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View Full Version : Elections 1980, revisited


alnorth
11-10-2012, 12:08 PM
Just wanted to illustrate the challenging environment the overwhelmingly-white GOP now finds themselves in.

Non-hispanic white vote:

1980 - 89%
1984 - 87%
1988 - 85%
1992 - 87%
1996 - 83%
2000 - 81%
2004 - 77%
2008 - 74%
2012 - 72%

In 1980, Reagan won by 9.7%. I did a little math, if that election had today's demographics by race (72% white, 13% black, 10% hispanic, 2% asian) and by gender (47% men, 53% women instead of 50/50), based on how they voted for reagan and carter back then in the 1980 exit polls, it looks like Reagan would have won the popular vote by only 8-tenths of a percent. (roughly 45.3% to 44.5%, in 1980 3rd party candidates took over 8%)

I was going to do something fancier with a new re-colored map and electoral college vote total, but the exit pollsters back then didnt do by-state exit polling, just national, so the best I can do is national popular vote.

If those minority racial groups voted the way they did this year, Reagan probably would have lost. Carter won fewer hispanics than Obama did, and Reagan won about 11% of black voters back then.

LiveSteam
11-10-2012, 12:38 PM
http://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-snc6/6231_10151096159600773_2142009820_n.jpg

blaise
11-10-2012, 01:00 PM
What about the white-hispanics?

alnorth
11-10-2012, 01:05 PM
Another thing to consider.

The deck doesn't get more stacked against the Democrats than this. Unemployment is almost 8%, we're in the middle of implementing a very unpopular health care law (which is slowly becoming more accepted but still unpopular), and the people trust the other candidate more on creating jobs and the economy, yet....

...the Democrat still won? Are you freaking kidding me? What else do the republicans need to win, the democrat being caught on camera committing a violent felony? What would it have been like in a normal election cycle?

Stewie
11-10-2012, 01:06 PM
This whole "Hispanic" thing cracks me up. They're decedents of Europeans that wiped out two civilizations in Mexico and Central America. Somehow they're heroes in modern day America and it's because???.... they speak Spanish? They're angry, self-centered and tolerated by Dems because they vote Democratic. They're white-folk under the guise of a "race."

Donger
11-10-2012, 01:15 PM
And why do Hispanics vote overwhelmingly for the Democrat candidate?

blaise
11-10-2012, 01:17 PM
Another thing to consider.

The deck doesn't get more stacked against the Democrats than this. Unemployment is almost 8%, we're in the middle of implementing a very unpopular health care law (which is slowly becoming more accepted but still unpopular), and the people trust the other candidate more on creating jobs and the economy, yet....

...the Democrat still won? Are you freaking kidding me? What else do the republicans need to win, the democrat being caught on camera committing a violent felony? What would it have been like in a normal election cycle?

I know liberals keep saying that, but Obama was elected after what was sold as a terrible Presidency and a lot of the blame was put on Bush. The second term was Obama's to be had from the start.
People will be sick of Democrats by 2016 and be looking to elect a Republican. It'll just depend on how polished the two candidates are.

BucEyedPea
11-10-2012, 01:17 PM
How about we just embrace anyone who wants to live here as Americans. Coming here for liberty and more opportunity to make it big? Let go of this hyphenated American or foreign labels.

Personally, I think the average voter voted for divided govt. They were alarmed at at a one party rule did under the Republicans and then the Democrats who they felt went too far. Seems to me this was an invitation to stop the bickering.

J Diddy
11-10-2012, 01:18 PM
This whole "Hispanic" thing cracks me up. They're decedents of Europeans that wiped out two civilizations in Mexico and Central America. Somehow they're heroes in modern day America and it's because???.... they speak Spanish? They're angry, self-centered and tolerated by Dems because they vote Democratic. They're white-folk under the guise of a "race."
I would say the cultural differences is what makes them different.

Stewie
11-10-2012, 01:25 PM
I would say the cultural differences is what makes them different.

Different from whom?

J Diddy
11-10-2012, 01:38 PM
Different from whom?

Culturally you have no differences between someone who lives in Mexico.

True or False

Stewie
11-10-2012, 01:49 PM
Culturally you have no differences between someone who lives in Mexico.

True or False

I don't get this "culture" thing. I'm sure I live my life differently from someone else in the US based on "culture," much less what happens in Mexico. It's not a basis for for a pseudo-race of white people.

cosmo20002
11-10-2012, 01:53 PM
And why do Hispanics vote overwhelmingly for the Democrat candidate?

Probably because much of the anti-immigration rhetoric of the right comes off as mean-spirited and racist to immigrants in general and Hispanics in particular, and the they find it offensive to them.

I'm not saying all right-wing immigration positions ARE racist, but the way they are often presented, could, just maybe, be seen by Hispanics as slightly hostile toward Hispanics in general.

KChiefer
11-10-2012, 01:54 PM
http://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-snc6/6231_10151096159600773_2142009820_n.jpg

That must be great for business in this "terrible" economy.

Stewie
11-10-2012, 01:55 PM
Probably because much of the anti-immigration rhetoric of the right comes off as mean-spirited and racist to immigrants in general and Hispanics in particular, and the they find it offensive to them.

I'm not saying all right-wing immigration positions ARE racist, but the way they are often presented, could, just maybe, be seen by Hispanics as slightly hostile toward Hispanics in general.

JFC! Hispanic is NOT a race!!! They're European decedents and white as white.

cosmo20002
11-10-2012, 01:58 PM
How about we just embrace anyone who wants to live here as Americans. Coming here for liberty and more opportunity to make it big? Let go of this hyphenated American or foreign labels.

Personally, I think the average voter voted for divided govt. They were alarmed at at a one party rule did under the Republicans and then the Democrats who they felt went too far. Seems to me this was an invitation to stop the bickering.

This is valid if you can show how many people voted for Obama and an R House candidate. Since House candidates are voted on in much smaller districts than the president, which is state-wide, people could easliy vote in several R House member, pick Obama as Pres., and not necessarily be for divided govt.

cosmo20002
11-10-2012, 02:03 PM
JFC! Hispanic is NOT a race!!! They're European decedents and white as white.

Oh, get over it. People more recently associated with the lands south of the US border. JFC

Donger
11-10-2012, 02:04 PM
Probably because much of the anti-illegal immigration rhetoric of the right comes off as mean-spirited and racist to immigrants in general and Hispanics in particular, and the they find it offensive to them.

I'm not saying all right-wing immigration positions ARE racist, but the way they are often presented, could, just maybe, be seen by Hispanics as slightly hostile toward Hispanics in general.

I think my addition is required in this discussion.

Stewie
11-10-2012, 02:14 PM
Oh, get over it. People more recently associated with the lands south of the US border. JFC

Huh? They're suddenly a race? They're white people that made bad decisions and their kids eat scraps out of landfills with horrible corruption. No one ever said all white people were smart... especially the decedents from the Iberian peninsula.

Pawnmower
11-10-2012, 02:17 PM
What about the white-hispanics?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/rf/image_296w/WashingtonPost/Content/Blogs/post_now/Images/Neighborhood_Watch_Death_0de6f.jpg?uuid=tiL_znqCEeGFKPeZ33eMQw

Superbowltrashcan
11-10-2012, 02:17 PM
JFC! Hispanic is NOT a race!!! They're European decedents and white as white.

What groups do you consider to be a "race" and what is your rationale for such?

alnorth
11-10-2012, 02:18 PM
Huh? They're suddenly a race? They're white people that made bad decisions and their kids eat scraps out of landfills with horrible corruption. No one ever said all white people were smart... especially the decedents from the Iberian peninsula.

The argument you are making is irrelevant in the context of this thread. Call hispanics whatever you like, but they are an ascendant ethnic group whose political behavior is sharply different from non-hispanic whites.

Donger
11-10-2012, 02:20 PM
I wonder if having Rubio on the ticket instead of Ryan would have made much of a difference?

alnorth
11-10-2012, 02:20 PM
What groups do you consider to be a "race" and what is your rationale for such?

He is technically correct. However, its a useless distinction, kind of like having a heated discussion that the tomato is, in fact, a fruit even though for the sake of cooking they are treated and thought of as a vegetable.

SNR
11-10-2012, 02:21 PM
I thought Martin Sheen was a cracker for years

cdcox
11-10-2012, 02:23 PM
Huh? They're suddenly a race? They're white people that made bad decisions and their kids eat scraps out of landfills with horrible corruption. No one ever said all white people were smart... especially the decedents from the Iberian peninsula.

You are correct, they are not a race, they are an ethnic group. Nevertheless is appears that a) you can easily identify them as a group separate from the group you self-identify with, and b) you make generalizations about the group that indicates you think your group is intrinsically superior to their group.

cosmo20002
11-10-2012, 02:29 PM
I think my addition is required in this discussion.

Doesn't matter. The tone of it is often so hostile they thake it as an insult to Hispanics in general. At least, that what "they" say.

Donger
11-10-2012, 02:32 PM
Doesn't matter. The tone of it is often so hostile they thake it as an insult to Hispanics in general. At least, that what "they" say.

Then I don't really care. If the legal Hispanics (both through immigration and birth) choose not to make the distinction, I don't see what the GOP should do.

kcfanXIII
11-10-2012, 02:33 PM
http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/hispanic?s=t

His·pan·ic   [hi-span-ik]
adjective
1. Spanish.
2. Latin American: the United States and its Hispanic neighbors.


my high school spanish teacher said that anybody whose primary language was spanish was hispanic. since i have no higher authority to consult, other than my high school spanish teacher and dictionary.com, i have to say it is not a race.

Superbowltrashcan
11-10-2012, 02:35 PM
He is technically correct. However, its a useless distinction, kind of like having a heated discussion that the tomato is, in fact, a fruit even though for the sake of cooking they are treated and thought of as a vegetable.
Not get all group huggish about it but in truth there is the human "race" and within that are a variety of subgroupings which often had as their original basis geographic location. Using the term race is an over step. Frankly it doesn't matter semantically speaking. If one party was losing the blonde vote 5-1, you would think there would be work begun to rectify it.

BucEyedPea
11-10-2012, 02:44 PM
This is valid if you can show how many people voted for Obama and an R House candidate. Since House candidates are voted on in much smaller districts than the president, which is state-wide, people could easliy vote in several R House member, pick Obama as Pres., and not necessarily be for divided govt.

That's why Obamacare is not popular. It's about a 49/44 divide at least per exit polls.http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1112/83427.html
Exit polls show 53 percent think the government is doing too many things better left to businesses and individuals - a figure that’s risen 10 points since the 2008 election.
Many voters whom Republicans were counting on didn't show. This shows disgusts at the choices.
So you wind up with 51.2 % to 48.80%. That's a 2.4% lead. That happens when choices disgust.

http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Elections/President/2012/1108/How-Obama-won-in-a-weak-economy-Voters-didn-t-blame-him

cdcox
11-10-2012, 02:45 PM
i have to say it is not a race.

No one considers them to be a race. Stewie keeps pounding his fist over a point that no one disagrees with him on, then acts like if they aren't a race, somehow that fixes the GOP's problem with that ethnic group.

Count Alex's Losses
11-10-2012, 02:48 PM
I know a lot of white conservatives in Texas want to move somewhere where 90 percent white people live.

I'm not racist, but I don't blame them.

alnorth
11-10-2012, 02:49 PM
It could have been worse for the GOP. Hey, at least they aren't in as much trouble as the evangelicals (http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/10/us/politics/christian-conservatives-failed-to-sway-voters.html?hp).

“Millions of American evangelicals are absolutely shocked by not just the presidential election, but by the entire avalanche of results that came in,” R. Albert Mohler Jr., president of the Southern Baptist Theological Seminary, in Louisville, Ky., said in an interview. “It’s not that our message — we think abortion is wrong, we think same-sex marriage is wrong — didn’t get out. It did get out.

“It’s that the entire moral landscape has changed,” he said. “An increasingly secularized America understands our positions, and has rejected them.”

BucEyedPea
11-10-2012, 02:51 PM
No one considers them to be a race. Stewie keeps pounding his fist over a point that no one disagrees with him on, then acts like if they aren't a race, somehow that fixes the GOP's problem with that ethnic group.

So what are they supposed to do then? Promise them goodies to bribe them? Reward some of them for breaking laws?
That puts them between a rock and a hard place. So come up with a solution instead of just complainin'!

cdcox
11-10-2012, 03:04 PM
It could have been worse for the GOP. Hey, at least they aren't in as much trouble as the evangelicals (http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/10/us/politics/christian-conservatives-failed-to-sway-voters.html?hp).

It would be a significant event if the evangelicals were to realize the truth of the fact that they were not going to be able to enforce their moral code through political means, and rationally abandon the cause.

If you remove the anchor of conservative social issues from the GOP, it would turn the entire political landscape of the US upside down and shake it. The GOP would at once be freed from defending those increasingly unwinnable positions and be at risk for losing a large share of their reliable base. A similar effect would occur with the dems since they would lose a lot of their boogie men.

BucEyedPea
11-10-2012, 03:09 PM
The increasing secularization is partly due to the public schools too.

More than just that though:
My brother's kindergarden child came home with a book on global warming, saying I don't want that white guy and Barack Obama, Barack Obama three times in a row. That's because of the UN Agenda 21 funds are being funneled into the govt schools via the SoE. Obama favors the UN agenda.

Production young that will be govt lickspittles.

Stewie
11-10-2012, 03:29 PM
You are correct, they are not a race, they are an ethnic group. Nevertheless is appears that a) you can easily identify them as a group separate from the group you self-identify with, and b) you make generalizations about the group that indicates you think your group is intrinsically superior to their group.

Huh? They're white people! They go overboard to differentiate themselves from other whites. They're no different. They destroyed the Inca and Mayan civilizations through intimidation, illness and Catholicism. Now they want some special designation that's tangential from reality? Bullshit!

BucEyedPea
11-10-2012, 03:31 PM
Huh? They're white people! They go overboard to differentiate themselves from other whites. They're no different. They destroyed the Inca and Mayan civilizations through intimidation, illness and Catholicism. Now they want some special designation that's tangential from reality? Bullshit!

:clap:

alnorth
11-10-2012, 03:45 PM
Huh? They're white people! They go overboard to differentiate themselves from other whites. They're no different. They destroyed the Inca and Mayan civilizations through intimidation, illness and Catholicism. Now they want some special designation that's tangential from reality? Bullshit!

There's a reason for the designation.

Without it, we're left with "huh.... white people's support for Republicans dipped a bit. Thats weird. I dont get it, why did we lose? Oh well, this election is a fluke, no need to change anything"

instead of

"oh God, whites have declined, hispanics have increased, and immigration destroyed us. Well its clear we may need to give that issue up as lost"

La literatura
11-10-2012, 03:46 PM
The increasing secularization is partly due to the public schools too.

More than just that though:
My brother's kindergarden child came home with a book on global warming, saying I don't want that white guy and Barack Obama, Barack Obama three times in a row. That's because of the UN Agenda 21 funds are being funneled into the govt schools via the SoE. Obama favors the UN agenda.

Production young that will be govt lickspittles.

Nobody believes that happened, except you.

Direckshun
11-10-2012, 08:43 PM
I wonder if having Rubio on the ticket instead of Ryan would have made much of a difference?

I think it would have kept more right-wingers at home. Rubio supports the tenets behind the DREAM Act.

Direckshun
11-10-2012, 08:43 PM
Then I don't really care. If the legal Hispanics (both through immigration and birth) choose not to make the distinction, I don't see what the GOP should do.

Moderate.

Direckshun
11-10-2012, 08:45 PM
It would be a significant event if the evangelicals were to realize the truth of the fact that they were not going to be able to enforce their moral code through political means, and rationally abandon the cause.

If you remove the anchor of conservative social issues from the GOP, it would turn the entire political landscape of the US upside down and shake it. The GOP would at once be freed from defending those increasingly unwinnable positions and be at risk for losing a large share of their reliable base. A similar effect would occur with the dems since they would lose a lot of their boogie men.

Very true.

carlos3652
11-10-2012, 09:09 PM
Hispanics are normally pro life, conservative economically and 80% + catholic.

They vote democratic because they are moderates when it comes to social issues. The republicans have ignored them and are leaning way to far right. Plus a lot of them are mexicans trying to get their families here legally and immigration reform and making it harder for them really doesnt help...

carlos3652
11-10-2012, 09:11 PM
It would be a significant event if the evangelicals were to realize the truth of the fact that they were not going to be able to enforce their moral code through political means, and rationally abandon the cause.

If you remove the anchor of conservative social issues from the GOP, it would turn the entire political landscape of the US upside down and shake it. The GOP would at once be freed from defending those increasingly unwinnable positions and be at risk for losing a large share of their reliable base. A similar effect would occur with the dems since they would lose a lot of their boogie men.

Agree completely. Religion has no place in the Gov. Just core values and principles.

Im a christian and feel this way.

J Diddy
11-10-2012, 09:18 PM
Huh? They're white people! They go overboard to differentiate themselves from other whites. They're no different. They destroyed the Inca and Mayan civilizations through intimidation, illness and Catholicism. Now they want some special designation that's tangential from reality? Bullshit!

That is ridiculous. Sure Europeans bred with them, however your statement assumes that the Europeans bred their lineage right out of all of them and that all had relations with Europeans.
I find that very difficult to buy.

carlos3652
11-10-2012, 09:21 PM
That is ridiculous. Sure Europeans bred with them, however your statement assumes that the Europeans bred their lineage right out of all of them and that all had relations with Europeans.
I find that very difficult to buy.

I was born in south america, with grandparents from Spain and Italy...

my race is white. but i am a hispanic :)

J Diddy
11-10-2012, 09:24 PM
I was born in south america, with grandparents from Spain and Italy...

my race is white. but i am a hispanic :)

waiting for it....

what's your point?

carlos3652
11-10-2012, 09:26 PM
waiting for it....

what's your point?

sorry quote the wrong poster, crap... just making a point that hispanics are not a race... my bad jdiddy...

Hoover
11-10-2012, 09:34 PM
all this talk about Latino voters in nonsense.

The latino vote is insignificant in regards to the electoral race between Romney and Obama. Of the Battleground states only Florida, Colorado, and Nevada have significant latino turnout. In every other battleground the latino vote was less than 5%.

If you are the type that believes that the GOP has to deal with the Latino vote, then you also must believe that Obama has a BIG problem with people 65 years and older. Obama got crushed in that demographic. Hell he even lost seniors to Romney in California.

J Diddy
11-10-2012, 09:37 PM
sorry quote the wrong poster, crap... just making a point that hispanics are not a race... my bad jdiddy...


No big deal

alnorth
11-10-2012, 09:55 PM
all this talk about Latino voters in nonsense.

The latino vote is insignificant in regards to the electoral race between Romney and Obama. Of the Battleground states only Florida, Colorado, and Nevada have significant latino turnout. In every other battleground the latino vote was less than 5%.

If you are the type that believes that the GOP has to deal with the Latino vote, then you also must believe that Obama has a BIG problem with people 65 years and older. Obama got crushed in that demographic. Hell he even lost seniors to Romney in California.

Fine, throw out the latinos if you want.

Romney was freaking destroyed by the millennial generation. The young voters of today arent the slackers of Gen X, the millennials out-voted those seniors you are talking about, and they aren't even all eligible to vote yet. The millennials are bigger than the baby boomers, and if they are going to be reliable, progressive voters, then things look really grim in 2016 and 2020.

BucEyedPea
11-10-2012, 09:57 PM
Fine, throw out the latinos if you want.

Romney was freaking destroyed by the millennial generation. The young voters of today arent the slackers of Gen X, the millennials out-voted those seniors you are talking about, and they aren't even all eligible to vote yet. The millennials are bigger than the baby boomers, and if they are going to be reliable, progressive voters, then things look really grim in 2016 and 2020.

Many of those millennial are leaning libertarian—not toward the progressive left. Ron Paul had the youth vote too.

BucEyedPea
11-10-2012, 10:53 PM
Just wait when all these young people who voted for Obama realize that they HAVE to buy health insurance or pay the IRS in a few years. LMAO They'll probably become Republicans or Libertarians ( the one's that aren't already).

cosmo20002
11-10-2012, 11:01 PM
Hispanics are normally pro life, conservative economically and 80% + catholic.

They vote democratic because they are moderates when it comes to social issues. The republicans have ignored them and are leaning way to far right. Plus a lot of them are mexicans trying to get their families here legally and immigration reform and making it harder for them really doesnt help...

I wouldn't say ignore. Being hostile and offensive isn't really ignoring.