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Taco John
10-10-2012, 09:59 PM
All this Romney momentum isn't translating into leads in swing states:

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/10/10/latest_swing_state_polls.html


Here are the latest polls from the battleground states:

Florida: Obama 49%, Romney 45% (University of North Florida)

Nevada: Obama 47%, Romney 46% (SurveyUSA)

Nevada: Obama 51%, Romney 47% (Public Policy Polling)

New Hampshire: Obama 48%, Romney 48% (Rasmussen)

Ohio: Obama 45%, Romney 44% (SurveyUSA)

Ohio: Obama 46%, Romney 42% (Newsmax/Zogby)

Pennsylvania: Obama 51%, Romney 46% (Rasmussen)

Pennsylvania: Obama 50%, Romney 42% (Philadelphia Inquirer)

Wisconsin: Obama 51%, Romney 49% (Rasmussen)

Taco John
10-10-2012, 10:00 PM
I'll be interested to see what the next debate does to these numbers. I was wondering why Intrade wasn't responding to the continued Romney buzz, and came across this - which pretty well explains it.

Iowanian
10-10-2012, 10:00 PM
You forgot to say Amen

<iframe width="420" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/IivGqwQvdCI" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

Taco John
10-10-2012, 10:02 PM
You forgot to say Amen



Doesn't matter to me who wins. I'm interested in it only for the horse race. Whichever of these leftys win, we all lose.

Taco John
10-10-2012, 10:03 PM
You forgot to say Amen



I haven't seen Romney's position on farming welfare. He must not be a threat to you, huh?

Iowanian
10-10-2012, 10:09 PM
It might get to me if I received any or thought it was necessary with today's markets.


Keep Reaching though Webster, George is in the sky now.

BucEyedPea
10-10-2012, 10:25 PM
Surprised at the Florida numbers. The paper had a headline here saying, Floridians are largely undecided and aren't crazy about either. That could swing either way.

ClevelandBronco
10-10-2012, 10:36 PM
What's a paper?

jjjayb
10-10-2012, 10:50 PM
Pick a poll here, pick a poll there.....

AustinChief
10-10-2012, 10:54 PM
All this Romney momentum isn't translating into leads in swing states:

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/10/10/latest_swing_state_polls.html


Here are the latest polls from the battleground states:

Florida: Obama 49%, Romney 45% (University of North Florida)

Nevada: Obama 47%, Romney 46% (SurveyUSA)

Nevada: Obama 51%, Romney 47% (Public Policy Polling)

New Hampshire: Obama 48%, Romney 48% (Rasmussen)

Ohio: Obama 45%, Romney 44% (SurveyUSA)

Ohio: Obama 46%, Romney 42% (Newsmax/Zogby)

Pennsylvania: Obama 51%, Romney 46% (Rasmussen)

Pennsylvania: Obama 50%, Romney 42% (Philadelphia Inquirer)

Wisconsin: Obama 51%, Romney 49% (Rasmussen)

Dude, check your info before you post. These are cherry picked polls.

Florida poll quoted has pre-debate data. The two after the debate have Romney by 2 or 3 points.

Nevada is correct but they conveniently left off Rasmussen which has it tied.

New Hampshire they got right because that is the only post-debate poll.

Ohio they conveniently leave off one poll which has Romney ahead by 1.

Penn and Wisconsin they got right.


And now I will never take anything from PoliticalWire.com seriously. What a fucking sham to leave off any polls that you can get away with if they don't show what you want. And it's not like they just dropped all Rasmussen or whatever, they went out of their way to cherry pick this crap.

Comrade Crapski
10-10-2012, 10:55 PM
Pick a poll here, pick a poll there.....

Here a poll there a poll

cosmo20002
10-10-2012, 11:24 PM
All this Romney momentum isn't translating into leads in swing states:

http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/10/10/latest_swing_state_polls.html


Here are the latest polls from the battleground states:

Florida: Obama 49%, Romney 45% (University of North Florida)

Nevada: Obama 47%, Romney 46% (SurveyUSA)

Nevada: Obama 51%, Romney 47% (Public Policy Polling)

New Hampshire: Obama 48%, Romney 48% (Rasmussen)

Ohio: Obama 45%, Romney 44% (SurveyUSA)

Ohio: Obama 46%, Romney 42% (Newsmax/Zogby)

Pennsylvania: Obama 51%, Romney 46% (Rasmussen)

Pennsylvania: Obama 50%, Romney 42% (Philadelphia Inquirer)

Wisconsin: Obama 51%, Romney 49% (Rasmussen)

With all the constant national polls--the ones the Rs said were biased until last week--people forget that it is the STATE polls that matter. And of those only a few really matter--and for Romney--maybe just one--Ohio.

cosmo20002
10-10-2012, 11:26 PM
I haven't seen Romney's position on farming welfare. He must not be a threat to you, huh?

I'm going to go out on a limb here and say his position is...both. Not sure what the most recent one is though.

RINGLEADER
10-11-2012, 12:01 AM
I'm not sure how you can say it isn't translating into state polls. The averages in OH were almost +5 Obama last week. Now he's bare +1. He was up in VA, CO, FL, NC. Now Romney leads or is tied. Other states like MI and PA and NH were way out of reach. Now Rasmussen shows it tied and there is a McLaughlin poll coming out of PA tomorrow that shows Romney up by 3 there.

He may not be up everywhere, but he has made up a lot of distance in a week.

If you're to believe the political insiders the Monday numbers that showed up yesterday were Romney's highest ever. Will be interesting to see if the trajectory continues, levels out, or recedes.

RINGLEADER
10-11-2012, 12:04 AM
With all the constant national polls--the ones the Rs said were biased until last week--people forget that it is the STATE polls that matter. And of those only a few really matter--and for Romney--maybe just one--Ohio.

If Romney doesn't win OH he has to win both Nevada and Iowa and then either Wisconsin or Colorado (presuming he wins FL and VA).

If he wins Wisconsin and he wins IA and NV he wins outright even without OH.

If he wins CO and IA and NV it ends in a tie without OH, in which case Romney wins.

My guess is that it won't quite be that close...

patteeu
10-11-2012, 04:23 AM
With all the constant national polls--the ones the Rs said were biased until last week--people forget that it is the STATE polls that matter. And of those only a few really matter--and for Romney--maybe just one--Ohio.

I don't know which polls are biased (if any) and which ones aren't, but the critics of the early polls always acknowledged that the professional pollsters would seek to improve the accuracy of their polls as the election approaches. There's nothing inconsistent with alleging that an early Sept. poll from firm X is biased (intended to influence rather than inform) and accepting a mid October poll from firm X as legit.

Guru
10-11-2012, 05:28 AM
If Romney doesn't win OH he has to win both Nevada and Iowa and then either Wisconsin or Colorado (presuming he wins FL and VA).

If he wins Wisconsin and he wins IA and NV he wins outright even without OH.

If he wins CO and IA and NV it ends in a tie without OH, in which case Romney wins.

My guess is that it won't quite be that close...

God I'm sick of Ohio.

Ohio
Ohio
Ohio

RINGLEADER
10-11-2012, 11:58 AM
Sure looks different to me...

http://imageshack.us/a/img21/2483/mapbv.jpg