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View Full Version : Nat'l Security AP Exclusive: Graph suggests Iran working on bomb


Donger
11-27-2012, 11:33 AM
http://news.yahoo.com/ap-exclusive-graph-suggests-iran-working-bomb-161109665.html

http://l.yimg.com/bt/api/res/1.2/5JhEJILSj9YVctm4jn1R2Q--/YXBwaWQ9eW5ld3M7Y2g9MTc5ODtjcj0xO2N3PTIwMDA7ZHg9MDtkeT0wO2ZpPXVsY3JvcDtoPTQ3MztxPTg1O3c9NTI2/http://media.zenfs.com/en_us/News/ap_webfeeds/76cf479d684d1821220f6a7067002476.jpg

VIENNA (AP) — Iranian scientists have run computer simulations for a nuclear weapon that would produce more than triple the explosive force of the World War II bomb that destroyed Hiroshima, according to a diagram obtained by The Associated Press.

The diagram was leaked by officials from a country critical of Iran's atomic program to bolster their arguments that Iran's nuclear program must be halted before it produces a weapon. The officials provided the diagram only on condition that they and their country not be named.

The International Atomic Energy Agency — the Vienna-based U.N. nuclear watchdog — reported last year that it had obtained diagrams indicating that Iran was calculating the "nuclear explosive yield" of potential weapons. A senior diplomat who is considered neutral on the issue confirmed that the graph obtained by the AP was indeed one of those cited by the IAEA in that report. He spoke only on condition of anonymity because he was not authorized to discuss the issue.

The IAEA report mentioning the diagrams last year did not give details of what they showed. But the diagram seen by the AP shows a bell curve — with variables of time in micro-seconds, and power and energy both in kilotons — the traditional measurement of the energy output, and hence the destructive power of nuclear weapons. The curve peaks at just above 50 kilotons at around 2 microseconds, reflecting the full force of the weapon being modeled.

The bomb that the United States dropped on Hiroshima in Japan during World War II, in comparison, had a force of about 15 kilotons. Modern nuclear weapons have yields hundreds of times higher than that.

The diagram has a caption in Farsi: "Changes in output and in energy released as a function of time through power pulse." The number "5'' is part of the title, suggesting it is part of a series.

David Albright, whose Institute for Science and International Security is used by the U.S. government as a go-to source on Iran's nuclear program, said the diagram looks genuine but seems to be designed more "to understand the process" than as part of a blueprint for an actual weapon in the making.

"The yield is too big," Albright said, noting that North Korea's first tests of a nuclear weapon were only a few kilotons. Because the graph appears to be only one in a series, others might show lower yields, closer to what a test explosion might produce, he said.

The senior diplomat said the diagram was part of a series of Iranian computer-generated models provided to the IAEA by the intelligences services of member nations for use in its investigations of suspicions that Iran is trying to produce a nuclear weapon. Iran denies any interest in such a weapon and has accused the United States and Israel of fabricating evidence that suggests it is trying to build a bomb.

Asked about the project, Iran's chief IAEA delegate, Ali Asghar Soltanieh, said he had not heard of it. IAEA spokeswoman Gill Tudor said the agency had no comment.

Iran has refused to halt uranium enrichment, despite offers of reactor fuel from abroad, saying it is producing nuclear fuel for civilian uses. It has refused for years to cooperate with the U.N. nuclear agency's efforts to investigate its program.

Iran's critics fear it could use the enriched uranium for military purposes. Such concerns grew this month when the IAEA said Iran is poised to double its output of higher-enriched uranium at its fortified underground facility — a development that could put Tehran within months of being able to make the core of a nuclear warhead.

In reporting on the existence of the diagrams last year, the IAEA said it had obtained them from two member nations that it did not identify. Other diplomats have said that Israel and the United States — the countries most concerned about Iran's nuclear program — have supplied the bulk of intelligence being used by the IAEA in its investigation.

"The application of such studies to anything other than a nuclear explosive is unclear to the agency," the IAEA said at the time.

The models were allegedly created in 2008 and 2009 — well after 2003, the year that the United States said Tehran had suspended such work in any meaningful way. That date has been questioned by Britain, France, Germany and Israel, and the IAEA now believes that — while Iran shut down some of its work back then — other tests and experiments continue today.

With both the IAEA probe and international attempts to engage Iran stalled, there are fears that Israel may opt to strike at Tehran's nuclear program. The Jewish state insists it will not tolerate an Iran armed with nuclear arms.

An intelligence summary provided with the drawing linked it to other alleged nuclear weapons work — significant because it would indicate that Iran is working not on isolated experiments, but rather on a single program aimed at mastering all aspects of nuclear arms development.

The IAEA suspects that Iran has conducted live tests of conventional explosives that could be used to detonate a nuclear weapon at Parchin, a sprawling military base southeast of Tehran. The intelligence summary provided to the AP said data gained from those tests fed the model plotted in the diagram. Iran has repeatedly turned down IAEA requests to visit the site, which the agency fears is undergoing a major cleanup meant to eliminate any traces of such experiments.

The intelligence summary named nuclear scientists Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, Majid Shahriari and Fereidoun Abbasi as key players in developing the computer diagrams, adding that Shahriari and Abbasi were also involved in the Parchin testing.

Iran has for years rebuffed IAEA attempts to question Fakhrizadeh for his suspected involvement in secret programs. Shahriari was assassinated in 2010 by what Iran says were Israeli agents. Abbasi, now the head of Iran's nuclear agency, was wounded in a separate assassination attempt the same day that Shahriari was killed.

The senior diplomat, who is familiar with the Iran probe, said the agency has not yet determined any connection between Parchin and the computer models. But Olli Heinonen, who headed the IAEA's Iran investigation until 2010, said using the results of the alleged Parchin tests would "make sense as part of the design and testing of a (computer) model."

theelusiveeightrop
11-27-2012, 11:37 AM
Not even Iran is stupid enough to USE a nuclear weapon. They will use the THREAT of nuclear weapons to extort what they desire from the U.S, Israel, and the rest of the world.

Direckshun
11-27-2012, 11:40 AM
Pretty amazing they were able to obtain that. Pretty fascinating.

I don't think anybody's seriously admitted to believing that Iran's not working on a bomb. But this is still very, very interesting.

Direckshun
11-27-2012, 11:41 AM
Even Iran is stupid enough to USE a nuclear weapon. They will use the THREAT of nuclear weapons to extort what they desire from the U.S, Israel, and the rest of the world.

I've long maintained that Iran wouldn't dream of using the bomb even if they had one.

They would, however, weild more power at the negotiating table across the Middle East.

Donger
11-27-2012, 11:49 AM
Pretty amazing they were able to obtain that. Pretty fascinating.

I don't think anybody's seriously admitted to believing that Iran's not working on a bomb. But this is still very, very interesting.

And in 3

2

1

Donger
11-27-2012, 11:50 AM
I've long maintained that Iran wouldn't dream of using the bomb even if they had one.

They would, however, weild more power at the negotiating table across the Middle East.

Not to mention that the Kingdom would very quickly develop their own physics package.

BucEyedPea
11-27-2012, 01:09 PM
I've long maintained that Iran wouldn't dream of using the bomb even if they had one.

They would, however, weild more power at the negotiating table across the Middle East.

I agree with you here.

ForeverChiefs58
11-27-2012, 01:14 PM
I've long maintained that Iran wouldn't dream of using the bomb even if they had one.

They would, however, weild more power at the negotiating table across the Middle East.


They wouldn't even hesitate passing it to Hamas or some other crazy extremists

BucEyedPea
11-27-2012, 01:32 PM
This reports smacks of some NeoCon/Likud plant on the newswires to me.

tiptap
11-27-2012, 01:41 PM
Let the Kingdom get a bomb too. I don't see how you spend billions of dollars and then hand off your bomb to Hamas. Yeah that makes sense. Pakistan is much more likely to be source of nuclear attack than Iran. Yes this is a NeoCon argument. And we are becoming fossil fuel independent. Let China and India deal with it.

durtyrute
11-27-2012, 02:03 PM
We have over 140 bases around the world, shouldn't people be more afraid of us?

mikey23545
11-27-2012, 02:12 PM
This reports smacks of some NeoCon/Likud plant on the newswires to me.


The diagram was found in the mailbags that all those military ballots were in.

BucEyedPea
11-27-2012, 04:47 PM
The journalist who reported this has a reputation for speculative and misleading coverage of Iran's nuclear program.

So the source is biased.
The diagram was leaked by officials from a country critical of Iran’s atomic program to bolster their arguments that Iran’s nuclear program must be halted before it produces a weapon,” reports George Jahn. “The officials provided the diagram only on condition that they and their country not be named.”


The diagram is proof of nothing except that Iranian nuclear scientists may be doing nuclear work and possess knowledge of the processes.

David Albright, of the Institute for Science and International Security, told Jahn “the diagram looks genuine but seems to be designed more ‘to understand the process’ than as part of a blueprint for an actual weapon in the making.”

That piece of the report, while included, is buried within the article and virtually invisible given the vastly greater emphasis Jahn puts on speculating that this diagram suggests Iran is working on a bomb.


http://news.antiwar.com/2012/11/27/ap-presents-shoddy-evidence-from-dubious-sources-as-proof-of-iranian-weapons-program/

Detoxing
11-27-2012, 04:49 PM
I'll need to see the long form please. k thx by

BucEyedPea
11-27-2012, 04:50 PM
In fact, “senior Obama administration officials,” reported the Wall Street Journal recently, “say the 2007 National Intelligence Estimate” which found Iran had dismantled its weapons program in 2003 and had not restarted it, “remains accurate.”

Indeed, experts from across the spectrum have agreed with the military and intelligence consensus that Iran has no nuclear weapons program and presents no imminent threat.

An expanded program has helped put Iran within a realm of technical capability and know-how to develop a weapon quicker for deterrent purposes if it ever decides to do so – like, in the event of a unilateral US or Israeli attack. Both Washington and Tel Aviv have officially admitted this decision has not yet been made.

The IAEA and Israeli officials have openly acknowledged in recent weeks that Iran has been diverting significant portions of its enriched uranium for use in medical research for cancer treatment, a process that is irreversible and demonstrates Iran’s credibility in its consistent statements that its enrichment of uranium is not for weapons but for peaceful purposes.

The real concern:
The debate about a nuclear threat from Iran is mostly fabricated. Western leaders don’t much care about weapons proliferation per se: the real concern, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak says, is allowing Iran to enter a “zone of immunity” wherein it can deter attack or invasion. The US and Israel, according to this thinking, must be able to bomb Iran without concern for retaliation.

|Zach|
11-27-2012, 04:54 PM
The diagram was found in the mailbags that all those military ballots were in.

Of the election that wasn't even going to be close because Romney was going to win...

Donger
11-27-2012, 04:55 PM
The diagram is proof of nothing except that Iranian nuclear scientists may be doing physics package work and possess knowledge of the processes.

Yes, that's entirely accurate.

BucEyedPea
11-27-2012, 04:55 PM
The diagram was found in the mailbags that all those military ballots were in.

No, it was probably taken from the same envelope, file or package that the Nigerian yellocake forgeries were in.

Fish
11-27-2012, 06:02 PM
Let the Kingdom get a bomb too. I don't see how you spend billions of dollars and then hand off your bomb to Hamas. Yeah that makes sense. Pakistan is much more likely to be source of nuclear attack than Iran. Yes this is a NeoCon argument. And we are becoming fossil fuel independent. Let China and India deal with it.

I like this idea. Let's sit on our dicks for this one, instead of waving it around like usual. If anything, it will be great motivation for the US to increase production..

cdcox
11-27-2012, 08:38 PM
Just because they have run simulations doesn't mean they have any interest in building a bomb. They could be running simulations to satisfy their intellectual curiosity.

Donger
11-27-2012, 08:51 PM
Just because they have run simulations doesn't mean they have any interest in building a bomb.

The speculation is that they've also carried out actual detonations tests at Parchin in the chamber there. Of course, the Iranians have sanitized that site now and won't allow access to IAEA.

They could be running simulations to satisfy their intellectual curiosity.

Sure, and it wouldn't be a concern except for the above and the fact that they've enriched to 20% well beyond what they need for their medical reactor.

Start Croyle
11-27-2012, 08:53 PM
It looks like a diagram from a college textbook

Dayze
11-27-2012, 09:02 PM
I'll need to see the long form please. k thx by

LMAO

Dayze
11-27-2012, 09:03 PM
i thought that graph represented Chiefs fans' hope from the end of one season, through the draft, and through the rest of the subsequent season.

mikey23545
11-28-2012, 01:17 AM
Of the election that wasn't even going to be close because Romney was going to win...

Yep, I was completely wrong. I knew this nation would reach the tipping point eventually, but I really thought virtuous people who believe in hard work and self-responsibility could hold on a while longer than we did.

I guess little soccer gays like you now rule the world.

|Zach|
11-28-2012, 01:19 AM
Yep, I was completely wrong. I knew this nation would reach the tipping point eventually, but I really thought virtuous people could hold on a while longer than we did.

I guess little soccer gays like you now rule the world.

Aww your bullshit paranoid conservative bubble got popped and now you are having trouble dealing with reality.

You should probably get more tinfoil and bury yourself deeper underground while the country keeps on turning just fine.

mikey23545
11-28-2012, 01:20 AM
Sorry about the typo in the first post - should say "soccer guys", of course.

mikey23545
11-28-2012, 01:21 AM
Aww your bullshit paranoid conservative bubble got popped and now you are having trouble dealing with reality.

You should probably get more tinfoil and bury yourself deeper underground while the country keeps on turning just fine.

Ahh, I'm sorry. I didn't mean to get under your skin, Euroboy.

|Zach|
11-28-2012, 01:24 AM
Ahh, I'm sorry. I didn't mean to get under your skin, Euroboy.

No, this is a joy. Really...it has been so fun watching you fringe right know nothings try and deal with reality.

You guys built this fake world for yourselves and it came crashing down.

mikey23545
11-28-2012, 01:26 AM
No, this is a joy. Really...it has been so fun watching you fringe right know nothings try and deal with reality.

You guys built this fake world for yourselves and it came crashing down.

Poor little guy. I guess stalking me and trying to guess what I think probably is the only joy you have...Hang in there, puppy-boy.

BWillie
11-28-2012, 01:33 AM
Don't fund, give weapons, and support Israel and then you don't need to care whether or not Iran has nuclear weapons.

ForeverChiefs58
11-28-2012, 07:10 AM
Don't fund, give weapons, and support Israel and then you don't need to care whether or not Iran has nuclear weapons.

We could have just let Germany finish the job, right? Because that makes just as much sense and is just as stupid. I'm not sure if you meant it like that.


Because we should support people with our same ideals and values. We shouldn't support people who strap bombs on children and teach them to go to a crowded area so they can kill more innocents.

Do you think even though they will try to wipe out Israel, they'll still love them some western infidels?

Your answer suggests Israel is the problem. The islamic extremists are clearly the main problem everywhere around the globe, and I would hope anyone would be able to see that.


If you want to bitch about money, then please bring up our largest recipient of aid...Egypt. We give billions to the terrorists MB who were outlawed in their country a few years ago for their extremist. They are supporters of the very terrorists organizations we are trying to punish. We also give to the palestinian authority while they seek and encourage random innocent deaths.

There are around 50 muslim countries, many we are giving huge sums of money. No one brings that up. We give support to the jews though, and smart people like Bwillie think that should be the focus of the problem.

It is different if you don't think we should give to any country. I personally don't think we should give to anyone in a bad economy, let alone someone who isn't a really strong ally. If your people burn our flag and chant "death to America", then you don't qualify.

patteeu
11-28-2012, 07:55 AM
Just because they have run simulations doesn't mean they have any interest in building a bomb. They could be running simulations to satisfy their intellectual curiosity.

Sure. They could have also been doing research for a science fiction book they plan to write.

Do you believe that Iran is pursuing a nuclear weapon capability?

Donger
11-28-2012, 08:20 AM
Don't fund, give weapons, and support Israel and then you don't need to care whether or not Iran has nuclear weapons.

Israel is just part of the picture for me. A nuclear-armed Iran raises concerns way beyond just Israel.

BucEyedPea
11-28-2012, 09:32 AM
Israel is just part of the picture for me. A nuclear-armed Iran raises concerns way beyond just Israel.

Is this because you won't be able to support our invading another country that can't defend itself?

Donger
11-28-2012, 09:42 AM
Is this because you won't be able to support our invading another country that can't defend itself?

Huh?

tiptap
11-28-2012, 02:16 PM
The speculation is that they've also carried out actual detonations tests at Parchin in the chamber there. Of course, the Iranians have sanitized that site now and won't allow access to IAEA.



Sure, and it wouldn't be a concern except for the above and the fact that they've enriched to 20% well beyond what they need for their medical reactor.


So they are further along than that teenager here in the US got. It isn't hard to throw a slow neutron source into a Uranium Arrangement and detonate it. It has always been the refinement of fissionable Uranium. We didn't even test the Uranium bomb in WW 2 before use. It was that simple. After all the original work was done under Northwestern University in the 30's.

Donger
11-28-2012, 02:21 PM
So they are further along than that teenager here in the US got. It isn't hard to throw a slow neutron source into a Uranium Arrangement and detonate it. It has always been the refinement of fissionable Uranium. We didn't even test the Uranium bomb in WW 2 before use. It was that simple. After all the original work was done under Northwestern University in the 30's.

Sorry, but I'm missing the point(s) you are trying to make here.

tiptap
11-28-2012, 04:02 PM
That you find only one point in this is no point at all.