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View Full Version : Economics Unemployment Falls to 7.7%


Direckshun
12-07-2012, 08:14 AM
I'm surprised, I was hearing it was going to be much lower, that the fourth quarter was generally stagnant, and that 2013 is supposed to be another tough year, economically.

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2012/12/november-employment-report-146000-jobs.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CalculatedRisk+%28Calculated+Risk%29&utm_content=Google+Reader

November Employment Report: 146,000 Jobs, 7.7% Unemployment Rate
by Bill McBride
on 12/07/2012 08:30:00 AM

From the BLS (http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm):

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 146,000 in November, and the unemployment rate edged down to 7.7 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. ...

Hurricane Sandy made landfall on the Northeast coast on October 29th, causing severe damage in some states. Nevertheless, our survey response rates in the affected states were within normal ranges. Our analysis suggests that Hurricane Sandy did not substantively impact the national employment and unemployment estimates for November. ...

The change in total nonfarm payroll employment for September was revised from +148,000 to +132,000, and the change for October was revised from +171,000 to +138,000.

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-sBw5DpD-wlo/UMHxqura0UI/AAAAAAAAWuA/Y_vhOsmnjq8/s1600/EmployNov2012.jpg

There was uncertainty about this report because of Hurricane Sandy.

The headline number was above expectations of 80,000, but both September and October payroll growth was revised down.

The second graph shows the unemployment rate. The unemployment rate declined to 7.7%.

The unemployment rate is from the household report.

The unemployment rate declined because of lower participation (a decline in the civilian labor force).

The third graph shows the employment population ratio and the participation rate.

The Labor Force Participation Rate decreased to 63.6% in November (blue line. This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force.

The participation rate is well below the 66% to 67% rate that was normal over the last 20 years, although most of the recent decline is due to demographics.

The Employment-Population ratio decreased to 58.7% in November (black line). I'll post the 25 to 54 age group employment-population ratio graph later.

The fourth graph shows the job losses from the start of the employment recession, in percentage terms, compared to previous post WWII recessions. The dotted line is ex-Census hiring.

This shows the depth of the recent employment recession - worse than any other post-war recession - and the relatively slow recovery due to the lingering effects of the housing bust and financial crisis.

With all the uncertainty about the impact of Hurricane Sandy, this was a decent report, especially with the decline in the unemployment rate. However, negatives include the downward revisions to prior months, and the decline in the participation rate.

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-EFVSUUocI8U/UMHxrFKvhvI/AAAAAAAAWuM/nCnIaiXhBPQ/s1600/UnemployRateNov2012.jpg

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-QMkesx89oOc/UMHxrkD0SCI/AAAAAAAAWuY/QOS5XRvofPg/s1600/EmployPopNov2012.jpg

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-6sUgkVSS8ng/UMHxsXMncRI/AAAAAAAAWuk/bfG5HRrlxRo/s1600/EmployRecNov2012.jpg

FD
12-07-2012, 08:25 AM
Given the difficulties associated with seasonal hiring (early thanksgiving), hurricane Sandy, and the fiscal cliff, I would take this months jobs report with a big grain of salt.

FD
12-07-2012, 08:31 AM
November jobs report: A good number — with tons of caveats
By Brad Plumer , Updated: December 7, 2012

Let’s start with the good news: The U.S. economy added 146,000 jobs in November, far more than expected. And the unemployment rate dipped to 7.7 percent, the lowest level since the financial crisis kicked off in 2008.

Yet the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ November jobs report isn’t all unalloyed positives. Let’s take a look at a few caveats:

1) Hurricane Sandy may still be affecting the job market. The BLS report says that the hurricane didn’t affect its ability to collect data last month, as many forecasters had worried. “Our survey response rates in the affected states were within normal range.”

Yet the storm still affected actual employment levels. About a million workers said they were working part time rather than full time because of “bad weather.” And the economy lost 20,000 construction jobs. In theory, those jobs should come back as post-hurricane rebuilding gets underway. But it makes the underlying trend more difficult to pick out.

2) Bad news: jobs numbers from past months got revised downward. Last month’s jobs report suggested that the economy had added 148,000 jobs in September and 171,000 jobs in October. That’s been revised down to 132,000 and 138,000, respectively.

That means there were 49,000 fewer jobs in the past two months than we thought. Not great.

3) Last month’s increase in the participation rate has been wiped out. More Americans appear to be giving up looking for work and dropping out of the labor force. The participation rate dropped from 63.8 percent to 63.6 percent — essentially erasing last month’s gains. That caused the unemployment rate to plunge (since the official unemployment rate only looks at those who are actively seeking work), but it’s not a good sign for the actual economy.

That said, as economist Justin Wolfers points out, the broader trends are encouraging — unemployment has fallen since January mainly because the economy has added jobs, not because people are giving up looking. So this month may just be a blip.

4) The United States is still on a sluggish path to recovery. For the past three months, the U.S. economy has added an average of 139,000 jobs per month. At this rate, we won’t get back to full employment until…. well, at least a decade. Maybe more. And it will be a long time before we start seeing improvements for the 4.8 million long-term unemployed — those Americans who have been out of work for at least half a year and who typically have the toughest time finding jobs.

5) As always, this jobs report is probably wrong. These monthly payroll numbers always come with a margin of error of +/- 100,000. September and October’s numbers have been revised heavily. Keep that in mind.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog/wp/2012/12/07/november-jobs-report-a-good-number-with-tons-of-caveats/?print=1

durtyrute
12-07-2012, 08:55 AM
How can the unemployment rate be calculated accurately if not everyone is filing for it?

petegz28
12-07-2012, 09:09 AM
it's a hollow 7.7%. The work force pool is the smallest it has been since 1982.

jiveturkey
12-07-2012, 09:11 AM
it's a false 7.7%. The work force pool is the smallest it has been since 1982.

Isn't part of that due to retirees? There are a shit ton of boomers leaving the workforce every month. It's something like 10k per day.

petegz28
12-07-2012, 09:55 AM
Isn't part of that due to retirees? There are a shit ton of boomers leaving the workforce every month. It's something like 10k per day.

Maybe some but not the majority. I guess if you wanted to cross reference the number of new SS claims vs. the number of people dropping out of the workforce you would have a better idea. And I do believe a lot of these are people who were in unemployment and are not on it any longer though they do not have a job.

petegz28
12-07-2012, 10:01 AM
73% of New Jobs Created in Last 5 Months Are in Government

http://cnsnews.com/news/article/73-new-jobs-created-last-5-months-are-government

Taco John
12-07-2012, 10:17 AM
I wonder what the real number is. I find it funny that anyone would bother reporting the ginned up number.

BigCatDaddy
12-07-2012, 10:26 AM
I wonder what the real number is. I find it funny that anyone would bother reporting the ginned up number.
.

KCWolfman
12-07-2012, 10:50 AM
And economists noted that the unemployment rate would have risen if more people hadn't stopped looking for work. Once people without jobs stop looking for one, they're no longer counted as unemployed.

Taco John
12-07-2012, 11:05 AM
And economists noted that the unemployment rate would have risen if more people hadn't stopped looking for work. Once people without jobs stop looking for one, they're no longer counted as unemployed.

I'm pretty sure at that point, they officially become "Democrats."

BucEyedPea
12-07-2012, 11:08 AM
Govt stats are frequently manipulated. Unemployment is not figured the same as it once was in the past, such as during the Great Depression. Shadow stats has shown the numbers have been higher throughout this depression.

vailpass
12-07-2012, 11:08 AM
Disinformation is fun!!!

Garcia Bronco
12-07-2012, 11:11 AM
6 percent is average

BucEyedPea
12-07-2012, 11:36 AM
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts

theelusiveeightrop
12-07-2012, 11:37 AM
Fancy graphs make the author of the article correct. Well done.

alpha_omega
12-07-2012, 11:46 AM
Whew...glad we had all those awesome graphs to clear it up.

Chief Henry
12-07-2012, 12:00 PM
To think, on January 3rd 2007 the unemployment rate was DOWN to 4.60% after the Bush TAX CUTS had stimulated the economy after the 9-11 caused recession...... AND we just completed a RECORD of 52 consecutive months of PRIVATE employers job growth thanks to the stimulous of the Bush tax Cuts....then what what happened ?

mlyonsd
12-07-2012, 12:32 PM
So is this officially Obama's economy now or are we not out of the woods far enough to grow some balls yet?

petegz28
12-07-2012, 12:44 PM
93 out of 100 people have a job = 7% unemployment

93 out of 97 people have a job = 4.2% unemployment


So as long as more people quit trying to get a job then Obama will get us squared away!

LiveSteam
12-07-2012, 12:48 PM
Whipdy fucking do

Stewie
12-07-2012, 12:50 PM
Lie, lie, lie... and finally they'll believe it.

blaise
12-07-2012, 02:06 PM
Good news Obama
Bad news Bush

ROYC75
12-07-2012, 10:01 PM
I'm pretty sure at that point, they officially become "Democrats."

ROFL ROFL ROFL

:clap: Nice one.

Bewbies
12-08-2012, 12:11 PM
Poor Obama, look at the mess he is going to inherit in January.....

cosmo20002
12-08-2012, 09:13 PM
Poor Obama, look at the mess he is going to inherit in January.....

A falling unemployment rate? A hell of a lot better situation than he inherited the first time.

Ugly Duck
12-09-2012, 02:32 AM
If we could just get them gubmint public sector jobs back, the rate would be looking good. Oh sure, Obama has been fine with private sector jobs.... I only wish he was as marxist socialist communist big-government as RWNJs claim he is. But, as usual, they are just wrong once again..... (note the upswing begins at the Obama's stimulus)

http://www.americanprogress.org/wp-content/uploads/issues/2012/05/img/private_sector_jobs_chart1.jpg

Here we see another effect of Obama's stimulus:

http://s3.amazonaws.com/dk-production/images/7963/large/AmericanDebt757012Economist.png?1349882583

mikey23545
12-09-2012, 06:00 AM
If it falls another 3% it will be down around what it was under Bush!

:usa:

RedNeckRaider
12-09-2012, 06:17 AM
A falling unemployment rate? A hell of a lot better situation than he inherited the first time.

Did Mitt fuck you wife? I have never seen anyone care so much about a losing candidate :spock:

BucEyedPea
12-10-2012, 03:36 PM
A falling unemployment rate? A hell of a lot better situation than he inherited the first time.


Unemployment rate is really 22.9%


A government that wants to cut the social safety net doesn’t want you to know that the unemployment rate is 22.9%.

Statistician John Williams (shadowstats.com) calls the government’s latest jobs and unemployment reports “nonsense numbers.

The U.S. government simply lowers the unemployment rate by not counting all of the unemployed. We owe this innovation to the Clinton administration. In 1994 the Clinton administration redefined “discouraged workers” and limited this group to those who are discouraged for less than one year. Those discouraged for more than one year are no longer considered to be in the labor force and ceased to be counted as unemployed.

If the U.S. government will mislead the public about unemployment, it will also
mislead about Syria, Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, Libya, Somalia, Pakistan, Yemen, Lebanon, Palestine, Russia, China, and 9/11. The government fits its story to its agenda.


If the “free and democratic” Americans cannot even find out what the unemployment rate is, how do they expect to find out about anything?

http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/

patteeu
12-10-2012, 03:49 PM
A falling unemployment rate? A hell of a lot better situation than he inherited the first time.

A hell of a lot worse than he should have inherited this time. And far worse than his economic team told us to expect.

RedNeckRaider
12-10-2012, 03:53 PM
A hell of a lot worse than he should have inherited this time. And far worse than his economic team told us to expect.

Subtract the cook the books math and this is a number the left should hope did not come up~

KC native
12-10-2012, 06:19 PM
Heh the usual dumbasses are in here acting like they know something about how the unemployment rate is figured.

KC native
12-10-2012, 08:04 PM
Unemployment rate is really 22.9%











http://www.paulcraigroberts.org/

No it isn't. John Williams does good work but he overestimates unemployment. The government underestimates it.

The real number is in between (closer to the government's number though).

Also, and not surprising that you didn't know this, the government still counts discouraged workers. It's U6 and it's not the government's fault the media only reports U3.

KC native
12-10-2012, 08:07 PM
Subtract the cook the books math and this is a number the left should hope did not come up~

ROFL at the fact you think you have an informed opinion on this subject.