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View Full Version : Elections For visual learners: Why Obama has Romney by the nutsack


SNR
11-04-2012, 08:52 PM
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2012/11/02/us/politics/paths-to-the-white-house.html

Yeah, this is a bit of a repost. Suck my balls. This point hasn't been made in this visual way yet, which is kind of cool and really demonstrates well how screwed Romney is.

The reason why Obama has him cornered is thus: Assume Obama takes Ohio and Wisconsin (which are likely Obama states at this point). Look at the number of ways Romney can win now. Just one. That's it.

Screw voter turnout, screw all that other garbage. Just one. He has to clean sweep all of those states to win. And while I have no doubt he'll take Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, and even Colorado, those other states don't look very good for him. Nevada is pretty much a lost cause, and I think Iowa isn't going to fall his way either.

He's just out of options. That's his problem. There are very few ways he can pull this off where he doesn't depend on one or both of Wisconsin and Ohio.

BigRedChief
11-04-2012, 09:54 PM
There is a late break for Obama underway in Florida. If somehow someway Obama pulls this off, it's gave over by 8:00pm.

nstygma
11-04-2012, 10:00 PM
5 paths to a tie!!
i would like that outcome

BigMeatballDave
11-05-2012, 01:33 AM
Cool.

Enjoy the 20+ billion in deficit in 4 yrs.

SNR, I am disappoint.

With all you football expertise, you're gonna pull for Barry?

:)

SNR
11-05-2012, 01:55 AM
Cool.

Enjoy the 20+ billion in deficit in 4 yrs.

SNR, I am disappoint.

With all you football expertise, you're gonna pull for Fece?

:)

I'm pulling for a meteor to fuck up everything and put the 37th in command into power.

If somebody held a gun to my head and told me I had to vote for either Obama or Romney, I would vote Romney. But since that's not going to happen, I will be voting for Gary Johnson this time around.

Pawnmower
11-05-2012, 02:14 AM
Whats the late break?

Comrade Crapski
11-05-2012, 02:22 AM
Of the three largest battleground states, Mr. Obama has the largest lead in Ohio partly because of a strong local economy and the auto industry bailout. If he loses here, it's likely he will trail in Florida and North Carolina too. Losing all three leaves him with only 14 ways to win.


:spock:

Enjoy the circle jerk, moonbats. The hourglass is almost out of sand for that communist POS.

Pawnmower
11-05-2012, 02:25 AM
Of the three largest battleground states, Mr. Obama has the largest lead in Ohio partly because of a strong local economy and the auto industry bailout. If he loses here, it's likely he will trail in Florida and North Carolina too. Losing all three leaves him with only 14 ways to win.


:spock:

Enjoy the circle jerk, moonbats. The hourglass is almost out of sand for that communist POS.

You are getting my dick hard.

If you're wrong, I will not be kind to you.

BigMeatballDave
11-05-2012, 06:57 AM
I'm pulling for a meteor to fuck up everything and put the 37th in command into power.

If somebody held a gun to my head and told me I had to vote for either Obama or Romney, I would vote Romney. But since that's not going to happen, I will be voting for Gary Johnson this time around.

Ah! Okay, I retract my 'disappoint'.

Chiefshrink
11-05-2012, 07:33 AM
There is a late break for Obama underway in Florida. If somehow someway Obama pulls this off, it's gave over by 8:00pm.

Based on what ? Polls ??? ROFL

Chiefshrink
11-05-2012, 07:37 AM
But since that's not going to happen, I will be voting for Gary Johnson this time around.

And you just voted for Obama indirectly helping him which shows you are a young naive ideologue who doesn't get it.:rolleyes: Nothing personal here.

Just hold your nose and vote for Mittens if you are wise.:hmmm:

BucEyedPea
11-05-2012, 07:50 AM
There is a late break for Obama underway in Florida. If somehow someway Obama pulls this off, it's gave over by 8:00pm.

I am not seeing that....but the opposite. Whatever happens though, spending happens in the House and that will remain Republican. It's just bad for Obamacare but Florida has an amendment where we can opt out. That is the only thing Mitt has going for him ( only on a 50/50 basis though) besides understanding market principles better than Obama. His advisors are salivating for war though...I think that's what's hurting him with the naive who think it won't happen under Obama either.

Mr. Kotter
11-05-2012, 07:55 AM
There is a late break for Obama underway in Florida. If somehow someway Obama pulls this off, it's gave over by 8:00pm.

Yep. Same for Virginia. The give-away is Romney throwing a hail Mary in PA....hoping to undo losing FL or VA.

mikey23545
11-05-2012, 07:58 AM
This shit is hilarious...LMAO

It will not even be close. Obama is finished.

SNR
11-05-2012, 08:00 AM
And you just voted for Obama indirectly helping him which shows you are a young naive ideologue who doesn't get it.:rolleyes: Nothing personal here.

Just hold your nose and vote for Mittens if you are wise.:hmmm:
My state is going for Obama, dumbass. My vote doesn't matter and even if it did, I'm in a district where Romney has no shot at all. He'll lose by 30+ in Dane County.

Just shut the fuck up and put the talking points away.

Mr. Kotter
11-05-2012, 08:03 AM
This shit is hilarious...LMAO

It will not even be close. Obama is finished.

Hope you have plans to take Wednesday off....you and other delusional RWNJs will be a basketcase.

oldandslow
11-05-2012, 08:05 AM
This shit is hilarious...LMAO

It will not even be close. Obama is finished.

Sure he is...

oldandslow
11-05-2012, 08:06 AM
Hope you have plans to take Wednesday off....you and other delusional RWNJs will be a basketcase.

Yep.

Brock
11-05-2012, 09:28 AM
This shit is hilarious...LMAO

It will not even be close. Obama is finished.

Dude, you need to wake up. for realz.

vailpass
11-05-2012, 09:32 AM
Hope you have plans to take Wednesday off....you and other delusional RWNJs will be a basketcase.

Not at all. We'll just continue on in the freeze mode we've been in for the past four years as the battle to stonewall obama intensifies and massive gridlock grows.
We're patient and are able to wait it out.

ChiefsCountry
11-05-2012, 09:34 AM
This shit is hilarious...LMAO

It will not even be close. Obama is finished.

Redskins lost yesterday so he is done. :)
Posted via Mobile Device

Mr. Kotter
11-05-2012, 09:42 AM
Not at all. We'll just continue on in the freeze mode we've been in for the past four years as the battle to stonewall obama intensifies and massive gridlock grows.
We're patient and are able to wait it out.

If that's really true....I guess the predictions of 9 million new jobs over the next four years (regardless of who wins the election) that we've been hearing from non-partisan groups is not gonna happen afterall. Dang, you cons sure are stubborn and all--cutting off your nose to spite your face. Yeah, that will show America alright! You go, fellas....

vailpass
11-05-2012, 09:45 AM
If that's really true....I guess the predictions of 9 million new jobs over the next four years that we've been hearing from non-partisan groups is not gonna happen afterall. Dang, you cons sure are stubborn and all--cutting off your nose to spite your face. Yeah, that will show America alright.

1-Where does this 9 million figure come from?
2-What kind of jobs are they supposed to be? What will they pay?


If we get 9 million people who used to earn a decent living until they lost their jobs and they now have to take jobs that pay $10-$12/hour will you consider that a positive?

Mr. Kotter
11-05-2012, 09:56 AM
1-Where does this 9 million figure come from?
2-What kind of jobs are they supposed to be? What will they pay?


If we get 9 million people who used to earn a decent living until they lost their jobs and they now have to take jobs that pay $10-$12/hour will you consider that a positive?

Tried to do a quick google....IIRC it was the CBO/independent group of economists, it was widely quoted around the second Presidential debate. I'll see if I can pull it up later; don't recall if it made specific predictions about the types of jobs. Bottom-line is, whoever wins the election....their party will likely benefit from that, even though their policies will have little impact on what's going to happen the next four years.

SNR
11-05-2012, 11:10 AM
Also, I don't want to hear "I told you so"s from the Republican crowd if Romney wins.

I posted this to show you that Obama has WAY more ways to win the election than Romney does. And that's how you win elections. Every candidate usually wins a surprising state or two and loses a surprising state or two. Happens every year. Best way to secure victory? Keep lots and lots of options open.

The odds are in Obama's favor. To say otherwise is silly.

vailpass
11-05-2012, 11:24 AM
Also, I don't want to hear "I told you so"s from the Republican crowd if Romney wins.

I posted this to show you that Obama has WAY more ways to win the election than Romney does. And that's how you win elections. Every candidate usually wins a surprising state or two and loses a surprising state or two. Happens every year. Best way to secure victory? Keep lots and lots of options open.

The odds are in Obama's favor. To say otherwise is silly.

How far down our country has fallen.

SNR
11-05-2012, 11:32 AM
How far down our country has fallen.
That's the state of the country today.

The voting electorate is full of people who think: "Romney said 'binders full of women'. How can I vote for him?"

J Diddy
11-05-2012, 11:35 AM
Not at all. We'll just continue on in the freeze mode we've been in for the past four years as the battle to stonewall obama intensifies and massive gridlock grows.
We're patient and are able to wait it out.

That tactic lost the election for you this time and will probably lose it for you next time.

Mr. Kotter
11-05-2012, 11:38 AM
That's the state of the country today.

The voting electorate is full of people who think: "Romney said 'binders full of women'. How can I vote for him?"



It has much more to do with his etcha-sketch ideology, his gender gap, his Mormonism....than anything to do with that. Bottom-line is, if the GOP had nominated a real candidate instead of an empty-suit, they'd probably be celebrating tomorrow instead of scratching their heads and whining about "stupid voters!"

Face it; he's the GOP's version of John Kerry in this election. A lousy, lousy candidate.

Donger
11-05-2012, 11:43 AM
I see lots of Hope from Obama supporters. That's nice.

Bewbies
11-05-2012, 11:43 AM
Yep. Same for Virginia. The give-away is Romney throwing a hail Mary in PA....hoping to undo losing FL or VA.

So he's campaigning in PA so he gets points in VA or FL? BRILLIANT! LMAO

Hoover
11-05-2012, 11:43 AM
And if Romney wins either Penn or Minn the hole thing is as worthless as the Chiefs on Sunday.

Bewbies
11-05-2012, 11:44 AM
When Romney wins what we will be the reasons given? Fraud due to the inaccuracy of polling data?

Will the media throw Obama under the bus and blame him and try to save his ideology?

RINGLEADER
11-05-2012, 11:45 AM
Two things will determine who wins:

IND - If CBS and other polls that have Romney up double-digits with IND proves to be accurate Obama is history. Personally, I think it will tighten, but at a double-digit IND lead would be a tidal wave that a state-by-state strategy couldn't fend off.

PARTY TURNOUT - Tied to the above. If the GOP enthusiasm is as high as polls show, Obama again is in deep trouble. If he loses INDs (even by single digits) he needs to pull several percent more DEMs.

Other than that it is all guessing. But if Obama can get a 4%+ advantage in party turnout and keep Romney around under +6 with INDs he will win. If not, he will lose. If he does he'll take all the battlegrounds IMO. If not, Romney will take them.

Donger
11-05-2012, 11:46 AM
Two things will determine who wins:

IND - If CBS and other polls that have Romney up double-digits with IND proves to be accurate Obama is history. Personally, I think it will tighten, but at a double-digit IND lead would be a tidal wave that a state-by-state strategy couldn't fend off.

PARTY TURNOUT - Tied to the above. If the GOP enthusiasm is as high as polls show, Obama again is in deep trouble. If he loses INDs (even by single digits) he needs to pull several percent more DEMs.

Other than that it is all guessing. But if Obama can get a 4%+ advantage in party turnout and keep Romney around under +6 with INDs he will win. If not, he will lose. If he does he'll take all the battlegrounds IMO. If not, Romney will take them.

You are SO behind. Romney's already lost. See above.

DaFace
11-05-2012, 11:53 AM
I'm completely convinced that 90% of people who post in here are nutjobs. Is there something about enjoying political discussion that causes people to completely abandon their ability to discuss things rationally?

vailpass
11-05-2012, 11:54 AM
That tactic lost the election for you this time and will probably lose it for you next time.

I didn't run for anything last time, not this time either.
That tactic had nothing to do with why obama duped his way into the White House last time, it came in response to his being elected as a means of minimizing the damage of his disastrous policy making .

It has nothing to do with whether he will be re-elected either. I wish it did. that would mean the election is being decided upon merits. Unfortunately anyone who votes for obama is doing so in spite of the merits, not because of them.

Donger
11-05-2012, 11:56 AM
I'm completely convinced that 90% of people who post in here are nutjobs. Is there something about enjoying political discussion that causes people to completely abandon their ability to discuss things rationally?

Go fuck yourself, neo Fascist!

RINGLEADER
11-05-2012, 12:01 PM
I'm completely convinced that 90% of people who post in here are nutjobs. Is there something about enjoying political discussion that causes people to completely abandon their ability to discuss things rationally?

I think it's mostly civil. There's a bit of that "WTF is Matt Cassel doing trying to sneak it on the goalline and fumbling" emotion that seeps in from time-to-time, but I think we all more or less know where everyone stands and are respectful of the other side.

If you're dispassionate about all this and just look at the data you have to say that Obama has a slight lead within the margin of error. If you think the weighting in polls like CNN which anticipates a +11 Dem turnout (and would be showing a Romney lead well outside the margin of error if it embraced the voter enthusiasm that shows up in a lot of polls) then you think Romney has a chance.

Again, my prediction is that the winner will take most of the battlegrounds. But I don't have a clue who that is. If I had to guess, I'd probably conclude Obama has a slightly better chance, but if he wins it will be a landslide. Same for Romney.

oldandslow
11-05-2012, 12:02 PM
And if Romney wins either Penn or Minn the hole thing is as worthless as the Chiefs on Sunday.

He's not.

Ohio is the state he had to have, and it seems he cannot garner enough support there.

Mr. Kotter
11-05-2012, 12:06 PM
So he's campaigning in PA so he gets points in VA or FL? BRILLIANT! LMAO

No, he now stands to possibly lose VA or even FL....so he's hoping to make PA a fall-back position.

RINGLEADER
11-05-2012, 12:06 PM
He's not.

Ohio is the state he had to have, and it seems he cannot garner enough support there.

I don't understand what evidence the left is using to come to this conclusion?

Polls that show it within the margin of error?

Lower early/absentee voting for Dems?

Higher early/absentee voting for GOP?

I know Obama is up in most polls and that certainly indicates a sentiment. Kerry was also up in the polls on election day 2004. He lost by six-figures.

RINGLEADER
11-05-2012, 12:06 PM
No, he now stands to possibly lose VA or even FL....so he's hoping to make PA a fall-back position.

If that was the Romney plan they're done.

If Obama wins VA/FL he's winning PA.

SNR
11-05-2012, 12:13 PM
And if Romney wins either Penn or Minn the hole thing is as worthless as the Chiefs on Sunday.
If the Chiefs trade Matt Cassel for Aaron Rodgers and hire a good coach, they'll win a playoff game next year

SNR
11-05-2012, 12:14 PM
Obama isn't winning Florida. And Romney isn't winning Wisconsin or Nevada. Enough with these "Uhhhohhhh last minute surge!" pieces of shit I see all over the place.

oldandslow
11-05-2012, 12:15 PM
I don't understand what evidence the left is using to come to this conclusion?

Polls that show it within the margin of error?

Lower early/absentee voting for Dems?

Higher early/absentee voting for GOP?

I know Obama is up in most polls and that certainly indicates a sentiment. Kerry was also up in the polls on election day 2004. He lost by six-figures.

No Kerry wasn't. Poll of polls at real clear politics gave Bush the lead by a couple of points.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html

Minn is outside the margin for error.

PA has Obama up about 4 - avg all polls.

Mr. Kotter
11-05-2012, 12:15 PM
If that was the Romney plan they're done.

If Obama wins VA/FL he's winning PA.

Agreed. Which is, precisely, why I say--it is done. :)

cosmo20002
11-05-2012, 12:21 PM
I don't understand what evidence the left is using to come to this conclusion?

I know Obama is up in most polls and that certainly indicates a sentiment. Kerry was also up in the polls on election day 2004. He lost by six-figures.

I believe Kerry was up in some of the exit polling on the day of.
"Six figures" is not a huge amount. George W "lost" by six figures and still won.

Hoover
11-05-2012, 12:26 PM
He's not.

Ohio is the state he had to have, and it seems he cannot garner enough support there.
Says who?

I've been telling you guys that these polls don't pick up voters intensity in rural areas. I know a lot of informed people who believe Romney will win Ohio. And I'm not talking about some talking head or member of the media. I'm talking number crunchers who don't looks at polls, but look at voters.

Graystoke
11-05-2012, 12:32 PM
I think the Media is trying to make this into a horse race.
Sorry to disapoint but I think Obama has this.

oldandslow
11-05-2012, 12:33 PM
Says who?

I've been telling you guys that these polls don't pick up voters intensity in rural areas. I know a lot of informed people who believe Romney will win Ohio. And I'm not talking about some talking head or member of the media. I'm talking number crunchers who don't looks at polls, but look at voters.

We'll see. You can claim the polls are all wrong, and they may be in a state or two. But MINN is not in play. And I doubt PA is. All the rural voters in the state don't outweigh Philly and Pittsburg.

Hoover
11-05-2012, 12:37 PM
I've seen Minn polling data for the last 8 weeks. It is in play.

The current PPP Poll that shows Voter ID and Marriage Amendment is LAUGHABLE. Those are not 40% issues, not even close. Those two issues being on the ballot is what is helping make the state competitive. Can Romney win it? Maybe. The state is in play and that says a lot.

Hoover
11-05-2012, 12:38 PM
What makes Penn interesting is that it doesn't allow early voting. You should also remember that the state has elected very conservative Republicans to the U.S. Senate. That means people in Philly and Pitt voted for them too.

ReynardMuldrake
11-05-2012, 12:40 PM
I'm completely convinced that 90% of people who post in here are nutjobs. Is there something about enjoying political discussion that causes people to completely abandon their ability to discuss things rationally?

I think it's more of an inability/unwillingness to look at things from someone else's perspective. You end up with a group of people talking past each other but not listening.

Mr. Kotter
11-05-2012, 12:42 PM
Says who?

I've been telling you guys that these polls don't pick up voters intensity in rural areas. I know a lot of informed people who believe Romney will win Ohio. And I'm not talking about some talking head or member of the media. I'm talking number crunchers who don't looks at polls, but look at voters.

Number crunchers who underestimate the Dem ground game--especially in the urban centers...

Hoover
11-05-2012, 12:59 PM
Number crunchers who underestimate the Dem ground game--especially in the urban centers...
No, not at all.

Number crunchers who look at what's going on now as well as historical trends.

Mr. Kotter
11-05-2012, 01:01 PM
No, not at all.

Number crunchers who look at what's going on now as well as historical trends.

We'll know in 36 hours who's number crunchers are "right," I guess.

Don't expect me to wish you luck--not this time, at least. :p

Hoover
11-05-2012, 01:03 PM
I may be a Republican, but I'm not the type that gets over invested in a candidate. Life goes on regardless of who wins.

Mr. Kotter
11-05-2012, 01:09 PM
I may be a Republican, but I'm not the type that gets over invested in a candidate. Life goes on regardless of who wins.

Agreed. As much as a Romney win would dissappoint me, it's hardly the end of the friggin' world like Moonbat retards are predicting. Likewise, as unappealing as Obama is, it's hardly the end of the friggin' world as RWNJ talk-radio dittoheads are claiming either. Lesser of two bad choices. Same as it ever is, it seems.

It's entertaining though, at times, watching the shit-storm between the lunatic fringe types. Heh.

VAChief
11-05-2012, 01:12 PM
I may be a Republican, but I'm not the type that gets over invested in a candidate. Life goes on regardless of who wins.

Kudos to you, we could use more who thought of themselves as Americans first and party affiliations second. That goes for both sides of the spectrum no matter how far left or right you may be.

Dave Lane
11-05-2012, 01:56 PM
And you just voted for Obama indirectly helping him which shows you are a young naive ideologue who doesn't get it.:rolleyes: Nothing personal here.

Just hold your nose and vote for Mittens if you are wise.:hmmm:

Better get your post count up while you can

RINGLEADER
11-05-2012, 02:08 PM
No Kerry wasn't. Poll of polls at real clear politics gave Bush the lead by a couple of points.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/bush_vs_kerry.html

Minn is outside the margin for error.

PA has Obama up about 4 - avg all polls.


Was referring to the exit polls that were crowning Kerry president the day of the election. Until everyone realized that the normal party voting trends were wrong and the party ID was not Dem +3 but actually even.

I think if you Google "Bob Shrum tells Kerry he is president" you'll get a fuller angle on that story...

Dave Lane
11-07-2012, 07:26 AM
This shit is hilarious...LMAO

It will not even be close. Obama is finished.

Damn thats a shame alot of liberals thought he had a chance too.

Dave Lane
11-07-2012, 07:32 AM
Says who?

I've been telling you guys that these polls don't pick up voters intensity in rural areas. I know a lot of informed people who believe Romney will win Ohio. And I'm not talking about some talking head or member of the media. I'm talking number crunchers who don't looks at polls, but look at voters.

Oppppsss

|Zach|
11-07-2012, 07:54 AM
This shit is hilarious...LMAO

It will not even be close. Obama is finished.

Mikey's bat shit crazy world he created around him ran into reality yesterday.

Poor guy.