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duncan_idaho
12-11-2012, 08:59 AM
Proposed 2013 Slogan: Tigers: They're what's for dinner
Actual 2013 Slogan: Come to Play
A better, more accurate, or alternative slogan: All in, no panic, we promise.

Dayton Moore has pushed all his chips in and is riding on King/Jack suited, hoping it comes together, he gets some good luck, and he hits the nuts by the river card. There's potential, oh yes, there's potential. There's also risk.

At the midway point, Dayton is left counting on the river card. The flop and turn didn't help him, and he's looking at the Tigers holding a pair of Queens and the Indians holding a pair of 9s. His 2013 plan hasn't failed - yet - but the odds are not in his favor.

Burning questions updates below.

Burning Questions for 2013:

1) Will the improve rotation be improved enough? Does James Shields pitch like a fringe No. 1 away from Tampa Bay? Does Ervin Santana pitch to his highest upside in his walk year? Can Jeremy Guthrie build on his strong performance as a Royal in 2012? Can Wade Davis bring his new mentality- and velocity - back to the rotation?

Midseason check-in: Yes, the rotation is certainly improved enough. Shields has pitched like a fringe No. 1 and Santana is having his best season. Guthrie has horrible peripherals but has continued to perform well at his home park and eat innings on the road. Davis brought neither his kick-ass mentality or improved velocity back to the rotation and is in Luke Hochevar/Hiram Davies territory.

2) When will Luke Hochevar be shown the door?
Midseason check-in: It appears, never, at this point. Hochevar has been solid in non-leverage situations, though pretty much every time he has been used with men on base in an inning, it has been a disaster.

3) Does Hosmer bounce back?
Midseason check-in: It took some time, but Hosmer's performance from June 1 on is probably the most encouraging thing about the 2013 season so far.
4) Can Moustakas hit for a whole season like he did in the first half of 2012?
Midseason check-in: Nope. Moustakas was god-awful, then great for about 3 weeks, then god-awful again. He has been better since he started working with Brett and Grafol but still has a long way to go.
5) Who regresses?
Midseason check-in: Welp, Alicides Escobar is not a surprising name here (though Yost's stubborn insistence on hitting him second is ridiculous). Billy Butler is a surprise. He isn't having a terrible year - still contributing a lot to the offense - but he's not hitting for the average or power he has displayed over the past several years.
6) Who plays 2B?
Midseason check-in: A whole bunch of people, and not that great. Gio is at least getting a shot, though he once again is not doing much with it.
7) Can Jeff Francoeur be at least replacement level, rather than epic horrible level?
Midseason check-in: Hahahahahahahahahahaha
8) Will Dayton Moore survive to see 2014?
Midseason check-in: Outlook uncertain. Probably still around, unless the team completely tanks in the second half and he does something foolish. My guess - he sacrifices Ned Yost this offseason and gets one more shot with a new manager in 2014.
9) Will Danny Duffy come back healthy? And if he does, is he the same, better or worse?
Midseason check-in: Yes. Velocity looks the same, and it looks likely he is the same guy as before.
10) And the big one: Has KC added enough to run down the big-money Detroit Tigers?
Midseason check-in: Doesn't look like it, does it?

dpg4zombie
12-11-2012, 09:01 AM
Let's do this thing.

Pablo
12-11-2012, 09:05 AM
In.

duncan_idaho
12-11-2012, 09:06 AM
As promised, here's news that's guaranteed to put the Wil Myers trade in some interesting perspective (or at least it did for me). I present to you... a comparison of seasons that led to the player being named minor league player of the year.

STAT PLAYER A MYERS
Average: .319 .314
HR: 27 37
** (Player A has higher power grade. Myers has more HR-friendly park)**
SLG: .587 .600
OBP: .375 .387
Ks: 135 140
K rate: 25.9% 26.8%

Who is player A? He looks an awful lot like Wil Myers, doesn't he?

Canofbier
12-11-2012, 09:06 AM
go royils

ChiTown
12-11-2012, 09:06 AM
http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-8AtG5qOdr5Q/TZzcIujKZGI/AAAAAAAAAjs/WNBTxMsvuBY/s1600/dayton+moore+sad.jpg

Ceej
12-11-2012, 09:08 AM
HELL YES, BITCHES.






...I'm still mildly depressed.

ChiTown
12-11-2012, 09:08 AM
http://www2.pictures.zimbio.com/gi/Dayton+Moore+ouStUX4u8Sbm.jpg

Canofbier
12-11-2012, 09:08 AM
For real though, I'm pretty exited. This season is the point where we either sink or swim. Looking forward to seeing which!

CaliforniaChief
12-11-2012, 09:10 AM
Let's do this.

Codered
12-11-2012, 09:11 AM
I don't know if I "like" the trade, but I've accepted it and moved on. James Shields is the best pitcher we have had outside of Zach Grienke in a long time. If Guthrie can continue to pitch above average and the other spots at least show up better then the garbage in the past then I think we will hit enough to atleast contend.

Before Shields even with Will Myers I wouldn't have been able to say that. However, I still can't shake the feeling that this is the Royals and everything we touch goes bad for us.

kc rush
12-11-2012, 09:11 AM
The trade is what it is, lets see how this all works out.

Reaper16
12-11-2012, 09:12 AM
As promised, here's news that's guaranteed to put the Wil Myers trade in some interesting perspective (or at least it did for me). I present to you... a comparison of seasons that led to the player being named minor league player of the year.

STAT PLAYER A MYERS
Average: .319 .314
HR: 27 37
** (Player A has higher power grade. Myers has more HR-friendly park)**
SLG: .587 .600
OBP: .375 .387
Ks: 135 140
K rate: 25.9% 26.8%

Who is player A? He looks an awful lot like Wil Myers, doesn't he?

I don't know, but I'm guessing its either Delmon Young or Alex Gordon.

ChiTown
12-11-2012, 09:14 AM
I don't know if I "like" the trade, but I've accepted it and moved on. James Shields is the best pitcher we have had outside of Zach Grienke in a long time. If Guthrie can continue to pitch above average and the other spots at least show up better then the garbage in the past then I think we will hit enough to atleast contend.

Before Shields even with Will Myers I wouldn't have been able to say that. However, I still can't shake the feeling that this is the Royals and everything we touch goes bad for us.

Yep, I'm definitely in the acceptance phase of that deal. I'm just miffed that we have NO ONE worth a shit to play RF, unless Dyson enters the everyday lineup in CF and pushes Cain to RF.

jbwm89
12-11-2012, 09:14 AM
Well done Duncan

CaliforniaChief
12-11-2012, 09:17 AM
Sunday night, I was pretty pissed. No, really pissed. But the more it settles, the more I like it for the following reasons:

1. Pitching is king in baseball. Bottom line. Without good starting pitching, you can't go anywhere as a team. Particularly in the playoffs, teams with pitching always prevail. Think about our 1985 team. Think about the Giants this year. Wasn't Gregor Blanco playing in the outfield? Pitching.

2. Shields is a baller, and he wants to be here. I'll LOVE it if we can extend his contract, but he seems happy to be in KC and ready to embrace the challenge of being a #1. And could it be that KC isn't viewed as a wasteland it used to be?

3. We still have a really good farm system. It isn't like we leveraged the whole thing to get Shields/Davis.

4. We're spending money. Not sure it's all being spent wisely, but that's on DM. At least we're spending.

Chief_For_Life58
12-11-2012, 09:20 AM
Yep, I'm definitely in the acceptance phase of that deal. I'm just miffed that we have NO ONE worth a shit to play RF, unless Dyson enters the everyday lineup in CF and pushes Cain to RF.

we really need lorenzo to step up and not be an injured little bitch the whole year

KC_Connection
12-11-2012, 09:20 AM
As promised, here's news that's guaranteed to put the Wil Myers trade in some interesting perspective (or at least it did for me). I present to you... a comparison of seasons that led to the player being named minor league player of the year.

STAT PLAYER A MYERS
Average: .319 .314
HR: 27 37
** (Player A has higher power grade. Myers has more HR-friendly park)**
SLG: .587 .600
OBP: .375 .387
Ks: 135 140
K rate: 25.9% 26.8%

Who is player A? He looks an awful lot like Wil Myers, doesn't he?
I'll guess Jay Bruce. Travis Snider's minor league line would have been pretty close to that too, but you said MILB player of the year.

siberian khatru
12-11-2012, 09:22 AM
I've decided the trade bothers me less than some of the reasons that led to it.

For instance, I'm far more pissed that we waste money tendering Luke Hochevar a $4+ million contract, or sign Yuni Betancourt (and then release him, not because he's godawful, but only because he "wasn't accepting his utility role"), or play Jeff Francoeur into the ground despite the fact he's the worst player in baseball.

If David Glass insists on low payrolls, then Dayton Moore isn't the guy who's getting the most bang for the buck.

So I'd be more comfortable trading a chip like Myers in a "go for it" move if I had more confidence that Moore wouldn't undermine it by embracing shit players and overpaying them.

Toadkiller
12-11-2012, 09:24 AM
Damn it. One more year, that is all I am giving them, ok maybe two but that is it..

Been a long time since I was in the stands at the K watching a world series.

Chief_For_Life58
12-11-2012, 09:25 AM
As promised, here's news that's guaranteed to put the Wil Myers trade in some interesting perspective (or at least it did for me). I present to you... a comparison of seasons that led to the player being named minor league player of the year.

STAT PLAYER A MYERS
Average: .319 .314
HR: 27 37
** (Player A has higher power grade. Myers has more HR-friendly park)**
SLG: .587 .600
OBP: .375 .387
Ks: 135 140
K rate: 25.9% 26.8%

Who is player A? He looks an awful lot like Wil Myers, doesn't he?

im gonna guess gordon or delmon young

siberian khatru
12-11-2012, 09:26 AM
I'll guess Jay Bruce.

Even if it's not, that's the guy I've thought Myers might be ... maybe more toward his floor. If Ryan Braun is his ceiling, Bruce is the floor (although a lot of Bruce's value comes from playing in Great American).

CaliforniaChief
12-11-2012, 09:26 AM
As promised, here's news that's guaranteed to put the Wil Myers trade in some interesting perspective (or at least it did for me). I present to you... a comparison of seasons that led to the player being named minor league player of the year.

STAT PLAYER A MYERS
Average: .319 .314
HR: 27 37
** (Player A has higher power grade. Myers has more HR-friendly park)**
SLG: .587 .600
OBP: .375 .387
Ks: 135 140
K rate: 25.9% 26.8%

Who is player A? He looks an awful lot like Wil Myers, doesn't he?

http://www.kcroyalshistory.com/images/howarddavid.jpg

siberian khatru
12-11-2012, 09:29 AM
http://www.kcroyalshistory.com/images/howarddavid.jpg

Yes, the man we protected in the expansion draft over Jeff Conine.

ChiTown
12-11-2012, 09:29 AM
http://www.kcroyalshistory.com/images/howarddavid.jpg

I had no idea David Howard had the AIDS......

Prison Bitch
12-11-2012, 09:32 AM
I don't know who that is, except it's not Gordon. What's the point? Myers is 21 and he had that season. He's a real high likelihood to be good. I love how people cherry-pick the few busts here and there and act like Myers has an equal parts chance of bust vs. success. He doesn't. The odds are HEAVILY IN FAVOR of him being good for Tampa.


Whoever posted the Kila stats on that last thread to make this same point, needs to be slapped too.

duncan_idaho
12-11-2012, 09:32 AM
KC Connection hits on the head: Player A is Jay Bruce.

I was looking at the list of BA POTY over the past 20 years, and trying to break them into categories (Superstar/First division/injury bust/bust/too early to tell) and Jay Bruce was one that was hard to slot.

So I looked at his minor league numbers the year he was named POTY, and was shocked at the similarities.

If I were forced to lay a bet on it, I'd guess Myers' major league numbers look a LOT like Bruce's - except with a few less HRs (playing in the Trop for 81 games vs. playing in that bandbox in Cincinnati).

I started asking myself... If I were a Reds fan, and Cincy had traded Bruce for two years of (INSERT SOMEONE SIMILAR TO JAMES SHIELDS) before the 2008 season, how would I feel about it now (assuming that guy pitched well for my team).

Took me all the way into acceptance mode.

duncan_idaho
12-11-2012, 09:35 AM
I don't know who that is, except it's not Gordon. What's the point? Myers is 21 and he had that season. He's a real high likelihood to be good. I love how people cherry-pick the few busts here and there and act like Myers has an equal parts chance of bust vs. success. He doesn't. The odds are HEAVILY IN FAVOR of him being good for Tampa.


Whoever posted the Kila stats on that last thread to make this same point, needs to be slapped too.

And Jay Bruce - player A - was 20 when he had that season. He did it across three levels rather than two, but they spent similar time in AAA.

My point: There's a strong indicator that Myers is going to be a very good MLB RF. Probably about the same as Jay Bruce.

Puts a little different - and lower - perspective on Wil Myers' value than I had three days ago, when he was still on my team and I didn't want to analyze these flaws that deeply.

Not trying to say Myers is going to be a bust at all. Just that he's more likely to be Jay Bruce than Ryan Braun (which is what we all were hoping for).

Mr. Flopnuts
12-11-2012, 09:42 AM
This is the year I get back into baseball, and I'm all in on the Royals. What else do I have to cheer for these days?

CaliforniaChief
12-11-2012, 09:43 AM
This is the year I get back into baseball, and I'm all in on the Royals. What else do I have to cheer for these days?

Awesome, dude! Welcome to our crew.

Strongside
12-11-2012, 09:45 AM
This is the first year that I can remember (born in '85) that I'm actually PUMPED going in. I've been skeptical the past few seasons...but this year, I'm all about these guys.

siberian khatru
12-11-2012, 09:45 AM
I used to joke about this, now it has finally happened:

http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/12/royals-sign-willy-taveras.html

Don't we already have Willy Taveras on the roster -- Jarrod Dyson?

Dayton loves him some 1970s-style CFs. I bet he's tried to coax Omar Moreno out of retirement (although as Bill James once wrote, guys like Moreno don't "retire").

How about find the money to sign Michael Bourn? Put Bourn in center, Cain in RF. :D

Mr. Flopnuts
12-11-2012, 09:49 AM
Awesome, dude! Welcome to our crew.

Always been a fan, just secondary to the Mariners. I live in MO again, there is no reason for me not to align my sporting interests with KC. And yes, I did say sporting. ;)

Zeke
12-11-2012, 10:02 AM
They're still shitty.

kcfanXIII
12-11-2012, 10:24 AM
1) Will the improve rotation be improved enough? Does James Shields pitch like a fringe No. 1 away from Tampa Bay? Does Ervin Santana pitch to his highest upside in his walk year? Can Jeremy Guthrie build on his strong performance as a Royal in 2012? Can Wade Davis bring his new mentality- and velocity - back to the rotation?
2) When will Luke Hochevar be shown the door?
3) Does Hosmer bounce back?
4) Can Moustakas hit for a whole season like he did in the first half of 2012?
5) Who regresses?
6) Who plays 2B?
7) Can Jeff Francoeur be at least replacement level, rather than epic horrible level?
8) Will Dayton Moore survive to see 2014?
9) Will Danny Duffy come back healthy? And if he does, is he the same, better or worse?
10) And the big one: Has KC added enough to run down the big-money Detroit Tigers?


my "answers" to the questions as of 12/11/2012. can't wait until july, so i can look back and laugh at how optimistic i am right now.

1. i hope so. it will be better than 2012, but i'm not going to act like i know enough about any of the new guys to say they will be good enough to make a run at the division.

2. hoch will lose his spot in the rotation before opening day. i think if he pitches well enough in relief, he's gone at the deadline.

3. i think hosmer bounces back, and starts playing consistently better baseball all the way around. he's too good of a player to have not worked his ass off this offseason.

4. moose tacos falls in the same category as hosmer. these guys want to win, and have the talent to win, so it all comes down to drive and desire. anybody questioning that about either of these two?

5. i'm not sure who will regress, but i find it hard to believe cain and perez continue to rip the ball the way they did when healthy in 2012. that being said, i'm still excited about them. i think that even with a drop off in production they are still pretty exciting to watch.

6. i think a better question is can getz stay healthy. could we upgrade? sure, but we could do a lot worse.

7. i don't think frenchy bounces back. there i said it. i think he'll continue to hit at that just below .250 mark. for a right fielder who isn't a power guy, that will not do.

8. i'm a homer, and optimistic. yes. i think moore is here well beyond 2014, especially if this shields gamble pays off.

9. i sure hope duffy comes back to form. i like his attitude, and his personality. really impressed me when he was tweeting like a fan after his injury last season. i like his "want to be in kc" attitude, even though i don't get why anyone would have it.

10. dayton has addressed the biggest hole on this team from last year. he's done enough to get me excited for royals baseball, again. its december, the chiefs suck, and i want to put my homer glasses on now, so hell yes they've done enough to compete. who wants tiger meat for dinner?

Mr. Flopnuts
12-11-2012, 10:29 AM
#tigerblood

Big Smoke
12-11-2012, 10:30 AM
In for a division championship!

AndChiefs
12-11-2012, 10:39 AM
I'm sure I'll watch a lot of the games as usual but probably won't post much in here.

Nightfyre
12-11-2012, 10:48 AM
Hoooray.

Priest31kc
12-11-2012, 10:56 AM
Bob Dutton ‏@Royals_Report

#Royals sign LHP George Sherrill and RHP Dan Wheeler to minor-league deals in addition to OF Willy Taveras.

Priest31kc
12-11-2012, 10:57 AM
Jim Duquette ‏@Jim_Duquette

I was just told by a top major league exec that The #Tigers were heavily involved in discussions for Shields before #Royals landed him.

mr. tegu
12-11-2012, 11:02 AM
I am excited for this season. Like many the anger from the trade has settled and I have come to accept it and dare I say approve of it.

duncan_idaho
12-11-2012, 11:04 AM
Side note on Shields:

I was looking at his PitchFx data to try and quantify the claims that he changed his approach after 2010. The difference was pretty astounding. He has always been a fastball/change heavy pitcher, but...

From 2010 to 2011/12, Shields drastically reduces the use of his two-seam fastball and cutter by about 60 percent while ramping up his curve and slider. As a result, his harder offerings - which got blistered in 2010 - become more effective.

It's not unusual for a guy around 30 to change his approach, but that's pretty drastic.

Oh, and his average fastball velocity has actually ticked up since he changed this approach. So even though he just turned 31, that's trending positively (unusual for pitchers this age).

ROYC75
12-11-2012, 11:09 AM
This guy thinks the trade was crap, here's his take .........

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/8732913/assessing-myers-shields-trade-royals-side-aint-pretty


A Royal Blunder
Why it made no sense for the Kansas City Royals to trade star prospect Wil Myers
By Rany Jazayerli on December 10, 2012

Dayton Moore, the general manager of the Kansas City Royals, has been far from perfect at his job. He has made bad trades (Melky Cabrera for Jonathan Sanchez), he has made terrible free-agent signings ($36 million for Jose Guillen), and he has signed Jeff Francoeur not once, but twice.

But two years ago, he was able to deliver something to Royals fans that they hadn't felt for a quarter-century: hope. After the 2010 season, the Royals had fashioned the greatest farm system in baseball, the greatest anyone had seen in years. People were talking about the Royals, and not as a punchline. After 25 years without so much as a pennant race, fans of the team could realistically dream about the playoffs — not just a fluky, 2012-Orioles-style appearance, but a legitimate mini-dynasty atop the weak AL Central.

Last night, that dream was ripped apart like a cheap piñata. Frustrated by the inability to develop a starting rotation to pair with the team's young, talented offense, Moore traded Baseball America's Minor League Player of the Year, right fielder Wil Myers, and three other solid prospects to the Tampa Bay Rays for James Shields and Wade Davis.

The Royals got a terrific starting pitcher in Shields, and Davis was a solid back-end starter for the Rays in 2010 and 2011 before they moved him to the bullpen in 2012, where he excelled. But Kansas City gave up an astonishing amount of talent, rivaling the Atlanta Braves' regrettable payment for Mark Teixeira1 in 2007 as the largest collection of prospects traded in the past decade.

This is a terrible trade for the Royals, deeply flawed in both its theory and execution, and while it might make the Royals marginally more likely to make the playoffs in 2013, it does irreparable damage to their chances of building a perennial winner.

Let's start here: Wil Myers is not a good prospect. He is not a very good prospect. He is one of the best prospects in baseball, almost certain to be among the top five of every prospect list that is published this offseason. Good prospects fail all the time. Very good prospects fail more often than not. But the very best prospects — especially hitting prospects, whose risk of injury is dramatically lower than their counterparts on the mound — turn into above-average regulars, if not stars, well over 50 percent of the time.

Myers, as mentioned, was named Minor League Player of the Year. In the past 20 years, 14 position players won the same award. Here are their names:

1992: Tim Salmon
1993: Manny Ramirez
1994: Derek Jeter
1995: Andruw Jones
1996: Andruw Jones
1997: Paul Konerko
1998: Eric Chavez
2002: Rocco Baldelli
2003: Joe Mauer
2005: Delmon Young
2006: Alex Gordon
2007: Jay Bruce
2008: Matt Wieters
2009: Jason Heyward
2011: Mike Trout

Yes, Delmon Young was once the Minor League Player of the Year, and if you want to spin this trade for the Royals, you can bring up Young's name as a cautionary tale. And after a promising start to his career, Rocco Baldelli was ravaged by injuries and his career ended at age 28. But every other player on that list has gone on to become a well-above-average player at his position. Most of them became stars. At least a few will go into the Hall of Fame.

Based on the list above, Wil Myers has about an 86 percent chance of becoming a true impact player in the major leagues. Yes, that's based on a small sample size, but that's just the point: Myers is a special player, and there are precious few players that you can compare him to. In 2012, he hit .314/.387/.600 between Double-A and Triple-A while playing the entire season at age 21. He hit 37 home runs, the most by any 21-year-old in the high minors (Double-A and Triple-A) since 1963.

Myers wasn't just one of the best prospects in baseball. He also perfectly fit the one glaring hole in the Royals lineup. The fantastic farm system from two years ago has already supplied the Royals with young talent at first base (Eric Hosmer), third base (Mike Moustakas), and catcher (Salvador Perez) to go along with earlier farm system products in left field (Alex Gordon) and at DH (Billy Butler). The Zack Greinke trade brought in starters at shortstop (Alcides Escobar) and center field (Lorenzo Cain).

But in right field, the Royals committed to Jeff Francoeur, who in 2012 was arguably the worst everyday player in the major leagues. (This continues a long tradition of a Commitment to Execrableness in Kansas City. Yuniesky Betancourt would have once again contended for the worst everyday player honor had he played more.) Francoeur hit .235/.287/.378, which would be atrocious for a shortstop, and despite his cannon arm in right field, he had such poor range that defensive metrics estimate he cost the Royals about 10 runs on defense.

Instead of replacing Francoeur with Myers in 2013, a switch that would be worth around four wins, they're stuck with the game's worst right fielder for another season. The downgrade from Myers to Francoeur is almost enough to cancel out the benefit from acquiring Shields.

Shields is an excellent pitcher who has thrown more innings over the past two seasons than anyone except Justin Verlander. But he's not an ace, and if you're going to give up a prospect as good as Wil Myers, you need to get an ace.

Shields has a 3.89 career ERA, and a 3.15 ERA over the past two years. (Mind you, three years ago he had a 5.18 ERA and led the AL in hits, earned runs, and home runs allowed.) But here's the thing: In Tampa Bay, he played in one of the best pitchers' parks in baseball, in front of one of the best defenses in baseball, for one of the best managers in baseball. He brings none of those things with him to Kansas City.

Ballpark? For his career, Shields has a 3.33 ERA when pitching at Tropicana Field. When pitching anywhere else, he has a 4.54 ERA.

Defense? By defensive efficiency — a measure of what percentage of the time a defense turns a ball in play into an out — the Rays have had the best or second-best defense in the major leagues for each of the past three years. By comparison, over the past three seasons the Royals have ranked 28th, 24th, and 26th in defensive efficiency.

Manager? Joe Maddon's record speaks for itself.

These factors are intertwined to some extent; one thing that makes Maddon great is that he's so aggressive about using defensive shifts, which improves the team's defensive efficiency, as does the ballpark. Overall, it's fair to say that Shields is a good pitcher who was put in position to look like a very good pitcher.

In terms of pure baseball value, Shields has the edge in 2013. But of course, the Royals and Rays didn't trade players — they traded contracts, and the difference between the two is staggering. The Rays have control of Myers for at least the next six years — and given their knack for signing star players to long-term deals as soon as they reach the majors (Evan Longoria, Matt Moore), it wouldn't be a surprise if they soon have Myers under club control into the next decade. The Royals have control of James Shields for two years.

Myers will be making the major league minimum, more or less, for the next three years. Shields will get paid $10.5 million in 2013, and the Royals have an option for him at $12 million in 2014.

That's the most inexplicable part of this trade — that a team that plays in a tiny market, whose owner has a history of (to be kind) penuriousness, and who has already indicated that they've reached their payroll cap, would trade a potential star making minimum wage for a pitcher who earns eight figures in each of the next two seasons. You can't simply evaluate this trade by comparing Myers to Shields — you have to compare what the Royals could have done with Myers and all that money they're going to spend on Shields. For $22 million over the next two seasons, the Royals could sign Shaun Marcum. They could come close to signing Edwin Jackson. Hell, Brandon McCarthy, who can't stay healthy but who has a 3.29 ERA over the past two years, just signed with the Diamondbacks for two years and $15.5 million.

James Shields makes the Royals' rotation much better in 2013. But so would a lot of pitchers who would have signed for the money Kansas City is committing to him. The difference between Shields and any of those pitchers amounts to one more win in 2013, two at the most. And all they would have cost is money — not one of the best prospects in baseball.

Wade Davis, the other pitcher the Royals acquired, may also help their rotation in 2013, which says more about the state of their rotation than about him. Davis was a marginal starter for Tampa Bay in 2010 and 2011, primarily because he couldn't put batters away. He struck out only 5.6 batters per nine innings, well below average. The Rays had the depth in their rotation to move Davis to the bullpen for 2012, and there he improved dramatically — his fastball velocity jumped from 91.8 mph to 93.7 mph, his slider was sharper, and his strikeout rate literally doubled to 11.1 per nine innings.

Davis can be a dominant reliever, but the Royals have a stacked bullpen, and they have announced that Davis will go into spring training with a chance to reestablish himself in the rotation. Given that their bullpen is stacked, this is a rare glimpse of wisdom in the insanity that is this deal. If Davis can maintain his extra juice, he would be a very valuable no. 3 starter — particularly since Davis is signed to a contract that gives the Royals club options to keep him at a reasonable salary through 2017.

It's unlikely that this trade will work out for the Royals, but if it does, Davis — not Shields — will be the key to the trade. And if the Royals traded six-plus years of Wil Myers for seven combined years of control of Shields and Davis, this would almost be a fair deal. It would still favor the Rays, given that Myers is years away from making serious money, while Shields and Davis are already making it. But at least it wouldn't be Grand Theft Farm System.

Ah, but the Royals also threw in three other prospects!

Jake Odorizzi, whom the Royals acquired when they traded Zack Greinke two years ago, is a major league–ready starter with four average to above-average pitches. In 145 innings between Double-A and Triple-A, he struck out 135, walked 50, and had a 3.03 ERA. He's probably not more than a no. 3 starter in the end, but he's already a finished prospect — you don't have to dream on him. He was ranked the no. 69 prospect by Baseball America two years ago, the no. 68 prospect last year, and will probably be in that range again. Basically, he's Wade Davis, only four years younger and with three years' less service time.

Mike Montgomery was one of the best left-handed pitchers in the minors two years ago, back when everything was coming up 7's for the Royals. Even a year ago, he was ranked above Myers as the Royals' best prospect, thanks to a fastball in the mid-90s and an excellent changeup. He has mysteriously lost the ability to get hitters out, however, with an ERA over 5 in the minors in each of the past two seasons. He's a lottery ticket for Tampa Bay, but one that could pay off very, very big.

Patrick Leonard just turned 20 years old, and he hit 14 homers in 62 games in rookie ball this year. He could be just about anything. He's not a top prospect, and probably never will be, but he's just the safety-deposit box the Rays snatched up on their way out of the bank vault.

So if you want to read this trade as charitably as possible from the Royals' perspective, you can say that they almost got fair value for Wil Myers … and then flushed Odorizzi, Montgomery, and Leonard down the toilet.

It's a terrible trade, and for it to work out at all for the Royals, they have to go to the playoffs next season. If they do, then the tradeoff might be worth it, the way it was for the Milwaukee Brewers two years ago when they traded Brett Lawrie for Shaun Marcum, and four young players for Zack Greinke.

But as they're presently constructed, the Royals still aren't good enough to win the AL Central. Their top four starters, none of whom were with the team as recently as July, are Shields, Jeremy Guthrie, Ervin Santana, and Davis. Aside from Shields, that's a lot of league-average talent. If they're going to the playoffs, their offense will have to carry them there.

Only here's the thing: The Royals' offense was worse than their pitching staff last season. Thanks to their fine bullpen, the Royals ranked 10th in the AL in runs allowed in 2012. They ranked 12th in runs scored.

If the Royals do make the playoffs in 2013, it will be because their offense took a huge step forward. It will be because Eric Hosmer, who struggled to hit .232/.304/.359 as a sophomore, returns to being the Will Clark clone that everyone expects him to be. It will be because Salvador Perez doesn't get hurt and miss half the season, and because Mike Moustakas improves his batting average, and — most of all — because the Royals get production out of right field.

By making this trade, the Royals gave away the most obvious source of an offensive upgrade. There is no better example of robbing Peter to pay Paul.

There is also no better example of moral hazard, the term that applies to the dangers of having a decision maker (like, say, a GM) whose self-interests are not aligned with those he's making decisions for (like, say, a baseball team). Prior to this trade, the Royals were well set up to win 85-90 games in 2014, when a wave of pitching talent in their farm system was expected to catch up with the hitters who have already arrived. They seemed poised to be competitive through the rest of the decade. Wil Myers would have been in the middle of their lineup the entire time.

But winning 90 games in 2014 does Dayton Moore no good if the Royals struggle again in 2013, because after six consecutive losing seasons to start Moore's tenure, a seventh in 2013 would probably mean he'd be out of a job. This trade hurts the Royals significantly in the long term, but it might help Moore keep his job in the short term.

If the Royals reach the postseason in 2013, ending the longest playoff drought in American sports, Moore will keep his job, and he might even deserve to. It was the work of his front office that led the Royals to draft players like Myers2 in the first place. Even if Moore gutted his farm system for a playoff appearance, by Kansas City standards that qualifies as an unbridled success.

And if they don't win, well, at least there won't be any doubt about whom to blame. It's not owner David Glass, not with the Royals poised to have a payroll north of $80 million. Moore didn't just push all his chips into the pot — he pushed in his job security as well. If his gamble fails, and if it turns out that Moore sacrificed the Royals' future for an illusory present, Royals fans can only hope that someone else will be able to pick up the pieces.

alnorth
12-11-2012, 11:09 AM
Tavaras looks God-awful and should have virtually no chance to make the team. He might be a 4th OF in Omaha.

alnorth
12-11-2012, 11:11 AM
Side note on Shields:

I was looking at his PitchFx data to try and quantify the claims that he changed his approach after 2010. The difference was pretty astounding. He has always been a fastball/change heavy pitcher, but...

From 2010 to 2011/12, Shields drastically reduces the use of his two-seam fastball and cutter by about 60 percent while ramping up his curve and slider. As a result, his harder offerings - which got blistered in 2010 - become more effective.

It's not unusual for a guy around 30 to change his approach, but that's pretty drastic.

Oh, and his average fastball velocity has actually ticked up since he changed this approach. So even though he just turned 31, that's trending positively (unusual for pitchers this age).

From what I read, Shields probably has one of the best changeups in the game, and he relies on it heavily. That might explain some of his durability.

sedated
12-11-2012, 11:24 AM
Trade analysis from Deadspin:
http://deadspin.com/5967520/the-royals-the-rays-and-the-problem-with-windows

In November of 2007, the Rays were on the edge of contention, though not everyone knew it: their regular-season record (like the 2012 Royals') didn't suggest a team about to take the next step. Those Rays, like the current Royals, had hitters: what they needed was pitching and defense. And so they dealt from a position of strength to address a weakness, trading Delmon Young and Brendan Harris (and Jason Pridie) to the Twins for Matt Garza and Jason Bartlett (and Eduardo Morlan). Young, like Myers, had been the top prospect in baseball as a projected right fielder, and he'd finished second in AL Rookie of the Year voting that season. Also like Myers, he'd just turned 22.

Joe Sheehan, taking Tampa Bay's side, wrote this:

"With this deal, the Rays have shifted from collecting talent to forming it into a baseball team, and this trade shows how seriously they take the process. Trading a player with the perceived value of Young is never easy, but with it they've leveraged a gap between that perceived value and what he actually is to make their team better."

as R.J. Anderson pointed out recently, it's somewhat worrisome that Myers is one of the only prospects of his caliber to be traded before ever taking the field for the team that drafted him.

If Myers is the next Young—consensus top prospect turned replacement-level player—then the Royals will have out-Raysed the Rays, trading a flawed young player at the peak of his value, when his potential still seemed likely to pan out.

kstater
12-11-2012, 11:26 AM
Another year, joy.
Just saw the trade, double joy.

DM is all-in on it. I guess I can be excited.

KC_Connection
12-11-2012, 11:28 AM
From what I read, Shields probably has one of the best changeups in the game, and he relies on it heavily. That might explain some of his durability.
It's fantastic. He's made even Bautista look bad on it on occasion.

DeepSouth
12-11-2012, 11:29 AM
Myers, as mentioned, was named Minor League Player of the Year. In the past 20 years, 14 position players won the same award. Here are their names:

1992: Tim Salmon
1993: Manny Ramirez
1994: Derek Jeter
1995: Andruw Jones
1996: Andruw Jones
1997: Paul Konerko
1998: Eric Chavez
2002: Rocco Baldelli
2003: Joe Mauer
2005: Delmon Young
2006: Alex Gordon
2007: Jay Bruce
2008: Matt Wieters
2009: Jason Heyward
2011: Mike Trout


I love Alex Gordon. But he's on this list for 2006. I watched him play AAA ball for Omaha in 2010 because he sucked so bad they sent him back down. He did not bat up to his expectations until 2011. Would you want to wait five years for Myers? I'm all for taking a proven MLB pitcher now for a "should be a star" outfielder.

BigCatDaddy
12-11-2012, 11:30 AM
It's fantastic. He's made even Bautista look bad on it on occasion.

Even Bautista???????? Holy shit!

KC_Connection
12-11-2012, 11:31 AM
Even Bautista???????? Holy shit!
Yes, you might know him as the 2nd best hitter in baseball over the last three seasons behind Miguel Cabrera. Doesn't look bad at the plate too often, but that's what Shields does to hitters with that pitch.

KC_Connection
12-11-2012, 11:35 AM
KC Connection hits on the head: Player A is Jay Bruce.

I was looking at the list of BA POTY over the past 20 years, and trying to break them into categories (Superstar/First division/injury bust/bust/too early to tell) and Jay Bruce was one that was hard to slot.

So I looked at his minor league numbers the year he was named POTY, and was shocked at the similarities.

If I were forced to lay a bet on it, I'd guess Myers' major league numbers look a LOT like Bruce's - except with a few less HRs (playing in the Trop for 81 games vs. playing in that bandbox in Cincinnati).

I started asking myself... If I were a Reds fan, and Cincy had traded Bruce for two years of (INSERT SOMEONE SIMILAR TO JAMES SHIELDS) before the 2008 season, how would I feel about it now (assuming that guy pitched well for my team).

Took me all the way into acceptance mode.
Yeah, he's a pretty good comparable it seems. Bruce's defense isn't so impressive and that restricts his value. What's Myers' like?

Infidel Goat
12-11-2012, 11:38 AM
Bob Dutton ‏@Royals_Report

#Royals sign LHP George Sherrill and RHP Dan Wheeler to minor-league deals in addition to OF Willy Taveras.

Lefties bat .186 against Sherrill and righties bat .216 against Wheeler.

Can we play them like this?

http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-AAIoN6-jv8A/T4a6YNIEHBI/AAAAAAAAZ38/ERD42gXN0Ak/s1600/Twins%2BStuck%2Bon%2BYou%2BBob%2BWalt.jpg

Mr. Laz
12-11-2012, 11:54 AM
If Myers is the next Young—consensus top prospect turned replacement-level player—then the Royals will have out-Raysed the Rays, trading a flawed young player at the peak of his value, when his potential still seemed likely to pan out.
hopefully this is the case

The Royals could have/should have had Myers up late in the season last year and they didn't.

Is that Frenchy love or Myers value would probably drop?


i don't know but now i hope Myers is a huge bust

stevenidol
12-11-2012, 12:04 PM
This guy thinks the trade was crap, here's his take .........

http://www.grantland.com/story/_/id/8732913/assessing-myers-shields-trade-royals-side-aint-pretty


A Royal Blunder
Why it made no sense for the Kansas City Royals to trade star prospect Wil Myers
By Rany Jazayerli on December 10, 2012

Rany had the same boner for Kila too.

cabletech94
12-11-2012, 12:05 PM
damn. i wanted to make it on page 1.

let's go royals. let's go.

Chiefspants
12-11-2012, 12:09 PM
After a few days to cool down, I must admit, it's wonderful to be excited again.

alnorth
12-11-2012, 12:13 PM
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/12/tigers-pursued-james-shields.html

The Tigers offered Avisail Garcia and several prospects for Shields, and they probably would have gotten him if we didn't come in with Myers.

Demonpenz
12-11-2012, 12:22 PM
David Howard hit that ball that Jim Edmonds did the over the head grab on.

RockChalk
12-11-2012, 12:24 PM
1) Thank you for creating the 2013 thread, Duncan.

2) Is ChiefsandO'sFan banned from trolling this thread?

Jerm
12-11-2012, 12:27 PM
Alright damnit...after a couple of days, I'm calm about the trade and ready to go.

I'm excited we'll actually be fielding a major league caliber rotation.

I'm all in and can't frickin wait for the season.

doomy3
12-11-2012, 12:29 PM
http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2012/12/tigers-pursued-james-shields.html

The Tigers offered Avisail Garcia and several prospects for Shields, and they probably would have gotten him if we didn't come in with Myers.

Interesting.

ChiTown
12-11-2012, 12:32 PM
1) Thank you for creating the 2013 thread, Duncan.

2) Is ChiefsandO'sFan banned from trolling this thread?

If not he should be. Dude is annoying as fuck

KevB
12-11-2012, 12:42 PM
Rany had the same boner for Kila too.

Wasn't close to the same argument. Back then, he didn't argue that Kila was the best young hitter in the minors. He effectively argued that a team as flawed as the Royals at the time should give him a shot.

Zeke
12-11-2012, 12:59 PM
exactly. We were running Ross Gload out ther every day, with Kila tearing up the minors. That's why he wanted Kila to get a shot. He didn't compare him to great ML players, or what a star Kila could be. He said he was a cheap minor league option that was producing, would cost the fraction of what Gload was costing, and at WORST would put up similar production... at best would have multiplied it.

Guess what? In 2010 Kila got 180 at bats and stunk it up.. he still outproduced with those limited AB's what Gload was doing with nearly 400 AB's.

In 2009, they brought in an expensive Mike Jacobs to give us less production than what it would have cost to have Kila do that.

That's BAD GM'ing.

BigCatDaddy
12-11-2012, 12:59 PM
Sorry if repost. Moore gets pantys in wad and wreaking of Pioli here.

http://espn.go.com/mlb/hotstove12/story/_/id/8735713/dayton-moore-kansas-city-royals-defends-trade-tampa-bay-rays

Kansas City Royals general manager Dayton Moore is going for it, and he's not happy that he's taking heat for his approach.


Moore acquired former All-Star James Shields and fellow right-hander Wade Davis from Tampa Bay in a six-player deal Sunday that sent top prospects Wil Myers and Jake Odorizzi, along with two other minor leaguers, to the Rays.


There is no question the Royals improved their pitching staff, but they paid a premium for a marginal upgrade, Keith Law writes. Blog


Multiple media outlets have blasted the move, saying the Royals gave up too much. ESPN.com's Keith Law wrote that "the deal reeks of a GM feeling pressure to improve short-term performance to keep his job, which is a terrible situation for any executive both personally and for the way it can inhibit his ability to make rational decisions."



"To me, that's insulting," Moore told USA Today Sports on Monday. "That's very insulting. Very, very insulting. I don't get too bent up about criticism, and I want to take the high road here, but that's insulting my integrity."


The Royals haven't made the playoffs since 1985, even though the AL Central has looked very winnable over the years. The Royals -- 23rd in ERA last season -- dealt for arms from the Rays, the team with baseball's best ERA.


Still, many believe Myers -- who batted .314 with 37 home runs and 109 RBIs in 134 games at Northwest Arkansas and Triple-A Omaha -- was too big a piece to surrender. Law wrote: "This looks very much like the deal that, barring something completely unexpected, will be the move that brings Dayton Moore's tenure in Kansas City, one marked by massive improvement in the team's farm system, to an end."


Moore, who has been the Royals' GM since 2006, said he's not making moves to keep his job.


"If something happened, I couldn't get another job in baseball? Is that what people think?'' he said, according to USA Today Sports.


The Royals were 72-90 last season and haven't had a winning season since 2003, but Moore is banking on a revamped veteran rotation to turn things around. In addition to their trade with the Rays, the Royals acquired 29-year-old right-hander Ervin Santana from the Los Angeles Angels and signed free-agent right-hander Jeremy Guthrie, 33, to a three-year contract.



"When you can acquire a pitcher like James Shields and Wade Davis, we have to do it, because that's what we've committed to our team -- we've committed to our organization," Moore said after the trade. "It's important that we start winning games

sedated
12-11-2012, 01:00 PM
Trade analysis from Deadspin:
http://deadspin.com/5967520/the-royals-the-rays-and-the-problem-with-windows

Another tid-bit from that story:

And maybe Myers isn't worth what his public prospect rankings would suggest, which seems plausible if, as Jeff Passan reported, the A's really turned down a straight-up swap of Myers for the fragile left arm of Brett Anderson.

theelusiveeightrop
12-11-2012, 01:08 PM
Thank you Mr. Idaho.
Always optimistic in December.
My worries: I think Santana is injured. Just a gut feeling.
3 months of Guthrie leaves me unconvinced. I want to be wrong.
I am 48 years old, and I still have dirt from the home plate area from Game 7 when I lept onto the turf at Royals Stadium from atop the visitors dugout. I was a naive 20 year old, thinking the Royals would continue to be contenders. I want this to work out. 27 jaded seasons tells me otherwise.

La literatura
12-11-2012, 01:08 PM
Is Myers going to be an opening day starting for Rays?

BigCatDaddy
12-11-2012, 01:10 PM
Is Myers going to be an opening day starting for Rays?

They'll keep him in the minors for a month to save on service time and then bring him up in May.

RockChalk
12-11-2012, 01:15 PM
If not he should be. Dude is annoying as ****

I don't think he intentionally means to be that way. He just has absolutely zero self-awareness.

alnorth
12-11-2012, 01:35 PM
Sorry if repost. Moore gets pantys in wad and wreaking of Pioli here.

I don't really have a problem with him getting pissed, I was extremely surprised that Law would do that.

Its one thing for random message board fans like us to wildly speculate, but for a guy working at ESPN to accuse a GM of doing something that is not in the team's best interest just to save his job, is a very serious accusation. You kinda need proof for that, it would be like a local reporter, with no evidence at all, writing that maybe the mayor and the local police chief are both on the take.

BigCatDaddy
12-11-2012, 01:40 PM
I don't really have a problem with him getting pissed, I was extremely surprised that Law would do that.

Its one thing for random message board fans like us to wildly speculate, but for a guy working at ESPN to accuse a GM of doing something that is not in the team's best interest just to save his job, is a very serious accusation. You kinda need proof for that, it would be like a local reporter, with no evidence at all, writing that maybe the mayor and the local police chief are both on the take.

That's what they are paid to do. It was my first thought on the trade as well so it's not exactly far fetched. I thought the line about him being able to get another job in baseball was pretty stupid though. I would hope he actually valued not having to up root his family and head to another city for a likely demotion.

duncan_idaho
12-11-2012, 01:41 PM
I don't really have a problem with him getting pissed, I was extremely surprised that Law would do that.

Its one thing for random message board fans like us to wildly speculate, but for a guy working at ESPN to accuse a GM of doing something that is not in the team's best interest just to save his job, is a very serious accusation. You kinda need proof for that, it would be like a local reporter, with no evidence at all, writing that maybe the mayor and the local police chief are both on the take.

That article is an excellent example of why Keith Law will have a really hard time working in baseball again.

I like his takes most of the time... but he occasionally goes off the deep end with arrogance/insults.

siberian khatru
12-11-2012, 01:45 PM
That article is an excellent example of why Keith Law will have a really hard time working in baseball again.

I like his takes most of the time... but he occasionally goes off the deep end with arrogance/insults.

Kinda like his old boss.

Chief_For_Life58
12-11-2012, 01:48 PM
This is the year I get back into baseball, and I'm all in on the Royals. What else do I have to cheer for these days?

the chiefs? whats the difference this year? weve always blew

duncan_idaho
12-11-2012, 01:58 PM
Kinda like his old boss.

Yes. Exactly. De Podesta is going to have to be a good little boy and play nice for a long time before he gets a chance to run another operation.

De Podesta was by far the biggest a-hole I ever talked to in my sports career. Even bigger than Bob Feller.

eazyb81
12-11-2012, 02:01 PM
Any word on who or how good the PTBNL will be?

Cephalic Trauma
12-11-2012, 02:01 PM
Whoa, Rany is a dermatologist and graduated from Hopkins. Wow, I pictured a blogger holed up in his basement or soemthing.

Derm basically means he was around the top of his class at Hopkins. :eek:

DeezNutz
12-11-2012, 02:02 PM
That article is an excellent example of why Keith Law will have a really hard time working in baseball again.

I like his takes most of the time... but he occasionally goes off the deep end with arrogance/insults.

I don't have a problem with Law's opinion at all. When a GM does something as stupid as DM did, it opens that person up to criticism and valid speculation.

To me, Law's comments were pretty tame because he didn't openly speculate about Dayton's level of competence, which should also be fair game.

mr. tegu
12-11-2012, 02:04 PM
Any word on who or how good the PTBNL will be?

David Price. :D

duncan_idaho
12-11-2012, 02:11 PM
I don't have a problem with Law's opinion at all. When a GM does something as stupid as DM did, it opens that person up to criticism and valid speculation.

To me, Law's comments were pretty tame because he didn't openly speculate about Dayton's level of competence, which should also be fair game.

Fine to criticize. Certainly enough there to criticize.

But questioning the moral integrity of GMs is going to upset most of them. Just comes off personal and petty (fans can do it. Journalists can't).

duncan_idaho
12-11-2012, 02:13 PM
Any word on who or how good the PTBNL will be?

I would bet on a lower-level 2012 draftee. Probably not anything too exciting.

I wouldn't mind it being Bralin Jackson. 5th round pick, CF from Raytown who can run and has some power projection.

stevenidol
12-11-2012, 02:14 PM
Any word on who or how good the PTBNL will be?

Benjamin Franklin.

CaliforniaChief
12-11-2012, 02:18 PM
Heh. I confused PTBNL with PIIHB there for a second.

Zeke
12-11-2012, 02:21 PM
I don't think it's too far fetched to speculate Dayton would be the catcher in that scenario.

Prison Bitch
12-11-2012, 02:23 PM
Jim Duquette ‏@Jim_Duquette

I was just told by a top major league exec that The #Tigers were heavily involved in discussions for Shields before #Royals landed him.


What did they have? Castellanos? So what, that isn't near enough to get it done. Wonder why they thought they had the dry powder to get Shields.

siberian khatru
12-11-2012, 02:24 PM
Yes. Exactly. De Podesta is going to have to be a good little boy and play nice for a long time before he gets a chance to run another operation.

De Podesta was by far the biggest a-hole I ever talked to in my sports career. Even bigger than Bob Feller.

I was thinking of J.P. Ricciardi.

stevenidol
12-11-2012, 02:26 PM
What did they have? Castellanos? So what, that isn't near enough to get it done. Wonder why they thought they had the dry powder to get Shields.

Avisail Garcia was the top guy they offered among others.

http://www.freep.com/article/20121211/SPORTS02/121211065/detroit-tigers-james-shields-trade-kansas-city-royals?odyssey=nav%7Chead

Strongside
12-11-2012, 02:40 PM
It makes me feel so much better about this trade knowing that we stole him while the Tigers were trying to get him. Seriously, fuck those guys.

mr. tegu
12-11-2012, 02:44 PM
The Tigers interest now makes it more clear why the reports came out that they didn't want the Royals to get him. That and the fact that they are scared of us! We got this!

KCUnited
12-11-2012, 02:46 PM
It makes me feel so much better about this trade knowing that we stole him while the Tigers were trying to get him. Seriously, **** those guys.

We didn't steal shit.

Prison Bitch
12-11-2012, 03:01 PM
Avisail Garcia was the top guy they offered among others.




So he's their #2 prospect and not in any top-30 lists I can find. I don't see what's so impressive about him. He was their #10 guy last year. And what else goes with him? Would have to be Castellanos + Avasail and who needs a 3B in Tampa?


baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/rankings/organization-top-10-prospects/2013/2614333.html

unnecessary drama
12-11-2012, 03:16 PM
I tell you what...

If we managed to somehow trade a few more prospects (at this point, we're all in) to land Dickey...sign me up.

duncan_idaho
12-11-2012, 03:29 PM
I tell you what...

If we managed to somehow trade a few more prospects (at this point, we're all in) to land Dickey...sign me up.

Yeah, that would be an incredible coup.

Not sure what the Mets are looking for in return, but MLB ready bat is the main indication I've seen.

If that's the case, KC doesn't really match up. If they're willing to take guys that are lower in the system/farther away, then you might be able to talk.

Texas is in the mix, reportedly, for Dickey. Or at least kicking the tires. If they're willing to move Mike Olt, KC is in the same situation the Tigers were on Shields. Just not able to match...

siberian khatru
12-11-2012, 03:29 PM
I'm not averse to trading a bullpen arm for a RF

duncan_idaho
12-11-2012, 03:31 PM
I was thinking of J.P. Ricciardi.

I always have a hard time keep him and De Podesta straight. Not sure why.

Brainfart moment.

mr. tegu
12-11-2012, 03:33 PM
I'm not averse to trading a bullpen arm for a RF

I would hate to see anyone leave our pen. It is so good and with an improved rotation in front of them they could be unhittable. Surely we have a few players in the minors that could net us a serviceable RF.

siberian khatru
12-11-2012, 03:37 PM
I would hate to see anyone leave our pen. It is so good and with an improved rotation in front of them they could be unhittable. Surely we have a few players in the minors that could net us a serviceable RF.

I'm fine with that. It's just that a team might want more immediate help. If we could get a decent RF only for a bullpen arm, I'd rather deal from strength to shore up a big weakness. I wonder what Crow might bring.

mr. tegu
12-11-2012, 03:43 PM
I'm fine with that. It's just that a team might want more immediate help. If we could get a decent RF only for a bullpen arm, I'd rather deal from strength to shore up a big weakness. I wonder what Crow might bring.

He would probably bring the most since other teams will still feel he can be made into a starter. And actually, of all the guys, he is the one I least trust.

Zeke
12-11-2012, 03:45 PM
I'm fine with that. It's just that a team might want more immediate help. If we could get a decent RF only for a bullpen arm, I'd rather deal from strength to shore up a big weakness. I wonder what Crow might bring.

I would rather see a guy like Cody Ross on a 1-year deal in RF than Frenchy.

CoMoChief
12-11-2012, 03:47 PM
Crow needs to be a 7th-8th inning set up man

unnecessary drama
12-11-2012, 03:49 PM
Yeah I don't think we can afford to give away any of our MLB bats.

I really like our core of Cain, Gordon, Moustakas, Escobar, Hosmer, Perez and Butler. There are far worse lineups than that...in fact, if a few of those guys take a marginal step or two, that might even be considered an elite lineup.

We'd have an elite lineup, with an elite bullpen, and a decent rotation. Give us a couple of bounces and I don't see why we can't compete for the division.

unnecessary drama
12-11-2012, 03:50 PM
even with Frenchy and whoever plays 2nd batting 8th and 9th (though I'm sure Frenchy will hit 6th or 7th for some reason.

Saul Good
12-11-2012, 03:52 PM
Yeah I don't think we can afford to give away any of our MLB bats.

I really like our core of Cain, Gordon, Moustakas, Escobar, Hosmer, Perez and Butler. There are far worse lineups than that...in fact, if a few of those guys take a marginal step or two, that might even be considered an elite lineup.

We'd have an elite lineup, with an elite bullpen, and a decent rotation. Give us a couple of bounces and I don't see why we can't compete for the division.

We can't have an elite lineup with two gaping holes.

mr. tegu
12-11-2012, 03:54 PM
even with Frenchy and whoever plays 2nd batting 8th and 9th (though I'm sure Frenchy will hit 6th or 7th for some reason.

Escobar is great at 9th. Frenchy is probably best at 7th after Perez. This lets the 8th be 2B and 9th be Escobar or the CF is Escobar is better at the 2 spot. Either way Frenchy batting 7th prevents him from being too much of an intrical part of the offense. You don't rely too much on him to drive in runs but you also don't rely too much on him to start rallies.

unnecessary drama
12-11-2012, 03:56 PM
We can't have an elite lineup with two gaping holes.

I kind of just disagree...

There aren't a lot of lineups in baseball that don't have 1-2 weak spots.

Maybe I'm wrong.

I just think our core 7 can make up for 2 shitty players...especially if we can get some production out of those 2 shitty players (you never know I guess)

Zeke
12-11-2012, 03:57 PM
Yeah I don't think we can afford to give away any of our MLB bats.

I really like our core of Cain, Gordon, Moustakas, Escobar, Hosmer, Perez and Butler. There are far worse lineups than that...in fact, if a few of those guys take a marginal step or two, that might even be considered an elite lineup.

We'd have an elite lineup, with an elite bullpen, and a decent rotation. Give us a couple of bounces and I don't see why we can't compete for the division.

While I applaud your spirits, an "elite" offense scores around 800+ runs over the course of the year.

You honestly think that lineup will score 800 runs? ESPECIALLY with it being anchored by Frenchy\Getz?

I think they have the potential to improve to maybe 720 runs... but 800 runs I don't see in their near future... Now maybe if we had a young stud RF'r hitting 35 HR's in the middle of our lineup... But where would we ever find such a commodity? :)

unnecessary drama
12-11-2012, 04:00 PM
didn't we have the 12th ranked offense last year? Or was that just in the AL? I don't know, I kind of lost interest after we started 3-50

unnecessary drama
12-11-2012, 04:02 PM
I can't see Hosmer not hitting at least .280 this year. I think Moustakas takes at least a marginal step forward. Gordon and Butler we can expect the same.

I really, really like Cain. I think he has great potential both offensively and defensively. If we got say .300 15/80 and 20 SB's out of him? (which is reasonable) and a healthy season? Added with a star in Perez?

I'm just saying...we could be borderline elite.

keg in kc
12-11-2012, 04:02 PM
I think they have the potential to improve to maybe 720 runs... but 800 runs I don't see in their near future... Now maybe if we had a young stud RF'r hitting 35 HR's in the middle of our lineup... But where would we ever find such a commodity? :)If you think Myers would've been hitting 35 HRs playing half his games at the K, I have a bridge and some beach front property to sell you.

mr. tegu
12-11-2012, 04:02 PM
My ideal lineup assuming Frenchy is playing:

Gordon
Cain
Hosmer
Butler
Moose
Perez
Frenchy
Getz (assuming he is 2B)
Escobar (when Dyson plays, put Escobar to 2nd and Dyson 9th)

Zeke
12-11-2012, 04:03 PM
If you think Myers would've been hitting 35 HRs playing half his games at the K, I have a bridge and some beach front property to sell you.

That was tongue in cheek.

The point was -> KC is no where near an "elite" offense.

mr. tegu
12-11-2012, 04:05 PM
I think Moustakas takes at least a marginal step forward.

Moose just needs to stretch his first half out to a full season and he will be really good. I think no more Seitzer is a win as well. I can't believe how much he screwed with guys' swings and approaches. That and hopefully the days of taking first pitch strikes right down the middle no matter the situation are over as well.

keg in kc
12-11-2012, 04:06 PM
That was tongue in cheek.

The point was -> KC is no where near an "elite" offense.I would say that depends largely on Hosmer and Moose. Not Frenchy and Getz.

unnecessary drama
12-11-2012, 04:07 PM
well take an offense in the AL central and tell me why they are better than KC's offense.

Detroit has two GREAT bats and a few pretty good ones...but they have holes, too.

The White Sox strike out way too often, but they have a pretty comparable offense...probably more power for less average.

We are better offensively than Cleveland and Minnesota.

Saul Good
12-11-2012, 04:11 PM
didn't we have the 12th ranked offense last year? Or was that just in the AL? I don't know, I kind of lost interest after we started 3-50

That was in the AL. Our hitting actually ranked behind our pitching.

Zeke
12-11-2012, 04:12 PM
I can't see Hosmer not hitting at least .280 this year. I think Moustakas takes at least a marginal step forward. Gordon and Butler we can expect the same.

I really, really like Cain. I think he has great potential both offensively and defensively. If we got say .300 15/80 and 20 SB's out of him? (which is reasonable) and a healthy season? Added with a star in Perez?

I'm just saying...we could be borderline elite.

If Hosmer and Mous develop into consistent hitters at the ML level this season, we will improve to over 700 runs.

Expecting Cain to put up those numbers is complete and total homerism. The guy has all of 8 career HR's and 45 RBi's in 400+ AB's spread out over 3 seasons...

If he stays healthy, we're looking at about a .750 OPS guy that plays respectable defense.

Saul Good
12-11-2012, 04:12 PM
I kind of just disagree...

There aren't a lot of lineups in baseball that don't have 1-2 weak spots.

Maybe I'm wrong.

I just think our core 7 can make up for 2 shitty players...especially if we can get some production out of those 2 shitty players (you never know I guess)

Everyone has weak spots. The Royals have Getz and Francouer.

unnecessary drama
12-11-2012, 04:16 PM
If Hosmer and Mous develop into consistent hitters at the ML level this season, we will improve to over 700 runs.

Expecting Cain to put up those numbers is complete and total homerism. The guy has all of 8 career HR's and 45 RBi's in 400+ AB's spread out over 3 seasons...

If he stays healthy, we're looking at about a .750 OPS guy that plays respectable defense.

Maybe it's homerism. I'm a fantasy baseball player and he was getting all sorts of buzz prior to his injury and he was raking a bit after his injury. I'm not sure, I like the kid.

Zeke
12-11-2012, 04:17 PM
I would say that depends largely on Hosmer and Moose. Not Frenchy and Getz.

Moose and Hos both taking big steps forward (is a big if) does not make this offense elite. Having 2 guys that rake will not make up having 2 guys that don't show up.

Having NEGATIVE impact bats in your lineup is much more damaging than having a couple of "good" players in the lineup. And neither of them were "good" players last year. If they take huge strides as suggested, they can become "good" players. That is still nothing near "elite". That's the whole point.

This team will struggle to score 700 runs, unless multiple people jump the fence and develop. They won't sniff 800 runs like the guy i was addressing, originally.

Zeke
12-11-2012, 04:22 PM
well take an offense in the AL central and tell me why they are better than KC's offense.

Detroit has two GREAT bats and a few pretty good ones...but they have holes, too.

The White Sox strike out way too often, but they have a pretty comparable offense...probably more power for less average.

We are better offensively than Cleveland and Minnesota.

Ok, we'll just stop right there.... You're making me chuckle.

Not sure if you're just trolling, or really don't know what you're talking about.

Chicago's offense is lightyears better than KC's. They scored 75 more runs than we did. That's a fairly sizeable difference. Minnesota's offense even outscored KC's by 25 runs (mainly due to their ability to get on base).

KC and Cleveland are right on par with each other, offensively. We scored 9 more runs than them... so there's the two teams that you should compare from last year.

Zeke
12-11-2012, 04:24 PM
Maybe it's homerism. I'm a fantasy baseball player and he was getting all sorts of buzz prior to his injury and he was raking a bit after his injury. I'm not sure, I like the kid.

by Fantasy do you mean "fantasy world"? Because if you're talking fantasy as in "stats league" then you didn't pay attention to the numbers.

He will steal you a few bases to help your fantasy team, that's if you can keep him in the lineup...

teedubya
12-11-2012, 04:24 PM
I'm gonna predict the first 10 game losing streak to be in early May.

Zeke
12-11-2012, 04:26 PM
I'm gonna predict the first 10 game losing streak to be in early May.

Lets get it over with early.

BigRedChief
12-11-2012, 04:28 PM
Why isn't DM making a move for Shumaker? Seems like a no brainer. Can play 2B and all outfield spots. Hits close to .300 every year. A really good locker room guy. Could provide some veteran leadership in the locker room. Knows how to win, has two World Championships rings.

Cards won't be asking much. He just doesn't fit into our plans this year but seems to be a great fit for the Royals.

KCUnited
12-11-2012, 04:30 PM
I'm gonna predict the first 10 game losing streak to be in early May.

This is where I'm at. I can't fall for another offseason in KC. #onpapercontenders

theelusiveeightrop
12-11-2012, 04:42 PM
The Royals seem to be doing lots of maneuvering to improve from 71 to 74 wins.

thurman merman
12-11-2012, 04:45 PM
http://www.kcroyalshistory.com/images/howarddavid.jpg

ROFL

KC_Connection
12-11-2012, 04:48 PM
Ok, we'll just stop right there.... You're making me chuckle.

Not sure if you're just trolling, or really don't know what you're talking about.

Chicago's offense is lightyears better than KC's. They scored 75 more runs than we did. That's a fairly sizeable difference. Minnesota's offense even outscored KC's by 25 runs (mainly due to their ability to get on base).

KC and Cleveland are right on par with each other, offensively. We scored 9 more runs than them... so there's the two teams that you should compare from last year.
Chicago will be losing Youk, losing AJP (most likely), and Alex Rios cannot be expected to do what he did last year (he's quite possibly the most inconsistent player in baseball history). Konerko is also getting up there. The Royals might be closer to them than you think in 2013.

duncan_idaho
12-11-2012, 04:49 PM
I would hate to see anyone leave our pen. It is so good and with an improved rotation in front of them they could be unhittable. Surely we have a few players in the minors that could net us a serviceable RF.

The pen is so deep, they could afford to move a guy.

Holland, Kelvin Herrera, Tim Collins, Aaron Crow are proven, front-line bullpen arms.

Louis Coleman is a proven solid piece - especially when used correctly (i.e. for RH-heavy matchups ... something that would be more possible if you have 3-4 starters pounding out 200 IP).

Donnie Joseph, Juan Gutierrez, etc. are other guys that would be potential pieces in the bullpen. And you can always find bullpen guys, something Moore has shown a real penchant for.

stonedstooge
12-11-2012, 04:49 PM
Moose just needs to stretch his first half out to a full season and he will be really good. I think no more Seitzer is a win as well. I can't believe how much he screwed with guys' swings and approaches. That and hopefully the days of taking first pitch strikes right down the middle no matter the situation are over as well.

Whose swings did you see effected? The two that needed the most help, Hosmer and Frenchy, didn't look to change their approach or swing during the season hardly at all. Hosmer did for short periods, but always fell back to his ripping and Frenchy never stopped ripping

mr. tegu
12-11-2012, 04:57 PM
Whose swings did you see effected? The two that needed the most help, Hosmer and Frenchy, didn't look to change their approach or swing during the season hardly at all. Hosmer did for short periods, but always fell back to his ripping and Frenchy never stopped ripping

Hosmer was consistently tweaking and altering his approach and swing. Seitzer talked about it all the time. It was after his horribly bad luck start that they started trying to work on things and adjust them (don't recall the specifics anymore) even nothing was broken. I don't really think Hosmer needed help. It wasn't until they broke what wasn't fixed that things started getting bad for him as far as making poor contact and having ugly swings.

I really don't care about Frenchy and am not sure he can be helped. And it just seems like Seitzer had a lot of influence in that he wanted the guys to be patient even in favorable situations, so they would just watch meatballs go right by.

unnecessary drama
12-11-2012, 04:58 PM
I'm not trying to troll I just think our offense didn't live up to its potential last year. We had a terrible year from Hosmer, less than half a year from Perez, less than a quarter of a year with Cain...and all of these young guys are going into the season with another year under their belt where typically the primes of a lot of careers start around age 24, 25, 26...

but hey, maybe I'm too optimistic

duncan_idaho
12-11-2012, 05:00 PM
Why isn't DM making a move for Shumaker? Seems like a no brainer. Can play 2B and all outfield spots. Hits close to .300 every year. A really good locker room guy. Could provide some veteran leadership in the locker room. Knows how to win, has two World Championships rings.

Cards won't be asking much. He just doesn't fit into our plans this year but seems to be a great fit for the Royals.

I would like it. The price you guys were talking about yesterday (Calixte or Mondesi) makes it unattractive, but if it was, say, a low impact guy like a depth starter or a lottery ticket arm, that might work.

Also was thinking about this... let's play pretend and flash forward to mid-season or this time next year. Say Orlando Calixte is raking at Northwest Arkansas (.280/.330/.500 slash). At his age, and if his D at SS holds up, that probably makes him a top 50 prospect. Would St. Louis be interested enough in a young SS to move one of the power RHPs for him? With Rosenthal, Miller, Jenkins and Martinez, seems like there's a surplus there that might match up.

Cards perspective on that? Not sure how dire a need SS is for you guys.

stonedstooge
12-11-2012, 05:03 PM
Hosmer was consistently tweaking and altering his approach and swing. Seitzer talked about it all the time. It was after his horribly bad luck start that they started trying to work on things and adjust them (don't recall the specifics anymore) even nothing was broken. I don't really think Hosmer needed help. It wasn't until they broke what wasn't fixed that things started getting bad for him as far as making poor contact and having ugly swings.

I really don't care about Frenchy and am not sure he can be helped. And it just seems like Seitzer had a lot of influence in that he wanted the guys to be patient even in favorable situations, so they would just watch meatballs go right by.

Could be. I liked Seitzer and believe Francouer had a hand in his dismissal along with Leadheaded Ned. Guess we will see what happens with the new batting coaches.

duncan_idaho
12-11-2012, 05:10 PM
If I'm being optimistic about the offense, here are best case scenarios:

7 - Alex Gordon: .310/25/80 RBI/110 R/10 SB/.380 OBP/.500 SLG
6 - Escobar: .300/8/50/85 R/.340 OBP/.390 SLG/40 SB
3 - Eric Hosmer: .300/30/110/100/15 SB/.350 OBP/.500 SLG
DH - Billy Butler: .325/30/100/85/0/.375 OBP/.500 SLG
5 - Mike Moustakas: .280/35/90/80/3/.340 OBP/.500 SLG
2 - Sal Perez: .300/22/85/75/0/.330 OBP/.500 SLG
9 - Jeff Francoeur: .280/25/75/75/.315 OBP/.450 SLG
8 - Lorenzo Cain: .280/20/75/75/.320 OBP/.450 SLG/25 SB
4 - Chris Getz: .260/0/40/65/.300 OBP/.375 SLG

If you get max upside years from EVERYONE (not going to happen), then you can talk about elite offense.

I think 720 R is a pretty good mark to shoot for. And that's with Hosmer and Moustakas being quality producers, if not elite guys (though if Moose puts up a .270/30/80 line, with his defense, that makes him an elite AL 3B).

stonedstooge
12-11-2012, 05:14 PM
If I'm being optimistic about the offense, here are best case scenarios:

7 - Alex Gordon: .310/25/80 RBI/110 R/10 SB/.380 OBP/.500 SLG
6 - Escobar: .300/8/50/85 R/.340 OBP/.390 SLG/40 SB
3 - Eric Hosmer: .300/30/110/100/15 SB/.350 OBP/.500 SLG
DH - Billy Butler: .325/30/100/85/0/.375 OBP/.500 SLG
5 - Mike Moustakas: .280/35/90/80/3/.340 OBP/.500 SLG
2 - Sal Perez: .300/22/85/75/0/.330 OBP/.500 SLG
9 - Jeff Francoeur: .280/25/75/75/.315 OBP/.450 SLG
8 - Lorenzo Cain: .280/20/75/75/.320 OBP/.450 SLG/25 SB
4 - Chris Getz: .260/0/40/65/.300 OBP/.375 SLG

If you get max upside years from EVERYONE (not going to happen), then you can talk about elite offense.

I think 720 R is a pretty good mark to shoot for. And that's with Hosmer and Moustakas being quality producers, if not elite guys (though if Moose puts up a .270/30/80 line, with his defense, that makes him an elite AL 3B).

JIMP

CoMoChief
12-11-2012, 05:28 PM
If I'm being optimistic about the offense, here are best case scenarios:

7 - Alex Gordon: .310/25/80 RBI/110 R/10 SB/.380 OBP/.500 SLG
6 - Escobar: .300/8/50/85 R/.340 OBP/.390 SLG/40 SB
3 - Eric Hosmer: .300/30/110/100/15 SB/.350 OBP/.500 SLG
DH - Billy Butler: .325/30/100/85/0/.375 OBP/.500 SLG
5 - Mike Moustakas: .280/35/90/80/3/.340 OBP/.500 SLG
2 - Sal Perez: .300/22/85/75/0/.330 OBP/.500 SLG
9 - Jeff Francoeur: .280/25/75/75/.315 OBP/.450 SLG
8 - Lorenzo Cain: .280/20/75/75/.320 OBP/.450 SLG/25 SB
4 - Chris Getz: .260/0/40/65/.300 OBP/.375 SLG

If you get max upside years from EVERYONE (not going to happen), then you can talk about elite offense.

I think 720 R is a pretty good mark to shoot for. And that's with Hosmer and Moustakas being quality producers, if not elite guys (though if Moose puts up a .270/30/80 line, with his defense, that makes him an elite AL 3B).

ROFL

alnorth
12-11-2012, 06:15 PM
Ok, we'll just stop right there.... You're making me chuckle.

Not sure if you're just trolling, or really don't know what you're talking about.

Chicago's offense is lightyears better than KC's. They scored 75 more runs than we did. That's a fairly sizeable difference. Minnesota's offense even outscored KC's by 25 runs (mainly due to their ability to get on base).

KC and Cleveland are right on par with each other, offensively. We scored 9 more runs than them... so there's the two teams that you should compare from last year.

Go take a look at how many runs the Royals scored in 2011. Hosmer and Moose had significant sophomore slumps.

The "we might make the playoffs" scenario presumes their 3rd years, which is not an unreasonable assumption at all, will be like or better than their 1st years. And Butler/Gordon/Perez/Escobar wont regress.

alnorth
12-11-2012, 06:18 PM
ROFL

Frenchy had an .805 OPS in 2011. Shocked everyone, but he did it. He's not likely to repeat that because his babip was really high in 2011, but it was really low in 2012, and he's probably a low-700 OPS guy. If we're talking "maximum potential" for Frenchy, thats not an outrageous call. (what is probably unreasonable is presuming everyone maxes out)

alnorth
12-11-2012, 06:19 PM
If I'm being optimistic about the offense, here are best case scenarios:

7 - Alex Gordon: .310/25/80 RBI/110 R/10 SB/.380 OBP/.500 SLG
6 - Escobar: .300/8/50/85 R/.340 OBP/.390 SLG/40 SB
3 - Eric Hosmer: .300/30/110/100/15 SB/.350 OBP/.500 SLG
DH - Billy Butler: .325/30/100/85/0/.375 OBP/.500 SLG
5 - Mike Moustakas: .280/35/90/80/3/.340 OBP/.500 SLG
2 - Sal Perez: .300/22/85/75/0/.330 OBP/.500 SLG
9 - Jeff Francoeur: .280/25/75/75/.315 OBP/.450 SLG
8 - Lorenzo Cain: .280/20/75/75/.320 OBP/.450 SLG/25 SB
4 - Chris Getz: .260/0/40/65/.300 OBP/.375 SLG

If you get max upside years from EVERYONE (not going to happen), then you can talk about elite offense.

I think 720 R is a pretty good mark to shoot for. And that's with Hosmer and Moustakas being quality producers, if not elite guys (though if Moose puts up a .270/30/80 line, with his defense, that makes him an elite AL 3B).

If we actually do that, we're probably closer to 770-780 runs than 720.

DeezNutz
12-11-2012, 06:20 PM
Don't think for a minute that duncan was projecting our lineup in its totality. He simply listed all of the major pieces and their individual best-case scenarios.

Some might make this; some won't, and some will disappoint.

In sum, have to hope that the roster as a whole is significantly more talented, and this is the million-dollar question.

lewdog
12-11-2012, 06:34 PM
RUSH Sucks!!!

duncan_idaho
12-11-2012, 06:50 PM
I'm by no mean saying that's what I expect the lineup to put up (And if that did happen, I'd expect them to be over 800 runs).

Just listing best case scenarios, IMO, from each of them. Not what I actually expect to see ...

BigRedChief
12-11-2012, 06:58 PM
I would like it. The price you guys were talking about yesterday (Calixte or Mondesi) makes it unattractive, but if it was, say, a low impact guy like a depth starter or a lottery ticket arm, that might work.

Also was thinking about this... let's play pretend and flash forward to mid-season or this time next year. Say Orlando Calixte is raking at Northwest Arkansas (.280/.330/.500 slash). At his age, and if his D at SS holds up, that probably makes him a top 50 prospect. Would St. Louis be interested enough in a young SS to move one of the power RHPs for him? With Rosenthal, Miller, Jenkins and Martinez, seems like there's a surplus there that might match up.

Cards perspective on that? Not sure how dire a need SS is for you guys.No way Mo our GM can expect a Calixte for a utility player. Nor anything less than a Meyer + more for any of those other pitchers you mentioned.

Kelly or Lynn maybe. For crissakes Lynn won 18 games last year.

I think DJ was talking about throwing in Kelly and Shumaker. Thats too much for me. I think Kelley would be your #2 or #3 starter. He throws in the high 90's and doesn't walk a lot of hitters. He's a top notch talent. And he's the grandson of Machine Gun Kelly. Think of the marketing.:hmmm:

BigRedChief
12-11-2012, 07:05 PM
Don't think for a minute that duncan was projecting our lineup in its totality. He simply listed all of the major pieces and their individual best-case scenarios.

Some might make this; some won't, and some will disappoint.

In sum, have to hope that the roster as a whole is significantly more talented, and this is the million-dollar question.Shumaker would be way better for you guys at 2B than Getz. No way they are asking a lot for Shu.

DM has decided that this is your 2 year window to make a run. I hope is pans out. You loyal Royal fans deserve to root for a winner. Deserve to experience playoff baseball in KC.

DeezNutz
12-11-2012, 07:05 PM
No way Mo our GM can expect a Calixte for a utility player. Nor anything less than a Meyer + more for any of those other pitchers you mentioned.

Kelly or Lynn maybe. For crissakes Lynn won 18 games last year.

I think DJ was talking about throwing in Kelly and Shumaker. Thats too much for me. I think Kelley would be your #2 or #3 starter. He throws in the high 90's and doesn't walk a lot of hitters. He's a top notch talent. And he's the grandson of Machine Gun Kelly. Think of the marketing.:hmmm:

The fuck?

DeezNutz
12-11-2012, 07:06 PM
Shumaker would be way better for you guys at 2B than Getz. No way they are asking a lot for Shu.

DM has decided that this is your 2 year window to make a run. I hope is pans out. You Royal fans deserve to root for a winner. Deserve to experience playoff baseball in KC.

Agree with all of this, dude. Thanks for the kind thoughts.

BigRedChief
12-11-2012, 07:08 PM
The fuck?Everyone of those pitchers have potential to be #1 or #2 starters on a playoff team. They all have 6 years of control left to their "owners". Thats as expensive as trades get.

Prison Bitch
12-11-2012, 07:21 PM
Everyone of those pitchers have potential to be #1 or #2 starters on a playoff team. They all have 6 years of control left to their "owners". Thats as expensive as trades get.

Over-rate much?

alnorth
12-11-2012, 07:24 PM
I'm by no mean saying that's what I expect the lineup to put up (And if that did happen, I'd expect them to be over 800 runs).

Just listing best case scenarios, IMO, from each of them. Not what I actually expect to see ...

Suppose they did?

*close eyes*

*drool*

doomy3
12-11-2012, 07:26 PM
Cleveland getting Stubbs and Trevor Bauer for Choo. Pretty nice haul.

stonedstooge
12-11-2012, 07:28 PM
Cleveland getting Stubbs and Trevor Bauer for Choo. Pretty nice haul.

fuck Choo

DeezNutz
12-11-2012, 07:28 PM
Everyone of those pitchers have potential to be #1 or #2 starters on a playoff team. They all have 6 years of control left to their "owners". Thats as expensive as trades get.

Equating any "pitching prospect" to Myers in terms of value is very flawed.

Prison Bitch
12-11-2012, 07:29 PM
Cleveland getting Stubbs and Trevor Bauer for Choo. Pretty nice haul.

That is a nice deal for Cleveland. NOw they need to move Cabrera who is a really nice trade chip. Choo is a very good player however, very similar to Billy Butler in player value, so this does prove yet again that acquiring pitching is very expensive. I wouldn't trade Butler for Bauer but I think the Royals are a much better team the next two years overall than Cleveland looks to be.

Dr. Facebook Fever
12-11-2012, 07:30 PM
Everyone of those pitchers have potential to be #1 or #2 starters on a playoff team. They all have 6 years of control left to their "owners". Thats as expensive as trades get.

The Academy thinks you might be full of shit.

BigRedChief
12-11-2012, 07:31 PM
Equating any "pitching prospect" to Myers in terms of value is very flawed.Maybe but its a moot point now.

Anyway, I hope you fans get to have some fun this summer. Let's have the I-75 Series II.

Dr. Facebook Fever
12-11-2012, 07:35 PM
Maybe but its a moot point now.

Anyway, I hope you fans get to have some fun this summer. Let's have the I-75 Series II.

That would be cool as long as we win again, otherwise it would suck.

:)

BigRedChief
12-11-2012, 07:39 PM
That would be cool as long as we win again, otherwise it would suck.

:)Wellll it would be hard to have an I-75 series II without the both of us. It's a deal. Win-Win for everyone :toast:

But, seriously both times we won lately, we stunk it up and barely got into the playoffs. We just got hot at the right time. That could happen for the Royals too.

Dr. Facebook Fever
12-11-2012, 07:41 PM
Wellll it would be hard to have an I-75 series II without the both of us. It's a deal. Win-Win for everyone :toast:

But more of a win for us... that's the most important thing.

:D

DeezNutz
12-11-2012, 07:43 PM
Maybe but its a moot point now.

Anyway, I hope you fans get to have some fun this summer. Let's have the I-75 Series II.

:toast:

La literatura
12-11-2012, 07:43 PM
Spring can't get here fast enough.

BigRedChief
12-11-2012, 07:44 PM
But more of a win for us... that's the most important thing.

:Dhey I going all cumbaya and you go all partisan.... where's that damn Derkinger call pic?;)

Ebolapox
12-11-2012, 07:48 PM
Maybe but its a moot point now.

Anyway, I hope you fans get to have some fun this summer. Let's have the I-75 Series II.

we'd have to have a FIRST I-75 series :spock:

duncan_idaho
12-11-2012, 07:49 PM
No way Mo our GM can expect a Calixte for a utility player. Nor anything less than a Meyer + more for any of those other pitchers you mentioned.

Kelly or Lynn maybe. For crissakes Lynn won 18 games last year.

I think DJ was talking about throwing in Kelly and Shumaker. Thats too much for me. I think Kelley would be your #2 or #3 starter. He throws in the high 90's and doesn't walk a lot of hitters. He's a top notch talent. And he's the grandson of Machine Gun Kelly. Think of the marketing.:hmmm:

Yeah, I'd expect more to be going St. Louis's way than Calixte in that scenario.

Seems like St. Louis will be in a good spot, with a surplus of young, power righthanders the Cardinals can dangle for a key piece.

With Calixte and Mondesi, the Royals could be in a similar spot (not now, but if both have the seasons the Royals brass think they will). SS and young, controllable SPs are some of the most valuable chips to have in excess. I could see some sort of matchup there down the road, but just a random thought.

La literatura
12-11-2012, 07:50 PM
hey I going all cumbaya

Let's not be that friendly, please.

Dr. Facebook Fever
12-11-2012, 07:50 PM
hey I going all cumbaya and you go all partisan.... where's that damn Derkinger call pic?;)

Are you really going to make me pull out the fact that Orta was then thrown out going first to third on a single by Sundberg... so the call was erased. Orta never mattered. Do I really need to go there again? I didn't think so.

;)

Please excuse my partisanship. 27 dry years and 10 championships behind will do that I guess.

Dr. Facebook Fever
12-11-2012, 07:52 PM
we'd have to have a FIRST I-75 series :spock:

LOL I didn't even catch it.

BigRedChief
12-11-2012, 07:56 PM
Let's not be that friendly, please.But, we are not Rivals. We aren't in the same league. Why cant we all be get along?;)

BigRedChief
12-11-2012, 07:57 PM
LOL I didn't even catch it.Been in Florida too long. Or too many drugs in my younger days.

JASONSAUTO
12-11-2012, 07:59 PM
Wellll it would be hard to have an I-75 series II without the both of us. It's a deal. Win-Win for everyone :toast:

But, seriously both times we won lately, we stunk it up and barely got into the playoffs. We just got hot at the right time. That could happen for the Royals too.

I hate I-75.

Worst highway ever
Posted via Mobile Device

Dr. Facebook Fever
12-11-2012, 07:59 PM
But, we are not Rivals. We aren't in the same league. Why cant we all be get along?;)

Because we're full of jealousy and hatred. Trade us places and then ask us to be nice. Just sayin. Nothing personal.

BigRedChief
12-11-2012, 07:59 PM
Are you really going to make me pull out the fact that Orta was then thrown out going first to third on a single by Sundberg... so the call was erased. Orta never mattered. Do I really need to go there again? I didn't think so.

;)You beat our ass fair and square.
Please excuse my partisanship. 27 dry years and 10 championships behind will do that I guess.No fan base is more deserving. :thumb:

Dr. Facebook Fever
12-11-2012, 08:00 PM
I hate I-75.

Worst highway ever
Posted via Mobile Device

The one in Florida?

Dr. Facebook Fever
12-11-2012, 08:01 PM
You beat our ass fair and square.
No fan base is more deserving. :thumb:

Christ... thanks for ruining a perfectly good dead horse kicking session.

BCD
12-11-2012, 08:03 PM
I hate I-75.

Worst highway ever
Posted via Mobile Device

I've driven the Dayton, Oh to the Florida turnpike so many times over the past few yrs.

Why do you hate it, other than driving through fucking Atlanta

BigRedChief
12-11-2012, 08:06 PM
Christ... thanks for ruining a perfectly good dead horse kicking session.If you have been paying attention I've been giving Royal fans major props for years. How many 100 loss seasons? How many hopeless seasons have you endured? Yet, you still go out to the K and support your team. Still have the passion. Any fan should admire that just from a fan perspective. Respect from a fan to another. No homo.

JASONSAUTO
12-11-2012, 08:06 PM
I've driven the Dayton, Oh to the Florida turnpike so many times over the past few yrs.

Why do you hate it, other than driving through fucking Atlanta
Never mind Dave.

Lol.
Posted via Mobile Device

Dr. Facebook Fever
12-11-2012, 08:12 PM
If you have been paying attention I've been giving Royal fans major props for years. How many 100 loss seasons? How many hopeless seasons have you endured? Yet, you still go out to the K and support your team. Still have the passion. Any fan should admire that just from a fan perspective. Respect from a fan to another. No homo.

Yes I've noticed and it makes it hard to hate you like I'm supposed to. Just another example of Cardinals fans stealing all the fun lol.

JASONSAUTO
12-11-2012, 08:29 PM
On another note. Did anyone think greinke looked totally weird at his press conference, like he was freaking the fuck out.
Posted via Mobile Device

KevB
12-11-2012, 09:07 PM
So the Indians give up one year of Shin Soo-Choo and Tony Sipp and get back Trevor Bauer and Drew Stubbs? Damn. Stubbs isn't great, but he interesting with his athletic ability and defense. Bauer could be fronting their rotation within the next couple of years.

Mr. Laz
12-11-2012, 09:17 PM
If you have been paying attention I've been giving Royal fans major props for years. How many 100 loss seasons? How many hopeless seasons have you endured? Yet, you still go out to the K and support your team. Still have the passion. Any fan should admire that just from a fan perspective. Respect from a fan to another. No homo.
come on, man.

you know it's at least a little homo.



o:-)

alnorth
12-11-2012, 09:19 PM
In the spirit of "oh well, I guess our GM decided to go for it, so lets go for it. Hey, maybe we'll get lucky" This is a fun article. This guy did what I thought about doing last night, but was too lazy.

How the Royals can win the AL Central (http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/31388/how-the-royals-can-win-the-al-central)

I wont paste the whole article, but in the end he's 2 wins short and trying to figure out where to stick them:

Now we need to find two more wins among the position players.

There are a number of ways to do this, such as adding 0.2 WAR to every regular (boring), taking a couple regulars and making them a bit better (also boring), making Francoeur into an almost-average player (meh) or hand all of that WAR to one player (fun!).

I like the last option, even though it’s a bit reckless.

I’m going to give those 2 WAR to Hosmer and make him a 3.3 for 2013.

Hosmer rated 26th in WAR among the 30 players with 300 at-bats who played at least half their games at first base last season. Bumping him to a 3.3 would jump him 20 spots, to the point of being viewed among the better first basemen in the game.

So, Royals fans, that’s what you’re looking at. Unrealistic? Probably.

But here’s the key point: No one said this was going to be easy.

CaliforniaChief
12-11-2012, 09:27 PM
How about raising $100 million and replacing Jeff Francouer with Josh Hamilton?

And then sending Hochevar, a couple of prospects, and a few million dollars for R.A. Dickey and a contract extension?

duncan_idaho
12-11-2012, 09:59 PM
Good lord, the Diamondbacks are just giving talent away. They must have REALLY soured on Trevor Bauer to move him for that package.

So far this offseason, they've traded Chris Young and Trevor Bauer in an attempt to find a shortstop and the best guy they ended up with is a no-slug guy with a career minor-league OPS under .700 (OK, so it's .699). OH, and he doesn't steal bases either. Didi Gregorius (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=gregor003mar)

I realize Young has warts, but he's still a strong defender in CF who is consistently 20/20 when healthy - and who looked like he was figuring it out before he got hurt last season.

And Bauer - despite his quirkiness and MLB struggles - was still dominant in his first run through the minors. Much more so than Danny Hultzen, and nearly as much as Dylan Bundy (probably better, comparing their higher minors numbers).

Makes me wonder what they would have offered up for Christian Colon. Towers has long been a fan of his, as have other guys in that front office. Colon hasn't been overwhelming in the minors so far, but his offensive profile is much better than Gregorius, though he doesn't project as well defensively at SS.

stevenidol
12-11-2012, 10:03 PM
Good lord, the Diamondbacks are just giving talent away. They must have REALLY soured on Trevor Bauer to move him for that package.

So far this offseason, they've traded Chris Young and Trevor Bauer in an attempt to find a shortstop and the best guy they ended up with is a no-slug guy with a career minor-league OPS under .700 (OK, so it's .699). OH, and he doesn't steal bases either. Didi Gregorius (http://www.baseball-reference.com/minors/player.cgi?id=gregor003mar)

I realize Young has warts, but he's still a strong defender in CF who is consistently 20/20 when healthy - and who looked like he was figuring it out before he got hurt last season.

And Bauer - despite his quirkiness and MLB struggles - was still dominant in his first run through the minors. Much more so than Danny Hultzen, and nearly as much as Dylan Bundy (probably better, comparing their higher minors numbers).

Makes me wonder what they would have offered up for Christian Colon. Towers has long been a fan of his, as have other guys in that front office. Colon hasn't been overwhelming in the minors so far, but his offensive profile is much better than Gregorius, though he doesn't project as well defensively at SS.

It would be great if they could put a package together to get Justin Upton and put him in RF.

duncan_idaho
12-11-2012, 10:08 PM
It would be great if they could put a package together to get Justin Upton and put him in RF.

They won't move Upton now, they say. Sitting tight with him.

Makes you wonder if a package of Myers, Odorizzi, Montgomery, Colon and Orlando Calixte might have been enough to pry Upton and Bauer from Arizona, doesn't it? COnsidering they basically gave Bauer away.

mr. tegu
12-11-2012, 10:14 PM
They won't move Upton now, they say. Sitting tight with him.

Makes you wonder if a package of Myers, Odorizzi, Montgomery, Colon and Orlando Calixte might have been enough to pry Upton and Bauer from Arizona, doesn't it? COnsidering they basically gave Bauer away.

Yes it does make me wonder!

Nightfyre
12-11-2012, 10:18 PM
The more I think about the Royal's transactions, the more I begin to think that this is about creating a winning environment for the youngsters. The fact is that they need to have hope going into the season that they can contend. I mean, you could see the pressure that losing was creating on the younger guys last year.

stevenidol
12-11-2012, 10:20 PM
They won't move Upton now, they say. Sitting tight with him.

Makes you wonder if a package of Myers, Odorizzi, Montgomery, Colon and Orlando Calixte might have been enough to pry Upton and Bauer from Arizona, doesn't it? COnsidering they basically gave Bauer away.

The Royals still have a lot in the cupboard and if the D'Backs are looking to dump payroll they may take on Francoeur and/or Hochevar because their contracts would come off the books after the season.

I understand this is pipe dream, but it's fun to speculate.

CaliforniaChief
12-11-2012, 10:21 PM
I'll say this. The players seem more excited than I've ever seen on social media/through the news.

stevenidol
12-11-2012, 10:24 PM
The more I think about the Royal's transactions, the more I begin to think that this is about creating a winning environment for the youngsters. The fact is that they need to have hope going into the season that they can contend. I mean, you could see the pressure that losing was creating on the younger guys last year.

That is the one aspect that the Sabre stats guys can't measure. The human factor of feeling like you are playing for a team that is trying to win and not playing behind a SP that couldn't start on most other teams.

stevenidol
12-11-2012, 10:24 PM
I'll say this. The players seem more excited than I've ever seen on social media/through the news.

David Price was royally pissed too.

Prison Bitch
12-11-2012, 10:25 PM
Everyone of those pitchers have potential to be #1 or #2 starters on a playoff team. They all have 6 years of control left to their "owners". Thats as expensive as trades get.


Of course, Colby Rasmus also projected as a 3-hitter in the bigs. #5 (2009) and #3 (2010) overall in the BBAmerica prospect rankings. Hit 37 doubles & 29 HR as a 20 year old at AA before coming up. And hit 28 doubles & 23 HR as a 23 year old regular in the Cardinals lineup before being dealt.


And what was he dealt for? 1/2 season of Edwin Jackson and Octavio Dotel. So we see how Cardinal "can't miss prospects" do in fact miss. He's been atrocious in Toronto.

tk13
12-11-2012, 10:27 PM
The more I think about the Royal's transactions, the more I begin to think that this is about creating a winning environment for the youngsters. The fact is that they need to have hope going into the season that they can contend. I mean, you could see the pressure that losing was creating on the younger guys last year.

Dayton Moore has pretty much openly said this. One of these interviews he did this week, he told a story from a couple years ago where apparently Greinke asked him why he couldn't trade some of these prospects for major leaguers and make this team better. DM said he didn't think it was time for that yet... but now it is.

Prison Bitch
12-11-2012, 10:30 PM
No way Mo our GM can expect a Calixte for a utility player. :


Well he traded Skip today for a utility player who is not even ranked in the Dodgers top-10:


Top Dodgers' Prospects

1. Zach Lee RHP
2. Corey Seager SS/3B
3. Yasiel Puig CF/RF
4. Joc Pederson CF
5. Chris Reed LHP
6. Blake Smith RF
7. Garrett Gould RHP
8. Alex Castellanos 2B/OF
9. Scott Van Slyke OF/1B
10. Shawn Tolleson RHP

SPATCH
12-11-2012, 10:55 PM
Came here for some info/opinions on the sherrill and wheeler signings... was disappointed

duncan_idaho
12-11-2012, 11:01 PM
Came here for some info/opinions on the sherrill and wheeler signings... was disappointed

Sherrill is a sneaky little signing. Wheeler less so (though bullpen depth is always helpful).

If Sherrill comes back healthy, he could be a really nice LOOGY. They're planning to slot Donnie Joseph there, and I think he works out nicely, but it's good to have insurance at that spot if Joseph's control continues to be a major problem.

KC_Connection
12-11-2012, 11:19 PM
I was thinking of J.P. Ricciardi.
Keith Law doesn't like Ricciardi at all, BTW. He's taken regular shots at him since he left the Jays organization. Doing so hasn't helped his MLB employability, I'm sure.

KC_Connection
12-11-2012, 11:24 PM
I always have a hard time keep him and De Podesta straight. Not sure why.

Brainfart moment.
The two worked together under Beane in Oakland. So was Ricciardi the huge asshole that you talked to or was it still De Podesta?

Fruit Ninja
12-12-2012, 06:22 AM
Well he traded Skip today for a utility player who is not even ranked in the Dodgers top-10:


Top Dodgers' Prospects

1. Zach Lee RHP
2. Corey Seager SS/3B
3. Yasiel Puig CF/RF
4. Joc Pederson CF
5. Chris Reed LHP
6. Blake Smith RF
7. Garrett Gould RHP
8. Alex Castellanos 2B/OF
9. Scott Van Slyke OF/1B
10. Shawn Tolleson RHP

I think another team can trade for Zach Lee, imo, he's going to be really really good.

Puig is the only guy that imo is untradeable. they paid alot for the kid and he has enormous talent. He's gonna be a beast.

duncan_idaho
12-12-2012, 07:07 AM
The two worked together under Beane in Oakland. So was Ricciardi the huge asshole that you talked to or was it still De Podesta?

It was De Podesta, definitely.

It was in the middle of baseball preview season, so I was doing a lot of random calls. Probably why the two blurred together for me.

Great Expectations
12-12-2012, 08:30 AM
Are we still in talks with Dickey? He isn't much more expensive than Hoch is this year and will cost around 12 per year for a 2 year extension.

Toadkiller
12-12-2012, 08:48 AM
They are playing the press conference for our new guys on 610. Starting to get a bit excited. I love their attitudes that is for sure. Ned brought me down when he said he feels like Hoch is going to turn a corner this year.

Great Expectations
12-12-2012, 08:54 AM
They are playing the press conference for our new guys on 610. Starting to get a bit excited.

If you want to get excited read this:

http://www.royalsreview.com/2012/12/11/3754604/2013-win-forecast-it-is-not-about-the-starting-pitching

stevenidol
12-12-2012, 09:11 AM
They are playing the press conference for our new guys on 610. Starting to get a bit excited. I love their attitudes that is for sure. Ned brought me down when he said he feels like Hoch is going to turn a corner this year.

James Shields has a great personality and you can tell he definitely expects to win. Wade Davis seemed like a pretty quiet guy, and Shields even answered a question for him at one point.

I am so excited for this season, and I will definitely be giving the team a standing O when they hit the field on opening day.

Strongside
12-12-2012, 09:29 AM
If you want to get excited read this:

http://www.royalsreview.com/2012/12/11/3754604/2013-win-forecast-it-is-not-about-the-starting-pitching

Woa. This is going to be a fun summer if they get even close to that.

mr. tegu
12-12-2012, 09:32 AM
If you want to get excited read this:

http://www.royalsreview.com/2012/12/11/3754604/2013-win-forecast-it-is-not-about-the-starting-pitching

94-68! Woohoo! He was only 2 games off last season and he actually predicted 2 games worse than what we finished.

BigCatDaddy
12-12-2012, 09:37 AM
94-68! Woohoo! He was only 2 games off last season and he actually predicted 2 games worse than what we finished.

They do that and people will come Mr. Glass, oooh the people will come.

alnorth
12-12-2012, 09:38 AM
Came here for some info/opinions on the sherrill and wheeler signings... was disappointed

I liked it. They are both relief pitchers who are reasonable bounce-back candidates. Both signed cheap minor league "show-me" contracts, there's almost no risk, and now we might have some more bullpen depth.

The Tavaras signing looks pretty useless to me, even if we don't think he'll make the team I see no point in having him in Omaha, either.

alnorth
12-12-2012, 09:46 AM
As of right now, CAIRO (http://www.rlyw.net/index.php/RLYW/comments/cairo_2013_v0.2s_extremely_early_and_completely_useless_2013_projected_mlb_) has us winning the division about 25% of the time and making the playoffs about 40% of the time.

mr. tegu
12-12-2012, 09:49 AM
As of right now, CAIRO (http://www.rlyw.net/index.php/RLYW/comments/cairo_2013_v0.2s_extremely_early_and_completely_useless_2013_projected_mlb_) has us winning the division about 25% of the time and making the playoffs about 40% of the time.

Do those win/loss totals even out the way they are supposed to? As in 2,430 victories and 2,430 losses?

Dartgod
12-12-2012, 09:53 AM
Do those win/loss totals even out the way they are supposed to? As in 2,430 victories and 2,430 losses?

Not quite.

2431-2429

BigCatDaddy
12-12-2012, 09:59 AM
As of right now, CAIRO (http://www.rlyw.net/index.php/RLYW/comments/cairo_2013_v0.2s_extremely_early_and_completely_useless_2013_projected_mlb_) has us winning the division about 25% of the time and making the playoffs about 40% of the time.

Orioles LMAO

alnorth
12-12-2012, 10:06 AM
This year, losing more than 1 or 2 games to the Astros would be a serious setback.

ChiTown
12-12-2012, 10:12 AM
Orioles LMAO

Where is our resident Orioles humper anyway?

siberian khatru
12-12-2012, 10:13 AM
Where is our resident Orioles humper anyway?

You mean KnO'smo?

ChiTown
12-12-2012, 10:14 AM
You mean KnO'smo?

:LOL:

Perfect

BigCatDaddy
12-12-2012, 10:16 AM
This year, losing more than 1 or 2 games to the Astros would be a serious setback.

Meh, stuff happens. How many years to we win/split series with the Cards or Yanks and they still went on to have success.

Great Expectations
12-12-2012, 11:07 AM
As of right now, CAIRO (http://www.rlyw.net/index.php/RLYW/comments/cairo_2013_v0.2s_extremely_early_and_completely_useless_2013_projected_mlb_) has us winning the division about 25% of the time and making the playoffs about 40% of the time.

I'm starting to get very excited for this season. I wonder what our chances of making the playoffs would be if we traded prospects for Dickey? I also bet this doesn't take into account a Duffy and Paulino return for the 2nd half.

mr. tegu
12-12-2012, 11:39 AM
Not quite.

2431-2429

Lets give that extra loss to the Tigers and extra victory to us.

mr. tegu
12-12-2012, 11:45 AM
I'm starting to get very excited for this season. I wonder what our chances of making the playoffs would be if we traded prospects for Dickey? I also bet this doesn't take into account a Duffy and Paulino return for the 2nd half.

This makes me wonder, is it possible losing those two was a blessing in disguise? If they stay healthy we still don't make the playoffs or maybe even come close but with them going down the team was forced to go out and dramatically improve the rotation. If they stay healthy do we really get Santana, Shields, or Guthrie? Probably not. We probably win about 5-8 more games and that is good enough to continue relying on Hoch, Chen, and Mendoza/Teaford/Smith for longer.

ChiefsandO'sfan
12-12-2012, 11:50 AM
As of right now, CAIRO (http://www.rlyw.net/index.php/RLYW/comments/cairo_2013_v0.2s_extremely_early_and_completely_useless_2013_projected_mlb_) has us winning the division about 25% of the time and making the playoffs about 40% of the time.

CAIRO 2013 v0.2’s Extremely Early and Completely Useless 2013 Projected MLB Standings

JASONSAUTO
12-12-2012, 11:53 AM
CAIRO 2013 v0.2’s Extremely Early and Completely Useless 2013 Projected MLB Standings

if i was you i would make sure to point that out. they only had the o's winning 74.

ChiefsandO'sfan
12-12-2012, 11:56 AM
if i was you i would make sure to point that out. they only had the o's winning 74.

Yeah cause they had the O's winning 69 games last year how did that work out?

duncan_idaho
12-12-2012, 12:00 PM
Heard Eiland today saying August/September returns were what he was expecting for Duffy/Paulino. I'm sure that's a pessimistic estimate - Danny thinks he'll be back by June - but good for all of us to keep in mind.

duncan_idaho
12-12-2012, 12:10 PM
Yeah cause they had the O's winning 69 games last year how did that work out?

It didn't.

The Orioles were incredibly good/lucky in one-run games. You outperformed your pythag ratings by 11 games, the most in baseball by far. It was nearly 2x as big a difference as the next-closest team (San Francisco).

16-2 in extra innings. (next closest was 11-5. 20 percent gap in WP%)
29-9 in one run games. (+10 compared to league average)

Those are ratios that are highly unlikely to be repeated. Yes, Baltimore had an excellent bullpen in 2012... but even a LITTLE slippage from that group could blow up a lot of what made Baltimore's

It's perfectly possible Baltimore will win just as much in 2013, but the O's would need to be a much better team to do that. It's also possible the O's are actually BETTER in 2013 than 2012 but have a worse record.

Cephalic Trauma
12-12-2012, 12:28 PM
Yeah cause they had the O's winning 69 games last year how did that work out?

Stick to twitter and the orioles repository thread. You can't even type a grammatically correct sentence.

sedated
12-12-2012, 12:33 PM
No need to throw out legitimate stats, trolls don’t like stats.

I’m beginning to think C&O is really an Indians/Tigers/White Sox fan. Why else spend so much time annoying Royals fans?

Paniero
12-12-2012, 12:45 PM
Stick to twitter and the orioles repository thread. You can't even type a grammatically correct sentence.

Mr. Trauma, where's the subject in your first incomplete sentence? Orioles is a proper noun, yet you didn't capitalize it. It is also possessive in the manner used, but you didn't include the appropriate apostrophe.

Go Royals! GTFO if it isn't a worthy post.

BWillie
12-12-2012, 01:01 PM
Stick to twitter and the orioles repository thread. You can't even type a grammatically correct sentence.

Grammar police coming to lay the hammer down on a message board!

Nothing I hate more than when ppl moan about grammar on a message board. In this day and age, most ppl are posting on a cell phone. As long as they get the point across, who cares if it's grammatically correct. You ain't gettin' graded on an essay here.

Saul Good
12-12-2012, 01:02 PM
Mr. Trauma, where's the subject in your first incomplete sentence? Orioles is a proper noun, yet you didn't capitalize it. It is also possessive in the manner used, but you didn't include the appropriate apostrophe.

Go Royals! GTFO if it isn't a worthy post.

Fail

Silock
12-12-2012, 01:05 PM
Mr. Trauma, where's the subject in your first incomplete sentence? Orioles is a proper noun, yet you didn't capitalize it. It is also possessive in the manner used, but you didn't include the appropriate apostrophe.

Go Royals! GTFO if it isn't a worthy post.

The subject is "you," as the first sentence is a command. That part is grammatically correct.

BigCatDaddy
12-12-2012, 01:13 PM
This thread is starting to already develop a slight case of the AIDS.

tyton75
12-12-2012, 01:13 PM
Man, when Duffy and Paulino are back to normal, our bullpen is going to be DEEP!

JASONSAUTO
12-12-2012, 01:16 PM
It didn't.

The Orioles were incredibly good/lucky in one-run games. You outperformed your pythag ratings by 11 games, the most in baseball by far. It was nearly 2x as big a difference as the next-closest team (San Francisco).

16-2 in extra innings. (next closest was 11-5. 20 percent gap in WP%)
29-9 in one run games. (+10 compared to league average)

Those are ratios that are highly unlikely to be repeated. Yes, Baltimore had an excellent bullpen in 2012... but even a LITTLE slippage from that group could blow up a lot of what made Baltimore's

It's perfectly possible Baltimore will win just as much in 2013, but the O's would need to be a much better team to do that. It's also possible the O's are actually BETTER in 2013 than 2012 but have a worse record.

no need for common sense, he doesnt understand it

Ceej
12-12-2012, 01:20 PM
no need for common sense, he doesnt understand it

Yup. When he gets his shit pushed in he randomly and conveniently disappears.

ChiefsandO'sfan
12-12-2012, 01:21 PM
Yup. When he gets his shit pushed in he randomly and conveniently disappears.

Nope we will see in 2013 what happens. No need to talk about it.

mr. tegu
12-12-2012, 01:24 PM
It was interesting to hear Yost reference All Star weekend last season in the press conference introducing the new guys. That weekend really showed Glass that if he puts something out there, we will come.

Saul Good
12-12-2012, 01:25 PM
It didn't.

The Orioles were incredibly good/lucky in one-run games. You outperformed your pythag ratings by 11 games, the most in baseball by far. It was nearly 2x as big a difference as the next-closest team (San Francisco).

16-2 in extra innings. (next closest was 11-5. 20 percent gap in WP%)
29-9 in one run games. (+10 compared to league average)

Those are ratios that are highly unlikely to be repeated. Yes, Baltimore had an excellent bullpen in 2012... but even a LITTLE slippage from that group could blow up a lot of what made Baltimore's

It's perfectly possible Baltimore will win just as much in 2013, but the O's would need to be a much better team to do that. It's also possible the O's are actually BETTER in 2013 than 2012 but have a worse record.

You're going to need to trim this down to 140 characters if you expect him to understand it.

duncan_idaho
12-12-2012, 01:30 PM
You're going to need to trim this down to 140 characters if you expect him to understand it.

And get Danny Knobler to re-tweet it, right? Then it's legit...

Ceej
12-12-2012, 02:19 PM
Nope we will see in 2013 what happens. No need to talk about it.

You post like how I imagine a caveman would.

Prison Bitch
12-12-2012, 03:08 PM
It didn't.

The Orioles were incredibly good/lucky in one-run games. You outperformed your pythag ratings by 11 games, the most in baseball by far. It was nearly 2x as big a difference as the next-closest team (San Francisco).

16-2 in extra innings. (next closest was 11-5. 20 percent gap in WP%)
29-9 in one run games. (+10 compared to league average)

Those are ratios that are highly unlikely to be repeated. Yes, Baltimore had an excellent bullpen in 2012... but even a LITTLE slippage from that group could blow up a lot of what made Baltimore's

It's perfectly possible Baltimore will win just as much in 2013, but the O's would need to be a much better team to do that. It's also possible the O's are actually BETTER in 2013 than 2012 but have a worse record.


Spot on. Math is very clear that the O's are in trouble if they don't improve their actual team.

alnorth
12-12-2012, 03:45 PM
CAIRO 2013 v0.2’s Extremely Early and Completely Useless 2013 Projected MLB Standings

Thats really only because the rosters arent set yet. Free agents need to be signed, players traded, they usually wait till spring training to release computer simulations. It doesn't mean CAIRO's useless, just that its too early because other teams aren't set yet.

Cephalic Trauma
12-12-2012, 05:07 PM
You post like how I imagine a caveman would.

ROFL

Perfectly characterized

RockChalk
12-12-2012, 05:52 PM
This thread is starting to already develop a slight case of the AIDS.

Right about when C&O's showed up swinging his little infected dick around

lewdog
12-12-2012, 06:56 PM
Stoked to be living here for Royals Spring Training games! I know one poster on here makes the visit down here but can't remember who it is??? I thought tickets would be a bit cheaper than $20 a pop but I will be going to a handful of games anyway.

Saturday, Feb. 23 2:05 pm Rangers
Monday, Feb. 25 2:05 pm D-backs
Wednesday, Feb. 27 2:05 pm Brewers
Friday, March 1 2:05 pm Reds
Saturday, March 2 2:05 pm Giants
Tuesday, March 5 2:05 pm Athletics
Thursday, March 7 2:05 pm Mariners
Friday, March 8 2:05 pm Indians
Sunday, March 10 3:05 pm Angels
Wednesday, March 13 3:05 pm Mariners
Friday, March 15 3:05 pm Padres
Sunday, March 17 3:05 pm White Sox
Tuesday, March 19 3:05 pm Rockies
Wednesday, March 20 3:05 pm Dodgers
Saturday, March 23 3:05 pm D-backs
Monday, March 25 8:10 pm Dodgers
Wednesday, March 27 8:10 pm Cubs
Friday, March 29 2:05 pm Indians

ImAWalkingCorpse
12-12-2012, 07:02 PM
Why is the Orioles fan in this thread?