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View Full Version : General Politics Intrade has Obama at 68% sure win. We have historic campaign collapse


Lightrise
09-18-2012, 10:09 AM
This thing is spiraling out of control so fast Romney's advisors cannot possibly hatch a damage control strategy. Mother Jones will drip drip drip this out toward the debate and expectations will be incredibly high. The entire country won't be tuning in to make a decision, they will be tuning in to see Mitt Romney make a fool of himself. There is simply a lack of understanding of the country on the part of Romney and this campaign.

One thing to watch, the state of Georgia! It's closer than anybody believed possible and if the establishment gives up and doesn't vote this one may make national headlines. Ohio and Virginia are definitely goners now. Florida is next and the flood waters will flow.

La literatura
09-18-2012, 10:12 AM
If it keep on rainin', the levee gonna break . . .

KC native
09-18-2012, 10:19 AM
Intrade is garbage. Thinly traded and easily manipulated.

RINGLEADER
09-18-2012, 11:11 AM
Is this the same Intrade that said Hillary Clinton would be president?

jjjayb
09-18-2012, 12:51 PM
Keep saying it over and over and it may eventually come true eh Lightrise?

FD
09-18-2012, 05:01 PM
Intrade is garbage. Thinly traded and easily manipulated.

Then you should profit off its wrongness. Thats the nice thing about prediction markets, you can put your money where your mouth is.

KC native
09-18-2012, 10:46 PM
Then you should profit off its wrongness. Thats the nice thing about prediction markets, you can put your money where your mouth is.

Hehe I couldn't trade it if I wanted too .

RINGLEADER
09-18-2012, 11:40 PM
So how does this thing work? If I went in and offered thousands to buy up Romney contracts could I single-handedly move this market?

KC native
09-19-2012, 11:01 AM
So how does this thing work? If I went in and offered thousands to buy up Romney contracts could I single-handedly move this market?

Yes. Some rich bastard did that for McCain last election.

Taco John
09-19-2012, 12:05 PM
Is this the same Intrade that said Hillary Clinton would be president?

No it didn't.

Taco John
09-19-2012, 12:08 PM
Yes. Some rich bastard did that for McCain last election.

And the market corrected and went back to normal and that guy lost his ass.

I thought you were supposed to be smart about economics, not this dumb.

Intrade is a market, and has to be read like a market.

Taco John
09-19-2012, 12:14 PM
So how does this thing work? If I went in and offered thousands to buy up Romney contracts could I single-handedly move this market?

For a brief moment, yes. But while you moved the market up, smart people will recognize that they could make money off of you and sell, and move it back down.

InTrade is an indicator that absorbs all the information in the market, and moves up or down in real time based on that information. It should be read as "if the election were held right now, this is who the market believes would win." And in that sense, it's 100% right. It moves as the news moves, and at the end of the election, it will have the winner at 100%.

InTrade is NOT a crystal ball. It's a market indicator. Just like a stock.

Calcountry
09-19-2012, 03:59 PM
And the market corrected and went back to normal and that guy lost his ass.

I thought you were supposed to be smart about economics, not this dumb.

Intrade is a market, and has to be read like a market.LMAO

KC native
09-19-2012, 04:11 PM
And the market corrected and went back to normal and that guy lost his ass.

I thought you were supposed to be smart about economics, not this dumb.

Intrade is a market, and has to be read like a market.

Color me not surprised that you don't get Intrade. Intrade is gambling with the veneer of financial market.

You aren't trading on any intrinsic value. It is an extremely shallow market which makes it easy to manipulate.

Calcountry
09-19-2012, 04:14 PM
Color me not surprised that you don't get Intrade. Intrade is gambling with the veneer of financial market.

You aren't trading on any intrinsic value. It is an extremely shallow market which makes it easy to manipulate.And the derivative markets aren't manipulated?

Mr. Flopnuts
09-19-2012, 04:21 PM
The funny thing is, I can pick up 2 whole shares for Obama at $6.82. OTOH, I can get 40 for Mitt at $3.28. People are selling Romney as fast as they can.

Taco John
09-19-2012, 10:40 PM
Color me not surprised that you don't get Intrade. Intrade is gambling with the veneer of financial market.

You aren't trading on any intrinsic value. It is an extremely shallow market which makes it easy to manipulate.

I get InTrade just fine and have followed it for over half a decade now for politics. Market watchers know when the markets are being manipulated and clean up. It's obvious when it happens for those that follow it.

You don't follow Intrade, so let's not pretend that you know anything about it other than your own confirmation bias.

BucEyedPea
09-19-2012, 10:56 PM
And the derivative markets aren't manipulated?

...and has intrinsic value. LMAO

( Which I believe to be a false concept anyway because value is subjective in a market.)

J Diddy
09-19-2012, 11:04 PM
...and has intrinsic value. LMAO

( Which I believe to be a false concept anyway because value is subjective in a market.)

I think you are confusing the philosophical definition of intrinsic with the financial one.

def, wikipedia finance
In finance, intrinsic value refers to the value of a security which is intrinsic to or contained in the security itself. It is also frequently called fundamental value. It is ordinarily calculated by summing the future income generated by the asset, and discounting it to the present value. Simply put, it is the actual value of a security as opposed to the market or book value.

KC native
09-19-2012, 11:09 PM
I get InTrade just fine and have followed it for over half a decade now for politics. Market watchers know when the markets are being manipulated and clean up. It's obvious when it happens for those that follow it.

You don't follow Intrade, so let's not pretend that you know anything about it other than your own confirmation bias.

No, I don't bother with prediction markets. They are gambling.

What is a prediction market?

Intrade is a prediction market. What is a prediction market? It's a market that allows you to make predictions on the outcome of hundreds of real-world events. Stock exchanges find the price of stocks, and futures markets find the price of commodities. Prediction markets find the probability of something happening - a predefined, uncertain future event.

Will the financial markets be up today? Will a certain candidate win the next election? Who will win the Academy Awards? If you have an opinion on what will happen then you can make a prediction on Intrade. Predict correctly and you can win real money profits.

They're not liquid.

Who am I buying from? Who am I selling to?

Intrade is an exchange - like the New York or London stock exchanges for example. When you buy shares you are buying them from another member of Intrade. And when you sell shares, another member of the exchange is buying them from you. You do not buy shares from Intrade, and Intrade does not buy shares from you. You are always trading shares with other members of the exchange - other people who are making predictions, just like you.

It is important to remember that Intrade is a market. This means you may not always be able to get what you want. If you are looking to buy some shares, but nobody is selling, then you can't buy the shares that you want.

Both of those come straight from their website. There are no real market makers on Intrade. Like I said before prediction markets are gambling wrapped in a financial market veneer.

ALSO, ROFL @ people cleaning up. You max profit potential is $9.99 a share. If you were to try making big orders then you're going to push the market because of the limited liquidity (which is what happened in the last presidential election).

But, please tell me again how I don't know about Intrade. I think it's cute.

KC native
09-19-2012, 11:11 PM
I think you are confusing the philosophical definition of intrinsic with the financial one.

def, wikipedia finance
In finance, intrinsic value refers to the value of a security which is intrinsic to or contained in the security itself. It is also frequently called fundamental value. It is ordinarily calculated by summing the future income generated by the asset, and discounting it to the present value. Simply put, it is the actual value of a security as opposed to the market or book value.

Wasting your time. That crazy cunt wouldn't know her asshole from a hole in the ground. She gets even worse when it comes to economics.

Be prepared for a made up definition as a response.

BucEyedPea
09-19-2012, 11:12 PM
I think you are confusing the philosophical definition of intrinsic with the financial one.


def, wikipedia finance
In finance, intrinsic value refers to the value of a security which is intrinsic to or contained in the security itself. It is also frequently called fundamental value. It is ordinarily calculated by summing the future income generated by the asset, and discounting it to the present value. Simply put, it is the actual value of a security as opposed to the market or book value.

Nope. There's no such thing—even in finance. Value can change because markets can change.It is subjective.
I wasn't discussing philosophy either. I adhere to Austrian Economics.

KC native
09-19-2012, 11:17 PM
Nope. There's no such thing—even in finance. Value can change because markets can change.It is subjective.
I wasn't discussing philosophy either. I adhere to Austrian Economics.

And there it is.

Color me psychic. ROFL

J Diddy
09-19-2012, 11:20 PM
Nope. There's no such thing—even in finance. Value can change because markets can change.It is subjective.
I wasn't discussing philosophy either.

To be honest, I researched a bit and you were right and I apologize.

J Diddy
09-19-2012, 11:21 PM
And there it is.

Color me psychic. ROFL

She was right in intrinsic value vs subjective in the market front. However I replied before she added the Austrian thing, so I can't speak to it.

BucEyedPea
09-19-2012, 11:21 PM
To be honest, I researched a bit and you were right and I apologize.

Well, some people do actually believe that. Some mainstream economists even. But it's a central concept in Austrian Economics that it's a bogus idea. All value is subjective. We each do our own valuing. If no one wants an object it loses its value.

KC native
09-19-2012, 11:33 PM
She was right in intrinsic value vs subjective in the market front. However I replied before she added the Austrian thing, so I can't speak to it.

No, she's not. If you're doing discounted cash flow analysis (typical Grahm and Dodd/Buffet style) then intrinsic value isn't subjective.

In finance, intrinsic value refers to the value of a security which is intrinsic to or contained in the security itself. It is also frequently called fundamental value. It is ordinarily calculated by summing the future income generated by the asset, and discounting it to the present value. Simply put, it is the actual value of a security as opposed to the market or book value.

Yes, it's a wiki definition but it's accurate. This is the definition of value investing.

Again, this is dependent on the type of investing your doing and the types of instruments you're trading. If you're trading derivatives then intrinsic value of an option is the difference between the strike price and the price of the asset. Note that that won't be the market price, there are a lot of other factors that go into option pricing (volatility, interest rates) but this is another case where intrinsic value isn't subjective.

J Diddy
09-19-2012, 11:39 PM
No, she's not. If you're doing discounted cash flow analysis (typical Grahm and Dodd/Buffet style) then intrinsic value isn't subjective.



Yes, it's a wiki definition but it's accurate. This is the definition of value investing.

Again, this is dependent on the type of investing your doing and the types of instruments you're trading. If you're trading derivatives then intrinsic value of an option is the difference between the strike price and the price of the asset. Note that that won't be the market price, there are a lot of other factors that go into option pricing (volatility, interest rates) but this is another case where intrinsic value isn't subjective.

There are two competing theories and I would have to agree with the subjective one myself. But that's why they're theories. I can buy that something's value can move up or down based on market demand. Take xbox for example. They sold like hell at a high price when they were initially introduced, but once market value declined, they lowered the price and began selling like hell again. I just can't wrap my head around the fact that something has a fixed worth that will never change regardless of the market.

I'd like to add that I don't know a damned thing about this, so I probably should bow out now.

KC native
09-19-2012, 11:47 PM
There are two competing theories and I would have to agree with the subjective one myself. But that's why they're theories. I can buy that something's value can move up or down based on market demand. Take xbox for example. They sold like hell at a high price when they were initially introduced, but once market value declined, they lowered the price and began selling like hell again. I just can't wrap my head around the fact that something has a fixed worth that will never change regardless of the market.

I'd like to add that I don't know a damned thing about this, so I probably should bow out now.

You're misunderstanding. A short and relatively simple example,

Let's say you're analyzing a steel maker. This business generates a fairly steady revenue. You would use a discounted cash flow analysis to figure out what the intrinsic value of the company is (the minimum worth of the company).

After you determine the intrinsic value of the company you would then see what it is trading at. If the market price is different than the intrinsic value that you have determined then there is either an opportunity to invest or not (whether the market price is lower or higher than the intrinsic value).

In case that was too confusing,

Definition of 'Value Investing'
The strategy of selecting stocks that trade for less than their intrinsic values. Value investors actively seek stocks of companies that they believe the market has undervalued. They believe the market overreacts to good and bad news, resulting in stock price movements that do not correspond with the company's long-term fundamentals. The result is an opportunity for value investors to profit by buying when the price is deflated.

Typically, value investors select stocks with lower-than-average price-to-book or price-to-earnings ratios and/or high dividend yields.

Investopedia explains 'Value Investing'
The big problem for value investing is estimating intrinsic value. Remember, there is no "correct" intrinsic value. Two investors can be given the exact same information and place a different value on a company. For this reason, another central concept to value investing is that of "margin of safety". This just means that you buy at a big enough discount to allow some room for error in your estimation of value.

Also keep in mind that the very definition of value investing is subjective. Some value investors only look at present assets/earnings and don't place any value on future growth. Other value investors base strategies completely around the estimation of future growth and cash flows. Despite the different methodologies, it all comes back to trying to buy something for less than it is worth.

Taco John
09-20-2012, 12:24 AM
But, please tell me again how I don't know about Intrade. I think it's cute.

You're a legend in your own mind.

You don't know shit about Intrade except what you copy and pasted tonight. You've not followed it. You've not studied it. You've only opened your hole and pretended. Anyone can see through you like a window.

No shit it's gambling - just like any market is a gamble. It blows my mind that you think you're saying something interesting or novel. It's a fucking prediction market, not a crystal ball. It moves when the subject moves. But at the end of the day, it will have the right winner at 100%.

KC native
09-20-2012, 12:47 AM
You're a legend in your own mind.

You don't know shit about Intrade except what you copy and pasted tonight. You've not followed it. You've not studied it. You've only opened your hole and pretended. Anyone can see through you like a window.

No shit it's gambling - just like any market is a gamble. It blows my mind that you think you're saying something interesting or novel. It's a fucking prediction market, not a crystal ball. It moves when the subject moves. But at the end of the day, it will have the right winner at 100%.

Really dipshit? I've been reading about prediction markets before the last presidential election. It's funny how I know nothing about Intrade but knew from memory about the asshole who pushed around the McCain president shares.

Feel free to keep talking out your ass though. We knew that's all you and BEP are good for.

Every market is NOT a gamble. I know you're ignorant about the scale of things and how reality functions, but Intrade is no better than going to Vegas.

There are no insights to be gleamed from Intrade.

Taco John
09-20-2012, 08:18 PM
There are no insights to be gleamed from Intrade.

Certainly not for people who are blind.

Comrade Crapski
10-23-2012, 09:06 AM
Eat a bag o' dicks, moonbats!

http://www.businessinsider.com/barack-obama-intrade-57-2012-10#comment-5086ad6aecad04546c000011

:clap:

ChiTown
10-23-2012, 09:19 AM
rut roh!

whoman69
10-23-2012, 02:06 PM
Eat a bag o' dicks, moonbats!

http://www.businessinsider.com/barack-obama-intrade-57-2012-10#comment-5086ad6aecad04546c000011

:clap:
You really want to judge the closeness of the election based on a betting site? Betting is based on perceptions, not in any form of reality.

blaise
10-23-2012, 02:09 PM
You really want to judge the closeness of the election based on a betting site? Betting is based on perceptions, not in any form of reality.

Well he didn't start the thread. That's a response to the thread.

RINGLEADER
10-23-2012, 03:04 PM
Obama down to 57%...wonder if Nate Silver's analysis is going to follow suit since he was boasting last week that Intrade supported his conclusions...

bsp4444
10-23-2012, 03:37 PM
Eat a bag o' dicks, moonbats!

http://www.businessinsider.com/barack-obama-intrade-57-2012-10#comment-5086ad6aecad04546c000011

:clap:

I love how you're so gracious ...you f**k'n p**ck

Taco John
10-23-2012, 04:10 PM
Obama down to 57%...wonder if Nate Silver's analysis is going to follow suit since he was boasting last week that Intrade supported his conclusions...

Nate Silver doesn't understand InTrade if he boasted that it supported his conclusions. That's not how InTrade works.

SNR
10-23-2012, 04:14 PM
This thing is spiraling out of control so fast Romney's advisors cannot possibly hatch a damage control strategy. Mother Jones will drip drip drip this out toward the debate and expectations will be incredibly high. The entire country won't be tuning in to make a decision, they will be tuning in to see Mitt Romney make a fool of himself. There is simply a lack of understanding of the country on the part of Romney and this campaign.

One thing to watch, the state of Georgia! It's closer than anybody believed possible and if the establishment gives up and doesn't vote this one may make national headlines. Ohio and Virginia are definitely goners now. Florida is next and the flood waters will flow.

Link? If all you got is Intrade data, then you're no better than pete and the other head-in-sand righties

RedNeckRaider
10-23-2012, 04:24 PM
Really dipshit? I've been reading about prediction markets before the last presidential election. It's funny how I know nothing about Intrade but knew from memory about the asshole who pushed around the McCain president shares.

Feel free to keep talking out your ass though. We knew that's all you and BEP are good for.

Every market is NOT a gamble. I know you're ignorant about the scale of things and how reality functions, but Intrade is no better than going to Vegas.

There are no insights to be gleamed from Intrade.

LMAO One thing never changes, no matter if the poster leans right, left or in the middle they quickly figure out you are full of shit~

mnchiefsguy
10-23-2012, 09:40 PM
RCP list the intrade odds as 54.0 for Obama, and Romney is up to 45.7....and those numbers are after the last debate.....

Mr. Kotter
10-23-2012, 09:42 PM
RCP list the intrade odds as 54.0 for Obama, and Romney is up to 45.7....and those numbers are after the last debate.....

Which will mean a loss two weeks from now...heh. :)

RINGLEADER
10-23-2012, 09:45 PM
Part of the reason for Obama's slide is what Trump found in their divorce papers.

Get ready for a big barrel of mess tomorrow...

Taco John
10-23-2012, 09:46 PM
I'm starting to think Romney is going to win this.

LiveSteam
10-23-2012, 09:47 PM
Part of the reason for Obama's slide is what Trump found in their divorce papers.

Get ready for a big barrel of mess tomorrow...

Whose divorce papers? Or are you joking?
Was Obama playing with cigars in the White House? The dems really need to think about putting in a smoking ban in the WH

petegz28
10-23-2012, 09:48 PM
Whose divorce papers? Or are you joking?

Supposedly Trump has evidence that at one time "in their two decades of marriage" the Obama's were going to divorce. Big whoop.

LiveSteam
10-23-2012, 09:49 PM
Supposedly Trump has evidence that at one time the Obama's were going to divorce. Big whoop.

JFC. Obama is going to win.

Pawnmower
10-23-2012, 09:52 PM
http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=743474

Down to 54%

Comrade Crapski
10-23-2012, 09:56 PM
Obama down to 57%...wonder if Nate Silver's analysis is going to follow suit since he was boasting last week that Intrade supported his conclusions...

:doh!:

ROYC75
10-23-2012, 10:00 PM
Supposedly Trump has evidence that at one time "in their two decades of marriage" the Obama's were going to divorce. Big whoop.

Blah, he's a loud mouth!

Libya is going to drop Obama to his knees!

RINGLEADER
10-23-2012, 10:35 PM
The divorce papers evidently list Barack's physical and emotional abuse.

Or maybe they don't.

This really is devolving into an election worthy of the Kardashians.

Comrade Crapski
10-23-2012, 10:41 PM
The divorce papers evidently list Barack's physical and emotional abuse.

I figured it would be the other way around.

ROYC75
10-23-2012, 10:51 PM
I figured it would be the other way around.

OK, that made me laugh!:clap:

KC native
10-23-2012, 11:01 PM
LMAO One thing never changes, no matter if the poster leans right, left or in the middle they quickly figure out you are full of shit~

This is cute. Not only are you a hardcore grandpa but your illiterate raider fan ass thinks he knows something about Intrade.

RedNeckRaider
10-24-2012, 05:42 AM
This is cute. Not only are you a hardcore grandpa but your illiterate raider fan ass thinks he knows something about Intrade.

I never claimed to have knowledge about Intrade. What is cute is the fact everyone sees through you. No matter the subject you step up proclaiming your expertise. You are a fake tough guy and a wannabe intellectual. You are a joke everyone gets but you~

LOCOChief
10-24-2012, 09:21 AM
I never claimed to have knowledge about Intrade. What is cute is the fact everyone sees through you. No matter the subject you step up proclaiming your expertise. You are a fake tough guy and a wannabe intellectual. You are a joke everyone gets but you~


kcnative a tough guy? LMAO I've said this before but pretty sure native is not a guy at all and second from what I've read from her on this site leads me to believe she has been mentally and physically abused throughout her life. I don't find this funny, I don't.

scorpio
10-24-2012, 09:40 AM
oops.

http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2012/10/intrade-manipulation-fail.html

As economist Justin Wolfers pointed out on Twitter, the huge swing toward Romney appears to have been driven by a single trader who spent about $17,800 buying up Romney shares and pushing the Republican candidate’s chances on Intrade up to 48 percent. But the surge only lasted a few minutes before other traders whittled the price back down to what they saw as a more accurate valuation. Romney’s odds of winning are currently back at around 41 percent.

KC native
10-24-2012, 09:42 AM
I never claimed to have knowledge about Intrade. What is cute is the fact everyone sees through you. No matter the subject you step up proclaiming your expertise. You are a fake tough guy and a wannabe intellectual. You are a joke everyone gets but you~

Please point out where I've ever referred to myself as an expert.

The rwnj's out here (including you) are blowhard pussies that don't know their asshole from a hole in the ground.

KC native
10-24-2012, 09:43 AM
kcnative a tough guy? LMAO I've said this before but pretty sure native is not a guy at all and second from what I've read from her on this site leads me to believe she has been mentally and physically abused throughout her life. I don't find this funny, I don't.

English motherfucker. Learn how to write it.

patteeu
10-24-2012, 09:45 AM
oops.

http://marginalrevolution.com/marginalrevolution/2012/10/intrade-manipulation-fail.html

What do you mean oops? If Romney wins, that guy cleans up. I doubt that his goal was to change the current "prediction".

loochy
10-24-2012, 09:49 AM
Supposedly Trump has evidence that at one time "in their two decades of marriage" the Obama's were going to divorce. Big whoop.

You can't be serious...

:facepalm:

ROYC75
10-24-2012, 09:57 AM
You can't be serious...

:facepalm:

It would not surprise me.

RedNeckRaider
10-24-2012, 09:57 AM
Please point out where I've ever referred to myself as an expert.

The rwnj's out here (including you) are blowhard pussies that don't know their asshole from a hole in the ground.

LMAO Your are a total buffoon. You are among the people who simply cannot be taken seriously on any subject~

Radar Chief
10-24-2012, 10:14 AM
The rwnj's out here (including you) are blowhard pussies that don't know their asshole from a hole in the ground.

Says the keyboard tough guy from the safety of his mom’s basement.

KC native
10-24-2012, 10:15 AM
LMAO Your are a total buffoon. You are among the people who simply cannot be taken seriously on any subject~

And you're a mouth breathing retard. Feel free to point out where I've been wrong.

KC native
10-24-2012, 10:18 AM
Says the keyboard tough guy from the safety of his mom’s basement.

JFC you guys' insults are getting lamer and lamer by the day. I live in Texas and have been out of my family's house since 18 which is in KC (hence the KC native screen name).

RINGLEADER
10-24-2012, 10:19 AM
The jerk store called...

Radar Chief
10-24-2012, 10:19 AM
JFC you guys' insults are getting lamer and lamer by the day. I live in Texas and have been out of my family's house since 18 which is in KC (hence the KC native screen name).

:LOL: “Lamer”? While trashing someone else’s response. :loser: ROFL

Calcountry
10-24-2012, 11:22 AM
I'm starting to think Romney is going to win this.Yeah, it looks as if the "freight train" may be losing steam?

FD
10-24-2012, 12:39 PM
What do you mean oops? If Romney wins, that guy cleans up. I doubt that his goal was to change the current "prediction".

One 'oops' is that by buying in this type of surge, he overpaid by $1,250 for the same shares he could have gotten at the prior market price. It looks as if he was trying to influence the market and did the equivalent of dropping $1,250 in the trash. Possibly it was just a very stupid trader, of course.