When should Dallas have given Denver the TD?

[DaFace]

This came up in the game thread, and many of us were screaming that Dallas should have just let Denver score. Here's proof.

http://www.advancednflstats.com/2013/10/when-should-dal-have-allowed-den-to.html

When Should DAL Have Allowed DEN to Score a TD?
By Brian Burke

Once Demaryius Thomas crossed the line to gain at the DAL 14 yard line with 1:50 to play, the DAL defense should have intentionally allowed the TD. With 2 timeouts and 1:40+ to play, they would have had a better chance of winning than allowing DEN to choke the life out of them and kick an easy FG for the win.

That's based on this analysis of when teams should intentionally allow a TD when tied.

Aften Thomas gained a 1st down, DAL correctly called a timeout setting up a 1st down and 10 at the DAL 11 with 1:49 to play. This chart illustrates DAL's chances of winning based on field position and time remaining with 1 timeout left.

http://i.imgur.com/kwK50nr.png

The strategy of forcing a FG is highlighted in red. It's worth about a 0.01 or 0.02 WP. The strategy of allowing the TD is highlighted in blue. It's worth about a 0.12 WP. Getting the ball back with all four downs and 1:45 to force overtime isn't where you want to find yourself, but it's twelve times better than hoping for a FG miss.

DEN appeared to be completely cognizant that they had DAL in the field goal choke hold, but only after the timeout while Manning and Fox had time to think. I'm not sure Demaryius Thomas would have been so alert in the midst of play. The instinct for the goal line is too great--see Bradshaw comma Ahmad in Super Bowl XLVI. I don't have access to the tape, so it's not certain if that was even a possibility--but that's when DAL should have been prepared to allow the TD.

The right thing for the DAL defense to do is to instruct their players prior to the snap on 1st down and 10 from the DAL 24 with 1:57 to play: If DEN gains a 1st down, miss the tackle.

DEN was able to gain another 1st down, which was the absolute worst possible outcome for DAL. That final 1st down made it a no-brainer, and DEN milked the clock and kicked the FG for the win.

[notorious]

Yes.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

It's hard to overstate how little NFL coaches know about game management and win probability.

[007]

The real question would be if said team would purposely NOT score when a team is letting them score.

[Bugeater]

Idiot said DEN twice when it should have been DAL. Very confusing.

[listopencil]

Yeah, Manning was yelling back and forth with Moreno and the coaches during that whole sequence after the time out. It looked to me like Manning was telling Moreno not to go into the end zone, and Moreno was flailing around going "WTF?" I recall the Green Bay coach saying that they let TD score at the end of Super Bowl 32 for this reason.

[Bwana]

I was ranting about this during the game. At least they would have had a shot if Denver would have scored the TD. After the 1st down, they were hosed.

[DaFace]

Idiot said DEN twice when it should have been DAL. Very confusing.

You're right. He's clearly a statistician - not a journalist.

I corrected them in the OP even though it's not my article. :)

['Hamas' Jenkins]

I was ranting about this during the game. At least they would have had a shot if Denver would have scored the TD. After the 1st down, they were hosed.

Funny thing is that this has been known in basketball since...well forever, but is totally lost upon football coaches.

[CaliforniaChief]

Agree with Hamas...I mean, you're using time outs so you have the opportunity to talk it over with the defense and get everyone on the same page.

At that point, you've got to be thinking about giving up the TD and already considering the possibility of going for two if/when you score.

With all the coaches on a sideline handling mechanics/coaching stuff, how a head coach doesn't just obsess about this kind of stuff is beyond me.

[DaFace]

The real question would be if said team would purposely NOT score when a team is letting them score.

Yeah, Manning was yelling back and forth with Moreno and the coaches during that whole sequence after the time out. It looked to me like Manning was telling Moreno not to go into the end zone, and Moreno was flailing around going "WTF?" I recall the Green Bay coach saying that they let TD score at the end of Super Bowl 32 for this reason.

Yeah, it's entirely possible that Denver knew this too and would have intentionally gone down at the 1 anyway. Manning's certainly smart enough to figure that out.

[listopencil]

Yeah, it's entirely possible that Denver knew this too and would have intentionally gone down at the 1 anyway. Manning's certainly smart enough to figure that out.

I don't know if Moreno is. That might be why Manning was flopping to kill time instead of handing it to him.

[FloridaMan88]

Yes although it probably wouldn't have mattered.

Had Dallas gotten the ball back, Romo would have screwed it up.

Today's game was vintage Romo... lots of stats, lots of nice #'s but in the crucial drive at the end he throws an INT.

[Bwana]

I don't know if Moreno is. That might be why Manning was flopping to kill time instead of handing it to him.


Yeah that was one hell of a flop, I though you guy brought Ed back. :D

[listopencil]

Yeah that was one hell of a flop, I though you guy brought Ed back. :D

Pretty fly for a white guy.

[Rudy tossed tigger's salad]

It was just bad luck. The probability of giving up the first down at the 1 is pretty damn low. That basically never happens. Hard to figure out the point when the first down was made on that 3rd down. I was pissed when they originally marked the ball at the 11. I thought he got to the 10 and it'd be 1st and goal.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

An even more interesting analysis is this:

Assume you score the TD to tie late.

You then have the following considerations:

1) Win the toss (50%)
2) Lose the toss (50%)
3) Score a TD if you win the toss (X%)
4) Kick a FG if you win the toss (Y%)
5) Stop them from scoring at all if you lose the toss (Z%)
6) Stop them from scoring a TD if you lose the toss (T%)
7) Score on any one possession (S%)

Would Dallas have been better off going for two if they scored than to risk going to OT?

[O.city]

An even more interesting analysis is this:

Assume you score the TD to tie late.

You then have the following considerations:

1) Win the toss (50%)
2) Lose the toss (50%)
3) Score a TD if you win the toss (X%)
4) Kick a FG if you win the toss (Y%)
5) Stop them from scoring at all if you lose the toss (Z%)
6) Stop them from scoring a TD if you lose the toss (T%)
7) Score on any one possession (S%)

Would Dallas have been better off going for two if they scored than to risk going to OT?

Buddy of mine is a cowboys fan and we talked about that after the game. Being at home, I think I'd have went for the win because whoever won't he toss was winning the game.

I'd rather have it in my own hands

[Quesadilla Joe]

Peyton said after the game that he specifically told Moreno not to score on the 3rd down conversion.

[Demonpenz]

People always take that shit to Overtime, but I remember one time Larry Johnson being all like....fuck the raiders and he scored a two point try and ended that shit letting chiefs fans smoke meth and listen to 12 hours of Molly Hatchet for the rest of the week.

[listopencil]

An even more interesting analysis is this:

Assume you score the TD to tie late.

You then have the following considerations:

1) Win the toss (50%)
2) Lose the toss (50%)
3) Score a TD if you win the toss (X%)
4) Kick a FG if you win the toss (Y%)
5) Stop them from scoring at all if you lose the toss (Z%)
6) Stop them from scoring a TD if you lose the toss (T%)
7) Score on any one possession (S%)

Would Dallas have been better off going for two if they scored than to risk going to OT?

I think you have to go for the tie. I did see Shanny do that against the Chargers (Cutler fumbles and Hocule calls it an incomplete pass, Denver scores potentially game tying TD) and I was freaking out. Yelling at the TV, calling him the stupidest arrogant fuck I'd ever seen, wishing death upon him and his family...then they made it and he was a ballsy genius again.

[Deberg_1990]

An even more interesting analysis is this:

Assume you score the TD to tie late.

You then have the following considerations:

1) Win the toss (50%)
2) Lose the toss (50%)
3) Score a TD if you win the toss (X%)
4) Kick a FG if you win the toss (Y%)
5) Stop them from scoring at all if you lose the toss (Z%)
6) Stop them from scoring a TD if you lose the toss (T%)
7) Score on any one possession (S%)

Would Dallas have been better off going for two if they scored than to risk going to OT?

Heh....no coach would ever do that. Do you risk everything on ONE single play....or do you risk going to OT where the game could be decided by several different plays?

[Bwana]

People always take that shit to Overtime, but I remember one time Larry Johnson being all like....**** the raiders and he scored a two point try and ended that shit letting chiefs fans smoke meth and listen to 12 hours of Molly Hatchet for the rest of the week.

Well that and it gave Larry a chance to get home earlier to whip up on his old lady.

[Rudy tossed tigger's salad]

Also, herp derp. It was from the 11, Derpy derp It's much harder to get a first down without scoring from the 11 than from three yards back. You play for the stop in that case. Just bad luck.

Edit: I can't read. Still don't agree. Would rather have a minute and no timeouts down 3.

[listopencil]

Heh....no coach would ever do that. Do you risk everything on ONE single play....or do you risk going to OT where the game could be decided by several different plays?

Shanahan.

[O.city]

I'd have let them score the first play after the pick and saved my timeouts

[DaFace]

Heh....no coach would ever do that. Do you risk everything on ONE single play....or do you risk going to OT where the game could be decided by several different plays?

http://i.imgur.com/d3yXGP7.jpg

[Demonpenz]

Leeerrrrrry Jenkinsssss

[DaFace]

Oh, and in a shootout game like that, I'd go for two.

[lcarus]

Peyton said after the game that he specifically told Moreno not to score on the 3rd down conversion.

Yeah that's what it looked like to me as well. Actually, specifically it looked like he said "Our defense is hot fucking trash. You score on this play and we're screwed"

[Lex Luthor]

Also, herp derp. It was from the 11, Derpy derp It's much harder to get a first down without scoring from the 11 than from three yards back.
Nothing personal, but if I were running this forum I'd ban anyone who puts "herp derp" in their posts.

[Rudy tossed tigger's salad]

Nothing personal, but if I were running this forum I'd ban anyone who puts "herp derp" in their posts.

Ok.

[Demonpenz]

glad he put nothing personal...makes it much better.

[Bugeater]

I love comic books herp derp.

[Ceej]

It looked like Moreno flopped at the goal line after he got the first down.

His smile after the fact made me believe it even more.

['Hamas' Jenkins]

Heh....no coach would ever do that. Do you risk everything on ONE single play....or do you risk going to OT where the game could be decided by several different plays?

You do what gives you the greatest chance of winning. If the odds of converting a two point conversion are higher than the odds for the above listed scenario, you go for two.

[Chiefshrink]

It's hard to overstate how little NFL coaches know about game management and win probability.

Come on Hamas you know as well as I do Jerry calls the shots:D

Jerry f'd up !!