WSJ: Trading for a Quarterback Doesn't Really Help

[DaKCMan AP]

http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/OB-WX997_COUNT0_G_20130403222105.jpg

Trading for a Quarterback Doesn't Really Help

Trading for quarterbacks has been quite popular this off-season, but are NFL teams being wise to do so? Recent history suggests otherwise.

This week's trades of Carson Palmer to the Arizona Cardinals and of Matt Flynn (pictured, far right) to the Oakland Raiders brought the total of projected starters acquired via trade to three this off-season, along with Kansas City's Alex Smith.

Notable quarterbacks such as John Elway and Brett Favre were traded by the teams that drafted them, before they had their greatest successes. But if Palmer, Flynn and Smith succeed in their first seasons with their new teams, it would buck a pretty clear trend in recent NFL history.

Since 1994, there have been 25 trades involving quarterbacks who started at least eight games for their new team the following season. Only two led their new teams to the postseason in the first year—Brad Johnson (1999 Redskins) and Steve McNair (2006 Ravens).

Some quarterbacks were successful, but struggled in their first season in a new city. Matt Hasselbeck went on to win five postseason games with the Seattle Seahawks and lead the team to Super Bowl XL. Trent Green had some success following a trade to the Kansas City Chiefs, and Matt Schaub and Jay Cutler remain upper-echelon quarterbacks with the Houston Texans and Chicago Bears, respectively, but have only three combined playoff victories with their new teams.

The failures of traded quarterbacks have far outweighed the successes, especially with over-the-hill QBs such as Brett Favre, who struggled down the stretch in his one season with the New York Jets, and Donovan McNabb, who struggled in his only season with the Washington Redskins, and later with the Minnesota Vikings. Both Palmer and Flynn were last traded within the past two seasons—and in both cases, the teams that traded for them gave up more than they got, while not achieving the results they were expecting.

—Eric Edholm


http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324020504578399202039216598.html?mod=djemITP_h

[007]

I should start reading this paper. They make a lot of sense.

[blaise]

It's not like drafting QBs is always some great success either.

[007]

It's not like drafting QBs is always some great success either.

Chiefs would be a great poster child for that article though.

[blaise]

Chiefs would be a great poster child for that article though.

Yeah, trading for a QB can be a fix. It shouldn't be a trend spanning multiple decades.

[Pitt Gorilla]

Green Bay traded FOR Favre.

[DaKCMan AP]

Green Bay traded FOR Favre.

And, 16 years later, Green Bay traded Favre.

[Deberg_1990]

heh, love this line



Matt Schaub and Jay Cutler remain upper-echelon quarterbacks with the Houston Texans and Chicago Bears, respectively

[DaKCMan AP]

heh, love this line

It's the true-fan portion of the article.

[Fat Elvis]

To be fair, using their methodology, drafting a QB in the first round really doesn't help either. Only 7 out of 48 QBs drafted in the first round since 1994 lead their teams to the playoffs in their first year. Two of those were last year, Luck and RG3, which everyone is saying are once in a generation QBs. Otherwise, '08 is the only other standout year when both Ryan and Flacco led their teams to the playoffs.

Before folks start their bitchfest and give themselves an aneurysm, understand I am only using the apparent methodology used by the article. I'm not saying that first round QBs don't develop into franchise QBs (ie the Mannings); I'm just using the same criteria as the article when they say that trading for a QB doesn't really help. Using their criteria, drafting a QB in the first round doesn't really help either.

[DaKCMan AP]

To be fair, using their methodology, drafting a QB in the first round really doesn't help either. Only 7 out of 48 QBs drafted in the first round since 1994 lead their teams to the playoffs in their first year. Two of those were last year, Luck and RG3, which everyone is saying are once in a generation QBs. Otherwise, '08 is the only other standout year when both Ryan and Flacco led their teams to the playoffs.

Before folks start their bitchfest and give themselves an aneurysm, understand I am only using the apparent methodology used by the article. I'm not saying that first round QBs don't develop into franchise QBs (ie the Mannings); I'm just using the same criteria as the article when they say that trading for a QB doesn't really help. Using their criteria, drafting a QB in the first round doesn't really help either.

How many of those 48 QBs drafted in the 1st round started at least 8 games for their teams during their rookie season?

[ndws]

lets revolutionize the game and play without a QB

[loochy]

lets revolutionize the game and play without a QB

trade for tebow?

[DaKCMan AP]

lets revolutionize the game and play without a QB

We've tried that the past 7 years. Doesn't work.

[BlackHelicopters]

Wow. Water is wet. The QB lottery is part luck, part coaching, part talent, part skill, part intelligence, part having a good defense, etc.............Thanks Wall Street Journal.

[el borracho]

Chiefs fans of the last 30 years: Duh

[Fat Elvis]

How many of those 48 QBs drafted in the 1st round started at least 8 games for their teams during their rookie season?

Most of them.

[KC_Lee]

So basically it boils down to the fact that real life is not like Madden?

Shocking...:eek:

[RealSNR]

<iframe width="420" height="315" src="http://www.youtube.com/embed/Kk-rZsZnrQs" frameborder="0" allowfullscreen></iframe>

[Ace Gunner]

lets revolutionize the game and play without a QB

after four plus seasons of no QB, I'm a firm believer you are an idiot

[Dayze]

Since 1994, there have been 25 trades involving quarterbacks who started at least eight games for their new team the following season. Only two led their new teams to the postseason in the first year—Brad Johnson (1999 Redskins) and Steve McNair (2006 Ravens).

LMAO
Go Chiefs.

[philfree]

This is great info and all but the deals been done for a while now so what's the point?

[Ace Gunner]

Since 1994, there have been 25 trades involving quarterbacks who started at least eight games for their new team the following season. Only two led their new teams to the postseason in the first year—Brad Johnson (1999 Redskins) and Steve McNair (2006 Ravens).

LMAO
Go Chiefs.

I have not claimed this trade will result in a championship, but instead I believe the Chiefs have been so far removed from pro football reality, this move at least pulls them back into orbit.

I was listening to local radio this morning. They were discussing the Royals and Parkins said the team needs to "put the ball in play" offensively -- to "play small ball" and "get something going".

Imo, that is very much the problem with both franchises in KC.

Billy Martin's Yanks were classic small ballers that got it going, then got the big guns cleaning it up (Reggie J). Same with the Reds. Same with the Curt Flood Cards...

In football, Montana and his WR's would chew you up underneath with quick outs & slants. Eventually, they got your defense so crossed up, they hit some big ones and you were toast.

I don't understand why these franchises don't know how to win, but to me the lacking value in starting small is at the center of it.

[Coogs]

So is better trade for a Guard? How about a LB deal? Or CB? (how many Super Bowls have Denver won since they traded for Champ anyway?)

[Hammock Parties]

But guys, Eli Manning was traded

[Ace Gunner]

also, imo wins this season depend more on the core players of this chiefs team. DJ, Hali, Flowers, Berry, Bowe, Jamaal -- these players need to bring a lunch to work.

Montana didn't get it done here.

[Hammock Parties]

also, imo wins this season depend more on the core players of this chiefs team. DJ, Hali, Flowers, Berry, Bowe, Jamaal -- these players need to bring a lunch to work.


Yeah because those guys all sucked last year.

[Dayze]

when it comes to QBs, be it draft or FA, the Chiefs have proven over and over and over, to be completely retarded in their evaluation.

The days of tossing in a scrub QB/game manager and thinking you have any chance at the Super Bowl are gone. A team is just spinning its wheels otherwise.

Defense doesn't win championships; offense does.

[MatriculatingHank]

Teams win Super Bowls. Not QBs..
Just ask Tom Brady (and Gisele)

[Sorter]

Teams win Super Bowls. Not QBs..
Just ask Tom Brady (and Gisele)

http://img.gawkerassets.com/img/180qn79k8yfgtgif/k-bigpic.gif

[RunKC]

These guys say hi.

http://t3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcS3Byq05IN6FbXUvDmjYvstEn2actFuaBcWWb2xEi8LXfteOA9gcg

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-86dvaeHl8SA/UBrpHyniN2I/AAAAAAAAAtI/IbMLrk-sUMU/s1600/image.jpg

http://t3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRjCSXOGvSk6QpnZ5KKE3V7XEJVWqrIjFgHDadJdmIscdkrwBYYhQ

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-tcu9uirAvME/TfwHG_R2gOI/AAAAAAAAAPw/Nz-nN-lVhUg/s1600/John+Elway.jpg

http://cdn.bleacherreport.net/images_root/slides/photos/000/154/138/bradjohnson_display_image.jpg?1273154694

And these QB's were traded from the teams that drafted them originally and then went on to have success.

http://www.profootballhof.com/assets/Dawson_Len_Action_180-220.jpg

http://cdn.bleacherreport.net/images_root/slides/photos/000/411/436/Jim_Plunkett_display_image.jpg?1285405559

And there are other QB's like Fran Tarkenton and Bobby Lane who were also traded and had success, not to mention Phillip Rivers, even though he hasn't won a SB, but I'm just too lazy to put them up.

[Sweet Daddy Hate]

Yes lets find a way too keep defending the regurgitation of traded QB's to KC!/dumbass true fan
Posted via Mobile Device

[keg in kc]

At least we know where "RunKC" is running: to the desert. To bury his head.

[Dayze]

"since 1994"....

[Sweet Daddy Hate]

At least we know where "RunKC" is running: to the desert. To bury his head.

mods should change his name to "Trusting The Process".
Posted via Mobile Device

[Ace Gunner]

Yeah because those guys all sucked last year.

it must be cool to live in a on/off conditional world. not.

[Fat Elvis]

Yes lets find a way too keep defending the regurgitation of traded QB's to KC!/dumbass true fan
Posted via Mobile Device

LOL, an article gets debunked and the skeptics are are the dumbasses....

[Hammock Parties]

it must be cool to live in a on/off conditional world. not.

Those guys have all played pretty well for the duration of their careers.

Alex Smith has not.

If this team sucks it will be because of Alex Smith.

[KCDC]

The difference is that Kolb, Palmer and Flynn were acquired for very little consideration surrendered. So, even if they prove to be useless, it cost the team nothing but salary.

With the Chiefs, we gave up the equivalent of a low first round pick. So, Alex failure will have double the sting (as well as a triple sting in passing up drafting a good QB as well potentially).

[RunKC]

mods should change his name to "Trusting The Process".
Posted via Mobile Device

Idk how you can speak to people when Geno's sweet dick is rammed down your throat at all times.

[AlexSmithDynasty]

The difference is that Kolb, Palmer and Flynn were acquired for very little consideration surrendered. So, even if they prove to be useless, it cost the team nothing but salary.

With the Chiefs, we gave up the equivalent of a low first round pick. So, Alex failure will have double the sting (as well as a triple sting in passing up drafting a good QB as well potentially).

How is a 2nd round pick equivalent of a low 1st round pick? By it's very definition it is a pick in the 2nd round not the first. High second rounder does not equal 1st rounder.

[Ace Gunner]

Those guys have all played pretty well for the duration of their careers.

Alex Smith has not.

If this team sucks it will be because of Alex Smith.

Bowe had 3 TD's last year. Hali was mediocre at best. I could go on but I keep in mind what a fucking homer you are. shut it.

[RNR]

Keep doubting Matt Flynn!

[Hammock Parties]

Bowe had 3 TD's last year. Hali was mediocre at best.

And neither of them were the reason we went 2-14.

You are obtuse, and probably trolling.

[Setsuna]

I stopped reading at Jay Cutler and Schaub being "upper echelon" QBs. Both suck.

[Ace Gunner]

And neither of them were the reason we went 2-14.

You are obtuse, and probably trolling.

you fucking idiot. this is the ultimate team sport. sport.

[Kaepernick]

http://si.wsj.net/public/resources/images/OB-WX997_COUNT0_G_20130403222105.jpg



http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324020504578399202039216598.html?mod=djemITP_h

Those bad trades say a lot more about the teams than they do about the strategy of trading for a QB.

[Kaepernick]

lets revolutionize the game and play without a QB

So you are saying to use Tebow?

[Molitoth]

So you are saying to use Tebow?

Colin Kline will do.

[Fat Elvis]

The difference is that Kolb, Palmer and Flynn were acquired for very little consideration surrendered. So, even if they prove to be useless, it cost the team nothing but salary.

With the Chiefs, we gave up the equivalent of a low first round pick. So, Alex failure will have double the sting (as well as a triple sting in passing up drafting a good QB as well potentially).

People who keep saying this must have the "equivalent" of a high school education.

[Bump]

Brad Johnson was traded to the Buccs right? Well there you go! TO DA SHIP

[cdcox]

To be fair, using their methodology, drafting a QB in the first round really doesn't help either. Only 7 out of 48 QBs drafted in the first round since 1994 lead their teams to the playoffs in their first year. Two of those were last year, Luck and RG3, which everyone is saying are once in a generation QBs. Otherwise, '08 is the only other standout year when both Ryan and Flacco led their teams to the playoffs.

Before folks start their bitchfest and give themselves an aneurysm, understand I am only using the apparent methodology used by the article. I'm not saying that first round QBs don't develop into franchise QBs (ie the Mannings); I'm just using the same criteria as the article when they say that trading for a QB doesn't really help. Using their criteria, drafting a QB in the first round doesn't really help either.

Well the whole idea of trading for a VET is that they are supposed to be already developed and allow you to win NOW. Rookies always need to be developed to one extent or another.

[el borracho]

These guys say hi.

http://t3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcS3Byq05IN6FbXUvDmjYvstEn2actFuaBcWWb2xEi8LXfteOA9gcg

http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-86dvaeHl8SA/UBrpHyniN2I/AAAAAAAAAtI/IbMLrk-sUMU/s1600/image.jpg

http://t3.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:ANd9GcRjCSXOGvSk6QpnZ5KKE3V7XEJVWqrIjFgHDadJdmIscdkrwBYYhQ

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-tcu9uirAvME/TfwHG_R2gOI/AAAAAAAAAPw/Nz-nN-lVhUg/s1600/John+Elway.jpg

http://cdn.bleacherreport.net/images_root/slides/photos/000/154/138/bradjohnson_display_image.jpg?1273154694

And these QB's were traded from the teams that drafted them originally and then went on to have success.

http://www.profootballhof.com/assets/Dawson_Len_Action_180-220.jpg

http://cdn.bleacherreport.net/images_root/slides/photos/000/411/436/Jim_Plunkett_display_image.jpg?1285405559

And there are other QB's like Fran Tarkenton and Bobby Lane who were also traded and had success, not to mention Phillip Rivers, even though he hasn't won a SB, but I'm just too lazy to put them up.
Most of those guys were traded before any significant playing time. Gannon is the only QB I can think of (in modern times) to have significant success after losing his job elsewhere. Alex Smith has years of mediocre play on his resume and lost his job. It is incredibly unlikely that he will all-of-a-sudden become the franchise QB that we all want.

[TEX]

Most of those guys were traded before any significant playing time. Gannon is the only QB I can think of (in modern times) to have significant success after losing his job elsewhere. Alex Smith has years of mediocre play on his resume and lost his job. It is incredibly unlikely that he will all-of-a-sudden become the franchise QB that we all want.

Drew Brees...

[el borracho]

Drew Brees...

I guess we would have to define "significant playing time". IIRC, Brees played only a few seasons in San Diego and then got hurt. Brees didn't bust, the Chargers gave up on him too early and I'm guessing they would do that differently if they had the chance.

[TEX]

I guess we would have to define "significant playing time". IIRC, Brees played only a few seasons in San Diego and then got hurt. Brees didn't bust, the Chargers gave up on him too early and I'm guessing they would do that differently if they had the chance.

Yeah - but your point is still valid. Brees, like Gannon, is the exception.

[philfree]

I guess a question could be when was the last time a QB was benched and then traded when he was leading the league in QB rating? When was the last time a QB who had put up a 97 rating in his last 30 games traded period?

I'm not in love with Alex Smith but this situation is a little unusual. I don't hate Alex either it's not his fault he was traded but at this point I'm going to root for the guy.

[Jakemall]

Logic Fail by the article.

If trading for a qb has more failures than successes then teams shouldn't trade for QBs.

Let's follow the logic to drafting.

If drafting for a qb has more failures than successes then teams shouldn't draft QBs.

Yeah...that works.


By the way, Brett Farve wasn't drafted by Green Bay...and Steve Young was with the Bucs before the 9ers. You don't do these things because they always work...you do it because there's a chance.

[TEX]

I guess a question could be when was the last time a QB was benched and then traded when he was leading the league in QB rating? When was the last time a QB who had put up a 97 rating in his last 30 games traded period?

I'm not in love with Alex Smith but this situation is a little unusual. I don't hate Alex either it's not his fault he was traded but at this point I'm going to root for the guy.

This.

[The Franchise]

Drew Brees...

Wasn't traded. Therefore isn't a part of this discussion.

[The Franchise]

Logic Fail by the article.

If trading for a qb has more failures than successes then teams shouldn't trade for QBs.

Let's follow the logic to drafting.

If drafting for a qb has more failures than successes then teams shouldn't draft QBs.

Yeah...that works.


By the way, Brett Farve wasn't drafted by Green Bay...and Steve Young was with the Bucs before the 9ers. You don't do these things because they always work...you do it because there's a chance.

Did Brett Favre play 7-8 seasons with the Falcons before being traded? No.

How about Steve Young with the Bucs? Oh....he didn't?

[Rausch]

Did Brett Favre play 7-8 seasons with the Falcons before being traded? No.

How about Steve Young with the Bucs? Oh....he didn't?

I don't believe that was the criteria.

The one huge difference here is the ability of a HC/GM to EVALUATE TALENT.

The guy that traded for Young also drafted well.

The guy that traded for Favre also drafted well.

IT ALL FALLS ON THE ABILITY OF THE FRANCHISE TO EVALUATE TALNET...

[philfree]

I don't believe that was the criteria.

The one huge difference here is the ability of a HC/GM to EVALUATE TALENT.

The guy that traded for Young also drafted well.

The guy that traded for Favre also drafted well.

IT ALL FALLS ON THE ABILITY OF THE FRANCHISE TO EVALUATE TALNET...

Nhu-u you have to take a shot and play the odds so you can at least say you tried!

[Rausch]

Nhu-u you have to take a shot and play the odds so you can at least say you tried!

I'm guilty of that...fair 'nuff...

[philfree]

I'm guilty of that...fair 'nuff...

I eally didn't mean you. I thought the bolded part of waht you posted was dead on. It's all about getting the evaluations right and getting those players or player/QB in this case.

[philfree]

I'm sick of peole posting the logic for us to draft a QB. It's beyond redundant and besides that posting about here is like singing to the choir.

[RealSNR]

I'm sick of peole posting the logic for us to draft a QB. It's beyond redundant and besides that posting about here is like singing to the choir.

We do it because guys like Black Bob happen.

And this guy:

Logic Fail by the article.

If trading for a qb has more failures than successes then teams shouldn't trade for QBs.

Let's follow the logic to drafting.

If drafting for a qb has more failures than successes then teams shouldn't draft QBs.

Yeah...that works.


By the way, Brett Farve wasn't drafted by Green Bay...and Steve Young was with the Bucs before the 9ers. You don't do these things because they always work...you do it because there's a chance.

[loochy]

Logic Fail by the article.

If trading for a qb has more failures than successes then teams shouldn't trade for QBs.

Let's follow the logic to drafting.

If drafting for a qb has more failures than successes then teams shouldn't draft QBs.

Yeah...that works.


By the way, Brett Farve wasn't drafted by Green Bay...and Steve Young was with the Bucs before the 9ers. You don't do these things because they always work...you do it because there's a chance.

You are gay.

[TEX]

Wasn't traded. Therefore isn't a part of this discussion.

FYI - Rich Gannon was brought up. Therefore it became part of the discussion. Capisce?

[warpaint*]

I just hope this regime is quick to cut ties when this turd proves his stink. Outside of that what's done is done. Well that and draft one one later this month. ;)