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cdcox
09-26-2012, 09:12 PM
nfl-forecast.com is back for another season.

After Week 3
As of the moment, the Chiefs odds of making the playoffs are 10%.

The distribution of potential wins and draft picks will be shown in my next post.

Unfortunately, this season is shaping up to be a classic case of being Piolied by the Cassel maneuver.

Midway through Week 12

We have an 81% chance of getting the overall #1 pick.

We can afford to win a game, and in all likelihood, still take the number one overall pick. For example, if we win one game and Jacksonville loses out, we will still get the overall #1 pick 99% of the time. If we beat Carolina and they lose out, we still get the #1 pick 75% of the time.

The Chiefs are eliminated from the playoffs.

Midway through week 13

As of now odds of getting the #1 draft pick:

KC 55%
Jax 24%
Oakland 15%
Philly 4%
Field 2%

Midway through week 14

KC 55%
Jax 31%
Oakland 14%
Only 3 with decent odds.

Midway through week 15

KC 70%
Jac 30%
Oakland <<1%

KC guaranteed a top 3 spot

Midway through week 16

KC 92%
Jax 8%

Only way we don't get it is if we beat Denver and Jax loses to TN (barring ties).

cdcox
09-26-2012, 09:17 PM
Win distribution after week 3:

cdcox
09-26-2012, 09:18 PM
Draft odds after week 3:

Mr_Tomahawk
09-26-2012, 09:19 PM
ummmmm....


D) All of the above?

FAX
09-26-2012, 09:21 PM
Hmmm. That second one is a little lopsided for my taste. Looks like it has a pretty nasty mole, too.

FAX

Count Alex's Losses
09-26-2012, 09:25 PM
Our odds of making the playoffs are lower than Cassel's odds of beating playoff teams.

Sounds about right, since he would have to beat multiple playoff teams in order for us to make the playoffs!

Mr_Tomahawk
09-26-2012, 09:26 PM
What are the odds that we draft a QB in the first rnd...?

Can your calculator do that...?

Count Alex's Losses
09-26-2012, 09:31 PM
What are the odds that we draft a QB in the first rnd...?

Can your calculator do that...?

Calculators work on logic, and Pioli's brain is illogical.

FAX
09-26-2012, 09:34 PM
Oh ... I get it now. Each graph is only for KC. I couldn't figure it out at first on account of all the team names on the left.

So, the most probable scenario at this point is 6 "additional" wins or 6 "total" wins?

FAX

cdcox
09-26-2012, 09:36 PM
Oh ... I get it now. Each graph is only for KC. I couldn't figure it out at first on account of all the team names on the left.

So, the most probable scenario at this point is 6 "additional" wins or 6 "total" wins?

FAX

Total wins.

Bump
09-26-2012, 09:37 PM
I'm on the one in fifteeno for Geno wagon

Buck
09-26-2012, 09:38 PM
Can you do San Diego if you have time? Thanks.

mikey23545
09-26-2012, 09:44 PM
Can you do San Diego if you have time? Thanks.

The pockmark factor makes any calculations unreliable.

FAX
09-26-2012, 09:45 PM
Total wins.

Ouch.

FAX

milkman
09-26-2012, 09:45 PM
I struggle with graph reading, so correct me if I'm wrong.

The odds suggest at this point that the Chiefs are most likely to draft number 6 overall?

FAX
09-26-2012, 09:47 PM
I struggle with graph reading, so correct me if I'm wrong.

The odds suggest at this point that the Chiefs are most likely to draft number 6 overall?

I think it's 5. Find the nipple.

FAX

BossChief
09-26-2012, 09:47 PM
Anyone else think the hulk in milkmans sig has a beer instead of a glass of milk? It's in his left hand next to ironmans head.

cdcox
09-26-2012, 09:48 PM
Can you do San Diego if you have time? Thanks.

League-wide playoff predictions are available here:

http://files.nfl-forecast.com/


To run the software (to get additional information):

1) Click here:

http://nfl-forecast.com/

2) Click "Launch pro-football forecast"

3. Open the down load

4. Accept terms

5. Click: Forecast -> Forecast Remainder of the Season

cdcox
09-26-2012, 09:49 PM
I think it's 5. Find the nipple.

FAX

Yep.

mikey23545
09-26-2012, 09:52 PM
It should be possible to graph San Diego wins vs tantrums using the "weeping rivers" confounding factor.

Shaid
09-26-2012, 10:02 PM
I think it's 5. Find the nipple.

FAX

LMAO He has a tough time making his woman happy too.

JASONSAUTO
09-26-2012, 10:09 PM
Draft at five should be a spot to get a qb
Posted via Mobile Device

NJChiefsFan
09-27-2012, 01:18 AM
Anyone else think the hulk in milkmans sig has a beer instead of a glass of milk? It's in his left hand next to ironmans head.

Perhaps its a fruit drink.

Guru
09-27-2012, 01:44 AM
yep, right in line with what I predicted this team would do when the schedule came out. 6-10

FAX
09-27-2012, 01:50 AM
No offense to Mr. cdcox and his amazing predictive system which is, without question, a phenomenal piece of work and a testament to his undisputed, intellectual genius. But you can forget it, fellow Chiefs fans.

For I have sought the wisdom of the All-Seeing Crystal Tittah and have been informed that I need to check the air pressure in my front left tire. But then, the All-Seeing Crystal Tittah stated that there is no freaking way the Chiefs win 6 games this season. Rather, the All-Seeing Crystal Tittah has declared that we'll either win 9 or 4. The All-Seeing Crystal Tittah could not be more specific, I'm not sure why. Maybe I fogged the old girl up again.

FAX

Der Flöprer
09-27-2012, 01:55 AM
1 interesting thing to me is analyzing the advanced analysis for each week through the end of the year, current predictions on a game by game case has us going 11-5.

FAX
09-27-2012, 01:56 AM
1 interesting thing to me is analyzing the advanced analysis for each week through the end of the year, current predictions on a game by game case has us going 11-5.

Uhhhh ... what?

FAX

FAX
09-27-2012, 01:58 AM
Oh ... I get it. You're looking at each week ... got that part ... and it's telling you a straight win or loss for each game?

EDIT: I guess the question has to be ... what are the predictors used for each game. Strength of schedule? Past results?

I believe Mr. cdcox integrates the Vegas lines in his model. At least I think he does.

FAX

Der Flöprer
09-27-2012, 02:00 AM
Oh ... I get it. You're looking at each week ... got that part ... and it's telling you a straight win or loss for each game?

EDIT: I guess the question has to be ... what are the predictors used for each game. Strength of schedule? Past results?

I believe Mr. cdcox integrates the Vegas lines in his model. At least I think he does.

FAX

Percentage to win. We're over 50% for the next 10 of 13 games.

FAX
09-27-2012, 02:05 AM
Percentage to win. We're over 50% for the next 10 of 13 games.

Okay. Not to wear this out, but based on what? What are they basing the prediction on? Is this Mr. cdcox's system you're using?

FAX

Der Flöprer
09-27-2012, 02:08 AM
Okay. Not to wear this out, but based on what? What are they basing the prediction on? Is this Mr. cdcox's system you're using?

FAX

Yeah, I don't know. I opened his program and was looking at the advanced analysis. It showed sliders leaning toward one team every week. The slider was on our side for 10 of the last 13 games as of that moment. I'm sure it gets updated weekly and that will change, but as of then (and probably now) it showed us having the edge if you will to win those games.

FAX
09-27-2012, 02:11 AM
Yeah, I don't know. I opened his program and was looking at the advanced analysis. It showed sliders leaning toward one team every week. The slider was on our side for 10 of the last 13 games as of that moment. I'm sure it gets updated weekly and that will change, but as of then (and probably now) it showed us having the edge if you will to win those games.

Okay. Thanks. I'm with you now.

Yes, it definitely changes each week. All over the place, really. There are tons of variables. Everything except the "Any Given Sunday" factor.

FAX

Der Flöprer
09-27-2012, 02:12 AM
Okay. Thanks. I'm with you now.

Yes, it definitely changes each week. All over the place, really. There are tons of variables. Everything except the "Any Given Sunday" factor.

FAX

Yeah. They should add the Muff Boudain analysis every week. That guy knows his shit!

FAX
09-27-2012, 03:11 AM
Yeah. They should add the Muff Boudain analysis every week. That guy knows his shit!

You know, before he escaped prison (with the help of his daughter and her common-law husband, if you recall) and was lost at sea somewhere off the coast of California, they say that Muff helped write the NFL rulebook. That would certainly give him a great deal of insight and influence with his Vegas friends. Of course, all that was before he decided to leave the priesthood and turn to a life of crime.

FAX

cdcox
09-27-2012, 05:33 AM
Yeah, I don't know. I opened his program and was looking at the advanced analysis. It showed sliders leaning toward one team every week. The slider was on our side for 10 of the last 13 games as of that moment. I'm sure it gets updated weekly and that will change, but as of then (and probably now) it showed us having the edge if you will to win those games.

You're reading it backward. The 0 to 100 scale represents the percent odds of the home team winning. The slider is always closer to the favorite.

I use advancednflstats to determine the game odds and those are updated weekly. Later this week, Brian Burke, author of advancednflstats.com, will publish the game odds in the NY Times blog. Those game odds will be within a couple percentage points of the game odds in the software. Both Brian and I calculate the game odds from his generic team efficiency ratings, but the way we award HFA is slightly different.

BTW, you can move the sliders to do what-if analyses.

Der Flöprer
09-27-2012, 06:56 AM
You're reading it backward. The 0 to 100 scale represents the percent odds of the home team winning. The slider is always closer to the favorite.

I use advancednflstats to determine the game odds and those are updated weekly. Later this week, Brian Burke, author of advancednflstats.com, will publish the game odds in the NY Times blog. Those game odds will be within a couple percentage points of the game odds in the software. Both Brian and I calculate the game odds from his generic team efficiency ratings, but the way we award HFA is slightly different.

BTW, you can move the sliders to do what-if analyses.

Love it. Gonna play around with it some more tonight. Thanks for the tip. I've always admired it from afar. Much like I've always admired Muff Boudain.

htismaqe
09-27-2012, 07:34 AM
I don't know Seedy. I don't see how the draft pick graph suggests we're getting "Pioli'd".

Looks to me like we're going to to pick around 5th, plus or minus 2 picks. If we pick between 3 and 7, we'll have a guaranteed shot at the 2nd-best QB in the draft IMO.

Guru
09-27-2012, 07:35 AM
I don't know Seedy. I don't see how the draft pick graph suggests we're getting "Pioli'd".

Looks to me like we're going to to pick around 5th, plus or minus 2 picks. If we pick between 3 and 7, we'll have a guaranteed shot at the 2nd-best QB in the draft IMO.

nah. Pioli will trade out of the pick or draft a DLineman.

htismaqe
09-27-2012, 07:44 AM
nah. Pioli will trade out of the pick or draft a DLineman.

I don't think he's gonna have a choice. The fanbase is teetering on revolt.

It's a DAILY topic of discussion on both 610 and 810 and they actually are more representative of the "average" fan than we are.

Guru
09-27-2012, 07:46 AM
I don't think he's gonna have a choice. The fanbase is teetering on revolt.

It's a DAILY topic of discussion on both 610 and 810 and they actually are more representative of the "average" fan than we are.

I truly hope so but I'm not holding my breath either.

htismaqe
09-27-2012, 07:55 AM
I truly hope so but I'm not holding my breath either.

I'm not either. I've just never heard the kind of consensus I'm hearing now.

Pasta Giant Meatball
09-27-2012, 08:00 AM
I'm not either. I've just never heard the kind of consensus I'm hearing now.

Your right. It's always been a hot topic here, but it's even spilling over to the non die hards. KC wants a new QB....NOW.

Count Alex's Losses
10-03-2012, 05:46 AM
Updated, I think:

Chiefs have a 52 percent chance of finishing last in the AFC West. 37.5 percent chance of finishing 3rd.

5.7 percent chance of making the playoffs.

Good chance of drafting in the top 7.

http://i.imgur.com/dvY6q.jpg

Good chance of 4-6 wins.

http://i.imgur.com/NBk7c.jpg

Count Alex's Losses
10-04-2012, 12:36 PM
discussion, please

Great Expectations
10-04-2012, 12:50 PM
discussion, please

Sounds reasonable

L.A. Chieffan
10-04-2012, 12:52 PM
5% chance isn't bad. At least it's not zero.

KC_Lee
10-04-2012, 12:53 PM
5% chance isn't bad. At least it's not zero.

:troll:

Der Flöprer
10-04-2012, 12:57 PM
I don't see 5 games on our schedule we can win.

whoman69
10-04-2012, 12:57 PM
5% chance isn't bad. At least it's not zero.

It should be zero, cause this team has no chance.

L.A. Chieffan
10-04-2012, 01:03 PM
Week five and its all over huh? Are you guys French?

Count Alex's Losses
10-04-2012, 01:04 PM
Week five and its all over huh? Are you guys French?

Yes. We're currently storming the Bastille.

Steron
10-04-2012, 01:05 PM
Calculators work on logic, and Pioli's brain is illogical.

You spelled brilliant wrong.

Rain Man
10-04-2012, 01:12 PM
This looks a lot like he's just publishing last year's results again.

L.A. Chieffan
10-04-2012, 01:12 PM
Yes. We're currently storming the Bastille.

More like letting a bunch of krauts roll into town and take your three women

Count Alex's Losses
10-09-2012, 12:53 AM
Out look not good.

http://i.imgur.com/Ao14l.jpg

http://i.imgur.com/qCyOG.jpg


Outlook very good!

http://i.imgur.com/iuzkV.jpg


Nfl-forecast.com gives middle finger to Pioli

http://i.imgur.com/pbBcb.jpg

Rausch
10-09-2012, 12:56 AM
I don't think he's gonna have a choice. The fanbase is teetering on revolt.

It's a DAILY topic of discussion on both 610 and 810 and they actually are more representative of the "average" fan than we are.

He doesn't care. He's right. He knows better. His way will turn things around...

cdcox
10-09-2012, 12:58 AM
Should get slightly more favorable draft choice wise after the new generic win percetanges (power ratings) get added on T or W.

tk13
10-09-2012, 01:01 AM
Tennessee at even 11% is shocking... they've been annihilated almost every week. Without even looking I'd guess they lead the league in point differential. I believe they were the first team ever to give up over 30 points the first 5 weeks of a season.

cdcox
10-09-2012, 01:07 AM
Tennessee at even 11% is shocking... they've been annihilated almost every week. Without even looking I'd guess they lead the league in point differential. I believe they were the first team ever to give up over 30 points the first 5 weeks of a season.

Going into this week their generic win percentage was 48%, which is just less than average. Either their stats will start tanking (which would drop their GWP) or they will win a few games.

cdcox
10-15-2012, 12:01 AM
Unofficially, we're up to 23% chance of getting the overall #1. NO is in front of us, but I think most people think they aren't serious contenders for that position. This is shaping up nicely.

Ebolapox
10-15-2012, 12:12 AM
keep losing, baby.

BossChief
10-15-2012, 12:14 AM
Unofficially, we're up to 23% chance of getting the overall #1. NO is in front of us, but I think most people think they aren't serious contenders for that position. This is shaping up nicely.

NO is the only team in front of us?

cdcox
10-15-2012, 12:26 AM
NO is the only team in front of us?

Yep, from an odds perspective. Jacksonville is at around 15%, and Cleveland is around 10%. Everyone else is below 10%.

bowener
10-15-2012, 01:27 AM
FUCK YEAH!! PBJ

Unsmooth-Moment
10-15-2012, 01:45 AM
We suck so good!

AussieChiefsFan
10-15-2012, 02:59 AM
We suck so good!

For once.

Count Alex's Losses
10-16-2012, 10:24 AM
http://i.imgur.com/QAh1l.jpg

Sofa King
10-16-2012, 10:36 AM
Cleveland, Oakland, Jacksonville need to start winning games. The others I think will manage a couple wins, Carolina, NO (should win a bunch).

ct
10-16-2012, 10:39 AM
this is such a tease. damn how I wish it could happen, even dreaming this organization is trying to MAKE it happen. just don't believe it will. we'll win a few and screw it up.

Buckweath
10-16-2012, 10:55 AM
Best thing that could happen to this franchise what's happening now. You're not winning a SB with anything below a top 10 QB, simple as that. Not that it's the only problem with this franchise but by far the biggest.

cdcox
10-16-2012, 11:41 PM
I just ran the official numbers for this week and we are now the favorites for the #1 overall pick with a 42% chance.

NJChiefsFan
10-16-2012, 11:44 PM
Cleveland, Oakland, Jacksonville need to start winning games. The others I think will manage a couple wins, Carolina, NO (should win a bunch).

Oakland and JAC play this weekend so that's a win for somebody. I would say I hope JAC wins because I think Oakland will be able to win a couple games. Hell, they have us twice. If we are going to have a terrible record it means we are giving a game or two to them so I would say JAC needs to win this game.

Cleveland not only plays us but has shown me enough to think they will steal a few. Underrated defense, QB who has looked good in a few games, and a good RB. JAC is the one I am most worried about. If we lose to OAK coming out of the by I am going to start getting excited.

BossChief
10-16-2012, 11:45 PM
I just ran the official numbers for this week and we are now the favorites for the #1 overall pick with a 42% chance.

You are doing Gods work.

Guru
10-17-2012, 07:11 AM
YOu guys are forgetting one very important fact. The Chiefs don't draft QBs in the first round.

Bwana
10-17-2012, 07:56 AM
YOu guys are forgetting one very important fact. The Chiefs don't draft QBs in the first round.

Heh, yeah I could see Chrome Dome trading off the number one pick for extra picks and picking up a scrub QB in round 3. I wouldn't be all that shocked. The board would go into a meltdown like it has never seen before.

theelusiveeightrop
10-17-2012, 08:06 AM
We might be outsucked by Oakland. Al may be dead, but the Raiders are still capable of extreme levels of stupidity.

Rain Man
10-17-2012, 10:00 AM
Heh, yeah I could see Chrome Dome trading off the number one pick for extra picks and picking up a scrub QB in round 3. I wouldn't be all that shocked. The board would go into a meltdown like it has never seen before.

You're forgetting something. The Chiefs don't draft quarterbacks in Round 3.

Count Alex's Losses
10-29-2012, 01:55 AM
Things are looking up.

http://i.imgur.com/UiYB4.jpg

http://i.imgur.com/0Gu9A.jpg

http://i.imgur.com/heLuO.jpg

NJChiefsFan
10-29-2012, 03:15 AM
We learned from last year. Made some rookie mistakes in trying to suck for a QB. Had a semi-decent QB on the roster to end the season, beat an undefeated team, and threw a Hail Mary. This year, we put Romeo in charge full time, he stopped making the players care, and we brought in Quinn.

AussieChiefsFan
10-29-2012, 04:07 AM
So wer're mathematically out of the playoffs for sure now?

BryanBusby
10-29-2012, 04:39 AM
So wer're mathematically out of the playoffs for sure now?
The AFC is bad and the Chiefs haven't even reached 8 losses yet, so no.

Probably have another month to go before they are mathematically, assuming they continue to go winless.

AussieChiefsFan
10-29-2012, 04:44 AM
The AFC is bad and the Chiefs haven't even reached 8 losses yet, so no.

Probably have another month to go before they are mathematically, assuming they continue to go winless.

yea thats what I thought. Just wondered because the graph says 0%

Count Alex's Losses
11-04-2012, 11:43 PM
awww yeah

https://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash4/197094_474370339252549_1502275197_n.jpg

http://i.imgur.com/5852l.jpg

Pawnmower
11-04-2012, 11:46 PM
wow it will be pretty cool if we do get a 1st overall pick

it will be our super bowl


I hope the project freakishly amazing yet not quite ready for NFL D-Lineman we end up with turns out to be a beast in 2017

PornChief
11-04-2012, 11:47 PM
I prefer stats in pie chart form

cdcox
11-04-2012, 11:48 PM
I prefer pie in bar chart form.

BossChief
11-05-2012, 12:14 AM
That first one is like the size of my boner the closer we get to the top pick.

I just hope Clark fires Pioli because if he doesn't I would put it at 50-50 of Pioli taking a qb at that spot of trading down and taking another position and taking a qb in the second or third round.

htismaqe
11-05-2012, 07:22 AM
wow it will be pretty cool if we do get a 1st overall pick

it will be our super bowl


I hope the project freakishly amazing yet not quite ready for NFL D-Lineman we end up with turns out to be a beast in 2017

Don't do that!

theelusiveeightrop
11-05-2012, 07:27 AM
Omaha. Can we outsuck Jax? Omaha.

Bewbies
11-05-2012, 07:30 AM
Omaha. Can we outsuck Jax? Omaha.

Jax would beat us by 20. We are the worst team any of us will ever watch.

NJChiefsFan
11-05-2012, 03:18 PM
wow it will be pretty cool if we do get a 1st overall pick

it will be our super bowl


I hope the project freakishly amazing yet not quite ready for NFL D-Lineman we end up with turns out to be a beast in 2017

Oh damn, good point. To avoid this I am now going to root for them to win a couple games and finish like 5-11. It won't due us any good whatsoever but at least the world will be black and white to me again. Admitting there is a grey area gives me a headache anyway........

Count Alex's Losses
11-05-2012, 05:02 PM
It should be pointed out that we have a 62 percent chance at the #1 pick.

The next closest team,JAX, is only at 20 percent and Cleveland is at 9 percent.

Chocolate Hog
11-05-2012, 05:05 PM
How the fuck is Jax only at 20%?

Sorter
11-05-2012, 05:14 PM
How the **** is Jax only at 20%?

No idea. They have to play the Titans 2X, the NYJ, Miami and Buffalo. I could see them winning 2-3 games.

Count Alex's Losses
11-05-2012, 05:15 PM
How the fuck is Jax only at 20%?

Because we are that fucking bad.

We have been blown out MORE than the Jags this year AND over the last four years.

cdcox
11-13-2012, 07:23 PM
Improved play by the Chiefs and worse play by the Jags have dropped our odds of getting the overall #1 pick to 57%.

DeezNutz
11-13-2012, 07:58 PM
Improved play by the Chiefs and worse play by the Jags have dropped our odds of getting the overall #1 pick to 57%.

I must have missed a game...

stonedstooge
11-13-2012, 08:06 PM
Improved play by the Chiefs and worse play by the Jags have dropped our odds of getting the overall #1 pick to 57%.

HELL YES, LET'S DANCE

cdcox
11-13-2012, 08:16 PM
Factoids.

If we win the rest of our games, we have a 25% chance of making the playoffs at 8-8.

Even under certain 7-9 scenarios, we can qualify for the playoffs, either as a division winner or as a wild card.

HemiEd
11-13-2012, 08:50 PM
Oh cool, sign Pioli to an extension while they are hot :D

tk13
11-13-2012, 09:04 PM
Factoids.

If we win the rest of our games, we have a 25% chance of making the playoffs at 8-8.

Even under certain 7-9 scenarios, we can qualify for the playoffs, either as a division winner or as a wild card.

I guess that's not too surprising. Even though the AFC has improved a bit... right now the six playoff teams are the only teams with winning records. The 1st team out of the playoffs is still the Chargers at 4-5, but they're two games out of the 6 seed.

On the flipside, the Steelers could be hurting now too with Ben out. The AFC is in pretty rough shape. The most amazing thing may be how great our odds to be the worst team are. There aren't many world beaters out there.

cdcox
11-18-2012, 04:02 PM
As of now, #1 overall pick odds:

Chiefs 66%
Jags 24%
Browns 6%
Field 4%

cdcox
11-18-2012, 04:04 PM
As of now, Chiefs still not eliminated from division title or WC game.

mr. tegu
11-18-2012, 04:08 PM
Both Cleveland and Jax took their games to OT but neither could pull it out. Losers.

scho63
11-18-2012, 04:17 PM
Both Cleveland and Jax took their games to OT but neither could pull it out. Losers.

I was rooting so hard for them

Rain Man
11-18-2012, 05:03 PM
As of now, #1 overall pick odds:

Chiefs 66%
Jags 24%
Browns 6%
Field 4%

I know it is unprecedented since the merger, but did we ever have the number 1 pick back in the AFL days? it still would not be the same since they were competing with the NFL, of course. it seems like maybe Buck Buchanan was a number 1 overall. ( just to be clear, buck was not a quarterback
.)

Ebolapox
11-18-2012, 05:59 PM
I know it is unprecedented since the merger, but did we ever have the number 1 pick back in the AFL days? it still would not be the same since they were competing with the NFL, of course. it seems like maybe Buck Buchanan was a number 1 overall. ( just to be clear, buck was not a quarterback
.)

Yes, Buck buchanan WAS the number one overall, but we got the pick by trading a QB (Cotton Davidson) to the raiders. crazy, huh?

Rain Man
11-18-2012, 06:15 PM
Yes, Buck buchanan WAS the number one overall, but we got the pick by trading a QB (Cotton Davidson) to the raiders. crazy, huh?

Well, that's odd.

cdcox
11-25-2012, 03:11 PM
Up to 81% chance of getting the overall first pick.

We can now win a freak game and still in all likelihood have the overall #1 pick, regardless of what else happens. I'll have the exact odds of that in a few minutes.

And we are eliminated from the playoffs.

Pants
11-25-2012, 03:14 PM
And we are eliminated from the playoffs.


:(

the Talking Can
11-25-2012, 03:17 PM
Up to 81% chance of getting the overall first pick.

We can now win a freak game and still in all likelihood have the overall #1 pick, regardless of what else happens. I'll have the exact odds of that in a few minutes.

And we are eliminated from the playoffs.

sweet

good news

Stanley Nickels
11-25-2012, 03:17 PM
Up to 81% chance of getting the overall first pick.

We can now win a freak game and still in all likelihood have the overall #1 pick, regardless of what else happens. I'll have the exact odds of that in a few minutes.

And we are eliminated from the playoffs.

If we beat Jacksonville, head-to-head trumps Opp. Win %, right?

PS THANK YOU JAGUARS.

JoeyChuckles
11-25-2012, 03:19 PM
If we beat Jacksonville, head-to-head trumps Opp. Win %, right?

PS THANK YOU JAGUARS.

The odds of that happening are officially 0%. Wanna bet on it?

FringeNC
11-25-2012, 03:20 PM
Now we need to be lucky and good with that draft pick. We need a front office in place that will choose the franchise QB instead of the bust. Maybe that's Geno Smith, maybe one of the other guys, but we can't F it up.

cdcox
11-25-2012, 03:21 PM
If we beat Jacksonville, head-to-head trumps Opp. Win %, right?

PS THANK YOU JAGUARS.

No. The only tiebreaker for draft pick is strength of schedule. Head to head means nothing. And we don't play the Jags.

cdcox
11-25-2012, 03:23 PM
If we win one game, and Jacksonville loses out, we will win the tiebreaker more than 99% of the time.

HMc
11-25-2012, 03:24 PM
Now we need to be lucky and good with that draft pick. We need a front office in place that will choose the franchise QB instead of the bust. Maybe that's Geno Smith, maybe one of the other guys, but we can't F it up.

QBs are too risky. we should take Guard / Tackle Hugh Thornton out of Illinois. Cassel is a pro bowl qb when he has some protection

:p

BigRedChief
11-25-2012, 03:24 PM
If we win one game, and Jacksonville loses out, we will win the tiebreaker more than 99% of the time.why don't you update the opening post?

Rain Man
11-25-2012, 03:24 PM
If we win one game, and Jacksonville loses out, we will win the tiebreaker more than 99% of the time.

I can't wait until we reach the point where we can root for a win and not lose draft ground.

cdcox
11-25-2012, 03:24 PM
Rain Man, you are okay wishing for the Chiefs to win one game. That's it though. Choose wisely.

Count Alex's Losses
11-25-2012, 03:27 PM
https://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash4/478129_482121921810724_1060939953_o.jpg

Rain Man
11-25-2012, 03:28 PM
Rain Man, you are okay wishing for the Chiefs to win one game. That's it though. Choose wisely.

Oh, man. What a gift. I'm going to think about this and really ponder which game I want us to win.

Broncos. I want us to beat the Broncos.

cdcox
11-25-2012, 03:28 PM
why don't you update the opening post?

Done.

Count Alex's Losses
11-25-2012, 03:30 PM
This is soooooo fucking awesome.

Rain Man
11-25-2012, 03:31 PM
We can afford to win a game, and in all likelihood, still take the number one overall pick. For example, if we win one game and Jacksonville loses out, we will still get the overall #1 pick 99% of the time.



Just to confirm, you mean one more game, right?

cdcox
11-25-2012, 03:34 PM
Just to confirm, you mean one more game, right?

LMAO Yes.

ChiefsandO'sfan
11-25-2012, 03:57 PM
Shawn Zobel ‏@ShawnZobel_DHQ

For Kansas City to NOT land the No. 1 pick, the Chiefs would need to win two of their final five games

cdcox
11-25-2012, 04:00 PM
Whoops. I had overlooked Carolina who is now maybe the greatest threat to stealing the #1 pick from us. Thanks to SNR for pointing out the threat in another thread. If we beat Carolina and both teams lose all of their remaining games, we win the tiebreaker only 75% of the time.

So Rain Man, you cannot root for the Chiefs next week, unless Carolina beats Phily.

Count Alex's Losses
11-25-2012, 04:10 PM
We won't beat Carolina. Their running game will own a very defeated Chiefs team that will quit if they haven't already.

Cleveland is the only game I worry about.

dirk digler
11-25-2012, 04:11 PM
We won't beat Carolina. Their running game will own a very defeated Chiefs team that will quit if they haven't already.

Cleveland is the only game I worry about.

Yep plus Cam will run all over this defense

JoeyChuckles
11-25-2012, 04:14 PM
Yep plus Cam will run all over this defense

We know that's not true.

scho63
11-25-2012, 04:21 PM
Kansas City Chiefs: your chances are 0.0%

Nightfyre
11-25-2012, 04:26 PM
Carolina could win on Monday night. :shrug:

Rain Man
11-25-2012, 04:32 PM
Whoops. I had overlooked Carolina who is now maybe the greatest threat to stealing the #1 pick from us. Thanks to SNR for pointing out the threat in another thread. If we beat Carolina and both teams lose all of their remaining games, we win the tiebreaker only 75% of the time.

So Rain Man, you cannot root for the Chiefs next week, unless Carolina beats Phily.

Okay, I'm going to root for Carolina against Philly, and if they lose then I'll just watch next week's Chiefs games with the dull glazed eyes of someone who has lived through great trauma.

cdcox
11-25-2012, 04:37 PM
Okay, I'm going to root for Carolina against Philly, and if they lose then I'll just watch next week's Chiefs games with the dull glazed eyes of someone who has lived through great trauma.

Sorry to rain on your parade.

Count Alex's Losses
11-25-2012, 11:55 PM
Has the software not been updated? Just downloaded it and the numbers haven't changed.

cdcox
11-26-2012, 12:17 AM
Has the software not been updated? Just downloaded it and the numbers haven't changed.

I had not updated the games from today. Done now.

NJChiefsFan
11-26-2012, 12:24 AM
I think there is a good chance CAR helps us out tomorrow night.

Count Alex's Losses
11-26-2012, 12:29 AM
Our draft schlong is HUUUGE

http://i.imgur.com/gQ6TT.jpg

the Talking Can
11-26-2012, 08:04 AM
I think there is a good chance CAR helps us out tomorrow night.

yup...mccoy is out with vick...

aturnis
12-02-2012, 02:05 PM
Why didn't this get bumped?

cdcox
12-02-2012, 03:03 PM
As of now odds of getting the #1 draft pick:

KC 57%
Jacksonville 25%
Oakland 7%
Philadelphia 5%
Cleveland 4.5%
Carolina 0.5%
Field 1%

Count Alex's Losses
12-02-2012, 03:05 PM
Go Browns.

Infidel Goat
12-02-2012, 03:06 PM
Pulling hard for the Jags over Jets next week. That's probably their most winnable game left...

JASONSAUTO
12-02-2012, 03:07 PM
Go Browns.

Wouldn't it be better if the raiders beat them
Posted via Mobile Device

alnorth
12-02-2012, 03:09 PM
A Browns/Raiders tie today would be very nice.

cdcox
12-02-2012, 03:10 PM
Wouldn't it be better if the raiders beat them
Posted via Mobile Device

A tie would be perfect.

JASONSAUTO
12-02-2012, 03:21 PM
A tie would be perfect.

They can actually tie?
Posted via Mobile Device

cdcox
12-02-2012, 03:28 PM
They can actually tie?
Posted via Mobile Device

Sure, if the score is tied after 5 quarters.

JASONSAUTO
12-02-2012, 03:29 PM
Sure, if the score is tied after 5 quarters.

Sorry I forgot to put /mcnabb
Posted via Mobile Device

Bewbies
12-02-2012, 03:31 PM
Need a Philly win tonight. Then it'll be the loser of the CLE/OAK game, Carolina left with 3, us and Jax with 2.

If we can lose to Oakland and Cleveland I really like our chances. GENO OR BUST!!

ChiefsandO'sfan
12-02-2012, 03:32 PM
Cleveland 3-8 @OAK, KC, WASH, @DEN, @PIT
Carolina 3-9 ATL, @SD, OAK, @NO
Kansas City 2-10 @CLE, @OAK, IND, @DEN
Jacksonville 2-10 NYJ, @MIA, NE, @TEN

Carolina at best wins 1 game. 4-12
Jags at best wins 1 game 3-13
Browns at best wins 1 game 4-12
Chiefs could wins 3 games (Browns,Oakland,Denver will have nothing to play for) 5-11




How do they get those Odds? Kc at 57%

cdcox
12-02-2012, 03:36 PM
Cleveland 3-8 @OAK, KC, WASH, @DEN, @PIT
Carolina 3-9 ATL, @SD, OAK, @NO
Kansas City 2-10 @CLE, @OAK, IND, @DEN
Jacksonville 2-10 NYJ, @MIA, NE, @TEN

Carolina at best win 1 game. 4-12
Jags at best win 1 game 3-13
Browns at best win 1 game 4-12
Chiefs could win 3 games (Browns,Oakland,Denver will have nothing to play for) 5-11




How do they get those Odds? Kc at 57%

I have my own software that simulates the remaining games of the NFL season thousands of times and applies the tiebreakers to determine playoff odds, draft position odds, etc. Been doing it around 14 years now.

nfl-forecast.com

Count Alex's Losses
12-02-2012, 03:37 PM
The Raiders are playing the Browns right now so that helps us. LMAO

aturnis
12-02-2012, 03:48 PM
Pulling hard for the Jags over Jets next week. That's probably their most winnable game left...

I think they could win any of their remaining games save NE.

Sully
12-02-2012, 03:54 PM
I'm not ready to concede that they are out of the playoffs!
-Karl Rove

(I know, I know... Keep it in DC)

The Bad Guy
12-02-2012, 03:58 PM
Today was a nice game, but this team is horrid on the road.

I like Cleveland's defense a lot, and I like their run game, a lot.

2 areas the Chiefs have real trouble with.

Chiefs are going 2-14, no doubt in my mind.

MahiMike
12-02-2012, 04:15 PM
Cannot believe we screwed up so badly today.

ChiefsandO'sfan
12-02-2012, 04:30 PM
Chiefs- 2-10 @CLE, @OAK ,IND,@DEN
Jags- 2-10 NYJ, @MIA , NE, @TEN
Carolina- 3-9 ATL , @SD , OAK , @NO
Oakland- 3-9 DEN , KC , @CAR , @SD
Browns- 4-8 KC , WASH , @DEN , @PITT
Eagels- 3-8 @TB , CINN , WASH , @NYG



Chiefs are gonna **** this up.

Chocolate Hog
12-02-2012, 04:42 PM
Fucking Oakland concerns me.

tk13
12-02-2012, 04:49 PM
You know, at this point if the Steelers and Cincy both lose today the Colts will be 2 games ahead of everyone else for a playoff spot. Colts play Houston 2 of the last 3 weeks so I wouldn't bet on this... but you run the risk of the Colts having nothing to play for either if all these teams keep losing.

That's what tough about this, you don't know what teams will be playing hard and which ones won't with so many teams way out front in their playoff races.

htismaqe
12-02-2012, 05:19 PM
The Chiefs had no turnovers and like 1 penalty today. That won't happen again the rest of the season.

Count Alex's Losses
12-02-2012, 06:12 PM
Browns have their game won.

How does that help us?

Or is it all about Jacksonville?

DeezNutz
12-02-2012, 06:13 PM
It's likely going to come down to losing at OAK to ensure the #1 overall pick.

alnorth
12-02-2012, 06:14 PM
Browns have their game won.

How does that help us?

Or is it all about Jacksonville?

Browns are pretty much eliminated. Had it been a tie, both the Browns and the Raiders would have been out.

ILChief
12-02-2012, 06:15 PM
Browns have their game won.

How does that help us?

Or is it all about Jacksonville?

I would guess it eliminates Cleveland and makes it a four team race with us, Jacksonville, Oakland, and Carolina with a tiny chance

ILChief
12-02-2012, 06:15 PM
I meant Philly not carolina

KCrockaholic
12-02-2012, 06:16 PM
So if we lose to Cleveland, but beat Oakland, what are our chances?

I don't remember the last time a 3-13 team had the #1 pick.

ChiefsandO'sfan
12-02-2012, 06:17 PM
If Kc and Oakland end up tied Oakland would get the top pick. That game in 2 weeks is big.

alnorth
12-02-2012, 06:17 PM
The SOS tiebreaker is fluid, but right now Oakland has the tiebreaker on us. (so does philly, but with their remaining schedule, that wont continue to be the case) That tiebreak might hold because Oakland's remaining schedule mostly sucks. So, we definitely need to lose to Oakland to put them out. Our 1 win cant be that one.

In any case we still must lose out unless Jacksonville wins 1, then we must lose at least 3 more games.

ILChief
12-02-2012, 06:17 PM
We really need Jacksonville to win one more.

cdcox
12-02-2012, 06:17 PM
Browns have their game won.

How does that help us?

Or is it all about Jacksonville?

Drops us to 54%
Bumps Oakland to 15%

Sorter
12-02-2012, 06:18 PM
I think that Jac wins against NYJ and they certainly have a chance against Tennessee.

Oakland worries me. Really need for McFadden to get healthy and for them to beat us.

Count Alex's Losses
12-02-2012, 06:19 PM
We are literally two weeks from the #1 pick. It is stressful that these two weeks could stop us from getting Geno.

cdcox
12-02-2012, 06:19 PM
We had a comfortable lead going into the day and we pissed it all away in a single week.

ChiefsandO'sfan
12-02-2012, 06:21 PM
We are literally two weeks from the #1 pick. It is stressful that these two weeks could stop us from getting Geno.

Chiefs will win last week Denver will have nothing to play for.




EDIT Nevermind Ravens shit the Bed.

cdcox
12-02-2012, 06:22 PM
We are literally two weeks from the #1 pick. It is stressful that these two weeks could stop us from getting Geno.

Even if we lose the next two we only have an 85% chance of getting the number 1 pick. Long way to go.

Sorter
12-02-2012, 06:24 PM
We are literally two weeks from the #1 pick. It is stressful that these two weeks could stop us from getting Geno.

I"M BUYING A FUCKING HENNE JERSEY!!!!!!!!!!

alnorth
12-02-2012, 06:25 PM
#1 KC 2-10 .515 SOS
#2 JAX 2-10 .577 SOS
#3 OAK 3-9 .508 SOS
#4 CAR 3-9 .533 SOS
#5 PHI 3-8 .492 SOS

Jacksonville's remaining schedule is tough, so they have zero chance at winning a tiebreak. They must lose out and hope for a KC win.

Oakland needs Jacksonville and KC to lose a game. If that happens, the SOS tiebreak with KC will be close.

Carolina needs at least 1 win from Jacksonville (they might win that tiebreak), 2+ wins from KC, and 1 win from Oakland.

Philly is in worse shape than Carolina and is basically eliminated (though maybe the OP will produce a few simulations where they somehow make it) unless everyone starts winning games. That SOS is going to skyrocket.

ChiefsandO'sfan
12-02-2012, 06:25 PM
It's likely going to come down to losing at OAK to ensure the #1 overall pick.

Chiefs- 2-10 @CLE, @OAK ,IND,@DEN
Jags- 2-10 NYJ, @MIA , NE, @TEN
Carolina- 3-9 ATL , @SD , OAK , @NO
Oakland- 3-9 DEN , KC , @CAR , @SD
Browns- 4-8 KC , WASH , @DEN , @PITT
Eagels- 3-8 @TB , CINN , WASH , @NYG



Just don't see. Chiefs could go 5-11 and end up picking out of the top 5.

O.city
12-02-2012, 06:26 PM
It's possible that the defense will be without DJ, Flowers, Lewis, for a while. Dorsey already out as well.


You think we can stop Richardson next week without both our starting MLB's? Nah.

Palmer and Luck will rip up our patchwork secondary as well.

People are failing to realize just how shitty the Panthers were/are.

Although, I think our offense might actually put some things together so there is that.

O.city
12-02-2012, 06:27 PM
Oakland is really the only game that worries me.

Browns are a physical team, we don't beat physical teams. Manning and Luck will be enough to beat us too.

Sorter
12-02-2012, 06:28 PM
Reggie Wayne/Josh Gordon/DHB vs. Thorpe makes me lol

DeezNutz
12-02-2012, 06:31 PM
Chiefs could go 5-11 and end up picking out of the top 5.

LMAO. LOL. Wait...LMAOLMAO

alnorth
12-02-2012, 06:32 PM
Hopefully the Iggles win tonight. They could beat Dallas.

cdcox
12-02-2012, 06:33 PM
Chiefs will win last week Denver will have nothing to play for.




EDIT Nevermind Ravens shit the Bed.

On average the difference between a win and a loss in week 17 for Denver is the difference in 0.6 seed positions. Going into the week they are going to have even more uncertainty. It's pretty unlikely Denver is going to clinch their seed with one week to go.

Ravens outcome didn't affect that too much.

alnorth
12-02-2012, 06:33 PM
Which of those teams are most likely to draft QB? I know if we don't have the pick and the #1 pick doesn't want Geno we'll probably be too gutless to trade up, but just out of curiosity, who among the five will pick Geno?

ChiefsandO'sfan
12-02-2012, 06:33 PM
LMAO. LOL. Wait...LMAOLMAO

Browns and Oakland are winnable games. Denver might not have anything to play for.

O.city
12-02-2012, 06:39 PM
We need McFadden to get healthy.


Richardson will run all over us next week. Could be without both starting ILB's, Flowers and Lewis on D.

It will get destroyed the next couple weeks.

KCrockaholic
12-02-2012, 06:48 PM
Even if we lose the next two we only have an 85% chance of getting the number 1 pick. Long way to go.

We need to lose the next 3 IMO. It's all about the next 3.

Count Alex's Losses
12-02-2012, 06:48 PM
It's just so fucking infuriating to be THIS CLOSE to a potential franchise QB.

And thinking about falling short.

Patriotards, just lose. For us.

Nightfyre
12-02-2012, 06:49 PM
Yea, I hope we lose the last three and JAX wins one so we can ram in in denver's ass at the end of the season.

cdcox
12-02-2012, 06:50 PM
Now:

KC 55%
Jax 24%
Oakland 15%
Philly 4%
Field 2%

ChiefsandO'sfan
12-02-2012, 06:50 PM
It's just so ****ing infuriating to be THIS CLOSE to a potential franchise QB.

And thinking about falling short.

Patriotards, just lose. For us.

Just think 1 Long Charles run and a Murder away from being 0-12

O.city
12-02-2012, 06:50 PM
I'm not sure a team like the Raiders would necessarily take a QB. They have so many other holes and Palmer has actually played really well.


Jacksonville on the other hand, will for sure.

So we may have to settle for Wilson if things don't go our way.

O.city
12-02-2012, 06:51 PM
If the Browns kick our ass next week and Jacksonville wins, that would do wonders.

Rain Man
12-02-2012, 06:52 PM
We need McFadden to get healthy.


Richardson will run all over us next week. Could be without both starting ILB's, Flowers and Lewis on D.

It will get destroyed the next couple weeks.

Did something happen to DJ? He looked fine in the post-game press conference clip that I saw.

JASONSAUTO
12-02-2012, 06:53 PM
Which of those teams are most likely to draft QB? I know if we don't have the pick and the #1 pick doesn't want Geno we'll probably be too gutless to trade up, but just out of curiosity, who among the five will pick Geno?
Jax, oak, Philly
Posted via Mobile Device

O.city
12-02-2012, 06:54 PM
Did something happen to DJ? He looked fine in the post-game press conference clip that I saw.

He didn't play the last couple possessions.

ChiefsandO'sfan
12-02-2012, 06:54 PM
Now:

KC 55%
Jax 24%
Oakland 15%
Philly 4%
Field 2%

Your system is flawed. Oakland and Philly look like they'll never win another game. The Chiefs will get at least 1 win. That's why I'm not buying that 55% number.

ChiefsandO'sfan
12-02-2012, 06:56 PM
We need McFadden to get healthy.


Richardson will run all over us next week. Could be without both starting ILB's, Flowers and Lewis on D.

It will get destroyed the next couple weeks.

Ian Rapoport ‏@RapSheet

Good news for #Raiders... and @NFLNetwork. RT @CorkOnTheNFL: Coach Allen said he expects McFadden to play Thursday night.

The Bad Guy
12-02-2012, 06:57 PM
Your system is flawed. Oakland and Philly look like they'll never win another game. The Chiefs will get at least 1 win. That's why I'm not buying that 55% number.

His system has been dead on as long as I can remember.

If McCoy and Vick come back, the Eagles can win a game.

I don't know how you say the system is flawed, but then in the next sentence state your own opinion about how it shakes out.

The Chiefs do not play a defense as bad as the Panthers again this year. They aren't winning another game.

ChiefsandO'sfan
12-02-2012, 06:57 PM
His system has been dead on as long as I can remember.

If McCoy and Vick come back, the Eagles can win a game.

I don't know how you say the system is flawed, but then in the next sentence state your own opinion about how it shakes out.

The Chiefs do not play a defense as bad as the Panthers again this year. They aren't winning another game.

Hope your right.

The Bad Guy
12-02-2012, 06:58 PM
It's just so ****ing infuriating to be THIS CLOSE to a potential franchise QB.

And thinking about falling short.

Patriotards, just lose. For us.

To be honest, I think there's going to be conflicting opinions among teams who is the true #1 QB.

It's not like if we do win a game and miss out on it, there's Andrew Luck sitting there.

JASONSAUTO
12-02-2012, 06:58 PM
His system has been dead on as long as I can remember.

If McCoy and Vick come back, the Eagles can win a game.

I don't know how you say the system is flawed, but then in the next sentence state your own opinion about how it shakes out.

The Chiefs do not play a defense as bad as the Panthers again this year. They aren't winning another game.
I knew that was how the asshole should come back. twitter says something, ceedy's system is flawed
Posted via Mobile Device

cdcox
12-02-2012, 06:58 PM
Your system is flawed. Oakland and Philly look like they'll never win another game. The Chiefs will get at least 1 win. That's why I'm not buying that 55% number.

People were saying the Chiefs wouldn't win another game last week. Now you have them sweeping their remaining games. The inherent strength of this system is that it rationally calculates the odds of the outcome of each game without human biases.

Rain Man
12-02-2012, 06:59 PM
He didn't play the last couple possessions.

I saw him on the sidelines, but I think that was a formation package. We had eight defensive backs in, with Hali, Poe, and one other guy rushing. (Houston?) I remember being surprised that he was out, but he looked like he was just watching.

I'm not positive that I'd rather have our eighth defensive back in the game over DJ, regardless of the formation.

O.city
12-02-2012, 07:01 PM
He was taken out of the game, went to the locker room and came back out with ice on his hamstring.

He's the only Lb we actually leave in on sub stuff, why would we replace him with Greenwood if he wasn't hurt?

cdcox
12-02-2012, 07:01 PM
I saw him on the sidelines, but I think that was a formation package. We had eight defensive backs in, with Hali, Poe, and one other guy rushing. (Houston?) I remember being surprised that he was out, but he looked like he was just watching.

I'm not positive that I'd rather have our eighth defensive back in the game over DJ, regardless of the formation.

He tweaked his hammy chasing Cam Newton and didn't come back after that.

R8RFAN
12-02-2012, 07:01 PM
People were saying the Chiefs wouldn't win another game last week. Now you have them sweeping their remaining games. The inherent strength of this system is that it rationally calculates the odds of the outcome of each game without human biases.

I don't think the Raiders win another game this year....

O.city
12-02-2012, 07:02 PM
Also the Faid have the Chargers, and they are in complete disarray.

ChiefsandO'sfan
12-02-2012, 07:04 PM
That Tebow vs the Jags game next week will be fun LOL

cdcox
12-02-2012, 07:04 PM
Also the Faid have the Chargers, and they are in complete disarray.

The Chargers have about a 0.5 to 1% chance to get the overall #1. They are part of "the field".

O.city
12-02-2012, 07:05 PM
The Chargers have about a 0.5 to 1% chance to get the overall #1. They are part of "the field".

Meant that the Faid could beat the Chargers.

ChiefsandO'sfan
12-02-2012, 07:05 PM
ESPN Stats & Info ‏@ESPNStatsInfo

Eagles enter tonight with 7-game losing streak; haven't lost 8 straight in single season since 1968


Hope the Eagles win tonight.

cdcox
12-02-2012, 07:06 PM
Meant that the Faid could beat the Chargers.

And I was agreeing that the Chargers are terrible.

R8RFAN
12-02-2012, 07:09 PM
Meant that the Faid could beat the Chargers.

No chance in hell, there is zero defense at the Raiders...

Rain Man
12-02-2012, 07:09 PM
I enjoy a season with a dramatic ending. Will we make it? Will we fail? We still control our own destiny, so it's up to the fine warriors in red.

highBOLTage
12-02-2012, 07:14 PM
The Chiefs do not play a defense as bad as the Panthers again this year. They aren't winning another game.

Raiders are worst in NFL in points against.

alnorth
12-02-2012, 07:16 PM
I don't think the Raiders win another game this year....

Oh, go to hell, we're losing to you in 2 weeks. Two weeks, YOU HEAR ME?!? We're going DOWN!

Priest31kc
12-02-2012, 07:18 PM
Raiders are worst in NFL in points against.

The Chiefs scored 13 points against them at home...and 7 of them were in garbage time.

We can never seem to run block very well against them, so we become one dimensional...And I know Quinn played the best game a Chiefs QB has played this year, but I can't see him playing that well again this year, especially on the road.

R8RFAN
12-02-2012, 07:21 PM
Oh, go to hell, we're losing to you in 2 weeks. Two weeks, YOU HEAR ME?!? We're going DOWN!

Not unless you break Charles' leg ....

Seriously, we have the worst defense I have ever seen in my entire life.

Chiefs 27... Raiders 20

Sorter
12-02-2012, 07:21 PM
The Chiefs scored 13 points against them at home...and 7 of them were in garbage time.

We can never seem to run block very well against them, so we become one dimensional...And I know Quinn played the best game a Chiefs QB has played this year, but I can't see him playing that well again this year, especially on the road.

We really haven't been able to block well against them in any aspect recently.

cdcox
12-02-2012, 07:37 PM
The end of season tiebreakers for the overall #1 pick breakdown like this:

Against the Jags we almost always win

Against the Raiders we always lose.

Against Phili we win about 82% of the tiebreakers.

NJChiefsFan
12-02-2012, 07:53 PM
That Tebow vs the Jags game next week will be fun LOL

A lot of people around here have wanted McElroy to start over Sanchez. There will be a good amount of push to keep him in over Tebow.

alnorth
12-02-2012, 08:14 PM
The end of season tiebreakers for the overall #1 pick breakdown like this:

Against the Jags we almost always win

Against the Raiders we always lose.

Against Phili we win about 82% of the tiebreakers.

How often does a 4-game winner get the #1 pick? (and whats the distribution of teams for that unlikely scenario?)

cdcox
12-02-2012, 08:41 PM
How often does a 4-game winner get the #1 pick? (and whats the distribution of teams for that unlikely scenario?)

My simulator isn't really set up to answer this question easily, but a 4 win team will get the #1 pick in roughly 6% of the seasons, with Oakland the most likely team to be in this situation.

Chiefs Pantalones
12-02-2012, 09:29 PM
Carr just helped us a bit.

ChiefsandO'sfan
12-02-2012, 10:24 PM
Chiefs- 2-10 @CLE, @OAK ,IND,@DEN
Jags- 2-10 NYJ, @MIA , NE, @TEN
Carolina- 3-9 ATL , @SD , OAK , @NO
Oakland- 3-9 DEN , KC , @CAR , @SD
Eagels- 3-9 @TB , CINN , WASH , @NYG
Browns- 4-8 KC , WASH , @DEN , @PITT


Updated

O.city
12-02-2012, 10:40 PM
The Panthers are shit as well so Oak might sneak a win in there.


In the end tho, we've come to far to fuck up now. Just swallow that pill and lose out.

ChiefsandO'sfan
12-02-2012, 10:55 PM
Shawn Zobel ‏@ShawnZobel_DHQ

Current 2013 NFL Draft order following today's games: 1. Kansas City, 2. Jacksonville, 3. Oakland, 4. Philadelphia, 5. Carolina

O.city
12-02-2012, 10:56 PM
Is MJD coming back this year?

ChiefsandO'sfan
12-02-2012, 10:58 PM
Is MJD coming back this year?

Not sure but i really think they can beat the Jets at home this week.

Calling it now Oakland beats Denver Thursday night.

alnorth
12-02-2012, 10:59 PM
Not sure but i really think they can beat the Jets at home this week.

Calling it now Oakland beats Denver Thursday night.

That would be very, very good news.

We should still be concerned about Jacksonville, but if we both won a game, Oakland would be our biggest threat.

O.city
12-02-2012, 11:06 PM
We just need to lose out.


Which is quite possible. Need to just sit Flowers, DJ and Lewis the rest of the way out.

NJChiefsFan
12-02-2012, 11:12 PM
We just need to lose out.


Which is quite possible. Need to just sit Flowers, DJ and Lewis the rest of the way out.

What?! The true fans are just starting to have fun. Imagine how great it would feel to win another game or two. Would make the team feel good about themselves.

The more you hear and see over the losing seasons, the more this fan base deserves what it gets. Sucks for us though. People just don't really care if we win a SB. It would be nice, but not at the expense of fun on the NEXT game day.

alnorth
12-03-2012, 12:01 AM
Brad Pitt, Moneyball, trade deadline scene:

(about Geno Smith) Oh, I want this one bad....

Sorter
12-03-2012, 12:10 AM
Shawn Zobel ‏@ShawnZobel_DHQ

Current 2013 NFL Draft order following today's games: 1. Kansas City, 2. Jacksonville, 3. Oakland, 4. Philadelphia, 5. Carolina

Zobel is a moron but I hope he gets this right.

DaneMcCloud
12-03-2012, 12:51 AM
Zobel is a moron but I hope he gets this right.

For the first time all season, I've got a bad feeling. Bad as in the Chiefs choose Te'o with like the 4th pick and Glennon in the second round.

Ugh.

Sorter
12-03-2012, 12:55 AM
For the first time all season, I've got a bad feeling. Bad as in the Chiefs choose Te'o with like the 4th pick and Glennon in the second round.

Ugh.

I will not be happy. Taking an ILB in the top 10 is a mistake IMO.

Drafting Glennon as your franchise QB would be a mistake as well.

DaneMcCloud
12-03-2012, 01:09 AM
I will not be happy. Taking an ILB in the top 10 is a mistake IMO.

Drafting Glennon as your franchise QB would be a mistake as well.

I agree 100%.

But right now, on December 2, 2012, neither would surprise me.

Sorter
12-03-2012, 01:13 AM
I agree 100%.

But right now, on December 2, 2012, neither would surprise me.

Yup.

It's will honestly be worst than last year if we fuck this up. We were close to getting Luck/RG3 or Tannehill and if we don't end up with Geno or even Wilson, I am gonna be sad.

Especially if we take an ILB in the top 10. JFC.

AussieChiefsFan
12-03-2012, 01:23 AM
Really is Geno or bust.....

BossChief
12-03-2012, 02:31 AM
I'm gonna cry if Geno ends up a raider.

AussieChiefsFan
12-03-2012, 03:00 AM
I'm gonna cry if Geno ends up a raider.DONT EVEN SAY THAT!!!!!

Count Alex's Losses
12-03-2012, 03:07 AM
Chill out guys.

It's not the end of the world if we take Wilson.

AussieChiefsFan
12-03-2012, 03:10 AM
Chill out guys.

It's not the end of the world if we take Wilson.No. But it would be if a) Chiefs pass on Geno or b) Raiders draft Geno.

Tribal Warfare
12-03-2012, 03:15 AM
Chill out guys.

It's not the end of the world if we take Wilson.

personally I'd rather have Bray, Wilson has an injury history and has taken a shitload of hits already.

Urc Burry
12-03-2012, 07:20 AM
I'm actually a fan of Wilson. He's got a shit o-line and shit receivers and stills led plays. He is also as tough as it gets. But he does make some poooor decisions. The tape from the ole miss game is pretty bad

htismaqe
12-03-2012, 07:34 AM
Chill out guys.

It's not the end of the world if we take Wilson.

It's not the end of the world if we get the #2 pick then. :D