least 50 vertical targets last year) and Robert Meachem (14.4 VYPA on 35 vertical targets). Add Vincent Brown (who had a 9.5 YPA last year and has been impressive in training camp) and Eddie Royal (who was making quite a splash at camp prior to suffering a groin injury) and it makes for the deepest set of pass-catchers in this division.

The Chargers have the best running back in the division

Every team in the AFC West can make a case to have the dominant lead running back in this division. It just happens that Ryan Mathews' case is the strongest.

It starts with Mathews' 8.6-yard mark in the good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA) category that measures rushing productivity on plays with good blocking (which is very roughly defined as when the offense doesn't allow the defense to do anything to disrupt a rush attempt). That total ranked tied for fourth among running backs with at least 90 good blocking rush attempts.

Now contrast that to Oakland. The Raiders have an explosive ball carrier in Darren McFadden, but McFadden has more significant injury concerns than Mathews. Plus, Mathews' GBYPA last year was slightly better than the 8.5 GBYPA McFadden posted in his dominant 2010 season, showing he can be just as productive.

The Chiefs have Jamaal Charles and Peyton Hillis, but Charles is rebounding from an ACL injury and Hillis was the least productive running back in the NFL in the GBYPA metric in 2011.

Denver has Willis McGahee and the fact that he was tied with Mathews in the GBYPA category last year makes this race close in that category. However, McGahee will be 31 years old in October and has posted only one season with more than 250 rushes/receptions over the past four years.

San Diego had the best draft of any team in the division

The Chargers posted a B-plus grade in Mel Kiper's 2012 NFL draft grades, a mark that was higher than the grade given to Denver (C-plus), Kansas City (C-plus) or Oakland (C-minus).

It isn't just the first impression that makes these picks stand out. Rivers recently had high praise for first-round pick Melvin Ingram, and early impressions of second-round pick Kendall Reyes have been extremely positive.

San Diego's defensive woes aren't nearly as bad as generally thought

San Diego's strength on offense might not be enough to vault them to a division title if the defense doesn't hold up its end of the bargain, which is something it didn't do in many ways last season. San Diego ranked tied for 25th in yards per play allowed, 22nd in points allowed and tied for 27th in passing touchdowns allowed.

But it wasn't all bad for the Chargers defense in 2011. Their 2.8 percent forced bad decision rate (a metric that gauges a defense's ability to generate mental errors by opposing quarterbacks) ranked 15th in the league and helped lead to 17 interceptions (ranked 13th).

San Diego also has a very good coverage player in Antoine Cason, as his 5.5 YPA-allowed mark ranked tied for 10th among cornerbacks.

Quentin Jammer, Cason's battery mate at cornerback, used to post numbers near Cason's level but fell off dramatically last season (11.5 YPA) in part because of some off-field personal issues. Now that those issues look to be resolved, it wouldn't be a surprise to see Jammer get back to his previous consistent coverage totals.

Add that level of improved secondary play with the aforementioned impact of Ingram and Reyes (who could work wonders for a pass rush that tallied only 31 sacks last year) and it should equal a much better performance on this side of the ball in 2012.

Combine those factors with the Chargers' motivation to prove the world wrong (something Williamson notes will work as a strong incentive for this team) and it gives San Diego the inside track to win the AFC West.

BossChief
08-20-2012, 01:31 AM
ROFL

Hog Farmer
08-20-2012, 01:32 AM
there is so much wrong with this article. Tha fact Norv Turner is their coach keeps this team from ever being a contender.

Raiderhader
08-20-2012, 01:35 AM
Maybe I misunderstood who was injured but, doesn't Ryan Mathews have a broken collar bone or something along those lines?

BigMeatballDave
08-20-2012, 01:44 AM
The Chargers have the best running back in the divisionLOL

Okay.

mcaj22
08-20-2012, 01:46 AM
is this really written by some bozo named KC Joyner?

you would think a guy with the nickname KC would homer with the Chiefs. Burn the traitor

Count Alex's Losses
08-20-2012, 01:47 AM
If Charles is less than 90 percent, Mathews (when he recovers from his collarbone) is probably better.

He was good last year.

If Charles is Charles, KC Joyner is full of shit.

TinyEvel
08-20-2012, 01:48 AM
"But it wasn't all bad for the Chargers defense in 2011. Their 2.8 percent forced bad decision rate (a metric that gauges a defense's ability to generate mental errors by opposing quarterbacks) ranked 15th in the league and helped lead to 17 interceptions (ranked 13th)."

Ah yes, the "forced bad decision rate" every NFL prognosticator's secret weapon.

LMAO

Direckshun
08-20-2012, 01:51 AM
If Charles is less than 90 percent, Mathews (when he recovers from his collarbone) is probably better.

He was good last year.

If Charles is Charles, KC Joyner is full of shit.

Charles
McFadden

Then everybody else.

BigMeatballDave
08-20-2012, 01:51 AM
If Charles is less than 90 percent, Mathews (when he recovers from his collarbone) is probably better.

He was good last year.

If Charles is Charles, KC Joyner is full of shit.

4.3 yrd average?

No.

Big Smoke
08-20-2012, 01:52 AM
If Charles is less than 90 percent, Mathews (when he recovers from his collarbone) is probably better.

He was good last year.

If Charles is Charles, KC Joyner is full of shit.

Mathews isn't anything special. I'll take Charles at 90% over Mathews.

Count Alex's Losses
08-20-2012, 01:52 AM
4.3 yrd average?

No.

4.9 YPC last year, and 50 catches.

He's a very good RB.

Hog Farmer
08-20-2012, 01:55 AM
Hell Hillis is better than Matthews. This dude is smoking crack.

Munson
08-20-2012, 01:57 AM
That article is full of fail.

He claims that the Chargers have the best RBs and WRs in the division. What a joke! ROFL

Chiefs=Good
08-20-2012, 02:07 AM
FUCKING LOL @ best running back in division. Charles, mcfadden and hillis may have something to say about that. LMAO

BigMeatballDave
08-20-2012, 02:21 AM
4.9 YPC last year, and 50 catches.

He's a very good RB.He's very unproven and injury prone.

saphojunkie
08-20-2012, 02:29 AM
Robert meachem and Malcolm Floyd - hall of fame.

What a joke.

saphojunkie
08-20-2012, 02:30 AM
The chargers had matthews, rivers, gates, and Vincent Jackson last year and still didn't win the division. Put down the pipe, Joyner.

KILLER_CLOWN
08-20-2012, 02:32 AM
LOL

Okay.

No they don't not even close. I guess the bolts have their own version of knowmo and he writes bad articles.

BillSelfsTrophycase
08-20-2012, 02:47 AM
Has there been a more overrated team in the past 10 years than the Chargers?

KCrockaholic
08-20-2012, 02:51 AM
Even once Mathews returns what makes anyone expect him to be able to lower his shoulder into a defender?

It's a broken collarbone, and unless they keep him out until November he wont be ready to take another big hit. He's fragile. He fumbles at inopportune times. He doesn't have any elite qualities.

saphojunkie
08-20-2012, 02:59 AM
Even once Mathews returns what makes anyone expect him to be able to lower his shoulder into a defender?

It's a broken collarbone, and unless they keep him out until November he wont be ready to take another big hit. He's fragile. He fumbles at inopportune times. He doesn't have any elite qualities.

They also lost their probowl left tackle, pro bowl WR, and Vincent brown is out until week 8 or 9. Oh, and Leatherneck is still the coach.

KCrockaholic
08-20-2012, 03:05 AM
They also lost their probowl left tackle, pro bowl WR, and Vincent brown is out until week 8 or 9. Oh, and Leatherneck is still the coach.

Forgot to mention they lost their best goal line back.

Funny thing is, the Chargers are a team on the decline...Yet they still have potential to finish 2nd in the division IMO. Because they have a baller QB. And yes he makes a lot of mistakes, but they will also win games because of him.

Munson
08-20-2012, 03:58 AM
Their passing game is worse off without Vincent Jackson.

So who is their #1 WR now, Floyd or Meachem?

jspchief
08-20-2012, 05:29 AM
I can't remember another rb that was as over-hyped as Mathews has been. The media has been talking up this guy since his rookie preseason, and really has shown very little to earn it.

Luke Warm
08-20-2012, 06:51 AM
ROFL

I need to take a shit.

JD10367
08-20-2012, 06:53 AM
there is so much wrong with this article. Tha fact Norv Turner is their coach keeps this team from ever being a contender.

/thread

Marcellus
08-20-2012, 07:14 AM
They also lost their probowl left tackle, pro bowl WR, and Vincent brown is out until week 8 or 9. Oh, and Leatherneck is still the coach.

I image this is an old article Clay dug up to troll with or else all those injuries would have been mentioned. If that is his prediction despite the injuries, Joyner is probably Clay.

BoneKrusher
08-20-2012, 07:17 AM
That article is full of fail.

He claims that the Chargers have the best RBs and WRs in the division. What a joke! ROFL

yep.

the Chargers own the best QB in the division...
until Manning proves he's 100%, which probably wont happen.

BigMeatballDave
08-20-2012, 07:18 AM
I image this is an old article Clay dug up to troll with or else all those injuries would have been mentioned. If that is his prediction despite the injuries, Joyner is probably Clay.

Dated Aug. 6.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/8239190/nfl-why-san-diego-chargers-favorites-afc-west

Marcellus
08-20-2012, 07:25 AM
Dated Aug. 6.

http://insider.espn.go.com/nfl/story/_/id/8239190/nfl-why-san-diego-chargers-favorites-afc-west

Clay digs up a 2 week old article to troll with. He is such a valuable member of CP, we couldn't have threads like this without him.

Count Alex's Losses
08-20-2012, 08:48 AM
I saw it posted on the Mane last night, relax.

TEX
08-20-2012, 10:35 AM
The myth of Phillip Rivers far outweighs the substance. He just never gets it done for whatever reason. Great stats, but...

Brock
08-20-2012, 10:36 AM
The Chargers have the best set of receivers in the AFC West

ROFL Didn't read past that.

SNR
08-20-2012, 11:09 AM
Knowmo actually belongs to a secret society that predicates the kind of homerism not natural to the football world. In the society there's not only Knowmo, but a fan from every single NFL team. Except the Jaguars, of course. They don't have any fans.

We just encountered the Chargers fan.

Gadzooks
08-20-2012, 11:51 AM
Knowmo actually belongs to a secret society that predicates the kind of homerism not natural to the football world. In the society there's not only Knowmo, but a fan from every single NFL team. Except the Jaguars, of course. They don't have any fans.

We just encountered the Chargers fan.

KC isn't a Charger fan. He's merely stating the facts.

Big Smoke
08-20-2012, 11:54 AM
KC isn't a Charger fan. He's merely stating the facts.

Yeah. Good one. ROFL

Pasta Giant Meatball
08-20-2012, 12:56 PM
If Charles is less than 90 percent, Mathews (when he recovers from his collarbone) is probably better.

He was good last year.

If Charles is Charles, KC Joyner is full of shit.

Wake me when he sniffs 6 YPC.

Pasta Giant Meatball
08-20-2012, 12:58 PM
KC Joyner = Gazooks

Sofa King
08-20-2012, 01:05 PM
I've noticed the Chargers fans have really stepped up their trolling efforts. In direct response to that, I've noticed the Chief fans have amped up their "Don't give a shit" mentality in regards to what those trolls are saying.

So few people really care about the Chargers around here.

Flachief58
08-20-2012, 01:10 PM
Best rb in the division?

SNR
08-20-2012, 01:17 PM
KC isn't a Charger fan. He's merely stating the facts.
Ah, so you're the R'as al Ghul of this League of Homers then.

Ceej
08-20-2012, 01:23 PM
It's weird knowmo wrote this article.

I swore he was a Broncos fan.

Gadzooks
08-20-2012, 02:02 PM
I've noticed the Chargers fans have really stepped up their trolling efforts.

I know, eh? Buck has almost been unbearable lately with all of his "Chargers to the ship" stuff.LMAO

Psyko Tek
08-20-2012, 04:07 PM
Has there been a more overrated team in the past 10 years than the Chargers?

the cowboys?

Guru
08-20-2012, 04:23 PM
HOLY CRAP

WOW

ROFL

Tombstone RJ
08-20-2012, 05:12 PM
yah, there's all sorts of fail with this article. Joyner is basically making crap up to justify his opinion. I love the part about the defense. He basically admits the defense sucked last year but with some magical leap of creative reasoning he now thinks--without a shred of proof mind you--that the defense will be better this year.

Joyner "The SD defense was lousy last year but it's going to be much better this year because of some rookies who have never played a down of football in the NFL and some random stat I pulled out of my ass, oh yah, and because Jammer is not gonna be a head case again."

really?

O.city
08-20-2012, 05:15 PM
yah, there's all sorts of fail with this article. Joyner is basically making crap up to justify his opinion. I love the part about the defense. He basically admits the defense sucked last year but with some magical leap of creative reasoning he now thinks--without a shred of proof mind you--that the defense will be better this year.

Joyner "The SD defense was lousy last year but it's going to be much better this year because of some rookies who have never played a down of football in the NFL and some random stat I pulled out of my ass, oh yah, and because Jammer is not gonna be a head case again."

really?

Couldn't you pretty much replace Chargers, with Broncos and it read the same?

Tombstone RJ
08-20-2012, 05:20 PM
Couldn't you pretty much replace Chargers, with Broncos and it read the same?

ok, but couldn't you replace SD with any other team in the AFCW too and get the same conclusion?

O.city
08-20-2012, 05:21 PM
ok, but couldn't you replace SD with any other team in the AFCW too and get the same conclusion?

Overall, probably so


About the defense, not so much.

Tombstone RJ
08-20-2012, 05:29 PM
Overall, probably so


About the defense, not so much.

yah, Joyner is just manipulating the numbers a little too much to fit his argument and his wierd stats are part of his opinion. Really, you can make stats say just about anything you want. Heck, there are probably stats that prove Cassel is the best QB in the AFCW.

Is SD gonna be better, probably, yes. I doubt Rivers stinks it up as bad as he did last year but we shall see. That being said I can argue that all the teams in the AFCW are going to be better this year. Heck all I have to say is that IF Cassel has a mediocre year kc will win the AFCW.

Pasta Giant Meatball
08-20-2012, 05:33 PM
The article is shit, but I do think they have a better QB and defense than Denver. Soooo....

KCtotheSB
08-20-2012, 05:34 PM
If Charles is less than 90 percent, Mathews (when he recovers from his collarbone) is probably better.

He was good last year.

If Charles is Charles, KC Joyner is full of shit.

This may be your worst post.
Ever.

Ryan Mathews is dog shit.

Tombstone RJ
08-20-2012, 05:36 PM
The article is shit, but I do think they have a better QB and defense than Denver. Soooo....

fair enough, I guess we will find out real soon. The season can't get here fast enough IMHO.

Pasta Giant Meatball
08-20-2012, 05:36 PM
This may be your worst post.
Ever.

Ryan Mathews is dog shit.

It's hilarious how bad he is at judging guys.

Gadzooks
08-20-2012, 07:59 PM
Charles reminds me a lot of CJ2K (I hate that nick name BTW...:rolleyes:)
This will be a huge season for him. If I were a Chiefs fanboy, like most of you, I would be very concerned in terms of how he rebounds from last season's injury.
Will he be tentative hitting the hole? (that's what she said)
Will he have lost a step?
Will his new Nike panties fit as snuggly as his Reebok panties?
The list goes on and on... I expect him to take a step back.
Hillis was a nice signing but he may be a member of the CIA, FBI or KGB before the season starts.
Either way the RB argument is off the table for the time being but the rest of the points in the article remain valid.
Chargers to the ship!!!11!!!!

J Diddy
08-20-2012, 08:07 PM
"Their woes aren't as bad as previously thought"

Yep thats a convincing argument right there.

A Salt Weapon
08-20-2012, 08:46 PM
"It starts with Mathews' 8.6-yard mark in the good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA) category that measures rushing productivity on plays with good blocking (which is very roughly defined as when the offense doesn't allow the defense to do anything to disrupt a rush attempt)."

Under this same logic, 2011 charles probably averaged about 40-60 good blocking yards per attempt (GBYPA).
Must be fun to make up stat categories.

Oh yeah, newb here, hello everybody.
Posted via Mobile Device

Pasta Giant Meatball
08-21-2012, 09:35 AM
Charles reminds me a lot of CJ2K (I hate that nick name BTW...:rolleyes:)This will be a huge season for him. If I were a Chiefs fanboy, like most of you, I would be very concerned in terms of how he rebounds from last season's injury.
Will he be tentative hitting the hole? (that's what she said)
Will he have lost a step?
Will his new Nike panties fit as snuggly as his Reebok panties?
The list goes on and on... I expect him to take a step back.
Hillis was a nice signing but he may be a member of the CIA, FBI or KGB before the season starts.
Either way the RB argument is off the table for the time being but the rest of the points in the article remain valid.
Chargers to the ship!!!11!!!!

Agreed it is lame as all hell. I call him CJ1K ROFL

SNR
08-21-2012, 09:45 AM
Charles reminds me a lot of CJ2K (I hate that nick name BTW...:rolleyes:)
This will be a huge season for him. If I were a Chiefs fanboy, like most of you, I would be very concerned in terms of how he rebounds from last season's injury.
Will he be tentative hitting the hole? (that's what she said)
Will he have lost a step?
Will his new Nike panties fit as snuggly as his Reebok panties?
The list goes on and on... I expect him to take a step back.
Without trying to sound too much like Knowmo, preseason is the perfect time to analyze players returning from injury. The speed isn't QUITE what it is during the regular season, but it doesn't need to be to see how strong a player's knee is and if it can stand punishment.

So far both Charles and Berry have been back to normal. Berry especially, but Charles also looks quite, quite good. There is absolutely no reason to expect a downgrade in production from 2010 especially considering our improved offensive line.

So my advice is to keep expecting him to take a step back. That will work well for you. But right now you have a broken collarbone to your starting RB that is a far more pressing worry for you. Charles can actually play right now. Matthews can not.

Go drink some pee.

Count Alex's Losses
08-21-2012, 10:25 AM
This may be your worst post.
Ever.

Ryan Mathews is dog shit.

Only on CP is a guy who averages 4.9 YPC while racking up 1500 total yards dogshit.

The same place little DMC is a playmaker.

And people think I'm trolling.

jd1020
08-21-2012, 10:31 AM
Should have stopped after the first reason.

Rivers is the only argument you can make for the Chargers winning the division.

TEX
08-21-2012, 10:37 AM
Should have stopped after the first reason.

Rivers is the only argument you can make for the Chargers winning the division.

But look farther into that statemant and you really can't.

Gadzooks
08-21-2012, 05:11 PM
Without trying to sound too much like Knowmo, preseason is the perfect time to analyze players returning from injury. The speed isn't QUITE what it is during the regular season, but it doesn't need to be to see how strong a player's knee is and if it can stand punishment.

So far both Charles and Berry have been back to normal. Berry especially, but Charles also looks quite, quite good. There is absolutely no reason to expect a downgrade in production from 2010 especially considering our improved offensive line.

So my advice is to keep expecting him to take a step back. That will work well for you. But right now you have a broken collarbone to your starting RB that is a far more pressing worry for you. Charles can actually play right now. Matthews can not.

Go drink some pee.

This is the type of refuse that knowmo can only dream of typing out. Do you two share a template to write this type homeristic drivel?
The Chiefs have 3 broke dick players that they're counting on to overcome Casshole's deficiencies, (you forgot Moeaki). Good luck with that fanboy.
I look forward to making you drink your own pee again this season. I would like to make it a yearly, if not weekly, tradition.
Chargers to the ship!!!11!!!!eleventy!!
(BTW - I'm not trolling. I'm merely trying to start a football based discusssion)