PDA

View Full Version : Economics Sandy's economic damage: 30-50 billion.


Direckshun
11-05-2012, 11:41 AM
Holy balls.

The last paragraph is really this article's money shot. I've bolded it.

http://pragcap.com/gauging-hurricane-sandys-impact-on-the-us-economy

Gauging Hurricane Sandy’s Impact on the US Economy
By Walter Kurtz
11/04/2012 3:52 PM

Estimates of economic damage from Hurricane Sandy are now ranging between $30 – $50bn. This is clearly a large number.

LA Times (http://www.latimes.com/business/money/la-fi-mo-hurricane-sandy-economic-damage-20121101,0,4132136.story): – Estimates of the economic losses caused by Hurricane Sandy earlier this week reached $50 billion as experts assessed the costs of severe property damage, shut-down subways and power outages.

On Thursday, Eqecat Inc. said it expects storm-related losses to fall between $30 billion and $50 billion. Of that, $10 billion to $20 billion will be insured, according to the firm, which calculates estimates for insurers.

Earlier this week, Eqecat had said that damages could reach $20 billion, with up to $10 billion in insured losses.

But as terrible as this event was, in terms of economic damage it is still expected to be considerably below that of Katrina, which adjusted for inflation came in at $145 bn. The question now is: what will be Sandy’s impact on the US economy? Based on historical experiences, the answer is not entirely obvious.

JPMorgan’s recent report attempts to answer it. Their view is that “Hurricane Sandy may initially depress economic activity, then support it over time as rebuilding commences“. In the near-term the hurricane-impacted high frequency data and seasonal adjustments may be off for a couple of months. Longer term however, the impact on the overall economy should be minimal.

The chart below shows the monthly GDP after three major hurricane events. Although we may see some weakness within the first month or two, the economy seems to be stable six months out.

http://pragcap.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/sl1.png

A similar analysis was performed with private sector hours worked as well as retail sales. The results are quite similar, as economic trends seem to pick up a positive trend out to six months from each event.

http://pragcap.com/wp-content/uploads/2012/11/sl2.png

The biggest impact will be on housing, construction, and retail sales (particularly given that unlike during Katrina, major energy infrastructure was not heavily impacted by Sandy). The initial decline in these areas will be followed by a boost in building materials purchases, added construction, and some home sales, as families who lost homes enter the market (although the Northeast typically accounts for a relatively small portion of US housing sales). If historical data is at all representative, by the end of Q1 2013 the US economy should be following the trajectory it would have followed without Sandy – and possibly an even better one.

vailpass
11-05-2012, 01:21 PM
30-50 billion? What a coincidence, that's the same as the average number of words in your posts.

cosmo20002
11-05-2012, 01:28 PM
Holy balls.

The last paragraph is really this article's money shot. I've bolded it.

http://pragcap.com/gauging-hurricane-sandys-impact-on-the-us-economy

Gauging Hurricane Sandy’s Impact on the US Economy
By Walter Kurtz
11/04/2012 3:52 PM

Estimates of economic damage from Hurricane Sandy are now ranging between $30 – $50bn. This is clearly a large number.



So Obama allowed a Category 1 to cause that much damage? At least Katrina was a Cat 3. Pathetic.

/BEP

Dallas Chief
11-05-2012, 03:39 PM
So Obama allowed a Category 1 to cause that much damage? At least Katrina was a Cat 3. Pathetic.

/BEP

Yep. The campaign must go on! The lack of outrage around here at his lack of leadership in this disaster is deafening. Politics first, people second.:shake:

cosmo20002
11-05-2012, 03:51 PM
Yep. The campaign must go on! The lack of outrage around here at his lack of leadership in this disaster is deafening. Politics first, people second.:shake:

Yes, it must. You think it is reasonable that the president would stop a campaign a few days before election day in order to clear debris for a couple months?

That big mouth R governor seemed to think he did a decent enough job.

Brock
11-05-2012, 04:01 PM
dammit obama

patteeu
11-05-2012, 04:05 PM
I thought this was all taken care of. :shrug:

I saw Barack Obama holding back the sea with Chris Christie the other day and assumed they had things under control.

Donger
11-05-2012, 04:08 PM
The lack of hand-wringing that is going on over Obama's response to Sandy is really surprising.

Hoover
11-05-2012, 04:11 PM
Stimulus III

cosmo20002
11-05-2012, 04:15 PM
I thought this was all taken care of. :shrug:

I saw Barack Obama holding back the sea with Chris Christie the other day and assumed they had things under control.

Now that is a strategy that just might have worked.

And if Trump would have just gone outside and told the ocean, "Knock it off!" we could have avoided this whole thing.

BigMeatballDave
11-05-2012, 06:06 PM
Built-in excuse for Obama if he's re-elected.

BigMeatballDave
11-05-2012, 06:07 PM
Why are they calling a cat 1 hurricane a 'Superstorm'?

Donger
11-05-2012, 06:08 PM
Why are they calling a cat 1 hurricane a 'Superstorm'?

Because it hit the NE.

Iowanian
11-05-2012, 06:14 PM
This is all part of Obama's Jobs plan..........

alnorth
11-05-2012, 06:47 PM
The insurance company I work for is collectively holding its breath right now. Thank God we don't do business in New Jersey, but we've got over 30,000 claims so far. No idea how much it'll cost yet, but this might be the first time that reinsurance pays off in a while.

Chocolate Hog
11-05-2012, 06:55 PM
What's Obama's economic damage been?

Dallas Chief
11-05-2012, 07:18 PM
Yes, it must. You think it is reasonable that the president would stop a campaign a few days before election day in order to clear debris for a couple months?

That big mouth R governor seemed to think he did a decent enough job.

Tell that to the good folks of Harlem. Oh that's right he already has 98% of their vote so they don't matter...

cosmo20002
11-05-2012, 08:08 PM
Tell that to the good folks of Harlem. Oh that's right he already has 98% of their vote so they don't matter...

Tell them what? That the president doesn't generally hang out at a disaster scene for days cleaning up debris?

Dallas Chief
11-05-2012, 08:09 PM
Tell them what? That the president doesn't generally hang out at a disaster scene for days cleaning up debris?

That he did a good enough job. What a dense maggot you have been lately.

Brock
11-05-2012, 08:09 PM
Why are they calling a cat 1 hurricane a 'Superstorm'?

30-50 Billion Dollars.

WoodDraw
11-05-2012, 08:11 PM
That level of uninsured losses seems a bit high.

cosmo20002
11-05-2012, 08:13 PM
That he did a good enough job. What a dense maggot you have been lately.

OK, he should have stayed there a week. You're just being stupid.

Dallas Chief
11-05-2012, 08:20 PM
OK, he should have stayed there a week. You're just being stupid.

So so dense...


http://gothamist.com/2012/11/05/video_enraged_rockaway_residents_ge.php

Brock
11-05-2012, 08:22 PM
Tell that to the good folks of Harlem. Oh that's right he already has 98% of their vote so they don't matter...

Not to mention they received about 2 percent of the damage.

Dallas Chief
11-05-2012, 09:00 PM
Not to mention they received about 2 percent of the damage.

That'snot my point! They effing mad yo!!!