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Direckshun
09-22-2012, 05:14 PM
Enough so, that the current governor of New York is considering nixing his plans to run in 2016.

http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/22/nyregion/cuomos-presidential-dreams-and-a-clinton-in-the-way.html?_r=0

For Ambitious Governor, a Clinton Stands in the Way
By RAYMOND HERNANDEZ
Published: September 21, 2012

Since taking office last year, Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo has done many things well, positioning himself for a possible presidential run.

He has challenged — and outmaneuvered — Albany’s wily Legislature. He has kept his once-notorious temper from spilling over. He has built a prodigious fund-raising operation and earned poll numbers that are the envy of governors nationwide.

But now Mr. Cuomo, a man who likes to determine his own destiny, faces a variable beyond his control: Hillary Rodham Clinton.

Creating frustration for his inner circle, as Mr. Cuomo considers a 2016 campaign for the White House, the eyes of his party are fixed on Mrs. Clinton, whose already sky-high stature among Democratic activists was enhanced by her husband’s crowd-pleasing speech this month at the party’s convention in Charlotte, N.C., and who can count on broad support if she decides to run.

Mrs. Clinton complicates Mr. Cuomo’s ambitions in several ways. Despite the fact that she hails from Illinois, she is now viewed as a New Yorker and commands deep loyalty from the state’s Democratic establishment. And Mr. Cuomo, 54, reveres her husband, former President Bill Clinton; he views Mr. Clinton as a mentor who helped him begin a career in politics, according to Cuomo friends and associates.

The focus on Mrs. Clinton among Mr. Cuomo’s advisers was apparent during the Democratic convention. At one point, a key adviser to the governor approached the Rev. Al Sharpton to ask him if he would support Mrs. Clinton were she to run in 2016, according to a prominent New York Democrat with direct knowledge of the conversation.

“They are totally trying to figure out what she would do,” said the Democrat, who like others interviewed for this article spoke on the condition of anonymity to avoid alienating Mr. Cuomo.

Another Democrat close to Mr. Cuomo said the situation was making the Cuomo camp cranky, in part because the governor, a skilled strategic thinker, did not like to be captive to others’ ambitions.

And a top fund-raiser for Mr. Cuomo put it this way: “He’s got a former first lady and former New York senator in his sandbox, and that’s a mess for him. He’s got to wait and see what Hillary will do.”

Mrs. Clinton, 64, served as a senator for eight years before resigning to become President Obama’s secretary of state.

Neither she nor Mr. Cuomo has signaled any plans for the 2016 election, and the governor says he is focused on his current job. (Mrs. Clinton is not expected to stay in her cabinet post if Mr. Obama wins a second term.) But the potential collision between them is gripping the political world in New York.

“In terms of the psychodrama of politics, it does not get any better than this,” the Democrat close to Mr. Cuomo said.

While Mr. Cuomo has deep affection for Mr. Clinton and calls him for advice, his relationship with Mrs. Clinton is less personal.

What is most vexing to those who want to see Mr. Cuomo run is that Mrs. Clinton, given her popularity in the party, can take her time deciding whether to make another bid for the presidency, essentially freezing the rest of the Democratic field.

Mr. Cuomo, in private conversations, has often been frank about his own prospective presidential candidacy. “First, I’ve got to figure out what Hillary is doing,” he says, according to an adviser.

A Cuomo spokesman denied that Mr. Cuomo had said any such thing and insisted that the governor was not positioning himself for a presidential run.

In the weeks leading up to the convention, Mr. Cuomo, who served as the nation’s housing secretary under President Clinton, turned down offers from old associates of his father, former Gov. Mario M. Cuomo, and former colleagues from the federal housing department to talk quietly about his presidential prospects, as other prominent Democrats, like Gov. Martin O’Malley of Maryland, began planting the seeds for possible candidacies, according to a close Cuomo adviser.

Among those yearning for a Cuomo presidential campaign in 2016, a divide has emerged: some suggest that if Mrs. Clinton ran, the governor’s loyalty to Mr. Clinton would prevent him from joining the field.

But others reject the notion that Mrs. Clinton poses a serious obstacle to Mr. Cuomo, saying she is enjoying a political honeymoon right now but still has many of the weaknesses that plagued her in the past, including a polarizing image.

By contrast, they say, Mr. Cuomo is a fresh face whom Democratic officials, donors and activists will naturally want to court — provided that he wins re-election in 2014, when Mrs. Clinton will most likely be out of a job in politics.

cosmo20002
09-22-2012, 05:16 PM
Everyone knows Hillary is going to challenge Obama in 2012--there's still time!

alnorth
09-22-2012, 05:17 PM
I would have said "no way" a few years ago, but by 2016, the demographic shift might be enough to make Cuomo electable.

suzzer99
09-22-2012, 08:13 PM
Can Bill Clinton legally run again?

Mr. Laz
09-22-2012, 09:12 PM
you know they made a deal

Clintons support Obama now
Obama supports Hillary later

Mr. Laz
09-22-2012, 09:12 PM
Can Bill Clinton legally run again?
if he could, he would win ........... again.

BigRedChief
09-22-2012, 09:21 PM
Can Bill Clinton legally run again?22nd amendment says no.

But it doesnt say anything about a former two term president being the VP.

J Diddy
09-22-2012, 09:31 PM
22nd amendment says no.

But it doesnt say anything about a former two term president being the VP.

12th amendment bars that

But no person constitutionally ineligible to the office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice-President of the United States.

BigRedChief
09-22-2012, 09:35 PM
12th amendment bars that

But no person constitutionally ineligible to the office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice-President of the United States.The whole thing was a Republican idea so the dems never get another Roosevelt in power.

I think it should be amended to two consecutive terms. At the end of another 4 years the previous guy is better, why shouldnt the people get to vote him or her back in?

J Diddy
09-22-2012, 09:40 PM
The whole thing was a Republican idea so the dems never get another Roosevelt in power.

I think it should be amended to two consecutive terms. At the end of another 4 years the previous guy is better, why shouldnt the people get to vote him or her back in?

I think right now that's a very dangerous idea.

pr_capone
09-22-2012, 10:38 PM
3rd term stuff aside, can a President whom has been impeached run again?

cosmo20002
09-22-2012, 10:43 PM
3rd term stuff aside, can a President whom has been impeached run again?

Of course.

J Diddy
09-22-2012, 10:45 PM
3rd term stuff aside, can a President whom has been impeached run again?

Good question. It appears if they are removed from office then they are no longer qualified to hold office.
http://www.ehow.com/info_8490320_happens-after-impeachment-conviction.html

cosmo20002
09-22-2012, 10:47 PM
Good question. It appears if they are removed from office then they are no longer qualified to hold office.
http://www.ehow.com/info_8490320_happens-after-impeachment-conviction.html

Impeached is not the same as removed from office.

J Diddy
09-22-2012, 11:04 PM
Impeached is not the same as removed from office.

I am aware of that. That's why I said if he was removed from office then no.

stevieray
09-23-2012, 12:59 AM
ahh...billary...a self proclaimed progressive ...who did her thesis on on alinsky....shocking

go bowe
09-23-2012, 10:21 PM
ahh...billary...a self proclaimed progressive ...who did her thesis on on alinsky....shocking

what thesis?

iirc, she didn't get a masters or doctoral degree so she wouldn't have written a thesis...

blaise
09-24-2012, 08:29 AM
what thesis?

iirc, she didn't get a masters or doctoral degree so she wouldn't have written a thesis...

Can't you write a type of thesis as an undergrad? I know my wife did some sort of lengthy paper that she had to present to a panel of professors when she was still a senior.
I started reading it once but it was like a very detailed and dry book.

patteeu
09-24-2012, 08:41 AM
what thesis?

iirc, she didn't get a masters or doctoral degree so she wouldn't have written a thesis...

It was a senior thesis at her all girl undergrad school (Wellsley?)

Edit: Yep, Wellesley College. The thesis title was "There Is Only the Fight . . . ": An Analysis of the Alinsky Model.

Saul Good
09-24-2012, 10:37 AM
She will be pushing 70 by then....too old.

blaise
09-24-2012, 10:49 AM
Let her run. She'll lose.

dirk digler
09-24-2012, 10:53 AM
She will be pushing 70 by then....too old.

She will still be hot though

Deberg_1990
09-24-2012, 10:58 AM
Can Bill Clinton legally run again?

heh, yea, this is basically just a "backdoor" way for Bill to get in power again.

He would have ran 10 times if the Constitution didnt prevent it.

J Diddy
09-24-2012, 11:10 AM
heh, yea, this is basically just a "backdoor" way for Bill to get in power again.

He would have ran 10 times if the Constitution didnt prevent it.

and most likely won all 10

patteeu
09-24-2012, 11:19 AM
and most likely won all 10

Al Gore wouldn't even let Bill campaign for him because he didn't want the taint to make his campaign even worse than it already was.

J Diddy
09-24-2012, 11:26 AM
Al Gore wouldn't even let Bill campaign for him because he didn't want the taint to make his campaign even worse than it already was.

That worked out wonders for him too didn't it. I'm not quite sure what your point is because Clinton's approval rating when he left office was 60%. He got spooked about the family values and bringing credibility back to the WH.

patteeu
09-24-2012, 11:30 AM
That worked out wonders for him too didn't it. I'm not quite sure what your point is because Clinton's approval rating when he left office was 60%. He got spooked about the family values and bringing credibility back to the WH.

The fact that Gore lost is an even greater indictment against Clinton. Clinton, a guy who never earned 50% of the vote, was so toxic electorally that his own VP told him to stay away, even in a close election.

J Diddy
09-24-2012, 11:42 AM
The fact that Gore lost is an even greater indictment against Clinton. Clinton, a guy who never earned 50% of the vote, was so toxic electorally that his own VP told him to stay away, even in a close election.

I disagree with that. Gore tried to get too smart.

Garcia Bronco
09-24-2012, 01:27 PM
Won't vote for a Clinton and Cuomo would have to really impress because I am not interested in voting for career politicans and especially not second generation ones..

Iowanian
09-24-2012, 02:02 PM
Bullshit.

If it is ever amended again it should read "1 term being 6 years in length" and that should be for president and congress/senate.

No life long benefits after either, require the rule of 88, same as every other govt employee and same health and benefit plan.


The whole thing was a Republican idea so the dems never get another Roosevelt in power.

I think it should be amended to two consecutive terms. At the end of another 4 years the previous guy is better, why shouldnt the people get to vote him or her back in?

bsp4444
09-24-2012, 03:11 PM
It was a senior thesis at her all girl undergrad school (Wellsley?)

Edit: Yep, Wellesley College. The thesis title was "There Is Only the Fight . . . ": An Analysis of the MONICAlinsky Model.

Is what it should have been.

Thig Lyfe
09-24-2012, 03:14 PM
She might breeze through the primaries but I doubt she'll manage to beat Billy Bush in the general election.

Amnorix
09-24-2012, 03:43 PM
The fact that Gore lost is an even greater indictment against Clinton. Clinton, a guy who never earned 50% of the vote, was so toxic electorally that his own VP told him to stay away, even in a close election.


ROFL Sometimes your takes on history are nothing short of amazing. There was near-universal condemnation of Gore after the election for screwing up the election 1,000 different ways, including by keeping Clinton away.


So this guy (see below) was "toxic electorally"?!?

http://sas-origin.onstreammedia.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/wb0rutqog0acctlgfgnuva.gif

Amnorix
09-24-2012, 03:45 PM
Since you seem confused, let me show you what "toxic electorally" really looks like:

http://sas-origin.onstreammedia.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/cvfspjk4hesmzts2bc0brg.gif

Direckshun
09-24-2012, 03:48 PM
Good lord.

I know I lived through it and everything but it's stunning to see laid out like that.

Amnorix
09-24-2012, 03:56 PM
Good lord.

I know I lived through it and everything but it's stunning to see laid out like that.


To put it in perspective, Harry Truman, who was grossly unpopular at the end of his Presidency and whose hand-picked successor was wiped out by Ike at the polls, was more popular than GWB. So was LBJ, despite being deeply unpopular in the South (Civil Rights) and among much of his own base (Vietnam). Jimmy freaking Carter, stagflation and Iran-hostages notwithstanding, was more popular (though not by much). Only Richard Nixon, coming off Watergate and resigning in disgrace, plumbed deeper depths than GWB.

Two wars, one ignored and the other unnecessary, and the worst financial crisis in 80 years, made GWB pretty close to universally vilified. Basically the only people he had left were the 20% that would support anyone with an "R" next to their name. The basest of the party base, if you will.

Amnorix
09-24-2012, 03:58 PM
Of course, nobody plumbed the depths more than the most reviled politician of our times. Pat's hero, Dick Cheney.

However, polling numbers for both he and the president gradually declined in their second terms [142][143], with Cheney reaching his lowest point shortly before leaving office at 13 percent.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dick_Cheney

At that number, what you're really saying is that EVERY Democrat and EVERY moderate and every "soft" Republican and HALF of the hard-core Republicans disapprove of you. It's really a stunning, stunning number.

mlyonsd
09-24-2012, 04:07 PM
Since you seem confused, let me show you what "toxic electorally" really looks like:

http://sas-origin.onstreammedia.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/cvfspjk4hesmzts2bc0brg.gif

So what you're saying is after 4 years Obama has a worse approval rating than Bush did at 4 years.

And, don't worry, if we get 8 years of Obama he'll still be below or at least even with Bush after 8.

Direckshun
09-24-2012, 04:11 PM
Obama's numbers look more like Reagan's.

http://sas-origin.onstreammedia.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/rmgzeqkfc02dn1bv3mnkmw.gif

mlyonsd
09-24-2012, 04:16 PM
Obama's numbers look more like Reagan's.

http://sas-origin.onstreammedia.com/origin/gallupinc/GallupSpaces/Production/Cms/POLL/rmgzeqkfc02dn1bv3mnkmw.gif

Obama has an approval rating near 60%?

Direckshun
09-24-2012, 04:19 PM
Obama has an approval rating near 60%?

If he can get unemployment near or under 6 by year eight, he'll probably top 60%, wouldn't you figure?

Chocolate Hog
09-24-2012, 04:19 PM
It was a senior thesis at her all girl undergrad school (Wellsley?)

Edit: Yep, Wellesley College. The thesis title was "There Is Only the Fight . . . ": An Analysis of the Alinsky Model.

That's interesting she used to be a Goldwater Republican

Amnorix
09-24-2012, 04:21 PM
Obama has an approval rating near 60%?


No, but neither did Reagan in '84. :shrug:

mlyonsd
09-24-2012, 04:22 PM
If he can get unemployment near or under 6 by year eight, he'll probably top 60%, wouldn't you figure?
I thought we were talking right now, you know, reality.

mlyonsd
09-24-2012, 04:25 PM
No, but neither did Reagan in '84. :shrug:Not my poll, I was just reacting to it. Looked to me like he hit 60% 4th qt 1984.

Amnorix
09-24-2012, 04:28 PM
Not my poll, I was just reacting to it. Looked to me like he hit 60% 4th qt 1984.


Yep, you're right. I was looking at the beginning of '84, but wasn't thinking how the election was late '84, so near when he hit 60% which was apparently right around election day. No surprise how Mondale got smoked.

Chocolate Hog
09-24-2012, 04:30 PM
Reagan and Obama. Nice comparison both are frauds.

alnorth
09-24-2012, 04:31 PM
So what you're saying is after 4 years Obama has a worse approval rating than Bush did at 4 years.

And, don't worry, if we get 8 years of Obama he'll still be below or at least even with Bush after 8.

Are you kidding?

Did you completely miss 9/11? Obama would have flown to similar heights, and it takes a whole lot of idiocy and mistakes to fully waste that amount of goodwill.

Direckshun
09-24-2012, 04:44 PM
So what you're saying is after 4 years Obama has a worse approval rating than Bush did at 4 years.

And, don't worry, if we get 8 years of Obama he'll still be below or at least even with Bush after 8.

I missed this gem.

Want to put a wager on this?

alnorth
09-24-2012, 04:48 PM
I missed this gem.

Want to put a wager on this?

This wager should not be allowed, it would be too unfair.

In people's minds, fairly or not but in their minds they see Bush as taking the roaring economy of the 90's and crashing it into a ditch. Then throw a couple unpopular wars into the mix and pissing off a chunk of his own base.

Obama started out at the absolute dead bottom economy wise, and it looks like he's going to successfully make the "it takes more than 4 years to fix this" sales pitch. After 8 years, Obama's absolute floor on long-term approval is probably in the mid 40's, where he might be remembered as a middling "meh" type of president.

Direckshun
09-24-2012, 04:51 PM
This wager should not be allowed, it would be too unfair.

In people's minds, fairly or not but in their minds they see Bush as taking the roaring economy of the 90's and crashing it into a ditch. Then throw a couple unpopular wars into the mix and pissing off a chunk of his own base.

Obama started out at the absolute dead bottom economy wise, and it looks like he's going to successfully make the "it takes more than 4 years to fix this" sales pitch. After 8 years, Obama's absolute floor on long-term approval is probably in the mid 40's, where he might be remembered as a middling "meh" type of president.

Yup.

So my question is, was mylonsd just talking trash like a Jets fan or was he of earnest belief that Obama will be in the 20s by the end of his second term.

Direckshun
09-24-2012, 04:53 PM
This wager should not be allowed, it would be too unfair.

In people's minds, fairly or not but in their minds they see Bush as taking the roaring economy of the 90's and crashing it into a ditch. Then throw a couple unpopular wars into the mix and pissing off a chunk of his own base.

Obama started out at the absolute dead bottom economy wise, and it looks like he's going to successfully make the "it takes more than 4 years to fix this" sales pitch. After 8 years, Obama's absolute floor on long-term approval is probably in the mid 40's, where he might be remembered as a middling "meh" type of president.

I believe in the job market settling in here in 2014 once a bunch of people in the economy finalize their switch over to the job openings that do exist. That's about a third of the current unemployment rate.

So drop 8% down a third, somewhere lower than 6%. Add in reduced uncertainty in investment, and it could get even lower. That's the rosiest of scenerios, but that's what I've been reading is plausible.

At that point, if Obama's not in the upper 50s by year 8, I'll eat my hat.

But I want to see exactly how far up his ass mylonsd has his head.

patteeu
09-24-2012, 04:55 PM
Are you kidding?

Did you completely miss 9/11? Obama would have flown to similar heights, and it takes a whole lot of idiocy and mistakes to fully waste that amount of goodwill.

Obama didn't even deal well with a couple of attacks on US Embassies. I can't imagine how bad he'd've bungled the response to 9/11.

Chocolate Hog
09-24-2012, 04:59 PM
Obama didn't even deal well with a couple of attacks on US Embassies. I can't imagine how bad he'd've bungled the response to 9/11.

He probably would have read the reports instead of going on vacation.

Amnorix
09-24-2012, 05:10 PM
Obama didn't even deal well with a couple of attacks on US Embassies. I can't imagine how bad he'd've bungled the response to 9/11.


You think maybe he invades North Korea instead? I mean, pick an Axis of Evil country and just go for it, right?

J Diddy
09-24-2012, 05:47 PM
Obama didn't even deal well with a couple of attacks on US Embassies. I can't imagine how bad he'd've bungled the response to 9/11.

Right, he might fuck up and attack an entire different country than the one responsible.

Oh wait, shit.

patteeu
09-25-2012, 06:00 AM
He probably would have read the reports instead of going on vacation.

You think maybe he invades North Korea instead? I mean, pick an Axis of Evil country and just go for it, right?

Right, he might **** up and attack an entire different country than the one responsible.

Oh wait, shit.

I think billay is the closest here because he at least mentions vacation. Taking a vacation to reflect and hope the problem goes away, doing a couple of fundraisers during the trip, and finishing it off with a big apology speech aimed at outreach is the answer we were looking for.

mlyonsd
09-25-2012, 07:38 AM
Are you kidding?

Did you completely miss 9/11? Obama would have flown to similar heights, and it takes a whole lot of idiocy and mistakes to fully waste that amount of goodwill.

Obama is getting there. It is becoming evident his foreign policy is basically the same as Bush's. Helping to blow up the ME while not understanding the consequences of doing so won't help your approval rating if things turn south like they did in Iraq.

The jury is still out and I'm not saying it will happen but the acts of the last few weeks are troubling and Obama really is left looking clueless.

mlyonsd
09-25-2012, 07:56 AM
I missed this gem.

Want to put a wager on this?
Heh, no, even I'm not that much of a homer. Proving you wrong with your own charts is good enough for me today.

Direckshun
09-25-2012, 07:57 AM
Heh, no, even I'm not that much of a homer.

Ah, so you're just saying stuff because saying stuff is fun.

mlyonsd
09-25-2012, 08:04 AM
Ah, so you're just saying stuff because saying stuff is fun.I'm just emulating you sweetheart.

Direckshun
09-25-2012, 08:06 AM
I'm just emulating you sweetheart.

I'm typically serious about the predictions I put out there.

Just a difference between us, I suppose.

mlyonsd
09-25-2012, 08:23 AM
I'm typically serious about the predictions I put out there.

Just a difference between us, I suppose.
You predicted the unemployment rate will drop to 6% by 2014 and an Obama approval rating of upper 50's (what exactly is that, 56 or 59?) by the end of his 8 year term.

I don't see it happening and if you and Obama are wrong, which history is on my side here, I stated Obama's approval rating will be equal or worse than Bush's.

Not really sure where your seriousness is any more serious than my seriousness.

blaise
09-25-2012, 08:24 AM
You predicted the unemployment rate will drop to 6% by 2014 and an Obama approval rating of upper 50's (what exactly is that, 56 or 59?) by the end of his 8 year term.

I don't see it happening and if you and Obama are wrong, which history is on my side here, I stated Obama's approval rating will be equal or worse than Bush's.

Not really sure where your seriousness is any more serious than my seriousness.

It'll drop to 6% once you factor in excuses.

Direckshun
09-25-2012, 08:40 AM
You predicted the unemployment rate will drop to 6% by 2014 and an Obama approval rating of upper 50's (what exactly is that, 56 or 59?) by the end of his 8 year term.

Partially right.

I've predicted the unemployment should drop pretty hard in 2014 regardless of who's in office. I would say into the 6%, maybe low 6%.

I predicated my Obama approval rating guess on that. So you're right, there, but only partially so.

I don't see it happening and if you and Obama are wrong, which history is on my side here, I stated Obama's approval rating will be equal or worse than Bush's.

Because you're claiming that not only will Obama's approval stall, it will sink like a goddamn rock to the mid 20's.

I simply don't see the reasoning for that, barring some crazy attack on US soil or unemployment skyrocketing back up.

And you don't either.

Not really sure where your seriousness is any more serious than my seriousness.

Because you pussed out when something was actually put on the line to hold you accountable. You admitted yourself that you were just posting like a crazed homer more than you were grounded in reality.

That's the difference between us.

Iowanian
09-25-2012, 08:42 AM
It might as well be beating....she's talking to world leaders at the UN while Obama panders at "the view".

patteeu
09-25-2012, 08:48 AM
It looks like President Hillary will inherit a 5% unemployment rate:

http://libertyslifeline.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/Stimulus-and-Unemployment2.jpg

mlyonsd
09-25-2012, 09:02 AM
Partially right.

I've predicted the unemployment should drop pretty hard in 2014 regardless of who's in office. I would say into the 6%, maybe low 6%.

I predicated my Obama approval rating guess on that. So you're right, there, but only partially so.



Because you're claiming that not only will Obama's approval stall, it will sink like a goddamn rock to the mid 20's.

I simply don't see the reasoning for that, barring some crazy attack on US soil or unemployment skyrocketing back up.

And you don't either.



Because you pussed out when something was actually put on the line to hold you accountable. You admitted yourself that you were just posting like a crazed homer more than you were grounded in reality.

That's the difference between us.Check your chart and what I posted again. Bush ended up somewhere in the 30's.

I see no Obama policy that would expect unemployment to drop to 6%. I see no Obama policy that addresses out of control entitlement spending. I see no Obama policy that seriously attacks the deficit. I see no Obama leadership steering us away from the approaching cliff. All I see are Obama policies that are intended to make people more dependent on the government.

So yeah, I can play your game too. If what I foresee happens he will end up with Bush level approval ratings.

And from what I read into your post, any president will get unemployment down into the 6% range by 2014. I'm glad we can agree now that if Obama is re-elected and that happens it isn't because of anything he did.

I also noticed that you backed down from the prediction of an Obama 60+% approval rating to somewhere in the "upper 50's".

Yeah, you're not a crazed homer or accountable for what you post or anything.

mlyonsd
09-25-2012, 09:07 AM
It looks like President Hillary will inherit a 5% unemployment rate:

http://libertyslifeline.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/Stimulus-and-Unemployment2.jpg
Hell, even Romney will move in day one with a low 5% rate!

Direckshun
09-25-2012, 09:12 AM
I see no Obama policy that would expect unemployment to drop to 6%. I see no Obama policy that addresses out of control entitlement spending. I see no Obama policy that seriously attacks the deficit. I see no Obama leadership steering us away from the approaching cliff. All I see are Obama policies that are intended to make people more dependent on the government.

I believe the unemployment rate will drop to 6%ish regardless of who's in office due to the dynamics of the unemployment rate, and what I believe is keeping it propped up. I believe it is unemployment that is keeping Obama around 50% approval, so much so that once it actually does fall, Obama will score really good approval ratings, I would argue in the high 50s at least.

So yeah, I can play your game too. If what I foresee happens he will end up with Bush level approval ratings.

What do you foresee happening, exactly?

And from what I read into your post, any president will get unemployment down into the 6% range by 2014. I'm glad we can agree now that if Obama is re-elected and that happens it isn't because of anything he did.

Swing and a miss.

I think unemployment will drop hard in 2014 no matter who is President, in part because of accomplishments of Obama's first term.

I also noticed that you backed down from the prediction of an Obama 60+% approval rating to somewhere in the "upper 50's".

Oh I still believe in the low-60s, high-50s, so long as unemployment falls into the mid- to low-6's, which I think it's going to in 2014.

Yeah, you're not a crazed homer or accountable for what you post or anything.

I'm happy to make a bet on that. Interested? We can hash out terms right now.

mlyonsd
09-25-2012, 10:23 AM
I believe the unemployment rate will drop to 6%ish regardless of who's in office due to the dynamics of the unemployment rate, and what I believe is keeping it propped up. I believe it is unemployment that is keeping Obama around 50% approval, so much so that once it actually does fall, Obama will score really good approval ratings, I would argue in the high 50s at least.



What do you foresee happening, exactly?



Swing and a miss.

I think unemployment will drop hard in 2014 no matter who is President, in part because of accomplishments of Obama's first term.



Oh I still believe in the low-60s, high-50s, so long as unemployment falls into the mid- to low-6's, which I think it's going to in 2014.



I'm happy to make a bet on that. Interested? We can hash out terms right now.My prediction is global conditions and the global economy will keep unemployment around 8% thru another 4 years of Obama. Even though that number is totally reflective of the state of our economy since it doesn't figure in the actual unemployed/underemployed.

I'd predict a lower rate if Romney were elected. Uncertainty would be replaced with a bigger desire to invest in jobs.

I don't see the need for a bet since neither of us will agree to terms.

Direckshun
09-25-2012, 10:27 AM
I don't see the need for a bet since neither of us will agree to terms.

I don't see why not. You've made very specific predictions.

How about this: if unemployment is 8%-anything or worse by December 31st 2014, you get my signature for life. If it is 6%-anything or better by December 31st 2014, I get yours for life. If it is 7%-anything, we get each other's signatures for a year.

If that sounds good, we can put some icing in the cake with Obama's approval numbers.

mlyonsd
09-25-2012, 10:30 AM
I don't see why not. You've made very specific predictions.

How about this: if unemployment is 8%-anything or worse by December 31st 2014, you get my signature for life. If it is 6%-anything or better by December 31st 2014, I get yours for life. If it is 7%-anything, we get each other's signatures for a year.

If that sounds good, we can put some icing in the cake with Obama's approval numbers.
You realize since I'm a nice guy I'll tell you right now with those conditions I can already claim victory.

J Diddy
09-25-2012, 10:33 AM
You realize since I'm a nice guy I'll tell you right now with those conditions I can already claim victory.

What's the over under on you guys forgetting about it by then?

Direckshun
09-25-2012, 10:36 AM
You realize since I'm a nice guy I'll tell you right now with those conditions I can already claim victory.

So you're in? You want to do this thing?

Direckshun
09-25-2012, 10:37 AM
What's the over under on you guys forgetting about it by then?

I haven't forgot about the deal I made with sportsshrink however long ago.

Soon as Obama wins in November, he will never post in DC again.

mlyonsd
09-25-2012, 10:48 AM
So you're in? You want to do this thing?

Excuse my naivete, what's a signature for life bet?

J Diddy
09-25-2012, 10:50 AM
I haven't forgot about the deal I made with sportsshrink however long ago.

Soon as Obama wins in November, he will never post in DC again.

That's great. He'll be sending his cut and paste rwnj articles to every inbox of every person who frequents DC

mlyonsd
09-25-2012, 10:51 AM
What's the over under on you guys forgetting about it by then?
Oh there's zero chance. Direckshun and I go way back.

alnorth
09-25-2012, 11:10 AM
Excuse my naivete, what's a signature for life bet?

If you make this bet and you lose, he owns the signature for your account, forever. He could change it to "I am almost always wrong" or "Direckshun is smarter than I am" or a picture celebrating Obama's win, or whatever else he wants, and it would be displayed under every post you make for people who haven't turned signatures off.

A lifetime signature bet is something I'd be reluctant to do even if I was fairly sure I would win the bet.

patteeu
09-25-2012, 11:10 AM
I don't see why not. You've made very specific predictions.

How about this: if unemployment is 8%-anything or worse by December 31st 2014, you get my signature for life. If it is 6%-anything or better by December 31st 2014, I get yours for life. If it is 7%-anything, we get each other's signatures for a year.

If that sounds good, we can put some icing in the cake with Obama's approval numbers.

That's a bad bet for mlyonsd unless Chiefshrink lets you out of the vote he has with you first. What good is the sig of a guy who never posts? Even if you claim you still have a chance to win that Chiefshrink bet, there's still a greater than zero chance that your sig will be worthless.

alnorth
09-25-2012, 11:16 AM
That's a bad bet for mlyonsd unless Chiefshrink lets you out of the vote he has with you first. What good is the sig of a guy who never posts? Even if you claim you still have a chance to win that Chiefshrink bet, there's still a greater than zero chance that your sig will be worthless.

Since their bet requires a 2nd Obama term, I don't think there's a conflict. I assume there's no action if Romney wins.

Direckshun
09-25-2012, 11:16 AM
Excuse my naivete, what's a signature for life bet?

If you make this bet and you lose, he owns the signature for your account, forever. He could change it to "I am almost always wrong" or "Direckshun is smarter than I am" or a picture celebrating Obama's win, or whatever else he wants, and it would be displayed under every post you make for people who haven't turned signatures off.

This.

patteeu
09-25-2012, 11:18 AM
Since their bet requires a 2nd Obama term, I don't think there's a conflict. I assume there's no action if Romney wins.

Ah, good point. I stand corrected.

But I agree with you that it's not a bet I'd make even if it was almost a sure thing.

alnorth
09-25-2012, 11:33 AM
But I agree with you that it's not a bet I'd make even if it was almost a sure thing.

I cant believe he wagered a DC Ban on Obama. A lifetime sig bet is just one step below that, but even though one might be reasonably confident in an Obama victory earlier this year, it never got above 60/40 in my mind until the conventions.

mlyonsd
09-25-2012, 12:02 PM
This.

I always wondered about that. I thought it was userid names.

No, I'm not going to do a sig bet.

Keep working on it.

Direckshun
09-25-2012, 12:04 PM
I always wondered about that. I thought it was userid names.

No, I'm not going to do a sig bet.

Keep working on it.

What are you willing to do?

mlyonsd
09-25-2012, 12:20 PM
What are you willing to do?I made a bet with dirk once for a case of beer. You'd have to rewrite the terms so they made sense though.

J Diddy
09-25-2012, 12:29 PM
I made a bet with dirk once for a case of beer. You'd have to rewrite the terms so they made sense though.

You pay up? If so, what'd you do? Ship it to him.

mlyonsd
09-25-2012, 12:36 PM
You pay up? If so, what'd you do? Ship it to him.Of course I would have paid up if I had lost.

J Diddy
09-25-2012, 02:57 PM
Of course I would have paid up if I had lost.

I was more interested in knowing how you would have fulfilled the debt. I wasn't trying to question your integrity (this time)

Direckshun
09-25-2012, 04:14 PM
I made a bet with dirk once for a case of beer. You'd have to rewrite the terms so they made sense though.

That is immensely disappointing.

mlyonsd
09-25-2012, 04:21 PM
That is immensely disappointing.Why? You don't drink?

Direckshun
09-25-2012, 04:31 PM
Why? You don't drink?

Because the whole point to holding you accountable is that you get to display it on CP around all the folks we jointly know.

If the only defeat you have to admit is in private... hardly serves as an incentive to keep your mouth from flying into unreasonable predictions on the board.

But once again, that's the difference between me and you.

mlyonsd
09-25-2012, 04:35 PM
Because the whole point to holding you accountable is that you get to display it on CP around all the folks we jointly know.

If the only defeat you have to admit is in private... hardly serves as an incentive to keep your mouth from flying into unreasonable predictions on the board.

But once again, that's the difference between me and you.I hold you accountable all the time but don't rub your nose in it. To me, that's the evident difference between you and me.

Iowanian
09-25-2012, 04:36 PM
Translated: I don't want to put my money where my mouth is because I can't afford a case of beer if I lose.

patteeu
09-25-2012, 04:56 PM
Because the whole point to holding you accountable is that you get to display it on CP around all the folks we jointly know.

If the only defeat you have to admit is in private... hardly serves as an incentive to keep your mouth from flying into unreasonable predictions on the board.

But once again, that's the difference between me and you.

Can't you just put your list of awesome Internet victories in your own sig?

Direckshun
09-25-2012, 04:57 PM
Can't you just put your list of awesome Internet victories in your own sig?

It's infinitely more rewarding when you gotta wear the shirt I made.